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utah jazz

Season Predictions 2016

Current seeding: 8th

Projected seeding: 9th

The intense battle for the final couple playoff spots out West -- between Portland, Dallas, Houston, and Utah -- could likely very well be decided by strength of schedule. It’s hard to imagine a team being led by superstar SG James Harden and star C Dwight Howard will end up missing the playoffs, and Portland already has a few-game cushion over the rest of the field. Thus the only team that the Jazz really have a shot at could be Dallas, but the remaining schedules aren’t looking so great: Utah has dates scheduled with LAC, SA, GSW, HOU, OKC, and CHI remaining on their short schedule, whereas Dallas’ only really tough matchups are against CLE, and GSW (twice), with many cupcakes along the way as well. Couple that with the Mavs finally being at full health, and you realize that it hardly matters whether or not Utah has a superior roster. Life just isn’t fair.

Not to fear, Salt Lake, for this is an incredibly promising young group that is bound to be back. This year was proof that the PF Derrick Favors-C Rudy Gobert as an offense-defense sort of thing truly does work. Also, this was another year of improvement from star SG/SF Gordon Hayward and his wing running-mate, SG/SF Rodney Hood. Yes, SG Alec Burks’ season-ending injury was unfortunate, and yes, the point guard position is still a mess -- both Trey Burke and Raul Neto failed to impress -- but this team still has the pieces to be a legitimate contender in no time flat. Just not yet.

Trade Grades

Click here for link to Atlanta Hawks Trade Grades
Click here for link to Chicago Bulls Trade Grades

Hawks get: 
SG Kirk Hinrich
Jazz get: PG Shelvin Mack
Bulls get: SG Justin Holiday, second-rounder (via Utah)

I mean, why not? PG Trey Burke has been injured and underwhelming, Raul Neto certainly shares the latter trait, while PG/SG Dante Exum and SG/PG Alex Burks obviously share the former trait. The truth is, despite all this potential in the backcourt, it was clear that Utah could use an extra guard, especially considering the fact that they are barely clinging to the final playoff spot out West at 26-26. Mack was a fine solution, averaging 5.4 points, 2.8 assists, and 0.7 threes in just 15 minutes per game thus far, buried behind PG's Dennis Schroder and Jeff Teague in Atlanta. His expiring $2.4 million contract is also of no concern. The Jazz did well here to address a need in a very cost-efficient manner.

Grade: A-

Power Rankings

Overall Ranking: 17th
Projected Seeding: 9th in West
Tier: Playoff Hopefuls

What was once just a "young team" is now rather a "team on the rise", as in Utah has now taken the next step. SF/SG Gordon Hayward and PF/C Derrick Favors are now legitimate stars, and breakout C Rudy Gobert only adds to the team's star power. The loss of PG/SG Dante Exum definitely hurts, but PG Trey Burke should be able to handle a full-time starting role at this point. Other key role players include SG Alec Burks on the wing and PF Trey Lyles up front, but there is a lack of depth on this team overall as you go deeper in the rotation. While emerging stars and other quality players should be more than enough to at the very least keep this team in the playoff hunt, the lack of depth and sheer quality of the West I predict to be just barely too much for the Jazz to overcome.

Best/Worst Draft Scenarios

(#12 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Drafting PF/C Myles Turner (Texas, Freshman)

The Jazz, after dealing away C Enes Kanter a the deadline for another first-rounder, need to grab a big body down low at number 12. No matter how promising the young frontcourt duo of PF/C Derrick favors and C Rudy Gobert looked, there is little depth behind them and Gobert is still relatively unproven, so drafting a big man is a must. The Jazz can go several ways here: I’m sure Frank Kaminsky will get a look should he be available, as will Trey Lyles, but none have more upside than Texas’ Myles Turner. Turner is a rare breed -- he can defend the rim and block shots (an outstanding 2.6 per game) and stretch the defense with a rapidly developing midrange and three-point game. A solid rebounder as well, Turner grabbed 6.5 per game as well as shooting 45.5% from the field and an extremely impressive 84% from the charity stripe. He’s not as great of a scorer down-low as you would like (10 ppg), but that’s not what Utah needs him to do anyways. He will take some time to develop, but the Jazz don’t need him to come in and start right away. Instead, they have the luxury of grooming him on the bench for a couple years and to later reap the rewards for their patience.

Worst Case Scenario: Not drafting a big man

It’s easy for the Jazz to see the success that the Favors and Gobert duo had after Kanter was traded last season, and perhaps look elsewhere in the draft. Utah has selected points guards with their past two picks -- Trey Burke and Dante Exum. It’s quite possible that they can see the slightly disappointing production from these two, and make a horrible mistake of taking a point guard: Cameron Payne, Jerian Grant, or Tyus Jones. On the other hand, Utah could also look to the wing, decide that SF Rodney Hood, SG Alec Burks, and others just aren’t getting it done as star SG/SF Gordon Hayward shuffles from both spots, and take another wing player: Kelly Oubre Jr. or Devin Booker, for instance. This would also be a mistake, as there is more than enough depth on the wing surrounding Hayward. Where there is not enough depth, however, is up front, and the Jazz must change that. Whether it’s Turner, or even someone like Trey Lyles, Frank Kaminsky, or Bobby Portis, adding an extra body off the bench is a must for Utah in this draft.

Draft Targets

Pick #11: Kevon Looney, Power Forward, UCLA

If the teams were drafting solely off of upside, Looney would be a top 5 pick. However, they’re not and Looney is a long-term project for any team that takes him, which is the reason why he falls this late. However, a young team like the Jazz can afford to wait, and as long as the light at the end of the tunnel is blinding, they will. Looney is a fantastic rebounder already, in addition to having a nice feel for the pick and roll on offense. Though only taking 1.5 a game, Looney is averaging a ridiculous 46% on three pointers, and could be a dangerous inside-out threat in the pros. He’s a solid defender as well, and considering the Jazz’s lack of depth up front after dealing away C Enes Kanter, makes for a nice selection for Utah here.

Season Predictions

Regular Season: If they played in the East, things would likely be different for this young Jazz team, but unfortunately for them that’s not the case. This is a young team with potential, with a couple of stars in SF/SG Gordon Hawyward and PF/C Derrick Favors leading the way. However, in an ultra-competitive Western Conference, Utah is better off losing games rather than winning them down the stretch. The playoffs will come in due time, but not this year.

Projected Record: 33-49, 11th in West


Trade Grades

Jazz get: PF Grant Jerrett, C Kendrick Perkins, C Tibor Pleiss Oklahoma City’s 2017 first-rounder
Pistons get: PG Reggie Jackson
Thunder get: PG D.J Augustin, C Enes Kanter, SF/SG Kyle Singler, PF Steve Novak

Solid value for Kanter here. Despite having major defensive issues and a payday coming at season’s end, the rebuilding Jazz managed to snag a first-rounder from the Thunder, though it is in 2017. He will be replaced by productive C Rudy Gobert, who the front office has been favoring over Kanter for awhile now. More depth up front is still necessary, and as no newcomers really figure to help that issue much long-term, the draft is the place to look for this rebuilding Utah team. And this pick will go towards doing that, all while not having to pay Kanter this summer as he hits restricted free agency.

Grade: B+

One Trade That Every Team Should Do

Utah gets: C Zaza Pachulia, Milwaukee’s 2015 second-rounder, Milwaukee’s 2016 second-rounder
Milwaukee gets: C/PF Enes Kanter

Finances, The Fit, and Why the other team does it: See Milwaukee.

State of the Franchise

Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $27 million

Background: The rebuild was predictable when the Jazz traded PG Deron Williams to the then-New Jersey Nets, now Brooklyn, in 2011. The year before, PF Carlos Boozer had left to Chicago. But when the Jazz let PF Paul Millsap and C Al Jefferson, their two star big men, walk in free agency of 2013, it was evident that they were looking for a fresh start. They built around young SG/SF Gordon Hayward, who they drafted 9th overall in the 2010 NBA Draft, right after grabbing PF Derrick Favors 3rd overall. In 2013, Favors and the Jazz agreed to a 4 year/$49 million extension, a reasonable deal for a young, emerging player like Favors. This past offseason, Hayward was a hotly pursued restricted free agent, but Utah ultimately matched Charlotte's max offer sheet. The past two drafts, the Jazz have selected point guards in the first round, Trey Burke in 2013 and Dante Exum in 2014. Burke had an average rookie season, showing more promise towards the end, but has yet to show much star potential so far this year. Exum, the youngest player in the NBA, still has a lot of time to develop into the athletic two-way guard they were looking for when they drafted him. With Hayward and Favors enjoying career seasons, Utah hopes to be able to push for the playoffs soon enough.

Current Financial State: Although they are still considered a rebuilding team, Utah has two players quickly rising into stardom and they've had to pay them big money. Hayward has a 4 year/$63 million max contract and Favors is on a 4 year/$49 million deal. Both players have more than earned their money but the rest of the team needs to catch up. Utah cannot afford to tank because they are paying two players a lot of money right now. Fortunately for them, all of their other key pieces are still on rookie deals, but they have yet to produce enough to make those deals look like a steal. It's a bit of an odd situation for Utah to have two stars and the remainder of the team young players, but they'll need to work with what they have. As time goes on, Hayward and Favors will be due for bigger contracts so the Jazz must take advantage of the present, and hope that their players develop quickly enough to start winning before Hayward or Favors decides to leave.

Targets: With nobody likely of interest to Utah in free agency, they could be targeting PG Michael Carter-Williams of the Philadelphia 76ers via a trade. The Sixers have reportedly put him on the block and are looking to trade him. The reigning Rookie of the Year has put up great stats across the board, contributing in points, assists, rebounds, and steals, but has had a horrible year shooting the ball, connecting on less than 40% of his shots this year. Although Utah has drafted point guards with their past two first round picks, it is still their weakest position. With Hayward at SF, Favors at PF, SG’s Alec Burks and Rodney Hood at the two, and Enes Kanter and Rudy Gobert rotating at C, point guard remains their biggest hole. With the amount of money being paid to Hayward and Favors, Utah will be looking to turn things around soon and MCW could be the answer. Still on his rookie contract, the money will be easy to match because of Utah's plethora of rookie deals. The trade would most likely be Carter-Williams for Exum, rookie SG/SF Rodney Hood, and a pair of second round picks. The Sixers had previously shown interest in dealing the second year guard for Exum on draft day, so trading for Exum now makes sense for them.

The Fit: MCW fits in nicely with Utah. He can run the offense along with Hayward, and provide scoring as well. He also plays good on ball defense and can guard other star guards well. The main quality he brings, however, is his competitiveness. Playing on a losing team for such a long time certainly makes him want to win. His talent and motivation should really boost a Utah team that has been losing as well, but hopes to turn it around and start a winning tradition. He fills in their need at point guard and brings the intangibles a young team needs to start having a winning record. Trading for Carter-Williams could be the fresh start to the good, new things that the Jazz have needed.

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