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Season Predictions 2016: heat

Season Predictions 2016

Current seeding: 5th
Projected seeding: 4th
 
Miami, even in the post-LeBron era, is a very powerful force if healthy. The only problem, of course, is that is a very big “if” -- one that is troubled further by star PF/C Chris Bosh’s blood clot issues at the second consecutive All-Star break. Thankfully for the Heat, and obviously for Bosh’s own personal well-being, news has recently broke that the big man plans to return “soon” and quite possibly even before the end of the regular season. The pairing of Bosh and C Hassan Whiteside is the perfect pairing in theory: Whiteside is a dominant clean-up scorer, shot-blocker, and rebounder; while Bosh is proficient in those areas as well but particularly excels in inside-outside scoring. Of course franchise legend SG Dwyane Wade hasn’t gone anywhere, as even at the ripe old age of 34, he’s still getting it done, being named to his 13th straight All-Star game and leading Miami with 19.3 points per game. PG Goran Dragic and SF Luol Deng round out an impressive starting five, with the recent signing of SG/SF Joe Johnson providing a huge boost to both the second unit, outside scoring, and Wade’s knees -- as with no capable backup behind him, the legend could rarely take the rest he needed at this stage of his career. The bench has also been revamped: from rookie sensation SG/SF Justise Winslow to PF/C Amare Stoudemire. As I said, a very powerful force.*
 
*when healthy
 
First round: Charlotte Hornets (5)
 
You could make a very strong case to me that these are the 7th and 8th best teams in all of basketball -- behind (no particular order) the Warriors, Spurs, Cavaliers, Thunder, Clippers, and and Raptors (yes, I see you Boston and Atlanta). But as luck would have it, the circumstances (conferences, injuries to Bosh and C Al Jefferson, those pesky Celtics) dictate, or my circumstances dictate rather, that one of these teams will be going home in the first round. With the return of Jefferson, the Hornets now finally have their dominant low-post presence back. This make it all the more difficult to guard against Charlotte’s barrage of shooters, further bolstered by the acquisition of SG Courtney Lee. And then of course there’s the problem of star PG/SG Kemba Walker: a speedy guard averaging 21.4 points per game who can pass, drive, or shoot before you can blink. The best way to stop Kemba is by meeting him at the rim when he drives, as staying in front of him is nearly impossible. This means that a lot of the onus falls on Whiteside, and not just to limit Walker’s points inside either, but to keep the low-post scorer Al Jefferson in check as well; neither task is easy. But if Whiteside can handle that job to an extent, while head coach Erik Spoelstra keeps him surrounded by four other quality defenders, then the Heat can do a lot to limit Charlotte’s two stars while also allocating enough men to guard against the three-pointers. After that, it just comes down to putting up enough points offensively to win, and there’s no reason why Wade, Bosh, et al cannot lead the charge per usual.
 
Prediction: Miami wins, 4-2
 
Second round: Cleveland Cavaliers (1)
 
The King returns to Miami! …only that he’ll be wearing a Cleveland jersey. Even with The Decision: Part Two well in the rearview mirror, the atmosphere in this series is sure to be tense, as not only the act itself, but the way that LeBron left the Heat has surely left a bitter taste in their mouths. But it’s important to keep in mind that LeBron came back home for a reason. Yes, a lot of it was just to “come back home”, but even as great as Wade and Bosh still are, it’s clear that James legitimately thought that he would have a better chance of winning with the Cavs than with the Heat. And so just as much as Miami wants to prove that he made the wrong decision, LeBron’s teammates will want to prove that he made the right one, but it won’t be easy for them. Let me start by saying that Miami would have absolutely no shot at all if SF Luol Deng was unable to do something to slow down LeBron just a little bit. Also paramount for the Heat is for the Bosh-Whiteside duo to triumph over Cleveland’s big men: Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson, Timofey Mozgov, etc,  and win the battle inside. That means out-scoring, out-rebounding, and out-defending, while much of the offense comes from the Dragic-Wade backcourt and a second unit boost. That would be the ideal, but the reality would probably look a lot more like Kyrie Irving and LeBron taking over, while Cleveland will simply have a huge advantage in three-pointers.
 
Prediction: Cleveland wins, 4-2
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