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Season Predictions 2016: Warriors

Season Predictions 2016

Current seeding: 1st
Projected seeding: 1st
 
History unfolding before your very eyes. As the season winds down, it actually seems more and more feasible that the Warriors may actually break Michael Jordan’s 1995-96 Chicago Bulls’ regular-season record of 72-10. Either way, superstar Pg Stephen Curry has been absolutely unbelievable – and fellow stars PF/SF Draymond Green and SG Klay Thompson are not too far behind. What Head Coach Steve Kerr often likes to do is employ the starting five that I call the Suicide Squad (shout-out to DC for what looks like an excellent movie): the aforementioned trio, plus reigning Finals MVP SF Andre Iguodala and three-point marksman SF/PF Harrison Barnes; the 6’7” Draymond plays center in this lineup. Centers Andrew Bogut and Festus Ezeli still get their fair share of playing time, as does the rest of this elite bench.

“But can they beat the ’95-96 Bulls?”
 
First round: Dallas Mavericks (8)
 
The only way a team would theoretically have a chance against Golden State is if they were to slow down the superstar backcourt of Curry and Klay, and the Mavericks don’t even appear to have any quality perimeter defenders at all. That alone means Golden State will be averaging 100+ points per game in this series, and the fact that Draymond Green, probably the best defender in the league, can guard either of Dallas’ top two scorers – SF Chandler Parsons or PF Dirk Nowitzki -- means that the Mavs will have a tough time on offense too. The Warriors also have an advantage in bench play, rebounding, turnover ratio… I could go on.
 
Prediction: Golden State wins, 4-0
 
Second round: Golden State Warriors (1)
 
Any time any team is taking on Golden State, the very first question will always be the same: “What can that team possibly do to slow down Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson?” LA has a better answer to that than most. While nobody can actually slow down the unstoppable Steph Curry, Clippers superstar PG Chris Paul may just be the most qualified point guard in the league for the job, as he can hang with Curry on both ends of the court. Containing Klay is a less impossible -- but still very difficult -- task, and the Clippers can run out of capable wing defenders very quickly. Even though LA has star C DeAndre Jordan to hold down the paint and limit some of the guards’ drives, you can expect Curry and Thompson to have a combined average of about 50 points per game in this series.

Thus getting something going on offense will be paramount for LA, and they should have superstar PF Blake Griffin back by this point. He’ll have to be guarded by Draymond, however, who is always tough to score on. The LA offense starts and ends with Chris Paul, relying on him not just for his 20 points per game, but for his 10 assists per game: setting up the offense as a whole. Wingmen like Redick, Crawford, and Green will have to provide a key scoring punch, as will the Clipper bench if it hopes to hang in with Golden State’s elite second-unit.

In all, this should be a very fun, exciting, and high-scoring series between Pacific Division rivals. One of the main factors that I think the matchup will really come down to is rebounds -- simply who will have more possessions in this game, who will get more shots up. Golden State ranks 9th in rebound rate. The Clippers? Second to last.
 
Prediction: Golden State wins, 4-3
 
Third round (Western Conference Finals): San Antonio Spurs (2)
 
This one should be great: probably the two best teams in all of basketball (sorry Cavs, Thunder) going at it. Golden State has been unstoppable this year, thanks of course to their superstar backcourt duo of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, and the versatile beast PF/SF Draymond Green. These two teams each rank at or near the top of the lists in nearly every category: rebounds, threes, defensive efficiency, you name it; thus this matchup cannot be decided abstractly, rather, you have to analyze the matchup. 

An area where San Antonio should have an edge is inside -- despite the presence of Green and Warriors C Andrew Bogut, the frontcourt trio of Leonard, Aldridge and Duncan, plus guys like PF David West behind them, should get the Spurs plenty of points in the paint. Thus an x-factor in this series could be a guy like Bogut or C Festus Ezeli for Golden State, as Green cannot do all of the interior defending on his own. 

In the backcourt, however, it is clearly advantage Warriors. Not only do Curry and Thompson average a combined 52.3 points and 8.4 threes per game, but the depth behind them and around them is also superb. What I imagine Popovich might do quite often is shift Leonard onto Curry, do lots of switches off of screens, and play help defense in order to attempt some sort of a collective effort against Curry and Thompson. To what extent such a strategy might work remains to be seen.

All in all, I think this could be a lower-scoring series than a lot of people might think, as Leonard and Green are likely the two very best defenders in basketball and will guard the opposing team’s top scorer. The bench play could also be a decisive factor, but again: these two teams have the very best benches in the league, and it will likely be a wash as well. Ultimately, however, I’m just skeptical as to whether or not Golden State can get much offense going outside of Curry and Thompson, while San Antonio has a variety of players who can put the ball in the basket. Gut call.

Prediction: San Antonio wins, 4-3
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