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charlotte hornets

Season Predictions 2016

Current seeding: 6th
Projected seeding: 5th
 
With the return of C Al Jefferson from injury and the simultaneous acusition of SG Courtney Lee, the Hornets are arguably the 3rd best team in the East, and accordingly have been on a tear as of late. The reason why having these two players active is so important is that Jefferson is a dominant low-post presence, meaning he will need shooters, like Lee, to spread the floor in order to give him space to operate. But we know that Charlotte’s offense really starts and ends with the electric PG Kemba Walker, who is having a career year with 21.4 points per game. The defense, among others, features the versatile SF/SG Nicolas Batum, and of course the defensive-minded head coach Steve Clifford. With everything clicking, I'm bumping Charlotte up a spot here.
 
1st round: Miami Heat (5)
 
This is an incredibly close matchup that could easily go either way. I’d imagine Charlotte attempting to win this one by out-shooting Miami, who is an average three-point team at best, using Walker as a facilitator and Jefferson to collapse the defense. This would give room for guys like Lee, SG Jeremy Lamb, and PF/C Frank Kaminsky to shoot, while still allowing the stars in Walker and Jefferson to make magic if necessary. The only problem is that this “drive, draw, dish” method gets really tough when you’re going against tough interior defense, and Miami C Hassan Whiteside is averaging 4 blocks per game. The reason why things can get tough for the Hornets offense under this approach is that if Walker were to drive, say, and use his quickness to get by Heat PG Goran Dragic, he’d have to meet Whiteside at the rim every time -- not a good gameplan by any means. If they want to play through Jefferson, that would be even worse, as he would be the player that is directly guarded by Whiteside. If Whiteside can do a lot to handle Walker and Jefferson, then Miami won’t need to bring extra defenders to them, which would be leaving shooters open, if you follow. Am I giving the Heat center too much credit? You could argue that, but the Heat have PF Chris Bosh and other solid interior defenders as well. If Miami’s interior defense holds up, and SG Dwyane Wade and others lead the way on offense, I think it will be difficult for Charlotte to outscore their counterparts, “third best team in the East [behind just Cleveland and Toronto]” or not.

Prediction: Miami wins, 4-2

Trade Grades

Click here for link to Memphis Grizzlies Trade Grades
Click here for link to Miami Heat Trade Grades


Grizzlies get: C/PF Chris Andersen, SG/SF P.J Hairston, 2 second-round picks (via Miami), 2 second-round picks (via Charlotte)
Heat get: PG Brian Roberts
Hornets get: SG Courtney Lee

With SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist out for the season, the Hornets felt it necessary to fortify their wing rotation. Despite the significant depth already in place at shooting guard, Charlotte still got good value here; this is in part due to PG's Kemba Walker and Jeremy Lin presence making Roberts an expendable piece. Roberts was putting up 4.8 points in 11 minutes per game, which translates to an impressive 15.7 points per 36 minutes, meaning the Dayton product is more fit to be a legitimate backup point guard rather than a benchwarmer, like he was in Charlotte. They did well to squeeze maximum value out of him.

Lee is just a great type of player to have on your team, period. He plays superb defense, and is averaging 10 points on 37% shooting from three; also, according to advanced statistics, is 25th in the league in real scoring efficiency. With Charlotte clinging to the last playoff spot at 27-26, they had the right idea to upgrade from Hairston to Lee with this trade.

But at the same time, the argument could be made that Lee is somewhat redundant with SG's Troy Daniels and Jeremy Lamb, and is really just a slightly upgraded version of Hairston, who is still only 23 and a former first-rounder. As the Hornets also gave up two second-rounders in this deal, I'm going to have to split the pros and cons of the trade.


Grade: B

Power Rankings​
​

Overall rank: 15th
Tier: Playoff Hopefuls
Projected Seeding: 8th in East

Building off of the success of year one of the PG Kemba Walker/C Al Jefferson duo, the Hornets added SG Lance Stephenson to the fold, in an effort to make a playoff push in year two of Walker/Jefferson. We all know that experiment was an awful disaster, but Michael Jordan and Co. finally look like they have the right pieces for a potential playoff run in year 3 of their star duo. Stephenson is long gone (phew) and was replaced by SF/SG Nicolas Batum on the wing, a do-it-all player who particularly excels on the defensive end – a perfect complimentary piece to offensive stars like Walker and Jefferson. SG Jeremy Lamb was brought in from Oklahoma City for next-to-nothing, and not only is he a knockdown three-point shooter, but he already has great chemistry with Walker from their days at UConn where they won a National Championship together. SF Michael-Kidd Gilchrist will probably start somewhere, even if it means shuffling around with Batum’s position, as Kidd-Gilchrist is a defensive ace with a rapidly growing all-around game, almost just like Batum. Rookie PF/C Frank Kaminsky has as good of a shot as anyone (no pun intended) to start next to Jefferson at power forward, as Kaminsky is a fantastic shooter, which is exactly what Jefferson needs next to him in order to operate in the post. This team just has it all: playmaking (Walker), shooting (Lamb, Batum, Kaminsky), defense (Batum, Kidd-Gilchrist), and offense (Walker, Jefferson). With several key bench players as well, such as PG Jeremy Lin, PF/C Cody Zeller, and C/PF Spencer Hawes, it would be surprising if we found out that the Charlotte front office messed it up this time as well.​

Trade Grades

Click here for the Oklahoma City Thunder Trade Grades

Charlotte gave up: SF Matt Barnes, 2016 second-rounder
Charlotte got: SG Jeremy Lamb

Excellent move by the Hornets to partially cover up their glaring hole at shooting guard, while giving up next to nothing in exchange. PG/SG Luke Ridnour was actually in between here, as Barnes was dealt to the Grizzlies in exchange for the combo-guard (oddly, the swap occurred immediately after the Grizzlies had acquired Ridnour from the Magic). Then, the Hornets instantly turned around and traded Ridnour to the Thunder in the deal that’s bringing Lamb to Charlotte, if you follow. Since the in-between stuff doesn’t really matter from the Hornets’ perspective, I’ll just be grading who they gave up in the Ridnour-frenzy (Barnes and the second-rounder), and who they got (Lamb).

Barnes was acquired from the Clippers just a few days prior to this deal in the Lance Stephenson trade, and the 35 year old was never supposed to stick long in Charlotte. He’s a solid role player, averaging 10 points and 4 rebounds per game this past season, which is actually one of the better ones of his career. Barnes’ main attributes are his toughness, solid ability to stretch the floor as a shooter, and his defensive tenacity. With SF’s Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and now Nicolas Batum on Charlotte’s depth chart, Barnes was fairly expendable and the Hornets would never have really had a role for the vet. He’s better off in Memphis, where his skillset and physicality will fit right in. Not a big loss for Charlotte.

Second-rounders are really the penny stock of the NBA, having little value and generally just being throw-ins on deals. Sure, occasionally you’ll find a solid rotational piece, or even a starter, or a once-in-a-decade Manu Ginobili floating in round #2, but generally the picks never really pan out. They have little actual value other than merely being General Manager’s currency. For a Hornets team that is clearly looking to contend sooner rather than later, tossing in a second-round draft pick is really no big deal.

Jeremy Lamb is the ultimate prize of this deal. Picked 12th overall just three years ago, the Thunder were never able to carve out a role for the knockdown shooter, but that’s also partially on him. Lamb has been somewhat of a disappointment, as he averaged just 6.3 points per game and 0.8 threes on an average 34.2% shooting from downtown in just 13.5 minutes, and was injured for half the year. Perhaps most alarming is his lack of development, as he was slightly better across the board in 2014 than in this past season; this could cap his upside. However, this was just the perfect opportunity to buy-low on the youngster. Lamb is still an excellent three-point shooter and actually won a title at UCONN with Charlotte’s PG Kemba Walker. He has proven to be an excellent fit next to Walker before, and should be able to do the same at the next level.

All in all, this was a low-risk, high-reward trade for Charlotte: they gave up rather worthless assets in exchange for a young prospect with upside. Even if Lamb never really pans out, the worst he can be is a backup that can knock down threes. This plugs a hole for the Hornets, as they had a glaring deficiency at shooting guard after dealing away their best two players at that position (Gerald Henderson and Lance Stephenson). Charlotte also needed more three-point shooting, which is what they got in Lamb. They will probably need to do a thing or two at the two-guard spot via free agency anyways, but this is still a nice pickup at little to no cost.

Grade: A-

Best/Worst Draft Scenarios


(#9 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Drafting SG/SF Mario Hezonja (Spain, 20 years old)

Much like quite a few teams above them, the Hornets are in dire need of outside shooting, and shooting guards in particular, especially after trading star SG Lance Stephenson. Because of this, it is unlikely that Hezonja (perhaps best shooter in the draft) falls all the way to number nine. However, this is the ideal scenario -- not the most likely one. The Horneets cannot trust SG/SF Gerald Henderson to be a 36-minute starter, oso adding quality depth behind him is a must. If not Hezonja, the Hornets will likely look to SF Stanley Johnson in the draft, and will try to address the need for premier shooting at the two-guard via free agency (perhaps SG/SF Danny Green). 

Worst Case Scenario: C Willie Cauley-Stein takes a draft-day slide

Let me get this straight: Cauley-Stein is absolutely a top-10 prospect in the draft, if not top 5. However, unless another team trades up, every team drafting #3 through #8 does not need a center (with the exception of the Knicks at number four). This could cause a draft-day slide for Cauley-Stein, which presents an issue for Charlotte: they, like most other teams above them, do not need a center: C Al Jefferson mans that position, although it’s not impossible to see him sliding to power forward should the Hornets take Cauley-Stein. Because of this, it is highly possible that the wing players that the Hornets are targeting (SG/SF Mario Hezonja, SF Justise Winslow, SF Stanley Johnson) are all off the board by the time they’re on the clock. This would cause Charlotte to do a minor reach (or trade the pick to a team wanting Cauley-Stein) on SG Devin Booker, although he wouldn’t be a bad fit for the Hornets..

 
Draft Targets

Pick #15: Kelly Oubre Jr., Small Forward

The Hornets could use some more depth at pretty much every position, so taking the best guy available makes sense here. He’s a good athlete that can knock down threes and slash to the basket as well, while also chipping in 5 rebounds a game. Oubre is bursting with upside, and can also defend with the best of them. A great all-around fit for the Hornets, and a steal to get someone of Oubre’s caliber outside the lottery.

Season Predictions

Regular Season: The Hornets, after making the playoffs last year, appeared to improve by bringing in SG Lance Stephenson from the Pacers in free agency. However, Stephenson has been a major disappointment, as have others, and stars PG Kemba Walker and C Al Jefferson have both missed significant time with injuries. This has led Charlotte to be on the outside and looking in regarding the playoff picture, even in the current joke of an Eastern Conference, as they are well under .500. That doesn’t figure to change anytime soon, as no trends have pointed towards the Hornets turning things around. Maybe next year, Charlotte.

Projected Record: 34-48, tied for 11th in East


One Trade That Every Team Should Do

Charlotte gets: SG Joe Johnson
Brooklyn gets: SG Lance Stephenson, SG/SF Gerald Henderson, SF/PF Marvin Williams


Finances: This trade also has lots of financial motivations from both sides, as Johnson has a disastrous $48 million owed over the next 2 years. However, Stephenson, Williams, and Henderson are all overpaid in their own right, as they are due a combined $22 million annually over the next 2 years. Stephenson isn’t necessarily a bad contract, as his 3 year/$27 million deal with a team option on the third year that was signed this offseason was thought to be a steal, that is, until his extremely disappointing campaign this year. Packaging three bad contracts for one bad contract of about the same total value doesn’t really figure to change much for the Hornets’ finances, despite the large figures in this deal.

The Fit: Though overpaid and aging, Johnson is still one heck of a scorer, averaging 15.5 points and 1.5 threes per game, in addition to being one of the best closers and most clutch players basketball has to offer. He also chips in 4.5 rebounds and 4 assists a game. Losing Stephenson’s all-around play, Henderson’s small scoring punch and Williams’ unique combination of floor-spacing and adding a few rebounds hurts, but not a lot. Johnson can come in and, along with PG Kemba Walker and C Al Jefferson, carry the offense and hopefully the team as well into a playoff berth.

Why the other team does it: It’s been no secret that the Nets are aggressively shopping “The Overpaid Trio” featuring Johnson as well as PG Deron Williams and C Brook Lopez. Receiving smaller, more easily moveable, overpaid parts while not giving up any assets that would be used to get rid of them makes a ton of sense for a team that is hungry to clear cap space, with no intention of winning right now. Stephenson may actually not end up having such a bad contract after all, as maybe a change of scenery is all he needs. Even so, Brooklyn sheds a small amount of salary in this deal and puts themselves in a better place to do so again in the future.

Trade Grades

Timberwolves get: SG Gary Neal, 2nd round pick
Hornets get: PG Mo Williams, SF Troy Daniels

This is a nice deal for Charlotte. With PG Kemba Walker out for about another month, the Hornets simply could not rely on PG Brian Roberts and the disappointing SG Lance Stephenson for ball-handling duties if they had any hope of making the playoffs. Williams ranks in the top 15 amongst all players in assists with 6.4  per game, and 12 points and 1.5 threes don’t hurt either, neither does his 52 point outburst earlier this season. Williams will assume the starting point guard role for the duration of Walker’s injury, and will also fight for more minutes in the backcourt even when Walker returns. However, dealing away a three-point shooter in Neal, who is averaging 9.5 points and 1 three a game, just didn’t seem to make much sense, especially on a team devoid of perimeter threats. Neal would be of little use to the Timberwolves’ young squad, so it’s not as if President Flip Saunders wouldn’t pull the trigger if Neal wasn’t involved. He could have been necessary to even out Williams’ contract and make the finances of the deal work, but there had to be less-important players that could have been shipped to Minnesota in order to make this deal work, especially when you consider how important Neal was in stepping up during SG Lance Stephenson’s disappointing year. Still, it’s not as if Neal was a star, or even a starter, and it is possible that young SF Troy Daniels, acquired in this deal, can replace Neal as a perimeter threat. Averaging 0.7 threes in just 7.3 minutes per game, it will be interesting to see if Daniels can even come close to maintaining those per-minute stats if handed a larger role. Also, only giving up a second-round pick for a player of Williams’ caliber has to be considered a win.

Grade: B+

State of the Franchise

Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $12.1 million

Background: Well, Charlotte. After being the laughingstock of the NBA for quite a few years, the ex-Bobcats had supposedly turned things around. Michael Jordan’s team re-named themselves the Hornets, and brought in gifted SG Lance Stephenson on a seemingly very reasonable 3 year/$27 million deal, with a team option on the third year. Stephenson was added to a talented core that included PG Kemba Walker and C Al Jefferson, both on fairly reasonable contracts. Charlotte was fresh off a season in which they boasted the sixth best defense in the league, as well as a 43-39 record, good for seventh best in the East. However, this season has not worked out quite as planned. Their elite defense fell to the middle of the pack, and constant injuries as well as Stephenson’s disappointing performance have led Charlotte to be on the outside-looking-in on the playoffs, even in the weaker Eastern Conference. Now, the Hornets are shopping Stephenson, and who knows what route they will choose from here. Charlotte is sort of an odd case because they do have talent plus some financial flexibility as well as all of their draft picks, but nothing seems to be working for them right now. Only time will tell if this current roster can figure things out, or else Michael Jordan will have a tough decision on his hands.

Current Financial State: The Hornets’ finances aren’t too bad, but they could certainly be a lot better. Star C Al Jefferson has a reasonable $13.5 million player option next year, which he will likely accept. Role players SG/SF Gerald Henderson and SF/PF Marvin Williams will be owed a combined $13 million next year, which speaks towards some pretty poor decisions in the past. PG Kemba Walker’s 4 year/$48 million extension will kick in next year, which is perhaps a little pricey but nothing too disastrous. What has been disastrous, however, is newcomer Stephenson, as discussed above. The Hornets are aggressively trying to find a new home for the SG, but nothing has materialized thus far. However, the only contract guaranteed to be on the books at this moment for the 2016 season is Walker’s $12 million, which leads to the possibility that maybe Charlotte will try to go all-in for the loaded free agent class in 2016.

Targets: There were some rumblings about a three-team trade between Charlotte, Brooklyn, and Oklahoma City in which Stephenson would be sent to the Nets in his hometown, and C Brook Lopez would be shipped from Brooklyn to Oklahoma City. These talks ultimately ended when Nets GM Billy King deemed the trades to be not good enough for his team. But here’s one that he cannot refuse: Brooklyn sends Lopez to the Thunder and Kevin Garnett’s large expiring contract to Charlotte. In turn, Charlotte would ship Lance to Brooklyn and Jason Maxiell to Oklahoma City. Finally, the Thunder would send the expiring contracts of Kendrick Perkins and Nick Collison to Brooklyn, as well as young SG Jeremy Lamb to the Hornets. For the Thunder, this is exactly what they wanted. Parting ways with role players Perkins and Collison and replacing them with stud Brook Lopez in the frontcourt is a no-brainer, and the acquisition of Dion Waiters instantly makes Jeremy Lamb expendable. For Brooklyn and Billy King, this is one hard deal to turn down. Shedding Garnett and Lopez’s salaries is the biggest plus from this deal, and Collison and Perkins will come off the books this summer. Granted, Stephenson is a big question mark, but there is a lot of reward to go with his risk. Last but not least, the Hornets get a nice deal out of this one, too. Moving Lance already points to this being a good trade, but replacing him with intriguing young prospect Jeremy Lamb would be a fantastic move for Michael Jordan and his franchise. Garnett really does not have a role in the long-term view of the franchise, but his contract will come off the books next year, so that’s not an issue.

The Fit: Replacing Lance Stephenson at the two-guard, Lamb may have some big shoes to fill. While Lance did not mesh well with franchise PG Kemba Walker, Lamb has a chance to really shine alongside his former UConn teammate. Despite being a slight disappointment in his first couple seasons in the NBA, Lamb has shown flashes of talent when given the opportunity. When superstars Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant were injured for the first 15 games of the season, Lamb averaged 12.4 points in 26.3 minutes. Nothing that jumps off the page, until you consider that he was knocking down his threes at a ridiculous 44% clip. This would bring some much needed perimeter scoring to a team that lacks it, as well as reuniting a couple of college champions. This move makes plenty of sense for Charlotte as well as Oklahoma City; it is all up to Brooklyn and Billy King to pull the trigger for Lance Stephenson.

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