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washington wizards

Season Predictions 2016

Current seeding: 10th
Projected seeding: 10th

The Wizards I’d probably classify as the “worst of the good” out East -- that is, the worst team with a chance of making the playoffs, as they are only a few games back. Led by the ever-improving backcourt duo of superstar PG John Wall and star SG Bradley Beal, the starting five also features the young and versatile SF Otto Porter Jr, recent acquisition PF/SF Markieff Morris, and double-double machine C Marcin Gortat.

However, while the team looks excellent on paper, it hasn’t been performing well for a reason. And yes, Beal was injured for a stretch, and yes, they only recently got Morris at the trade deadline, but every team has reasonable excuses. The main purpose for the team’s struggles this season lie in rebounding, where the team ranks 29th in offensive rebounding (part of the reason why they are 22nd in offensive efficiency) and 27th in overall rebounding rate. Other than Gortat, Morris at 5.4 rebounds per game is the team’s leading rebounder, and that’s a major issue that limits your possessions per game. Rebounding will definitely be a need to address this offseason.

Trade Grades

Click here for link to Phoenix Suns Trade Grades

Wizards get: 
PF/SF Markieff Morris
Suns get: C/PF DeJuan Blair, PF Kris Humphries, 2016 protected first-rounder
 
Love the acquisition, but I don’t know about the price. It’s not the big men here that I’m concerned about: Humphries is putting up 6.4 points and 4.1 rebounds in 16.6 minutes per game, while Blair averages just 2.1 points and 2.0 rebounds in a mere 7.5 minutes per game. Rather, it’s the first-rounder that has me worrying. I’m of the philosophy, given the disasters we’ve seen with the New York teams and more, that if you are going to give up a first-rounder, you must get a sure thing in return that puts you into title contention immediately. I get that this pick is protected, so there is a chance that Washington is able to keep it, but a very risky trade nonetheless.

On the bright side, however, Markieff makes a ton of sense in Washington. Their forward rotation has been weak even back when Paul Pierce was still in town, and Markieff is just a do-it-all guy who can play perfectly off of PG John Wall and SG Bradley Beal. Morris is averaging 11.6 points and 5.2 rebounds per game, slight regressions from last season, but given the circumstances in Phoenix, not really cause for much concern.
 
Again, the only issue I have here is the risk associated with giving up a first-rounder, especially considering the fact that the Suns desperately needed to trade Markieff.
 
Grade: B-

Power Rankings​


Overall Ranking: 14th
Tier: Playoff Hopefuls
Projected Seeding: 7th in East

The entire city of Washington is daydreaming about a potential John Wall-Kevin Durant-offense, but for now (or perhaps forever, as there is absolutely no guarantee that Durant becomes a Wizards this summer) they'll just have to settle for a John Wall-offense. Which is fine. The superstar point guard can command a team at both ends of the floor, in addition to being one of the game's best passers, an excellent defender, and a solid shooter as well. His partner in crime is of course star SG Bradley Beal, who has really taken the next step, particularly on offense, as an all-around scorer. Emerging SF/SG Otto Porter Jr. is finally putting together a solid season, and looks to be the principle replacement for SF Paul Pierce, over both veteran SF Jared Dudley and rookie SF/SG Kelly Oubre Jr, who each provide key wing depth nonetheless. Backup point guards Gary Neal and Ramon Sessions only add to Washington's impressive backcourt. The talent goes downhill quickly, however, when arriving at the team's frontcourt, as C Marcin Gortat, a proficient rebounder and rim protector, is really the only quality player up front. PF/C Nene Hilario, PF Kris Humphries, and others make up a sub-par rotation of big men in the nation's capital. While the backcourt, particularly Wall and Beal, will get Washington into the playoffs, a postseason run or a high seed will be very difficult to attain without a balanced roster, which falls on the shoulders of a mediocre frontcourt​.

Trade Grades

Click here for link to Milwaukee Bucks Trade Grade

Wizards get: SF Jared Dudley
Bucks get: Protected second-round pick (from Washington)

The Wizards went a little overboard in an effort to fill the hole left by Paul Pierce at small forward this summer. Not only did they do this deal, but they also traded up to draft rookie SF Kelly Oubre Jr, while still having solid role players like SF Otto Porter Jr and SF/SG Martell Webster waiting in the wings. Still, it’s hard not to love this deal. Dudley’s $4.25 million contract fits perfectly into the trade exception from dealing away PG Andre Miller, so the money is no sweat. And Washington gave up essentially nothing in exchange, meaning this deal can only be positive. And it is, as Dudley’s 7.2 point per game with Milwaukee last year, excellent defense, and nice three-point touch will be of great use to the Wizards.

Grade: A

Major thanks to Corbin Fields (@ctuck_fields) for his significant contribution to this trade grade


Trade Grades
Click here for link to Atlanta Hawks Trade Grade

Got: #15 pick (drafted SF Kelly Oubre Jr.)
Gave up: #19 pick (turned into PG/SG Jerian Grant), two future second-rounders

This one made very little sense for the Wizards. Oubre Jr. might’ve been available at #19 anyways, and he’s a long-term prospect that could even be redundant with young SF Otto Porter Jr. Besides, for a team in the thick of a playoff race, trading up for a prospect that will probably need a year in the D-League makes little sense. Even though two future second-rounders are a small price to pay, Washington should’ve either taken PF/C Bobby Portis with their pick, or traded up for a legitimate impact player.

As mentioned, Oubre Jr. is probably a long-term project, as his ability to contribute right away is minimal. However, he is still an excellent defender with solid shooting ability. He’s quick and athletic, which give him the potential he needs to become an excellent slasher, although he will need to improve his lackluster ball-handling skills for that. He could need a year in the D-League, which is actually a pretty good measure of his very high upside long-term, considering that Washington was willing to spend the #15 pick on him. He will be competing with Porter, Paul Pierce (if he re-signs) and others for minutes at small forward.

The Wizards could’ve addressed a bigger need (power forward) with a better player immediately with PF/C Bobby Portis, who was still available at #19, all without coughing up any future second-rounders! On the other hand, however, these second-rounders are relatively worthless, and the star-studded backcourt of PG John Wall and SG Bradley Beal is young, so Washington might have some time to wait on Oubre. Still, this roster has plenty of veteran parts, and it’s just a head-scratcher as to why they’d want Oubre over any other guys that could make a more immediate impact if they were going to trade up four slots.

Grade: C+


Best/Worst Draft Scenarios

(#19 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Someone slips to #19

Let me get this straight: this is not going to happen, or at least it is extremely unlikely. We’re talking borderline top-10 talents that the Wizards will be craving here, namely PF/C Frank Kaminsky. With holes at both forward spots depending on how free agency shakes out with SF Paul Pierce, Washington needs an impact player to complement their star-studded backcourt of PG John Wall and SG Bradley Beal. Kaminsky would be beyond ideal, and so would guys like PF/C Bobby Portis. Really any of the forwards projected to go in the early and mid-teens sliding down to #18 would be a dream scenario for Washington --

whether they can immediately contribute or not. It’s unlikely, and they’ll probably have to settle for a longer-term project instead, but not impossible for a talented player to be available at #19.

Worst Case Scenario: Having to reach on likely Harrell or Hollis-Jefferson

If someone doesn’t “slip” to 19, than the Wizards would actually find themselves on the wrong edge of a tier at number 19 -- there would be a considerable drop-off in talent from #18 to #19. Needing a forward, Washington would have to pass on guards such as Jerian Grant, Tyus Jones, and R.J Hunter. Assuming they keep the pick, this would leave them looking a few spots lower on their draft board for someone who fills a need at a forward spot, and the Wizards would probably have to settle for Louisville’s PF Montrezl Harrell. He’s still an excellent player that can thrive in the right role, however. He has a high motor, is extremely energetic and athletic too, which makes up for his lack of size (6’8”) and all adds up to him being an excellent defender: combined 2.1 blocks and steals per game. His motor also helps offset his lack of size in the rebounding department as well, as he averaged 9.2 boards a game. Harrell has also begun to add a three-point shot to his arsenal, but he’s still an inconsistent shooter and has to rely more on his skillset and energy to score, something he does decently well (15.7 points per game), but again: his lack of size really limits him. Harrell is also not the best free throw shooter at just 60%. He’s talented, energetic and could complement Wall and Beal nicely, but Harrell is just too small to have a very high ceiling.



Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams


The Wizards will improve in due time, but there’s no reason that their dynamic backcourt of superstar PG John Wall and SG Bradley Beal can’t make some noise in the playoffs right now. If those two can combine for 40-plus points per game, star C Marcin Gortat can remain productive, and veteran SF Paul Pierce can do his thing, a first-round upset over the Chicago Bulls could be in store. After that, a win over the rolling Atlanta Hawks is probably a stretch, but Washington could easily make things hard on the title contenders -- a six, maybe even seven, game series. Either way, just making it to the second round has to be considered a success.

Draft Targets

Pick #19: Trey Lyles, Power Forward, Kentucky

After addressing their need for a backup point guard with the mid-season acquisition of PG Ramon Sessions from Sacramento, the Wizards will look to select one of the plethora of big men this draft has to offer, as PF Nene Hilario is the weakest player in an otherwise impressive starting five. Look no further than Trey Lyles, who boasts a high basketball I.Q, as well as a fantastic midrange jumper and face-up game for someone that’s 6’10”. He rebounds and defends well, and hasn’t even gotten a chance to fully blossom, as PF Karl Anthony-Towns is in his way. A nice pick-and-pop player, Lyles surely isn’t your traditional power forward, but would nonetheless be a quality player and fit in nicely with the Wizards’ dynamic backcourt.

Season Predictions

Regular Season: The Wizards are currently on some sort of an island at the #5 spot -- the Cavaliers at #4 are much better and farther ahead in terms of wins; the Bucks at #6 took a step back after trading PG/SG Brandon Knight recently and are considerably behind Washington on the standings anyways. As long as the Wizards maintain a steady pace, as there is really no reason it should sway either way besides star SG Bradley Beal’s impending return, their record will likely not matter as they will be the fifth seed anyways. Seems fitting for a middle playoff seed to have such a middle-esque situation.That said, superstar PG John Wall and veterans SF/PF Paul Pierce and C Marcin Gortat are not ones to take their feet off the gas pedal, and Washington should finish out the season considerably strong.

Projected Record: 47-35

Playoffs Round One
Chicago Bulls (#4) vs. Washington Wizards (#5)

The Wizards draw a tough matchup in round one, as even without a healthy superstar PG Derrick Rose, Chicago looks to be the prohibitive favorite. It’s hard to imagine PF Nene Hilario and C Marcin Gortat even coming anywhere close to winning the battle in the paint against stars PF Pau Gasol, C Joakim Noah, PF/C Taj Gibson, and more. With scoring down low not an option and the Bulls dominating the glass, Washington will be forced to resort to the three-point shot more and more often. This is something that they do not particularly excel at, as Wall is averaging less than one three per game, which should make it hard on him to score as going into the paint will not be a good option against this Bulls team. Beal is connecting on 2 threes per contest, but with premier wing defender SG/SF Jimmy Butler shutting him down, the Wizards will have an awfully tough time finding ways to put the ball in the basket. Though slightly challenged offensively without Rose, this should not be as glaring an issue for Chicago in what has all the makings of a defensive battle.

Series Prediction: Chicago wins 4-2


Trade Grades

Wizards get: PG Ramon Sessions
Kings get: PG Andre Miller

This is also a “meh” deal from Washington’s perspective, much as it is from Sacramento’s. Sessions and Miller have pretty much equal values as backup point guards, with maybe Miller holding out a slight edge. He’s averaging 3.5 points and 3 assists per game, all while connecting on a very efficient 54% of his shots. Sessions, on the other hand, is averaging 5.5 points which is two more than Miller, but on a dismal 35% shooting and also with one less assist at 2.5 assists per game. Financially, Miller has an expiring deal worth $4.6 million, while Sessions is owed about $2.1 million annually for each of the next two seasons, which are reasonable figures. Not really much of a difference, but I suppose I’d rather take Miller, depending on how my morning coffee tasted that day.

Grade: B-

One Trade That Every Team Should Do

Washington gets: SG/PG Jamal Crawford, SF Matt Barnes
Los Angeles Clippers get: SG/SF Arron Afflalo, SG Randy Foye
Denver gets: SF Otto Porter, C Kevin Seraphin, SG C.J Wilcox, Washington’s 2015 second-rounder


Finances, The Fit, and Why the other teams do it: See Los Angeles Clippers. This is a good trade for Washington that they should do as well.

State of the Franchise

Current Cap Space (before luxury tax): $8.7 million

Background: Star PG John Wall was selected first overall by the Washington Wizards in the 2010 draft, which also featured UK teammate, superstar C DeMarcus Cousins. Then in 2012, the Wizards selected SG Bradley Beal out of Florida, in a draft which also featured another Kentucky product, superstar PF/C Anthony Davis. Wall and Beal form a dynamic duo and are the future in Washington, but that doesn't mean that the Wizards aren't competitive right now. Despite losing SF Trevor Ariza in free agency last year to the Houston Rockets, he was replaced by veteran SF Paul Pierce in an offseason where Polish player C Marcin Gortat was re-signed. Though Gortat, Pierce, and other key players' ages don't really align with those of Wall and Beal, the Wizards can still be competitive right now, and also in the future when their duo improves. Speaking of the future, the Wizards are expected to go all-in for superstar SF/PF Kevin Durant in the 2016 offseason in an effort to bring him back to his hometown in the nation's capital. The rest of the league can only shiver with fear at the mere thought of Wall, Beal, and Durant playing together on the same team.

Current Financial State: This is where things aren't so hot for the Wizards. Though Washington does have a few outright steals, such as Pierce's 2 year/$11 million deal, Wall's 5 year/$80 million extension, and Beal still on the always-cheap rookie contract, the Wizards have some pretty ugly contracts in their frontcourt. For starters (no pun intended), PF Nene Hilario is nothing more than a role player, though he is due for a 2 year/$26 million contract, but that deal expiries in time for 2016. Gortat's most recent contract probably represents the biggest issue on this team, as he was signed for a 5 year/$60 million deal. $12 million annually is by no means an overpayment for the "Polish Hammer", but 5 years is much too long for someone who is turning 31 momentarily. He may be worth $12 million this year and next, but what about the year after that? And the year after that? And the year after that? In addition, the contract has increasing cap hits, starting at $10.4 million this year and ending at $13.6 million in 2019, so by the time 2016 rolls around, having Gortat’s deal on the books could be a major turn-off when trying to lure "KD" back home. However, Washington could have up to $50 million in available cap space that offseason, as Wall and Gortat are the only contracts through that season. Next season, however, they will likely have less than $10 million to spend, as they have $68 million already committed. Despite some pretty bad contracts, Washington does have some good ones to balance them, and they will also have enough cap space to build a title contender in the stacked 2016 free agency.  

Targets: The Wizards, currently at well above .500 and fourth in the weak Eastern Conference, could still use another piece to push them over the top, as more success now equates to a better pitch to Durant come 2016. With Pierce aging fast and Nene being probably the weakest player in the starting 5,  Washington will likely look to target a player on the right side of 30 who can shift between either of the forward spots, while having a contract that expires before 2016. Check, check and check for SF/PF Wilson Chandler, who the Denver Nuggets have been reportedly shopping in exchange for prospects and draft picks to rebuild around. The Wizards can certainly offer this, as second-year SF Otto Porter Jr has been waiting in the wings for quite some time, first playing behind Ariza and now Pierce as well as SF/SG Martell Webster, never really getting a chance to shine. That would not be the case in Denver, where the Nuggets are shopping their veterans in an effort to hand over the reins of the franchise to the younger guys. To make the finances of the deal work, Washington must also add the cheap expiring contract of role player PF Drew Gooden, as well as probably a second-round pick to get Denver to pull the trigger. Turning towards this upcoming free agency, the Wizards have just about no key players coming off the books. The only even remotely impact player who is a free agent this year for the Wizards is backup PG Andre Miller, who's a serviceable backup point guard, especially when John Wall is your starter. However, if the Wizards want to take the next step, they will need to sign a better backup for Wall. Veteran PG Jameer Nelson, oddly also on the Nuggets right now, certainly fits the bill. Trying to add him into the Wilson Chandler trade, however, would not make sense, as the Wizards can simply sign him in free agency this year instead of actually giving something up for him, among other reasons. The Nuggets will likely have little to no interest in bringing back the 33 year old, because as mentioned above, they are rebuilding around their younger players. Because of the likely lack of desire to keep him around, Nelson will probably decline his $3.25 million player option next season with the Nuggets. Though his best years are behind him, Nelson has to be considered one of the best backup floor generals in the whole league. Washington will only sign him for one year in order to maximize cap space for 2016, and he is due for a contract in the $4 million range. By adding Chandler and Nelson, the Wizards could really push themselves over the top.

The Fit: PG Jameer Nelson would be an instant upgrade over PG Andre Miller backing up Wall, though it may be tough for the Wizards to hand Nelson the minutes he deserves. After all, Nelson is averaging 7.5 points, 4.5 assists, 1.5 threes, and one steal in 23 minutes per game, hardly numbers that scream backup, especially to a star like John Wall. However, Nelson could provide value along with Paul Pierce as just a veteran leader who’s also a proven winner, and could even become a sort of coach for Wall and Beal. Either way, Nelson is always there to run the second unit and can step up as a starting point guard any time should Wall go down with an injury. SF/PF Wilson Chandler, on the other hand, would instantly have a starting spot carved out for him. At just 27 years old and in the prime of his career, Chandler is easily capable of handling a large amount of minutes, which is more than either Pierce or Nene can say. In terms of the starting lineup, Chandler would probably start at power forward, something he is capable of doing at 6’8”, which would send Nene to the bench. However, Nene would probably come in as a sixth man, while Chandler can shift nicely back to his more natural position at small forward, kicking Pierce off the court. Along with Wall and Beal, Chandler would become one of the main scoring options along with Wall and Beal, averaging 14 ppg this year, which would be good for third-highest on the team. Chandler is also chipping in 6 rebounds and 2 threes a game, quality numbers for a guy getting paid $7 million annually over the next two years, especially with a nice team option on year two. Chandler addresses a need for Washington, and could come in and make an immediate impact for a relatively low asking price, given the Nuggets' seemingly strong desire to rid themselves of veteran pieces. Chandler could be the piece to really push the Wizards to one of the East's elite teams, and could bring the exact kind of success they need to lure Durant back home in 2016.


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