Season Predictions 2016
Current seeding: 11th
Projected seeding: 10th
Many players on this roster have exceeded expectations: from role players like SF Omri Casspi to stars like PG Rajon Rondo. The only problem is that this team did not have the talent at the start of the season to begin with, as they were still deciding whether they want to rebuild without superstar C DeMarcus Cousins, or with him (seriously?). For this team to continue making progress, it is important that they hold onto their productive players, like Cousins, Gay, and Rondo, and make additions around them. That means, despite the decent play of SG Marco Belinelli, finding a long-term answer at shooting guard, because clearly Ben McLemore is not that guy. With a few smart moves (I know it’s the Kings, but it’s still possible), this team could earn their first playoff appearance since 2006 in no time.
Power Rankings
Overall Ranking: 22nd
Tier: Playoff Hopefuls
Projected Seeding: 11th in West
After years of frustration surrounding superstar C DeMarcus Cousins in Sacramento, the Kings have finally established some talent around "Boogie." Most notably, star SF Rudy Gay is still in town, and pass-happy PG Rajon Rondo was brought in from Dallas this summer. There is also a solid supporting cast: SG Ben McLemore and SG Marco Belinelli are the main shooters, while PG Darren Collison backs up (and may take the starting spot of) Rondo at the point. PF/C Kosta Koufos and rookie C Willie Cauley-Stein are the key pieces in the frontcourt rotation, along with Cousins of course. However, there is still one huge looming issue: chemistry. Cousins, while having grown past his maturity issues for the most part, still can be difficult to get along with and has repeatedly clashed with new Head Coach George Karl multiple times, who has even reportedly demanded that his superstar be traded away. Rondo was also extremely disgruntled in Dallas, while Gay is no stranger to being traded away (from both Memphis and Toronto) due to team chemistry issues. Those are the Kings' three best players right there, plus their head coach, all potentially posing problems to this team in the future, and we all know how much internal issues can really destroy a team's success from the inside. Worse yet, the Kings' history has not been so great despite Cousins' dominating presence, as a nine-year playoff drought still looms heavily over Sacramento. Still, with the talent around DeMarcus that the team does have, they'll at the very least remain in the playoff hunt, even if snapping that drought remains unlikely.
Trade Grades
Click here for link to San Antonio Spurs Trade Grades
Kings get: Spurs’ second-round pick
Spurs get: PG Ray McCallum
This one isn’t quite as bad as some of the other moves that Sacramento has done in the past couple years, but is still rather questionable. McCallum was selected by the Kings with the 36th pick in the 2013 draft, and while he’s not really classified as a steal, the 24-year-old has certainly not disappointed. The point guard averaged a decent 7.4 points and 2.8 assists per game last year as Darren Collison’s backup. Granted, McCallum’s percentages were a little below-average, and Sacramento had a logjam at point guard after signing Rajon Rondo, on top of Collison. However, throwing away a fine, early-second-round product (McCallum) in exchange for a pick in the same round (that will almost certainly be a late one) makes little sense, no matter how you look at it.
Grade: C-
Best/Worst Draft Scenarios
(#6 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Drafting PF/C Kristaps Porzingis (Latvia, 19)
Porzingis is rising quickly on draft boards, and him being available at number six would be optimal for Sacramento. They have been longing for a quality stretch-four to pair next to superstar C/PF DeMarcus Cousins that can also help take some of the load off of Cousins’ shoulders on defense. Look no further than Porzingis, a perfect match for the Kings, who can defend with the best of them (combined 2 blocks and steals per game this season in Latvia), and shoot from three-point range (a nice 37%). He has the potential to be the next Dirk Nowitzki, and perhaps a better defender than Nowitzki as well. He’s still a work in progress, as his lack of strength has limited both his rebounding and inside scoring abilities. Still, the reward greatly outweighs the risk with this international star.
Worst Case Scenario: Drafting C Willie-Cauley Stein (Kentucky, Junior)
It is rather odd that more than a few experts suggest that the Kings opt for Cauley-Stein over Porzingis here, because frankly it just makes no sense. While in theory the idea of taking the best rim protector, which would be the Kentucky product, to pair next to Cousins makes a ton of sense, the position doesn’t. Cauley-Stein plays center, and so does Cousins. It would be unnatural to have Cousins play power forward, and if the Kings are truly trying to build around their franchise star, why make him play a position that isn’t his most natural one? While Porzingis vs. Cauley-Stein in terms of which basketball player is better is an interesting debate (though it’s still probably Porzingis), Porzingis vs. Cauley-Stein in terms of who is a better fit for Sacramento is not [an interesting debate].
Draft Targets
Pick #6: Myles Turner, Power Forward/Center, Texas
A need for a quality power forward to pair next to superstar C/PF DeMarcus Cousins has been most glaring for a few years now, and Turner is the answer. Not many players can offer both quality perimeter scoring and rim protecting, but Turner does. His range is key in order to give space for Cousins to operate in the post, as is his defense – allowing Cousins to focus more on the offensive side of the ball. Though not as pro-ready as some of his fellow prospects, Turner’s ceiling is as high as anyone’s.
Season Predictions
Regular Season: Despite featuring superstar C/PF DeMarcus Cousins and star SF Rudy Gay, the Kings are still quite a ways away from making the playoffs. PG Darren Collison is injured and Cousins has also taken quite a bit of time off with injuries of his own, and that coupled with the questionable firing of Head Coach Mike Malone has taken the Kings to considerably below .500 and well out of playoff contention. Some of the younger talent may develop and bring the Kings a future postseason berth, but right now they’ll just have to spend most of April, May, and June watching from their couches.
Trade Grades
Kings get: PG Andre Miller
Wizards get: PG Ramon Sessions
Pretty meaningless swap of backup point guards here. Sessions is averaging 5.5 points on a dismal 35% shooting and 2.5 assists per game, compared to Miller’s 3.5 points on an efficient 54% shooting, while chipping in 3 assists a game. Pretty even, with Miller probably getting the slight edge due to the large discrepancy in efficiency, but it all depends on what you’re asking for from your backup point guard. Miller is on an expiring deal worth $4.6 million, while Sessions is due for a reasonable $4.15 million over the next two years. That could’ve been part of the motivation for Sacramento, clearing cap space for this offseason, but it’s unclear why exactly that would be a major motive, especially with Sessions on such a cheap deal. The fondness that newly signed Head Coach George Karl for Miller could’ve been a factor, as he was with the Nuggets during Karl’s stint there. All in all, however, not much impact for either side here.
Grade: B
One Trade That Every Team Should Do
Sacramento gets: PG Deron Williams, C Mason Plumlee, PF Mirza Teletovic
Brooklyn gets: PF Carl Landry, PF Derrick Williams, PF Jason Thompson, C Ryan Hollins
Finances, The Fit, and Why the other team does it: See Brooklyn. Also, dealing Stauskas and Derrick Williams for Thaddeus Young, as discussed in Sacramento's State of the Franchise, makes sense too.
State of the Franchise
Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $22.3 million
Background: Unfortunately for them, Sacramento has a bit of a reputation as a team that is willing to overpay or to take chances on bad contracts or declining players. Every time there is a player reportedly on the trade block, Sacramento seems interested. They have been involved in countless rumors these past couple of years, such as interest in Rondo and his expiring deal without any commitment from him to resign, interest in aging and declining PG Deron Williams from Brooklyn, and interest in Detroit's PF Josh Smith who was having a really bad season and whose departure led to a Pistons win streak, to list a few. Year after year, they seem to be stuck in the middle of the pack, not good enough to win the title and not bad enough to win the lottery. As a result, there hasn't been much of a chance to improve through the draft, and with a lot of money tied up in role players such as PFs Jason Thompson and Carl Landry, they haven't had much cap flexibility to make major moves in free agency. With superstar C DeMarcus Cousins looking like he's having a career year this year and SF Rudy Gay stepping up his game as well, Sacramento looks like they just might turn things around. With a couple more moves, they should be on their way to a long sought championship.
Current Financial State: Sacramento currently has a lot of money tied up with multiple players. Starting SF Rudy Gay is earning $13 million annually and Cousins is earning $15 million, both of whom are under contract through the 2017-18 season. Aforementioned PFs Thompson and Landry, along with newly added starting PG Darren Collison, are being paid a combined $18 million over the next three years. Their only piece of financial flexibility is PF Derrick Williams' $7 million expiring contract. With all this money owed in long term contracts, the Kings will have to look to the trade market, rather than to free agency, to find the missing piece, or pieces, for their championship team.
Targets: The main goal for the Kings this trade deadline and offseason is to acquire a proven, talented PF while unloading some bad long term contracts in the process. The best name that comes up for PFs that are on the trade block is probably Minnesota's Thaddeus Young. He has proven himself before and can fill in the hole at PF for Sacramento, but doesn't fit in well with Minnesota's young rebuilding team. Getting him from Minnesota shouldn't be much of a problem because they have the young prospects and cap filling contracts to get the deal. A package that comes up a lot in talks of a Sacramento trade is the expiring contract of PF Derrick Williams and rookie SG Nik Stauskas. With SG Ben McLemore stepping up his game after a disappointing rookie season, Sacramento has little need anymore for Stauskas and would prefer to use him in a trade for a PF. This trade works for both teams because Minnesota gets rid of Young and in return gets cap relief and a young prospect. Both teams should be willing to do the trade and as a result, don't be surprised if it really goes through.
The Fit: Thaddeus Young fits in well with Sacramento's team. Unlike the Timberwolves, Sacramento is a potential playoff team and would make much better use of Young's abilities. Young can provide low-post scoring as well as low-post defense for Sacramento. He complements star C DeMarcus Cousins, as together they will be quite a defensive pair and a dominant force on offense and on the glass as well. Young is a really talented player and will be given a chance to really prove himself after being on the horrible 76ers and the rebuilding Timberwolves. Young could very well be the player they need to push the Kings into the playoffs in a tough Western Conference.
Current seeding: 11th
Projected seeding: 10th
Many players on this roster have exceeded expectations: from role players like SF Omri Casspi to stars like PG Rajon Rondo. The only problem is that this team did not have the talent at the start of the season to begin with, as they were still deciding whether they want to rebuild without superstar C DeMarcus Cousins, or with him (seriously?). For this team to continue making progress, it is important that they hold onto their productive players, like Cousins, Gay, and Rondo, and make additions around them. That means, despite the decent play of SG Marco Belinelli, finding a long-term answer at shooting guard, because clearly Ben McLemore is not that guy. With a few smart moves (I know it’s the Kings, but it’s still possible), this team could earn their first playoff appearance since 2006 in no time.
Power Rankings
Overall Ranking: 22nd
Tier: Playoff Hopefuls
Projected Seeding: 11th in West
After years of frustration surrounding superstar C DeMarcus Cousins in Sacramento, the Kings have finally established some talent around "Boogie." Most notably, star SF Rudy Gay is still in town, and pass-happy PG Rajon Rondo was brought in from Dallas this summer. There is also a solid supporting cast: SG Ben McLemore and SG Marco Belinelli are the main shooters, while PG Darren Collison backs up (and may take the starting spot of) Rondo at the point. PF/C Kosta Koufos and rookie C Willie Cauley-Stein are the key pieces in the frontcourt rotation, along with Cousins of course. However, there is still one huge looming issue: chemistry. Cousins, while having grown past his maturity issues for the most part, still can be difficult to get along with and has repeatedly clashed with new Head Coach George Karl multiple times, who has even reportedly demanded that his superstar be traded away. Rondo was also extremely disgruntled in Dallas, while Gay is no stranger to being traded away (from both Memphis and Toronto) due to team chemistry issues. Those are the Kings' three best players right there, plus their head coach, all potentially posing problems to this team in the future, and we all know how much internal issues can really destroy a team's success from the inside. Worse yet, the Kings' history has not been so great despite Cousins' dominating presence, as a nine-year playoff drought still looms heavily over Sacramento. Still, with the talent around DeMarcus that the team does have, they'll at the very least remain in the playoff hunt, even if snapping that drought remains unlikely.
Trade Grades
Click here for link to San Antonio Spurs Trade Grades
Kings get: Spurs’ second-round pick
Spurs get: PG Ray McCallum
This one isn’t quite as bad as some of the other moves that Sacramento has done in the past couple years, but is still rather questionable. McCallum was selected by the Kings with the 36th pick in the 2013 draft, and while he’s not really classified as a steal, the 24-year-old has certainly not disappointed. The point guard averaged a decent 7.4 points and 2.8 assists per game last year as Darren Collison’s backup. Granted, McCallum’s percentages were a little below-average, and Sacramento had a logjam at point guard after signing Rajon Rondo, on top of Collison. However, throwing away a fine, early-second-round product (McCallum) in exchange for a pick in the same round (that will almost certainly be a late one) makes little sense, no matter how you look at it.
Grade: C-
Best/Worst Draft Scenarios
(#6 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Drafting PF/C Kristaps Porzingis (Latvia, 19)
Porzingis is rising quickly on draft boards, and him being available at number six would be optimal for Sacramento. They have been longing for a quality stretch-four to pair next to superstar C/PF DeMarcus Cousins that can also help take some of the load off of Cousins’ shoulders on defense. Look no further than Porzingis, a perfect match for the Kings, who can defend with the best of them (combined 2 blocks and steals per game this season in Latvia), and shoot from three-point range (a nice 37%). He has the potential to be the next Dirk Nowitzki, and perhaps a better defender than Nowitzki as well. He’s still a work in progress, as his lack of strength has limited both his rebounding and inside scoring abilities. Still, the reward greatly outweighs the risk with this international star.
Worst Case Scenario: Drafting C Willie-Cauley Stein (Kentucky, Junior)
It is rather odd that more than a few experts suggest that the Kings opt for Cauley-Stein over Porzingis here, because frankly it just makes no sense. While in theory the idea of taking the best rim protector, which would be the Kentucky product, to pair next to Cousins makes a ton of sense, the position doesn’t. Cauley-Stein plays center, and so does Cousins. It would be unnatural to have Cousins play power forward, and if the Kings are truly trying to build around their franchise star, why make him play a position that isn’t his most natural one? While Porzingis vs. Cauley-Stein in terms of which basketball player is better is an interesting debate (though it’s still probably Porzingis), Porzingis vs. Cauley-Stein in terms of who is a better fit for Sacramento is not [an interesting debate].
Draft Targets
Pick #6: Myles Turner, Power Forward/Center, Texas
A need for a quality power forward to pair next to superstar C/PF DeMarcus Cousins has been most glaring for a few years now, and Turner is the answer. Not many players can offer both quality perimeter scoring and rim protecting, but Turner does. His range is key in order to give space for Cousins to operate in the post, as is his defense – allowing Cousins to focus more on the offensive side of the ball. Though not as pro-ready as some of his fellow prospects, Turner’s ceiling is as high as anyone’s.
Season Predictions
Regular Season: Despite featuring superstar C/PF DeMarcus Cousins and star SF Rudy Gay, the Kings are still quite a ways away from making the playoffs. PG Darren Collison is injured and Cousins has also taken quite a bit of time off with injuries of his own, and that coupled with the questionable firing of Head Coach Mike Malone has taken the Kings to considerably below .500 and well out of playoff contention. Some of the younger talent may develop and bring the Kings a future postseason berth, but right now they’ll just have to spend most of April, May, and June watching from their couches.
Trade Grades
Kings get: PG Andre Miller
Wizards get: PG Ramon Sessions
Pretty meaningless swap of backup point guards here. Sessions is averaging 5.5 points on a dismal 35% shooting and 2.5 assists per game, compared to Miller’s 3.5 points on an efficient 54% shooting, while chipping in 3 assists a game. Pretty even, with Miller probably getting the slight edge due to the large discrepancy in efficiency, but it all depends on what you’re asking for from your backup point guard. Miller is on an expiring deal worth $4.6 million, while Sessions is due for a reasonable $4.15 million over the next two years. That could’ve been part of the motivation for Sacramento, clearing cap space for this offseason, but it’s unclear why exactly that would be a major motive, especially with Sessions on such a cheap deal. The fondness that newly signed Head Coach George Karl for Miller could’ve been a factor, as he was with the Nuggets during Karl’s stint there. All in all, however, not much impact for either side here.
Grade: B
One Trade That Every Team Should Do
Sacramento gets: PG Deron Williams, C Mason Plumlee, PF Mirza Teletovic
Brooklyn gets: PF Carl Landry, PF Derrick Williams, PF Jason Thompson, C Ryan Hollins
Finances, The Fit, and Why the other team does it: See Brooklyn. Also, dealing Stauskas and Derrick Williams for Thaddeus Young, as discussed in Sacramento's State of the Franchise, makes sense too.
State of the Franchise
Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $22.3 million
Background: Unfortunately for them, Sacramento has a bit of a reputation as a team that is willing to overpay or to take chances on bad contracts or declining players. Every time there is a player reportedly on the trade block, Sacramento seems interested. They have been involved in countless rumors these past couple of years, such as interest in Rondo and his expiring deal without any commitment from him to resign, interest in aging and declining PG Deron Williams from Brooklyn, and interest in Detroit's PF Josh Smith who was having a really bad season and whose departure led to a Pistons win streak, to list a few. Year after year, they seem to be stuck in the middle of the pack, not good enough to win the title and not bad enough to win the lottery. As a result, there hasn't been much of a chance to improve through the draft, and with a lot of money tied up in role players such as PFs Jason Thompson and Carl Landry, they haven't had much cap flexibility to make major moves in free agency. With superstar C DeMarcus Cousins looking like he's having a career year this year and SF Rudy Gay stepping up his game as well, Sacramento looks like they just might turn things around. With a couple more moves, they should be on their way to a long sought championship.
Current Financial State: Sacramento currently has a lot of money tied up with multiple players. Starting SF Rudy Gay is earning $13 million annually and Cousins is earning $15 million, both of whom are under contract through the 2017-18 season. Aforementioned PFs Thompson and Landry, along with newly added starting PG Darren Collison, are being paid a combined $18 million over the next three years. Their only piece of financial flexibility is PF Derrick Williams' $7 million expiring contract. With all this money owed in long term contracts, the Kings will have to look to the trade market, rather than to free agency, to find the missing piece, or pieces, for their championship team.
Targets: The main goal for the Kings this trade deadline and offseason is to acquire a proven, talented PF while unloading some bad long term contracts in the process. The best name that comes up for PFs that are on the trade block is probably Minnesota's Thaddeus Young. He has proven himself before and can fill in the hole at PF for Sacramento, but doesn't fit in well with Minnesota's young rebuilding team. Getting him from Minnesota shouldn't be much of a problem because they have the young prospects and cap filling contracts to get the deal. A package that comes up a lot in talks of a Sacramento trade is the expiring contract of PF Derrick Williams and rookie SG Nik Stauskas. With SG Ben McLemore stepping up his game after a disappointing rookie season, Sacramento has little need anymore for Stauskas and would prefer to use him in a trade for a PF. This trade works for both teams because Minnesota gets rid of Young and in return gets cap relief and a young prospect. Both teams should be willing to do the trade and as a result, don't be surprised if it really goes through.
The Fit: Thaddeus Young fits in well with Sacramento's team. Unlike the Timberwolves, Sacramento is a potential playoff team and would make much better use of Young's abilities. Young can provide low-post scoring as well as low-post defense for Sacramento. He complements star C DeMarcus Cousins, as together they will be quite a defensive pair and a dominant force on offense and on the glass as well. Young is a really talented player and will be given a chance to really prove himself after being on the horrible 76ers and the rebuilding Timberwolves. Young could very well be the player they need to push the Kings into the playoffs in a tough Western Conference.
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