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toronto raptors

Season Predictions 2016
 
Current seeding: 2nd
Projected seeding: 2nd
 
Their odds of catching Cleveland for the one-spot are slim, but that is not to take away anything from this incredible season. Everything has just seemed to click for Toronto: you’d think it was because of the astute signing of SF DeMarre Carroll, but the team’s surge has largely coincided with Carroll’s latest injury. Rather, it is the ever-reliable star guard duo of PG Kyle Lowry and SG/SF DeMar DeRozan leading the way, with the two dominating all-around and averaging a combined 45+ points per game. There has also been all-around improvement amongst the duo’s supporting cast, with a deep bench that allows head coach Dwane Casey to play nine players a night, easy. They may not get the one-seed, but the Raptors are clearly a force to be reckoned with, especially with the impending return of SF DeMarre Carroll.
 
1st round: Detroit Pistons (7)
 
This is actually a tougher matchup for Toronto than the seeding would suggest: after the acquisition of PF/SF Tobias Harris at the trade deadline, Detroit now boasts an impressive starting five of PG Reggie Jackson, SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SF/PF Marcus Morris, Harris, and C Andre Drummond. That starting five has a little bit of everything: from perimeter defenders that could hold Lowry and DeRozan in check on some nights, to interior defenders and rebounders (Drummond), to plenty of scoring options to the point where this is a very dangerous matchup for Toronto and likely a trendy upset pick. However, a key area where I see the Raptors having an unquestionable edge is bench scoring. Toronto ranks seventh in the league in bench play and have 6 bench players putting up at least 5 ppg, while their counterparts rank 27th in bench play and have only three such players. The Raptors have the upper-hand both at the top, with Lowry and DeRozan putting up over 21.5+ ppg compared to Detroit’s top scorer, Jackson, having just 19.2. As Toronto appears to have the scoring advantage both at the top and bottom, I have to give them the edge here.
 
Prediction: Toronto wins, 4-2
 
2nd round: Atlanta Hawks (6)
 
Atlanta’s defense has been very impressive as of late, but most of that has been due to the interior defense of PF Paul Millsap and C Al Horford. While this should pose issues for Lowry and DeRozan in terms of driving to the rim, you can count on the duo to find other ways to score, as Lowry, for instance, is also a prolific three-point shooter. Permitted the scoring is there from the backcourt and the second unit also gives a nice boost, all it really comes down to is limiting Millsap and Horford’s touches inside, something that Toronto’s mostly-capable bigs can handle.
 
Prediction: Toronto wins, 4-2
 
3rd round (Eastern Conference Finals): Cleveland Cavaliers (1)
 
With all due respect to Atlanta’s 2015 team, of which there is a great deal of, Cleveland’s road to the finals will be no cakewalk this season, I can guarantee you that. A 4-0 sweep in the ECF is most definitely not in store, not if Lowry, DeRozan, and Co. have anything to say about it. There is actually no evident statistical advantage that Cleveland has: Toronto ranks 4th in offensive efficiency and 13th in defensive, while the Cavs are 5th and 8th, respectively. Rather, I believe the issue for the Raptors will be the fact that there is simply too much to worry about on defense. Can Carroll maybe slow down LeBron a little bit on some nights? Okay, but it’s very difficult to imagine him averaging less than 25 points per game in the series, as is it hard to envision Carroll being able to do it all on his own. Double-teaming LeBron, especially with a big man, only makes a bad problem worse: Toronto’s matchup inside against big men such as Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson, Timofey Mozgov already does not bode well for them on either end of the court. Bringing in a guard only leaves shooters like SG J.R Smith open, or even worse: PG Kyrie Irving. What you really need to slow Cleveland down is an elite perimeter defender and interior defender, as well as five quick guys on the floor that work cohesively together with their rotations. Not quite impossible, but ridiculously difficult, and while the pieces are more or less in place for Toronto to give LeBron and Co. a hard time, the lack of playoff experience on this team will essentially just be the nail in the coffin.
 
Prediction: Cleveland wins, 4-2

Trade Grades

Click here for link to Milwaukee Bucks Trade Grade

Bucks get: PG/SG Greivis Vasquez
Raptors get: #46 pick (SG/SF Norman Powell), protected 2017 first-rounder

After selecting PG/SG Delon Wright into an already overcrowded backcourt, even more so if reigning Sixth Man of the Year SG/PG Louis Williams returns via free agency, the Raptors needed to trade away a guard. Vasquez seemed to be the odd one out, and Toronto got excellent value for the tall backup. For a team that’s in the thick of the playoffs year in and year out, acquiring future draft picks is questionable, but failing to receive the correct type of value can only overshadow the sheer value itself so much.

Vasquez is on an expiring $6.6 million deal, and that could’ve been a major motive for this trade as well for the Raptors: creating more cap space, as they now project to be significant players in free agency. The 28 year old’s stats were very similar in his two years in Toronto, and he knocked down 1.6 threes on a very efficient 38% shooting from downtown, as part of 9.5 points and 3.7 assists per game. He also boasts an imposing frame for a point guard at 6’6”, and is a solid defender in addition to being a knockdown shooter. He can also run the second unit for almost any team. However, with so much depth at both guard positions, the Venezuelan won’t be missed too much in Toronto.

Powell is as athletic as they come. He has ridiculous length, is an explosive leaper, and is very quick. You know what that all adds up to: you guessed it, highlight-reel dunks. Everywhere. All the time. However, while those are great from an entertainment perspective, they only translate to two basketball points. And although he’s a solid defender, Powell will need to improve his jump shot for him to see much NBA action. He will be a backup behind star SG/SF DeMar DeRozan.

Yes, of course the Raptors don’t need any more future assets right now. Still, a first-rounder is a first-rounder, and $6.6 million of extra cap space during free agency is $6.6 million of extra cap space during free agency and is very key. Powell will just be a low-end role player and maybe an entertainer off the bat, but could have upside long-term. The first-rounder could also be put towards a future trade, and to take a page out of the 76ers’ playbook: value itself almost always trumps the accuracy of the type of value.


Best/Worst Draft Scenarios

(#20 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Shipping the pick to Denver for PF Kenneth Faried

The Raptors need big men, that much is clear even before three of their key frontcourt pieces hit free agency this offseason. Taking a guy like Harrell (who projects to be like Faried but will need a few years to get there) only solves this problem somewhat, and so does Portis even if he falls to them, as the Raptors want more immediate impact as a playoff team. Enter Faried, a high-energy big man who can grab rebounds in bunches. This is exactly what the Raptors need, considering that most of their offense comes from their star guard duo of PG Kyle Lowry and SG/SF DeMar DeRozan with a ton of depth behind them both. Faried’s insane motor offsets his lack of size and helps him to be a fantastic defender, which can allow promising young C Jonas Valanciunas more opportunity to grow offensively while still forming a formidable defensive and rebounding duo while Lowry and DeRozan light up the scoreboards. This makes Faried a perfect fit in Toronto. The Nuggets would be all over this trade idea as they look to ship off their veterans in order to stockpile more future assets in an effort to hand the reins of their franchise over to their young core. Though there might need to be a sweetener (SG Terrence Ross?) to get Denver to pull the trigger, this deal makes a ton of sense for both sides and is a much better use of their pick than drafting a player for the Raptors.

Worst Case Scenario: Settling for PF/C Christian Wood

 Not finding a trade partner is already a tiny bit bad, but having the wrong guys fall to them is even worse. The Raptors need a big man that can contribute, and in the unlikely event that Portis and Harrell are gone by #20, that itch will remain unscratched (at least until free agency). The only option at that point would be UNLV’s PF/C Christian Wood. You could consider him a steal this late in the draft, but only if you’re a team that has time to wait for a prospect to develop and does NOT have star SG DeMar DeRozan hitting free agency last year. Rats, that doesn’t apply for Toronto. Wood is an excellent rebounder and defender, averaging 10.0 rebounds and 2.7 blocks per game, albeit against weaker competition than most of these prospects. However, despite being very athletic and averaging 15.7 points per game as well, he still needs to add a lot of muscle and strength. That doesn’t happen overnight, and neither does the playing style adjustments that go with it. Therefore, Wood could be an excellent player long-term, but in terms of a playoff team that needs to win now to please DeRozan, would not be the best choice. 

Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams

The Raptors will go as far as their backcourt can take them. It consists of PG Kyle Lowry, SG DeMar DeRozan, as well as PG/SG Lou Williams off the bench. If the trio is performing and Toronto is receiving production elsewhere, such as from C Jonas Valanciunas, a berth to the Eastern Conference Finals -- which includes an upset to the Cleveland Cavaliers on the way there -- could be in store. There, they will meet the Atlanta Hawks, but the Hawks have never met scorers like Lowry and Derozan on their own team. If the two cannot be contained and can also receive help on defense slowing down Atlanta’s ridiculous ball movement and three-point shooting, Toronto could inch by the Hawks to the finals, but that’s about as far as their duo can take them.

Draft Targets


Pick #21: Justin Andersen, Small Forward, Virginia

Toronto could go with a big man like Wood here, but I like Andersen’s fit. One of the best three-point shooters in the country, Andersen is knocking down 2 per game on a ridiculous 47% from long range as part of his 12 points. He’s an excellent defender as well as being a solid rebounder too, and a dynamic backcourt with PG Kyle Lowry and SG DeMar DeRozan could certainly use a “3 and D’ complementary piece.

Season Predictions

Regular Season: The Raptors are defying odds somewhat yet again, as they compete for the #2 seed in the East as the regular season winds down. Led by one of the better backcourt duos in the league with stars PG Kyle Lowry and SG/SF DeMar DeRozan, Toronto also features many other key players in propelling them to their current stance. They look to beat out Cleveland and Chicago for the spot behind Atlanta in terms of seeding out East. This seems likely, as Chicago recently lost superstar PG Derrick Rose to yet another injury (prayers to him), while the Cavaliers continue to sort out some chemistry issues and may even rest their starters towards the end of the regular season. The pieces are all there for Toronto to one-up themselves from their #3 seed last year.

Projected Record: 53-27

Playoffs Round One
Toronto Raptors (#2) vs. Miami Heat (#7)

This is actually a much closer matchup than the seeds indicate. Toronto is inches away from falling to #4, while the Heat could easily be that high if they weren’t constantly ravaged by injuries throughout the season. Unfortunately for Miami, those injuries lead into the playoffs, as superstar PF/C Chris Bosh is out for the season with scary blood clots on his lungs (prayers to him). Still, their backcourt featuring stars PG/SG Goran Dragic and SG/PG Dwyane Wade should make for a very interesting battle with Lowry and DeRozan, as the two best guard duos in the league (not named “The Splash Brothers”) go at it. Miami might have a little bit of an edge in that department actually, just due to their advantage in playoff experience and especially for the three-time champion Wade, but I’ll say they cancel out. The Heat’s small forward, Luol Deng, has plenty of playoff experience from his days as a Chicago Bull and is superior to whatever combination of SF/PF James Johnson and SG/SF Terrence Ross the Raptors can throw at him. Up front, Miami lacks depth at power forward after injuries to Bosh and backup PF Josh McRoberts, but still has the emerging star C Hassan Whiteside. Though Raptors C Jonas Valunciunas matches up well with Whiteside, this is more than enough to cover for Miami’s lack of a power forward. The Heat do have plenty of new additions on their roster and actually lack some chemistry compared to Toronto, but make it up with a considerable edge in playoff experience. Toronto is absolutely capable of winning this series, as they have home court advantage as well as a few others, such as Wade’s shaky knees. However, as the Brooklyn Nets showed last year, if you have the playoff experience, despite the age, you can beat the Raptors. A thrilling series to watch, no doubt, but I believe Miami can pull off the upset. Toronto will be back next year, and you can bet Lowry will be hungry to capture that elusive playoff win.

Series Prediction: Miami wins 4-3


One Trade That Every Team Should Do

Toronto gets: PF/SF Thaddeus Young
Timberwolves get: SG/SF Landry Fields, PF Tyler Hansbrough, Raptors’ 2015 first-rounder


Finances: Thank goodness Fields’ contract is expiring, as that $8.5 million on the last year of his deal is pretty ugly. Hansbrough, at $3.3 million, is also playing on the final year of his contract. Young is not, as he is due for a total of $18.9 million over the next two seasons. Fields and Hansbrough are just cap-fillers, as the main prize for the quality forward’s services is the first-rounder.

The Fit: Young is a lockdown defender, either inside or on the perimeter, that the Raptors have been craving for quite some time. While PG Kyle Lowry and SG/SF DeMar DeRozan provide most of the scoring, and C Jonas Valanciunas anchors the defense, Toronto lacks a do-it-all defender, despite Valanciunas’ presence. Averaging 14.5 points, 5 rebounds, and 2 steals per game, Young also provides a bit of a low-post game for Toronto on the offensive end, though he lacks a reliable outside shot. He could be the missing piece for Toronto to make a deep playoff run.

Why the other team does it: As a rebuilding team looking to develop their younger players, it makes sense for Minnesota to continue to ship out their veterans in exchange for future asstes. They do just that here, while taking on no long-term money. Losing Young will allow someone like PF/Sf Anthony Bennett to be exposed to more playing time. The first-rounder will simply go towards the huge stack of picks that the Timberwolves continue to stockpile.

State of the Franchise

Current Cap Space (before luxury tax): $28.6 million

Background: After superstar PF/C Chris Bosh departed to the Miami Heat in the hectic summer of 2010, when the Heat formed a “Big Three” of Bosh, franchise player SG Dwyane Wade, and now 4-time MVP SF/PF LeBron James, the Raptors were left in another rebuilding phase. General Manager and mastermind Masai Ujiri chose to retool around SG/SF DeMar DeRozan, selected with the ninth overall pick in the 2009 draft. In the span of the two years after Bosh left, Ujiri wasted little time rebuilding his team. He flipped a first-rounder for now-franchise PG Kyle Lowry and drafted both C Jonas Valanciunas and SG Terrence Ross. The most notable move Ujiri made, however, was dealing away the horrible-defending, inefficient-shooting, injury-prone, and overpaid PF/C Andrea Bargnani to the New York Knicks for several draft picks. The mastermind continued to clear even more cap space by dealing away the large contract of star SF Rudy Gay in exchange for cheaper role players with the Sacramento Kings just 18 games into the season, where the Raptors went just 6-12. However, immediately following the trade, the Raptors went on a 10-2 run and finished the season with the third-best record in the East, though they lost to the Brooklyn Nets in an intense seven-game series in the first round. Now, led mainly by their All-Star backcourt duo of Lowry and DeRozan, as well as by the genius of Masai Ujiri of course, the Raptors find themselves in second place in the weak Eastern Conference, light years above anyone else in the Atlantic Division, and look to make a deep run in the playoffs this year.

Current Financial State: Try imagining a new color. Now try imagining a bad contract playing under Masai Ujiri. Can’t do it, right? Maybe the two are a little unrelated, but you get my point. Ujiri is simply too genius to hand anybody a bad contract, even with the recent wave of bad deals gleefully negotiated by the incredible agents in the NBA nowadays. PF Patrick Patterson is the closest thing the Raptors have to a bad contract, as he’s due for $18 million over the next three years, though with averages of 9 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 1.5 threes on efficient shooting in 26.5 minutes per game, that money is hardly an overpayment. One can make the same case for 6’6” PG/SG Greivis Vasquez, though the Spaniard is pretty much justifying his contract with averages of 10 points, 3.5 assists, and 1.5 threes in 23 minutes a game. Star PG Kyle Lowry is fresh off what was thought to be a reasonable 4 year/$48 million extension, but he is now looking like an outright steal. DeRozan is due just $9.5 million annually over the next three seasons, though the third year is a player option which he’s bound to decline. Meanwhile, key players C Jonas Valanciunas and SG Terrence Ross are both on their rookie deals, and we know how cheap those are. Landry Fields, Amir Johnson, Chuck Hayes, Louis Williams, Marcus Camby, and Tyler Hansbrough’s contracts will all come off the books this year, saving the Raptors roughly $34 million in their combined contracts. These point to some potential cap issues in the past, but next season, the Raptors will have just $48.2 million committed, giving them about $30 million in cap space available, while still keeping most of their key players. The Raptors, while only paying 2/3 of the salary cap, could practically still compete for the Eastern Conference title next year (only slightly exaggerating).

Targets: While having their backcourt set with a rotation that features Ross, Vasquez and Williams playing behind stars Lowry and DeRozan, as well as the center position secured by Valanciunas, the Raptors must address their glaring hole at power forward. Considering who they have in their backcourt, offense isn’t really necessary. However, a defensive stud who can also grab rebounds and serve as the third scoring option makes sense, and PF/SF Thaddeus Young fits the bill. There are other players who Ujiri could target, of course, most notably Bulls PF Taj Gibson, and that’s not even talking about free agency. However, if the Raptors want a decent deal for immediate impact from a power forward with the aforementioned qualities, Young is their guy. The Minnesota Timberwolves, Young’s current team, are trying to deal away their veteran pieces in an effort to rebuild and give their younger guys more minutes, and the 26 year old’s name is at the top of the chopping block. The Raptors, as touched on above, have plenty of large expiring contracts to make this deal work, as well as all of their future picks and other teams’ picks as well. The Raptors could package the expiring contracts of little-used role players SG Landry Fields and PF Tyler Hansbrough in exchange for Thaddeus Young, as the Timberwolves have no interest in winning right now anyways. Of course, the Raptors would also have to send a draft pick, probably a first-rounder this year, but it’s not that valuable to them as their slot likely will not even fall in the top 20. For Minnesota, the expiring contracts of Hansrbough and Fields are only there for just that: they’re expiring, and they will not play many minutes for the Timberwolves this season, nor will they likely ever do so again. This move frees up cap space for Minnesota, and the loss of Thaddeus Young is actually beneficial for a rebuilding franchise like the Timberwolves, as it causes them to lose more games, thereby giving themselves an even better chance at nabbing the number one pick. Of course, the main motivation for the team is the first-rounder, late is it may be, as the Timberwolves want all the prospects they can get. Even if they trade for Young, however, the Raptors would still have a hole to fill at the other forward spot, and would still have the money to address it. However, just about all of the good forwards in this year’s relatively weak free agent class are likely to stick around with their current teams, and trading away even more future assets for another forward doesn’t make sense with such a young core. Instead, the Raptors can simply add Young and work with what they have, knowing they will have the cap space to sign an impact forward in 2016. For Toronto, they can fill a need right now with this trade, while doing so in Masai Ujiri’s signature style: with a very reasonable 2 years/$19 million left on Young’s contract.

The Fit: As mentioned, Young provides an instant solution for the Raptors’ need for a forward, a power forward in particular, but he also fits in with Lowry (28), DeRozan (25), and Ross’ (24) age at 26 years old. Averaging 2 steals a game this year and boasting a 6’8”, 220 pound frame with a 7’0” wingspan, Young is a very capable defender who can provide nightmares for opposing offenses when paired next to Valanciunas inside. He can also slide over to small forward, where his superior length and size can pester shooters on the perimeter. Young also rebounds solidly for his position, averaging 5.5 a game over his career. He can also become a great third option behind Lowry and DeRozan on offense, though he lacks outside shooting, as he provides Toronto with a solid post-up game that they haven’t had since Chris Bosh. A career 49.5% shooter, Young is sure to not become Rudy Gay 2.0, who jacked up shots at a very inefficient clip, taking away looks from Lowry, DeRozan and others, and whose departure led to a 10-2 record in the following 12 games. Though Toronto can wait until free agency to address its need for a defensive ace at the forward spots, Young can provide instant impact at a low asking price, and could be just what the Raptors need to secure their first playoff series victory since 2001.

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