Season Predictions 2016
Current seeding: 4th
Projected seeding: 4th
As strange as this is to say -- considering that superstar PF Blake Griffin is still injured and well, they’re the Clippers -- but LA is in a pretty comfortable spot right now. Catching OKC for the 3-spot is impossible, but as is sliding back to the fifth seed, as Memphis been decimated by injuries and trades. Thus the Clippers can actually coast to the end of the regular season, gradually work Blake back, and prepare for hopefully a deep playoff run. Superstar PG Chris Paul has stepped up into an even bigger role than usual with Griffin out, C DeAndre Jordan -- while still not hitting free throws -- is pulling his weight, and guys like SG J.J Reddick (16.8 points per game), SG Jamal Crawford (13.6 ppg), and new acquisition Jeff Green (11.8) have all been providing capable wing scoring and outside shooting. Thus the team has kept their head above water with Blake out, but considering their already razor-thin frontcourt rotation, they’ll need him back if they want to finally make a run this season.
First round: Memphis Grizzlies (5)
Lucky for them, the Clippers get a pretty easy matchup in the first round -- one they can win with or without Blake Griffin, even. As mentioned above, Memphis has basically had their entire starting five picked apart: PG Mike Conley and PF Zach Randolph are missing time due to injuries as we speak, C Marc Gasol is already out for the season, and SG Courtney Lee as well as (obviously) SF/PF Jeff Green have been traded away for future assets. Chris Paul’s point guard matchup will literally be against Briante Weber. Enough said.
Prediction: Los Angeles wins, 4-0
Second round: Golden State Warriors (1)
Talk about “zero to 100, real quick.” After a cupcake-matchup against the beyond depleted Grizzlies -- perhaps the very worst playoff team due to all of their injuries -- the Clippers will now have to take on the rival Warriors -- probably the very best playoff team. Any conversation about taking on Golden State will always start with the same question: “What can your team possibly do to stop PG Stephen Curry and SG Klay Thompson?” LA has a better answer to that than most. While nobody can actually slow down the unstoppable Steph Curry, CP3 may just be the most qualified point guard in the league for the job, as he can hang with Curry on both ends of the court. Containing Klay is a less impossible -- but still very difficult -- task, and the Clippers can run out of capable wing defenders very quickly. Even though they have DeAndre Jordan to hold down the paint and limit some of the guards’ drives, you can expect Curry and Thompson to have a combined average of about 50 points per game in this series.
Thus getting something going on offense will be paramount for LA, and they should have Blake Griffin back by this point. He’ll have to be guarded by PF/SF Draymond Green, however, who could very well be the best defender in basketball. The LA offense starts and ends with Chris Paul, relying on him not just for his 20 points per game, but for his 10 assists per game: setting up the offense as a whole. Wingmen like Redick, Crawford, and Green will have to provide a key scoring punch, as will the Clipper bench if it hopes to hang in with Golden State’s elite second-unit.
In all, this should be a very fun, exciting, and high-scoring series between Pacific Division rivals. One of the main factors that I think the matchup will really come down to is rebounds -- simply who will have more possessions in this game, who will get more shots up. Golden State ranks 9th in rebound rate. The Clippers? Second to last.
Prediction: Golden State wins, 4-3
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Memphis Grizzlies Trade Grades
Clippers get: SF Jeff Green
Grizzlies get: SG Lance Stephenson, 2019 first-rounder
With Stephenson struggling mightily and the Wesley Johnson-Paul Pierce duo at small forward being largely unimpressive, it was obvious that change was needed on the wing. Stephenson was putting up a mere 4.7 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 1.4 assists per game; this being just a few years removed from leading the league in triple-doubles. Enter Jeff Green. The small forward is averaging a solid 12.2 points and 4.5 rebounds per game this season, and provides a legitimate scoring option on the wing, a role made all the more necessary for LAC by PF Blake Griffin's injury. As the team addressed perhaps their greatest hole (other than some freaking frontcourt depth!!!!!), giving away a future protected pick is well worth the cost of becoming title contenders right now.
Grade: A
Power Rankings
Overall Ranking: 6th
Tier: Title Contenders
Projected Seeding: 5th in West
The Clippers were great last year, and have an even better roster after this summer. Superstars PG Chris Paul and PF Blake Griffin are still the cornerstones of the franchise, and star C DeAndre Jordan remains an optimal fit as a rebounding and shot-blocking machine after being re-signed this summer in crazy fashion. Sharpshooter SG J.J Reddick and veteran SF Paul Pierce figure to be plugged into the starting lineup on the perimeter, and the bench is arguably the best in basketball. PG Austin Rivers, the coach's son, joins SG/PG Jamal Crawford, SF/SG Wesley Johnson, and SG Lance Stephenson as the primary backups in the backcourt,. The frontcourt depth, the roster's biggest weakness for the past couple of years, finally looks serviceable: PF/SF Josh Smith, C/PF Cole Aldrich, and C/PF Glen Davis round out a decent rotation behind Griffin and Jordan up front. Top to bottom, this is a very complete roster, with everything a team needs to win a championship: superstars, playmakers, three-point shooters, low-post scorers, perimeter and interior defense, rebounding, and veteran leaders, not to mention Head Coach Doc Rivers, a former champion. Still, the road to the franchise's first ever title will be far from easy, as Los Angeles (the Clippers, that is) have never even made it past the second round of the playoffs in recent memory. However, as the top six teams in basketball are pretty much 1a, 1b, 1c, 1d, 1e, and 1f (rather than 1-6), a case could be made that the Clippers have as good of a shot as anyone to win it all, with a deep playoff run at the very least.
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Charlotte Hornets' Trade Grade
Hornets get: C Spencer Hawes, SF Matt Barnes
Clippers get: SG Lance Stephenson
Bolded stuff = most important points/summary/highlights
I love the move for L.A. With their current roster proving that they are incapable of advancing past the second round of the playoffs for two years in a row, it was clear that adding another piece was necessary if the Clippers hoped to become true title contenders. And now they have, assuming that they are able to re-sign star C DeAndre Jordan.
Although coming off a disappointing season where he averaged just 8 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 4 assists per game on an abysmal 37.5% shooting from the field, Stephenson oozes potential. His antics and lack of maturity are a major turn-off for most teams, but in the right role Lance can be an All-Star. Prior to this season with the Hornets, he averaged 14 points, 7 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and a steal on an efficient 49% shooting with the Indiana Pacers en route to an All-Star snub. He is still a defensive force with incredible length (6’11” wingspan) that boasts a very well-rounded overall game: a fair comparison could be SF/SG Nicolas Batum (POR). Still just 24, Stephenson’s offensive game is still capable of further development, which would make him a true star in this league. His contract is reasonable as well, as he’s owed just $9 million this year before a $9.4 million team option for next season.
For all this, what did L.A have to give up? Next to nothing: Barnes is on an expiring $3.5 million contract, and he’s no more than a role player. He averaged 10 points and 4 rebounds per game this season, which is actually one of the better ones of his career. Barnes’ main attributes are his toughness, solid ability to stretch the floor as a shooter, and his defensive tenacity. According to reports, he’s expected to be waived by Charlotte.
Hawes, on the other hand, is an interesting case. He was very impressive last year on a depleted Philadelphia squad: 13 points, 8.5 rebounds, a combined 2 steals and blocks per game, all while knocking down 1.5 threes on a ridiculous 40% from beyond the arc. This year, however, his minutes have been cut from 31.5 to 17.5 per game with the Clippers, and he’s only put up 6 points, 3.5 rebounds, a combined 1 steal and block per game, and only made 1 three on 31.5% shooting from downtown. Could he be just as effective as he was in Philadelphia with an uptick in minutes? Perhaps, but his overall numbers fell off more than proportionally with the decrease in minutes. He’s a good shooter, especially for his height, and a serviceable defender as well, but his inability to utilize his size in terms of scoring inside and grabbing more rebounds is alarming. He’s owed $5.7 milion a year through 2018, although that’s reasonable, the length of the deal is almost reliant on the fact that he will be able to develop into more than just a shooter.
All in all, the Clippers gave up a couple of role players, the latter on a rather undesirable contract, for a potential star. Adding depth up front and maybe another small forward to fill the holes left by Barnes and Hawes respectively will be necessary for them to legitimately stake their claim as title favorites, but this trade at the very least gives L.A that opportunity (to be title contenders) while giving up next to nothing in exchange.
Grade: A
Best/Worst Draft Scenarios
The Los Angeles Clippers do not have a first-round pick in this year's draft.
Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams
For the Clippers to make any sort of run, superstars PG Chris Paul and PF/C Blake Griffin MUST be at the top of their games. That is just a given. What else needs to happen? For starters, star C DeAndre Jordan needs to continue to alleviate Griffin’s pressure on defense by locking down the rim at the less-glamorous end of the court. In addition, their role players must step up in a big way and carry the second-unit, which is by no means an easy task. However, if this can be done and Coach Doc Rivers works the offense cohesively (pretty much a given), don’t be surprised if this team wins the title.
Draft Targets
The Clippers do not have a pick in the draft, so they have no targets.
Season Predictions
Regular Season: My projection is probably under-estimating this Clippers team, as they are likely to win a game or two more. It wouldn’t really affect their seeding, however, as even if they got a better record than the fourth-seeded Trail Blazers, they would still be fifth as the division winners are guaranteed a top-4 spot, something the Blazers are and the Clippers are not. Anyways, Los Angeles has been dealing with superstar PF/C Blake Griffin’s latest injury, though he should return soon and round back into form in time for the playoffs. Superstar PG Chris Paul has really stepped up in his absence, and C Deandre Jordan is making his case for Defensive Player of the Year. Doc Rivers’ squad also has many shooters on the perimeter and depth everywhere, except perhaps up front. The CLippers look to poise themselves for another playoff run in the brutal West.
Projected Record: 53-29
Playoffs Round One
Portland Trail Blazers (#4) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (#5)
Speaking of the Trail Blazers. This is one heck of a team, led by superstars PG Damian Lillard and PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge, who should each form an exciting matchup with the Clippers’ superstars at their positions. In addition, the Blazers also feature a variety of shooters on the wing, boasting a Sixth Man of the Year candidate at the two, and a relative lack of depth up front all just like Los Angeles, though these teams are different in many ways. Lillard is a score-first guard, while Paul is pass-first. Aldridge likes to do his damage from mid-range, while Griffin down on the low block. SG/SF Arron Afflalo for Portland makes for an interesting second-unit matchup with SG Jamal Crawford of Los Angeles, with Afflalo liking to light it up from deep and Crawford preferring to cross-up and then drive on his defender. C Deandre Jordan is just an upgraded version of Blazers C Robin Lopez, but Portland’s superior wing is what can win them this series. As mentioned, Afflalo and Crawford pretty much cancel out, as does the rest of each teams’ second units, as they are practically even everywhere after Portland has done a lot of work in the past couple of years to revamp its bench, though the Clippers may still maintain a small edge. SG/SF Wesley Matthews is an even better sniper from long range than Clippers SG J.J Reddick, and can also do a few other things as well. SF/SG Nicolas Batum, though struggling, can still do just about everything on the court as well as shut down almost anyone, and SF Alonzo Gee is another valuable asset off the bench. This series will likely ultimately come down to the superstars, however, and my gut is that Lillard and Aldridge will out-shine Paul and Griffin and take down “Lob City”, as the Trail Blazers, and particularly Lillard, can really deliver in the clutch where it counts (just ask the Rockets last year).
Series Prediction: Portland wins 4-3
One Trade That Every Team Should Do
Los Angeles Clippers get: SG/SF Arron Afflalo, SG Randy Foye
Denver gets: SF Otto Porter, C Kevin Seraphin, SG C.J Wilcox, Washington’s 2015 second-rounder
Washington gets: SG/PG Jamal Crawford, SF Matt Barnes
Finances: This one gets a little crazy, as Seraphin is the only obvious cap filler, with a $3.9 million expiring contract. Afflalo is due for $15.3 million in each of the next two seasons, while Foye is due for $6.1 million in that span. Porter and Wilcox are on their respective rookie deals, though Porter is due for $4.5 million while there’s just $1.1 million for Wilcox. Crawford and Barnes have two year deals, each with team options on the second year, worth a total of $11.1 and $7 million, respectively. All contracts in this trade are particularly good ones, and this deal is more about addressing needs for the teams rather than the finances.
The Fit: A star small forward has been on the Clippers’ wish list for awhile now, and though they have to part with former Sixth Man of the Year Jamal Crawford, this trade is well worth it. Crawford is one of the Clippers’ few shot-creators, as he’s averaging 16 points and 2 threes per game, but Foye can replace him as the sixth man should a deal like this go through. The C.J Wilcox pick, with such a glaring need for depth up front and a surplus of it in the backcourt, made little sense from the start, and he hasn’t been utilized much in his rookie season. Barnes is more of just an energy guy than anything else, though he does provide some key floor spacing. This can be easily replaced by Foye, who’s averaging a three a game himself. Landing Afflalo is the main prize of this deal, and he should be with averages of 14.5 points and 1.5 threes a game. Throwing away someone like Wilcox, who has little value to the Clippers anyways, in order to upgrade from the aging Crawford to Afflalo and from Barnes to Foye, all while improving their small forward position, makes plenty of sense for the Clippers.
Why the other teams do it: As a young team looking to get future assets for its veterans, this deal makes plenty of sense for Denver. Though both Wilcox and Porter have been disappointing as they transition to the pros, both have potential and could probably benefit from a change of scenery. Seraphin will likely not stay longer than one year, as he’s just in the deal to make the finances work, and the second-rounder will just be thrown on top of the pile of draft picks that the Nuggets are looking to add to. For the Wizards, they get key backcourt depth in this trade, while giving up rather meaningless assets. Porter has just been a failed experiment from the start, and Seraphin is just a role player that can be easily replaced up front. The second-rounder also means next-to-nothing for a team looking to make a playoff run, so this has to be a steal for the Wizards when you consider what their getting in this trade. Barnes is a physical, high-energy guy who can also space the floor, as he’s knocking down 1.6 threes this year, as part of his 10 points per game. Crawford can do a lot to help shore up Washington’s backcourt depth, which was already hurting before star SG Bradley Beal’s latest injury added fuel to the fire. He can play both guard spots, behind Beal as well as superstar PG John Wall, and can step up as a starter while Beal is injured. Averaging 16 points and 2 threes a game, Crawford can compete for his third Sixth Man of the Year award once Beal returns.
State of the Franchise
Project Cap Space (before luxury tax): $20.6 million
Background: When the Clippers won the draft lottery back in 2009, they picked wisely, taking superstar PF Blake Griffin with the first overall pick. Although he sat out his entire rookie year with an injury, he has made an impact since his start. Then, in 2011, Los Angeles traded with New Orleans for one of the NBA's best PG’s, superstar Chris Paul. Recently, in 2013, they tried to make a trade with the Boston Celtics for veterans and future Hall of Famers SF Paul Pierce and PF Kevin Garnett, but were denied by the league when they wanted to acquire coach Doc Rivers as well. Doc Rivers still made his way to LA, but that was all. After a massive controversy surrounding former owner Donald Sterling’s racial remarks, Sterling was fired and the Clippers were bought by Microsoft CEO Steve Balmer for $2 billion. Now the Clippers are championship contenders with a core of Paul, Griffin, and breakout C DeAndre Jordan. "Lob City" is one of the best, most exciting young teams in the NBA.
Current Financial State: The Clippers only have $56 million committed to their players next year, about $22 million for Paul and $18 million for Griffin. Jordan has been a huge part of their championship run and they would really like to keep him. He would cost them roughly $12-13 million on something close to a 4 year/$50 million deal. This would give them $8 million left to spend until the $76.8 million luxury tax line. If they're looking to win the championship, they should address their glaring hole at SF. With not many quality SFs on the block right now and not many trading assets, the Clippers will likely look to free agency to try and fill their hole at that position.
Targets: As mentioned, the Clippers will be looking for a SF in free agency this year. One interesting target is SF Gerald Green, currently on the Phoenix Suns. This offseason, he will be an unrestricted free agent and the Clippers will likely go after him. However, they will not be the only ones interested in Green's services, as he is expected to be a highly coveted free agent this year. The Clippers will probably try to get him for something around a 3 year/$18 million deal. Green is a nice, affordable player, and that would still leave them with $2 million to spend until the luxury tax line.
The Fit: Green is quite an ideal fit for the Clippers. He is a high energy player and the Clippers could really use his ability to score in bunches. He could provide instant scoring from either the starting lineup or as a spark scorer off the bench. Although his scoring ability is really helpful, his main fit comes from his athleticism. His vertical abilities and highlight-reel dunks fit perfectly in "Lob City." Along with Griffin and Jordan, he will be receiving tons of alley-oop passes from superstar Chris Paul. His athleticism and scoring abilities could really prove to be useful for the Clippers down the stretch and in the playoffs. Green could potentially be the piece Los Angeles needs to take home their first championship in franchise history.
Current seeding: 4th
Projected seeding: 4th
As strange as this is to say -- considering that superstar PF Blake Griffin is still injured and well, they’re the Clippers -- but LA is in a pretty comfortable spot right now. Catching OKC for the 3-spot is impossible, but as is sliding back to the fifth seed, as Memphis been decimated by injuries and trades. Thus the Clippers can actually coast to the end of the regular season, gradually work Blake back, and prepare for hopefully a deep playoff run. Superstar PG Chris Paul has stepped up into an even bigger role than usual with Griffin out, C DeAndre Jordan -- while still not hitting free throws -- is pulling his weight, and guys like SG J.J Reddick (16.8 points per game), SG Jamal Crawford (13.6 ppg), and new acquisition Jeff Green (11.8) have all been providing capable wing scoring and outside shooting. Thus the team has kept their head above water with Blake out, but considering their already razor-thin frontcourt rotation, they’ll need him back if they want to finally make a run this season.
First round: Memphis Grizzlies (5)
Lucky for them, the Clippers get a pretty easy matchup in the first round -- one they can win with or without Blake Griffin, even. As mentioned above, Memphis has basically had their entire starting five picked apart: PG Mike Conley and PF Zach Randolph are missing time due to injuries as we speak, C Marc Gasol is already out for the season, and SG Courtney Lee as well as (obviously) SF/PF Jeff Green have been traded away for future assets. Chris Paul’s point guard matchup will literally be against Briante Weber. Enough said.
Prediction: Los Angeles wins, 4-0
Second round: Golden State Warriors (1)
Talk about “zero to 100, real quick.” After a cupcake-matchup against the beyond depleted Grizzlies -- perhaps the very worst playoff team due to all of their injuries -- the Clippers will now have to take on the rival Warriors -- probably the very best playoff team. Any conversation about taking on Golden State will always start with the same question: “What can your team possibly do to stop PG Stephen Curry and SG Klay Thompson?” LA has a better answer to that than most. While nobody can actually slow down the unstoppable Steph Curry, CP3 may just be the most qualified point guard in the league for the job, as he can hang with Curry on both ends of the court. Containing Klay is a less impossible -- but still very difficult -- task, and the Clippers can run out of capable wing defenders very quickly. Even though they have DeAndre Jordan to hold down the paint and limit some of the guards’ drives, you can expect Curry and Thompson to have a combined average of about 50 points per game in this series.
Thus getting something going on offense will be paramount for LA, and they should have Blake Griffin back by this point. He’ll have to be guarded by PF/SF Draymond Green, however, who could very well be the best defender in basketball. The LA offense starts and ends with Chris Paul, relying on him not just for his 20 points per game, but for his 10 assists per game: setting up the offense as a whole. Wingmen like Redick, Crawford, and Green will have to provide a key scoring punch, as will the Clipper bench if it hopes to hang in with Golden State’s elite second-unit.
In all, this should be a very fun, exciting, and high-scoring series between Pacific Division rivals. One of the main factors that I think the matchup will really come down to is rebounds -- simply who will have more possessions in this game, who will get more shots up. Golden State ranks 9th in rebound rate. The Clippers? Second to last.
Prediction: Golden State wins, 4-3
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Memphis Grizzlies Trade Grades
Clippers get: SF Jeff Green
Grizzlies get: SG Lance Stephenson, 2019 first-rounder
With Stephenson struggling mightily and the Wesley Johnson-Paul Pierce duo at small forward being largely unimpressive, it was obvious that change was needed on the wing. Stephenson was putting up a mere 4.7 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 1.4 assists per game; this being just a few years removed from leading the league in triple-doubles. Enter Jeff Green. The small forward is averaging a solid 12.2 points and 4.5 rebounds per game this season, and provides a legitimate scoring option on the wing, a role made all the more necessary for LAC by PF Blake Griffin's injury. As the team addressed perhaps their greatest hole (other than some freaking frontcourt depth!!!!!), giving away a future protected pick is well worth the cost of becoming title contenders right now.
Grade: A
Power Rankings
Overall Ranking: 6th
Tier: Title Contenders
Projected Seeding: 5th in West
The Clippers were great last year, and have an even better roster after this summer. Superstars PG Chris Paul and PF Blake Griffin are still the cornerstones of the franchise, and star C DeAndre Jordan remains an optimal fit as a rebounding and shot-blocking machine after being re-signed this summer in crazy fashion. Sharpshooter SG J.J Reddick and veteran SF Paul Pierce figure to be plugged into the starting lineup on the perimeter, and the bench is arguably the best in basketball. PG Austin Rivers, the coach's son, joins SG/PG Jamal Crawford, SF/SG Wesley Johnson, and SG Lance Stephenson as the primary backups in the backcourt,. The frontcourt depth, the roster's biggest weakness for the past couple of years, finally looks serviceable: PF/SF Josh Smith, C/PF Cole Aldrich, and C/PF Glen Davis round out a decent rotation behind Griffin and Jordan up front. Top to bottom, this is a very complete roster, with everything a team needs to win a championship: superstars, playmakers, three-point shooters, low-post scorers, perimeter and interior defense, rebounding, and veteran leaders, not to mention Head Coach Doc Rivers, a former champion. Still, the road to the franchise's first ever title will be far from easy, as Los Angeles (the Clippers, that is) have never even made it past the second round of the playoffs in recent memory. However, as the top six teams in basketball are pretty much 1a, 1b, 1c, 1d, 1e, and 1f (rather than 1-6), a case could be made that the Clippers have as good of a shot as anyone to win it all, with a deep playoff run at the very least.
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Charlotte Hornets' Trade Grade
Hornets get: C Spencer Hawes, SF Matt Barnes
Clippers get: SG Lance Stephenson
Bolded stuff = most important points/summary/highlights
I love the move for L.A. With their current roster proving that they are incapable of advancing past the second round of the playoffs for two years in a row, it was clear that adding another piece was necessary if the Clippers hoped to become true title contenders. And now they have, assuming that they are able to re-sign star C DeAndre Jordan.
Although coming off a disappointing season where he averaged just 8 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 4 assists per game on an abysmal 37.5% shooting from the field, Stephenson oozes potential. His antics and lack of maturity are a major turn-off for most teams, but in the right role Lance can be an All-Star. Prior to this season with the Hornets, he averaged 14 points, 7 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and a steal on an efficient 49% shooting with the Indiana Pacers en route to an All-Star snub. He is still a defensive force with incredible length (6’11” wingspan) that boasts a very well-rounded overall game: a fair comparison could be SF/SG Nicolas Batum (POR). Still just 24, Stephenson’s offensive game is still capable of further development, which would make him a true star in this league. His contract is reasonable as well, as he’s owed just $9 million this year before a $9.4 million team option for next season.
For all this, what did L.A have to give up? Next to nothing: Barnes is on an expiring $3.5 million contract, and he’s no more than a role player. He averaged 10 points and 4 rebounds per game this season, which is actually one of the better ones of his career. Barnes’ main attributes are his toughness, solid ability to stretch the floor as a shooter, and his defensive tenacity. According to reports, he’s expected to be waived by Charlotte.
Hawes, on the other hand, is an interesting case. He was very impressive last year on a depleted Philadelphia squad: 13 points, 8.5 rebounds, a combined 2 steals and blocks per game, all while knocking down 1.5 threes on a ridiculous 40% from beyond the arc. This year, however, his minutes have been cut from 31.5 to 17.5 per game with the Clippers, and he’s only put up 6 points, 3.5 rebounds, a combined 1 steal and block per game, and only made 1 three on 31.5% shooting from downtown. Could he be just as effective as he was in Philadelphia with an uptick in minutes? Perhaps, but his overall numbers fell off more than proportionally with the decrease in minutes. He’s a good shooter, especially for his height, and a serviceable defender as well, but his inability to utilize his size in terms of scoring inside and grabbing more rebounds is alarming. He’s owed $5.7 milion a year through 2018, although that’s reasonable, the length of the deal is almost reliant on the fact that he will be able to develop into more than just a shooter.
All in all, the Clippers gave up a couple of role players, the latter on a rather undesirable contract, for a potential star. Adding depth up front and maybe another small forward to fill the holes left by Barnes and Hawes respectively will be necessary for them to legitimately stake their claim as title favorites, but this trade at the very least gives L.A that opportunity (to be title contenders) while giving up next to nothing in exchange.
Grade: A
Best/Worst Draft Scenarios
The Los Angeles Clippers do not have a first-round pick in this year's draft.
Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams
For the Clippers to make any sort of run, superstars PG Chris Paul and PF/C Blake Griffin MUST be at the top of their games. That is just a given. What else needs to happen? For starters, star C DeAndre Jordan needs to continue to alleviate Griffin’s pressure on defense by locking down the rim at the less-glamorous end of the court. In addition, their role players must step up in a big way and carry the second-unit, which is by no means an easy task. However, if this can be done and Coach Doc Rivers works the offense cohesively (pretty much a given), don’t be surprised if this team wins the title.
Draft Targets
The Clippers do not have a pick in the draft, so they have no targets.
Season Predictions
Regular Season: My projection is probably under-estimating this Clippers team, as they are likely to win a game or two more. It wouldn’t really affect their seeding, however, as even if they got a better record than the fourth-seeded Trail Blazers, they would still be fifth as the division winners are guaranteed a top-4 spot, something the Blazers are and the Clippers are not. Anyways, Los Angeles has been dealing with superstar PF/C Blake Griffin’s latest injury, though he should return soon and round back into form in time for the playoffs. Superstar PG Chris Paul has really stepped up in his absence, and C Deandre Jordan is making his case for Defensive Player of the Year. Doc Rivers’ squad also has many shooters on the perimeter and depth everywhere, except perhaps up front. The CLippers look to poise themselves for another playoff run in the brutal West.
Projected Record: 53-29
Playoffs Round One
Portland Trail Blazers (#4) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (#5)
Speaking of the Trail Blazers. This is one heck of a team, led by superstars PG Damian Lillard and PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge, who should each form an exciting matchup with the Clippers’ superstars at their positions. In addition, the Blazers also feature a variety of shooters on the wing, boasting a Sixth Man of the Year candidate at the two, and a relative lack of depth up front all just like Los Angeles, though these teams are different in many ways. Lillard is a score-first guard, while Paul is pass-first. Aldridge likes to do his damage from mid-range, while Griffin down on the low block. SG/SF Arron Afflalo for Portland makes for an interesting second-unit matchup with SG Jamal Crawford of Los Angeles, with Afflalo liking to light it up from deep and Crawford preferring to cross-up and then drive on his defender. C Deandre Jordan is just an upgraded version of Blazers C Robin Lopez, but Portland’s superior wing is what can win them this series. As mentioned, Afflalo and Crawford pretty much cancel out, as does the rest of each teams’ second units, as they are practically even everywhere after Portland has done a lot of work in the past couple of years to revamp its bench, though the Clippers may still maintain a small edge. SG/SF Wesley Matthews is an even better sniper from long range than Clippers SG J.J Reddick, and can also do a few other things as well. SF/SG Nicolas Batum, though struggling, can still do just about everything on the court as well as shut down almost anyone, and SF Alonzo Gee is another valuable asset off the bench. This series will likely ultimately come down to the superstars, however, and my gut is that Lillard and Aldridge will out-shine Paul and Griffin and take down “Lob City”, as the Trail Blazers, and particularly Lillard, can really deliver in the clutch where it counts (just ask the Rockets last year).
Series Prediction: Portland wins 4-3
One Trade That Every Team Should Do
Los Angeles Clippers get: SG/SF Arron Afflalo, SG Randy Foye
Denver gets: SF Otto Porter, C Kevin Seraphin, SG C.J Wilcox, Washington’s 2015 second-rounder
Washington gets: SG/PG Jamal Crawford, SF Matt Barnes
Finances: This one gets a little crazy, as Seraphin is the only obvious cap filler, with a $3.9 million expiring contract. Afflalo is due for $15.3 million in each of the next two seasons, while Foye is due for $6.1 million in that span. Porter and Wilcox are on their respective rookie deals, though Porter is due for $4.5 million while there’s just $1.1 million for Wilcox. Crawford and Barnes have two year deals, each with team options on the second year, worth a total of $11.1 and $7 million, respectively. All contracts in this trade are particularly good ones, and this deal is more about addressing needs for the teams rather than the finances.
The Fit: A star small forward has been on the Clippers’ wish list for awhile now, and though they have to part with former Sixth Man of the Year Jamal Crawford, this trade is well worth it. Crawford is one of the Clippers’ few shot-creators, as he’s averaging 16 points and 2 threes per game, but Foye can replace him as the sixth man should a deal like this go through. The C.J Wilcox pick, with such a glaring need for depth up front and a surplus of it in the backcourt, made little sense from the start, and he hasn’t been utilized much in his rookie season. Barnes is more of just an energy guy than anything else, though he does provide some key floor spacing. This can be easily replaced by Foye, who’s averaging a three a game himself. Landing Afflalo is the main prize of this deal, and he should be with averages of 14.5 points and 1.5 threes a game. Throwing away someone like Wilcox, who has little value to the Clippers anyways, in order to upgrade from the aging Crawford to Afflalo and from Barnes to Foye, all while improving their small forward position, makes plenty of sense for the Clippers.
Why the other teams do it: As a young team looking to get future assets for its veterans, this deal makes plenty of sense for Denver. Though both Wilcox and Porter have been disappointing as they transition to the pros, both have potential and could probably benefit from a change of scenery. Seraphin will likely not stay longer than one year, as he’s just in the deal to make the finances work, and the second-rounder will just be thrown on top of the pile of draft picks that the Nuggets are looking to add to. For the Wizards, they get key backcourt depth in this trade, while giving up rather meaningless assets. Porter has just been a failed experiment from the start, and Seraphin is just a role player that can be easily replaced up front. The second-rounder also means next-to-nothing for a team looking to make a playoff run, so this has to be a steal for the Wizards when you consider what their getting in this trade. Barnes is a physical, high-energy guy who can also space the floor, as he’s knocking down 1.6 threes this year, as part of his 10 points per game. Crawford can do a lot to help shore up Washington’s backcourt depth, which was already hurting before star SG Bradley Beal’s latest injury added fuel to the fire. He can play both guard spots, behind Beal as well as superstar PG John Wall, and can step up as a starter while Beal is injured. Averaging 16 points and 2 threes a game, Crawford can compete for his third Sixth Man of the Year award once Beal returns.
State of the Franchise
Project Cap Space (before luxury tax): $20.6 million
Background: When the Clippers won the draft lottery back in 2009, they picked wisely, taking superstar PF Blake Griffin with the first overall pick. Although he sat out his entire rookie year with an injury, he has made an impact since his start. Then, in 2011, Los Angeles traded with New Orleans for one of the NBA's best PG’s, superstar Chris Paul. Recently, in 2013, they tried to make a trade with the Boston Celtics for veterans and future Hall of Famers SF Paul Pierce and PF Kevin Garnett, but were denied by the league when they wanted to acquire coach Doc Rivers as well. Doc Rivers still made his way to LA, but that was all. After a massive controversy surrounding former owner Donald Sterling’s racial remarks, Sterling was fired and the Clippers were bought by Microsoft CEO Steve Balmer for $2 billion. Now the Clippers are championship contenders with a core of Paul, Griffin, and breakout C DeAndre Jordan. "Lob City" is one of the best, most exciting young teams in the NBA.
Current Financial State: The Clippers only have $56 million committed to their players next year, about $22 million for Paul and $18 million for Griffin. Jordan has been a huge part of their championship run and they would really like to keep him. He would cost them roughly $12-13 million on something close to a 4 year/$50 million deal. This would give them $8 million left to spend until the $76.8 million luxury tax line. If they're looking to win the championship, they should address their glaring hole at SF. With not many quality SFs on the block right now and not many trading assets, the Clippers will likely look to free agency to try and fill their hole at that position.
Targets: As mentioned, the Clippers will be looking for a SF in free agency this year. One interesting target is SF Gerald Green, currently on the Phoenix Suns. This offseason, he will be an unrestricted free agent and the Clippers will likely go after him. However, they will not be the only ones interested in Green's services, as he is expected to be a highly coveted free agent this year. The Clippers will probably try to get him for something around a 3 year/$18 million deal. Green is a nice, affordable player, and that would still leave them with $2 million to spend until the luxury tax line.
The Fit: Green is quite an ideal fit for the Clippers. He is a high energy player and the Clippers could really use his ability to score in bunches. He could provide instant scoring from either the starting lineup or as a spark scorer off the bench. Although his scoring ability is really helpful, his main fit comes from his athleticism. His vertical abilities and highlight-reel dunks fit perfectly in "Lob City." Along with Griffin and Jordan, he will be receiving tons of alley-oop passes from superstar Chris Paul. His athleticism and scoring abilities could really prove to be useful for the Clippers down the stretch and in the playoffs. Green could potentially be the piece Los Angeles needs to take home their first championship in franchise history.
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