Season Predictions 2016
Current seeding: 8th
Projected seeding: 8th
Dallas is currently locked in a tight battle with Portland, Houston, and Utah for the last playoff spot out West. But given their relatively soft remaining schedule, it seems as if Dirk and Co. will be able to stick around come April. They deserve it, too: after the DeAndre Jordan (C, LAC) debacle, the front office moved quickly to salvage their frontcourt around PF Dirk Nowitzki, adding C Zaza Pachulia and PF David Lee among others. The team also brought in SG Wesley Matthews and PG Deron Williams to start in their backcourt, and extended key backup PG/SG J.J Barea. With SF Chandler Parsons and Matthews at full health, and every member of the team, from Nowitzki down, firing on all cylinders, you’re looking at a playoff team.
First round: Golden State Warriors (1)
But you’re not looking at a second-round team, unless you’re looking at the Warriors. The only way a team would have a chance against Golden State is if they were to slow down the superstar backcourt of PG Stephen Curry and SG/SF Klay Thompson, and Dallas doesn’t even appear to have any quality perimeter defenders at all. That alone means Golden State will be averaging 100+ points per game in this series, and the fact that PF/SF Draymond Green, probably the best defender in the league, can guard either of Dallas’ top two scorers -- Parsons or Nowitzki -- means that the Mavs will have a tough time on offense too. So close, yet so very, very, very far away.
Prediction: Golden State wins, 4-0
Power Rankings
Overall rank: 18th
Tier: Playoff Hopefuls
Projected Seeding: 10th in West
Poor Mavericks. After star C DeAndre Jordan gave Dallas his word that he would sign with them, the team let starting C Tyson Chandler walk in free agency, only to see Jordan have a sudden change of heart and re-sign with the Clippers. The Mavs also let PG Rajon Rondo and SG Monta Ellis go during this saga, partially in order to open up cap space for DeAndre. To Dallas’ credit, however, they replaced Rondo and Ellis by bringin in the bought-out PG Deron Williams and SG/SF Wesley Matthews, respectively, which is practically an even swap in the backcourt. They also did excellent at center considering the circumstances, acquiring Zaza Pachulia and also signing Javale McGee and Samuel Dalembert. The Mavericks also have a pair of offensive stars in SF Chandler Parsons and PF Dirk Nowitzki, to round out a decent starting five. However, the bench is lacking despite some solid offensive firepower, and Nowitzki is really getting up there in years (37). With Dallas playing in the tough Southwest Division and an even tougher Western Conference, it seems likely that they’ll fall just short of the playoffs after a hard-fought battle for the #8 seed in the Wild West.
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Milwaukee Bucks Trade Grade
Mavericks get: C/PF Zaza Pachulia
Bucks get: Second-round pick (from Dallas)
I love everything about this deal for Dallas. They were spurned badly by superstar C DeAndre Jordan’s sudden change of heart in free agency. So badly, in fact, that they let starting C Tyson Chandler walk away due to the assumption that they would land Jordan. After these unfortunate series of events, the Mavericks desperately a quality center, and got one in Pachulia for next to nothing. The big man is on a very reasonable 1 year/$5.2 million deal, and averaged a solid 8.3 points and 6.8 rebounds per game last season in Milwaukee. The Turk figures to have as good a shot as anyone to start next to franchise-star PF Dirk Nowitzki this upcoming season.
Grade: A
Best/Worst Draft Scenarios
(#21 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Drafting PG/SG Jerian Grant (Notre Dame, Senior)
With star PG Rajon Rondo hitting free agency and highly unlikely to return, the Mavericks at the very least need to add some depth at the point, and would likely need an instant contributor considering that franchise player PF Dirk Nowitzki is turning 37 years old. That would be Jerian Grant, perhaps the most NBA-ready player in the draft. He would fit perfectly in Dallas’ high-powered offense that features plenty of scorers, as Grant has excellent facilitating, vision, and passing abilities, averaging 6.7 assists per game this past season at Notre Dame. He lacks a lethal jumper, yet still averaged 1.6 triples per game in his four seasons with very high shooting percentages. Most of his scoring comes by slashing to the basket, where his athleticism and ability to draw contact and live at the free-throw line is second to none in this class. Perhaps his most important quality is his defense, where his tremendous length and size for his position make him a fantastic defender, as he averaged 1.9 steals per game over his final two collegiate years. Also a crafty ball-handler that rarely turns the ball over, Grant would be an absolute steal for Dallas at #21 while filling a need in the process.
Worst Case Scenario: Point Guards get a lot of love
Other than Houston, there’s really no team besides these two Texas teams that has an obvious need for a point guard. This could lead to Dallas nabbing Grant, the second-best point guard in the draft besides Cameron Payne (other than consensus top 5 selections D’Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay, of course). However, the key word there is obvious. That doesn’t mean that the teams drafting ahead of Dallas won’t take a point guard, forcing the Mavericks to start eating into their fallback stash consisting of PG/SG Delon Wright and PG Tyus Jones. Even worse, these teams could start eating into that floor general stash themselves if Payne and Grant are off the board early. It wouldn’t be all bad, however -- if teams start stacking up on point guards, then that leaves Dallas in prime position to get a steal at #21 on draft night at another position, if you follow. Really, the worse case scenario is getting either Wright or Jones forced upon them (always better to have a choice than only one being available) and nobody slides all the way to #21. Unfortunately for them, there are just enough teams picking ahead of the Mavericks to make that happen.
Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams
Dallas is probably the weakest and least likely to go all the way of the teams that are considered to be in contention for the title, but that certainly doesn’t mean they can’t, for that’s what everyone said about their 2011 title team. If stars PF Dirk Nowitzki and C Tyson Chandler continue to form a nice offense-defense combo inside, while PF/C Amare Stoudemire provides depth and all stay healthy, the Mavericks could boast one of the most formidable frontcourts in basketball. The main issue is somehow fitting star PG Rajon Rondo into the system, as he really has not been able to adjust since he was acquired via trade earlier in the year. If he can adapt, Rondo could be the ultimate distributor of a high-octane offense, while also wreaking havoc on defense. SG Monta Ellis and SF Chandler Parsons must light it up from the perimeter, and at least pass as serviceable defenders as well. However, the second large glaring issue is Dallas’ bench, which has not performed well thus far. If that changes and everything else goes according to plan, it's unlikely that there’s any team that can stop Nowitzki from capturing his second title.
Draft Targets
Pick #22: Christian Wood, Power Forward, UNLV
UNLV didn’t make the tournament, but that shouldn’t stop a talent like Wood from going in the first round. He’s averaging 15.7 points, 10 rebounds, and 2.7 blocks per game while making half of his shots – absolutely dominant numbers. Able to face up and put the ball on the floor as well as being very athletic for someone 6’11”, Wood is also averaging almost a three per game. Considering the age and injury concerns of PF Dirk Nowitzki, C Tyson Chandler, and PF/C Amar’e Stoudemire, adding a young body into the mix makes plenty of sense for the Mavericks.
Season Predictions
Regular Season: After acquiring pass-happy PG Rajon Rondo early on in the season, the Mavericks were expected to be instant title contenders, featuring arguably the most complete starting lineup in basketball. There’s Rondo, the offensively talented wing SG Monta Ellis and SF Chandler Parsons, franchise star PF Dirk Nowitzki, and defensive anchor C Tyson Chandler. However, Rondo hasn’t fit in so well with Dallas, even fighting with Head Coach Rick Carlisle as of late. In addition, the Mavericks lack depth behind their talented starting five. It hasn’t been too bad, however, as they’re still on pace to win 53 games and have studs on both sides of the ball, but the brutality of the Western Conference and the Southwest Division in particular lowers them to a six seed.
Projected Record: 52-28
Playoffs Round One
Houston Rockets (#3) vs. Dallas Mavericks (#6)
Despite the talent in their starting lineup and collective playoff experience, there are two things going against Dallas in the playoffs: depth and team chemistry. Despite the signing of PF/C Amare Stoudemire, this team still doesn’t have a rim protector behind Chandler, an even more glaring issue when you consider that he’s currently injured. Wing depth is also a problem, as is just the second unit in general, with no real leader in it. Rondo’s inability to adapt since getting traded from Boston and fight with Carlisle point to obvious team chemistry issues as well, absolutely critical for winning in the playoffs. The Rockets have none of these issues, as well as being a star point guard away from a starting five more complete than the Mavericks, featuring MVP-frontrunner superstar SG James Harden as well as superstar C Dwight Howard. Forwads Trevor Ariza and Josh Smith are excellent defenders as well, and we all know how pesky PG Patrick Beverley can be on that side of the ball. Also, when your second-unit lineup is as follows: PG Pablo Prigioni, SG K.J McDaniels, SF/SG Corey Brewer, PF Terrence Jones, PF/C Donatas Motiejunas and still spare SG/PG Jason Terry and PF Kostas Papanikolaou, you’ve got mad depth. The Rockets look like an elite title contender, much less a squad that can take down a team with depth and chemistry issues in the first round.
Series Prediction: Houston wins 4-2
One Trade That Every Team Should Do
Mavericks get: SG Randy Foye
Nuggets get: PG Raymond Felton, 2015 second-rounder
Finances: The finances are good for Dallas here, as Foye is on a very reasonable $3 million deal, with a $3.1 million team option for next season that any team would be likely to take. In addition, Felton is due $8.9 million over the next two years, pricey numbers for a guy that has off the court issues and isn’t even producing when he’s on the court. This is precious cap space for Dallas as they look to contend for a title, and not so much for Denver as they look to stockpile draft picks and rebuild. That’s why this trde makes sense, and that’s also why the draft pick is there.
The Fit: When your starting five is PG Rajon Rondo, SG Monta Ellis, SF Chandler Parsons, PF Dirk Nowitzki, and C Tyson Chandler, the only place you can look to for roster tune-ups is your bench. That’s exactly what Dallas has done, as they have solid bench players at both the point guard and small forward spots, and the recently bought out PF/C Amare Stoudemire seems likely to sign with Dallas. However, the shooting guard position behind Ellis has not yet been addressed, and that’s exactly what Foye can offer. He’s not going to shut anybody down or light up the scoreboards, but he can space the floor for the other guys, averaging 1 three a game, which would be crucial to Dallas’ backcourt depth. Foye could be the missing link for Nowitzki’s second title.
Why the other team does it: As Denver looks to tear down their roster of veterans and grab some future draft picks in return, dealing away Foye makes perfect sense here. Taking on Felton’s contract is not an issue, as Denver has plentiful cap space next offseason and doesn’t figure to try to spend it, anyways. The second-rounder will simply be put towards their rebuilding efforts, and GM Tim Connelly will check Foye off of the many veterans to be dealt away from Mile-High City in exchange for future assets in advance of the deadline.
State of the Franchise
Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $33.4 million
Background: In a flurry of moves over the last few years, the Dallas Mavericks have built a very impressive starting five around all-time great PF Dirk Nowitzki, despite striking out on countless big names in free agency. First it was the signing of unwanted SG Monta Ellis on an extremely reasonable 3 year/$27 million deal. After a first round exit with too much of the scoring load placed on Ellis and Nowitzki, Dirk decided to take a major pay cut, signing 3 year/$25 million deal with Dallas, despite rumors of 4 year/$88 million offers from Houston and LA. This allowed the Mavericks to give SF Chandler Parsons a necessary overpay, to the tune of 3 years/$45 million. Then the Mavericks dealt PG Jose Calderon and a couple of prospects and second round picks in a deal that brought defensive anchor C Tyson Chandler back to Dallas. The center played a major role in the Mavericks’ championship season in 2011, where Nowitzki was named Finals MVP. The only position where they did not have a star, or at least, a quality starting player, was PG. This problem was quickly solved just a couple of months into this season, as the Mavericks traded away a couple of picks and several role players to the Boston Celtics in a deal involving pass-first PG Rajon Rondo. The starting five was complete, but the draft picks and role players were not.
Current Financial State: Both Chandler’s and Rondo’s contracts expire at the end of this year, and assuming they want to re-sign, most of that $29 million will go towards ensuring these two defensive studs stick around. Rondo’s current $13 million seems fair, although he could command a million or two more per year over three or maybe four years. Chandler, on the other hand, is making $14.6 million a year, and for a guy who barely scores in the double digits, he’s due for a pay cut. Something to the tune of a two or three year contract with $11 or $12 million per year would make sense. Monta Ellis has a player option for $9 million that he will likely take, and even if he doesn’t, Dallas could always give him a longer-term contract for about the same value. So it seems likely that keeping Rondo and Tyson around takes $26 million out of that $33.4 million the Mavericks have before they hit the luxury tax. However, outspoken owner Mark Cuban will probably be more than willing to dive into the luxury tax for the better of the team.
Targets: As mentioned above, the main goals for Dallas in free agency are to re-sign Rondo and Chandler, as well to as bolster their bench in order to aid their playoff hopes. After trading PF/C Brandan Wright to the Boston Celtics as part of the deal for Rondo, the Mavericks lack a big man off the bench who can relieve the aging Dirk and Chandler of minutes and protect the rim as well as Wright has done. Fortunately for Dallas, Wright is on the last year of his contract and becomes a free agent this summer. He can be acquired for something like a 2 year/$10 million deal. Wright is perfect for Dallas because he already knows the system and plays well in it, too. Before getting Rondo, Dallas was having a historically great year on the offensive side of the ball. However, on the other side, they were below average. Although they improved their defense by adding Rondo, they still have two below average defenders on the wings in Ellis and Parsons. They can plug this hole by signing SG/SF Iman Shumpert (CLE), a defensive specialist. Shumpert, however, is extremely offensively challenged, and shouldn’t be handed a contract worth over $5-6 million annually over 2 or 3 years, even though he is restricted to Cleveland. Lastly, Dallas needs a point guard who can score off the bench to lead the second unit and make up for Rondo's lack of scoring. PG Nate Robinson fits this role and could be signed to a 2 year/$4 million deal, as he’s actually a free agent who the Mavericks can sign right now. His ability to score off the bench at PG could be the final piece in the Mavericks’ quest for the championship.
The Fit: Wright fits perfectly for Dallas because he has played for them before and is the type of big man they need off the bench. He can protect the rim and is excellent in their pick and roll. Before being traded to Boston, he was averaging above 70% shooting from the field. Shumpert is another beautiful fit for Dallas because he and Chandler were teammates in New York a couple of years back. He is the defensive stopper they need on the wing to make up for Ellis and Parsons' struggles on that side of the ball. Nate Robinson would mesh well in Dallas because he can score, which helps to make up for Rondo's deficiency in that department. If Dallas can maintain their starting 5 and repair their bench this offseason, they will be in good shape to win the title.
Current seeding: 8th
Projected seeding: 8th
Dallas is currently locked in a tight battle with Portland, Houston, and Utah for the last playoff spot out West. But given their relatively soft remaining schedule, it seems as if Dirk and Co. will be able to stick around come April. They deserve it, too: after the DeAndre Jordan (C, LAC) debacle, the front office moved quickly to salvage their frontcourt around PF Dirk Nowitzki, adding C Zaza Pachulia and PF David Lee among others. The team also brought in SG Wesley Matthews and PG Deron Williams to start in their backcourt, and extended key backup PG/SG J.J Barea. With SF Chandler Parsons and Matthews at full health, and every member of the team, from Nowitzki down, firing on all cylinders, you’re looking at a playoff team.
First round: Golden State Warriors (1)
But you’re not looking at a second-round team, unless you’re looking at the Warriors. The only way a team would have a chance against Golden State is if they were to slow down the superstar backcourt of PG Stephen Curry and SG/SF Klay Thompson, and Dallas doesn’t even appear to have any quality perimeter defenders at all. That alone means Golden State will be averaging 100+ points per game in this series, and the fact that PF/SF Draymond Green, probably the best defender in the league, can guard either of Dallas’ top two scorers -- Parsons or Nowitzki -- means that the Mavs will have a tough time on offense too. So close, yet so very, very, very far away.
Prediction: Golden State wins, 4-0
Power Rankings
Overall rank: 18th
Tier: Playoff Hopefuls
Projected Seeding: 10th in West
Poor Mavericks. After star C DeAndre Jordan gave Dallas his word that he would sign with them, the team let starting C Tyson Chandler walk in free agency, only to see Jordan have a sudden change of heart and re-sign with the Clippers. The Mavs also let PG Rajon Rondo and SG Monta Ellis go during this saga, partially in order to open up cap space for DeAndre. To Dallas’ credit, however, they replaced Rondo and Ellis by bringin in the bought-out PG Deron Williams and SG/SF Wesley Matthews, respectively, which is practically an even swap in the backcourt. They also did excellent at center considering the circumstances, acquiring Zaza Pachulia and also signing Javale McGee and Samuel Dalembert. The Mavericks also have a pair of offensive stars in SF Chandler Parsons and PF Dirk Nowitzki, to round out a decent starting five. However, the bench is lacking despite some solid offensive firepower, and Nowitzki is really getting up there in years (37). With Dallas playing in the tough Southwest Division and an even tougher Western Conference, it seems likely that they’ll fall just short of the playoffs after a hard-fought battle for the #8 seed in the Wild West.
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Milwaukee Bucks Trade Grade
Mavericks get: C/PF Zaza Pachulia
Bucks get: Second-round pick (from Dallas)
I love everything about this deal for Dallas. They were spurned badly by superstar C DeAndre Jordan’s sudden change of heart in free agency. So badly, in fact, that they let starting C Tyson Chandler walk away due to the assumption that they would land Jordan. After these unfortunate series of events, the Mavericks desperately a quality center, and got one in Pachulia for next to nothing. The big man is on a very reasonable 1 year/$5.2 million deal, and averaged a solid 8.3 points and 6.8 rebounds per game last season in Milwaukee. The Turk figures to have as good a shot as anyone to start next to franchise-star PF Dirk Nowitzki this upcoming season.
Grade: A
Best/Worst Draft Scenarios
(#21 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Drafting PG/SG Jerian Grant (Notre Dame, Senior)
With star PG Rajon Rondo hitting free agency and highly unlikely to return, the Mavericks at the very least need to add some depth at the point, and would likely need an instant contributor considering that franchise player PF Dirk Nowitzki is turning 37 years old. That would be Jerian Grant, perhaps the most NBA-ready player in the draft. He would fit perfectly in Dallas’ high-powered offense that features plenty of scorers, as Grant has excellent facilitating, vision, and passing abilities, averaging 6.7 assists per game this past season at Notre Dame. He lacks a lethal jumper, yet still averaged 1.6 triples per game in his four seasons with very high shooting percentages. Most of his scoring comes by slashing to the basket, where his athleticism and ability to draw contact and live at the free-throw line is second to none in this class. Perhaps his most important quality is his defense, where his tremendous length and size for his position make him a fantastic defender, as he averaged 1.9 steals per game over his final two collegiate years. Also a crafty ball-handler that rarely turns the ball over, Grant would be an absolute steal for Dallas at #21 while filling a need in the process.
Worst Case Scenario: Point Guards get a lot of love
Other than Houston, there’s really no team besides these two Texas teams that has an obvious need for a point guard. This could lead to Dallas nabbing Grant, the second-best point guard in the draft besides Cameron Payne (other than consensus top 5 selections D’Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay, of course). However, the key word there is obvious. That doesn’t mean that the teams drafting ahead of Dallas won’t take a point guard, forcing the Mavericks to start eating into their fallback stash consisting of PG/SG Delon Wright and PG Tyus Jones. Even worse, these teams could start eating into that floor general stash themselves if Payne and Grant are off the board early. It wouldn’t be all bad, however -- if teams start stacking up on point guards, then that leaves Dallas in prime position to get a steal at #21 on draft night at another position, if you follow. Really, the worse case scenario is getting either Wright or Jones forced upon them (always better to have a choice than only one being available) and nobody slides all the way to #21. Unfortunately for them, there are just enough teams picking ahead of the Mavericks to make that happen.
Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams
Dallas is probably the weakest and least likely to go all the way of the teams that are considered to be in contention for the title, but that certainly doesn’t mean they can’t, for that’s what everyone said about their 2011 title team. If stars PF Dirk Nowitzki and C Tyson Chandler continue to form a nice offense-defense combo inside, while PF/C Amare Stoudemire provides depth and all stay healthy, the Mavericks could boast one of the most formidable frontcourts in basketball. The main issue is somehow fitting star PG Rajon Rondo into the system, as he really has not been able to adjust since he was acquired via trade earlier in the year. If he can adapt, Rondo could be the ultimate distributor of a high-octane offense, while also wreaking havoc on defense. SG Monta Ellis and SF Chandler Parsons must light it up from the perimeter, and at least pass as serviceable defenders as well. However, the second large glaring issue is Dallas’ bench, which has not performed well thus far. If that changes and everything else goes according to plan, it's unlikely that there’s any team that can stop Nowitzki from capturing his second title.
Draft Targets
Pick #22: Christian Wood, Power Forward, UNLV
UNLV didn’t make the tournament, but that shouldn’t stop a talent like Wood from going in the first round. He’s averaging 15.7 points, 10 rebounds, and 2.7 blocks per game while making half of his shots – absolutely dominant numbers. Able to face up and put the ball on the floor as well as being very athletic for someone 6’11”, Wood is also averaging almost a three per game. Considering the age and injury concerns of PF Dirk Nowitzki, C Tyson Chandler, and PF/C Amar’e Stoudemire, adding a young body into the mix makes plenty of sense for the Mavericks.
Season Predictions
Regular Season: After acquiring pass-happy PG Rajon Rondo early on in the season, the Mavericks were expected to be instant title contenders, featuring arguably the most complete starting lineup in basketball. There’s Rondo, the offensively talented wing SG Monta Ellis and SF Chandler Parsons, franchise star PF Dirk Nowitzki, and defensive anchor C Tyson Chandler. However, Rondo hasn’t fit in so well with Dallas, even fighting with Head Coach Rick Carlisle as of late. In addition, the Mavericks lack depth behind their talented starting five. It hasn’t been too bad, however, as they’re still on pace to win 53 games and have studs on both sides of the ball, but the brutality of the Western Conference and the Southwest Division in particular lowers them to a six seed.
Projected Record: 52-28
Playoffs Round One
Houston Rockets (#3) vs. Dallas Mavericks (#6)
Despite the talent in their starting lineup and collective playoff experience, there are two things going against Dallas in the playoffs: depth and team chemistry. Despite the signing of PF/C Amare Stoudemire, this team still doesn’t have a rim protector behind Chandler, an even more glaring issue when you consider that he’s currently injured. Wing depth is also a problem, as is just the second unit in general, with no real leader in it. Rondo’s inability to adapt since getting traded from Boston and fight with Carlisle point to obvious team chemistry issues as well, absolutely critical for winning in the playoffs. The Rockets have none of these issues, as well as being a star point guard away from a starting five more complete than the Mavericks, featuring MVP-frontrunner superstar SG James Harden as well as superstar C Dwight Howard. Forwads Trevor Ariza and Josh Smith are excellent defenders as well, and we all know how pesky PG Patrick Beverley can be on that side of the ball. Also, when your second-unit lineup is as follows: PG Pablo Prigioni, SG K.J McDaniels, SF/SG Corey Brewer, PF Terrence Jones, PF/C Donatas Motiejunas and still spare SG/PG Jason Terry and PF Kostas Papanikolaou, you’ve got mad depth. The Rockets look like an elite title contender, much less a squad that can take down a team with depth and chemistry issues in the first round.
Series Prediction: Houston wins 4-2
One Trade That Every Team Should Do
Mavericks get: SG Randy Foye
Nuggets get: PG Raymond Felton, 2015 second-rounder
Finances: The finances are good for Dallas here, as Foye is on a very reasonable $3 million deal, with a $3.1 million team option for next season that any team would be likely to take. In addition, Felton is due $8.9 million over the next two years, pricey numbers for a guy that has off the court issues and isn’t even producing when he’s on the court. This is precious cap space for Dallas as they look to contend for a title, and not so much for Denver as they look to stockpile draft picks and rebuild. That’s why this trde makes sense, and that’s also why the draft pick is there.
The Fit: When your starting five is PG Rajon Rondo, SG Monta Ellis, SF Chandler Parsons, PF Dirk Nowitzki, and C Tyson Chandler, the only place you can look to for roster tune-ups is your bench. That’s exactly what Dallas has done, as they have solid bench players at both the point guard and small forward spots, and the recently bought out PF/C Amare Stoudemire seems likely to sign with Dallas. However, the shooting guard position behind Ellis has not yet been addressed, and that’s exactly what Foye can offer. He’s not going to shut anybody down or light up the scoreboards, but he can space the floor for the other guys, averaging 1 three a game, which would be crucial to Dallas’ backcourt depth. Foye could be the missing link for Nowitzki’s second title.
Why the other team does it: As Denver looks to tear down their roster of veterans and grab some future draft picks in return, dealing away Foye makes perfect sense here. Taking on Felton’s contract is not an issue, as Denver has plentiful cap space next offseason and doesn’t figure to try to spend it, anyways. The second-rounder will simply be put towards their rebuilding efforts, and GM Tim Connelly will check Foye off of the many veterans to be dealt away from Mile-High City in exchange for future assets in advance of the deadline.
State of the Franchise
Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $33.4 million
Background: In a flurry of moves over the last few years, the Dallas Mavericks have built a very impressive starting five around all-time great PF Dirk Nowitzki, despite striking out on countless big names in free agency. First it was the signing of unwanted SG Monta Ellis on an extremely reasonable 3 year/$27 million deal. After a first round exit with too much of the scoring load placed on Ellis and Nowitzki, Dirk decided to take a major pay cut, signing 3 year/$25 million deal with Dallas, despite rumors of 4 year/$88 million offers from Houston and LA. This allowed the Mavericks to give SF Chandler Parsons a necessary overpay, to the tune of 3 years/$45 million. Then the Mavericks dealt PG Jose Calderon and a couple of prospects and second round picks in a deal that brought defensive anchor C Tyson Chandler back to Dallas. The center played a major role in the Mavericks’ championship season in 2011, where Nowitzki was named Finals MVP. The only position where they did not have a star, or at least, a quality starting player, was PG. This problem was quickly solved just a couple of months into this season, as the Mavericks traded away a couple of picks and several role players to the Boston Celtics in a deal involving pass-first PG Rajon Rondo. The starting five was complete, but the draft picks and role players were not.
Current Financial State: Both Chandler’s and Rondo’s contracts expire at the end of this year, and assuming they want to re-sign, most of that $29 million will go towards ensuring these two defensive studs stick around. Rondo’s current $13 million seems fair, although he could command a million or two more per year over three or maybe four years. Chandler, on the other hand, is making $14.6 million a year, and for a guy who barely scores in the double digits, he’s due for a pay cut. Something to the tune of a two or three year contract with $11 or $12 million per year would make sense. Monta Ellis has a player option for $9 million that he will likely take, and even if he doesn’t, Dallas could always give him a longer-term contract for about the same value. So it seems likely that keeping Rondo and Tyson around takes $26 million out of that $33.4 million the Mavericks have before they hit the luxury tax. However, outspoken owner Mark Cuban will probably be more than willing to dive into the luxury tax for the better of the team.
Targets: As mentioned above, the main goals for Dallas in free agency are to re-sign Rondo and Chandler, as well to as bolster their bench in order to aid their playoff hopes. After trading PF/C Brandan Wright to the Boston Celtics as part of the deal for Rondo, the Mavericks lack a big man off the bench who can relieve the aging Dirk and Chandler of minutes and protect the rim as well as Wright has done. Fortunately for Dallas, Wright is on the last year of his contract and becomes a free agent this summer. He can be acquired for something like a 2 year/$10 million deal. Wright is perfect for Dallas because he already knows the system and plays well in it, too. Before getting Rondo, Dallas was having a historically great year on the offensive side of the ball. However, on the other side, they were below average. Although they improved their defense by adding Rondo, they still have two below average defenders on the wings in Ellis and Parsons. They can plug this hole by signing SG/SF Iman Shumpert (CLE), a defensive specialist. Shumpert, however, is extremely offensively challenged, and shouldn’t be handed a contract worth over $5-6 million annually over 2 or 3 years, even though he is restricted to Cleveland. Lastly, Dallas needs a point guard who can score off the bench to lead the second unit and make up for Rondo's lack of scoring. PG Nate Robinson fits this role and could be signed to a 2 year/$4 million deal, as he’s actually a free agent who the Mavericks can sign right now. His ability to score off the bench at PG could be the final piece in the Mavericks’ quest for the championship.
The Fit: Wright fits perfectly for Dallas because he has played for them before and is the type of big man they need off the bench. He can protect the rim and is excellent in their pick and roll. Before being traded to Boston, he was averaging above 70% shooting from the field. Shumpert is another beautiful fit for Dallas because he and Chandler were teammates in New York a couple of years back. He is the defensive stopper they need on the wing to make up for Ellis and Parsons' struggles on that side of the ball. Nate Robinson would mesh well in Dallas because he can score, which helps to make up for Rondo's deficiency in that department. If Dallas can maintain their starting 5 and repair their bench this offseason, they will be in good shape to win the title.
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