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ATLANTA HAWKS: season predictions

Season Predictions

Regular Season: The Hawks are just totally running away with the East so far. They are currently 7.5 games ahead of the second-place Raptors, and are just bruising through the competition. One would think so, what with having four all-stars plus their coach and all. I have them slotted to finish at 60-22, “just” a 16-10 finish from their current stance. They’re capable of finishing the season with 63 or 64 wins, or potentially even more, but with their huge lead on all teams out East, it makes little sense to keep their foot on the gas pedal throughout the rest of the regular season. Instead, Coach Mike Budenholzer would be wise to rest his starters towards the end in order to keep them fresh for the playoffs.

Projected Record: 61-21

Playoffs Round One
Atlanta Hawks (#1) vs. Brooklyn Nets (#8)

This should be a cakewalk for Atlanta, with all due respect to Brooklyn. The Nets have continued to be horrendously mediocre, as way too many bad contracts and lack of draft picks prevent this team from improving anytime soon. Still, PG Deron Williams remains a borderline-star and SG Joe Johnson is among the most clutch players in the league. Up front, PF/SF Thaddeus Young was a nice acquisition and C Brook Lopez remains a dominant two-way player, all while C/PF Mason Plumlee enjoys a breakout year. However, they are simply no match for the Hawks. PF Paul Millsap and C Al Horford are a better duo up front then Young/Plumlee and Lopez in every way imaginable. PG Jeff Teague more than matches up with Williams, and SG Kyle Korver will be the most lethal three-point shooter on the court by far, with teammate SF DeMarre Caroll probably coming in second. This isn’t even mentioning Atlanta’s impressive depth and all their players’ fantastic all-around ability, as well as their selfless play and flawless team chemistry. The Nets should be easy prey for the Hawks (see what I did there?).

Series Prediction: Atlanta Wins 4-0

Playoffs Round Two
Atlanta Hawks (#1) vs. Chicago Bulls (#4)

Though a significantly harder test than the Nets it’s hard to imagine the Bulls being the team to end the Hawks’ magical season without a healthy superstar PG Derrick Rose. Rose has recently gone down with yet another leg injury, and all our prayers go out to him. This Bulls team is still actually very capable of beating just about anybody, as they are quite a tough group, featuring a couple of All-Stars in SG/SF Jimmy Butler (though he is dealing with an injury of his own) and PF Pau Gasol. Reigning Defensive Player of the Year C Joakim Noah still guards the rim, and there are many other key role players who contribute as well. However, with no healthy Rose at the helm and other players being old or injury-prone, Chicago is far from a safe bet in the playoffs. And Atlanta is.

Series Prediction: Atlanta Wins 4-2

Playoffs Round Three (Eastern Conference Finals)
Atlanta Hawks (#1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (#3)

This is the matchup we’ve all been waiting for. The “Spurs of the East” versus the star-studded Cleveland squad. Both teams feature a talented starting player at all five positions, as well as depth up and down the roster backing them up. Both teams play well on both sides of the ball, with Cleveland addressing their defensive woes through mid-season acquisitions. There is one knock on each team, however: the Hawks lack playoff experience and the Cavaliers lack team chemistry. For Atlanta, this isn’t quite so pressing. Teague and Horford experienced some playoff success with SG/SF Joe Johnson and PF/SF Josh Smith back in the day, while Millsap saw the playoffs a few times in Utah and Korver has had success with multiple teams. However, their players don’t have nearly as much success as the Cavaliers do, as not a single member of the Hawks’ starting five has even made it to a Conference Finals. Cleveland, on the other hand, has a more glaring issue. Most of their key players have just joined the team this season, with the exception of PG Kyrie Irving. Superstar SF/PF LeBron James returned this past offseason, and with him brought star PF/C Kevin Love via trade, and the rest of the roster was filled out with veterans and more trade acquisitions. Not being familiar with your teammates can be fatal to a team, especially LeBron’s team, as his Miami Heat lost to the Dallas Mavericks in the 2010 Finals in his first year in South Beach. The Spurs are the only other team to beat LeBron in the finals, and they’ve done it twice. Now, however, the “Spurs of the East” will prevent him from even getting there, as a lack of team chemistry will knock “The King” off his throne in what is sure to be a grueling and exciting series.

Series Prediction: Atlanta Wins 4-3

Playoffs Round Four (Finals)
Atlanta Hawks (#1) vs. Houston Rockets (#3)

First of all, don’t be mislead by the Rockets’ #3 seeding out West. The conference is incredibly difficult, significantly harder than the East, and Houston also has a projected 55-27 regular season record. This record is also largely deflated to the injuries suffered to star C Dwight Howard throughout the season, as well as playing in the Southwest division, by far the hardest one in basketball. Lead by superstar SG James Harden, with defensive stalwarts SF Trevor Ariza, PF Josh Smith, and PG Patrick Beverley filling out the lineup, this is one heck of a matchup for the Hawks. The Hawks now have two things going against them: no superstar and little playoff experience. You pretty much need a superstar to win the finals, as evidenced by the very impressive list of Finals MVPs. Atlanta doesn’t really have one, just a collection of young stars, who also don’t have the same experience that a team like the Rockets have. The Hawks will simply be out-defended by the collection of defenders Houston has, and guarding Harden while not doubling Howard in the post will be a major issue, as the Rockets can really spread the floor. Atlanta will certainly put up a fight, as they’re ball-movement and floor-spacing will give Houston headaches on defense, but like I said, Houston simply has too many quality defenders. Both Harden and Howard have made the finals, though neither with the Rockets, and Ariza actually has two titles, with other players also having some sort of success. Harden has had an MVP-caliber season and will certainly get my vote for the prestigious award, and now he will look to become the 11th player to ever win both MVP awards in the same season.

Series Prediction: Houston wins 4-3
Finals MVP: SG James Harden
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