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milwaukee bucks

Season Predictions 2016

Current seeding: 12th

Projected seeding: 12th

Milwaukee had high hopes this year: after finishing 6th last season, the team added star PF/C Greg Monroe and had much internal growth amongst its young core. Unfortunately, outside of the team’s three best players -- SF/PF Giannis Antetokounmpo, SF/SG Khris Middleton, and Monroe (who are admittedly having outstanding seasons) -- there has been little quality production. Highly touted prospect SF Jabari Parker has hardly improved since his solid rookie season, and he’s been easily the fourth best player on the team. 

The dearth of quality players, has caused problems everywhere for the team: they are 22nd in offensive efficiency, 23rd in defensive efficiency, and have the 5th highest turnover rating in the league. A strategy the Bucks may want to consider is playing a little faster -- they currently rank 22nd in pace -- as they do have many guys that can get up and down the floor in no time, but Monroe's sometimes plodding presence could hinder that strategy. Obviously, however, improving their depleted second unit also wouldn’t hurt.

Power Rankings​


Overall rank: 11th
Tier: Playoff Locks
Projected Seeding: 5th in East

The Bucks are certainly heading in the right direction as a young team with plenty of upside. Former Rookie of the Year PG Michael Carter-Williams runs the point, and is just one of many incredibly lengthy and athletic freaks on the roster. SF/SG Giannis "The Greek Freak" Antetokounmpo epitomizes this description, and is joined by more young, talented players on the wing: SF/PF Jabari Parker and SF Khris Middleton. PF/C Greg Monroe, signed this offseason, projects to be Milwaukee's top scorer and their only reliable low-post threat. The bench also looks deep, with SG O.J Mayo, PF/C John Henson, and PG/SG Greivis Vasquez, and more. However, there's just one issue: the team can't shoot! Carter-Williams is shooting 25.2% from the 3 point line for his career, and shot even worse in this past season (14.3%). Many others, like Greek Freak, aren't much better, and it's really only the bench players that stretch the floor. For reference, in today's NBA, a little over a third of long-balls go in. The only consistent 3-point threat that forecasts to be in the starting five is Middleton, who is a career 40.3% shooter from beyond the arc. It's no coincidence that last year's six best teams record-wise all finished in the top seven in threes attempted. While the Bucks are still young with plenty of room to grow, making the leap this season is not going to happen unless it starts raining from downtown.

Trade Grades

Click here for link to Dallas Mavericks Trade Grades

Mavericks get: C/PF Zaza Pachulia
Bucks get: Second-round pick (from Dallas)

Much like the Jared Dudley deal, Milwaukee is dealing away a quality role player on a reasonable expiring contract due to a positional logjam in exchange for a second-rounder. After surprisingly landing star PF/C Greg Monroe’s services on a 3 year/$50 million deal, the Bucks had a good problem: too much talent up front. Pachulia seemed to be the odd man out, so trading him made sense. But considering Dallas’ desperate need for a center and the Turk’s solid averages of 8.3 points and 6.8 rebounds last year, one wonders if Milwaukee could have received a little more in exchange.

Grade: B-

Thanks to Jakob Flores (@jakeswgr.102613) for his contribution to this trade grade

Trade Grades
Click here for link to Washington Wizards Trade Grades

Wizards get: SF Jared Dudley
Bucks get: Protected second-round pick (from Washington)

Dudley is a very solid role player who averaged 7.2 points per game last year while on a reasonable $4.25 million expiring deal. He’s also an excellent defender and a great three-point sniper, a skillset that is valued very highly in the NBA today. So on the outskirts, one would assume that the Bucks got robbed, as they got essentially nothing in exchange for the 30-year-old. But you would be partially wrong: Milwaukee was absolutely loaded on the wing this summer, and that was before the team drafted rookie SG Rashad Vaughn and signed SF Chris Copeland. Though perhaps it would have made more sense to simply keep Dudley and use the draft pick and money on other positions, I’m only grading one trade here. And that one trade made sense in order to avoid a complete logjam on the wing.

Grade: B+

Major thanks to Corbin Fields (@ctuck_fields) for his significant contribution to this trade grade
Thanks to Jakob Flores (@jakeswgr.102613) for his contribution to this trade grade

Trade Grades
 
Click here for link to Toronto Raptors Trade Grade

Bucks get: PG/SG Greivis Vasquez
Raptors get: #46 pick (SG/SF Norman Powell), protected 2017 first-rounder

This one makes very little sense for Milwaukee. For starters, their backcourt, particularly at point guard, is absolutely stacked: PG/SG Michael Carter-Williams, rookie SG Rashad Vaughn, PG Tyler Ennis, SG O.J Mayo, PG/SG Jerryd Bayless (not to mention that the position-less Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker often play the two)... and now Vasquez as well? It’s ridiculous, there’s just not enough minutes to go around for all of these guys. Not to mention that Vasquez is 28 years old, not what a rebuilding team is looking for. In addition: they gave up a future first-rounder for him, also not what a rebuilding team is looking to do! This one doesn’t make sense no matter how you look at it.

Vasquez is on a fairly reasonable expiring $6.6 million deal, but that’s beside the point. He’s a good player, don’t get me wrong: the 28 year old’s stats knocked down 1.6 threes on a very efficient 38% shooting from downtown, as part of 9.5 points and 3.7 assists per game. He also boasts an imposing frame for a point guard at 6’6”, and is a solid defender in addition to being a knockdown shooter. He can also run the second unit for almost any team. However, with so much depth at both guard positions, and with the majority of the team’s core being about 22 years old, Vasquez is the furthest thing for an ideal fit in Milwaukee.

Powell is as athletic as they come. He has ridiculous length, is an explosive leaper, and is very quick. You know what that all adds up to: you guessed it, highlight-reel dunks. Everywhere. All the time. However, while those are great from an entertainment perspective, they only translate to two basketball points. And although he’s a solid defender, Powell will need to improve his jump shot for him to see much NBA action. Just like Vasquez, however, his role figured to be severely limited with the Bucks due to their insane amount of guards.

As stated above in the intro, this one was just flat-out stupid by the Bucks. There’s no need to sugarcoat that. Everything, from the age, to the fit, to the assets given up vs. the assets got, is just wrong. Even if in some parallel universe, Vasquez did make sense for the Bucks, they still gave up too much in terms of raw value for him [Vasquez]! I’m being nice on Milwaukee for this one, just because the first-rounder was protected.

Grade: C-


Best/Worst Draft Scenarios

(#17 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Drafting PF/C Bobby Portis (Arkansas, Sophomore)

The case could be made for PF/C Myles Turner here, as there is an outside shot of him falling all the way to #17 if teams don’t have the patience for him to develop. However, it’s extremely unlikely that player with Turner’s potential falls all the way here, but Portis is more than a consolation prize. Perhaps the most underrated player in the draft, Portis averaged a whopping 17.5 points on 54% shooting, to go with 9 rebounds and a combined 2.5 blocks and steals per game, albeit against much weaker competition than most prospects. He has a lethal mid-range jumper, is a frenetic rebounder, and can run the break with this young Bucks team. Although he does have some defensive limitations, another interior defender is not really what Milwaukee is looking for. Rather, they’re looking for a big man that can stretch the defense and potentially be a go-to scorer along with SF Jabari Parker, and Portis can certainly fill that role.

Worst Case Scenario: Somehow, Tier 3 and Tier 4 of big men are gone by #17

First off: this is pretty unlikely. I was going back and forth on whether this even qualified as “realistic”, but nonetheless, there is a chance (however small). Frank Kaminsky, Trey Lyles, Myles Turner, and maybe Portis are tier 3 of big men, and they will be eaten up quickly after the top 10. However, PF/SF Kevon Looney is a player that Milwaukee could have their eyes set on come draft night, but could be considered a reach at #17.  Therefore, they’d rather take one of the aforementioned foursome, but them not being available would be very unfortunate. Of course, they’d have borderline top 10 prospects like SG Devin Booker, PG Cameron Payne SF Kelly Oubre Jr. and SF Sam Dekker falling to them, but the last thing the Bucks need is another wing player. They need someone that can man one of the two frontcourt spots, and it would be next to a disaster if they can’t find a quality player to fill that void on June 25th.



Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams


The Bucks are going to get better. Fast. There’s no doubt about that. This young core features so many tantalizing prospects with ridiculous length, it’s crazy. Right now, even without rookie SF Jabari Parker (injury) and star PG Brandon Knight (trade), Milwaukee is easily capable of winning a series. A “backcourt” (their average height is 6’9”) of PG/SG Michael Carter-Williams and SG/SF Giannis Antetokounmpo can shut down almost anybody on some days, while this team still features a plethora of scoring options -- from SG O.J Mayo from downtown to PF/C John Henson inside. Everybody will need to bring their A-game, but making it to the second round, and then making life difficult for the Cleveland Cavaliers once they’re there, is certainly possible.

Draft Targets

Pick #17: Bobby Portis, Power Forward, Arkansas

The Bucks almost have to go big man here, considering their impressive depth elsewhere and lack of it up front, especially after the buyout of C/PF Larry Sanders. Portis, one of the most dominant big men in the country, is the answer. Though not as good a scorer down low as you’d like, Portis still averages 17.5 points per game thanks to his lethal midrange jump shot, and his passing ability prevents opponents from double-teaming him. He’s also a great rebounder (8.6 a game) and defender (combined 2.5 blocks and steals per game), and his ability to operate in the high post reminds me of superstar PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge. He’s got all the tools to succeed, and given Milwaukee’s lack of quality big men, he will be given the opportunity to do just that.

Season Predictions

Regular Season: The Bucks, though close to the #5 seeded Washington Wizards in the standings, also don’t figure to have a different seeding than their current seeding, #6 out East, indicates. This is so because they have just dealt away star PG/SG Brandon Knight in a deal that showed the front office clearly has an eye on the future, bringing in three prospects including reigning Rookie of the Year PG/SG Michael Carter-Williams, Knight’s replacement. While likely a good for the long-run, not having Knight, who’s enjoying a career year, will significantly hurt Milwaukee’s chances this season. They’re still well above the #7 seeded Heat thanks to Knight, so it seems rather unlikely that the Bucks go either up or down from #6. They’re still a good team without their former star guard, however, as they boast the ridiculously athletic SF/SG Giannis “Greek Freak” Antetokounmpo, PF/C John Henson, SG O.J Mayo, and more. Milwaukee should have no problem staying quite a few games above .500, with only a minor slippage in win percentage.

Projected Record: 43-39

Playoffs Round One
Cleveland Cavaliers (#3) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (#6)

If these two teams played each other five years into the future, it would almost certainly be Milwaukee and their plethora of currently young talent. But in the present, this series is not even particularly close. Superstar SF/PF LeBron James might be able to single-handedly beat this young core, and the fact that he has stars PG Kyrie Irving and PF/C Kevin Love, as well as a variety of complimentary role players simply makes the Bucks no match for this Cleveland team with title aspirations. Carter-Williams, despite his length, is sure to be outshined by Irving, ditto for “Greek Freak” vs. LeBron, and Henson and C/PF Miles Plumlee will be shoved around by the superior duo of Love and C Timofey Mozgov. Besides length in the backcourt, the Cavaliers pretty much win all battles here. Not to fear, Bucks fans, because this team and this core will be back here again next year and for many years to come.

Series Prediction: Cleveland wins 4-1


Trade Grades

Bucks get: PG/SG Michael Carter-Williams, PG Tyler Ennis, C/PF Miles Plumlee
Suns get: PG/SG Brandon Knight, PG Kendall Marshall
76ers get: Los Angeles Lakers’ 2015 first-rounder via Phoenix (top 5 protected, turns into top 3 protected pick in 2016 if not conveyed)

Excellent move by Milwaukee here. They sold-high on Knight’s breakout year, and don’t even have to pay him this offseason now, where he will hit restricted free agency. In return, they netted a nice package, including a young rookie with upside in Ennis. Drafted 18th overall, he has been largely disappointing in the pros, averaging just 3 points and 2 assists per game, but has potential long-term. Plumlee is also a great add as the Bucks badly needed a big man as C/PF Larry Sanders continues to deal with injuries and off the court issues, and is now discussing a buyout with the team. The Duke product is relatively young at 26, so he fits in well with others, and can pair nicely next to PF/C John Henson in the frontcourt as Plumlee is averaging a solid 4.5 points, 5 rebounds, and 1 block per game on 55% shooting in just 18.5 minutes. However, Carter-Williams headlines the package for Knight. The reigning Rookie of the Year has regressed slightly since last year and inefficient shooting and turnovers continue to be an issue. Still, MCW is averaging 15 points, 7.5 assists, 6 rebounds, 1.5 steals, and 1 three per game. He’s still on the rookie contract, as is Ennis, so Milwaukee clearly did excellently in terms of finances here, especially considering how they dodged handing Knight big money. And to scare all the other teams out East: financially is not the only way that the Bucks got even better with this trade.

Grade: A

One Trade That Every Team Should Do

Milwaukee gets: C/PF Enes Kanter
Utah gets: C Zaza Pachulia, Milwaukee’s 2015 second-rounder, Milwaukee’s 2016 second-rounder


Finances: Pretty even financial swap here. Kanter is on the final year of his contract worth $5.7 million, and the whole reason this trade is happening is because the Jazz don’t want to give him a new contract next year. That new deal will likely be for about $7-8 million annually. Pachulia is making a reasonable $5.2 million for each of the next two seasons, so these contracts even out nicely.

The Fit: Milwaukee has expressed interest in acquiring Kanter recently, as they should. They look to acquire more young pieces to help the rebuild, and with C/PF Larry Sanders clearly not working out, Kanter could be a nice fit next to PF/C John Henson in the Bucks’ frontcourt. Kanter is averaging a solid 14 points and 8 rebounds per game, though he does little elsewhere. Pachulia is on the wrong side of 30, and though he is putting together a nice year, he’s far too old for Milwaukee’s young core. Upgrading to Kanter, 22, at the expense of only a couple second-round picks has to be considered a win for the Bucks.

Why the other team does it: The Jazz have expressed little interest in keeping Kanter past this season, and the feeling is mutual among the two parties. Utah seems to favor young C Rudy Govert over him, as the French big man has a 7’9” wingspan that he puts to good use. Trading away Kanter for value as opposed to letting him walk for nothing makes much more sense, even if it means taking back the multi-year contract of Pachulia. Because hey, second-rounders are always better than nothing.

State of the Franchise

Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $26.5 million

Background: The Bucks have been criticized for always seeming to be in the gray area . A few years back, in the days when inefficient gunners PG Brandon Jennings (DET) and SG Monta Ellis (DAL) were in the backcourt, Milwaukee always flirted with the idea of tanking, while still somehow attempting to become a title contender at the same time. Now, with Jennings and Ellis long gone and a new era of young guys donning a green and red jersey every night, namely position-less, non-human Giannis “The Greek Freak” Antetokounmpo and rookie SF Jabari Parker, Milwaukee finds themselves in the dreaded middle ground again. They are a few games above .500 at midseason and holding onto a bottom playoff seed in the weak Eastern Conference, but there is hope that this will not continue. The Bucks were actually supposed to be bad this season, just like last season where they tanked en route to the worst record in the NBA and got Parker in the draft. However, the emergence of several young players, PG Brandon Knight and Greek Freak in particular, as well as the ability to play in the pathetic East, have propelled Milwaukee to their current status. They will likely take a first-round loss at the hands of a contender come April, but just making the postseason shatters expectations for this year. Despite many overpaid veterans still reminding Bucks fans about the poor management in the not-good-but-not-bad era of Ellis and Jennings, the future is bright for the Bucks with a plethora of prospects full of upside.

Current Financial State: This one is odd. Most of the guys who play the most are paid the least, and most of the guys who play the least are paid the most. This is because many of the overpaid veterans are, well overpaid, and are just not as good as the young guys. In addition, head coach Jason Kidd should play the prospects over the vets, as the prospects are the future of the franchise and need the playing time to develop in what will be no more than a first-round exit this season anyways, while the vets will be out the door once their contracts expire. Meanwhile, the young guys are mostly on their cheap rookie deals and are already better than the guys who ride the pine that are making millions more than them. These guys with the bad contracts include C/PF Larry Sanders, SG O.J Mayo, PF/SF Ersan Ilyasova and C Zaza Pachulia. Lucky for the Bucks, however, all these contracts will expire in advance of the legendary 2016 free agency, except for Sanders’ $11 million annually, which will unfortunately not come off the books until 2018. Milwaukee can afford to just ride out these deals, because as mentioned, the players who eat up most of the playing time cost next to nothing, so the Bucks have no immediate use for these wasted dollars. Just enjoy the rookie deals while you have them, Milwaukee, because Parker, Greek Freak and others could be asking for max dollars when their current deals are up.

Targets: As a rebuilding franchise that has more interest in losing than winning, the only impact players Milwaukee would want to get in a trade would be young guys that the Bucks could use in the future. Problem is, there are not any players that fit that bill currently on the trading block, or at least any that would address a positional need for Milwaukee. With PG Brandon Knight, SG Giannis Antetokounmpo (I guess that’s his position, sort of?), SF Jabari Parker and SF/SG Khris Middleton all likely to be key pieces for the future and PF/C John Henson the closest thing the Bucks have to being a big man that they’d like to be on the team five years from now, Milwaukee must turn to the draft to find a big guy to their liking. However, unlike last year, Milwaukee will not have a very high first-rounder, as their record has been fairly good this year. In addition, trading any veteran pieces for draft picks wouldn’t work, as all these guys are overpaid. However, there is one thing Milwaukee has to offer in trades: their cap space. Since they have no use for this money, they can take a bad contract and a pick for next to nothing. One current bad contract is Golden State Warriors SF/SG Andre Iguodala. “Iggy” still has 3 years/$35 million left on his massive contract, and as the Warriors are a title contender, they could really use that money. By dumping Iguodala’s contract on Milwaukee in exchange for SG O.J Mayo, who has 2 years/$16 million remaining on what is not quite a disastrous deal, but a pricey one nonetheless, Golden State could free up some precious cap space. They could dodge the luxury tax while being able to re-sign key piece SF/PF Draymond Green, as well as maybe a new addition with the money they would create. SG/SF Klay Thompson would be asked to play a lot of small forward if Iguodala were to be traded, especially because Mayo plays shooting guard, but that would not be an issue as Klay is 6’7”. As for Mayo himself, he could either be the go-to option in the second unit, or slide into the starting lineup nicely as a spark scorer between Thompson and superstar PG Stephen Curry. Milwaukee would also have no problem throwing in C Zaza Pachulia’s 2 year/$10.4 million deal, if the Warriors want it (they probably wouldn’t). Of course, Golden State would have to give up a second round pick as well as this year’s first rounder in the deal, but that would likely be one of, if not the, last pick in the first round. For Milwaukee, Iguodala’s contract is no big deal, as they will not need the money until their young guys’ rookie deals expire, and Iggy’s contract comes off the books just in time for that. The first round pick is what the Bucks are really in it for, and even though it is a late pick, the Bucks can either package their two first rounders for a better one, or simply select two rookies. The rebuild is on in Milwaukee, and they had better start preparing for the future.

The Fit: As the main point of this deal is to simply acquire draft picks and not for Iguodala’s talent itself, describing the fit Iggy has on this young Bucks team is a little hard, because there really isn’t one. In fact, having Iggy on the team could potentially hinder the growth of wing players Greek Freak and SF Khris Middleton (SF Jabari Parker is out for the year with an ACL injury) as Jason Kidd would be obliged to give the veteran wing defender minutes, though it likely won’t be too much of an issue. This is because Iguodala would probably take up the same amount of playing time that Mayo does right now. Iguodala himself can improve the Bucks’ already surprising season with excellent perimeter defense, intangibles, as well as an above-average offensive game. One could even make the argument that since Milwaukee is enjoying such a successful year, they should be buyers, not sellers, at the trade deadline. However, trading away future assets for a veteran, while improving the team in the present, would ruin what is currently a bright future for the Bucks. Nobody will remember or care whether they have a second-round exit this postseason or a first round exit, but a title five years from now as opposed to a mere playoff berth will be remembered forever in Milwaukee.
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