Season Predictions 2016
Current seeding: 2nd
Projected seeding: 2nd
Their odds of catching Cleveland for the one-spot are slim, but that is not to take away anything from this incredible season. Everything has just seemed to click for Toronto: you’d think it was because of the astute signing of SF DeMarre Carroll, but the team’s surge has largely coincided with Carroll’s latest injury. Rather, it is the ever-reliable star guard duo of PG Kyle Lowry and SG/SF DeMar DeRozan leading the way, with the two dominating all-around and averaging a combined 45+ points per game. There has also been all-around improvement amongst the duo’s supporting cast, with a deep bench that allows head coach Dwane Casey to play nine players a night, easy. They may not get the one-seed, but the Raptors are clearly a force to be reckoned with, especially with the impending return of SF DeMarre Carroll.
1st round: Detroit Pistons (7)
This is actually a tougher matchup for Toronto than the seeding would suggest: after the acquisition of PF/SF Tobias Harris at the trade deadline, Detroit now boasts an impressive starting five of PG Reggie Jackson, SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SF/PF Marcus Morris, Harris, and C Andre Drummond. That starting five has a little bit of everything: from perimeter defenders that could hold Lowry and DeRozan in check on some nights, to interior defenders and rebounders (Drummond), to plenty of scoring options to the point where this is a very dangerous matchup for Toronto and likely a trendy upset pick. However, a key area where I see the Raptors having an unquestionable edge is bench scoring. Toronto ranks seventh in the league in bench play and have 6 bench players putting up at least 5 ppg, while their counterparts rank 27th in bench play and have only three such players. The Raptors have the upper-hand both at the top, with Lowry and DeRozan putting up over 21.5+ ppg compared to Detroit’s top scorer, Jackson, having just 19.2. As Toronto appears to have the scoring advantage both at the top and bottom, I have to give them the edge here.
Prediction: Toronto wins, 4-2
2nd round: Atlanta Hawks (6)
Atlanta’s defense has been very impressive as of late, but most of that has been due to the interior defense of PF Paul Millsap and C Al Horford. While this should pose issues for Lowry and DeRozan in terms of driving to the rim, you can count on the duo to find other ways to score, as Lowry, for instance, is also a prolific three-point shooter. Permitted the scoring is there from the backcourt and the second unit also gives a nice boost, all it really comes down to is limiting Millsap and Horford’s touches inside, something that Toronto’s mostly-capable bigs can handle.
Prediction: Toronto wins, 4-2
3rd round (Eastern Conference Finals): Cleveland Cavaliers (1)
With all due respect to Atlanta’s 2015 team, of which there is a great deal of, Cleveland’s road to the finals will be no cakewalk this season, I can guarantee you that. A 4-0 sweep in the ECF is most definitely not in store, not if Lowry, DeRozan, and Co. have anything to say about it. There is actually no evident statistical advantage that Cleveland has: Toronto ranks 4th in offensive efficiency and 13th in defensive, while the Cavs are 5th and 8th, respectively. Rather, I believe the issue for the Raptors will be the fact that there is simply too much to worry about on defense. Can Carroll maybe slow down LeBron a little bit on some nights? Okay, but it’s very difficult to imagine him averaging less than 25 points per game in the series, as is it hard to envision Carroll being able to do it all on his own. Double-teaming LeBron, especially with a big man, only makes a bad problem worse: Toronto’s matchup inside against big men such as Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson, Timofey Mozgov already does not bode well for them on either end of the court. Bringing in a guard only leaves shooters like SG J.R Smith open, or even worse: PG Kyrie Irving. What you really need to slow Cleveland down is an elite perimeter defender and interior defender, as well as five quick guys on the floor that work cohesively together with their rotations. Not quite impossible, but ridiculously difficult, and while the pieces are more or less in place for Toronto to give LeBron and Co. a hard time, the lack of playoff experience on this team will essentially just be the nail in the coffin.
Prediction: Cleveland wins, 4-2
Current seeding: 2nd
Projected seeding: 2nd
Their odds of catching Cleveland for the one-spot are slim, but that is not to take away anything from this incredible season. Everything has just seemed to click for Toronto: you’d think it was because of the astute signing of SF DeMarre Carroll, but the team’s surge has largely coincided with Carroll’s latest injury. Rather, it is the ever-reliable star guard duo of PG Kyle Lowry and SG/SF DeMar DeRozan leading the way, with the two dominating all-around and averaging a combined 45+ points per game. There has also been all-around improvement amongst the duo’s supporting cast, with a deep bench that allows head coach Dwane Casey to play nine players a night, easy. They may not get the one-seed, but the Raptors are clearly a force to be reckoned with, especially with the impending return of SF DeMarre Carroll.
1st round: Detroit Pistons (7)
This is actually a tougher matchup for Toronto than the seeding would suggest: after the acquisition of PF/SF Tobias Harris at the trade deadline, Detroit now boasts an impressive starting five of PG Reggie Jackson, SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SF/PF Marcus Morris, Harris, and C Andre Drummond. That starting five has a little bit of everything: from perimeter defenders that could hold Lowry and DeRozan in check on some nights, to interior defenders and rebounders (Drummond), to plenty of scoring options to the point where this is a very dangerous matchup for Toronto and likely a trendy upset pick. However, a key area where I see the Raptors having an unquestionable edge is bench scoring. Toronto ranks seventh in the league in bench play and have 6 bench players putting up at least 5 ppg, while their counterparts rank 27th in bench play and have only three such players. The Raptors have the upper-hand both at the top, with Lowry and DeRozan putting up over 21.5+ ppg compared to Detroit’s top scorer, Jackson, having just 19.2. As Toronto appears to have the scoring advantage both at the top and bottom, I have to give them the edge here.
Prediction: Toronto wins, 4-2
2nd round: Atlanta Hawks (6)
Atlanta’s defense has been very impressive as of late, but most of that has been due to the interior defense of PF Paul Millsap and C Al Horford. While this should pose issues for Lowry and DeRozan in terms of driving to the rim, you can count on the duo to find other ways to score, as Lowry, for instance, is also a prolific three-point shooter. Permitted the scoring is there from the backcourt and the second unit also gives a nice boost, all it really comes down to is limiting Millsap and Horford’s touches inside, something that Toronto’s mostly-capable bigs can handle.
Prediction: Toronto wins, 4-2
3rd round (Eastern Conference Finals): Cleveland Cavaliers (1)
With all due respect to Atlanta’s 2015 team, of which there is a great deal of, Cleveland’s road to the finals will be no cakewalk this season, I can guarantee you that. A 4-0 sweep in the ECF is most definitely not in store, not if Lowry, DeRozan, and Co. have anything to say about it. There is actually no evident statistical advantage that Cleveland has: Toronto ranks 4th in offensive efficiency and 13th in defensive, while the Cavs are 5th and 8th, respectively. Rather, I believe the issue for the Raptors will be the fact that there is simply too much to worry about on defense. Can Carroll maybe slow down LeBron a little bit on some nights? Okay, but it’s very difficult to imagine him averaging less than 25 points per game in the series, as is it hard to envision Carroll being able to do it all on his own. Double-teaming LeBron, especially with a big man, only makes a bad problem worse: Toronto’s matchup inside against big men such as Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson, Timofey Mozgov already does not bode well for them on either end of the court. Bringing in a guard only leaves shooters like SG J.R Smith open, or even worse: PG Kyrie Irving. What you really need to slow Cleveland down is an elite perimeter defender and interior defender, as well as five quick guys on the floor that work cohesively together with their rotations. Not quite impossible, but ridiculously difficult, and while the pieces are more or less in place for Toronto to give LeBron and Co. a hard time, the lack of playoff experience on this team will essentially just be the nail in the coffin.
Prediction: Cleveland wins, 4-2