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chicago bulls

Season Predictions 2016

Current seeding: 9th
Projected seeding: 9th

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: the Bulls have been ravaged by injuries this year. With the potential talent that this roster could have -- from stars PF/C Pau Gasol, SG/SF Jimmy Butler, and PG Derrick Rose, to a very solid crop of role players -- I can state with confidence that this would no doubt be a playoff team if injuries had not taken place. If. The reality, however, is that C Joakim Noah has been out for the season for quite some time, and that Rose, Butler, and others have missed double-digit games. Now, Chicago finds themselves a couple games back of the playoff picture, and few games left to recover. But Butler is still dealing with injuries, as is the rest of the roster. With Indiana and Detroit improving by adding PG Ty Lawson and PF/SF Tobias Harris, respectively, I just don’t see Chicago catching up in time.

Trade Grades

Click here for link to Utah Jazz Trade Grades
Click here for link to Atlanta Hawks Trade Grades

Hawks get: 
SG Kirk Hinrich
Jazz get: PG Shelvin Mack
Bulls get: SG Justin Holiday, second-rounder (via Utah)

Nice work. Very nice work, in fact. The Bulls here somehow managed to turn a guard averaging 3.8 points per game (Hinrich) into a guard averaging 2.4 points per game (Holiday), and a second-round pick. Translation: they got a free second-round pick. To quote Jeb Bush: "please clap."

Grade: A

Power Rankings
​

Overall rank: 8th
Tier: Playoff Locks
Projected Seeding: 2nd in East

The Bulls have had an excellent team during the 2010s, featuring a core that has always included PG Derrick Rose, SG Jimmy Butler, and C Joakim Noah. SF Luol Deng and PF Carlos Boozer used to round out that starting 5, but Boozer has since been replaced by the productive PF/C Pau Gasol and young SF Doug McDermott looks to edge out SG/SF Mike Dunleavy to be the main guy to fill the void left by Deng at the three. Butler and Gasol cruised to All-Star appearances last season, while Noah was decent when healthy as well. Rose is actually a superstar when he’s 100%, in fact, but injuries have plagued him badly over the last few years. However, he’s healthy now, and my gut tells me to bet on him to stay healthy for the better part of this season (no matter how stupid that sounds, given Rose’s past, as well as his recent minor injury). A starting lineup featuring Rose, Butler, Gasol, Noah, and a revamped bench is sure to be a top-10 team, but the season essentially hinges on Rose’s ACLs. And I’m predicting that they’ll hold up, simple as that.​

Best/Worst Draft Scenarios


(#22 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Drafting SG R.J. Hunter (Georgia State, Junior)

With star SG Jimmy Butler as well as his backup, SG/SF Mike Dunleavy, hitting free agency, the Bulls could stand to add another shooting guard. Particularly one that could hit from three, as Chicago needs as much spacing as it can get considering how much star PG Derrick Rose loves to drive. They could look a few ways to fill that void at this point in the draft actually, but probably the best choice would be Hunter. A 6’6” shooting guard with a 6’11” wingspan, Hunter is also a knockdown shooter that made a heroic shot in the NCAA Tournament. He averaged 19.7 ppg this season, and most importantly averaged 2.6 threes on 35.5% shooting from beyond the arc over his three seasons at Georgia State -- albeit against much weaker competition than most. He’s also a good passer, uses his length to be a solid rebounder for his position, and can work the pick-and-roll nicely. However, he’s more of a one-dimensional player  than being all too close to well-rounded. Despite his length, he’s only an average defender, not a great slasher, and his lack of strength limits his all-around game. Still, Hunter won’t be asked to step in and carry the load in Chicago -- they have plenty of other guys to take care of that. Rather, he’ll be asked to come in as a specialist and fill a specific role for the Bulls until he can further develop, which makes this a perfect fit.

Worst Case Scenario: None

Picks 20-30 feature shooters galore, and Chicago will be among the first to take their pick of them. This list includes Hunter, SG Rashad Vaughn, and SF Justin Anderson, as well as another quality wing player in SF Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (though he can’t really shoot), to name a few. The Bulls, needing a three-point shooter, are bound to have their choice from that list. If a few of them happen to be gone by the time they are on the clock, they’ll probably be able to get a steal at #22. This leaves the Bulls in that optimal win-winner scenario. Therefore, there is no worst case scenario for Chicago.

Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams

For the Bulls, almost everything hinges on health, particularly that of their superstar PG Derrick Rose. Keeping stars SG/SF Jimmy Butler, PF Pau Gasol, and C Joakim Noah at 100% wouldn’t hurt either, of course. If all can remain healthy and efficient, there’s no telling what kind of a run this team can make. Their bench must remain productive, but a first round victory should be fairly simple either way. In the second round, Chicago must take on the mighty Atlanta Hawks, but if there is any defense equipped to stop the ball movement and the three-point barrage from Atlanta, it’s the Bulls. Their run shouldn’t end there, however, for if their starters can remain intact and their bench can remain productive, going all the way is not out of the question.

Draft Targets

Pick #20: Jerian Grant, Point Guard, Notre Dame

Grant plays among the most minutes in the country, at 36.6 per game despite there only being 40 minutes in a college match. Head coach Tom Thibodeau loves this kind of durability, as he was the one who made SF Luol Deng lead the league in minutes year after year. Considering superstar PG Derrick Rose’s constant injuries, finding a long-term answer at point guard makes sense, as each year Rose’s injury is a significant setback for the Bulls, with no real replacement plan in place. Grant can solve this issue and then some, as he’s averaging 17 points, 6.5 assists, and 2 steals a game on 48.5% shooting, giving the NBA-ready senior all the tools to step up and be a starter when called upon, or even to lead the second unit should Rose stay healthy. He doesn’t turn the ball over a lot, and he is a dangerous slasher and can score at the basket (76% at the rim). This is very far for Grant to fall given his talent, and the Bulls should pounce at the opportunity, especially considering their need for insurance behind Rose.

Season Predictions

Regular Season: You can’t help but feel for superstar PG Derrick Rose. He could be out for the year for the third time in a row, and his career is seriously in jeopardy now after winning the 2010-2011 MVP. Prayers to him. The Bulls have done just fine without Rose for awhile now as they are used to his injuries, and this season should be no exception. Chicago boasts a couple of rather unlikely All-Stars in SG/SF Jimmy Butler and PF Pau Gasol, while reigning Defensive Player of the Year C Joakim Noah continues to hold down the fort. However, a recent injury to Butler could make things even harder on the Bulls this year, though they should get him back for the playoffs. Chicago is currently battling with Toronto and Cleveland for spots #2, #3, and #4, as all three teams are very close to each other and the Hawks (#1) and Wizards (#5) remain very far away in terms of wins. The injuries to Rose and Butler will no doubt still significantly hurt the Bulls, as they go from title contender to playoff dark-horse, and will probably cause them to slip to fourth in the standings, just a couple of games behind Toronto and Cleveland. Even without a healthy Rose, however, Chicago can still make some noise in the playoffs.

Projected Record: 50-32

Playoffs Round One
Chicago Bulls (#4) vs. Washington Wizards (#5)

The Wizards also boast a former #1 overall pick in the last several years at point guard, but John Wall, unlike Rose, isn’t so injury-prone. He is joined by young star SG Bradley Beal in an impressive backcourt, while defensive anchor C Marcin Gortat and veteran SF/PF Paul Pierce are also key pieces to this Washington team. That said, the Bulls will absolutely dominate up front in this series, with a rotation featuring Gasol, Noah, PF/C Taj Gibson, and more. Rebounding and scoring inside is going to be a huge problem for Washington, and if the Bulls can control those two elements of the game, it’s going to put a lot of pressure on Wall and Beal to light it up from deep. With Butler being such an excellent defender, however, it’s going to be tough for the Wizards to put the ball in the basket, while Chicago has ways to do so on the other end. A defensive slugfest is in store, and the Bulls almost always win those.

Series Prediction: Chicago wins 4-2

Playoffs Round Two
Atlanta Hawks (#1) vs. Chicago Bulls (#4)

This matchup is significantly different than the Wizards for the Bulls. Unlike last series, the Bulls cannot just dominate the paint. Not when PF Paul Millsap and C Al Horford are down low at least. Though the Hawks actually lack quality rebounding and Chicago should maintain a steady edge in that department throughout the series, it is Atlanta’s team all-around that allows them to pull through. Butler can only guard one of PG Jeff Teague, SG Kyle Korver, and SF DeMarre Carroll, and the other two will likely flourish. The driving lanes for these guys, particularly Teague, will also be open, as Horford and Millsap can both hit from mid-range. The Bulls may win the battle inside, but ultimately lose the war as the Hawks advance.

Series Prediction: Atlanta wins 4-2


One Trade That Every Team Should Do

Chicago gets: SG Nik Stauskas, Sacramento’s 2015 second-rounder
Minnesota gets: SG E’Twaun Moore, C Nazr Mohammed, PF Derrick Williams, Chicago’s 2015 first-rounder
Sacramento gets: PF/SF Thaddeus Young


Finances: For Chicago, little changes here. Moore and Mohammed are making a combined $2.5 million on expiring deals, almost what Stauskas is making annually on the always-cheap rookie contract. For a team with major salary cap strife in advance of SG/SF Jimmy Butler’s payday, getting a steal of a deal like Stauskas makes plenty of sense.

The Fit: Though Stauskas is struggling mightily, so much so that the rookie deal is looking pretty reasonable, this is still a nice pickup for Chicago. The rookie is still averaging 0.5 a three in just 13.5 minutes per game, and he is capable of really lighting it up from deep, as he averaged 44.1% shooting in his two year career at Michigan, averaging 17.5 points per game in his sophomore year. Stauskas was drafted eighth overall for a reason, and getting him for a first-rounder-in-exchange-for-a-second rounder sort of thing makes plenty of sense. This is especially true when you consider how much of a deadeye from three Stauskas really is, and how much Chicago could really use some extra wing depth, allowing Butler to play more SF, as well as some three point shooting.

Why the other teams do it: Minnesota is a rebuilding team who is trying to ship their veteran pieces in exchange for future assets, and they get just that in this deal. Moore, Mohammed, and Williams, a former draft bust with Minnesota, all play on expiring deals, so that’s not an issue. President Flip Saunders quickly looks past these contract fill-ins to the true prize: another first-rounder. Dealing away a quality veteran player like Young only frees up more minutes for the younger guys, like PF/SF Anthony Bennett, and gives the team more ping-pong balls. The team getting Young, Sacramento, couldn’t be happier with the outcome of this trade. Though they give up a second-rounder, dealing Stauskas for a quality PF to pair next to superstar C DeMarcus Cousins has apparently been on their wish list in advance of the deadline, and this is the perfect opportunity to strike. Though Young lacks a reliable outside jump shot, he can score down low, rebound, and defend with the best of them, exactly what the Kings are looking for. His averages of 14 points, 5 rebounds, and 2 steals a game couldn’t prove this better, as does his measly 0.4 threes per game.

State of the Franchise

Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $15.8 million

Background: “Holding onto his knee… holding onto his knee… and down!” That line resonated in Bulls fans just as much as when Michael Jordan himself stated “I’ve reached the pinnacle of my career, and I just don’t feel that I have anything left to prove.” Of course, superstar PG Derrick Rose, like Jordan, did return. This season, Rose is putting together his first fully healthy campaign since the 2011-2012 season, where he set the record for the youngest player to ever be named MVP at just 22 years old. Now, Rose returns to a star-studded team, including new addition and All-Star starter PF Pau Gasol, SG Jimmy Butler who is putting together a career year, defensive anchor C Joakim Noah, and more. In addition, playing in a weak Eastern Conference makes the Bulls’ chances of going all the way this year that much higher. But it all hinges on the big question: can Derrick Rose become his MVP-self again, or will his injury still limit him? The jury is still out on that one, and the Bulls clearly hope that it’s the former if they want to capture their first title since His Airness himself was running the show.

Current Financial State: This one all hinges on another big question: “How much will Jimmy Butler cost?” Negotiations for an extension between Butler and the Bulls before the season were in the $12 million range, but the Bulls ultimately turned down all offers, wanting Butler to prove his value on the court and then sign him as a free agent this offseason. Oops. As Butler pads his value game by game en route to by far the best season of his career, the Bulls’ front office can only watch in regret as it prepares the papers for a max contract. For Butler, that max contract would be in the range of 4 years/$70 million, exactly the same deal that Klay Thompson got with the Golden State Warriors. However, since Butler is restricted, this relies on other teams giving him offers. Assuming the Bulls have to cough up $64 million over 4 years, that would bring their payroll up to at least $77.7 million for next year. This is an issue, because that would just barely cross the luxury tax threshold at $76.8 million. The Bulls must turn to the trade market if owner Jerry Reinsdorf does not want to pay a hefty luxury tax bill.

Targets: Obviously, the Bulls will not want to trade away one of their key pieces just to get under the luxury tax line. However, trading away benchwarmers for cap relief will not work as they are all under expiring contracts anyways. SG Kirk Hinrich is the least utilized player under contract next season, so dealing him away for an expiring contract makes sense. Hinrich has a fairly reasonable $2.9 million player option next season, but that is simply too much money for Chicago. Dealing him to a team like the Memphis Grizzlies, who could use his shooting, would make sense. In turn, Memphis would likely send G Nick Calathes and his expiring contract to the Windy City. This swap barely affects the Bulls, as Calathes and Hinrich play the same position and Calathes is almost as good. In this situation, the Bulls could re-sign Calathes to a small, $1 million contract at season’s end and could also match all offers for Jimmy Butler -- all while Reinsdorf is keeping his wallet that much fatter. However, the Bulls are already lacking depth on the wing and three point shooting as it stands, and dealing Hinrich certainly doesn’t help that cause. Enter SF Kyle Singler. The Duke product is averaging 1.5 threes per game for the Detroit Pistons. He is a free agent at season’s end, so Chicago could take a run at him there. However, if they want immediate impact this season, they could potentially package rarely-used SG E’Twaun Moore and a second rounder or two to get Singler’s services. Still, most of the Bulls’ growth must come internally, and it all starts with Derrick Rose’s ACLs.

The Fit: G Nick Calathes will not play a major role for Chicago, as PG Aaron Brooks and SG/SF Mike Dunleavy are backing up Rose and Butler in the backcourt. However, the Bulls are not concerned with this as their motivation for the Hinrich for Calathes swap is purely financial. Kyle Singler, on the other hand, will be in a stiff competition for minutes at SF with Dunleavy and rookie Doug McDermott. Singler is sure to carve out a role for himself in some capacity, however, as he would bring a fantastic three point stroke to a team that could use some more perimeter threats, especially if Hinrich were to be traded. Currently averaging 23 minutes and 1.5 threes per game to go along with a blazing-hot 42.3% clip from beyond the arc with the Pistons, Singler is sure to be a nice addition for the Bulls.


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