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Season Predictions 2016: Thunder

Season Predictions 2016

Current seeding: 3rd
Projected seeding: 3rd

Unlike the past few seasons, there have been no hiccups for the Thunder thus far: superstars PG Russell Westbrook and SF/PF Kevin Durant have remained healthy and amazing, Billy Donovan is doing an admirable job in his inaugural head coaching season, and the team has -- for the most part -- avoided distracting rumors about where Durant will end up this summer in free agency. The one thing that I just have to point out, however, is that despite how ridiculous Westbrook and Durant are, that the supporting cast has to pull their weight. PF/C Serge Ibaka has been okay, but hasn’t quite met expectations; this has been offset to an extent by the solid play of centers Enes Kanter and Steven Adams. The most troubling area is perhaps the shooting guard spot, where Randy Foye, Anthony Morrow, and Dion Waiters all have point-per-game numbers well into the single-digits, after each put up 10+ last season. Not only does this spot have to be filled with Durant and Westbrook on the floor, but when they’re off, the rotation gets even worse: rookie PG Cameron Payne, who has met his low expectations for year one, takes Westbrook’s spot, while either Kyle Singler or Andre Roberson fills in for Durant; none of these three players put up more than 6 points per game. And people wonder why this team is always one superstar injury away from disaster. It’s called depth, and the Thunder only 
look like they have it.


First round: Houston Rockets (6)

Houston has been struggling to find quality production outside of ex-Thunder superstar SG James Harden, as they deal with an underwhelming supporting cast -- very similar to OKC’s situation. But the Thunder have several things going for the in this series. To state the obvious, they have two superstars versus one, and we know how important having elite players is in the postseason. Secondly, the rebound differential is striking: OKC ranks first in the league in rebound rate, while Houston is tied for 21st; this should give the Thunder several extra possessions throughout the series. Thus not only can OKC use their offensive possessions more efficiently, but they will have more as well. Defensively, the Thunder are also the better team. The only real way that Houston can triumph is if defenders like PG Patrick Beverley, SF Trevor Ariza and C Dwight Howard can collectively contain Westbrook and Durant, while Harden goes off for 35+ points per game and the Rocket second-unit outperforms OKC’s. That’s way too many “ifs.”

Prediction: Oklahoma City wins, 4-1

Second round: San Antonio Spurs (2)

This one is sure to be a thriller, as probably two of the three best teams in basketball face off. Immediately coming to find is the 2013-14 Western Conference Finals, the most recent time OKC made the playoffs, where they lost 4-2 to the eventual champions. Has each team improved since then, and by how much?

The Thunder have lost several key role players since then: most notably Reggie Jackson (PG, DET), but also Caron Butler, Jeremy Lamb, Derek Fisher, and Kendrick Perkins; PF/C Serge Ibaka was also enjoying a better season back then compared to this current campaign. The improvements of superstars Westbrook and Durant are not to be overlooked, as are the additions of C Enes Kanter and the replacements for the backcourt and wing players lost. All in all, it seems as if OKC has stayed about even; they actually went 59-23 (0.720) that year, compared to a record of 48-22 (0.686) thus far.

San Antonio, however, is a different story. Other than role players Cory Joseph (PG, TOR) and Marco Belinelli (SG, SAC) -- who have since been easily replaced by guys like PG Andre Miller and SG Kevin Martin -- the Spurs have every single one of their key players from their ‘14 title run. Now you could argue that aging dinosaurs like PF/C Tim Duncan, SG Manu Ginobili, and PG Tony Parker have since declined -- a case only even the least bit compelling, by the way, for the latter two players; Duncan ages like fine wine -- but such a drop-off has been more than offset by the growth of the team. Obviously, SF Kawhi Leonard has since evolved into a complete superstar, and several other role players have improved as well. Even more obviously are the fresh additions to the team: including Miller and Martin, GM R.C Buford has added PF David West and of course star PF LaMArcus Aldridge. Aldridge has adjusted very well with the team, becoming the perfect beta dog to Kawhi and Duncan + Head Coach Gregg Popovich newest trainee. This is an even more dangerous team than the one that slayed LeBron, Wade, and Bosh in the finals -- a very scary thought. The Thunder are very talented, but without a solid second-unit to hold off San Antonio’s elite bench, I’m afraid this will be a 2014 repeat.

Prediction: San Antonio wins, 4-2
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