Season Predictions 2016
Current seeding: 8th
Projected seeding: 7th
Things weren’t looking so great for Detroit at this point last season: PF/C Greg Monroe was either going to be overpaid or lost in free agency, there were too many overpaid wing players, and just no other quality long-term pieces other than the offensively-challenged C Andre Drummond. But then president Stan Van Gundy acquired PG Reggie Jackson for spare parts at the trade deadline and extended him in the offseason. Next, he revamped the team’s depleted forwards by acquiring SF/PF Marcus Morris, drafting SF/PF Stanley Johnson, and recently using Brandon Jennings (PG, ORL) to upgrade from Ersan Ilyasova (PF/SF, ORL) to PF/SF Tobias Harris. Now, led by the star trio of the future in Jackson, Harris, and Drummond, as well as an abundance of complementar role players, the Pistons are bound to snap their playoff drought this season.
First round: Toronto Raptors (2)
When playing against the Raptors, the question on every team’s mind is always: “How can we possibly slow down PG Kyle Lowry and SG DeMar DeRozan?” For the Pistons, that strategy is going to have to rely a lot on Andre Drummond to protect the paint against the speedy duo, as he will have to meet them at the rim consistently on their drives. The problem here is that the Raptors have C Jonas Valanciunas and others who can finish around the rim if Drummond were to leave them unguarded, meaning that much of the burden will need to fall on Jackson, SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and other Detroit guards, who are not exactly touted for their perimeter defense. Offensively, the Pistons have many scoring threats, but Toronto’s defenders are simply too quick for isolation basketball to work. Thus passing and moving the ball will need to be a priority for Motor City, but the problem remains that the team ranks second-to-last in both assist rate and true shooting percentage.
With the dearth of talent that Detroit has, and the surface-view mediocre levels belonging to Toronto, I could see this being a trendy upset pick and frankly wouldn’t be too surprised if the Pistons pulled it off. Still, Detroit has very little quality bench depth, as compared with Toronto’s, who have among the best second-units in the league that could easily outscore their foes by the bunches during the 30% of the game that they are on the floor. This is just not a good matchup for the Pistons, but we’ll be sure to see them here next year.
Prediction: Toronto wins, 4-2
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Houston Rockets Trade Grades
Pistons get: PF Donatas Motiejunas, SG Marcus Thornton
Rockets get: C Joel Anthony, protected 2016 first-round pick (top 8 protected this year, top 10 the following two years)
Very risky move here. After the Harris trade, it was evident that Detroit was looking to end their six-year playoff drought. Anthony has been useless with the Pistons (0.7 points, 1.2 rebounds in 4 minutes per game) and was used as a cap-filler in this deal; and after trading away Jennings, acquiring a backcourt gunner like Thornton (10 points, 1.6 threes per game) makes sense. So far, so good, right?
But where it gets tricky is the part where, oh yeah, the Pistons just gave up a first-rounder! Now, obviously they netted the solid power forward Motiejunas in return, who put up 12 points and 5.9 rebounds per game on 50.4% shooting last season. But the youngster has been plagued by back injuries this year, with averages of just 5.6 points and 2.1 rebounds in 13.4 minutes per game in the mere 14 games he has played. It should also be noted that Motiejunas will be entering restricted free agency this offseason, forcing Detroit to cough up considerable cash to keep him around, unlike the cheap rookie deal that could've been spent on the use of that draft pick. In sum, while Motiejunas is talented, the presence of forwards Marcus Morris, Stanley Johnson, and now Tobias Harris make coughing up a first-rounder a highly questionable move. Is Detroit's present so great that they can afford to damage their future?
Grade: C
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Orlando Magic Trade Grades
Pistons get: PF/SF Tobias Harris
Magic get: PG Brandon Jennings, PF/SF Ersan Ilyasova
Perfect. With PG Reggie Jackson absolutely dominating at point guard, the struggling Jennings was a spare part, and was used absolutely brilliantly here by Stan Van Gundy to give a much-needed bolstering to the teams' forward rotation.
Jennings has been dismal since returning from an ACL injury, averaging 6.8 points and 3 assists on 37.3% shooting in 18 minutes per game. Finding a team willing to take a chance on him makes a lot of sense.
Ilysasova is having a solid year, with averages of 11.3 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 1.5 threes per game. Both the stretch-four and Jenning are on expiring deals worth $8 million, and it was unknown whether Detroit even wanted to keep them this offseason, nor if they wanted to stay at all.
Harris is the complement to stars Jackson and C Andre Drummond that the team has been looking for... ever since Josh Smith (just kidding, relax). This is a down year for the 23-year-old as well, with averages of 13.7 points and 7 rebounds per game, regressing from 17 ppg last season. When a young player regresses or plateaus, it generally sounds off alarms in the front office, as young players are supposed to be consistently climbing uphill. But Harris has not exactly been put in the proper offensive role, and is still shooting efficiently, meaning it is more of the Magic's fault than his for his lack of scoring. Thus Harris was the perfect buy-low target for a Detroit team that badly needed a quality forward. With Tobias' 4 year/$64 million contract being the sum of Jennings and Ilyasova's anyways (in terms of dollars per year), this was an excellent trade to complete the star trio (Harris, Jackson, Drummond) of the future.
Grade: A-
Power Rankings
Overall Rank: 19th
Tier: Playoff Hopefuls
Projected Seeding: 9th in East
Building around star C Andre Drummond, the Pistons have completely overhauled their roster over these past couple of years. Star PF/C Greg Monroe is gone, but that star power has been somewhat replaced by the point guard duo of Reggie Jackson and Brandon Jennings. There is also a plethora of shooters and other role players on the wing, including SF/SG Danny Granger, SG Jodie Meeks, PF/SF Ersan Ilyasova, and PF/SF Marcus Morris. Youngsters SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and SF/PF Stanley Johnson also figure to make an immediate impact, but there are a couple flaws with this team. While Drummond anchors a solid defense and the Pistons' shooters make up for the star center's lack of spacing, there is a glaring lack of scorers on the roster. The backcourt duo of Jackson and Jennings can absolutely put the ball in the basket, but finding other playmakers on Detroit is a futile task. Drummond will need to supply some points from the low block, but as he only put up 13.8 points per game last year, he’s not the most reliable offensive option. The Pistons will absolutely be in the playoff hunt for almost the entire year, but unless Drummond grows a tremendous amount this year, particularly on the offensive end, Detroit will have to wait another year to snap their six year playoff drought.
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Phoenix Suns Trade Grades
Pistons get: PF/SF Marcus Morris, SF/SG Danny Granger, SF/SG Reggie Bullock
Suns get: 2020 second round pick from Detroit
This trade was a no brainer: Detroit received one starting-caliber player, and two role players, all for just a relatively worthless 2020 second round draft pick. Danny Granger was a 20 point scorer during his stint with Indiana, but. he only put up 6.3 points per game last season, splitting time with Miami and Phoenix. Still, there is a lot of hope in that he could even somewhat return to his old form, and little risk attached to his expiring $2.1 million deal. Reggie Bullock, on a cheap rookie deal, shot 38.5% from three pointers, while he was on the Clippers last year. Both will be key floor-spacers for the Pistons. But the real prize of this deal is of course Marcus Morris. The forward averaged 10.4 points and 4.8 rebounds per game last season in Phoenix. Marcus is a good three-point shooter (36.3% for his career) and can space the floor out easier for the Pistons’ playmakers to operate. He, rookie SF/PF Stanley Johnson, and PF/SF Ersan Ilyasova will compete to fill the gaping hole left by PF/C Greg Monroe this summer. Morris’ team-friendly 4 year/$20 million deal doesn’t hurt, either. To be honest, I’m not sure how this trade could’ve been any better from Detroit’s perspective.
Grade: A+
Major thanks to Corbin Fields (@ctuck_fields) for his significant contribution to this article.
Best/Worst Draft Scenarios
(#8 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Drafting SF Justise Winslow (Duke, Freshman)
The Pistons need perimeter shooting. Bad. With big men PF/C Greg Monroe and C/PF Andre Drummond clogging up the middle, they desperately need quality three-point shooters to prevent opposing defenses from collapsing in the paint on Detroit’s duo. Enter Winslow: a terrific shooter who hit 42% from deep as well as 48.5% overall -- very efficient numbers. He’s also a fantastic defender that can guard multiple positions and chipped in a combined 2.2 steals and blocks per game in his National Title-winning season at Duke. Winslow also added 12.5 points and 6.5 rebounds, making him perhaps the most well-rounded player in the draft, and a perfect fit for Detroit.
Worst Case Scenario: SG/SF Mario Hezonja and SF Justise Winslow (Duke, Freshman) gone
Detroit should come into the draft with the following philosophy: target Hezonja, but if by some miracle Winslow falls to them, pounce on that opportunity. This is because they need outside shooting, and these are two of the best shooters in the draft. However, if both are gone, Detroit will be forced to settle with SF Stanley Johnson, unless PF/C Kristaps Porzingis is available. Porzingis would not be a horrible choice considering PF/C Greg Monroe’s impending free agency, but certainly not ideal. Neither would Johnson [be a horrible choice], but he doesn’t really fill the need the Pistons have (three-point shooting) as well as guys like Hezonja or Winslow.
Draft Targets
Pick #7: Justise Winslow, Small Forward, Duke
Winslow does it all, and he does it very well and on a consistent basis. He enters the tournament with double-digit scoring outings in Duke’s last 14 games, as well as hitting at least one three-pointer in 28 of their 33 games thus far. He’s connecting on a very impressive 40% of those threes, and the Pistons could use all the range they can get considering PF/C Greg Monroe and C/PF Andre Drummond are in their frontcourt. Winslow provides that and more, as he’s also very athletic and an excellent defender. He’s started to take his man off the dribble and slash to the basket more as of late, and has excelled at it. Winslow really is the complete package, and given their lack of depth at small forward, it’s hard for the Pistons to pass on him here.
Season Predictions
Regular Season: The Pistons currently find themselves well under .500, but still in contention for a playoff spot. This is because they play in the weaker Eastern Conference, where they will be competing with the likes of Charlotte, Brooklyn, and Boston for the final playoff spot out East. This is pathetic when you consider that the much more talented Pelicans and Suns teams will not make the playoffs just because they play in the West, but that's a separate discussion. After PG Brandon Jennings went down with a season-ending injury, the Pistons replaced him with PG Reggie Jackson at the trade deadline in an effort to stay in the hunt. Detroit is still led by a revitalized frontcourt after PF/SF Josh Smith's release, featuring young big men PF/C Greg Monroe and C/PF Andre Drummond, as well as a plethora of solid wing scorers. Still, this is far from what one would consider a playoff team, even in the East, and the #8 spot will likely go to a more experienced Brooklyn squad. The playoffs will likely come soon for these young Pistons, but for now they will have to wait.
Projected Record: 36-46, 9th in East
Trade Grades
Pistons get: PG Reggie Jackson
Jazz get: PF Grant Jerrett, C Kendrick Perkins, C Tibor Pleiss Oklahoma City’s 2017 first-rounder
Thunder get: PG D.J Augustin, C Enes Kanter, SF/SG Kyle Singler, PF Steve Novak
With PG Brandon Jennings out for the year with a torn Achilles, it was clear the Pistons needed a point guard if they had any chance of making the playoffs. With Jackson, they got a starting-caliber one while giving up next to nothing. Both Augustin and Singler were having nice seasons, but Jackson has serious upside as a future star in this league. When handed 38 minutes per game in November, the month where superstar teammates PG Russell Westbrook and SF/PF Kevin Durant were dealing with injuries, Jackson put up very impressive numbers: 19.5 points, 7.5 assists, and 5.5 rebounds, though turnovers and inefficient shooting plagued the 24 year old and continue to do so. This actually could help the Pistons, as these issues are common in younger guards, but could also help them in getting a nice deal with Jackson in restricted free agency this summer. All in all, not much lost for a kid with a very bright future.
Grade: A-
Trade Grades
Pistons get: SF Tayshaun Prince
Suns get: SG Marcus Thornton, Cleveland’s 2016 first-rounder via Boston (top 10 protected in 2016, 2017, 2018, unprotected in 2019)
Celtics get: PG Isaiah Thomas, PF Jonas Jerebko, SF Luigi Datome
In this trade, Detroit was one of those teams that kind of just wedges themselves into a trade totally unnecessarily, and it definitely worked out for them. I’m sure they got a few pointers from New Orleans, who in turn took a page out of Philadelphia’s book (read Norris Cole Trade Grades under New Orleans to understand this one). This deal was mainly about Thomas going to Boston, but the Pistons managed to snag a productive small forward in Prince in exchange for a couple of rarely-used forwards. It was actually pretty necessary to bring Prince back for his second stint with Detroit, as SF Kyle Singler was dealt to the Thunder in a separate trade today, and the Pistons needed a replacement. Prince is nothing special, he’s on an expiring deal and is 34, but he is averaging a solid 7.5 points and 3 rebounds a game, and can space the floor as well. Nice pickup for the Pistons while giving little to nothing in this trade.
Grade: A-
One Trade That Every Team Should Do
Detroit gets: SF/PF Wilson Chandler
Denver gets: SF/PF Jonas Jerebko, SF/SG Kyle Singler, Detroit’s 2015 second-rounder, Detroit’s 2017 second-rounder
Finances: As mentioned in a lot of other teams, Chandler is due for about $14 million over the next two years, including a very reasonable $7.2 million team option for next season. Jerebko, with an expiring contract worth $4.5 million, is simply a cap-filler to make this deal work. The 26 year old Singler and the second-rounder are the main assets being shipped to Denver in exchange for Chandler. Singler is on the final year of his rookie deal at just $1.1 million, and is certainly due for a raise this offseason.
The Fit: Detroit can’t simply be labeled as a young, upcoming team anymore. With stars PG Brandon Jennings and PF/C Greg Monroe already at 25 and 24, respectively, there is a small sense of urgency in the Motor City. Simply hanging onto young players with upside and draft picks doesn’t make a whole lot of sense, especially if you can turn them into a player like Chandler. Small forward is a hole for Detroit, as they boast stars at all other positions, except perhaps at shooting guard. Chandler more than addresses this hole, as he provides 14 points, 6 rebounds, and 2 threes a game, as well as above-average defense. At 27, he fits in well with others, and is the missing link for Detroit to finally make a playoff push.
Why the other team does it: Denver has been shopping their veterans, like Chandler, in exchange for future assets. Singler is averaging 1.5 threes a game this season, and could help space the floor for a future Nuggets team that would contend for the title. The second-rounders also give Denver more draft picks to work with as they look to hand the franchise over to their younger players. Selling Chandler, who has little value to the Nuggets, for such a large package makes plenty of sense for Denver at this stage.
State of the Franchise
Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $31 million
Background: Josh Smith. Saying that name to a Detroit Pistons fan is all it will take to give them horrible nightmares. After being signed to a 4 year/$54 million in 2013 in what was a highly questionable deal from the start, Smith (PF, SF Hou) has been nothing short of a complete disaster in multiple ways. Not only did his record-setting inefficiency of 41.9% shooting on 16 attempts totally kill the Pistons’ season en route to a 29-53 record, but he also got head coach Lawrence Frank and GM Joe Dumars fired for Detroit’s lack of success. In addition, when Smith began playing in Motor City, it caused PF Greg Monroe to get fewer minutes and opportunities, making him very frustrated and in turn causing him to sign a one-year qualifying offer from Detroit as opposed to a long-term extension. Monroe was not the only big man who had fewer opportunities due to Josh Smith, however. Young, upcoming star C Andre Drummond’s development was severely hindered by Smith taking lots of minutes, shots and opportunities, as well as causing spacing issues in the Pistons’ frontcourt. And just in case you aren’t convinced that Smith was absolutely the worst off-season signing of all time, that 4 year/$54 million contract should speak for itself. Finally, after being absolutely fed up with everything Smith had done to the organization, Detroit released him. Done with Josh Smith. Never going to think about him again. Right? Wrong. The remainder of his contract must still be paid out, and that will come in the form of $5.4 million annually over five years. That’s right: Smith will continue to haunt Detroit fans everywhere with that $5.4 million counting against the cap for the next five years, even though Smith isn’t even on the team (he is now causing issues for the Houston Rockets). However, the non-Smith roster of this squad has potential. Despite the season-ending injury to PG Brandon Jennings, this is clearly a rebuilding franchise. Monroe and Drummond figure to be cornerstones for Detroit for years to come, and despite this season pretty much being lost, the Smith-less future in Motor City promises to be bright.
Current Financial State: As funny as this may seem, Detroit paying Smith not to play for them anymore will be the third-highest salary the Pistons will pay next season. PG Brandon Jennings is the first, and after a season-ending injury, the jury is still out on whether he’s the long-term answer at PG for Detroit. Detroit money was thrown around to average shooters this offseason in a sort of odd way, but none of the contracts are too horrible, despite each being a touch pricey. SG Jodie Meeks, SF Caron Butler, and PG DJ Augustin will make a combined $13.8 million next year, with Meeks’ deal carrying into the 2016-2017 season. Fortunately for Detroit, future stars SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and C Andre Drummond are still on their ridiculously cheap rookie deals of approximately $2.6 million apiece. Monroe remains the only question mark this offseason. A restricted free agent last offseason, Monroe and the Pistons were not able to work out an extension, and after not getting any offers from other teams, the power forward was forced to agree to the 1 year/$5.5 million qualifying offer from Detroit, far less than he is actually worth. Now with Smith gone and a full-time starting job in Detroit, Monroe was vital to the Pistons’ turn-around post-Josh Smith, and this off-season he is due for a payday. A 4 year/$56 million contract for Monroe seems fair, given what he can offer to the Pistons and what the market will hold for him. Still, that would leave the Pistons with roughly $20 million in available cap before the luxury tax.
Targets: One interesting way to spend this money would be on Spurs SF Kawhi Leonard. The Pistons can offer Leonard a max deal of 5 years/$90 million, and he is worth every penny of it, considering he won Finals MVP at just 23 years old. The only potential issue with this deal is that Leonard is restricted to the San Antonio Spurs. It is more likely than not that the defending champions will match any offers, including the max, as Leonard represents the future of the franchise. However, if they do not, a lineup consisting of Jennings, Caldwell-Pope, Leonard, Monroe and Drummond will have opponents quaking with fear for years to come. Should they strike out on Leonard, they should not sign anyone else to a long-term deal, as financial flexibility is key to a rebuilding franchise.
The Fit: Monroe’s fit with the Pistons is obvious. A low-post scorer who can grab rebounds in bunches, Monroe presents the optimal fit next to Drummond, who is an elite rim protector still figuring out his offensive game. It is absolutely vital, however, that Monroe develop a mid-range jump shot. Having Monroe and Drummond in the paint would present serious spacing issues for the Pistons’ offense, no matter how many shooters are on the court. This can wait, however, because the Pistons have little interest in winning right away. Despite being unrestricted, Monroe is still highly likely to remain in Motor City. Leonard, on the other hand, is a bit of a long shot, but he does provide an interesting fit in Motor City. An elite defensive stopper, Leonard represents a truly imposing frame, especially for his position. He is a 6’7” small forward with a 7’3” wingspan, not to mention hands that are 9.8 inches long and 11.3 inches wide (seriously, measure your hands to see how they compare). The reigning Finals MVP also has a rapidly improving offensive game, averaging 15.5 ppg, building off of last season’s 12.8. Also an above average rebounder, Leonard has all the tools to become a superstar in this league. He addresses a need for a wing defender for Detroit, and would immediately slide in as the starting small-forward. With Leonard in town, Detroit would become a force for years to come.
Current seeding: 8th
Projected seeding: 7th
Things weren’t looking so great for Detroit at this point last season: PF/C Greg Monroe was either going to be overpaid or lost in free agency, there were too many overpaid wing players, and just no other quality long-term pieces other than the offensively-challenged C Andre Drummond. But then president Stan Van Gundy acquired PG Reggie Jackson for spare parts at the trade deadline and extended him in the offseason. Next, he revamped the team’s depleted forwards by acquiring SF/PF Marcus Morris, drafting SF/PF Stanley Johnson, and recently using Brandon Jennings (PG, ORL) to upgrade from Ersan Ilyasova (PF/SF, ORL) to PF/SF Tobias Harris. Now, led by the star trio of the future in Jackson, Harris, and Drummond, as well as an abundance of complementar role players, the Pistons are bound to snap their playoff drought this season.
First round: Toronto Raptors (2)
When playing against the Raptors, the question on every team’s mind is always: “How can we possibly slow down PG Kyle Lowry and SG DeMar DeRozan?” For the Pistons, that strategy is going to have to rely a lot on Andre Drummond to protect the paint against the speedy duo, as he will have to meet them at the rim consistently on their drives. The problem here is that the Raptors have C Jonas Valanciunas and others who can finish around the rim if Drummond were to leave them unguarded, meaning that much of the burden will need to fall on Jackson, SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and other Detroit guards, who are not exactly touted for their perimeter defense. Offensively, the Pistons have many scoring threats, but Toronto’s defenders are simply too quick for isolation basketball to work. Thus passing and moving the ball will need to be a priority for Motor City, but the problem remains that the team ranks second-to-last in both assist rate and true shooting percentage.
With the dearth of talent that Detroit has, and the surface-view mediocre levels belonging to Toronto, I could see this being a trendy upset pick and frankly wouldn’t be too surprised if the Pistons pulled it off. Still, Detroit has very little quality bench depth, as compared with Toronto’s, who have among the best second-units in the league that could easily outscore their foes by the bunches during the 30% of the game that they are on the floor. This is just not a good matchup for the Pistons, but we’ll be sure to see them here next year.
Prediction: Toronto wins, 4-2
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Houston Rockets Trade Grades
Pistons get: PF Donatas Motiejunas, SG Marcus Thornton
Rockets get: C Joel Anthony, protected 2016 first-round pick (top 8 protected this year, top 10 the following two years)
Very risky move here. After the Harris trade, it was evident that Detroit was looking to end their six-year playoff drought. Anthony has been useless with the Pistons (0.7 points, 1.2 rebounds in 4 minutes per game) and was used as a cap-filler in this deal; and after trading away Jennings, acquiring a backcourt gunner like Thornton (10 points, 1.6 threes per game) makes sense. So far, so good, right?
But where it gets tricky is the part where, oh yeah, the Pistons just gave up a first-rounder! Now, obviously they netted the solid power forward Motiejunas in return, who put up 12 points and 5.9 rebounds per game on 50.4% shooting last season. But the youngster has been plagued by back injuries this year, with averages of just 5.6 points and 2.1 rebounds in 13.4 minutes per game in the mere 14 games he has played. It should also be noted that Motiejunas will be entering restricted free agency this offseason, forcing Detroit to cough up considerable cash to keep him around, unlike the cheap rookie deal that could've been spent on the use of that draft pick. In sum, while Motiejunas is talented, the presence of forwards Marcus Morris, Stanley Johnson, and now Tobias Harris make coughing up a first-rounder a highly questionable move. Is Detroit's present so great that they can afford to damage their future?
Grade: C
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Orlando Magic Trade Grades
Pistons get: PF/SF Tobias Harris
Magic get: PG Brandon Jennings, PF/SF Ersan Ilyasova
Perfect. With PG Reggie Jackson absolutely dominating at point guard, the struggling Jennings was a spare part, and was used absolutely brilliantly here by Stan Van Gundy to give a much-needed bolstering to the teams' forward rotation.
Jennings has been dismal since returning from an ACL injury, averaging 6.8 points and 3 assists on 37.3% shooting in 18 minutes per game. Finding a team willing to take a chance on him makes a lot of sense.
Ilysasova is having a solid year, with averages of 11.3 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 1.5 threes per game. Both the stretch-four and Jenning are on expiring deals worth $8 million, and it was unknown whether Detroit even wanted to keep them this offseason, nor if they wanted to stay at all.
Harris is the complement to stars Jackson and C Andre Drummond that the team has been looking for... ever since Josh Smith (just kidding, relax). This is a down year for the 23-year-old as well, with averages of 13.7 points and 7 rebounds per game, regressing from 17 ppg last season. When a young player regresses or plateaus, it generally sounds off alarms in the front office, as young players are supposed to be consistently climbing uphill. But Harris has not exactly been put in the proper offensive role, and is still shooting efficiently, meaning it is more of the Magic's fault than his for his lack of scoring. Thus Harris was the perfect buy-low target for a Detroit team that badly needed a quality forward. With Tobias' 4 year/$64 million contract being the sum of Jennings and Ilyasova's anyways (in terms of dollars per year), this was an excellent trade to complete the star trio (Harris, Jackson, Drummond) of the future.
Grade: A-
Power Rankings
Overall Rank: 19th
Tier: Playoff Hopefuls
Projected Seeding: 9th in East
Building around star C Andre Drummond, the Pistons have completely overhauled their roster over these past couple of years. Star PF/C Greg Monroe is gone, but that star power has been somewhat replaced by the point guard duo of Reggie Jackson and Brandon Jennings. There is also a plethora of shooters and other role players on the wing, including SF/SG Danny Granger, SG Jodie Meeks, PF/SF Ersan Ilyasova, and PF/SF Marcus Morris. Youngsters SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and SF/PF Stanley Johnson also figure to make an immediate impact, but there are a couple flaws with this team. While Drummond anchors a solid defense and the Pistons' shooters make up for the star center's lack of spacing, there is a glaring lack of scorers on the roster. The backcourt duo of Jackson and Jennings can absolutely put the ball in the basket, but finding other playmakers on Detroit is a futile task. Drummond will need to supply some points from the low block, but as he only put up 13.8 points per game last year, he’s not the most reliable offensive option. The Pistons will absolutely be in the playoff hunt for almost the entire year, but unless Drummond grows a tremendous amount this year, particularly on the offensive end, Detroit will have to wait another year to snap their six year playoff drought.
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Phoenix Suns Trade Grades
Pistons get: PF/SF Marcus Morris, SF/SG Danny Granger, SF/SG Reggie Bullock
Suns get: 2020 second round pick from Detroit
This trade was a no brainer: Detroit received one starting-caliber player, and two role players, all for just a relatively worthless 2020 second round draft pick. Danny Granger was a 20 point scorer during his stint with Indiana, but. he only put up 6.3 points per game last season, splitting time with Miami and Phoenix. Still, there is a lot of hope in that he could even somewhat return to his old form, and little risk attached to his expiring $2.1 million deal. Reggie Bullock, on a cheap rookie deal, shot 38.5% from three pointers, while he was on the Clippers last year. Both will be key floor-spacers for the Pistons. But the real prize of this deal is of course Marcus Morris. The forward averaged 10.4 points and 4.8 rebounds per game last season in Phoenix. Marcus is a good three-point shooter (36.3% for his career) and can space the floor out easier for the Pistons’ playmakers to operate. He, rookie SF/PF Stanley Johnson, and PF/SF Ersan Ilyasova will compete to fill the gaping hole left by PF/C Greg Monroe this summer. Morris’ team-friendly 4 year/$20 million deal doesn’t hurt, either. To be honest, I’m not sure how this trade could’ve been any better from Detroit’s perspective.
Grade: A+
Major thanks to Corbin Fields (@ctuck_fields) for his significant contribution to this article.
Best/Worst Draft Scenarios
(#8 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Drafting SF Justise Winslow (Duke, Freshman)
The Pistons need perimeter shooting. Bad. With big men PF/C Greg Monroe and C/PF Andre Drummond clogging up the middle, they desperately need quality three-point shooters to prevent opposing defenses from collapsing in the paint on Detroit’s duo. Enter Winslow: a terrific shooter who hit 42% from deep as well as 48.5% overall -- very efficient numbers. He’s also a fantastic defender that can guard multiple positions and chipped in a combined 2.2 steals and blocks per game in his National Title-winning season at Duke. Winslow also added 12.5 points and 6.5 rebounds, making him perhaps the most well-rounded player in the draft, and a perfect fit for Detroit.
Worst Case Scenario: SG/SF Mario Hezonja and SF Justise Winslow (Duke, Freshman) gone
Detroit should come into the draft with the following philosophy: target Hezonja, but if by some miracle Winslow falls to them, pounce on that opportunity. This is because they need outside shooting, and these are two of the best shooters in the draft. However, if both are gone, Detroit will be forced to settle with SF Stanley Johnson, unless PF/C Kristaps Porzingis is available. Porzingis would not be a horrible choice considering PF/C Greg Monroe’s impending free agency, but certainly not ideal. Neither would Johnson [be a horrible choice], but he doesn’t really fill the need the Pistons have (three-point shooting) as well as guys like Hezonja or Winslow.
Draft Targets
Pick #7: Justise Winslow, Small Forward, Duke
Winslow does it all, and he does it very well and on a consistent basis. He enters the tournament with double-digit scoring outings in Duke’s last 14 games, as well as hitting at least one three-pointer in 28 of their 33 games thus far. He’s connecting on a very impressive 40% of those threes, and the Pistons could use all the range they can get considering PF/C Greg Monroe and C/PF Andre Drummond are in their frontcourt. Winslow provides that and more, as he’s also very athletic and an excellent defender. He’s started to take his man off the dribble and slash to the basket more as of late, and has excelled at it. Winslow really is the complete package, and given their lack of depth at small forward, it’s hard for the Pistons to pass on him here.
Season Predictions
Regular Season: The Pistons currently find themselves well under .500, but still in contention for a playoff spot. This is because they play in the weaker Eastern Conference, where they will be competing with the likes of Charlotte, Brooklyn, and Boston for the final playoff spot out East. This is pathetic when you consider that the much more talented Pelicans and Suns teams will not make the playoffs just because they play in the West, but that's a separate discussion. After PG Brandon Jennings went down with a season-ending injury, the Pistons replaced him with PG Reggie Jackson at the trade deadline in an effort to stay in the hunt. Detroit is still led by a revitalized frontcourt after PF/SF Josh Smith's release, featuring young big men PF/C Greg Monroe and C/PF Andre Drummond, as well as a plethora of solid wing scorers. Still, this is far from what one would consider a playoff team, even in the East, and the #8 spot will likely go to a more experienced Brooklyn squad. The playoffs will likely come soon for these young Pistons, but for now they will have to wait.
Projected Record: 36-46, 9th in East
Trade Grades
Pistons get: PG Reggie Jackson
Jazz get: PF Grant Jerrett, C Kendrick Perkins, C Tibor Pleiss Oklahoma City’s 2017 first-rounder
Thunder get: PG D.J Augustin, C Enes Kanter, SF/SG Kyle Singler, PF Steve Novak
With PG Brandon Jennings out for the year with a torn Achilles, it was clear the Pistons needed a point guard if they had any chance of making the playoffs. With Jackson, they got a starting-caliber one while giving up next to nothing. Both Augustin and Singler were having nice seasons, but Jackson has serious upside as a future star in this league. When handed 38 minutes per game in November, the month where superstar teammates PG Russell Westbrook and SF/PF Kevin Durant were dealing with injuries, Jackson put up very impressive numbers: 19.5 points, 7.5 assists, and 5.5 rebounds, though turnovers and inefficient shooting plagued the 24 year old and continue to do so. This actually could help the Pistons, as these issues are common in younger guards, but could also help them in getting a nice deal with Jackson in restricted free agency this summer. All in all, not much lost for a kid with a very bright future.
Grade: A-
Trade Grades
Pistons get: SF Tayshaun Prince
Suns get: SG Marcus Thornton, Cleveland’s 2016 first-rounder via Boston (top 10 protected in 2016, 2017, 2018, unprotected in 2019)
Celtics get: PG Isaiah Thomas, PF Jonas Jerebko, SF Luigi Datome
In this trade, Detroit was one of those teams that kind of just wedges themselves into a trade totally unnecessarily, and it definitely worked out for them. I’m sure they got a few pointers from New Orleans, who in turn took a page out of Philadelphia’s book (read Norris Cole Trade Grades under New Orleans to understand this one). This deal was mainly about Thomas going to Boston, but the Pistons managed to snag a productive small forward in Prince in exchange for a couple of rarely-used forwards. It was actually pretty necessary to bring Prince back for his second stint with Detroit, as SF Kyle Singler was dealt to the Thunder in a separate trade today, and the Pistons needed a replacement. Prince is nothing special, he’s on an expiring deal and is 34, but he is averaging a solid 7.5 points and 3 rebounds a game, and can space the floor as well. Nice pickup for the Pistons while giving little to nothing in this trade.
Grade: A-
One Trade That Every Team Should Do
Detroit gets: SF/PF Wilson Chandler
Denver gets: SF/PF Jonas Jerebko, SF/SG Kyle Singler, Detroit’s 2015 second-rounder, Detroit’s 2017 second-rounder
Finances: As mentioned in a lot of other teams, Chandler is due for about $14 million over the next two years, including a very reasonable $7.2 million team option for next season. Jerebko, with an expiring contract worth $4.5 million, is simply a cap-filler to make this deal work. The 26 year old Singler and the second-rounder are the main assets being shipped to Denver in exchange for Chandler. Singler is on the final year of his rookie deal at just $1.1 million, and is certainly due for a raise this offseason.
The Fit: Detroit can’t simply be labeled as a young, upcoming team anymore. With stars PG Brandon Jennings and PF/C Greg Monroe already at 25 and 24, respectively, there is a small sense of urgency in the Motor City. Simply hanging onto young players with upside and draft picks doesn’t make a whole lot of sense, especially if you can turn them into a player like Chandler. Small forward is a hole for Detroit, as they boast stars at all other positions, except perhaps at shooting guard. Chandler more than addresses this hole, as he provides 14 points, 6 rebounds, and 2 threes a game, as well as above-average defense. At 27, he fits in well with others, and is the missing link for Detroit to finally make a playoff push.
Why the other team does it: Denver has been shopping their veterans, like Chandler, in exchange for future assets. Singler is averaging 1.5 threes a game this season, and could help space the floor for a future Nuggets team that would contend for the title. The second-rounders also give Denver more draft picks to work with as they look to hand the franchise over to their younger players. Selling Chandler, who has little value to the Nuggets, for such a large package makes plenty of sense for Denver at this stage.
State of the Franchise
Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $31 million
Background: Josh Smith. Saying that name to a Detroit Pistons fan is all it will take to give them horrible nightmares. After being signed to a 4 year/$54 million in 2013 in what was a highly questionable deal from the start, Smith (PF, SF Hou) has been nothing short of a complete disaster in multiple ways. Not only did his record-setting inefficiency of 41.9% shooting on 16 attempts totally kill the Pistons’ season en route to a 29-53 record, but he also got head coach Lawrence Frank and GM Joe Dumars fired for Detroit’s lack of success. In addition, when Smith began playing in Motor City, it caused PF Greg Monroe to get fewer minutes and opportunities, making him very frustrated and in turn causing him to sign a one-year qualifying offer from Detroit as opposed to a long-term extension. Monroe was not the only big man who had fewer opportunities due to Josh Smith, however. Young, upcoming star C Andre Drummond’s development was severely hindered by Smith taking lots of minutes, shots and opportunities, as well as causing spacing issues in the Pistons’ frontcourt. And just in case you aren’t convinced that Smith was absolutely the worst off-season signing of all time, that 4 year/$54 million contract should speak for itself. Finally, after being absolutely fed up with everything Smith had done to the organization, Detroit released him. Done with Josh Smith. Never going to think about him again. Right? Wrong. The remainder of his contract must still be paid out, and that will come in the form of $5.4 million annually over five years. That’s right: Smith will continue to haunt Detroit fans everywhere with that $5.4 million counting against the cap for the next five years, even though Smith isn’t even on the team (he is now causing issues for the Houston Rockets). However, the non-Smith roster of this squad has potential. Despite the season-ending injury to PG Brandon Jennings, this is clearly a rebuilding franchise. Monroe and Drummond figure to be cornerstones for Detroit for years to come, and despite this season pretty much being lost, the Smith-less future in Motor City promises to be bright.
Current Financial State: As funny as this may seem, Detroit paying Smith not to play for them anymore will be the third-highest salary the Pistons will pay next season. PG Brandon Jennings is the first, and after a season-ending injury, the jury is still out on whether he’s the long-term answer at PG for Detroit. Detroit money was thrown around to average shooters this offseason in a sort of odd way, but none of the contracts are too horrible, despite each being a touch pricey. SG Jodie Meeks, SF Caron Butler, and PG DJ Augustin will make a combined $13.8 million next year, with Meeks’ deal carrying into the 2016-2017 season. Fortunately for Detroit, future stars SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and C Andre Drummond are still on their ridiculously cheap rookie deals of approximately $2.6 million apiece. Monroe remains the only question mark this offseason. A restricted free agent last offseason, Monroe and the Pistons were not able to work out an extension, and after not getting any offers from other teams, the power forward was forced to agree to the 1 year/$5.5 million qualifying offer from Detroit, far less than he is actually worth. Now with Smith gone and a full-time starting job in Detroit, Monroe was vital to the Pistons’ turn-around post-Josh Smith, and this off-season he is due for a payday. A 4 year/$56 million contract for Monroe seems fair, given what he can offer to the Pistons and what the market will hold for him. Still, that would leave the Pistons with roughly $20 million in available cap before the luxury tax.
Targets: One interesting way to spend this money would be on Spurs SF Kawhi Leonard. The Pistons can offer Leonard a max deal of 5 years/$90 million, and he is worth every penny of it, considering he won Finals MVP at just 23 years old. The only potential issue with this deal is that Leonard is restricted to the San Antonio Spurs. It is more likely than not that the defending champions will match any offers, including the max, as Leonard represents the future of the franchise. However, if they do not, a lineup consisting of Jennings, Caldwell-Pope, Leonard, Monroe and Drummond will have opponents quaking with fear for years to come. Should they strike out on Leonard, they should not sign anyone else to a long-term deal, as financial flexibility is key to a rebuilding franchise.
The Fit: Monroe’s fit with the Pistons is obvious. A low-post scorer who can grab rebounds in bunches, Monroe presents the optimal fit next to Drummond, who is an elite rim protector still figuring out his offensive game. It is absolutely vital, however, that Monroe develop a mid-range jump shot. Having Monroe and Drummond in the paint would present serious spacing issues for the Pistons’ offense, no matter how many shooters are on the court. This can wait, however, because the Pistons have little interest in winning right away. Despite being unrestricted, Monroe is still highly likely to remain in Motor City. Leonard, on the other hand, is a bit of a long shot, but he does provide an interesting fit in Motor City. An elite defensive stopper, Leonard represents a truly imposing frame, especially for his position. He is a 6’7” small forward with a 7’3” wingspan, not to mention hands that are 9.8 inches long and 11.3 inches wide (seriously, measure your hands to see how they compare). The reigning Finals MVP also has a rapidly improving offensive game, averaging 15.5 ppg, building off of last season’s 12.8. Also an above average rebounder, Leonard has all the tools to become a superstar in this league. He addresses a need for a wing defender for Detroit, and would immediately slide in as the starting small-forward. With Leonard in town, Detroit would become a force for years to come.
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