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orlando magic

Season Predictions 2016

Current seeding: 11th

Projected seeding: 13th

Orlando, even several years after the ugly exit of Dwight Howard, is still a hot mess of young talent still trying to figure out what works and what doesn’t. Apparently PF/SF Tobias Harris -- shipped to Detroit for PG Brandon Jennings and PF/SF Ersan Ilyasova -- was part of the “doesn’t”, but there is still much quality youth on this team that are part of the “does”. Double-double machine C/PF Nikola Vucevic (injured) is the first name that comes to mind, as is SG/PG Victor Oladipo, even if the speedy scorer has taken a step backwards this year and is now coming off the bench. PG Elfrid Payton, while offensively challenged, has shown modest improvements in year two, as has the highly-pressured PF Aaron Gordon. The list goes on.

But only two of these players -- Vucevic and Oladipo -- are offensively capable, and are the only ones putting up at least 15 ppg. This is reflected in the offensive efficiency metric, where the Magic rank 25th in the league, and 24th in true shooting percentage -- another advanced metric that measures shooting efficiency. You need to score to win, which is part of the reason why I’m still scratching my head over the Tobias Harris trade, and most of the reason why Orlando’s playoff drought will continue (the other part being that they are several games behind the 8th seed) until the youth has been properly sorted out.

Trade Grades

Click here for link to Cleveland Cavaliers Trade Grades
Click here for link to Portland Trail Blazers Trade Grades

Cavaliers get: 
PF Channing Frye
Magic get: 
SG Jared Cunningham, second-round pick
Blazers get: 
C/PF Anderson Varejao (waived), top-10 protected 2018 first-rounder (via Cleveland)

What do you do when you trade away your best power forward (Tobias Harris)? Well, obviously, the next logical step is to trade away your second best power forward!

Wait... what?

I was among those who believed that trading away the 23 year old Harris for two veterans meant that the Magic were climbing towards "win-now" mode, rather than "win-soon". But now all of a sudden, they're trading away the solid veteran power forward, Frye, in exchange for a second-rounder and this Cunningham dude? The only possible explanation for these two moves, the only areas where they are consistent with one another, is clearing cap space. But since when has Orlando ever been a top free agent destination (Hi, Dwight Howard)?

Look, the trade itself isn't awful. Frye probably wasn't worth too much more than the second-rounder anyways. But trying to figure out the team's direction just baffles me. The front office needs to start figuring things out.


Grade: C


Trade Grades

Click here for link to Detroit Pistons Trade Grades

​Pistons get: PF/SF Tobias Harris
Magic get: PG Brandon Jennings, PF/SF Ersan Ilyasova

At 23-29 and 11th in the East, Orlando was clearly tired of the draft lottery and wanted to change things up. But was this a good change? The Magic have a very talented young core, of which the 23-year-old Harris was a featured member of, but the forward has only put up 13.7 points per game, compared to 17 per game last season, albeit steady in all other statistics. Thus management was concerned by the plateau, and felt the need to sell Harris even at the expense of breaking up the core. Questionable? Perhaps, but not entirely unreasonable.

Either way, the Magic got a decent haul in return. Ilyasova figures to be Harris' replacement in the rotation, and a solid one at that. Hitting 1.5 threes per game, Illy provides spacing for a team that has very little, and his rebounding ability is probably equal to that of Harris'. Athleticism and defense are the only areas where Orlando loses in the swap of forwards.

Jennings is a major question-mark after struggling mightily this season from his return from ACL surgery, and it also remains to be seen how he will fit behind the guard duo of Elfrid Payton and Victor Oladipo. But the point guard has potential as a triple-threat guard with his excellent scoring, ball-handling, and (when he wants to) passing abilities. When healthy, Jennings can be the offensive playmaker this team needs, and there is zero financial risk attached to his expiring $8 million contract.

Grade: B+​

Power Rankings​


Overall Ranking: 26th
Tier: Bottom Feeders
Projected Seeding: 14th in East

The Magic initially spiraled downwards after superstar C Dwight Howard forced his way out, but have finally established a very talented young core. Budding stars PG Elfrid Payton and SG Victor Oladipo make for an excellent one-two punch in the backcourt, and rookie SF/SG Mario Hezonja looks to start at small forward, unless PF/SF Aaron Gordon edges him out. The power forward and center spots feature more young studs, in PF/SF Tobias Harris and C/PF Nikola Vucevic. The depth on this team is also solid, from veterans such as PF/C Channing Frye to even more youngsters such as SG/SF Evan Fournier. Still, the average age on this team is only 25, and even younger among the highest played players in terms of minutes per game. Their playoff status will come soon, very soon, and perhaps a perennial title contender one too, considering Orlando's excellent combination of plentiful youth and talent. However, for now they'll just have to keep searching for the light at the end of the proverbial postseason tunnel.

Trade Grades

Click here for link to Miami Heat Trade Grades

Magic get: PG Shabazz Napier
Heat get: Second-round pick from Orlando (protected on numbers 31-55)

This is a curious deal from Orlando’s perspective. As that pick is protected to the point where it will never be conveyed to Miami, they got Napier for free. As he is still on a cheap rookie deal, getting the dazzling playmaker can only be a good thing, but how much of a good thing is it really? Napier was a late first-rounder in 2014, and had a decent rookie season with averages of 5.1 points and 2.5 assists per game in limited minutes with the Heat. However, there is little sense in Orlando trading for him: they already have Elfrid Payton, C.J Watson, Victor Oladipo, Evan Fournier, and others in a solid backcourt rotation. Again, this deal can only be positive, but the Magic just have little to no use for the UConn product.

Grade: B

Thanks to Caleb Pitts (@caleb.pitts) for his contribution to this trade grade


Best/Worst Draft Scenarios

(#5 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Drafting SF Justise Winslow (Duke, Freshman)

This highly probable scenario of Winslow falling to the Magic at number five, especially considering how there is a fairly clear-cut top four, is also the optimal one. Loaded with young talent up and down their roster, Orlando still has a relatively glaring hole at small forward and for outside shooting. Enter Winslow, the best small forward in the class who connected on a very impressive 42% of his threes at Duke, including a highly efficient 48.5% shooting overall. He’s not just a great three-point shooter, however, as Winslow’s defensive skills and tenacity on that end of the court have always been his calling card (combined 2.2 blocks and steals per game). Also averaging 12.5 points, 6.5 rebounds and 2 assists per game, Winslow has do-it-all written all over him.

Worst Case Scenario: Drafting another power forward

The Magic have a small, recent history of selecting a power forward in the draft to pair next to star C Nikola Vucevic. Not a bad idea, although in 2012 they selected PF Andrew Nicholson over PF/C Jared Sullinger and, although it’s too early to say, rather oddly opted for PF Aaron Gordon over PF Julius Randle last year. With it also looking more than likely that PF/SF Tobias Harris will return in free agency, the Magic have more than enough depth at power forward, especially considering Gordon’s potential. Backcourt is also not an issue, as the Magic have done a solid job of providing the electric young duo of PG Elfrid Payton and SG/PG Victor Oladipo with enough depth behind them. Considering the plethora of sensational big men that Orlando could choose from at this point ( the fast-rising PF/C Kristaps Porzingis, C Willie Cauley-Stein, PF Trey Lyles, PF/C Frank Kaminsky, etc), they must resist the temptation of drafting another big guy and instead opt to fill their most glaring hole (small forward) with the best player (SF Justise Winslow).

Draft Targets

Pick #5: Stanley Johnson, Small Forward, Arizona

With SF/PF Tobias Harris a free agent at season’s end and capable of playing power forward anyways, Johnson makes a ton of sense for Orlando here. It was a toss-up between him and Duke SF Justice Winslow, but I give Johnson the edge. At 6’7” and 245 pounds, Johnson is a mismatch nightmare for opposing teams when he slides over to shooting guard, something he is capable of doing, and also has the size to play the four. Averaging 16 points and 6.5 rebounds for one of the top teams in the country, Johnson’s combination of size, strength, and athleticism should translate to the pros nicely.

Season Predictions

Regular Season: The Magic are still in a type of tanking and rebuilding phase, even though they’re a few years removed from dealing superstar C Dwight Howard for draft picks and prospects, but they are close to winning soon. They have stockpiled young talent up and down the roster, headlined by PG Elfrid Payton, SG Victor Oladipo, PF/SF Tobias Harris, C/PF Nikola Vucevic, and more. Stil,l these kids are young and just couldn’t pile up enough wins to even remain in the playoff chase in the pathetic Eastern Conference, though some of that blame goes to ex-Head Coach Jacque Vaughn. The playoffs are certainly in sight for this young group, but definitely not this season. They should be more focused on losing than winning down the stretch

Projected Record: 28-54, 13th in East


One Trade That Every Team Should Do

Orlando gets: SG Nik Stuaskas, PF Carl Landry
Sacramento gets: PF/C Channing Frye, SG Willie Green, 2015 second-rounder (more favorable of Blazers or Bulls)


Finances: Frye and Landry both have considerably pricey contracts, while Green and Stauskas are dirt cheap. Frye is owed $32 million over the next 4 years, and there is over $21 million waiting for Landry over the course of three years. Green is on an expiring contract of just $1.4 million, and Stauskas is on his rookie deal. A couple big contracts to even each other out, and then a small contract to even out the real star of the trade in Stauskas.

The Fit: As discussed in Orlando’s State of the Franchise, Stauskas would be a great fit. He is young, so he fits in well with others, and can provide three point shooting for a tema that really lacks spacing. SG/SF Evan Fournier does pretty much exactly what Stauskas, a fantastic three point shooter at Michigan, would do, but the rookie allows Fournier to play a lot of small forward. The signing of Frye, though not to quite a bad deal, never really made sense from the start. He is too old at 31, and is preventing younger players like rookie PF Aaron Gordon from developing. Selling a starting-caliber player, as well as a role player and a second-round pick, in exchange for a top ten draft pick (Stauskas was selected eighth overall) has to be considered a win, even if it means taking on Landry’s poor contract.

Why the other team does it: For Sacramento, they get their stretch-four that they’ve dreamed of pairing next to superstar C DeMarcus Cousins. Frye is knocing down 2 threes per game this year and could really help stretch the floor for the Kings. Trading away Stauskas in favor of SG Ben McLemore and landing a player like Frye is something the Kings wanted to do anyways, and Stauskas’ disappointing rookie season makes this deal all the more easy to pull the trigger on. Making things even easier to pull the trigger is getting rid of Landry’s unsightly contract, as well as snatching a second-rounder in the process. Great move by Sacramento here, which is a phrase that you don’t hear all too often.

State of the Franchise

Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $37.9 million

Background: Everything about what the Magic are today started with the "Dwightmare." Of course, this refers to the ugly exit of superstar C Dwight Howard, who played the first eight years of his career in Orlando. Back in 2012, there had been rumors that Dwight was tired of losing and wanted out for quite some time. Finally, the Magic dealt him to the Los Angeles Lakers in a four team deal that also involved the Philadelphia 76ers and the Denver Nuggets in a blockbuster trade that also sent then-superstar C Andrew Bynum from Los Angeles to Philadelphia and star SG/SF Andre Iguodala from Philadelphia to Denver. The following year, the Lakers lost Howard to Houston in free agency, Denver let Iguodala walk to Golden State, and Bynum turned out to be very injury prone and the Sixers just didn't even want him anymore. The Magic received all sorts of draft picks and prospects from Denver in particular, including star C Nikola Vucevic and SF Moe Harkless who are still with the team right now and are part of the team’s future. Following the trade, Orlando proceeded to strip themselves of their title-contending identity with no superstar to lead the way. The Magic let both PG Jameer Nelson and PF Ryan Anderson walk in free agency, while SG JJ Reddick was dealt to Milwaukee in a deal that brought young prospect SF Tobias Harris to Orlando. This post-Dwight era for Orlando is a tough one, as there's a lot of tanking and rebuilding happening, with plenty of prospects to show for the past couple of years of futility. The Magic figure to have their backcourt for the future established, with dynamic young guards, rookie PG Elfrid Payton and SG Victor Oladipo running the show. SF's Tobias Harris and Moe Harkless, Harris in particular, will likely hold down the three-spot for the next decade to come. Vucevic could pair nicely with rookie PF Aaron Gordon, though Gordon remains out for the season with an injury. Everyone in the Magic's core is very young and on their cheap rookie-scale contracts still, though the team does have spacing issues at the moment. Despite the odd signing of veteran PF Channing Frye and the firing of head coach Jacque Vaughn after a lack of success, the future remains very bright. It won't be long before the magic returns to Orlando (pun intended).

Current Financial State: As mentioned above, most of the Magic's players are on their rookie-scale contracts, so that leaves them with a lot of cap space. The only major commitment going beyond this season is to veteran PF Channing Frye, who was handed a 4 year/$32 million deal by the Magic last year. The deal isn't disastrous, though it is quite pricey, especially for a 31 year old who is a solid decade older than most of the other players. Either way, Frye is an impact player, and should be useful as this team starts to get more interest in winning than losing in the coming years. The Magic still have tons of cap flexibility with all their rookie-scale contracts, with just $59.6 million committed this year and $38.8 million next year. That is when Vucevic's new 4 year/$48 million extension kicks in, which is starting to look like a steal right now, but it is also where SF/PF Tobias Harris must get an extension of his own, as he becomes a restricted free agent this offseason. It is vital that Orlando retains a key member of their core.

Targets: As mentioned above, it is crucial that Harris sticks around in unrestricted free agency, as he could represent the future at either forward position. Averaging 17.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, and a three and a steal in 34.5 minutes per game, Harris is certainly worth his $12 million asking price. He declined a 4 year/$36 million extension offer before the season, an offer that seemed fair at the time, but after the season he is putting together, he looks to be worth considerably more. A 4 year/$48 million deal, especially considering the Knicks' reported interest, will likely be in the cards. However, Harris will not do too much to solve Orlando's spacing issues. But SG Nik Stauskas can. The rookie was drafted #8 overall this year by the Sacramento Kings, and is putting together a very disappointing campaign, averaging just 3 points on 33.5% shooting in just 14 minutes a game so far. However, the Kings have reportedly put the Michigan product on the trading block in an effort to find a quality PF to put next to franchise centerpiece C DeMarcus Cousins. Stauskas, regarded as one of the best shooters in the whole rookie class, would be a perfect buy-low option for Orlando right now, as they can afford to take on the risk that he just might be just a total bust. In turn, Orlando would send Frye as well as veteran SG Willie Green to Sacramento, and they would probably have to throw in a second-rounder to get the Kings to bite. The Magic would also have to take on PF Carl Landry's pricey contract, as he has 3 years/$20 million remaining on his deal, despite only averaging 8 points and 4.5 rebounds per game, though he is shooting a very efficient 53% from the field. For Sacramento, Frye is a proven stretch-four who can defend and provide key floor spacing for Sacramento, which is exactly what the Kings have been reportedly interested in at power forward. Willie Green is also a nice buy-low option, as he's making just $1.5 million on an expiring deal. Getting rid of Thompson's ugly contract also helps, as does the second-rounder. The Kings have been trying to get rid of their failed rookie all season long in favor of young SG Ben Mclemore, and this trade is a perfect opportunity to do so. For Orlando, Stauskas represents a great low-risk/high-reward option at this point.

The Fit: Harris' fit is undeniable, as he's pretty much the "1b" to Vucevic's "1a" in terms of go-to options on offense, as well as being able to play either forward position. His defense is well above-average, his potential is high, the intangibles are there, and you just can't blame him for Orlando's floor-spacing issues. Harris could very well end up being the best player on this team in a little while, and the Magic simply cannot afford to let him walk. Stauskas, on the other hand, has a more disputable fit. One could argue that SG Evan Fournier is already doing exactly what Stauskas would be asked to do in Orlando, and technically they would be right. However, having extra depth at shooting guard would allow starting SG Victor Oladipo to shift over to point guard occasionally, something he's easily capable of doing, and that would give PG Elfrid Payton a breather. In addition, Fournier is 6’7” and Stauskas is 6’6”, so it's not as if either player can’t shift over to play small forward, Orlando's weakest position. Besides, when did some extra floor spacing ever hurt anyone? Losing Frye definitely hurts, as does slightly the second round pick for a rebuilding team, but the $8 million that Orlando would save by shipping Frye to Sacramento can be put to better use, namely to a guy that is not a full decade older than the other key players. Stauskas represents an upgrade over SG Ben Gordon on the depth chart at the two, and it's really PF Jason Thompson's contract that hurts the most in this deal. The 28-year-old is due for roughly $20 million over the next three years, but it's not as if Orlando is dying for that money anyways. The key aspect here is that Thompson's contract is worth a couple million less annually than Frye, as well as being a contract that expires one year earlier. Thompson could come in and battle for some minutes at power forward along with Aaron Gordon and others, as he is averaging 5.5 points and 6.5 rebounds in 25 minutes per game this season, though his role in Orlando would be minimal. The shooting needs to be addressed in Orlando, and buying low on Stauskas is the perfect way to do that.

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