Season Predictions 2016
Current seeding: 10th
Projected seeding: 11th
I’d actually consider this a year of progress for Denver. Despite the messy exit of PG Ty Lawson, the season-ending injuries of SF’s Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari, and the plateau of prospect C Jusuf Nurkic, the Nuggets learned a lot about their future this season. Obviously this conversation starts with the breakout of SG/SF Will Barton, who dominated as an all-around player and is surely part of the future. PF Kenneth Faried performed at a high enough level to keep his trade value above water, and rookies PG Emmanuel Mudiay and PF/C Nikola Jokic firmly cemented their respective places as cornerstones of this roster. Of course, this was never supposed to be a playoff team this year, and obviously there is still more work to do for the Nuggets, but I’m starting to see a glimmer of hope that maybe, just maybe, they’re finally trending in the right direction.
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Oklahoma City Thunder Trade Grades
Thunder get: SG Randy Foye
Nuggets get: PF/SF Steve Novak, PG/SG D.J Augustin, two second-rounders
What's not to like? Augustin's contracts is expiring after this season, and Novak has just been bought-out, so there are no long-term financial issues here. And Foye was putting up career-lows in minutes (19.8) and points (6.0) this season, yet Denver was still able to cash him in for a pair of second-rounders. For a 22-32 team, that's just a dream come true, albeit on a very minor scale.
Grade: A
Power Rankings
Overall Rank: 28th
Tier: Bottom Feeders
Projected Seeding: 14th in West
It’s not easy to figure out exactly what the Nuggets are doing. On one hand, as their current roster configuration is not working, it would make sense to tear it all down by trading away their key contributors. And to an extent, that’s exactly what Denver has done; PG Ty Lawson, SG Arron Afflalo, and C Timofey Mozgov were all shipped out in exchange for prospects/draft picks. However, SG Randy Foye (31), SF Wilson Chandler (28), and SF Danilo Galinari (27) were all handed multi-year extensions this offseason, and PF Kenneth Faried (25) is still under a long-term contract from an extension during last season. There are some nice prospects on this team, such as rookie PG Emmanuel Mudiay and second-year C Jusuf Nurkic that could one day become superstars, but it’s hard to understand what to make of this mish-mosh of talent that also features a couple decent role players. What we do know, however, is that this is the same team that won just 30 games last season, sans Ty Lawson, their best player. They’re firmly out of the playoff picture for now.
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Houston Rockets Trade Grades
Nuggets get: SF/PF Kostas Papanikolaou, SG/PG Nick Johnson, PG Pablo Prigioni, C/PF Joey Dorsey, 2016 first round pick from Houston (lottery protected)
Rockets get: PG Ty Lawson
The Nuggets needed to get rid of Lawson. There was no doubt about it. He was not getting along with teammates and staff alike, was unhappy in Denver, recently picked up his fourth DUI (among other off-the-court issues), would have just been hindering the development of rookie PG Emmanuel Mudiay… the list goes on. These factors hurt not only Lawson’s trade value, but the Nuggets’ leverage in negotiations as a whole. Still, the UNC product is a star that put up 15.2 points and 9.6 assists per game on an underachieving Denver team last season. In addition, he ranked seventh amongst all players in points produced via either scoring or assists last season. SEVENTH! I get all the issues working against Denver in trading the disgruntled point guard, I really do. They really tried to make the best of a bad situation. But for these issues to hurt Lawson’s value to the point that he’s only worth a late first-rounder and a collection of role players, considering all the other potential suitors for him, is surprising.
Grade: B-
Best/Worst Draft Scenarios
(#7 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Drafting SF Justise Winslow (Duke, Freshman)
As the Nuggets are still searching for their identity on the basketball court and have seemingly their entire roster on the trade block, it’s hard to pinpoint a specific player which they should draft. However, therefore they should target a do-it-all player that can fit in with any identity, which would be Winslow. A relentless defender that averaged a combined 2.2 blocks and steals per game, Winslow is also a national champion. He can stretch a defense with the three-ball, as he connected on a highly efficient 42% of his treys as well as 48.5% from the field overall. The best small forward in the class, he also added 12.5 point and 6. rebounds. Winslow can fit in with any roster that the Nuggets put together.
Worst Case Scenario: Towns, Okafor, Russell, Mudiay, Winslow, and Porzingis all gone
There are relatively clear tiers in this draft class: Tier 1: Karl Towns and Jahlil Okafor. Tier 2: D’Angelo Russell, Emmanuel Mudiay, and Kristaps Porzingis. Tier 3: Justise Winslow and Willie Cauley-Stein, with guys like Mario Hezonja and Stanley Johnson consisting of tier number four. Now, the position at seventh overall isn’t too bad for Denver, as they come right at the end of the third tier. However, if Cauley-Stein were to fall to them, that would be an issue, as he plays center. That’s the one position the Nuggets do not need, as Jusuf Nurkic has made it plenty clear with his impressive play that he is the long-term answer in Denver down-low. This would cause the Nuggets to do a minor reach on either Hezonja or Johnson -- not bad players by any stretch, but a small step down from tier #3 nonetheless.
Draft Targets
Pick #8: Kristaps Porzingis, Power Forward/Center, Latvia
Given the state the Nuggets are in, with their plethora of future draft picks and lacking of a true superstar, it makes sense for them to go high-risk, high-reward here, and that’s exactly what Porzingis is. Though certainly not the biggest name in this draft class, Porzingis can score from anywhere on the court: down low, from midrange, and from beyond the arc, which is very useful considering his 7’0” frame. He’s also an above-average defender, and though we don’t know too much about him, he really does have all the tools to succeed in the NBA. I’d label him more reward than risk, and the Nuggets should certainly take a shot at the big fella.
Season Predictions
Regular Season: Denver has been the prime example of not being as good as the sum of their parts this season, as despite their abundance of quality players, they have sunk towards the bottom of the tough Western Conference and well out of playoff contention. The Nuggets have traded away SG/SF Arron Afflalo (POR), C Timofey Mozgov (CLE), C Javale McGee (waived by PHI), and PG/SG Nate Robinson (bought out by BOS) in an effort to simply tank away the season. That strategy has been working for the most part, but with big money committed to PG Ty Lawson and PF Kenneth Faried, it is unclear what the path of this team will be in the future. Right now, however, it’s about losses and ping-pong balls.
Projected Record: 29-53, 13th in East
Trade Grades
Nuggets get: SF/SG Cenk Akyol
76ers get: C Javale McGee, PF Chukwudiebere Maduabum, Oklahoma City’s 2015 first-rounder (top 18 protected this year, top 15 protected in 2016 and 2017, turns into 2018 and 2019 second-rounders if not conveyed)
As mentioned under Philadelphia, this trade is not about the weird foreign guys at all. This trade is purely about dumping McGee’s awful 2 years/$23.25 million on the Sixers and sending them a first-rounder as well to make this deal fair: a simple salary dump. In general, a pick with protections like this one in exchange for $12 million in cap space over two years would be pretty fair for both sides. However, this one isn’t so great for Denver for two reasons. 1: McGee’s contract expired in advance of the legendary 2016 offseason anyways. And 2: Denver doesn’t need that cap space! As a young, rebuilding team (like the Sixers) looking to offload veterans in exchange for draft picks and prospects (i.e Arron Afflalo and Timofey Mozgov deals), this trade is certainly a head-scratcher. Denver shouldn’t and doesn’t (I think) have any intention of winning now, so sacrificing a future asset, the draft pick, for cap space they shouldn’t even use makes little sense.
Grade: D+
Trade Grades
Nuggets get: SG Will Barton, PF Thomas Robinson, PF/SF Victor Claver, second-rounder, 2016 first-rounder (lottery-protected, turns into 2 second-rounders if not conveyed)
Trail Blazers get: SG/SF Arron Afflalo, SF Alonzo Gee
The rebuild is officially on in Denver. After netting two first-rounders from Cleveland for C Timofey Mozgov, the Nuggets continue to deal away their veterans for future assets. The intention is clearly to win in the future and not now, and this trade helps that cause. Robinson is a former top-5 pick, but has been largely disappointing in the pros: averaging just 3.5 points and 4 rebounds per game in his third season. Still, this will be Robinson's fourth team in that span, and perhaps he can produce if handed more minutes than 12 per game, which is how many the Blazers have been giving him this year. Curiously, however, the Nuggets are entertaining the buyout that Robinson is currently seeking from them. Barton and Claver are young, but are unlikely to be anything more than role players. The picks are nice, and the first-rounder will likely be conveyed next year, as the Blazers are certainly no lottery team. Given the direction this Nuggets team is heading, they did very well with the package they got for Afflalo.
Grade: A
One Trade That Every Team Should Do
Denver gets: C Brook Lopez
Portland gets: SG/SF Arron Afflalo, PF Darrell Arthur
Brooklyn gets: C Joel Freeland, PF Victor Claver, SF Dorell Wright, Portland’s 2015 first-rounder
Finances: Lopez tends to get lumped in with teammates SG Joe Johnson and PG Deron Williams as overpaid, but those comparisons aren’t all that fair. Sure, Lopez’s contract is still quite pricey at $31.5 million total over the next two years, but for a guy who’s averaging 15.5 points on 50% shooting, while also chipping in 6 rebounds and 1.7 blocks a game, those figures aren’t so bad. Afflalo has a very reasonable contract worth $15 million over the next two years, and Arthur has an expiring $3.5 million deal. The small expiring contracts of Freeland, Claver, and Wright aren’t really of Denver’s concern in this three-team trade, as none of these players go from or to the Nuggets. Denver does take on some extra salary in this deal overall, but Lopez’s contract expires in advance of the legendary 2016 offseason.
The Fit: As the Nuggets look for more pieces to go forward with into this rebuilding process, center has to be the first position addressed. Jusuf Nurkic has promise, but if the Nuggets want an established star whose age lines up better with those of stars PG Ty Lawson and PF Kenneth Faried (27 and 25 respectively), the 26 year old is their man. Lopez is a great two-way player that can be relied upon to score down-low and anchor a defense, and Faried can make up for his lack of rebounding. Veteran pieces like Afflalo were expected to be exchanged for draft picks in an effort to stockpile them anyways, so bringing in a third team like Portland that can use a shooting guard makes sense. As opposed to trading a pick for Brook, then trading Afflalo for a pick, if you follow. Other veterans, namely SF Wilson Chandler, can be dealt for future assets from a team that has little interest in winning right away.
Why the other teams do it: Portland is in need of a scoring wing, with no reliable backup behind SG Wesley Matthews and SF Nicolas Batum. Batum’s disappointing campaign only makes this problem worse, and Afflalo is the man to help. Averaging 14.5 points and 1.5 threes per game, Afflalo could become an instant frontrunner for sixth man of the year. A contender right now, Portland has little use for the first-rounder, nor does it for any of the role players who are more than replaced by adding Arthur. For Brooklyn, they get to dump Lopez’s salary, and net a first-rounder in return. For a team that is itching to clear cap space and acquire assets with no intention to win right now, this is a perfect trade.
State of the Franchise
Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $8.8 million
Background: A few years ago, former Nuggets GM Masai Ujiri acquired SF/SG Andre Iguodala from the Philadelphia 76ers as part of the 3 team trade that landed C Dwight Howard in LA. During the 2012-13 season, the Nuggets finished with the third seed in the Western Conference and the best home record in the NBA. Head coach George Karl also went on to win the Coach of the Year award. Although they lost in the first round of the playoffs, they had quite a season. Then, they mysteriously let both Karl and Iguodala walk in free agency and are now left as a mediocre team in the competitive Western Conference, with the only bright spots being young upcoming stars PG Ty Lawson and PF Kenneth Faried.
Current Financial State: The Nuggets have $65 million committed in contracts next year, assuming they accept SF Wilson Chandler and SG Randy Foye's team options, which are $7 million and $3 million respectively. With Faried signed to a brand new 5 year/$60 million extension and Lawson under contract through the 2016-17 season on a 4 year/$48 million dollar deal, the Nuggets have little money to spend. Because they have an abundance of money locked up in those two long term deals, the Nuggets need to win now. They can either free up some space before the season is over and take a shot at a star through free agency or trade for some quality players with their plethora of depth and draft picks.
Targets: The Nuggets could free up cap space by trading away some highly paid players such as SG Arron Afflalo, SF Danilo Gallinari, and C Javale McGee. This would give them the cap space needed to sign a star. The most notable free agents in this year's class include: SF/PF LeBron James (CLE), PF/C Kevin Love (CLE), PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge (POR), C Marc Gasol (MEM), PF/C Tim Duncan (SA), PG Rajon Rondo (DAL), C Al Jefferson (CHA), and SG Dwyane Wade (MIA). However, many of these big names can be quickly eliminated. LeBron and Love are both likely to accept their player options, Aldridge has previously indicated that he would like to stay in Portland, and Duncan and Wade are both highly unlikely to play anywhere else besides their respective teams. That leaves just Gasol, Rondo, and Jefferson. Rondo plays the same position as Lawson, and Gasol and Jefferson are both a bit too old for the young Nuggets’ core. This eliminates the option of achieving their goals through free agency. The other option is to trade for some good young players to bolster their starting lineup. One name that pops up is C Brook Lopez of Brooklyn. The Nets are looking to trade away their star players in the hopes of a tear down or restart. They are looking to ship out Lopez and his 2 year/$32 million contract with a player option on the second year that he's likely to accept this offseason. However, the Nuggets would gladly take on that contract, even though it is an overpayment. This is because it expires at the end of next season, so they could re-sign him to a contract worth less money, perhaps $12-13 million annually, and go after another free agent in the stacked 2016 free agency class. Getting Lopez would probably mean shipping out McGee and Afflalo to even out the salaries, as well as possibly throwing in a second round draft pick.The Nuggets likely won't have enough money to sign a star in 2016, but they can go ahead and sign a second-tier player while other teams chase the big names such as LeBron, SF/PF Kevin Durant (OKC), C Dwight Howard (HOU), and PG Chris Paul (LAC). Two targets that come to mind in this offseason are SG Lance Stephenson (CHA) and SF/SG Nicolas Batum (POR). The Hornets will have a team option on Stephenson, but he has been disappointing thus far. They are both all around players at the wing position who can do just about everything, and should be paid accordingly. Although it is hard to predict these players’ values two years from now, Batum and Stephenson should each be signed for about what they’re making now, approximately $11.5 million and $9 million respectively. However, one must account for the NBA’s new TV deal when predicting future contracts, as this causes the salary cap to be inflated. Either way, the Nuggets should target these guys in hopes of building a contender.
The Fit: Lopez fits perfectly with the Nuggets. He is a big man who can put the ball in the basket and block shots, although he lacks skill in the rebounding department. By playing next to Faried, a high energy guy who can grab rebounds and also block shots, the holes in his game will be minimized and the two should blend perfectly together. He's also young, just 26 years old, and should fit in well with the others. After filling the hole at center, the wing position will need to be addressed. By grabbing an all-around small forward like Batum in free agency, they can compensate for Lopez's lack of rebounding as well as spacing the floor. Batum is also a fantastic wing defender, something Denver hasn’t had since Iguodala. By acquiring Lopez and Batum in the next two years, the Nuggets would be in great shape to contend for a title in the future.
Current seeding: 10th
Projected seeding: 11th
I’d actually consider this a year of progress for Denver. Despite the messy exit of PG Ty Lawson, the season-ending injuries of SF’s Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari, and the plateau of prospect C Jusuf Nurkic, the Nuggets learned a lot about their future this season. Obviously this conversation starts with the breakout of SG/SF Will Barton, who dominated as an all-around player and is surely part of the future. PF Kenneth Faried performed at a high enough level to keep his trade value above water, and rookies PG Emmanuel Mudiay and PF/C Nikola Jokic firmly cemented their respective places as cornerstones of this roster. Of course, this was never supposed to be a playoff team this year, and obviously there is still more work to do for the Nuggets, but I’m starting to see a glimmer of hope that maybe, just maybe, they’re finally trending in the right direction.
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Oklahoma City Thunder Trade Grades
Thunder get: SG Randy Foye
Nuggets get: PF/SF Steve Novak, PG/SG D.J Augustin, two second-rounders
What's not to like? Augustin's contracts is expiring after this season, and Novak has just been bought-out, so there are no long-term financial issues here. And Foye was putting up career-lows in minutes (19.8) and points (6.0) this season, yet Denver was still able to cash him in for a pair of second-rounders. For a 22-32 team, that's just a dream come true, albeit on a very minor scale.
Grade: A
Power Rankings
Overall Rank: 28th
Tier: Bottom Feeders
Projected Seeding: 14th in West
It’s not easy to figure out exactly what the Nuggets are doing. On one hand, as their current roster configuration is not working, it would make sense to tear it all down by trading away their key contributors. And to an extent, that’s exactly what Denver has done; PG Ty Lawson, SG Arron Afflalo, and C Timofey Mozgov were all shipped out in exchange for prospects/draft picks. However, SG Randy Foye (31), SF Wilson Chandler (28), and SF Danilo Galinari (27) were all handed multi-year extensions this offseason, and PF Kenneth Faried (25) is still under a long-term contract from an extension during last season. There are some nice prospects on this team, such as rookie PG Emmanuel Mudiay and second-year C Jusuf Nurkic that could one day become superstars, but it’s hard to understand what to make of this mish-mosh of talent that also features a couple decent role players. What we do know, however, is that this is the same team that won just 30 games last season, sans Ty Lawson, their best player. They’re firmly out of the playoff picture for now.
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Houston Rockets Trade Grades
Nuggets get: SF/PF Kostas Papanikolaou, SG/PG Nick Johnson, PG Pablo Prigioni, C/PF Joey Dorsey, 2016 first round pick from Houston (lottery protected)
Rockets get: PG Ty Lawson
The Nuggets needed to get rid of Lawson. There was no doubt about it. He was not getting along with teammates and staff alike, was unhappy in Denver, recently picked up his fourth DUI (among other off-the-court issues), would have just been hindering the development of rookie PG Emmanuel Mudiay… the list goes on. These factors hurt not only Lawson’s trade value, but the Nuggets’ leverage in negotiations as a whole. Still, the UNC product is a star that put up 15.2 points and 9.6 assists per game on an underachieving Denver team last season. In addition, he ranked seventh amongst all players in points produced via either scoring or assists last season. SEVENTH! I get all the issues working against Denver in trading the disgruntled point guard, I really do. They really tried to make the best of a bad situation. But for these issues to hurt Lawson’s value to the point that he’s only worth a late first-rounder and a collection of role players, considering all the other potential suitors for him, is surprising.
Grade: B-
Best/Worst Draft Scenarios
(#7 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Drafting SF Justise Winslow (Duke, Freshman)
As the Nuggets are still searching for their identity on the basketball court and have seemingly their entire roster on the trade block, it’s hard to pinpoint a specific player which they should draft. However, therefore they should target a do-it-all player that can fit in with any identity, which would be Winslow. A relentless defender that averaged a combined 2.2 blocks and steals per game, Winslow is also a national champion. He can stretch a defense with the three-ball, as he connected on a highly efficient 42% of his treys as well as 48.5% from the field overall. The best small forward in the class, he also added 12.5 point and 6. rebounds. Winslow can fit in with any roster that the Nuggets put together.
Worst Case Scenario: Towns, Okafor, Russell, Mudiay, Winslow, and Porzingis all gone
There are relatively clear tiers in this draft class: Tier 1: Karl Towns and Jahlil Okafor. Tier 2: D’Angelo Russell, Emmanuel Mudiay, and Kristaps Porzingis. Tier 3: Justise Winslow and Willie Cauley-Stein, with guys like Mario Hezonja and Stanley Johnson consisting of tier number four. Now, the position at seventh overall isn’t too bad for Denver, as they come right at the end of the third tier. However, if Cauley-Stein were to fall to them, that would be an issue, as he plays center. That’s the one position the Nuggets do not need, as Jusuf Nurkic has made it plenty clear with his impressive play that he is the long-term answer in Denver down-low. This would cause the Nuggets to do a minor reach on either Hezonja or Johnson -- not bad players by any stretch, but a small step down from tier #3 nonetheless.
Draft Targets
Pick #8: Kristaps Porzingis, Power Forward/Center, Latvia
Given the state the Nuggets are in, with their plethora of future draft picks and lacking of a true superstar, it makes sense for them to go high-risk, high-reward here, and that’s exactly what Porzingis is. Though certainly not the biggest name in this draft class, Porzingis can score from anywhere on the court: down low, from midrange, and from beyond the arc, which is very useful considering his 7’0” frame. He’s also an above-average defender, and though we don’t know too much about him, he really does have all the tools to succeed in the NBA. I’d label him more reward than risk, and the Nuggets should certainly take a shot at the big fella.
Season Predictions
Regular Season: Denver has been the prime example of not being as good as the sum of their parts this season, as despite their abundance of quality players, they have sunk towards the bottom of the tough Western Conference and well out of playoff contention. The Nuggets have traded away SG/SF Arron Afflalo (POR), C Timofey Mozgov (CLE), C Javale McGee (waived by PHI), and PG/SG Nate Robinson (bought out by BOS) in an effort to simply tank away the season. That strategy has been working for the most part, but with big money committed to PG Ty Lawson and PF Kenneth Faried, it is unclear what the path of this team will be in the future. Right now, however, it’s about losses and ping-pong balls.
Projected Record: 29-53, 13th in East
Trade Grades
Nuggets get: SF/SG Cenk Akyol
76ers get: C Javale McGee, PF Chukwudiebere Maduabum, Oklahoma City’s 2015 first-rounder (top 18 protected this year, top 15 protected in 2016 and 2017, turns into 2018 and 2019 second-rounders if not conveyed)
As mentioned under Philadelphia, this trade is not about the weird foreign guys at all. This trade is purely about dumping McGee’s awful 2 years/$23.25 million on the Sixers and sending them a first-rounder as well to make this deal fair: a simple salary dump. In general, a pick with protections like this one in exchange for $12 million in cap space over two years would be pretty fair for both sides. However, this one isn’t so great for Denver for two reasons. 1: McGee’s contract expired in advance of the legendary 2016 offseason anyways. And 2: Denver doesn’t need that cap space! As a young, rebuilding team (like the Sixers) looking to offload veterans in exchange for draft picks and prospects (i.e Arron Afflalo and Timofey Mozgov deals), this trade is certainly a head-scratcher. Denver shouldn’t and doesn’t (I think) have any intention of winning now, so sacrificing a future asset, the draft pick, for cap space they shouldn’t even use makes little sense.
Grade: D+
Trade Grades
Nuggets get: SG Will Barton, PF Thomas Robinson, PF/SF Victor Claver, second-rounder, 2016 first-rounder (lottery-protected, turns into 2 second-rounders if not conveyed)
Trail Blazers get: SG/SF Arron Afflalo, SF Alonzo Gee
The rebuild is officially on in Denver. After netting two first-rounders from Cleveland for C Timofey Mozgov, the Nuggets continue to deal away their veterans for future assets. The intention is clearly to win in the future and not now, and this trade helps that cause. Robinson is a former top-5 pick, but has been largely disappointing in the pros: averaging just 3.5 points and 4 rebounds per game in his third season. Still, this will be Robinson's fourth team in that span, and perhaps he can produce if handed more minutes than 12 per game, which is how many the Blazers have been giving him this year. Curiously, however, the Nuggets are entertaining the buyout that Robinson is currently seeking from them. Barton and Claver are young, but are unlikely to be anything more than role players. The picks are nice, and the first-rounder will likely be conveyed next year, as the Blazers are certainly no lottery team. Given the direction this Nuggets team is heading, they did very well with the package they got for Afflalo.
Grade: A
One Trade That Every Team Should Do
Denver gets: C Brook Lopez
Portland gets: SG/SF Arron Afflalo, PF Darrell Arthur
Brooklyn gets: C Joel Freeland, PF Victor Claver, SF Dorell Wright, Portland’s 2015 first-rounder
Finances: Lopez tends to get lumped in with teammates SG Joe Johnson and PG Deron Williams as overpaid, but those comparisons aren’t all that fair. Sure, Lopez’s contract is still quite pricey at $31.5 million total over the next two years, but for a guy who’s averaging 15.5 points on 50% shooting, while also chipping in 6 rebounds and 1.7 blocks a game, those figures aren’t so bad. Afflalo has a very reasonable contract worth $15 million over the next two years, and Arthur has an expiring $3.5 million deal. The small expiring contracts of Freeland, Claver, and Wright aren’t really of Denver’s concern in this three-team trade, as none of these players go from or to the Nuggets. Denver does take on some extra salary in this deal overall, but Lopez’s contract expires in advance of the legendary 2016 offseason.
The Fit: As the Nuggets look for more pieces to go forward with into this rebuilding process, center has to be the first position addressed. Jusuf Nurkic has promise, but if the Nuggets want an established star whose age lines up better with those of stars PG Ty Lawson and PF Kenneth Faried (27 and 25 respectively), the 26 year old is their man. Lopez is a great two-way player that can be relied upon to score down-low and anchor a defense, and Faried can make up for his lack of rebounding. Veteran pieces like Afflalo were expected to be exchanged for draft picks in an effort to stockpile them anyways, so bringing in a third team like Portland that can use a shooting guard makes sense. As opposed to trading a pick for Brook, then trading Afflalo for a pick, if you follow. Other veterans, namely SF Wilson Chandler, can be dealt for future assets from a team that has little interest in winning right away.
Why the other teams do it: Portland is in need of a scoring wing, with no reliable backup behind SG Wesley Matthews and SF Nicolas Batum. Batum’s disappointing campaign only makes this problem worse, and Afflalo is the man to help. Averaging 14.5 points and 1.5 threes per game, Afflalo could become an instant frontrunner for sixth man of the year. A contender right now, Portland has little use for the first-rounder, nor does it for any of the role players who are more than replaced by adding Arthur. For Brooklyn, they get to dump Lopez’s salary, and net a first-rounder in return. For a team that is itching to clear cap space and acquire assets with no intention to win right now, this is a perfect trade.
State of the Franchise
Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $8.8 million
Background: A few years ago, former Nuggets GM Masai Ujiri acquired SF/SG Andre Iguodala from the Philadelphia 76ers as part of the 3 team trade that landed C Dwight Howard in LA. During the 2012-13 season, the Nuggets finished with the third seed in the Western Conference and the best home record in the NBA. Head coach George Karl also went on to win the Coach of the Year award. Although they lost in the first round of the playoffs, they had quite a season. Then, they mysteriously let both Karl and Iguodala walk in free agency and are now left as a mediocre team in the competitive Western Conference, with the only bright spots being young upcoming stars PG Ty Lawson and PF Kenneth Faried.
Current Financial State: The Nuggets have $65 million committed in contracts next year, assuming they accept SF Wilson Chandler and SG Randy Foye's team options, which are $7 million and $3 million respectively. With Faried signed to a brand new 5 year/$60 million extension and Lawson under contract through the 2016-17 season on a 4 year/$48 million dollar deal, the Nuggets have little money to spend. Because they have an abundance of money locked up in those two long term deals, the Nuggets need to win now. They can either free up some space before the season is over and take a shot at a star through free agency or trade for some quality players with their plethora of depth and draft picks.
Targets: The Nuggets could free up cap space by trading away some highly paid players such as SG Arron Afflalo, SF Danilo Gallinari, and C Javale McGee. This would give them the cap space needed to sign a star. The most notable free agents in this year's class include: SF/PF LeBron James (CLE), PF/C Kevin Love (CLE), PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge (POR), C Marc Gasol (MEM), PF/C Tim Duncan (SA), PG Rajon Rondo (DAL), C Al Jefferson (CHA), and SG Dwyane Wade (MIA). However, many of these big names can be quickly eliminated. LeBron and Love are both likely to accept their player options, Aldridge has previously indicated that he would like to stay in Portland, and Duncan and Wade are both highly unlikely to play anywhere else besides their respective teams. That leaves just Gasol, Rondo, and Jefferson. Rondo plays the same position as Lawson, and Gasol and Jefferson are both a bit too old for the young Nuggets’ core. This eliminates the option of achieving their goals through free agency. The other option is to trade for some good young players to bolster their starting lineup. One name that pops up is C Brook Lopez of Brooklyn. The Nets are looking to trade away their star players in the hopes of a tear down or restart. They are looking to ship out Lopez and his 2 year/$32 million contract with a player option on the second year that he's likely to accept this offseason. However, the Nuggets would gladly take on that contract, even though it is an overpayment. This is because it expires at the end of next season, so they could re-sign him to a contract worth less money, perhaps $12-13 million annually, and go after another free agent in the stacked 2016 free agency class. Getting Lopez would probably mean shipping out McGee and Afflalo to even out the salaries, as well as possibly throwing in a second round draft pick.The Nuggets likely won't have enough money to sign a star in 2016, but they can go ahead and sign a second-tier player while other teams chase the big names such as LeBron, SF/PF Kevin Durant (OKC), C Dwight Howard (HOU), and PG Chris Paul (LAC). Two targets that come to mind in this offseason are SG Lance Stephenson (CHA) and SF/SG Nicolas Batum (POR). The Hornets will have a team option on Stephenson, but he has been disappointing thus far. They are both all around players at the wing position who can do just about everything, and should be paid accordingly. Although it is hard to predict these players’ values two years from now, Batum and Stephenson should each be signed for about what they’re making now, approximately $11.5 million and $9 million respectively. However, one must account for the NBA’s new TV deal when predicting future contracts, as this causes the salary cap to be inflated. Either way, the Nuggets should target these guys in hopes of building a contender.
The Fit: Lopez fits perfectly with the Nuggets. He is a big man who can put the ball in the basket and block shots, although he lacks skill in the rebounding department. By playing next to Faried, a high energy guy who can grab rebounds and also block shots, the holes in his game will be minimized and the two should blend perfectly together. He's also young, just 26 years old, and should fit in well with the others. After filling the hole at center, the wing position will need to be addressed. By grabbing an all-around small forward like Batum in free agency, they can compensate for Lopez's lack of rebounding as well as spacing the floor. Batum is also a fantastic wing defender, something Denver hasn’t had since Iguodala. By acquiring Lopez and Batum in the next two years, the Nuggets would be in great shape to contend for a title in the future.
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