The Ball Blog
  • Home
  • Articles
    • Trade Grades
    • Season Predictions: 2016
    • Power Rankings: 2015-16
    • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios
    • NBA PG's Chat >
      • Establishing Personalities, Part 2
      • Establishing Personalities, Part 1
      • Free Agency
      • Rookies
      • Season in Review
      • Champs!
      • Ganging Up
      • I'm Rooting For...
      • Finals!
      • Choked!
      • Buzzer-Beater!
      • MVP!
    • Best Case Scenarios for Playoff Teams
    • Draft Targets
    • Season Predictions: 2014-15
    • One Trade That Every Team Should Do
    • State of the Franchise
  • Teams
    • Atlantic >
      • Boston Celtics >
        • Trade Grades Celtics
        • Season Predictions 2016 Celtics
        • Power Rankings Celtics
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Celtics
        • Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams Celtics
        • Draft Targets Celtics
        • Season Predictions Celtics
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Celtics
        • State of the Franchise Celtics
      • Brooklyn Nets >
        • Trade Grades Nets
        • Season Predictions 2016 Nets
        • Power Rankings Nets
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Nets
        • Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams Nets
        • Draft Targets Nets
        • Season Predictions Nets
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Nets
        • State of the Franchise Nets
      • New York Knicks >
        • Trade Grades Knicks
        • Season Predictions 2016 Knicks
        • Power Rankings Knicks
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Knicks
        • Draft Targets Knicks
        • Season Predictions Knicks
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Knicks
        • State of the Franchise Knicks
      • Philadelphia 76ers >
        • Trade Graders 76ers
        • Season Predictions 2016 76ers
        • Power Rankings 76ers
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios 76ers
        • Draft Targets 76ers
        • Season Predictions 76ers
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do 76ers
        • State of the Franchise 76ers
      • Toronto Raptors >
        • Trade Grades Raptors
        • Season Predictions 2016 Raptors
        • Power Rankings Raptors
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Raptors
        • Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams Raptors
        • Draft Targets Raptors
        • Season Predictions Raptors
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Raptors
        • State of the Franchise Raptors
    • Central >
      • Chicago Bulls >
        • Trade Grades Bulls
        • Season Predictions 2016 Bulls
        • Power Rankings Bulls
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Bulls
        • Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams Bulls
        • Draft Targets Bulls
        • Season Predictions Bulls
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Bulls
        • State of the Franchise Bulls
        • OLD Chicago Bulls
      • Cleveland Cavaliers >
        • Trade Grades Cavaliers
        • Season Predictions 2016 Cavaliers
        • Power Rankings Cavaliers
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Cavaliers
        • Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams Cavaliers
        • Draft Targets Cavaliers
        • Season Predictions Cavaliers
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Cavaliers
        • State of the Franchise Cavaliers
      • Detroit Pistons >
        • Trade Grades Pistons
        • Season Predictions 2016 Pistons
        • Power Rankings Pistons
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Pistons
        • Draft Targets Pistons
        • Season Predictions Pistons
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Pistons
        • State of the Franchise Pistons
      • Indiana Pacers >
        • Trade Grades Pacers
        • Season Predictions 2016 Pacers
        • Power Rankings Pacers
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Pacers
        • Draft Targets Pacers
        • Season Predictions Pacers
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Pacers
        • State of the Franchise Pacers
        • OLD Indiana Pacers
      • Milwaukee Bucks >
        • Trade Grades Bucks
        • Season Predictions 2016 Bucks
        • Power Rankings Bucks
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Bucks
        • Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams Bucks
        • Draft Targets Bucks
        • Season Predictions Bucks
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Bucks
        • State of the Franchise Bucks
        • OLD Milwaukee Bucks
    • Southeast >
      • Atlanta Hawks >
        • Trade Grades Hawks
        • Season Predictions 2016 Hawks
        • Power Rankings Hawks
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Hawks
        • Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams Hawks
        • Draft Targets Hawks
        • Season Predictions Hawks
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Hawks
        • State of the Franchise Hawks
      • Charlotte Hornets >
        • Trade Grades Hornets
        • Season Predictions 2016 Hornets
        • Power Rankings Hornets
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Hornets
        • Draft Targets Hornets
        • Season Predictions Hornets
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Hornets
        • State of the Franchise Hornets
      • Miami Heat >
        • Trade Grades Heat
        • Season Predictions 2016 Heat
        • Power Rankings Heat
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Heat
        • Draft Targets Heat
        • Season Predictions Heat
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Heat
        • State of the Franchise Heat
      • Orlando Magic >
        • Trade Grades Magic
        • Season Predictions 2016 Magic
        • Power Rankings Magic
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Magic
        • Draft Targets Magic
        • Season Predictions Magic
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Magic
        • State of the Franchise Magic
      • Washington Wizards >
        • Trade Grades Wizards
        • Season Predictions 2016 Wizards
        • Power Rankings Wizards
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Wizards
        • Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams Wizards
        • Draft Targets Wizards
        • Season Predictions Wizards
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Wizards
        • State of the Franchise Wizards
    • Northwest >
      • Denver Nuggets >
        • Trade Grades Nuggets
        • Season Predictions 2016 Nuggets
        • Power Rankings Nuggets
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Nuggets
        • Draft Targets Nuggets
        • Season Predictions Nuggets
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Nuggets
        • State of the Franchise Nuggets
      • Minnesota Timberwolves >
        • Trade Grades Timberwolves
        • Season Predictions 2016 Timberwolves
        • Power Rankings Timberwolves
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Timberwolves
        • Draft Targets Timberwolves
        • Season Predictions Timberwolves
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Timberwolves
        • State of the Franchise Timberwolves
      • Oklahoma City Thunder >
        • Trade Grades Thunder
        • Season Predictions 2016 Thunder
        • Power Rankings Thunder
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Thunder
        • Draft Targets Thunder
        • Season Predictions Thunder
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Thunder
        • State of the Franchise Thunder
      • Portland Trail Blazers >
        • Trade Grades Blazers
        • Season Predictions 2016 Blazers
        • Power Rankings Blazers
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Blazers
        • Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams Blazers
        • Draft Targets Blazers
        • Season Predictions Blazers
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Blazers
        • State of the Franchise Blazers
      • Utah Jazz >
        • Trade Grades Jazz
        • Season Predictions 2016 Jazz
        • Power Rankings Jazz
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Jazz
        • Draft Targets Jazz
        • Season Predictions Jazz
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Jazz
        • State of the Franchise Jazz
    • Pacific >
      • Golden State Warriors >
        • Trade Grades Warriors
        • Season Predictions 2016 Warriors
        • Power Rankings Warriors
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Warriors
        • Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams Warriors
        • Draft Targets Warriors
        • Season Predictions Warriors
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Warriors
        • State of the Franchise Warriors
      • Los Angeles Clippers >
        • Trade Grades Clippers
        • Season Predictions 2016 Clippers
        • Power Rankings Clippers
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Clippers
        • Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams Clippers
        • Draft Targets Clippers
        • Season Predictions Clippers
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Clippers
        • State of the Franchise Clippers
      • Los Angeles Lakers >
        • Trade Grades Lakers
        • Season Predictions 2016 Lakers
        • Power Rankings Lakers
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Lakers
        • Draft Targets Lakers
        • Season Predictions Lakers
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Lakers
        • State of the Franchise Lakers
      • Phoenix Suns >
        • Trade Grades Suns
        • Season Predictions 2016 Suns
        • Power Rankings Suns
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Suns
        • Draft Targets Suns
        • Season Predictions Suns
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Suns
        • State of the Franchise Suns
      • Sacramento Kings >
        • Trade Grades Kings
        • Season Predictions 2016 Kings
        • Power Rankings Kings
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Kings
        • Draft Targets Kings
        • Season Predictions Kings
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Kings
        • State of the Franchise Kings
    • Southwest >
      • Dallas Mavericks >
        • Trade Grades Mavericks
        • Season Predictions 2016 Mavericks
        • Power Rankings Mavericks
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Mavericks
        • Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams Mavericks
        • Draft Targets Mavericks
        • Season Predictions Mavericks
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Mavericks
        • State of the Franchise Mavericks
      • Houston Rockets >
        • Trade Grades Rockets
        • Season Predictions 2016 Rockets
        • Power Rankings Rockets
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Rockets
        • Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams Rockets
        • Draft Targets Rockets
        • Season Predictions Rockets
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Rockets
        • State of the Franchise Rockets
      • Memphis Grizzlies >
        • Trade Grades Grizzlies
        • Season Predictions 2016 Grizzlies
        • Power Rankings Grizzlies
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Grizzlies
        • Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams Grizzlies
        • Draft Targets Grizzlies
        • Season Predictions Grizzlies
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Grizzlies
        • State of the Franchise Grizzlies
      • New Orleans Pelicans >
        • Trade Grades Pelicans
        • Season Predictions 2016 Pelicans
        • Power Rankings Pelicans
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Pelicans
        • Best Case Scenario For Every Playoff Team Pelicans
        • Draft Targets Pelicans
        • Season Predictions Pelicans
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Pelicans
        • State of the Franchise Pelicans
      • San Antonio Spurs >
        • Trade Grades Spurs
        • Season Predictions 2016 Spurs
        • Power Rankings Spurs
        • Best, Worst Draft Scenarios Spurs
        • Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams Spurs
        • Draft Targets Spurs
        • Season Predictions Spurs
        • One Trade That Every Team Should Do Spurs
        • State of the Franchise Spurs
  • Weekly Survey
  • Trivia
    • 1960s and Earlier >
      • 1960s-Easy
      • 1960s-Medium
      • 1960s-Hard
    • 1970s >
      • 1970s-Easy
      • 1970s-Medium
      • 1970s-Hard
    • 1980s >
      • 1980s-Easy
      • 1980s-Medium
      • 1980s-Hard
    • 1990s >
      • 1990s-Easy
      • 1990s-Medium
      • 1990s-Hard
    • 2000s >
      • 2000s-Easy
      • 2000s-Medium
      • 2000s-Hard
    • 2010s/Present >
      • 2010s-Easy
      • 2010s-Medium
      • 2010s-Hard
    • General >
      • General-Easy
      • General-Medium
      • General-Hard
    • All-time Records >
      • Records-Easier
      • Records-Harder
  • Blog
    • Evaluating NBA Teams' Drafting >
      • Outline
      • Coefficients
      • Grooming the Data Set
      • Final Rankings
    • Sizing up the 2016-17 MVP Race >
      • The Warriors
      • Familiar Faces
      • Team's Just Not Good Enough
      • The Dark Horses
      • The Man Nobody Sees Coming
    • Playoff Predictions >
      • Playoff Predictions: East
      • Playoff Predictions: West
    • This Week in Basketball...
    • Unpopular Opinions: Draft Day 2017
    • Free Agency News: 2017
  • Us
    • About Us
    • Contact Us

Evaluating NBA Teams' Drafting

Behind the Project

8/22/2017

0 Comments

 
My name is William Graif, and I am entering my senior year of high school in Westchester, NY. I fell in love with both sports, especially basketball, and numbers at a very young age, and people who know me describe me as having an "analytical mind." I do not know whether the egg or the chicken came first, but I currently hold the second overall rank in chess for 11th graders in the United States and am a two-time national champion for my age group. An official US National Master by the age of 14 (accomplished by only a few-dozen other Americans ever), I've competed in Vietnam, Turkey, Dubai, and Greece in the World Youth Chess Championships, earning 56th for Under 14-year-olds internationally in Dubai.

I could not have done this project without my partner, Patrick Walther, who is my age and lives near me; the two of us met this very summer at a fantastic summer program called the "Wharton Moneyball Academy" where we in fact learned about sports analytics from Professor Wyner, an excellent statistics professor at Wharton. Pat is as well-versed in basketball analytics as I, and even more so in baseball. In addition to invaluable advice, guidance, and consultation, he was the chief coder for this project.

- Outline
- Coefficients
- Grooming the Data Set
- Final Rankings
0 Comments

Inspiration

8/18/2017

0 Comments

 
Picture
I can't believe it took me this long to read Moneyball by Michael Lewis.

​
For someone whose life (mostly, at least) revolves around sports analytics, to not read the Holy Bible of it -- and instead only watching the cinematized film version starring Brad Pitt (still awesome) -- was simply a travesty, I now realize. Even for a basketball fan that probably couldn't even recognize half of the MLB's All-Stars this year, Moneyball was enlightening in several ways, and far and away now my favorite book of all time.

But one thing (actually, several) about it really struck me. Much of the emphasis on Billy Beane's new "Moneyball Method" was in part the transition from the subjective to the objective in player evaluation, especially when it comes to prospect scouting. The more conventional baseball scouts would say things like "he's got wheels (fast runner), a nice swing, [etc.]" whereas Paul DePodesta, Billy's right-hand man and computer geek, would say things like "he's got an on-base percentage that cracks 40%," which is apparently -- Lewis argues -- a significantly more important observation. It has since been agreed upon that Rockets GM Daryl Morey has brought Beane's analytical ways into the basketball sphere with what some call "Moreyball" and that now the transition is more or less fully complete.

But is it? Take Lonzo Ball's scouting report from this year, published by what I actually consider an excellent basketball prospect evaluator, nbadraft.net:

Picture
​You don't have to read the whole thing unless you want to, but you get the basic idea if you just glance at a few of the notes. While an incredibly detailed report written by someone who has clearly watched Lonzo play and definitely knows what he's talking about, these are the types of "arbitrary evaluations" that teams use that make Billy Beane throw chairs across rooms (read the book!). But what else can scouting departments do? It seems farfetched that college basketball statistics might actually be an accurate predictor of pro-level stats, for how can you possibly compare someone who plays in the ACC versus something like the Ivy League?

So that's ultimately the question that sparked this research project: are NBA teams, which are reliant on these "subjective" evaluations of prospects, good at selecting players or not? Lucky for those of you whose curiosity I piqued, we have an answer.

(click the link below to continue!)
Next: Outline
0 Comments

    Author

    Write something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview.

    Archives

    August 2017

    Categories

    All

    RSS Feed

Proudly powered by Weebly
© 2015 The Ball Blog