​​​There's no more of a "familiar face" in the MVP race over the last decade than LeBron. He'll turn 32 on December 30th, but his stats aren't even declining too much just yet: last yer, he averaged 25.3 points, 7.4 rebounds, 6.8 assists, 1.4 steals and 0.6 blocks per game on efficient shooting splits of 52.0/30.9/73.1; these numbers were good enough for James to tie for third on the league's PER list this past season. He's still got it.

Of course, the challenge for LeBron will be maintaining an MVP-caliber stat line as he ages. While there have been no major drop-offs in his game thus far, it remains to be seen how James will manage a reduced ability to explode and drive down the lane. Actions like this, when done too often, can have a major wear and tear affect on the body if one isn't young enough. The forward will need to develop an improved outside shot to compensate for this, but again, James only connected on 30.9% of his threes last year, and that number has actually been steadily decreasing for him as of late. In 2012-13, LeBron hit from downtown at a very impressive 40.6% clip; but the following year the number dropped to 37.9%; then to 35.4%; then to 30.9% this past season. Making approximately one out of every three shots from behind the arc is considered decent in the NBA. It is absolutely essential that the superstar develops a better outside shot as he ages.

But James isn't that old yet. He's still undoubtedly the East's best player, and maybe even the world's best too. This means that as long as he leads his Cavaliers to his conference's top record, which is indeed very likely, that he'll have as good of a shot as anyone to take home his fifth MVP award. The only person that could theoretically have a better case than him is the best player on the top team in the West. But with that team likely being Golden State, and the Curry-Durant dynamic still being unclear, I'd have to conclude that if you're in Vegas, James is probably the safest bet of all -- though not necessarily the favorite (I'll get to that) -- to put your money on for the Maurice Podoloff Trophy.

​​In his final season with Durant (and Ibaka) last year, Westbrook put on one hell of a show: he averaged 23.5 points, 10.4 assists, 7.8 rebounds, and 2.0 steals per game on 45.4/29.6/81.2 shooting splits, with the league's third-best PER of 27.64. The performance earned him fourth place on the MVP ballots, but arguably was not even the best of his career. Indeed, the year prior, Westbrook posted the league's second-best PER of 29.12 -- largely thanks to his career-high 28.1 points per game, earning him the scoring title that year -- where the point guard also finished fourth in MVP voting. Of course now, however, Durant (and Ibaka) are gone, and everything has changed for Westbrook.

To quote NumberFire.com:
           "Even with Durant on his team, Westbrook already boasted one of the highest usage rates in the league at 33.1 percent last season. For the season, that number jumped to an insane 39.0 with Durant off of the floor last year. If he were to maintain that for an entire season, that would give Westbrook the highest usage rate of all-time, surpassing the 38.7 percent usage rate Kobe Bryant put up in the 2005-06 season.

The 2014-15 Thunder team is a great litmus test for how great Westbrook can be, as Durant was limited to just 27 games that year due to injury. In that season, Westbrook had the second-highest usage rate of all-time at 38.3 while posting 28.1 points, 8.6 assists, and 7.3 rebounds per game."

But Westbrook, who will turn 28 after the season begins, is only improving. Indeed, with complete command of the offense and a solid supporting cast around him -- including SG Victor Oladipo, C Enes Kanter, and more -- there is a legitimate chance that Westbrook, even in the absence of Durant, will once again average a double-double. Who knows, with the way the superstar has been rebounding the basketball, there's an outside chance that Westbrook could join the great Oscar Robertson as the only players to ever average a triple-double over the course of a season.

But for all the monstrous numbers that Westbrook will inevitably put up, there's still one major drawback to overcome, even if the point guard stays healthy -- team success. Durant's move to Golden State may have given Westbrook the opportunity to post spectacular, MVP-caliber (and then some) statistics, but it removes Oklahoma City from the upper echelon of the West. After the shakeup, the Warriors and Spurs appear to be the conference's automatic 1-2, respectively, and the Clippers as the likely third seed; this leaves everybody else to scramble for the rest of the playoff spots. But even if Westbrook wills the Thunder to a top-five seed (which I actually consider as rather likely), the case for him actually taking home the hardware will almost certainly prove to be difficult. Curry, Durant, LeBron, and others will all also post fantastic stats, and even if they're not quite as dazzling as Westbrook's, the respective win columns will nonetheless ultimately be the deciding factor, as it always is, without exception.

I know what you're thinking. 'Well that sounds ridiculous. TheBallBlog, you're really telling me that even if someone were to literally average a triple-double over the course of a season, that someone else would win MVP, just because that someone else plays on the better team?'

Well actually, we can test that theory, because a certain someone did average a triple-double over the course of a season. In the 1961-62 season, Oscar Robertson of the Cincinnati Royals (yeah, that's right) put up 30.8 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 11.4 assists per game. Not only that, but Wilt Chamberlain of the Philadelphia Warriors (yup) averaged 38.4 points and 27.2 rebounds per game that very same year; that was also the season where Wilt unforgettably scored 100 points in a single game. Wilt's Warriors and Oscar's Royals (now Sacramento Kings, by the way) went 49-31 and 43-37 respectively, each finishing second in their respective conferences (out of only five teams back then). 

So who won MVP that year? Two of the greatest seasons ever -- how could you possibly decide? Which statistics are valued most?

The answer is simple: wins. In that very same season, the legendary Bill Russell -- who was part of 11 Celtic championships -- averaged 18.9 points and 23.6 points per game. Also amazing, but both statistics are short of what Wilt averaged, and probably not quite as impressive as Oscar's triple-double.

But there is one statistic that Russell won. The Celtics went 60-20 that year, and thus Russell won his third of five MVP awards.

Sure, that was over fifty years ago. But the phenomenon of needing a successful team to claim the Maurice Podoloff Trophy remains. There are several relevant examples that I could point to as of late -- namely the 2014-15 race where Curry edged out Harden, Westbrook, and others for his first such award. But I think the 2010-11 race best illustrates just how much a difference only a few wins can make.

Of course, LeBron James was the favorite to win that year. The undisputed best player in the world, he was coming off of two straight MVPs entering his first season in Miami; hence, his reputation seemingly would give him the benefit of the doubt should there even be any "doubt" as to who would earn the hardware that year. Though the Heat and James himself sputtered a little out of the gate, LeBron nonetheless put forth another spectacular season, albeit sub-par for his own standards: 26.7 points, 7.5 rebounds, 7.0 assists, 1.6 steals, and 0.6 blocks per game on 51.0/33.0/75.9 shooting splits. He still posted the league's top PER at 27.34.

But an emerging young point guard by the name of Derrick Rose, only 22 years old and entering just his third professional season, unexpectedly had a phenomenal year by his young standards. He averaged 25.0 points, 7.7 assists, 4.1 rebounds, 1.0 steals, and 0.6 blocks per game on 44.5/33.2/85.8 shooting splits. Still, Rose only posted the league's ninth-best PER of 23.62.

Thus one might deduce from the above information that, although he may have fumbled a little bit, it would seem like a rather routine MVP from the best player in the world. And meanwhile, some young star had a great season too -- maybe he'll even take that mantle from LeBron one day (unless, of course, his ACLs say otherwise).

Ah, but we forgot to account for one very important statistic: wins. Still, LeBron's Heat went 58-24, good for second in the East and third in the NBA overall. No problem there, right?

Unless, of course, Rose's Bulls went 62-20, good for the NBA's best record. And unless, of course, that those four wins really made that much of a difference in voters' minds.

And, of course, they did -- Rose became the league's youngest MVP ever, interrupting James' streak of 4 MVP wins in 5 years (James won two MVPs directly on both sides of the 'anomaly' in 2011).

Look, I'm not going to get into the debate (right now, at least) about whether team success should or shouldn't play such a large factor in determining an individual award -- that's in fact a completely different discussion. But the fact remains that it does indeed remain a significant factor, and it's one that Westbrook -- no matter how jaw-dropping his stats are -- will in all likelihood not be able to overcome this year in order to win his first MVP award.