Season Predictions 2016
Current seeding: 5th
Projected seeding: 5th
Wow, talk about taking some hits and staying on your feet. Star C Marc Gasol’s suffered a season-ending injury, PG Mike Conley and PF Zach Randolph missed significant time as well, and the other two members of their starting five -- SG Courtney Lee and SF Jeff Green -- got traded away for mere future assets because the front office thought the team was essentially done after all the injuries. Yeah, about that…
Behind the excellent play of guys like PF JaMychal Green (exactly) and newcomer SG/SF Lance Stephenson (yes, that Lance Stephenson. Yes, I'm serious. No, really), Memphis has actually kept their 5-spot out West over teams led by Damian Lillard (PG, POR) and James Harden (SG, HOU). How's that for impressive?
First round: Los Angeles Clippers (4)
Unfortunately for them, however, it is hard to imagine a team led by role-players triumphing over the mighty Clipper-machine. Randolph will likely be healthy by this point, but c’mon. Can you imagine Briante Weber, literally the starting point guard for Memphis, doing anything against LA superstar PG Chris Paul? Up front, even if PF Blake Griffin isn't healthy yet, it is very hard to imagine the Grizzlies getting much anything going against C DeAndre Jordan. On the wing, SF Jeff Green is now wearing the opposite uniform after being traded for Memphis, and looks to light it up on his former team. Great Cinderella story of role players stepping up, but a tough reality of superstars clamping down.
Prediction: Los Angeles wins, 4-0
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Los Angeles Clippers Trade Grades
Clippers get: SF Jeff Green
Grizzlies get: SG Lance Stephenson, 2019 first-rounder
I get it, I really do. Star C Marc Gasol recently went down with a season-ending injury, and since then, Memphis has dealt away their top two wing-men: SG Courtney Lee, and now Green. It really is a shame too, because Green was putting up a solid 12.2 points and 4.5 rebounds per game and had been a very steady contributor for the Grizzlies.
But naturally, if you're going to semi-tank and trade away your core pieces, you'd expect a good return, right? Unfortunately, Memphis got Lance Stephenson instead. Joking, but Stephenson is still only averaging a mere 4.5 points per game this season, and by no means holds a candle to a productive player like Green anymore. Stephenson's contract is expiring this season, and after his failures in both Charlotte and LA, that's probably a good thing for Memphis. As for the pick, it's nice, but it's well into the future and has protections. Not exactly the haul that the Grizzlies should've been looking for.
Grade: C
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Charlotte Hornets Trade Grades
Click here for link to Miami Heat Trade Grades
Grizzlies get: C/PF Chris Andersen, SG/SF P.J Hairston, 2 second-round picks (via Miami), 2 second-round picks (via Charlotte)
Heat get: PG Brian Roberts
Hornets get: SG Courtney Lee
Translation: Memphis is throwing in the towel on this season, in wake of star C Marc Gasol being done for the year. How do I know? Well, the Grizzlies already rank 27th in the league in outside shooting, Lee was by far their best outside shooter, and the four teams to make the conference finals last season ranked top 5 in outside shooting (ie: there's a strong correlation between threes and wins). Connect the dots: this trade wasn't about winning games this season.
But it's about winning games in the future, while also still remaining competitive now. Hairston was a former first-round pick and is still only 23, meaning there is a glimmer of hope for potential. Albeit disappointing so far, he does a little bit (6 points, 1.1 threes per game) to fill Lee's void. Andersen was really just a cap-filler, but with Gasol injured, the Grizzlies could use an extra big man anyways.
Still, the real prize of this deal for Memphis are the draft picks. In a league of uncertainty, the value of draft picks are at an all-time high. Four second-round picks! Four! You could, like, trade those to the 76ers for their entire roster (kidding... kind of).
They gave a lot, but they got a lot too.
Grade: A-
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Charlotte Hornets Trade Grades
Click here for link to Miami Heat Trade Grades
Grizzlies get: C/PF Chris Andersen, SG/SF P.J Hairston, 2 second-round picks (via Miami), 2 second-round picks (via Charlotte)
Heat get: PG Brian Roberts
Hornets get: SG Courtney Lee
Translation: Memphis is throwing in the towel on this season, in wake of star C Marc Gasol being done year. How do I know? Well, the Grizzlies already rank 27th in the league in outside shooting, Lee was by far their best outside shooter, and the four teams to make the conference finals last season ranked top 5 in outside shooting (ie: there's a strong correlation between threes and wins). Connect the dots: this trade wasn't about winning games this season.
But it's about winning games in the future, while also still remaining competitive now. Hairston was a former first-round pick and is still only 23, meaning there is a glimmer of hope for potential. Albeit disappointing so far, he does a little bit (6 points, 1.1 threes per game) to fill Lee's void. Andersen was really just a cap-filler, but with Gasol injured, the Grizzlies could use an extra big man anyways.
Still, the real prize of this deal for Memphis are the draft picks. In a league of uncertainty, the value of draft picks are at an all-time high. Four second-round picks! Four! You could, like, trade those to the 76ers for their entire roster (kidding... kind of).
They gave a lot, but they got a lot too.
Grade: A-
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Miami Heat Trade Grades
Heat get: PG/SG Beno Udrih, PF/C Jarnell Stoks
Grizzlies get: PG Mario Chalmers, SF James Ennis
Something needed to change in Memphis, and something needed to change fast. After winning 56, 50, and 55 games in the last three seasons, respectively, the Grizzlies are off to an alarming 3-5 start in which superstar C Marc Gasol has not been playing up to his high standards. If you ask me, it's because they've fallen too far behind modern basketball: in an era in which there is a glaring correlation between fast-pace and shooting threes to success, Memphis still employs this 'Grit-n-Grind' strategy of playing in the half-court, milking the shot clock, and giving the ball to their big men down low. While it has worked in the past, it may be time to call into question if that style of play works anymore, although we are only 8 games in. No matter where you stand on that issue, however, you can agree that Memphis made a step in the right direction here. Although struggling with his shot over the past couple of seasons, PG/SG Mario Chalmers is still a career 36% three-point shooter, and an upgrade from backup PG Beno Udrih. PF/C Jarnell Stokes was also rather expendable with the large amount of frontcourt depth, so the Grizzlies gave up very little to snag Chalmers, taking advantage of Miami's tough financial position. Chalmers will help, but not fix, Memphis' long-ball (or lack of them, rather) problem by playing behind star PG Mike Conley
Grade: A-
Power Rankings
Overall Rank: 7th
Tier: Title Contenders
Projected Seeding: 6th in West
Once again, Memphis comes out of the offseason with almost the exact same roster as the year before. And for a team that won 55 games last year, that should be considered a good thing. The Grizzlies retained their big man duo of All-NBA C Marc Gasol and star PF Zach Randolph, arguably the team’s two best players. The squad also features star PG Mike Conley and a variety of decent wing players: SF Jeff Green, SG Courtney Lee, SG Tony Allen, SG/SF Vince Carter, SF Matt Barnes, and more. Known for their “Grit ‘n Grind” style of play, the Grizzlies have always (rather fittingly, given their team name) been a very physical team, excelling on defense, low-post scoring, and rebounding. Notably not on this list, however, is three-point shooting, the recent phenomenon in today’s NBA. Nowadays, there is a glaring correlation between success from beyond the arc, and winning. Still, Memphis finished just 29th out of the 30 teams in the league in three-point attempts last season, and they still have a few guys like Tony Allen who are huge liabilities from downtown. Obviously, the Grizzlies will still be a title contender as they have the same team as their 55-win one from last year, and they do also have a couple of solid shooters as well. But for the team to make the final leap from title contender to title winners, they’re going to have to get with the program and start launching up more long balls. Hey, Memphis: The 1970s called, they want their play style back.
Best/Worst Draft Scenarios
(#25 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Drafting PF Montrezl Harrell (Louisville, Junior)
At a glance, wing might appear to be the more pressing need. However, all of Memphis’ shooting guards and small forwards are still under contract, and the mid-season acquisition of SF Jeff Green did a lot to ease the pain of the lack of shooters on the wing. On the other hand, the Grizzlies’ three best big men (superstar C Marc Gasol, star PF Zach Randolph, and PF/C Kosta Koufos) all hit free agency, and that’s not even to mention Gasol and Randolph’s ages (30 and 33, respectively). There’s no major need really, but adding a youthful big man is certainly a want, and that’s where Harrell comes in. Though undersized (6’8”), the power forward makes up for his small frame with his high motor in all facets of his game. His energy and athleticism helped him average 15.7 points per game, but his developing jump-shot is still inconsistent, making his somewhat of a wild-card in terms of what he can be offensively. There’s no doubt about his defensive or rebounding abilities, however, as he excels in both those departments -- again, due to his motor. He’s also a poor free throw shooter at just 60%, in addition to not having too much potential in the long run. His small frame can only overshadow his energy and skillset so much, and he’s bound to play a key role for the Grizzlies in both the short and long-term.
Worst Case Scenario: Harrell is gone; Memphis doesn’t get their choice of wing players
If Harrell is gone, Memphis should pass on a big man. The only other viable option is PF/C Christian Wood, who could have high potential long-term, but can produce little to nothing immediately. Given the Grizzlies’ contender status, they’re going to look for instant contributors. With their next biggest need being wing shooting, they’ll probably look towards the plethora of wings at this point in the draft: SG R.J. Hunter, SG Rashad Vaughn, SF Justin Anderson, and SF Rondae-Hollis Jefferson. Thankfully for them, they’re right in position to nab one of these guys when there will only be one or two of them left on the board. However, it would be optimal for them to get the best fit, and that would be Anderson: a perfect complimentary “3 and D” player that can play well with Memphis’ stars. However, odds are he’s gone by then and the Grizzlies could be forced to select a long-term project that can’t contribute right away (like Vaughn) -- a worst case scenario.
Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams
Perhaps the most overlooked team in basketball now that the Spurs are getting more acknowledgement, Memphis is a loaded team that knows their identity and has a better chance than you think of taking home the hardware this year. Superstar C Marc Gasol could be the best player on the floor at any given time in the playoffs, and we know how reliable stars PG Mike Conley and PF Zach Randolph are, as well as the bench. SF Jeff Green is the big wild card, but if he can really light it up and become that second or third option on offense, the Grizzlies could easily go all the way.
Draft Targets
Pick #28: R.J Hunter, Shooting Guard, Georgia State,
The Grizzlies could go a number of different ways here, but finding the best three-point shooter available would address the biggest need. That’s R.J Hunter, and there isn’t much doubt about that. Though playing against weaker competition for most of the season, Hunter has been averaging 2.3 threes this year as part of his 20 points per contest. Though his shooting percentages aren’t as high as one would like, he also chips in 5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 2 steals a game. He’s a very complete offensive player, and could do wonders for Memphis’ continuous struggles from beyond the arc.
Season Predictions
Regular Season: The Grizzlies, though overlooked, have the third-best record in the league and that doesn’t figure to change anytime soon. The “Grit ‘n Grind” as they’ve been called has been exactly that, with excellent defensive play lead by star PG Mike Conley and Defensive Player of the Year-frontrunner superstar C Marc Gasol, as well as others. Forwards Jeff Green and Zach Randolph carry a large portion of the scoring load on offense, though Gasol and Conley are still the team’s leading scorers, with a lot of Randolph’s contributions coming from his rebounding. Also boasting a flurry of defenders and three-point shooters on the wing, this team is legit. Don’t overlook them, especially if they’re able to pull through with a record like this in a stacked division in a stacked conference.
Projected Record: 57-25
Playoffs Round One
Memphis Grizzlies (#2) vs. San Antonio Spurs (#7)
Hey look! It’s the battle of the overlooked teams that nobody thinks will succeed or likes watching, yet always gets proved wrong by! This is more true for the Spurs, but still applies both ways. San Antonio has been a consistently dominant team for quite a few years now, despite always getting written off and never really boasting a true superstar. Memphis has one in Gasol, however, and still has a second-unit that’s almost as good as San Antonio’s, while also having team chemistry that’s almost as good as the defending champion’s. The Grizzlies’ starting five is significantly better, and I know I’m sounding like every sports writer from the past decade, but the Spurs are looking a step slow this year, star PG Tony Parker in particular. It’s not just stuff that genius Head Coach Gregg Popovich can cure. These are legitimate problems, and against a legitimate team.
Series Prediction: Memphis wins 4-3
Playoffs Round Two
Memphis Grizzlies (#2) vs. Houston Rockets (#3)
This is an exciting matchup, and as the entire lower half of the Western Conference bracket were teams from the Southwest Division, we get some sort of division rivalry here. Gasol vs. superstar C Dwight Howard is sure to be a thrilling matchup down low, as is whoever the Rockets throw out at power forward, likely Josh Smith, vs. Randolph. Rockets PG Patrick Beverley should be able to hold his own guarding against Conley, SF Trevor Ariza can guard pretty much anybody and stretch the floor, and this all leaves the door open for my MVP vote superstar SG James Harden to take over this series. If the defensive stalwarts surrounding him -- Beverley, Ariza, Smith, Howard and other off the bench in a fantastic second-unit-- can contain the Grizzlies offense, then this is just Harden’s series. SG Tony Allen should be able to do a lot to contain him for Memphis, but there’s just no stopping Harden, who is the league’s leading scorer this season. If the Grizzlies can’t get things going on offense and can’t contain Harden, since they’re second-unit is at most equal, they’re going to have a tough time winning this series despite their “Grit ‘n Grind” style of excellent defense and rebounding.
Series Prediction: Houston wins 4-3
One Trade That Every Team Should Do
Memphis gets: SF Solomon Hill
Indiana gets: SG Jordan Adams, 2017 second-rounder (less favorable of Celtics or Raptors)
Finances: Both Adams and Hill are still on their rookie deals, so there’s not a lot to see here. They’re both due for $1.3 million next year and $1.4 million the year after that, as they were actually taken with back-to back picks in the 2013 draft. Adams went 22nd and Hill 23rd, but Hill has certainly outperformed Adams, which is why you see the second-rounder thrown in there.
The Fit: For Memphis, this is all about adding more wing depth and acquiring another shooter. Trading for SF/PF Jeff Green with Boston certainly helped, though more must be done about the lack of depth behind him and how devoid this team is of shooters. Hill can help solve this problem, as he is knocking down a three per game to go with 10 points and 4 rebounds, and could be had for cheap. Adams has never really made an impact anyways, and the second-rounder is of little use to a playoff team like Memphis. Hill is certainly a luxury for the Grizzlies, but it’s one that they can afford.
Why the other team does it: This is a very small trade for Indiana, as Hill never really had a major role in the long-term mold of the franchise. Adams has about as much upside as him anyways, so it’s pretty much as if the Pacers are getting a free second-rounder in this trade. The real test for Indiana will begin when superstar SF/SG Paul George returns from his injury, where they will resume their quest for the championship after a one year layoff.
State of the Franchise
Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $41.8 million
Background: In 2001, the Grizzlies drafted PF Pau Gasol with the third overall pick. He went on to win Rookie of the Year, setting as many as 12 franchise records on the way. Then, in 2007, they drafted PG Mike Conley with the fourth overall pick and traded Pau to the Lakers for a package including the draft rights to Pau's younger brother, C Marc Gasol, among others. In 2009, they traded F Quentin Richardson for PF Zach Randolph. Marc Gasol went on to the win Defensive Player of the Year in 2013, en route to a 56-26 record, the best mark in franchise history. The Grizzlies have made the playoffs for the past four years, including a Western Conference Finals appearance in that epic 2013 season, where they were swept by the San Antonio Spurs. Now they are one of the top teams in the West, thanks to All-Star play from Marc Gasol, and amazing play from Randolph and Conley as well. They recently traded role players and draft picks to acquire SF Jeff Green from the Boston Celtics to fill their gap at SF. With a veteran team, Memphis is looking like true contenders led by a starting five full of defensive studs, comprised of Conley, SG Tony Allen, Green, Randolph, and Gasol.
Current Financial State: The Grizzlies currently have $75 million in contracts right now but are projected to have only $35 million on the books for next year. This is mainly because both Gasol and Randolph's $16 million contracts are expiring and Jeff Green has a $9 million player option, which he is likely to accept. Conley’s $9 million contract is an absolute steal as well. With Gasol and Randolph being their only major free agents, the Grizzlies will likely be looking to keep them in free agency this year.
Targets: With the team performing at such a high level, their only major targets this offseason will likely be to keep their core free agents, Randolph and Gasol. Both, however, are likely to receive offers from many other teams, although Gasol has drawn more interest. Some likely suitors for Gasol include the New York Knicks and Los Angeles Lakers. Both teams are looking to add some star power and both will also have a lot of money to spend this offseason. Because of all the reported interest, Gasol will likely be the top priority for the Grizzlies. They will likely try to re-sign him for something around 4 years/$80+ million. Hopefully they won't be forced to pay even more to keep him away from the big market teams looking to get him. Randolph is due for a 2 year/$24 million deal, which he will probably get from Memphis. With the money they have available, the Grizzlies will look to keep their star big men around.
The Fit: Gasol and Randolph's fit with the Grizzlies is very well explained by their current play on the court, as well as the Grizzlies’ current record. Clearly, they complement each other really well, with Randolph taking a major scoring load and doing a lot of the rebounding, while Gasol just seems to do it all. Even though they are getting older, their level of play has certainly not declined and they are still performing at an All-Star level. The Grizzlies would absolutely love to keep both of them, because they are the heart of this Memphis team. If they keep up their level of play for the rest of the season, they will be a greatly feared team come playoff time.
Current seeding: 5th
Projected seeding: 5th
Wow, talk about taking some hits and staying on your feet. Star C Marc Gasol’s suffered a season-ending injury, PG Mike Conley and PF Zach Randolph missed significant time as well, and the other two members of their starting five -- SG Courtney Lee and SF Jeff Green -- got traded away for mere future assets because the front office thought the team was essentially done after all the injuries. Yeah, about that…
Behind the excellent play of guys like PF JaMychal Green (exactly) and newcomer SG/SF Lance Stephenson (yes, that Lance Stephenson. Yes, I'm serious. No, really), Memphis has actually kept their 5-spot out West over teams led by Damian Lillard (PG, POR) and James Harden (SG, HOU). How's that for impressive?
First round: Los Angeles Clippers (4)
Unfortunately for them, however, it is hard to imagine a team led by role-players triumphing over the mighty Clipper-machine. Randolph will likely be healthy by this point, but c’mon. Can you imagine Briante Weber, literally the starting point guard for Memphis, doing anything against LA superstar PG Chris Paul? Up front, even if PF Blake Griffin isn't healthy yet, it is very hard to imagine the Grizzlies getting much anything going against C DeAndre Jordan. On the wing, SF Jeff Green is now wearing the opposite uniform after being traded for Memphis, and looks to light it up on his former team. Great Cinderella story of role players stepping up, but a tough reality of superstars clamping down.
Prediction: Los Angeles wins, 4-0
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Los Angeles Clippers Trade Grades
Clippers get: SF Jeff Green
Grizzlies get: SG Lance Stephenson, 2019 first-rounder
I get it, I really do. Star C Marc Gasol recently went down with a season-ending injury, and since then, Memphis has dealt away their top two wing-men: SG Courtney Lee, and now Green. It really is a shame too, because Green was putting up a solid 12.2 points and 4.5 rebounds per game and had been a very steady contributor for the Grizzlies.
But naturally, if you're going to semi-tank and trade away your core pieces, you'd expect a good return, right? Unfortunately, Memphis got Lance Stephenson instead. Joking, but Stephenson is still only averaging a mere 4.5 points per game this season, and by no means holds a candle to a productive player like Green anymore. Stephenson's contract is expiring this season, and after his failures in both Charlotte and LA, that's probably a good thing for Memphis. As for the pick, it's nice, but it's well into the future and has protections. Not exactly the haul that the Grizzlies should've been looking for.
Grade: C
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Charlotte Hornets Trade Grades
Click here for link to Miami Heat Trade Grades
Grizzlies get: C/PF Chris Andersen, SG/SF P.J Hairston, 2 second-round picks (via Miami), 2 second-round picks (via Charlotte)
Heat get: PG Brian Roberts
Hornets get: SG Courtney Lee
Translation: Memphis is throwing in the towel on this season, in wake of star C Marc Gasol being done for the year. How do I know? Well, the Grizzlies already rank 27th in the league in outside shooting, Lee was by far their best outside shooter, and the four teams to make the conference finals last season ranked top 5 in outside shooting (ie: there's a strong correlation between threes and wins). Connect the dots: this trade wasn't about winning games this season.
But it's about winning games in the future, while also still remaining competitive now. Hairston was a former first-round pick and is still only 23, meaning there is a glimmer of hope for potential. Albeit disappointing so far, he does a little bit (6 points, 1.1 threes per game) to fill Lee's void. Andersen was really just a cap-filler, but with Gasol injured, the Grizzlies could use an extra big man anyways.
Still, the real prize of this deal for Memphis are the draft picks. In a league of uncertainty, the value of draft picks are at an all-time high. Four second-round picks! Four! You could, like, trade those to the 76ers for their entire roster (kidding... kind of).
They gave a lot, but they got a lot too.
Grade: A-
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Charlotte Hornets Trade Grades
Click here for link to Miami Heat Trade Grades
Grizzlies get: C/PF Chris Andersen, SG/SF P.J Hairston, 2 second-round picks (via Miami), 2 second-round picks (via Charlotte)
Heat get: PG Brian Roberts
Hornets get: SG Courtney Lee
Translation: Memphis is throwing in the towel on this season, in wake of star C Marc Gasol being done year. How do I know? Well, the Grizzlies already rank 27th in the league in outside shooting, Lee was by far their best outside shooter, and the four teams to make the conference finals last season ranked top 5 in outside shooting (ie: there's a strong correlation between threes and wins). Connect the dots: this trade wasn't about winning games this season.
But it's about winning games in the future, while also still remaining competitive now. Hairston was a former first-round pick and is still only 23, meaning there is a glimmer of hope for potential. Albeit disappointing so far, he does a little bit (6 points, 1.1 threes per game) to fill Lee's void. Andersen was really just a cap-filler, but with Gasol injured, the Grizzlies could use an extra big man anyways.
Still, the real prize of this deal for Memphis are the draft picks. In a league of uncertainty, the value of draft picks are at an all-time high. Four second-round picks! Four! You could, like, trade those to the 76ers for their entire roster (kidding... kind of).
They gave a lot, but they got a lot too.
Grade: A-
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Miami Heat Trade Grades
Heat get: PG/SG Beno Udrih, PF/C Jarnell Stoks
Grizzlies get: PG Mario Chalmers, SF James Ennis
Something needed to change in Memphis, and something needed to change fast. After winning 56, 50, and 55 games in the last three seasons, respectively, the Grizzlies are off to an alarming 3-5 start in which superstar C Marc Gasol has not been playing up to his high standards. If you ask me, it's because they've fallen too far behind modern basketball: in an era in which there is a glaring correlation between fast-pace and shooting threes to success, Memphis still employs this 'Grit-n-Grind' strategy of playing in the half-court, milking the shot clock, and giving the ball to their big men down low. While it has worked in the past, it may be time to call into question if that style of play works anymore, although we are only 8 games in. No matter where you stand on that issue, however, you can agree that Memphis made a step in the right direction here. Although struggling with his shot over the past couple of seasons, PG/SG Mario Chalmers is still a career 36% three-point shooter, and an upgrade from backup PG Beno Udrih. PF/C Jarnell Stokes was also rather expendable with the large amount of frontcourt depth, so the Grizzlies gave up very little to snag Chalmers, taking advantage of Miami's tough financial position. Chalmers will help, but not fix, Memphis' long-ball (or lack of them, rather) problem by playing behind star PG Mike Conley
Grade: A-
Power Rankings
Overall Rank: 7th
Tier: Title Contenders
Projected Seeding: 6th in West
Once again, Memphis comes out of the offseason with almost the exact same roster as the year before. And for a team that won 55 games last year, that should be considered a good thing. The Grizzlies retained their big man duo of All-NBA C Marc Gasol and star PF Zach Randolph, arguably the team’s two best players. The squad also features star PG Mike Conley and a variety of decent wing players: SF Jeff Green, SG Courtney Lee, SG Tony Allen, SG/SF Vince Carter, SF Matt Barnes, and more. Known for their “Grit ‘n Grind” style of play, the Grizzlies have always (rather fittingly, given their team name) been a very physical team, excelling on defense, low-post scoring, and rebounding. Notably not on this list, however, is three-point shooting, the recent phenomenon in today’s NBA. Nowadays, there is a glaring correlation between success from beyond the arc, and winning. Still, Memphis finished just 29th out of the 30 teams in the league in three-point attempts last season, and they still have a few guys like Tony Allen who are huge liabilities from downtown. Obviously, the Grizzlies will still be a title contender as they have the same team as their 55-win one from last year, and they do also have a couple of solid shooters as well. But for the team to make the final leap from title contender to title winners, they’re going to have to get with the program and start launching up more long balls. Hey, Memphis: The 1970s called, they want their play style back.
Best/Worst Draft Scenarios
(#25 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Drafting PF Montrezl Harrell (Louisville, Junior)
At a glance, wing might appear to be the more pressing need. However, all of Memphis’ shooting guards and small forwards are still under contract, and the mid-season acquisition of SF Jeff Green did a lot to ease the pain of the lack of shooters on the wing. On the other hand, the Grizzlies’ three best big men (superstar C Marc Gasol, star PF Zach Randolph, and PF/C Kosta Koufos) all hit free agency, and that’s not even to mention Gasol and Randolph’s ages (30 and 33, respectively). There’s no major need really, but adding a youthful big man is certainly a want, and that’s where Harrell comes in. Though undersized (6’8”), the power forward makes up for his small frame with his high motor in all facets of his game. His energy and athleticism helped him average 15.7 points per game, but his developing jump-shot is still inconsistent, making his somewhat of a wild-card in terms of what he can be offensively. There’s no doubt about his defensive or rebounding abilities, however, as he excels in both those departments -- again, due to his motor. He’s also a poor free throw shooter at just 60%, in addition to not having too much potential in the long run. His small frame can only overshadow his energy and skillset so much, and he’s bound to play a key role for the Grizzlies in both the short and long-term.
Worst Case Scenario: Harrell is gone; Memphis doesn’t get their choice of wing players
If Harrell is gone, Memphis should pass on a big man. The only other viable option is PF/C Christian Wood, who could have high potential long-term, but can produce little to nothing immediately. Given the Grizzlies’ contender status, they’re going to look for instant contributors. With their next biggest need being wing shooting, they’ll probably look towards the plethora of wings at this point in the draft: SG R.J. Hunter, SG Rashad Vaughn, SF Justin Anderson, and SF Rondae-Hollis Jefferson. Thankfully for them, they’re right in position to nab one of these guys when there will only be one or two of them left on the board. However, it would be optimal for them to get the best fit, and that would be Anderson: a perfect complimentary “3 and D” player that can play well with Memphis’ stars. However, odds are he’s gone by then and the Grizzlies could be forced to select a long-term project that can’t contribute right away (like Vaughn) -- a worst case scenario.
Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams
Perhaps the most overlooked team in basketball now that the Spurs are getting more acknowledgement, Memphis is a loaded team that knows their identity and has a better chance than you think of taking home the hardware this year. Superstar C Marc Gasol could be the best player on the floor at any given time in the playoffs, and we know how reliable stars PG Mike Conley and PF Zach Randolph are, as well as the bench. SF Jeff Green is the big wild card, but if he can really light it up and become that second or third option on offense, the Grizzlies could easily go all the way.
Draft Targets
Pick #28: R.J Hunter, Shooting Guard, Georgia State,
The Grizzlies could go a number of different ways here, but finding the best three-point shooter available would address the biggest need. That’s R.J Hunter, and there isn’t much doubt about that. Though playing against weaker competition for most of the season, Hunter has been averaging 2.3 threes this year as part of his 20 points per contest. Though his shooting percentages aren’t as high as one would like, he also chips in 5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 2 steals a game. He’s a very complete offensive player, and could do wonders for Memphis’ continuous struggles from beyond the arc.
Season Predictions
Regular Season: The Grizzlies, though overlooked, have the third-best record in the league and that doesn’t figure to change anytime soon. The “Grit ‘n Grind” as they’ve been called has been exactly that, with excellent defensive play lead by star PG Mike Conley and Defensive Player of the Year-frontrunner superstar C Marc Gasol, as well as others. Forwards Jeff Green and Zach Randolph carry a large portion of the scoring load on offense, though Gasol and Conley are still the team’s leading scorers, with a lot of Randolph’s contributions coming from his rebounding. Also boasting a flurry of defenders and three-point shooters on the wing, this team is legit. Don’t overlook them, especially if they’re able to pull through with a record like this in a stacked division in a stacked conference.
Projected Record: 57-25
Playoffs Round One
Memphis Grizzlies (#2) vs. San Antonio Spurs (#7)
Hey look! It’s the battle of the overlooked teams that nobody thinks will succeed or likes watching, yet always gets proved wrong by! This is more true for the Spurs, but still applies both ways. San Antonio has been a consistently dominant team for quite a few years now, despite always getting written off and never really boasting a true superstar. Memphis has one in Gasol, however, and still has a second-unit that’s almost as good as San Antonio’s, while also having team chemistry that’s almost as good as the defending champion’s. The Grizzlies’ starting five is significantly better, and I know I’m sounding like every sports writer from the past decade, but the Spurs are looking a step slow this year, star PG Tony Parker in particular. It’s not just stuff that genius Head Coach Gregg Popovich can cure. These are legitimate problems, and against a legitimate team.
Series Prediction: Memphis wins 4-3
Playoffs Round Two
Memphis Grizzlies (#2) vs. Houston Rockets (#3)
This is an exciting matchup, and as the entire lower half of the Western Conference bracket were teams from the Southwest Division, we get some sort of division rivalry here. Gasol vs. superstar C Dwight Howard is sure to be a thrilling matchup down low, as is whoever the Rockets throw out at power forward, likely Josh Smith, vs. Randolph. Rockets PG Patrick Beverley should be able to hold his own guarding against Conley, SF Trevor Ariza can guard pretty much anybody and stretch the floor, and this all leaves the door open for my MVP vote superstar SG James Harden to take over this series. If the defensive stalwarts surrounding him -- Beverley, Ariza, Smith, Howard and other off the bench in a fantastic second-unit-- can contain the Grizzlies offense, then this is just Harden’s series. SG Tony Allen should be able to do a lot to contain him for Memphis, but there’s just no stopping Harden, who is the league’s leading scorer this season. If the Grizzlies can’t get things going on offense and can’t contain Harden, since they’re second-unit is at most equal, they’re going to have a tough time winning this series despite their “Grit ‘n Grind” style of excellent defense and rebounding.
Series Prediction: Houston wins 4-3
One Trade That Every Team Should Do
Memphis gets: SF Solomon Hill
Indiana gets: SG Jordan Adams, 2017 second-rounder (less favorable of Celtics or Raptors)
Finances: Both Adams and Hill are still on their rookie deals, so there’s not a lot to see here. They’re both due for $1.3 million next year and $1.4 million the year after that, as they were actually taken with back-to back picks in the 2013 draft. Adams went 22nd and Hill 23rd, but Hill has certainly outperformed Adams, which is why you see the second-rounder thrown in there.
The Fit: For Memphis, this is all about adding more wing depth and acquiring another shooter. Trading for SF/PF Jeff Green with Boston certainly helped, though more must be done about the lack of depth behind him and how devoid this team is of shooters. Hill can help solve this problem, as he is knocking down a three per game to go with 10 points and 4 rebounds, and could be had for cheap. Adams has never really made an impact anyways, and the second-rounder is of little use to a playoff team like Memphis. Hill is certainly a luxury for the Grizzlies, but it’s one that they can afford.
Why the other team does it: This is a very small trade for Indiana, as Hill never really had a major role in the long-term mold of the franchise. Adams has about as much upside as him anyways, so it’s pretty much as if the Pacers are getting a free second-rounder in this trade. The real test for Indiana will begin when superstar SF/SG Paul George returns from his injury, where they will resume their quest for the championship after a one year layoff.
State of the Franchise
Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $41.8 million
Background: In 2001, the Grizzlies drafted PF Pau Gasol with the third overall pick. He went on to win Rookie of the Year, setting as many as 12 franchise records on the way. Then, in 2007, they drafted PG Mike Conley with the fourth overall pick and traded Pau to the Lakers for a package including the draft rights to Pau's younger brother, C Marc Gasol, among others. In 2009, they traded F Quentin Richardson for PF Zach Randolph. Marc Gasol went on to the win Defensive Player of the Year in 2013, en route to a 56-26 record, the best mark in franchise history. The Grizzlies have made the playoffs for the past four years, including a Western Conference Finals appearance in that epic 2013 season, where they were swept by the San Antonio Spurs. Now they are one of the top teams in the West, thanks to All-Star play from Marc Gasol, and amazing play from Randolph and Conley as well. They recently traded role players and draft picks to acquire SF Jeff Green from the Boston Celtics to fill their gap at SF. With a veteran team, Memphis is looking like true contenders led by a starting five full of defensive studs, comprised of Conley, SG Tony Allen, Green, Randolph, and Gasol.
Current Financial State: The Grizzlies currently have $75 million in contracts right now but are projected to have only $35 million on the books for next year. This is mainly because both Gasol and Randolph's $16 million contracts are expiring and Jeff Green has a $9 million player option, which he is likely to accept. Conley’s $9 million contract is an absolute steal as well. With Gasol and Randolph being their only major free agents, the Grizzlies will likely be looking to keep them in free agency this year.
Targets: With the team performing at such a high level, their only major targets this offseason will likely be to keep their core free agents, Randolph and Gasol. Both, however, are likely to receive offers from many other teams, although Gasol has drawn more interest. Some likely suitors for Gasol include the New York Knicks and Los Angeles Lakers. Both teams are looking to add some star power and both will also have a lot of money to spend this offseason. Because of all the reported interest, Gasol will likely be the top priority for the Grizzlies. They will likely try to re-sign him for something around 4 years/$80+ million. Hopefully they won't be forced to pay even more to keep him away from the big market teams looking to get him. Randolph is due for a 2 year/$24 million deal, which he will probably get from Memphis. With the money they have available, the Grizzlies will look to keep their star big men around.
The Fit: Gasol and Randolph's fit with the Grizzlies is very well explained by their current play on the court, as well as the Grizzlies’ current record. Clearly, they complement each other really well, with Randolph taking a major scoring load and doing a lot of the rebounding, while Gasol just seems to do it all. Even though they are getting older, their level of play has certainly not declined and they are still performing at an All-Star level. The Grizzlies would absolutely love to keep both of them, because they are the heart of this Memphis team. If they keep up their level of play for the rest of the season, they will be a greatly feared team come playoff time.
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