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ORLANDO MAGIC: state of the franchise

State of the Franchise

Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $37.9 million

Background: Everything about what the Magic are today started with the "Dwightmare." Of course, this refers to the ugly exit of superstar C Dwight Howard, who played the first eight years of his career in Orlando. Back in 2012, there had been rumors that Dwight was tired of losing and wanted out for quite some time. Finally, the Magic dealt him to the Los Angeles Lakers in a four team deal that also involved the Philadelphia 76ers and the Denver Nuggets in a blockbuster trade that also sent then-superstar C Andrew Bynum from Los Angeles to Philadelphia and star SG/SF Andre Iguodala from Philadelphia to Denver. The following year, the Lakers lost Howard to Houston in free agency, Denver let Iguodala walk to Golden State, and Bynum turned out to be very injury prone and the Sixers just didn't even want him anymore. The Magic received all sorts of draft picks and prospects from Denver in particular, including star C Nikola Vucevic and SF Moe Harkless who are still with the team right now and are part of the team’s future. Following the trade, Orlando proceeded to strip themselves of their title-contending identity with no superstar to lead the way. The Magic let both PG Jameer Nelson and PF Ryan Anderson walk in free agency, while SG JJ Reddick was dealt to Milwaukee in a deal that brought young prospect SF Tobias Harris to Orlando. This post-Dwight era for Orlando is a tough one, as there's a lot of tanking and rebuilding happening, with plenty of prospects to show for the past couple of years of futility. The Magic figure to have their backcourt for the future established, with dynamic young guards, rookie PG Elfrid Payton and SG Victor Oladipo running the show. SF's Tobias Harris and Moe Harkless, Harris in particular, will likely hold down the three-spot for the next decade to come. Vucevic could pair nicely with rookie PF Aaron Gordon, though Gordon remains out for the season with an injury. Everyone in the Magic's core is very young and on their cheap rookie-scale contracts still, though the team does have spacing issues at the moment. Despite the odd signing of veteran PF Channing Frye and the firing of head coach Jacque Vaughn after a lack of success, the future remains very bright. It won't be long before the magic returns to Orlando (pun intended).

Current Financial State: As mentioned above, most of the Magic's players are on their rookie-scale contracts, so that leaves them with a lot of cap space. The only major commitment going beyond this season is to veteran PF Channing Frye, who was handed a 4 year/$32 million deal by the Magic last year. The deal isn't disastrous, though it is quite pricey, especially for a 31 year old who is a solid decade older than most of the other players. Either way, Frye is an impact player, and should be useful as this team starts to get more interest in winning than losing in the coming years. The Magic still have tons of cap flexibility with all their rookie-scale contracts, with just $59.6 million committed this year and $38.8 million next year. That is when Vucevic's new 4 year/$48 million extension kicks in, which is starting to look like a steal right now, but it is also where SF/PF Tobias Harris must get an extension of his own, as he becomes a restricted free agent this offseason. It is vital that Orlando retains a key member of their core.

Targets: As mentioned above, it is crucial that Harris sticks around in unrestricted free agency, as he could represent the future at either forward position. Averaging 17.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, and a three and a steal in 34.5 minutes per game, Harris is certainly worth his $12 million asking price. He declined a 4 year/$36 million extension offer before the season, an offer that seemed fair at the time, but after the season he is putting together, he looks to be worth considerably more. A 4 year/$48 million deal, especially considering the Knicks' reported interest, will likely be in the cards. However, Harris will not do too much to solve Orlando's spacing issues. But SG Nik Stauskas can. The rookie was drafted #8 overall this year by the Sacramento Kings, and is putting together a very disappointing campaign, averaging just 3 points on 33.5% shooting in just 14 minutes a game so far. However, the Kings have reportedly put the Michigan product on the trading block in an effort to find a quality PF to put next to franchise centerpiece C DeMarcus Cousins. Stauskas, regarded as one of the best shooters in the whole rookie class, would be a perfect buy-low option for Orlando right now, as they can afford to take on the risk that he just might be just a total bust. In turn, Orlando would send Frye as well as veteran SG Willie Green to Sacramento, and they would probably have to throw in a second-rounder to get the Kings to bite. The Magic would also have to take on PF Carl Landry's pricey contract, as he has 3 years/$20 million remaining on his deal, despite only averaging 8 points and 4.5 rebounds per game, though he is shooting a very efficient 53% from the field. For Sacramento, Frye is a proven stretch-four who can defend and provide key floor spacing for Sacramento, which is exactly what the Kings have been reportedly interested in at power forward. Willie Green is also a nice buy-low option, as he's making just $1.5 million on an expiring deal. Getting rid of Thompson's ugly contract also helps, as does the second-rounder. The Kings have been trying to get rid of their failed rookie all season long in favor of young SG Ben Mclemore, and this trade is a perfect opportunity to do so. For Orlando, Stauskas represents a great low-risk/high-reward option at this point.

The Fit: Harris' fit is undeniable, as he's pretty much the "1b" to Vucevic's "1a" in terms of go-to options on offense, as well as being able to play either forward position. His defense is well above-average, his potential is high, the intangibles are there, and you just can't blame him for Orlando's floor-spacing issues. Harris could very well end up being the best player on this team in a little while, and the Magic simply cannot afford to let him walk. Stauskas, on the other hand, has a more disputable fit. One could argue that SG Evan Fournier is already doing exactly what Stauskas would be asked to do in Orlando, and technically they would be right. However, having extra depth at shooting guard would allow starting SG Victor Oladipo to shift over to point guard occasionally, something he's easily capable of doing, and that would give PG Elfrid Payton a breather. In addition, Fournier is 6’7” and Stauskas is 6’6”, so it's not as if either player can’t shift over to play small forward, Orlando's weakest position. Besides, when did some extra floor spacing ever hurt anyone? Losing Frye definitely hurts, as does slightly the second round pick for a rebuilding team, but the $8 million that Orlando would save by shipping Frye to Sacramento can be put to better use, namely to a guy that is not a full decade older than the other key players. Stauskas represents an upgrade over SG Ben Gordon on the depth chart at the two, and it's really PF Jason Thompson's contract that hurts the most in this deal. The 28-year-old is due for roughly $20 million over the next three years, but it's not as if Orlando is dying for that money anyways. The key aspect here is that Thompson's contract is worth a couple million less annually than Frye, as well as being a contract that expires one year earlier. Thompson could come in and battle for some minutes at power forward along with Aaron Gordon and others, as he is averaging 5.5 points and 6.5 rebounds in 25 minutes per game this season, though his role in Orlando would be minimal. The shooting needs to be addressed in Orlando, and buying low on Stauskas is the perfect way to do that.
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