The Ball Blog
  • Home
  • Articles
    • Trade Grades
    • Season Predictions: 2016
    • Power Rankings: 2015-16
    • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios
    • NBA PG's Chat >
      • Establishing Personalities, Part 2
      • Establishing Personalities, Part 1
      • Free Agency
      • Rookies
      • Season in Review
      • Champs!
      • Ganging Up
      • I'm Rooting For...
      • Finals!
      • Choked!
      • Buzzer-Beater!
      • MVP!
    • Best Case Scenarios for Playoff Teams
    • Draft Targets
    • Season Predictions: 2014-15
    • One Trade That Every Team Should Do
    • State of the Franchise
  • Teams
    • Atlantic >
      • Boston Celtics >
        • Trade Grades Celtics
        • Season Predictions 2016 Celtics
        • Power Rankings Celtics
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Celtics
        • Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams Celtics
        • Draft Targets Celtics
        • Season Predictions Celtics
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Celtics
        • State of the Franchise Celtics
      • Brooklyn Nets >
        • Trade Grades Nets
        • Season Predictions 2016 Nets
        • Power Rankings Nets
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Nets
        • Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams Nets
        • Draft Targets Nets
        • Season Predictions Nets
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Nets
        • State of the Franchise Nets
      • New York Knicks >
        • Trade Grades Knicks
        • Season Predictions 2016 Knicks
        • Power Rankings Knicks
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Knicks
        • Draft Targets Knicks
        • Season Predictions Knicks
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Knicks
        • State of the Franchise Knicks
      • Philadelphia 76ers >
        • Trade Graders 76ers
        • Season Predictions 2016 76ers
        • Power Rankings 76ers
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios 76ers
        • Draft Targets 76ers
        • Season Predictions 76ers
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do 76ers
        • State of the Franchise 76ers
      • Toronto Raptors >
        • Trade Grades Raptors
        • Season Predictions 2016 Raptors
        • Power Rankings Raptors
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Raptors
        • Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams Raptors
        • Draft Targets Raptors
        • Season Predictions Raptors
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Raptors
        • State of the Franchise Raptors
    • Central >
      • Chicago Bulls >
        • Trade Grades Bulls
        • Season Predictions 2016 Bulls
        • Power Rankings Bulls
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Bulls
        • Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams Bulls
        • Draft Targets Bulls
        • Season Predictions Bulls
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Bulls
        • State of the Franchise Bulls
        • OLD Chicago Bulls
      • Cleveland Cavaliers >
        • Trade Grades Cavaliers
        • Season Predictions 2016 Cavaliers
        • Power Rankings Cavaliers
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Cavaliers
        • Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams Cavaliers
        • Draft Targets Cavaliers
        • Season Predictions Cavaliers
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Cavaliers
        • State of the Franchise Cavaliers
      • Detroit Pistons >
        • Trade Grades Pistons
        • Season Predictions 2016 Pistons
        • Power Rankings Pistons
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Pistons
        • Draft Targets Pistons
        • Season Predictions Pistons
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Pistons
        • State of the Franchise Pistons
      • Indiana Pacers >
        • Trade Grades Pacers
        • Season Predictions 2016 Pacers
        • Power Rankings Pacers
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Pacers
        • Draft Targets Pacers
        • Season Predictions Pacers
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Pacers
        • State of the Franchise Pacers
        • OLD Indiana Pacers
      • Milwaukee Bucks >
        • Trade Grades Bucks
        • Season Predictions 2016 Bucks
        • Power Rankings Bucks
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Bucks
        • Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams Bucks
        • Draft Targets Bucks
        • Season Predictions Bucks
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Bucks
        • State of the Franchise Bucks
        • OLD Milwaukee Bucks
    • Southeast >
      • Atlanta Hawks >
        • Trade Grades Hawks
        • Season Predictions 2016 Hawks
        • Power Rankings Hawks
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Hawks
        • Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams Hawks
        • Draft Targets Hawks
        • Season Predictions Hawks
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Hawks
        • State of the Franchise Hawks
      • Charlotte Hornets >
        • Trade Grades Hornets
        • Season Predictions 2016 Hornets
        • Power Rankings Hornets
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Hornets
        • Draft Targets Hornets
        • Season Predictions Hornets
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Hornets
        • State of the Franchise Hornets
      • Miami Heat >
        • Trade Grades Heat
        • Season Predictions 2016 Heat
        • Power Rankings Heat
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Heat
        • Draft Targets Heat
        • Season Predictions Heat
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Heat
        • State of the Franchise Heat
      • Orlando Magic >
        • Trade Grades Magic
        • Season Predictions 2016 Magic
        • Power Rankings Magic
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Magic
        • Draft Targets Magic
        • Season Predictions Magic
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Magic
        • State of the Franchise Magic
      • Washington Wizards >
        • Trade Grades Wizards
        • Season Predictions 2016 Wizards
        • Power Rankings Wizards
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Wizards
        • Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams Wizards
        • Draft Targets Wizards
        • Season Predictions Wizards
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Wizards
        • State of the Franchise Wizards
    • Northwest >
      • Denver Nuggets >
        • Trade Grades Nuggets
        • Season Predictions 2016 Nuggets
        • Power Rankings Nuggets
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Nuggets
        • Draft Targets Nuggets
        • Season Predictions Nuggets
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Nuggets
        • State of the Franchise Nuggets
      • Minnesota Timberwolves >
        • Trade Grades Timberwolves
        • Season Predictions 2016 Timberwolves
        • Power Rankings Timberwolves
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Timberwolves
        • Draft Targets Timberwolves
        • Season Predictions Timberwolves
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Timberwolves
        • State of the Franchise Timberwolves
      • Oklahoma City Thunder >
        • Trade Grades Thunder
        • Season Predictions 2016 Thunder
        • Power Rankings Thunder
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Thunder
        • Draft Targets Thunder
        • Season Predictions Thunder
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Thunder
        • State of the Franchise Thunder
      • Portland Trail Blazers >
        • Trade Grades Blazers
        • Season Predictions 2016 Blazers
        • Power Rankings Blazers
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Blazers
        • Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams Blazers
        • Draft Targets Blazers
        • Season Predictions Blazers
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Blazers
        • State of the Franchise Blazers
      • Utah Jazz >
        • Trade Grades Jazz
        • Season Predictions 2016 Jazz
        • Power Rankings Jazz
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Jazz
        • Draft Targets Jazz
        • Season Predictions Jazz
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Jazz
        • State of the Franchise Jazz
    • Pacific >
      • Golden State Warriors >
        • Trade Grades Warriors
        • Season Predictions 2016 Warriors
        • Power Rankings Warriors
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Warriors
        • Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams Warriors
        • Draft Targets Warriors
        • Season Predictions Warriors
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Warriors
        • State of the Franchise Warriors
      • Los Angeles Clippers >
        • Trade Grades Clippers
        • Season Predictions 2016 Clippers
        • Power Rankings Clippers
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Clippers
        • Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams Clippers
        • Draft Targets Clippers
        • Season Predictions Clippers
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Clippers
        • State of the Franchise Clippers
      • Los Angeles Lakers >
        • Trade Grades Lakers
        • Season Predictions 2016 Lakers
        • Power Rankings Lakers
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Lakers
        • Draft Targets Lakers
        • Season Predictions Lakers
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Lakers
        • State of the Franchise Lakers
      • Phoenix Suns >
        • Trade Grades Suns
        • Season Predictions 2016 Suns
        • Power Rankings Suns
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Suns
        • Draft Targets Suns
        • Season Predictions Suns
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Suns
        • State of the Franchise Suns
      • Sacramento Kings >
        • Trade Grades Kings
        • Season Predictions 2016 Kings
        • Power Rankings Kings
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Kings
        • Draft Targets Kings
        • Season Predictions Kings
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Kings
        • State of the Franchise Kings
    • Southwest >
      • Dallas Mavericks >
        • Trade Grades Mavericks
        • Season Predictions 2016 Mavericks
        • Power Rankings Mavericks
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Mavericks
        • Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams Mavericks
        • Draft Targets Mavericks
        • Season Predictions Mavericks
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Mavericks
        • State of the Franchise Mavericks
      • Houston Rockets >
        • Trade Grades Rockets
        • Season Predictions 2016 Rockets
        • Power Rankings Rockets
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Rockets
        • Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams Rockets
        • Draft Targets Rockets
        • Season Predictions Rockets
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Rockets
        • State of the Franchise Rockets
      • Memphis Grizzlies >
        • Trade Grades Grizzlies
        • Season Predictions 2016 Grizzlies
        • Power Rankings Grizzlies
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Grizzlies
        • Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams Grizzlies
        • Draft Targets Grizzlies
        • Season Predictions Grizzlies
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Grizzlies
        • State of the Franchise Grizzlies
      • New Orleans Pelicans >
        • Trade Grades Pelicans
        • Season Predictions 2016 Pelicans
        • Power Rankings Pelicans
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Pelicans
        • Best Case Scenario For Every Playoff Team Pelicans
        • Draft Targets Pelicans
        • Season Predictions Pelicans
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Pelicans
        • State of the Franchise Pelicans
      • San Antonio Spurs >
        • Trade Grades Spurs
        • Season Predictions 2016 Spurs
        • Power Rankings Spurs
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Spurs
        • Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams Spurs
        • Draft Targets Spurs
        • Season Predictions Spurs
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Spurs
        • State of the Franchise Spurs
  • Weekly Survey
  • Trivia
    • 1960s and Earlier >
      • 1960s-Easy
      • 1960s-Medium
      • 1960s-Hard
    • 1970s >
      • 1970s-Easy
      • 1970s-Medium
      • 1970s-Hard
    • 1980s >
      • 1980s-Easy
      • 1980s-Medium
      • 1980s-Hard
    • 1990s >
      • 1990s-Easy
      • 1990s-Medium
      • 1990s-Hard
    • 2000s >
      • 2000s-Easy
      • 2000s-Medium
      • 2000s-Hard
    • 2010s/Present >
      • 2010s-Easy
      • 2010s-Medium
      • 2010s-Hard
    • General >
      • General-Easy
      • General-Medium
      • General-Hard
    • All-time Records >
      • Records-Easier
      • Records-Harder
  • Blog
    • Evaluating NBA Teams' Drafting >
      • Outline
      • Coefficients
      • Grooming the Data Set
      • Final Rankings
    • Sizing up the 2016-17 MVP Race >
      • The Warriors
      • Familiar Faces
      • Team's Just Not Good Enough
      • The Dark Horses
      • The Man Nobody Sees Coming
    • Playoff Predictions >
      • Playoff Predictions: East
      • Playoff Predictions: West
    • This Week in Basketball...
    • Unpopular Opinions: Draft Day 2017
    • Free Agency News: 2017
  • Us
    • About Us
    • Contact Us

Familiar Faces

LeBron James

9/6/2016

0 Comments

 
Picture
​​​There's no more of a "familiar face" in the MVP race over the last decade than LeBron. He'll turn 32 on December 30th, but his stats aren't even declining too much just yet: last yer, he averaged 25.3 points, 7.4 rebounds, 6.8 assists, 1.4 steals and 0.6 blocks per game on efficient shooting splits of 52.0/30.9/73.1; these numbers were good enough for James to tie for third on the league's PER list this past season. He's still got it.

Of course, the challenge for LeBron will be maintaining an MVP-caliber stat line as he ages. While there have been no major drop-offs in his game thus far, it remains to be seen how James will manage a reduced ability to explode and drive down the lane. Actions like this, when done too often, can have a major wear and tear affect on the body if one isn't young enough. The forward will need to develop an improved outside shot to compensate for this, but again, James only connected on 30.9% of his threes last year, and that number has actually been steadily decreasing for him as of late. In 2012-13, LeBron hit from downtown at a very impressive 40.6% clip; but the following year the number dropped to 37.9%; then to 35.4%; then to 30.9% this past season. Making approximately one out of every three shots from behind the arc is considered decent in the NBA. It is absolutely essential that the superstar develops a better outside shot as he ages.

But James isn't that old yet. He's still undoubtedly the East's best player, and maybe even the world's best too. This means that as long as he leads his Cavaliers to his conference's top record, which is indeed very likely, that he'll have as good of a shot as anyone to take home his fifth MVP award. The only person that could theoretically have a better case than him is the best player on the top team in the West. But with that team likely being Golden State, and the Curry-Durant dynamic still being unclear, I'd have to conclude that if you're in Vegas, James is probably the safest bet of all -- though not necessarily the favorite (I'll get to that) -- to put your money on for the Maurice Podoloff Trophy.

0 Comments

Russell Westbrook

9/4/2016

0 Comments

 
Picture
​​In his final season with Durant (and Ibaka) last year, Westbrook put on one hell of a show: he averaged 23.5 points, 10.4 assists, 7.8 rebounds, and 2.0 steals per game on 45.4/29.6/81.2 shooting splits, with the league's third-best PER of 27.64. The performance earned him fourth place on the MVP ballots, but arguably was not even the best of his career. Indeed, the year prior, Westbrook posted the league's second-best PER of 29.12 -- largely thanks to his career-high 28.1 points per game, earning him the scoring title that year -- where the point guard also finished fourth in MVP voting. Of course now, however, Durant (and Ibaka) are gone, and everything has changed for Westbrook.

To quote NumberFire.com:
           "Even with Durant on his team, Westbrook already boasted one of the highest usage rates in the league at 33.1 percent last season. For the season, that number jumped to an insane 39.0 with Durant off of the floor last year. If he were to maintain that for an entire season, that would give Westbrook the highest usage rate of all-time, surpassing the 38.7 percent usage rate Kobe Bryant put up in the 2005-06 season.

The 2014-15 Thunder team is a great litmus test for how great Westbrook can be, as Durant was limited to just 27 games that year due to injury. In that season, Westbrook had the second-highest usage rate of all-time at 38.3 while posting 28.1 points, 8.6 assists, and 7.3 rebounds per game."

But Westbrook, who will turn 28 after the season begins, is only improving. Indeed, with complete command of the offense and a solid supporting cast around him -- including SG Victor Oladipo, C Enes Kanter, and more -- there is a legitimate chance that Westbrook, even in the absence of Durant, will once again average a double-double. Who knows, with the way the superstar has been rebounding the basketball, there's an outside chance that Westbrook could join the great Oscar Robertson as the only players to ever average a triple-double over the course of a season.

But for all the monstrous numbers that Westbrook will inevitably put up, there's still one major drawback to overcome, even if the point guard stays healthy -- team success. Durant's move to Golden State may have given Westbrook the opportunity to post spectacular, MVP-caliber (and then some) statistics, but it removes Oklahoma City from the upper echelon of the West. After the shakeup, the Warriors and Spurs appear to be the conference's automatic 1-2, respectively, and the Clippers as the likely third seed; this leaves everybody else to scramble for the rest of the playoff spots. But even if Westbrook wills the Thunder to a top-five seed (which I actually consider as rather likely), the case for him actually taking home the hardware will almost certainly prove to be difficult. Curry, Durant, LeBron, and others will all also post fantastic stats, and even if they're not quite as dazzling as Westbrook's, the respective win columns will nonetheless ultimately be the deciding factor, as it always is, without exception.

I know what you're thinking. 'Well that sounds ridiculous. TheBallBlog, you're really telling me that even if someone were to literally average a triple-double over the course of a season, that someone else would win MVP, just because that someone else plays on the better team?'

Well actually, we can test that theory, because a certain someone did average a triple-double over the course of a season. In the 1961-62 season, Oscar Robertson of the Cincinnati Royals (yeah, that's right) put up 30.8 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 11.4 assists per game. Not only that, but Wilt Chamberlain of the Philadelphia Warriors (yup) averaged 38.4 points and 27.2 rebounds per game that very same year; that was also the season where Wilt unforgettably scored 100 points in a single game. Wilt's Warriors and Oscar's Royals (now Sacramento Kings, by the way) went 49-31 and 43-37 respectively, each finishing second in their respective conferences (out of only five teams back then). 

So who won MVP that year? Two of the greatest seasons ever -- how could you possibly decide? Which statistics are valued most?

The answer is simple: wins. In that very same season, the legendary Bill Russell -- who was part of 11 Celtic championships -- averaged 18.9 points and 23.6 points per game. Also amazing, but both statistics are short of what Wilt averaged, and probably not quite as impressive as Oscar's triple-double.

But there is one statistic that Russell won. The Celtics went 60-20 that year, and thus Russell won his third of five MVP awards.

Sure, that was over fifty years ago. But the phenomenon of needing a successful team to claim the Maurice Podoloff Trophy remains. There are several relevant examples that I could point to as of late -- namely the 2014-15 race where Curry edged out Harden, Westbrook, and others for his first such award. But I think the 2010-11 race best illustrates just how much a difference only a few wins can make.

Of course, LeBron James was the favorite to win that year. The undisputed best player in the world, he was coming off of two straight MVPs entering his first season in Miami; hence, his reputation seemingly would give him the benefit of the doubt should there even be any "doubt" as to who would earn the hardware that year. Though the Heat and James himself sputtered a little out of the gate, LeBron nonetheless put forth another spectacular season, albeit sub-par for his own standards: 26.7 points, 7.5 rebounds, 7.0 assists, 1.6 steals, and 0.6 blocks per game on 51.0/33.0/75.9 shooting splits. He still posted the league's top PER at 27.34.

But an emerging young point guard by the name of Derrick Rose, only 22 years old and entering just his third professional season, unexpectedly had a phenomenal year by his young standards. He averaged 25.0 points, 7.7 assists, 4.1 rebounds, 1.0 steals, and 0.6 blocks per game on 44.5/33.2/85.8 shooting splits. Still, Rose only posted the league's ninth-best PER of 23.62.

Thus one might deduce from the above information that, although he may have fumbled a little bit, it would seem like a rather routine MVP from the best player in the world. And meanwhile, some young star had a great season too -- maybe he'll even take that mantle from LeBron one day (unless, of course, his ACLs say otherwise).

Ah, but we forgot to account for one very important statistic: wins. Still, LeBron's Heat went 58-24, good for second in the East and third in the NBA overall. No problem there, right?

Unless, of course, Rose's Bulls went 62-20, good for the NBA's best record. And unless, of course, that those four wins really made that much of a difference in voters' minds.

And, of course, they did -- Rose became the league's youngest MVP ever, interrupting James' streak of 4 MVP wins in 5 years (James won two MVPs directly on both sides of the 'anomaly' in 2011).

Look, I'm not going to get into the debate (right now, at least) about whether team success should or shouldn't play such a large factor in determining an individual award -- that's in fact a completely different discussion. But the fact remains that it does indeed remain a significant factor, and it's one that Westbrook -- no matter how jaw-dropping his stats are -- will in all likelihood not be able to overcome this year in order to win his first MVP award.

0 Comments

    Author

    Write something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview.

    Archives

    September 2016

    Categories

    All

    RSS Feed

Proudly powered by Weebly
© 2015 The Ball Blog