Now, you might be thinking to yourself that this is a little crazy. I'm only breaking down ten MVP candidates, and I choose a rookie to be listed alongside the likes of LeBron, Curry, Westbrook, etc (more on those guys and the 'etc' soon)? But this is not just any rookie, this is Karl Anthony-Towns.
The Minnesota big man dominated his class (yes, even Kristaps) en route to a unanimous Rookie of the Year campaign last season. Playing all 82 games, Towns averaged 18.7 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks per game while posting 54.3/34.1/81.1 shooting splits (FG% / 3P% / FT%) -- good for a borderline-top-10 PER (Player Efficiency Rating) of 22.59.
Towns, only 20, already has the tools to score down low, run the pick-and-roll, run the floor in transition, or step outside and be a threat from downtown. It's this unique offensive skillset, equipped so early in his career, that, when coupled with his elite defensive prowess, could in fact make the Timberwolf a once-in-a-generation player.
"Okay, that sounds great and all, and I'm sure Towns will be winning MVPs five-plus years from now," you say "but how could a 20-year-old possibly become MVP next year? Derrick Rose was the youngest MVP ever back in 2011-12, and even he was 22 years and six months." Fair point.
However, Towns will turn 21 on November 15, twenty days after the regular season begins. And a young, star big man being considered an MVP candidate is nothing new -- in fact, many of us did so just a year or two ago.
Pelicans superstar big man Anthony Davis, now 23, was hyped as just that going into the 2014-15 season, when he was about the same age Towns is now. The two bigs at 21 were/are/will be pretty comparable -- Davis was just coming off a sophomore year where he posted a fourth-best PER of 26.54, and a rookie year before that in 2012-13 of a 15th-best 21.80. Recall that Towns' rookie PER last year was a 22.59, good for 14th best in the league.
So what was the result of all this MVP-hype for the 21-year-old Anthony Davis going into the 2014-15 season? Try a league-leading 30.89 PER, as a result of 24.4 points, 10.8 rebounds, 2.9 blocks, and 1.5 steals per game on 53.5% shooting from the field and 80.5% from the charity stripe. In fact, Davis may very well have snatched that "youngest MVP" record from Derrick Rose had he played more than 68 out of 82 games and been on a better team than one that snuck into the playoffs as the eighth seed on tiebreaks. Alas, Stephen Curry, who played 80 regular season games on the record-setting Golden State Warriors -- who handily swept Davis' Pelicans in the opening round of the playoffs -- took home his first of two MVPs that year, courtesy of his third-best PER of 28.05.
But I digress. The point is, that if one 21-year-old superstar big man bursting with potential can nearly win MVP (Davis in 2014-15), then it can most certainly be repeated (by Towns, for this 2016-17 season). In fact, Towns played all 82 games last year and has shown excellent health throughout all levels of his career -- an essential element for any MVP candidate.
Where Towns may falter, however, is in the same category that Davis did a couple of years ago -- his team sucks. Indeed, while the Timberwolves, like Towns himself, are rapidly improving with a solid core of youngsters that also features 2014-15 Rookie of the Year SF Andrew Wiggins, they are far from the West's elite of Golden State, San Antonio, Los Angeles Clippers, Oklahoma City, and Portland. While there's a chance that Minnesota may sneak in as a back-end playoff team, it's nearly impossible that Towns can win MVP unless his team is in the upper-tier, if history is any indication. For that reason, while my bold prediction of Karl Anthony-Towns being a strong MVP candidate for this upcoming season nonetheless remains, I would be very surprised if he were to actually take home the award. Just yet.
The Minnesota big man dominated his class (yes, even Kristaps) en route to a unanimous Rookie of the Year campaign last season. Playing all 82 games, Towns averaged 18.7 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks per game while posting 54.3/34.1/81.1 shooting splits (FG% / 3P% / FT%) -- good for a borderline-top-10 PER (Player Efficiency Rating) of 22.59.
Towns, only 20, already has the tools to score down low, run the pick-and-roll, run the floor in transition, or step outside and be a threat from downtown. It's this unique offensive skillset, equipped so early in his career, that, when coupled with his elite defensive prowess, could in fact make the Timberwolf a once-in-a-generation player.
"Okay, that sounds great and all, and I'm sure Towns will be winning MVPs five-plus years from now," you say "but how could a 20-year-old possibly become MVP next year? Derrick Rose was the youngest MVP ever back in 2011-12, and even he was 22 years and six months." Fair point.
However, Towns will turn 21 on November 15, twenty days after the regular season begins. And a young, star big man being considered an MVP candidate is nothing new -- in fact, many of us did so just a year or two ago.
Pelicans superstar big man Anthony Davis, now 23, was hyped as just that going into the 2014-15 season, when he was about the same age Towns is now. The two bigs at 21 were/are/will be pretty comparable -- Davis was just coming off a sophomore year where he posted a fourth-best PER of 26.54, and a rookie year before that in 2012-13 of a 15th-best 21.80. Recall that Towns' rookie PER last year was a 22.59, good for 14th best in the league.
So what was the result of all this MVP-hype for the 21-year-old Anthony Davis going into the 2014-15 season? Try a league-leading 30.89 PER, as a result of 24.4 points, 10.8 rebounds, 2.9 blocks, and 1.5 steals per game on 53.5% shooting from the field and 80.5% from the charity stripe. In fact, Davis may very well have snatched that "youngest MVP" record from Derrick Rose had he played more than 68 out of 82 games and been on a better team than one that snuck into the playoffs as the eighth seed on tiebreaks. Alas, Stephen Curry, who played 80 regular season games on the record-setting Golden State Warriors -- who handily swept Davis' Pelicans in the opening round of the playoffs -- took home his first of two MVPs that year, courtesy of his third-best PER of 28.05.
But I digress. The point is, that if one 21-year-old superstar big man bursting with potential can nearly win MVP (Davis in 2014-15), then it can most certainly be repeated (by Towns, for this 2016-17 season). In fact, Towns played all 82 games last year and has shown excellent health throughout all levels of his career -- an essential element for any MVP candidate.
Where Towns may falter, however, is in the same category that Davis did a couple of years ago -- his team sucks. Indeed, while the Timberwolves, like Towns himself, are rapidly improving with a solid core of youngsters that also features 2014-15 Rookie of the Year SF Andrew Wiggins, they are far from the West's elite of Golden State, San Antonio, Los Angeles Clippers, Oklahoma City, and Portland. While there's a chance that Minnesota may sneak in as a back-end playoff team, it's nearly impossible that Towns can win MVP unless his team is in the upper-tier, if history is any indication. For that reason, while my bold prediction of Karl Anthony-Towns being a strong MVP candidate for this upcoming season nonetheless remains, I would be very surprised if he were to actually take home the award. Just yet.
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