Season Predictions 2016
Current seeding: 7th
Projected seeding: 8th
It’s safe to say that superstar SF Paul George is back, and better than ever as he almost single-handedly carries the team. Unfortunately, that’s exactly the problem: who else can pick up the slack? SG Monta Ellis was supposed to be the perfect beta dog, but he has only put up 14.5 points per game this season, and nobody else on Indiana has averaged more than 12.5. Still, Ellis plays the beta dog role, whether “perfect” in it or not, and everybody else on this team seems to play one as well, even if it doesn’t necessarily involve putting the ball in the opposing team’s basket. With the recent no-risk, considerable-reward signing of PG Ty Lawson to back up George Hill, it seems more than likely that the Pacers will figure out a way to stick around for the playoffs one way or another.
First round: Cleveland Cavaliers (1)
But they won’t be sticking around for long. As the Cavs of 10 years ago will tell you, one good player (LeBron then, Paul George now) will not get you very far in the postseason. Someone else will definitely have to step up in a big way if the Pacers even have a shot of taking a single game. But if Ellis, nor anyone else for that matter, hasn’t been able to do it for the 82-game regular season, how likely is it that they suddenly flip a switch and go beast mode, against the tough Cavaliers, no less? Not likely at all. As solid of a supporting cast George has, it’s exactly that: a supporting cast, with no fellow stars. LeBron’s, on the other hand, features PG Kyrie Irving, PF Kevin Love, and… yeah you get the idea. Sorry Indy.
Prediction: Cleveland wins, 4-0
Power Rankings
Overall Rank: 20th
Tier: Playoff Hopefuls
Projected Seeding: 10th in East
Superstar SF Paul George is back! ...but with both PF David West and C Roy Hibbert gone. Other than George, this team looks almost nothing like the one we saw consistently make Eastern Conference Finals appearances just two years ago. SG Lance Stephenson, as well as West and Hibbert, were all starters on those Pacer teams, but all play elsewhere now. There is some hope in Indiana, however, as star SG Monta Ellis has since filled Stephenson’s void at SG, PF/C Jordan Hill and C/PF Myles Turner are serviceable replacements for West and Hibbert, and decent PG George Hill still runs the point. All that, and of course the return of Paul George after a season off due to a gruesome leg injury. Still, even if George returns 100%, the depth on this team is average at best, with quite a few rookies actually being relied upon as key rotational pieces. With the middle of the East being improved, expect the Pacers to hang around -- but ultimately drop out of -- the playoff picture.
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Minnesota Timberwolves Trade Grades
Pacers get: SF/SG Chase Budinger
Timberwolves get: PF/SF Damjan Rudez
Team President Larry Bird has made it clear that he wants to play small-ball, having superstar SF Paul George play more power forward. In order to do that, additional depth would be needed at the three, and that’s exactly why they made this deal. At first sight, they just made a clear upgrade, but there is a financial cost to it: Rudez was on a 2 year/$2.35 million deal (with a team option), while Budinger is paid more than Rudez: 1 year/$5 million. Still, the 27 year old earns every penny, as he averaged a very solid 6.8 points and 3.0 rebounds in just 19.2 minutes per game on an efficient 36.4% shooting from downtown. Rudez was a great three-point shooter in his own right at a blazing 40.6% last season, but does very little else and won’t be missed too much in Indiana. Great acquisition by the Pacers, and they needed it badly.
Grade: A-
Trade Grade
Click here for link to Los Angeles Lakers Trade Grades
Lakers get: C Roy Hibbert
Pacers get: Future second-round pick from Lakers
It was not so long ago, in the first half of the 2013-14 season in fact, that Hibbert was viewed as a two-time All-Star that was steadily making his case for Defensive Player of the Year honors for one of the best teams in basketball. Now, however, the 28-year-old is simply an above-average defender and rebounder with a poor offensive game. He put up a modest 10.6 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks per game on an alarmingly low 44.6% shooting. In fact, he could also be viewed as a net negative: Indiana was 2.5 points per 100 possessions better with Hibbert off the court than on, and the center is also on an expiring $15.5 million contract -- a massive overpayment. The Pacers had also drafted Hibbert’s replacement in rookie C/PF Myles Turner, and signed PF/C Jordan Hill. Team President Larry Bird also said they’re looking to have SF Paul George play a lot of power forward -- employing strategies that don’t fit with the Jamaican. Don’t get me wrong: Hibbert is still a starting-caliber center, but he was becoming a terrible fit on a new-look Pacer roster, and was worth giving up for essentially nothing in exchange.
Grade: B
Thanks to Peter Chiaradia (@peter_chiaradia17) for his contribution to this trade grade
Best/Worst Draft Scenarios
(# 11)
Best Case Scenario: Drafting C Willie Cauley-Stein (Kentucky, Junior)
This is probably as fall as Cauley-Stein could slide on draft day. C Roy Hibbert has been somewhat of a disappointment considering his $15.5 million contract, and after he hits free agency next year, the Pacers might want to look at a long-term replacement for him rather than paying a premium to re-sign Hibbert. Also considering the value of a player of Cauley-Stein’s caliber falling all the way to number 11, this pick makes plenty of sense for Indiana, should Cauley-Stein be available. He is an outstanding defender and very good rebounder, averaging 2.23 blocks, 1.1 steals, and 6.2 rebounds per game during his three seasons at Kentucky. He is reminiscent of star C DeAndre Jordan in every way, as he is not a great offensive player but shoots efficiently when given the chance: 8.9 points per game on 57.2% shooting this year, but also has some issues at the free-throw line (61.7%), though not quite as bad as Jordan. This could be the steal of the draft for Indiana.
Worst Case Scenario: PF/C Frank Kaminsky (Wisconsin, Senior) is gone
Given PF David West’s age (34) and C Roy Hibbert’s unsatisfying production and expiring contract, as well as the lack of depth behind the duo, the Pacers almost have to go big man here. The tiers of big men in the draft go as follows: Tier 1: Karl Towns and Jahlil Okafor. Tier 2: Kristaps Porzingis and Willie Cauley-Stein. Tier 3: Kaminsky, Trey Lyles, Myles Turner, and maybe you could throw Bobby Portis in there, though he might be more tier four. Turner is more of a long-term project with potential, and given that the key pieces around superstar SF/SG Paul George (25 years old) are a little on the older side (George Hill is 28, Roy Hibbert is 28, David West is 34), Indiana needs someone that can start contributing sooner rather than later. Lyles will also need some time to develop, but Kaminsky can come in and make an impact immediately. The winner of both the Naismith and the Wooden awards in 2015 (deeming one the best player in college), Kaminsky averaged 19 points on very efficient shooting as well as 8 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game. If he’s not available, however, the Pacers will be forced to settle with longer-term projects like Turner or Lyles.
Draft Targets
Pick #16: Devin Booker, Shooting Guard/Small Forward, Kentucky
This is a dream scenario for the Pacers. Since SG Lance Stephenson’s departure this past offseason, the need for a quality shooting guard that can also light it up from deep and complement superstar SF/SG Paul George upon his return next season has been most glaring. Check, check, and check for Booker. The 6’6” shooting guard has hit 1.6 threes per game for the Wildcats on a ridiculous 43% clip. He’s more than just a spot up shooter, however, as he has used the threat of his lethal three-point shot in order to create shots for himself off the dribble. Not only is Booker only 18 and the best player available, but he also addresses a need for Indiana. Easy choice.
Season Predictions
Regular Season: The Pacers, thanks to geography (playing in the East) are still in contention for one of the final playoff spots in the weaker conference, despite a sub-.500 record and a roster that certainly doesn’t scream playoffs. This is because that even though Indiana got the number one seed last season and made it the conference finals, they lost SG Lance Stephenson to Charlotte in free agency, and superstar SF/SG Paul George went down with a gruesome injury over the summer. There have been rumors that George may return towards the end of this season, but it will likely be too late for the Pacers to nab a postseason berth. Should he return sooner rather than later however, and help out PG George Hill, PF David West and C Roy Hibbert, Indiana may capture a playoff spot. But because that seems rather unlikely as he will probably return closer to the end, the Pacers will be hard-pressed to make the playoffs.
Projected Record: 35-47, 10th in East
One Trade That Every Team Should Do
Indiana gets: PG Reggie Jackson, C Kendrick Perkins
Oklahoma City gets: PF/C Luis Scola, SF Chris Copeland, PG Donald Sloan, PF Shayne Whittington, Indiana’s 2017 first-rounder, Golden State’s 2015 second-rounder (via Indiana)
Finances: A lot of the players involved in this deal are just to make the money work, but there are a few key players that the teams actually want. Scola, Copeland, and Sloan are all on expiring contracts, worth $4.5, $3.1, and $1 million respectively, but calling them contract fill-ins would be insulting to the solid seasons each are having. Whittington, who’s a bench warmer, is due for just $500,000 this year, after which his deal ends, and he is certainly a contract fill-in. This is also the case for Perkins, whose hefty expiring $9.2 million deal is critical in making the finances work. Jackson is the star of this trade, and is playing on the last year of his rookie contract at just $2.3 million, and is most definitely due for a raise this offseason. For both teams, the money is not much of an issue as all of these deals don’t run past this season
The Fit: Jackson has been openly frustrated about his role backing up superstar PG Russell Westbrook for the Thunder, saying that he wants a starting gig. He can easily get that In Indiana, as the Pacers look to add another piece for the title run they look to have next season, where superstar SF/SG Paul George will return from his gruesome injury suffered last summer. Jackson easily deserves a starting role, as he averaged 19.5 points, 7.5 assists, and 5.5 rebounds when handed 38 minutes a game in November, where Westbrook and superstar teammate SF/PF Kevin Durant were riding the pine with injuries. Though he only connected on 41.5% of his shots and coughed up the ball 3.2 times a game, those stats certainly scream starter, if not all-star. Losing key role players in Scola, Copeland, and Sloan certainly hurts, as do the picks, but it is well worth it to snag someone with as much potential as Jackson.
Why the other team does it: Oklahoma City actually has little use for Jackson, as they have Westbrook to run the point, as well as the newly acquired SG Dion Waiters to be the go-to scorer in the second unit. Trading him makes the most sense, especially considering how unhappy he is, and this is the perfect package. Scola is averaging a solid 9 points and 6 rebounds, Copeland chips in 1.2 threes a game, and Sloan does a bit of everything, as he puts up 9.5 points, 4.5 assists, 3.5 rebounds and a three per contest. Sloan would fill in for Jackson as the backup to Westbrook, and Scola and Copeland would play key minutes for the Thunder’s relatively thin rotation behind Durant and up front, which is barely affected by the loss of Perkins. The picks also help, and could be used as trade bait to land other players in Oklahoma City. Losing Jackson hurts, but Sloan can replace him just as well, and the Thunder get many other assets to boot.
State of the Franchise
Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $12.9 million
Background: The Indiana Pacers’ season, along with Paul George’s leg (SF IND), was distorted in a horrifying fashion this year. The superstar got his foot stuck between the bottom of the basket and the ground, and the rest, well… I suggest you check out the video (actually, don’t). In the end, the 24-year-old had to sit out this year, though people are optimistic about his return for 2015-2016 season. This doomed Indiana to a playoff-less year, much less a fourth straight conference finals appearance. The departure of immature but talented SG Lance Stephenson in free agency was the nail in the coffin to this season. Big men PF David West and C Roy Hibbert are still around, as is PG George Hill, but without George and Stephenson, the Pacers are all too thin on the wing, leaving them out of the playoff picture, even in the ridiculously weak Eastern Conference. All is not lost, however, as George will likely return next year. It is up to President Larry Bird and the rest of Indiana’s front office to do all they can to restore this team to the championship contender it once was before George’s gruesome injury by then.
Current Financial State: With roughly $64 million in cap committed and a few slight overpayments, Bird and his crew will have a tough time finding impact players to create a championship team upon George’s return. But since when has a “tough time” ever stopped Larry Legend? George will be making $16.9 million next season, a steal for a superstar of his caliber (assuming he returns at full strength), though that number will increase by $1.2 million each year until it expires after the 2018-2019 season. Hibbert and West have player options for $15.5 million and $12.6 million, respectively, which they will certainly accept. Those big men account for the bulk of the non-George contracts, with Hill being slightly overpaid at $8 million. SF CJ Miles and C Ian Mahinmi will pocket $4.4 and $4 million respectively, while role players Solomon Hill and Damjan Rudez, whose contracts combine for a total of $2.5 million, are the only other commitments Indiana has beyond this season. A few key role players will hit the open market this summer, and they represent perfect trade chips for Indiana this season. Which leads me to this next paragraph.
Targets: It is critical that the Pacers use their cap space and expiring contracts this season to fetch another piece for a title run upon George’s return next year. One big name on the open market with a relatively low asking price is Oklahoma City Thunder PG Reggie Jackson. Jackson has stated that he wants to be a starter, and with superstar PG Russell Westbrook ahead of him on the Thunder’s depth chart, Jackson has become increasingly frustrated with his role there. One workable trade possibility would go as follows: Indiana sends the expiring contracts of PF Luis Scola, SF Chris Copeland, PG Donald Sloan and bench warmer PF Shayne Whittington, as well as a 2017 first rounder and the Golden State Warriors’ second round draft choice this year, which could very well end up being the last pick in the draft. In turn, the Thunder would send PG Jackson, as well as the huge expiring contract of C Kendrick Perkins, who is absolutely critical to making the finances of the deal work, as well as dropping the Thunder under the luxury tax line. For Oklahoma City, this is the exact sort of haul they wanted for Jackson. Sloan can run the point for the second unit perfectly, while Scola and Copeland will likely carve out meaningful roles in head coach Scott Brooks’ rotation. The picks are just a sweetener, and the Thunder can plan for the future all the while dodging another luxury tax bill. For Indiana, this works out well, too. Watson, Scola, and Copeland, while pivotal role players, do not have contracts extending beyond this season, anyways. Perkins’ ridiculous overpayment of $9.7 million fortunately comes off the books this year, and while losing the picks hurt, it is well worth it if it means getting Reggie Jackson in exchange.
The Fit: Jackson is a budding star whose talent and potential is undeniable. Behind Westbrook, Jackson has not been receiving the playing time he deserves. He was on full display when Westbrook and fellow superstar SF Kevin Durant were injured in the beginning of the season. In the month of November, Jackson averaged 19.5 points, 7.5 assists, and 5.3 rebounds in 38.2 minutes per game, despite shooting just 41.5% from the field and turning the ball over 3.2 times per game. On the year, Jackson is averaging around 14 points, 4.5 assists, and 4 rebounds in just under 30 minutes per game, almost identical stats to last year, though inefficient shooting and turnovers continue to be an issue. However, at just 24 years old and cooped up behind Westbrook for his whole career, Jackson has plenty of room to grow and sort out these issues, which are common in younger players. Jackson, along with West and Hibbert, all figure to become key pieces in Indiana’s title run upon George’s return.
Current seeding: 7th
Projected seeding: 8th
It’s safe to say that superstar SF Paul George is back, and better than ever as he almost single-handedly carries the team. Unfortunately, that’s exactly the problem: who else can pick up the slack? SG Monta Ellis was supposed to be the perfect beta dog, but he has only put up 14.5 points per game this season, and nobody else on Indiana has averaged more than 12.5. Still, Ellis plays the beta dog role, whether “perfect” in it or not, and everybody else on this team seems to play one as well, even if it doesn’t necessarily involve putting the ball in the opposing team’s basket. With the recent no-risk, considerable-reward signing of PG Ty Lawson to back up George Hill, it seems more than likely that the Pacers will figure out a way to stick around for the playoffs one way or another.
First round: Cleveland Cavaliers (1)
But they won’t be sticking around for long. As the Cavs of 10 years ago will tell you, one good player (LeBron then, Paul George now) will not get you very far in the postseason. Someone else will definitely have to step up in a big way if the Pacers even have a shot of taking a single game. But if Ellis, nor anyone else for that matter, hasn’t been able to do it for the 82-game regular season, how likely is it that they suddenly flip a switch and go beast mode, against the tough Cavaliers, no less? Not likely at all. As solid of a supporting cast George has, it’s exactly that: a supporting cast, with no fellow stars. LeBron’s, on the other hand, features PG Kyrie Irving, PF Kevin Love, and… yeah you get the idea. Sorry Indy.
Prediction: Cleveland wins, 4-0
Power Rankings
Overall Rank: 20th
Tier: Playoff Hopefuls
Projected Seeding: 10th in East
Superstar SF Paul George is back! ...but with both PF David West and C Roy Hibbert gone. Other than George, this team looks almost nothing like the one we saw consistently make Eastern Conference Finals appearances just two years ago. SG Lance Stephenson, as well as West and Hibbert, were all starters on those Pacer teams, but all play elsewhere now. There is some hope in Indiana, however, as star SG Monta Ellis has since filled Stephenson’s void at SG, PF/C Jordan Hill and C/PF Myles Turner are serviceable replacements for West and Hibbert, and decent PG George Hill still runs the point. All that, and of course the return of Paul George after a season off due to a gruesome leg injury. Still, even if George returns 100%, the depth on this team is average at best, with quite a few rookies actually being relied upon as key rotational pieces. With the middle of the East being improved, expect the Pacers to hang around -- but ultimately drop out of -- the playoff picture.
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Minnesota Timberwolves Trade Grades
Pacers get: SF/SG Chase Budinger
Timberwolves get: PF/SF Damjan Rudez
Team President Larry Bird has made it clear that he wants to play small-ball, having superstar SF Paul George play more power forward. In order to do that, additional depth would be needed at the three, and that’s exactly why they made this deal. At first sight, they just made a clear upgrade, but there is a financial cost to it: Rudez was on a 2 year/$2.35 million deal (with a team option), while Budinger is paid more than Rudez: 1 year/$5 million. Still, the 27 year old earns every penny, as he averaged a very solid 6.8 points and 3.0 rebounds in just 19.2 minutes per game on an efficient 36.4% shooting from downtown. Rudez was a great three-point shooter in his own right at a blazing 40.6% last season, but does very little else and won’t be missed too much in Indiana. Great acquisition by the Pacers, and they needed it badly.
Grade: A-
Trade Grade
Click here for link to Los Angeles Lakers Trade Grades
Lakers get: C Roy Hibbert
Pacers get: Future second-round pick from Lakers
It was not so long ago, in the first half of the 2013-14 season in fact, that Hibbert was viewed as a two-time All-Star that was steadily making his case for Defensive Player of the Year honors for one of the best teams in basketball. Now, however, the 28-year-old is simply an above-average defender and rebounder with a poor offensive game. He put up a modest 10.6 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks per game on an alarmingly low 44.6% shooting. In fact, he could also be viewed as a net negative: Indiana was 2.5 points per 100 possessions better with Hibbert off the court than on, and the center is also on an expiring $15.5 million contract -- a massive overpayment. The Pacers had also drafted Hibbert’s replacement in rookie C/PF Myles Turner, and signed PF/C Jordan Hill. Team President Larry Bird also said they’re looking to have SF Paul George play a lot of power forward -- employing strategies that don’t fit with the Jamaican. Don’t get me wrong: Hibbert is still a starting-caliber center, but he was becoming a terrible fit on a new-look Pacer roster, and was worth giving up for essentially nothing in exchange.
Grade: B
Thanks to Peter Chiaradia (@peter_chiaradia17) for his contribution to this trade grade
Best/Worst Draft Scenarios
(# 11)
Best Case Scenario: Drafting C Willie Cauley-Stein (Kentucky, Junior)
This is probably as fall as Cauley-Stein could slide on draft day. C Roy Hibbert has been somewhat of a disappointment considering his $15.5 million contract, and after he hits free agency next year, the Pacers might want to look at a long-term replacement for him rather than paying a premium to re-sign Hibbert. Also considering the value of a player of Cauley-Stein’s caliber falling all the way to number 11, this pick makes plenty of sense for Indiana, should Cauley-Stein be available. He is an outstanding defender and very good rebounder, averaging 2.23 blocks, 1.1 steals, and 6.2 rebounds per game during his three seasons at Kentucky. He is reminiscent of star C DeAndre Jordan in every way, as he is not a great offensive player but shoots efficiently when given the chance: 8.9 points per game on 57.2% shooting this year, but also has some issues at the free-throw line (61.7%), though not quite as bad as Jordan. This could be the steal of the draft for Indiana.
Worst Case Scenario: PF/C Frank Kaminsky (Wisconsin, Senior) is gone
Given PF David West’s age (34) and C Roy Hibbert’s unsatisfying production and expiring contract, as well as the lack of depth behind the duo, the Pacers almost have to go big man here. The tiers of big men in the draft go as follows: Tier 1: Karl Towns and Jahlil Okafor. Tier 2: Kristaps Porzingis and Willie Cauley-Stein. Tier 3: Kaminsky, Trey Lyles, Myles Turner, and maybe you could throw Bobby Portis in there, though he might be more tier four. Turner is more of a long-term project with potential, and given that the key pieces around superstar SF/SG Paul George (25 years old) are a little on the older side (George Hill is 28, Roy Hibbert is 28, David West is 34), Indiana needs someone that can start contributing sooner rather than later. Lyles will also need some time to develop, but Kaminsky can come in and make an impact immediately. The winner of both the Naismith and the Wooden awards in 2015 (deeming one the best player in college), Kaminsky averaged 19 points on very efficient shooting as well as 8 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game. If he’s not available, however, the Pacers will be forced to settle with longer-term projects like Turner or Lyles.
Draft Targets
Pick #16: Devin Booker, Shooting Guard/Small Forward, Kentucky
This is a dream scenario for the Pacers. Since SG Lance Stephenson’s departure this past offseason, the need for a quality shooting guard that can also light it up from deep and complement superstar SF/SG Paul George upon his return next season has been most glaring. Check, check, and check for Booker. The 6’6” shooting guard has hit 1.6 threes per game for the Wildcats on a ridiculous 43% clip. He’s more than just a spot up shooter, however, as he has used the threat of his lethal three-point shot in order to create shots for himself off the dribble. Not only is Booker only 18 and the best player available, but he also addresses a need for Indiana. Easy choice.
Season Predictions
Regular Season: The Pacers, thanks to geography (playing in the East) are still in contention for one of the final playoff spots in the weaker conference, despite a sub-.500 record and a roster that certainly doesn’t scream playoffs. This is because that even though Indiana got the number one seed last season and made it the conference finals, they lost SG Lance Stephenson to Charlotte in free agency, and superstar SF/SG Paul George went down with a gruesome injury over the summer. There have been rumors that George may return towards the end of this season, but it will likely be too late for the Pacers to nab a postseason berth. Should he return sooner rather than later however, and help out PG George Hill, PF David West and C Roy Hibbert, Indiana may capture a playoff spot. But because that seems rather unlikely as he will probably return closer to the end, the Pacers will be hard-pressed to make the playoffs.
Projected Record: 35-47, 10th in East
One Trade That Every Team Should Do
Indiana gets: PG Reggie Jackson, C Kendrick Perkins
Oklahoma City gets: PF/C Luis Scola, SF Chris Copeland, PG Donald Sloan, PF Shayne Whittington, Indiana’s 2017 first-rounder, Golden State’s 2015 second-rounder (via Indiana)
Finances: A lot of the players involved in this deal are just to make the money work, but there are a few key players that the teams actually want. Scola, Copeland, and Sloan are all on expiring contracts, worth $4.5, $3.1, and $1 million respectively, but calling them contract fill-ins would be insulting to the solid seasons each are having. Whittington, who’s a bench warmer, is due for just $500,000 this year, after which his deal ends, and he is certainly a contract fill-in. This is also the case for Perkins, whose hefty expiring $9.2 million deal is critical in making the finances work. Jackson is the star of this trade, and is playing on the last year of his rookie contract at just $2.3 million, and is most definitely due for a raise this offseason. For both teams, the money is not much of an issue as all of these deals don’t run past this season
The Fit: Jackson has been openly frustrated about his role backing up superstar PG Russell Westbrook for the Thunder, saying that he wants a starting gig. He can easily get that In Indiana, as the Pacers look to add another piece for the title run they look to have next season, where superstar SF/SG Paul George will return from his gruesome injury suffered last summer. Jackson easily deserves a starting role, as he averaged 19.5 points, 7.5 assists, and 5.5 rebounds when handed 38 minutes a game in November, where Westbrook and superstar teammate SF/PF Kevin Durant were riding the pine with injuries. Though he only connected on 41.5% of his shots and coughed up the ball 3.2 times a game, those stats certainly scream starter, if not all-star. Losing key role players in Scola, Copeland, and Sloan certainly hurts, as do the picks, but it is well worth it to snag someone with as much potential as Jackson.
Why the other team does it: Oklahoma City actually has little use for Jackson, as they have Westbrook to run the point, as well as the newly acquired SG Dion Waiters to be the go-to scorer in the second unit. Trading him makes the most sense, especially considering how unhappy he is, and this is the perfect package. Scola is averaging a solid 9 points and 6 rebounds, Copeland chips in 1.2 threes a game, and Sloan does a bit of everything, as he puts up 9.5 points, 4.5 assists, 3.5 rebounds and a three per contest. Sloan would fill in for Jackson as the backup to Westbrook, and Scola and Copeland would play key minutes for the Thunder’s relatively thin rotation behind Durant and up front, which is barely affected by the loss of Perkins. The picks also help, and could be used as trade bait to land other players in Oklahoma City. Losing Jackson hurts, but Sloan can replace him just as well, and the Thunder get many other assets to boot.
State of the Franchise
Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $12.9 million
Background: The Indiana Pacers’ season, along with Paul George’s leg (SF IND), was distorted in a horrifying fashion this year. The superstar got his foot stuck between the bottom of the basket and the ground, and the rest, well… I suggest you check out the video (actually, don’t). In the end, the 24-year-old had to sit out this year, though people are optimistic about his return for 2015-2016 season. This doomed Indiana to a playoff-less year, much less a fourth straight conference finals appearance. The departure of immature but talented SG Lance Stephenson in free agency was the nail in the coffin to this season. Big men PF David West and C Roy Hibbert are still around, as is PG George Hill, but without George and Stephenson, the Pacers are all too thin on the wing, leaving them out of the playoff picture, even in the ridiculously weak Eastern Conference. All is not lost, however, as George will likely return next year. It is up to President Larry Bird and the rest of Indiana’s front office to do all they can to restore this team to the championship contender it once was before George’s gruesome injury by then.
Current Financial State: With roughly $64 million in cap committed and a few slight overpayments, Bird and his crew will have a tough time finding impact players to create a championship team upon George’s return. But since when has a “tough time” ever stopped Larry Legend? George will be making $16.9 million next season, a steal for a superstar of his caliber (assuming he returns at full strength), though that number will increase by $1.2 million each year until it expires after the 2018-2019 season. Hibbert and West have player options for $15.5 million and $12.6 million, respectively, which they will certainly accept. Those big men account for the bulk of the non-George contracts, with Hill being slightly overpaid at $8 million. SF CJ Miles and C Ian Mahinmi will pocket $4.4 and $4 million respectively, while role players Solomon Hill and Damjan Rudez, whose contracts combine for a total of $2.5 million, are the only other commitments Indiana has beyond this season. A few key role players will hit the open market this summer, and they represent perfect trade chips for Indiana this season. Which leads me to this next paragraph.
Targets: It is critical that the Pacers use their cap space and expiring contracts this season to fetch another piece for a title run upon George’s return next year. One big name on the open market with a relatively low asking price is Oklahoma City Thunder PG Reggie Jackson. Jackson has stated that he wants to be a starter, and with superstar PG Russell Westbrook ahead of him on the Thunder’s depth chart, Jackson has become increasingly frustrated with his role there. One workable trade possibility would go as follows: Indiana sends the expiring contracts of PF Luis Scola, SF Chris Copeland, PG Donald Sloan and bench warmer PF Shayne Whittington, as well as a 2017 first rounder and the Golden State Warriors’ second round draft choice this year, which could very well end up being the last pick in the draft. In turn, the Thunder would send PG Jackson, as well as the huge expiring contract of C Kendrick Perkins, who is absolutely critical to making the finances of the deal work, as well as dropping the Thunder under the luxury tax line. For Oklahoma City, this is the exact sort of haul they wanted for Jackson. Sloan can run the point for the second unit perfectly, while Scola and Copeland will likely carve out meaningful roles in head coach Scott Brooks’ rotation. The picks are just a sweetener, and the Thunder can plan for the future all the while dodging another luxury tax bill. For Indiana, this works out well, too. Watson, Scola, and Copeland, while pivotal role players, do not have contracts extending beyond this season, anyways. Perkins’ ridiculous overpayment of $9.7 million fortunately comes off the books this year, and while losing the picks hurt, it is well worth it if it means getting Reggie Jackson in exchange.
The Fit: Jackson is a budding star whose talent and potential is undeniable. Behind Westbrook, Jackson has not been receiving the playing time he deserves. He was on full display when Westbrook and fellow superstar SF Kevin Durant were injured in the beginning of the season. In the month of November, Jackson averaged 19.5 points, 7.5 assists, and 5.3 rebounds in 38.2 minutes per game, despite shooting just 41.5% from the field and turning the ball over 3.2 times per game. On the year, Jackson is averaging around 14 points, 4.5 assists, and 4 rebounds in just under 30 minutes per game, almost identical stats to last year, though inefficient shooting and turnovers continue to be an issue. However, at just 24 years old and cooped up behind Westbrook for his whole career, Jackson has plenty of room to grow and sort out these issues, which are common in younger players. Jackson, along with West and Hibbert, all figure to become key pieces in Indiana’s title run upon George’s return.
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