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The Dark Horses

Kawhi Leonard

8/22/2016

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Picture
Almost everyone can agree that the 25-year old Leonard is now a superstar. After all, the San Antonio Spur recently joined Michael Jordan and Hakeem Olajuwon as the only players to win both Finals MVP and DPOY (Defensive Player of the Year), and the small forward also did so as the youngest of those three. Kawhi is also the best player on a top-three team, so why hasn't he been considered as a serious MVP candidate yet?

There really is no good answer to that, other than the fact that Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, and Anthony Davis all exist. But with Durant's move to Golden State altering the scene for the first three, LeBron turning 32 mid-season, and Davis' Pelicans still sub-par, the field could really be opening up for the two-time DPOY.

Leonard is now also entering the prime of his career, and is coming off a breakout season last year: he averaged 21.2 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.8 steals and 0.7 blocks per game on 50.6/44.3/87.4 shooting splits -- nearly hitting the immortal 50/40/90 mark. This was en route to his first All-Star selection and second consecutive Defensive Player of the Year award.

Of course, the Spurs are going to have to be great in order for Kawhi to have a real shot. This, however, is merely a given, despite the fact that the legendary Tim Duncan is now retired. Duncan left the frontcourt in capable hands -- Pau Gasol and LaMarcus Aldridge form one of the league's top big man duos -- and the backcourt still features Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and Danny Green, as well as a plethora of depth up and down the roster that the great General Manager R.C Buford has equipped at the also-great Head Coach Gregg Popovich's disposal. Everything about this franchise, in fact, is simply just great.

So while there is indeed a legitimate chance that Kawhi Leonard could take home the award himself, likely a significantly greater chance than most would think, there still remains an obstacle towards Leonard winning MVP: points. Indeed, among the past ten MVPs, the scoring average has been 27.6 points per game, with none scoring less than 23.8 (Stephen Curry, 2014-15). However, Leonard's 21.2 ppg last year isn't too far behind Curry's mark, and his offensive game is rapidly improving, making the small forward a fearsome two-way threat. I'd have to give Kawhi at least a 10-15% chance of winning MVP this upcoming year.

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