Season Predictions 2016
Current seeding: 4th
Projected seeding: 6th
The Hawks have been relatively solid and consistent over the course of the season, with no major injuries to their key players, and thus have only been thrown off-course by minor and quick slumps. But that’s almost exactly what the problem is: there’s nothing special about this team, nothing that’s changed for the better in the past couple of years. It’s almost like the same old, same old. Sure, C Al Horford, PF Paul Millsap, PG Jeff Teague, and the others are all having decent seasons, but they’re slight drop-offs from last year’s heroics and the team is also sans SF DeMarre Carroll. Still, Atlanta continues to excel defensively, even if it falters offensively, and is simply a hard team to beat on a given night. However, with Miami adding SG/SF Joe Johnson, Charlotte’s return of C Al Jefferson, and Boston’s ever-improving young cast, I had no choice but to lower this solid -- yet same -- Atlanta roster.
First round: Boston Celtics (3)
But the fact that this is the same team as last season’s, who made the Eastern Conference Finals, might not be such a bad thing come playoff time. It’s very hard to compare other teams to this unique, young and energetic Celtic squad, but playoff experience is playoff experience. The fact of the matter remains that Boston boasts almost zero key players that have ever made it past the first round, while obviously Atlanta have several players who have been there and done that. As the playoffs are a completely different atmosphere than the regular season, I almost always pick the more experienced side when in doubt, thus the upset call here.
Prediction: Atlanta wins, 4-3
Second round: Toronto Raptors (2)
With that being said, when you face a team that is simply more talented, experience only gets you so far. Against a PF Luis Scola-C Jonas Valanciunas frontcourt, it is clear that the Millsap-Horford pairing has the definite advantage -- rebounding, defending, scoring, you name it. But what the trouble will be for Atlanta, which is frankly the same type of trouble most teams have to deal with when facing Toronto, will be containing the electric backcourt duo of PG Kyle Lowry and SG/SF DeMar DeRozan, who are averaging a combined 45+ points per game this season. Teague is a solid defender and all-around player, but there is no way that he, or any other Hawk for that matter, will be able to match up well against the duo. Essentially what it comes down to is Lowry and DeRozan versus Millsap and Horford, and with Raptors like C Bismack Biyombo potentially able to limit Atlanta’s frontcourt, this series is looking pretty solid for Toronto.
Prediction: Toronto wins, 4-2
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Utah Jazz Trade Grades
Click here for link to Chicago Bulls Trade Grades
Hawks get: SG Kirk Hinrich
Jazz get: PG Shelvin Mack
Bulls get: SG Justin Holiday, second-rounder (via Utah)
Ummm... ok? It was beyond obvious that Atlanta was overloaded at point guard, with Mack, Jeff Teague, and the emerging Dennis Schroder, so trading Mack wasn't a bad idea. So what do the Hawks do to clear up a positional logjam at point guard? They add to an already pre-existing positional logjam at shooting guard! Seriously, I mean, Kyle Korver, Kent Bazemore, Thabo Sefolosha, and Tim Hardaway Jr. are already more than enough wing players. In addition, Hinrich isn't much of an upgrade over Mack as a player, as the two guards are averaging just 3.8 and 3.9 points per game, respectively. What was the point of this trade exactly?
Grade: B-
Power Rankings
Overall rank: 10th
Tier: Playoff Locks
Projected Seeding: 4th in East
The Hawks are one of the tougher teams to pinpoint heading into the 2015-16 season. On one hand, they finished with the second best record in the league last season, as well as the top record in the East and an Eastern Conference Finals appearance as well. They also have arguably the best team chemistry in the NBA, five All-Stars (counting their coach, Mike Budenholzer) and have kept relatively the same team since last year. On the other hand, however, they got embarrassed by the Cavaliers in a playoff sweep last year, the Hawks still boast no true superstar, the top of the Eastern Conference is improved, and Atlanta did lose ex-starting SF DeMarre Carroll to the Toronto Raptors in free agency this summer. The Hawks did add a quality backup big man in C/PF Tiago Splitter, something they needed, but SG Tim Hardaway Jr. was the chief reinforcement brought in to replace Carroll. In an improved East, you can’t help but drop them down a few spots and revoke their “Title Contender” status, although with All-Stars PG Jeff Teague, SG Kyle Korver, PF Paul Millsap, C Al Horford, and others, Atlanta will still be looking to make another playoff run.
Trade Grades
Click here for link to San Antonio Spurs Trade Grades
Hawks get: C/PF Tiago Splitter
Spurs get: rights to Georgios Printezis, top 55 protected 2017 second-round pick (a.k.a: nothing)
This trade is just purely logical from Atlanta’s point of view: if you could give up next to nothing in exchange for filling a need, why wouldn’t you? The Hawks had a lack of depth behind PF Paul Millsap and C/PF Al Horford up front, and a quality big man like Splitter is exactly what they needed. His 2 year/$16.75 million remaining on his contract is fair considering the rapidly rising salary cap, and Splitter also delivered a solid 8.2 points and 4.8 rebounds in just 19.8 minutes per game with the Spurs last season. The only doubt here is if they could’ve used the money from Splitter’s contract to keep SF DeMarre Carroll from Toronto, but since we don’t know whether or not that would’ve been the case and as Atlanta did a decent job replacing Carroll, we’ll give the Hawks a pass there.
Grade: B+
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Washington Wizards Trade Grade
Click here for link to New York Knicks Trade Grade
Gave up: #15 pick in draft (turned into SF Kelly Oubre Jr.)
Got: Two future second-rounders, SG Tim Hardaway Jr.
Though PG/SG Jerian Grant was in-between for the Hawks, I will just be grading who Atlanta gave up and what they got in return. SF Kelly Oubre probably shouldn’t have gone 15th overall, as he was more of a top-20 prospect than a top-15 one, but that doesn’t concern the Hawks. For a team that had the best record in the East just last season, the motive of acquiring two future second-rounders is questionable. Although there was a relatively steep drop-off in talent from #14 to #15, simply selecting Wisconsin’s SF Sam Dekker would’ve probably just made more sense here, as Hardaway Jr. is far from an optimal fit in Atlanta.
I liked the idea of trading down for the Hawks, as they clearly weren’t wowed by anyone available at #15, but two future second-rounders is not what this championship-caliber roster needs as they moved down to #19. Oubre Jr. is probably a long-term project, as his ability to contribute right away is minimal. However, he is still an excellent defender with solid shooting ability. He’s quick and athletic, which give him the potential he needs to become an excellent slasher, although he will need to improve his lackluster ball-handling skills for that. Oubre Jr. never really made sense for Atlanta anyways, but I really don’t like the package that they netted in exchange for him.
Tim Hardaway Jr. is of course the son of an all-time great, and after his impressive rookie campaign, it was looking like he’d follow in his father’s footsteps. He hit 1.6 threes on a blazing 36.2% on them, as part of his 10.8 points per game en route to being named to the All-Rookie First Team. However, he has shown a lack of improvement in year two, actually just plateauing completely, which is alarming. Hardaway averaged 11.5 points and 34.2% shooting from downtown this past season. He’s just 23 years old, so he could still possess some upside, but there is risk that he’ll just level out with the current skillset he has, given his lack of development since his rookie year. He also doesn’t really mesh well with Atlanta’s offensive style, as “ball movement” and and “selflessness” aren’t exactly his middle names. It will be interesting to see if he could carve out a role for himself as a spark scorer off the bench in the Hawks’ now crowded backcourt.
To be honest, if you’re going to give up a top-15 pick, you better make sure you get assets that you’d actually want, and players that fit with you well and fill a need. Atlanta got neither. Although this deal is probably a wash for the Hawks, acquiring a risky, ball-dominant, scoring two-guard and future draft picks are the furthest things from filling needs, which Atlanta had both at small forward and up front.
Grade: C+
Best/Worst Draft Scenarios
(#15 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Trading up for C Willie Cauley-Stein (Kentucky, Junior)
The Hawks, while a very complete team (should they retain SF DeMarre Carroll and PF Paul Millsap in free agency) need a lot of help in both rebounding and rim protection. They would also need to draft a prospect that could contribute right away, as a title contender like themselves cannot afford to wait for a young guy to develop. That has Cauley-Stein’s name written all over it, as he is one of the best in the draft in both rim protection and rebounding: averaging an outstanding 2.23 blocks, 1.1 steals, and 6.2 rebounds per game during his three seasons at Kentucky. Given that the teams drafting from 5-10 don’t really need a center, that could be a prime opportunity for the Hawks to trade up. As they own all of their future draft picks, packaging their 15th overall and another first-rounder to a team like the Denver Nuggets to snag Cauley-Stein is well within the realm of possibility.
Worst Case Scenario: Late-lottery teams all decide to stock up on bigs
After the top 10, big men Myles Turner, Frank Kaminsky, Trey Lyles, and Bobby Portis will all likely be available. Great news for Atlanta, a team in need of another frontcourt player, right? Problem is, the Pacers, Jazz, Suns, and Thunder (teams picking 11-14), could all use a big body. In a nightmare scenario for the Hawks, which also includes not being able to trade up for Cauley-Stein, all four of these teams would take all four of those big men . This could potentially leave a prospect like PG Cameron Payne, SF Kelly Oubre Jr, SG Devin Booker, or SF Sam Dekker sliding down to #15, but none would really address a major need for Atlanta.
Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams
For Atlanta, all they need to hope for is that their regular season play carries over to the postseason. That will likely involve the brooms coming out (sweeping) in round one, followed by a round two victory as long as their ball movement, defense, and outside shooting remains crisp. In the Conference Finals however, a much tougher task awaits: the star-studded Cleveland Cavaliers. In the best case scenario, Coach Mike Budenholzer will take a page out of Spurs Coach Gregg Popovich’s playbook from last year’s finals against SF/PF LeBron James, where San Antonio won the series 4-1. All that is needed for a win is what the Hawks have been doing: passing and threes, as well as containing LeBron and everyone around him. Should they squeak by the Cavaliers, an even tougher task will await them in the finals, but as long as the Hawks keep doing what they’re doing, and doing it well of course, this group that nobody saw coming could take home a title.
Draft Targets
Pick #9 (via Brooklyn Nets): Willie Cauley-Stein, Center, Kentucky
Considering how touted Cauley-Stein is and what team he plays for, I’m almost surprised at myself for having Cauley-Stein fall this far down the draft boards. He is a junior, yes, making him a couple years older than all the freshman taken above him, but he’s that much more talented and NBA-ready too. Probably the most versatile defender in this draft class, Cauley-Stein is a premier rim-protector and can also step out and play excellent perimeter defense when necessary. His offensive game is still developing, but he is a sold rebounder and just adds to Atlanta’s winning culture. Given their need for depth up front and for a guy that can do what Cauley-Stein does, he makes for a great pick for the Hawks here.
Season Predictions
Regular Season: The Hawks are just totally running away with the East so far. They are currently 7.5 games ahead of the second-place Raptors, and are just bruising through the competition. One would think so, what with having four all-stars plus their coach and all. I have them slotted to finish at 60-22, “just” a 16-10 finish from their current stance. They’re capable of finishing the season with 63 or 64 wins, or potentially even more, but with their huge lead on all teams out East, it makes little sense to keep their foot on the gas pedal throughout the rest of the regular season. Instead, Coach Mike Budenholzer would be wise to rest his starters towards the end in order to keep them fresh for the playoffs.
Projected Record: 61-21
Playoffs Round One
Atlanta Hawks (#1) vs. Brooklyn Nets (#8)
This should be a cakewalk for Atlanta, with all due respect to Brooklyn. The Nets have continued to be horrendously mediocre, as way too many bad contracts and lack of draft picks prevent this team from improving anytime soon. Still, PG Deron Williams remains a borderline-star and SG Joe Johnson is among the most clutch players in the league. Up front, PF/SF Thaddeus Young was a nice acquisition and C Brook Lopez remains a dominant two-way player, all while C/PF Mason Plumlee enjoys a breakout year. However, they are simply no match for the Hawks. PF Paul Millsap and C Al Horford are a better duo up front then Young/Plumlee and Lopez in every way imaginable. PG Jeff Teague more than matches up with Williams, and SG Kyle Korver will be the most lethal three-point shooter on the court by far, with teammate SF DeMarre Caroll probably coming in second. This isn’t even mentioning Atlanta’s impressive depth and all their players’ fantastic all-around ability, as well as their selfless play and flawless team chemistry. The Nets should be easy prey for the Hawks (see what I did there?).
Series Prediction: Atlanta Wins 4-0
Playoffs Round Two
Atlanta Hawks (#1) vs. Chicago Bulls (#4)
Though a significantly harder test than the Nets it’s hard to imagine the Bulls being the team to end the Hawks’ magical season without a healthy superstar PG Derrick Rose. Rose has recently gone down with yet another leg injury, and all our prayers go out to him. This Bulls team is still actually very capable of beating just about anybody, as they are quite a tough group, featuring a couple of All-Stars in SG/SF Jimmy Butler (though he is dealing with an injury of his own) and PF Pau Gasol. Reigning Defensive Player of the Year C Joakim Noah still guards the rim, and there are many other key role players who contribute as well. However, with no healthy Rose at the helm and other players being old or injury-prone, Chicago is far from a safe bet in the playoffs. And Atlanta is.
Series Prediction: Atlanta Wins 4-2
Playoffs Round Three (Eastern Conference Finals)
Atlanta Hawks (#1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (#3)
This is the matchup we’ve all been waiting for. The “Spurs of the East” versus the star-studded Cleveland squad. Both teams feature a talented starting player at all five positions, as well as depth up and down the roster backing them up. Both teams play well on both sides of the ball, with Cleveland addressing their defensive woes through mid-season acquisitions. There is one knock on each team, however: the Hawks lack playoff experience and the Cavaliers lack team chemistry. For Atlanta, this isn’t quite so pressing. Teague and Horford experienced some playoff success with SG/SF Joe Johnson and PF/SF Josh Smith back in the day, while Millsap saw the playoffs a few times in Utah and Korver has had success with multiple teams. However, their players don’t have nearly as much success as the Cavaliers do, as not a single member of the Hawks’ starting five has even made it to a Conference Finals. Cleveland, on the other hand, has a more glaring issue. Most of their key players have just joined the team this season, with the exception of PG Kyrie Irving. Superstar SF/PF LeBron James returned this past offseason, and with him brought star PF/C Kevin Love via trade, and the rest of the roster was filled out with veterans and more trade acquisitions. Not being familiar with your teammates can be fatal to a team, especially LeBron’s team, as his Miami Heat lost to the Dallas Mavericks in the 2010 Finals in his first year in South Beach. The Spurs are the only other team to beat LeBron in the finals, and they’ve done it twice. Now, however, the “Spurs of the East” will prevent him from even getting there, as a lack of team chemistry will knock “The King” off his throne in what is sure to be a grueling and exciting series.
Series Prediction: Atlanta Wins 4-3
Playoffs Round Four (Finals)
Atlanta Hawks (#1) vs. Houston Rockets (#3)
First of all, don’t be mislead by the Rockets’ #3 seeding out West. The conference is incredibly difficult, significantly harder than the East, and Houston also has a projected 55-27 regular season record. This record is also largely deflated to the injuries suffered to star C Dwight Howard throughout the season, as well as playing in the Southwest division, by far the hardest one in basketball. Lead by superstar SG James Harden, with defensive stalwarts SF Trevor Ariza, PF Josh Smith, and PG Patrick Beverley filling out the lineup, this is one heck of a matchup for the Hawks. The Hawks now have two things going against them: no superstar and little playoff experience. You pretty much need a superstar to win the finals, as evidenced by the very impressive list of Finals MVPs. Atlanta doesn’t really have one, just a collection of young stars, who also don’t have the same experience that a team like the Rockets have. The Hawks will simply be out-defended by the collection of defenders Houston has, and guarding Harden while not doubling Howard in the post will be a major issue, as the Rockets can really spread the floor. Atlanta will certainly put up a fight, as they’re ball-movement and floor-spacing will give Houston headaches on defense, but like I said, Houston simply has too many quality defenders. Both Harden and Howard have made the finals, though neither with the Rockets, and Ariza actually has two titles, with other players also having some sort of success. Harden has had an MVP-caliber season and will certainly get my vote for the prestigious award, and now he will look to become the 11th player to ever win both MVP awards in the same season.
Series Prediction: Houston wins 4-3
Finals MVP: SG James Harden
One Trade That Every Team Should Do
Hawks get: SF Wilson Chandler
Nuggets get: PF/C Elton Brand, Atlanta’s 2016 first-rounder, Atlanta’s 2015 second-rounder
Finances: With a $6.8 million deal this season and a very reasonable $7.2 million team option next year, Chandler represents a very nice contract for the Hawks. Replacing Brand’s expiring $2 million deal with Chandler’s only puts Atlanta at $63 million this season in total salary, which is light years away from the luxury tax at $76.8 million. Even if the Hawks accept Chandler’s team option next year, which they would likely do, that would only bring their grand total up to $46 million for next season, with the only key player to re-sign being PF Paul Millsap. In Atlanta, there are only steals of deals, which is why Chandler fits in so perfectly in that regard.
The Fit: With by far the best record in the East, one could easily make the case that Atlanta doesn’t need to make any moves. And they’d be right. Atlanta doesn’t need to make any moves, but should they make it to the finals and play a team from the brutal Western Conference, the Hawks would be much better off if their starting SF wasn’t DeMarre Carroll with a relative lack of depth behind him. No disrespect to Carroll at all, as his 12 points, 5 rebounds, 1.7 threes, and 1.3 steals a game are very serviceable numbers. However, Atlanta lacks depth behind him, as well as at the power forward position, and could use a combo forward to help this small problem. That’s where Chandler comes in, and at 6’8”, he is capable of playing both spots. It is likely that Chandler wouldn’t start, instead serving as a sixth man behind Carroll and Millsap and as a leader for the Hawks’ second unit. An ego-less player like Chandler is capable of doing just that and this trait would allow him to fit right in with Atlanta’s self-less brand of basketball. His averages of 14 points, 6 rebounds, and 2 threes per game wouldn’t hurt either, nor does his solid defense. Chandler is certainly a luxury for the Hawks, and it’s one that they can easily afford given their plethora of future draft picks.
Why the other team does it: It’s been no secret that Denver is shopping their veterans, despite how badly their front office seems to want it to be, and the 27 year old is at the top of that list. Acquiring draft picks are the number one priority as the franchise looks to hand the reins over to the younger guys, including PG Ty Lawson, SG Gary Harris, PF Kenneth Faried, C Jusuf Nurkic, and more. Selling Chandler, among others, and adding more draft picks are at the top of the Nuggets’ to-do list, as evidenced by the flipping of C Timofey Mozgov for a pair of second-rounders and Denver’s dismal record. Brand, at 35 and with his best years well behind him, adds little value to this deal. Though the Hawks’ second-rounder may very well be the last pick in the entire draft, and the 2016 pick is likely to be a late one too, Denver gets a lot of value for Chandler here nonetheless.
Trade Grades
Timberwolves get: PF Adreian Payne
Hawks get: 2017 first-round draft pick (lottery protected from 2017-2020; if not conveyed, turns into second-rounder)
This is very unlike GM Danny Ferry, as in it’s not an amazing trade. In fact, it’s a pretty bad one. The pick the Hawks received, as discussed under Minnesota, is fairly worthless. It is guaranteed to be either 15th or higher, or else non-existent, and the earliest it can come is 2017. The reason I bring this up is because Payne was taken with the 15th pick this year. Despite a very disappointing rookie season in which the MSU product has only played a grand total of 19 minutes, he still oozes potential, even at 23. A leader for a successful Michigan State team at college, Payne averaged 16.5 points and 7.5 rebounds in his senior year. Any trades, considering how successful the Hawks team currently is, deserve serious questioning, but selling-low and giving up so early on a rookie with no rush to do so just doesn't make any sense.
Grade: C-
Current seeding: 4th
Projected seeding: 6th
The Hawks have been relatively solid and consistent over the course of the season, with no major injuries to their key players, and thus have only been thrown off-course by minor and quick slumps. But that’s almost exactly what the problem is: there’s nothing special about this team, nothing that’s changed for the better in the past couple of years. It’s almost like the same old, same old. Sure, C Al Horford, PF Paul Millsap, PG Jeff Teague, and the others are all having decent seasons, but they’re slight drop-offs from last year’s heroics and the team is also sans SF DeMarre Carroll. Still, Atlanta continues to excel defensively, even if it falters offensively, and is simply a hard team to beat on a given night. However, with Miami adding SG/SF Joe Johnson, Charlotte’s return of C Al Jefferson, and Boston’s ever-improving young cast, I had no choice but to lower this solid -- yet same -- Atlanta roster.
First round: Boston Celtics (3)
But the fact that this is the same team as last season’s, who made the Eastern Conference Finals, might not be such a bad thing come playoff time. It’s very hard to compare other teams to this unique, young and energetic Celtic squad, but playoff experience is playoff experience. The fact of the matter remains that Boston boasts almost zero key players that have ever made it past the first round, while obviously Atlanta have several players who have been there and done that. As the playoffs are a completely different atmosphere than the regular season, I almost always pick the more experienced side when in doubt, thus the upset call here.
Prediction: Atlanta wins, 4-3
Second round: Toronto Raptors (2)
With that being said, when you face a team that is simply more talented, experience only gets you so far. Against a PF Luis Scola-C Jonas Valanciunas frontcourt, it is clear that the Millsap-Horford pairing has the definite advantage -- rebounding, defending, scoring, you name it. But what the trouble will be for Atlanta, which is frankly the same type of trouble most teams have to deal with when facing Toronto, will be containing the electric backcourt duo of PG Kyle Lowry and SG/SF DeMar DeRozan, who are averaging a combined 45+ points per game this season. Teague is a solid defender and all-around player, but there is no way that he, or any other Hawk for that matter, will be able to match up well against the duo. Essentially what it comes down to is Lowry and DeRozan versus Millsap and Horford, and with Raptors like C Bismack Biyombo potentially able to limit Atlanta’s frontcourt, this series is looking pretty solid for Toronto.
Prediction: Toronto wins, 4-2
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Utah Jazz Trade Grades
Click here for link to Chicago Bulls Trade Grades
Hawks get: SG Kirk Hinrich
Jazz get: PG Shelvin Mack
Bulls get: SG Justin Holiday, second-rounder (via Utah)
Ummm... ok? It was beyond obvious that Atlanta was overloaded at point guard, with Mack, Jeff Teague, and the emerging Dennis Schroder, so trading Mack wasn't a bad idea. So what do the Hawks do to clear up a positional logjam at point guard? They add to an already pre-existing positional logjam at shooting guard! Seriously, I mean, Kyle Korver, Kent Bazemore, Thabo Sefolosha, and Tim Hardaway Jr. are already more than enough wing players. In addition, Hinrich isn't much of an upgrade over Mack as a player, as the two guards are averaging just 3.8 and 3.9 points per game, respectively. What was the point of this trade exactly?
Grade: B-
Power Rankings
Overall rank: 10th
Tier: Playoff Locks
Projected Seeding: 4th in East
The Hawks are one of the tougher teams to pinpoint heading into the 2015-16 season. On one hand, they finished with the second best record in the league last season, as well as the top record in the East and an Eastern Conference Finals appearance as well. They also have arguably the best team chemistry in the NBA, five All-Stars (counting their coach, Mike Budenholzer) and have kept relatively the same team since last year. On the other hand, however, they got embarrassed by the Cavaliers in a playoff sweep last year, the Hawks still boast no true superstar, the top of the Eastern Conference is improved, and Atlanta did lose ex-starting SF DeMarre Carroll to the Toronto Raptors in free agency this summer. The Hawks did add a quality backup big man in C/PF Tiago Splitter, something they needed, but SG Tim Hardaway Jr. was the chief reinforcement brought in to replace Carroll. In an improved East, you can’t help but drop them down a few spots and revoke their “Title Contender” status, although with All-Stars PG Jeff Teague, SG Kyle Korver, PF Paul Millsap, C Al Horford, and others, Atlanta will still be looking to make another playoff run.
Trade Grades
Click here for link to San Antonio Spurs Trade Grades
Hawks get: C/PF Tiago Splitter
Spurs get: rights to Georgios Printezis, top 55 protected 2017 second-round pick (a.k.a: nothing)
This trade is just purely logical from Atlanta’s point of view: if you could give up next to nothing in exchange for filling a need, why wouldn’t you? The Hawks had a lack of depth behind PF Paul Millsap and C/PF Al Horford up front, and a quality big man like Splitter is exactly what they needed. His 2 year/$16.75 million remaining on his contract is fair considering the rapidly rising salary cap, and Splitter also delivered a solid 8.2 points and 4.8 rebounds in just 19.8 minutes per game with the Spurs last season. The only doubt here is if they could’ve used the money from Splitter’s contract to keep SF DeMarre Carroll from Toronto, but since we don’t know whether or not that would’ve been the case and as Atlanta did a decent job replacing Carroll, we’ll give the Hawks a pass there.
Grade: B+
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Washington Wizards Trade Grade
Click here for link to New York Knicks Trade Grade
Gave up: #15 pick in draft (turned into SF Kelly Oubre Jr.)
Got: Two future second-rounders, SG Tim Hardaway Jr.
Though PG/SG Jerian Grant was in-between for the Hawks, I will just be grading who Atlanta gave up and what they got in return. SF Kelly Oubre probably shouldn’t have gone 15th overall, as he was more of a top-20 prospect than a top-15 one, but that doesn’t concern the Hawks. For a team that had the best record in the East just last season, the motive of acquiring two future second-rounders is questionable. Although there was a relatively steep drop-off in talent from #14 to #15, simply selecting Wisconsin’s SF Sam Dekker would’ve probably just made more sense here, as Hardaway Jr. is far from an optimal fit in Atlanta.
I liked the idea of trading down for the Hawks, as they clearly weren’t wowed by anyone available at #15, but two future second-rounders is not what this championship-caliber roster needs as they moved down to #19. Oubre Jr. is probably a long-term project, as his ability to contribute right away is minimal. However, he is still an excellent defender with solid shooting ability. He’s quick and athletic, which give him the potential he needs to become an excellent slasher, although he will need to improve his lackluster ball-handling skills for that. Oubre Jr. never really made sense for Atlanta anyways, but I really don’t like the package that they netted in exchange for him.
Tim Hardaway Jr. is of course the son of an all-time great, and after his impressive rookie campaign, it was looking like he’d follow in his father’s footsteps. He hit 1.6 threes on a blazing 36.2% on them, as part of his 10.8 points per game en route to being named to the All-Rookie First Team. However, he has shown a lack of improvement in year two, actually just plateauing completely, which is alarming. Hardaway averaged 11.5 points and 34.2% shooting from downtown this past season. He’s just 23 years old, so he could still possess some upside, but there is risk that he’ll just level out with the current skillset he has, given his lack of development since his rookie year. He also doesn’t really mesh well with Atlanta’s offensive style, as “ball movement” and and “selflessness” aren’t exactly his middle names. It will be interesting to see if he could carve out a role for himself as a spark scorer off the bench in the Hawks’ now crowded backcourt.
To be honest, if you’re going to give up a top-15 pick, you better make sure you get assets that you’d actually want, and players that fit with you well and fill a need. Atlanta got neither. Although this deal is probably a wash for the Hawks, acquiring a risky, ball-dominant, scoring two-guard and future draft picks are the furthest things from filling needs, which Atlanta had both at small forward and up front.
Grade: C+
Best/Worst Draft Scenarios
(#15 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Trading up for C Willie Cauley-Stein (Kentucky, Junior)
The Hawks, while a very complete team (should they retain SF DeMarre Carroll and PF Paul Millsap in free agency) need a lot of help in both rebounding and rim protection. They would also need to draft a prospect that could contribute right away, as a title contender like themselves cannot afford to wait for a young guy to develop. That has Cauley-Stein’s name written all over it, as he is one of the best in the draft in both rim protection and rebounding: averaging an outstanding 2.23 blocks, 1.1 steals, and 6.2 rebounds per game during his three seasons at Kentucky. Given that the teams drafting from 5-10 don’t really need a center, that could be a prime opportunity for the Hawks to trade up. As they own all of their future draft picks, packaging their 15th overall and another first-rounder to a team like the Denver Nuggets to snag Cauley-Stein is well within the realm of possibility.
Worst Case Scenario: Late-lottery teams all decide to stock up on bigs
After the top 10, big men Myles Turner, Frank Kaminsky, Trey Lyles, and Bobby Portis will all likely be available. Great news for Atlanta, a team in need of another frontcourt player, right? Problem is, the Pacers, Jazz, Suns, and Thunder (teams picking 11-14), could all use a big body. In a nightmare scenario for the Hawks, which also includes not being able to trade up for Cauley-Stein, all four of these teams would take all four of those big men . This could potentially leave a prospect like PG Cameron Payne, SF Kelly Oubre Jr, SG Devin Booker, or SF Sam Dekker sliding down to #15, but none would really address a major need for Atlanta.
Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams
For Atlanta, all they need to hope for is that their regular season play carries over to the postseason. That will likely involve the brooms coming out (sweeping) in round one, followed by a round two victory as long as their ball movement, defense, and outside shooting remains crisp. In the Conference Finals however, a much tougher task awaits: the star-studded Cleveland Cavaliers. In the best case scenario, Coach Mike Budenholzer will take a page out of Spurs Coach Gregg Popovich’s playbook from last year’s finals against SF/PF LeBron James, where San Antonio won the series 4-1. All that is needed for a win is what the Hawks have been doing: passing and threes, as well as containing LeBron and everyone around him. Should they squeak by the Cavaliers, an even tougher task will await them in the finals, but as long as the Hawks keep doing what they’re doing, and doing it well of course, this group that nobody saw coming could take home a title.
Draft Targets
Pick #9 (via Brooklyn Nets): Willie Cauley-Stein, Center, Kentucky
Considering how touted Cauley-Stein is and what team he plays for, I’m almost surprised at myself for having Cauley-Stein fall this far down the draft boards. He is a junior, yes, making him a couple years older than all the freshman taken above him, but he’s that much more talented and NBA-ready too. Probably the most versatile defender in this draft class, Cauley-Stein is a premier rim-protector and can also step out and play excellent perimeter defense when necessary. His offensive game is still developing, but he is a sold rebounder and just adds to Atlanta’s winning culture. Given their need for depth up front and for a guy that can do what Cauley-Stein does, he makes for a great pick for the Hawks here.
Season Predictions
Regular Season: The Hawks are just totally running away with the East so far. They are currently 7.5 games ahead of the second-place Raptors, and are just bruising through the competition. One would think so, what with having four all-stars plus their coach and all. I have them slotted to finish at 60-22, “just” a 16-10 finish from their current stance. They’re capable of finishing the season with 63 or 64 wins, or potentially even more, but with their huge lead on all teams out East, it makes little sense to keep their foot on the gas pedal throughout the rest of the regular season. Instead, Coach Mike Budenholzer would be wise to rest his starters towards the end in order to keep them fresh for the playoffs.
Projected Record: 61-21
Playoffs Round One
Atlanta Hawks (#1) vs. Brooklyn Nets (#8)
This should be a cakewalk for Atlanta, with all due respect to Brooklyn. The Nets have continued to be horrendously mediocre, as way too many bad contracts and lack of draft picks prevent this team from improving anytime soon. Still, PG Deron Williams remains a borderline-star and SG Joe Johnson is among the most clutch players in the league. Up front, PF/SF Thaddeus Young was a nice acquisition and C Brook Lopez remains a dominant two-way player, all while C/PF Mason Plumlee enjoys a breakout year. However, they are simply no match for the Hawks. PF Paul Millsap and C Al Horford are a better duo up front then Young/Plumlee and Lopez in every way imaginable. PG Jeff Teague more than matches up with Williams, and SG Kyle Korver will be the most lethal three-point shooter on the court by far, with teammate SF DeMarre Caroll probably coming in second. This isn’t even mentioning Atlanta’s impressive depth and all their players’ fantastic all-around ability, as well as their selfless play and flawless team chemistry. The Nets should be easy prey for the Hawks (see what I did there?).
Series Prediction: Atlanta Wins 4-0
Playoffs Round Two
Atlanta Hawks (#1) vs. Chicago Bulls (#4)
Though a significantly harder test than the Nets it’s hard to imagine the Bulls being the team to end the Hawks’ magical season without a healthy superstar PG Derrick Rose. Rose has recently gone down with yet another leg injury, and all our prayers go out to him. This Bulls team is still actually very capable of beating just about anybody, as they are quite a tough group, featuring a couple of All-Stars in SG/SF Jimmy Butler (though he is dealing with an injury of his own) and PF Pau Gasol. Reigning Defensive Player of the Year C Joakim Noah still guards the rim, and there are many other key role players who contribute as well. However, with no healthy Rose at the helm and other players being old or injury-prone, Chicago is far from a safe bet in the playoffs. And Atlanta is.
Series Prediction: Atlanta Wins 4-2
Playoffs Round Three (Eastern Conference Finals)
Atlanta Hawks (#1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (#3)
This is the matchup we’ve all been waiting for. The “Spurs of the East” versus the star-studded Cleveland squad. Both teams feature a talented starting player at all five positions, as well as depth up and down the roster backing them up. Both teams play well on both sides of the ball, with Cleveland addressing their defensive woes through mid-season acquisitions. There is one knock on each team, however: the Hawks lack playoff experience and the Cavaliers lack team chemistry. For Atlanta, this isn’t quite so pressing. Teague and Horford experienced some playoff success with SG/SF Joe Johnson and PF/SF Josh Smith back in the day, while Millsap saw the playoffs a few times in Utah and Korver has had success with multiple teams. However, their players don’t have nearly as much success as the Cavaliers do, as not a single member of the Hawks’ starting five has even made it to a Conference Finals. Cleveland, on the other hand, has a more glaring issue. Most of their key players have just joined the team this season, with the exception of PG Kyrie Irving. Superstar SF/PF LeBron James returned this past offseason, and with him brought star PF/C Kevin Love via trade, and the rest of the roster was filled out with veterans and more trade acquisitions. Not being familiar with your teammates can be fatal to a team, especially LeBron’s team, as his Miami Heat lost to the Dallas Mavericks in the 2010 Finals in his first year in South Beach. The Spurs are the only other team to beat LeBron in the finals, and they’ve done it twice. Now, however, the “Spurs of the East” will prevent him from even getting there, as a lack of team chemistry will knock “The King” off his throne in what is sure to be a grueling and exciting series.
Series Prediction: Atlanta Wins 4-3
Playoffs Round Four (Finals)
Atlanta Hawks (#1) vs. Houston Rockets (#3)
First of all, don’t be mislead by the Rockets’ #3 seeding out West. The conference is incredibly difficult, significantly harder than the East, and Houston also has a projected 55-27 regular season record. This record is also largely deflated to the injuries suffered to star C Dwight Howard throughout the season, as well as playing in the Southwest division, by far the hardest one in basketball. Lead by superstar SG James Harden, with defensive stalwarts SF Trevor Ariza, PF Josh Smith, and PG Patrick Beverley filling out the lineup, this is one heck of a matchup for the Hawks. The Hawks now have two things going against them: no superstar and little playoff experience. You pretty much need a superstar to win the finals, as evidenced by the very impressive list of Finals MVPs. Atlanta doesn’t really have one, just a collection of young stars, who also don’t have the same experience that a team like the Rockets have. The Hawks will simply be out-defended by the collection of defenders Houston has, and guarding Harden while not doubling Howard in the post will be a major issue, as the Rockets can really spread the floor. Atlanta will certainly put up a fight, as they’re ball-movement and floor-spacing will give Houston headaches on defense, but like I said, Houston simply has too many quality defenders. Both Harden and Howard have made the finals, though neither with the Rockets, and Ariza actually has two titles, with other players also having some sort of success. Harden has had an MVP-caliber season and will certainly get my vote for the prestigious award, and now he will look to become the 11th player to ever win both MVP awards in the same season.
Series Prediction: Houston wins 4-3
Finals MVP: SG James Harden
One Trade That Every Team Should Do
Hawks get: SF Wilson Chandler
Nuggets get: PF/C Elton Brand, Atlanta’s 2016 first-rounder, Atlanta’s 2015 second-rounder
Finances: With a $6.8 million deal this season and a very reasonable $7.2 million team option next year, Chandler represents a very nice contract for the Hawks. Replacing Brand’s expiring $2 million deal with Chandler’s only puts Atlanta at $63 million this season in total salary, which is light years away from the luxury tax at $76.8 million. Even if the Hawks accept Chandler’s team option next year, which they would likely do, that would only bring their grand total up to $46 million for next season, with the only key player to re-sign being PF Paul Millsap. In Atlanta, there are only steals of deals, which is why Chandler fits in so perfectly in that regard.
The Fit: With by far the best record in the East, one could easily make the case that Atlanta doesn’t need to make any moves. And they’d be right. Atlanta doesn’t need to make any moves, but should they make it to the finals and play a team from the brutal Western Conference, the Hawks would be much better off if their starting SF wasn’t DeMarre Carroll with a relative lack of depth behind him. No disrespect to Carroll at all, as his 12 points, 5 rebounds, 1.7 threes, and 1.3 steals a game are very serviceable numbers. However, Atlanta lacks depth behind him, as well as at the power forward position, and could use a combo forward to help this small problem. That’s where Chandler comes in, and at 6’8”, he is capable of playing both spots. It is likely that Chandler wouldn’t start, instead serving as a sixth man behind Carroll and Millsap and as a leader for the Hawks’ second unit. An ego-less player like Chandler is capable of doing just that and this trait would allow him to fit right in with Atlanta’s self-less brand of basketball. His averages of 14 points, 6 rebounds, and 2 threes per game wouldn’t hurt either, nor does his solid defense. Chandler is certainly a luxury for the Hawks, and it’s one that they can easily afford given their plethora of future draft picks.
Why the other team does it: It’s been no secret that Denver is shopping their veterans, despite how badly their front office seems to want it to be, and the 27 year old is at the top of that list. Acquiring draft picks are the number one priority as the franchise looks to hand the reins over to the younger guys, including PG Ty Lawson, SG Gary Harris, PF Kenneth Faried, C Jusuf Nurkic, and more. Selling Chandler, among others, and adding more draft picks are at the top of the Nuggets’ to-do list, as evidenced by the flipping of C Timofey Mozgov for a pair of second-rounders and Denver’s dismal record. Brand, at 35 and with his best years well behind him, adds little value to this deal. Though the Hawks’ second-rounder may very well be the last pick in the entire draft, and the 2016 pick is likely to be a late one too, Denver gets a lot of value for Chandler here nonetheless.
Trade Grades
Timberwolves get: PF Adreian Payne
Hawks get: 2017 first-round draft pick (lottery protected from 2017-2020; if not conveyed, turns into second-rounder)
This is very unlike GM Danny Ferry, as in it’s not an amazing trade. In fact, it’s a pretty bad one. The pick the Hawks received, as discussed under Minnesota, is fairly worthless. It is guaranteed to be either 15th or higher, or else non-existent, and the earliest it can come is 2017. The reason I bring this up is because Payne was taken with the 15th pick this year. Despite a very disappointing rookie season in which the MSU product has only played a grand total of 19 minutes, he still oozes potential, even at 23. A leader for a successful Michigan State team at college, Payne averaged 16.5 points and 7.5 rebounds in his senior year. Any trades, considering how successful the Hawks team currently is, deserve serious questioning, but selling-low and giving up so early on a rookie with no rush to do so just doesn't make any sense.
Grade: C-
State of the Franchise
Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $35.6 million
Background: It feels like it was ages ago, but it has only been a few years since the Hawks were legitimate title contenders with a totally different core, boasting a trio of SG Joe Johnson, PF Josh Smith, C Al Horford, and emerging young PG Jeff Teague. Fast forward to today: Johnson and Smith are long gone, Teague has become one of the better starting point guards in the whole league, and Horford has become the face of the franchise. Former Utah Jazz PF Paul Millsap became a much more cost-efficient replacement for Josh Smith, and sharpshooter SG Kyle Korver was brought in from Chicago, as well as a flurry of other “3 and D” wing players. Now, the Hawks are title contenders again and are by far the best team in the entire Eastern Conference.
Current Financial State: With just $41 million committed in contracts next year, including minor steals in two of their best players, C Al Horford ($12 million) and PG Jeff Teague ($8 million), the Hawks have money to burn. Of course the mastermind, GM Danny Ferry isn’t going to "burn" that money on unworthy players. A star small forward has been on the Hawks’ wish list for quite a few years now (see: Josh Smith and Joe Johnson days). However, it is absolutely critical that the Hawks retain All-Star Millsap, hopefully for something close to the steal of a deal that he is currently on ($9.5 million). Assuming that deal takes about $14 million annually on a 3 year deal, that should leave the Hawks with about $21 million in cap space.
Targets: Unfortunately for Atlanta, the small forward class is not particularly deep this year, with most expiring contracts either being player options or restricted. LeBron James (CLE), Jeff Green (MEM), Luol Deng (MIA) and Thaddeus Young (MIN) all have player options that they are likely to accept with their current teams; Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, and Tobias Harris are all restricted. However, the Chicago Bulls could be very tied down financially, leaving them hard-pressed to match an offer for Jimmy Butler. This gives the Hawks and their $21 million to burn the opportunity to swoop in (no pun intended) and snag Butler for the maximum they’re allowed to pay him, a 4 year/$67.7 million deal, which is well above what Butler asked for from Chicago in pre-season extension talks, where the two sides could not agree on a deal. The Bulls, who turned down an offer worth $56 million over 4 years, can only watch in regret as Butler pads his value game by game in his monstrous breakout campaign. The Bulls may still match Atlanta’s offer sheet, but I'm sure Danny Ferry will have a backup plan at small forward should they strike out on Butler.
The Fit: I know what you're thinking: "Hey, I thought Jimmy Butler was a shooting guard!", and you're right. For the most part. However at 6’7” and just two inches shorter than big man teammate Taj Gibson, it's hard to say that Butler can't play small forward. As a flashy two-way star that the Hawks have been longing for since Dominique Wilkins ran the show (okay maybe that's a little too far back), Butler gives the Hawks everything they need and instantly puts them as favorites in the weaker Eastern Conference. A defensive specialist nicknamed "The Lebron Stopper" (if there ever was one), Butler has firmly established himself as one of the premier wing defenders in the league, and putting him on a team that needs one makes this a perfect fit. He has shown vast improvement in his shot this year as well, averaging 21 points and a three per game on 46% shooting from the field, and would slide in perfectly as a potential go-to scorer in Mike Budenholzer's system. In addition, Butler offers 2 steals, 6 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game. Just imagine the spacing and ball movement on offense in a lineup of Teague, Korver, Butler, Millsap, and Horford. A match made in heaven, if the money works.
Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $35.6 million
Background: It feels like it was ages ago, but it has only been a few years since the Hawks were legitimate title contenders with a totally different core, boasting a trio of SG Joe Johnson, PF Josh Smith, C Al Horford, and emerging young PG Jeff Teague. Fast forward to today: Johnson and Smith are long gone, Teague has become one of the better starting point guards in the whole league, and Horford has become the face of the franchise. Former Utah Jazz PF Paul Millsap became a much more cost-efficient replacement for Josh Smith, and sharpshooter SG Kyle Korver was brought in from Chicago, as well as a flurry of other “3 and D” wing players. Now, the Hawks are title contenders again and are by far the best team in the entire Eastern Conference.
Current Financial State: With just $41 million committed in contracts next year, including minor steals in two of their best players, C Al Horford ($12 million) and PG Jeff Teague ($8 million), the Hawks have money to burn. Of course the mastermind, GM Danny Ferry isn’t going to "burn" that money on unworthy players. A star small forward has been on the Hawks’ wish list for quite a few years now (see: Josh Smith and Joe Johnson days). However, it is absolutely critical that the Hawks retain All-Star Millsap, hopefully for something close to the steal of a deal that he is currently on ($9.5 million). Assuming that deal takes about $14 million annually on a 3 year deal, that should leave the Hawks with about $21 million in cap space.
Targets: Unfortunately for Atlanta, the small forward class is not particularly deep this year, with most expiring contracts either being player options or restricted. LeBron James (CLE), Jeff Green (MEM), Luol Deng (MIA) and Thaddeus Young (MIN) all have player options that they are likely to accept with their current teams; Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, and Tobias Harris are all restricted. However, the Chicago Bulls could be very tied down financially, leaving them hard-pressed to match an offer for Jimmy Butler. This gives the Hawks and their $21 million to burn the opportunity to swoop in (no pun intended) and snag Butler for the maximum they’re allowed to pay him, a 4 year/$67.7 million deal, which is well above what Butler asked for from Chicago in pre-season extension talks, where the two sides could not agree on a deal. The Bulls, who turned down an offer worth $56 million over 4 years, can only watch in regret as Butler pads his value game by game in his monstrous breakout campaign. The Bulls may still match Atlanta’s offer sheet, but I'm sure Danny Ferry will have a backup plan at small forward should they strike out on Butler.
The Fit: I know what you're thinking: "Hey, I thought Jimmy Butler was a shooting guard!", and you're right. For the most part. However at 6’7” and just two inches shorter than big man teammate Taj Gibson, it's hard to say that Butler can't play small forward. As a flashy two-way star that the Hawks have been longing for since Dominique Wilkins ran the show (okay maybe that's a little too far back), Butler gives the Hawks everything they need and instantly puts them as favorites in the weaker Eastern Conference. A defensive specialist nicknamed "The Lebron Stopper" (if there ever was one), Butler has firmly established himself as one of the premier wing defenders in the league, and putting him on a team that needs one makes this a perfect fit. He has shown vast improvement in his shot this year as well, averaging 21 points and a three per game on 46% shooting from the field, and would slide in perfectly as a potential go-to scorer in Mike Budenholzer's system. In addition, Butler offers 2 steals, 6 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game. Just imagine the spacing and ball movement on offense in a lineup of Teague, Korver, Butler, Millsap, and Horford. A match made in heaven, if the money works.
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