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Season Predictions 2016: Spurs

Season Predictions 2016

Current seeding: 2nd
Projected seeding: 2nd

Who here remembers the 2014 Spurs title team,? The one who rebounded from a devastating finals loss to Miami in the prior year, only to go a league-best 62-20 (0.756), dominate the playoffs, and get sweet revenge against the Heat to the tune of a 4-1 series victory? That team?

Well, guess what: nothing has happened to it. Every single key player from that squad remains on the team today, sans maybe backups PG Cory Joseph and SG Marco Belinelli. The key changes between now and then, however, are not subtractions, rather they are additions. PF David West, PG Andre Miller, SG Kevin Martin and more have all further bolstered a bench that was already probably the best in the league; that’s not even to mention the transformation of SF Kawhi Leonard into a superstar. The greatest addition, however, is of course star PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge, lured from Portland in free agency this past summer. Aldridge has fit in nicely with San Antonio as the beta dog for Leonard at 18 points and 8 rebounds per game. You could argue that dinosaurs PF/C Tim Duncan, PG Tony Parker, and SG Manu Ginobili have declined since 2014, but let’s be honest: Duncan ages like fine wine, and Parker and Ginobili are still very solid contributors. This team is beyond scary.

First round: Portland Trail Blazers (7)

Well, this will after all be the return of Aldridge to Portland, and after the way he left, it’s unlikely that the city is preparing a hero’s welcome or anything of the sort. That will actually be a key advantage for San Antonio in this series: just their sheer dominance up front. The Blazers have many decent frontcourt defenders -- their main rotation consists of SF/PF Al Farouq-Aminu, PF/C Ed Davis, C/PF Mason Plumlee, and C Meyers Leonard -- but none of those players even score in double digits. It’s very difficult to imagine a crop of youngsters like that overcoming a San Antonio frontline consisting of Leonard, Aldridge, and Duncan. In fact, SG Allen Crabbe is Portland’s third-highest scorer at 10.3 points per game, as nearly the team’s entire offense comes from the star backcourt duo of PG Damian Lillard and SG/PG C.J McCollum. San Antonio’s backcourt and help defense are simply too good to be beaten by just two players, no matter how talented they may be.

Prediction: San Antonio wins, 4-0

Second round: Oklahoma City Thunder (3)

The Thunder may look intimidating, and they sure are -- that’s what a pair of elite superstars in PG Russell Westbrook and SF/PF Kevin Durant will get for you -- but nobody strikes fear into the Spurs. And for good reason too: the last time these two teams met in the playoffs was in the 2014 Western Conference Finals, where the Spurs won 4-2 before getting revenge on Miami in the finals. As mentioned above, San Antonio has improved a great deal since then, but Oklahoma City has only really replaced old role players with new ones -- immediately making the Spur the favorites here. Despite everything the front office did to add more firepower, 90% of the Thunder’s offense comes from Westbrook and Durant. And while by no means will they be shut down, the Spurs (as also mentioned above) simply work too well together as a defensive unit to be overcome by two players.

Prediction: San Antonio wins, 4-2

Third round (Western Conference Finals): Golden State Warriors (1)

This one should be great: probably the two best teams in all of basketball (sorry Cavs, Thunder) going at it. Golden State has been unstoppable this year, thanks of course to their superstar backcourt duo of PG Stephen Curry and SG Klay Thompson, and the versatile beast PF/SF Draymond Green. These two teams each rank at or near the top of the lists in nearly every category: rebounds, threes, defensive efficiency, you name it; thus this matchup cannot be decided abstractly, rather, you have to analyze the matchup.

An area where San Antonio should have an edge is inside -- despite the presence of Green and Warriors C Andrew Bogut, the frontcourt trio of Leonard, Aldridge and Duncan, plus guys like PF David West behind them, should get the Spurs plenty of points in the paint. Thus an x-factor in this series could be a guy like Bogut or C Festus Ezeli for Golden State, as Green cannot do all of the interior defending on his own.

In the backcourt, however, it is clearly advantage Warriors. Not only do Curry and Thompson average a combined 52.3 points and 8.4 threes per game, but the depth behind them and around them is also superb. What I imagine Popovich might do quite often is shift Leonard onto Curry, do lots of switches off of screens, and play help defense in order to attempt some sort of a collective effort against Curry and Thompson. To what extent such a strategy might work remains to be seen.

All in all, I think this could be a lower-scoring series than a lot of people might think, as Leonard and Green are likely the two very best defenders in basketball and will guard the opposing team’s top scorer. The bench play could also be a decisive factor, but again: these two teams have the very best benches in the league, and it will likely be a wash as well. Ultimately, however, I’m just skeptical as to whether or not Golden State can get much offense going outside of Curry and Thompson, while San Antonio has a variety of players who can put the ball in the basket. Gut call.

Prediction: San Antonio wins, 4-3

Fourth round (Finals): Cleveland Cavaliers (1)

This will be the third finals in four years of “LeBron vs. Spurs” , with The King playing on Miami for the other two matchups, which are tied 1-1. San Antonio smoked his Heat in 2014 by a series score of 4-1, so it all depends on one big question: “How much, if at all, better is James’ supporting cast now versus then?” PG Kyrie Irving and PF/C Kevin Love are decently comparable players to SG Dwyane Wade and PF/C Chris Bosh, but it’s clear that the Cavs have stronger role players than Miami did, even though both teams had solid supporting casts. SG’s J.R Smith and Iman Shumpert and big men Timofey Mozgov, PF Channing Frye, PF Tristan Thompson are definite upgrades over the aging three-point specialists on the Heat a few years ago.

Yet San Antonio is a different beast than it was in 2014. The addition of Aldridge is obvious and of paramount importance -- he, along with backup PF David West, will do wonders in improving what was already a superior frontcourt to LeBron’s. Internal growth and the simple maintaining of the same core players by GM R.C Buford will give the Spurs the edge in this series. If they did it once without Aldridge -- and did it 4-1 off of amazing three-point shooting -- they can sure do it again, even if LeBron and his new and improved supporting cast will make the series that much more entertaining.

Prediction: San Antonio wins, 4-3
Finals MVP: Kawhi Leonard
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