Season Predictions 2016
Current seeding: 2nd
Projected seeding: 2nd
Who here remembers the 2014 Spurs title team,? The one who rebounded from a devastating finals loss to Miami in the prior year, only to go a league-best 62-20 (0.756), dominate the playoffs, and get sweet revenge against the Heat to the tune of a 4-1 series victory? That team?
Well, guess what: nothing has happened to it. Every single key player from that squad remains on the team today, sans maybe backups PG Cory Joseph and SG Marco Belinelli. The key changes between now and then, however, are not subtractions, rather they are additions. PF David West, PG Andre Miller, SG Kevin Martin and more have all further bolstered a bench that was already probably the best in the league; that’s not even to mention the transformation of SF Kawhi Leonard into a superstar. The greatest addition, however, is of course star PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge, lured from Portland in free agency this past summer. Aldridge has fit in nicely with San Antonio as the beta dog for Leonard at 18 points and 8 rebounds per game. You could argue that dinosaurs PF/C Tim Duncan, PG Tony Parker, and SG Manu Ginobili have declined since 2014, but let’s be honest: Duncan ages like fine wine, and Parker and Ginobili are still very solid contributors. This team is beyond scary.
First round: Portland Trail Blazers (7)
Well, this will after all be the return of Aldridge to Portland, and after the way he left, it’s unlikely that the city is preparing a hero’s welcome or anything of the sort. That will actually be a key advantage for San Antonio in this series: just their sheer dominance up front. The Blazers have many decent frontcourt defenders -- their main rotation consists of SF/PF Al Farouq-Aminu, PF/C Ed Davis, C/PF Mason Plumlee, and C Meyers Leonard -- but none of those players even score in double digits. It’s very difficult to imagine a crop of youngsters like that overcoming a San Antonio frontline consisting of Leonard, Aldridge, and Duncan. In fact, SG Allen Crabbe is Portland’s third-highest scorer at 10.3 points per game, as nearly the team’s entire offense comes from the star backcourt duo of PG Damian Lillard and SG/PG C.J McCollum. San Antonio’s backcourt and help defense are simply too good to be beaten by just two players, no matter how talented they may be.
Prediction: San Antonio wins, 4-0
Second round: Oklahoma City Thunder (3)
The Thunder may look intimidating, and they sure are -- that’s what a pair of elite superstars in PG Russell Westbrook and SF/PF Kevin Durant will get for you -- but nobody strikes fear into the Spurs. And for good reason too: the last time these two teams met in the playoffs was in the 2014 Western Conference Finals, where the Spurs won 4-2 before getting revenge on Miami in the finals. As mentioned above, San Antonio has improved a great deal since then, but Oklahoma City has only really replaced old role players with new ones -- immediately making the Spur the favorites here. Despite everything the front office did to add more firepower, 90% of the Thunder’s offense comes from Westbrook and Durant. And while by no means will they be shut down, the Spurs (as also mentioned above) simply work too well together as a defensive unit to be overcome by two players.
Prediction: San Antonio wins, 4-2
Third round (Western Conference Finals): Golden State Warriors (1)
This one should be great: probably the two best teams in all of basketball (sorry Cavs, Thunder) going at it. Golden State has been unstoppable this year, thanks of course to their superstar backcourt duo of PG Stephen Curry and SG Klay Thompson, and the versatile beast PF/SF Draymond Green. These two teams each rank at or near the top of the lists in nearly every category: rebounds, threes, defensive efficiency, you name it; thus this matchup cannot be decided abstractly, rather, you have to analyze the matchup.
An area where San Antonio should have an edge is inside -- despite the presence of Green and Warriors C Andrew Bogut, the frontcourt trio of Leonard, Aldridge and Duncan, plus guys like PF David West behind them, should get the Spurs plenty of points in the paint. Thus an x-factor in this series could be a guy like Bogut or C Festus Ezeli for Golden State, as Green cannot do all of the interior defending on his own.
In the backcourt, however, it is clearly advantage Warriors. Not only do Curry and Thompson average a combined 52.3 points and 8.4 threes per game, but the depth behind them and around them is also superb. What I imagine Popovich might do quite often is shift Leonard onto Curry, do lots of switches off of screens, and play help defense in order to attempt some sort of a collective effort against Curry and Thompson. To what extent such a strategy might work remains to be seen.
All in all, I think this could be a lower-scoring series than a lot of people might think, as Leonard and Green are likely the two very best defenders in basketball and will guard the opposing team’s top scorer. The bench play could also be a decisive factor, but again: these two teams have the very best benches in the league, and it will likely be a wash as well. Ultimately, however, I’m just skeptical as to whether or not Golden State can get much offense going outside of Curry and Thompson, while San Antonio has a variety of players who can put the ball in the basket. Gut call.
Prediction: San Antonio wins, 4-3
Fourth round (Finals): Cleveland Cavaliers (1)
This will be the third finals in four years of “LeBron vs. Spurs” , with The King playing on Miami for the other two matchups, which are tied 1-1. San Antonio smoked his Heat in 2014 by a series score of 4-1, so it all depends on one big question: “How much, if at all, better is James’ supporting cast now versus then?” PG Kyrie Irving and PF/C Kevin Love are decently comparable players to SG Dwyane Wade and PF/C Chris Bosh, but it’s clear that the Cavs have stronger role players than Miami did, even though both teams had solid supporting casts. SG’s J.R Smith and Iman Shumpert and big men Timofey Mozgov, PF Channing Frye, PF Tristan Thompson are definite upgrades over the aging three-point specialists on the Heat a few years ago.
Yet San Antonio is a different beast than it was in 2014. The addition of Aldridge is obvious and of paramount importance -- he, along with backup PF David West, will do wonders in improving what was already a superior frontcourt to LeBron’s. Internal growth and the simple maintaining of the same core players by GM R.C Buford will give the Spurs the edge in this series. If they did it once without Aldridge -- and did it 4-1 off of amazing three-point shooting -- they can sure do it again, even if LeBron and his new and improved supporting cast will make the series that much more entertaining.
Prediction: San Antonio wins, 4-3
Finals MVP: Kawhi Leonard
Power Rankings
Overall Ranking: 1st
Tier: Title Contenders
Projected Seeding: 1st in West
After staying relatively out of the free agency landscape for the better part of a decade, legendary General Manager R.C Buford swooped in this past summer to snag the top free agent, superstar PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge a scoring-rebounding machine. Much as Hall of Fame C/PF David Robinson did to PF/C Tim Duncan in 1998, it will soon be the now-39 year old Duncan's turn to pass the torch to the next superstar big man in San Antonio. In the post-Duncan era (which has to happen EVENTUALLY), Aldridge will be joined by the borderline-superstar SF/SG Kawhi Leonard, who recently became the third player to ever win both Finals MVP and Defensive Player of the Year. The others? Hakeem Olajuwon and Michael Jordan, who were both well over 23 years old when they won the awards. But if the Spurs' future is bright, then their present is absolutely blinding. Duncan, although resting some games and playing with minutes restrictions, looks anything BUT 39 years old when he steps on the court, picking up his 18th All-Star last season. He will join Aldridge in the frontcourt, and PF David West, who turned down a $12.6 million player option from Indiana to sign a $1.5 million contract with San Antonio in hopes of capturing a title, will be their primary backup. Leonard is of course the small forward and can guard anybody in the league, while longtime PG Tony Parker and sharpshooter SG/SF Danny Green round out the backcourt. Parker will once again serve as the team's facilitator, while Green will continue to light it up from downtown, with franchise-legend SG Manu Ginobili back for another season to back Green up. If all that wasn't enough, the team is once again coached by Gregg Popovich, one of the greatest coaches of all time who is renowned for getting more than the maximum out of his players. This team's success has been and will be scary good, which makes the present straight-up frightening.
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Sacramento Kings Trade Grades
Kings get: Spurs’ second-round pick
Spurs get: PG Ray McCallum
This move was just the icing on the cake for what has been an absolutely perfect offseason for the Spurs. After letting backup PG Cory Joseph walk, in a successful roll of the dice to preserve the cap space for the eventual signing of superstar PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge, San Antonio needed a cheap backup to PG Tony Parker. Enter Ray McCallum, a productive, young point guard on an expiring $950,000 deal, and on a team (the Kings) that has been swindled in the past. They were semi-swindled once more, as the point guard had just come off a solid season in which he had averaged 7.4 points and 2.8 assists per game. McCallum not only filled a need for the Spurs, but was also a steal for just a measly second-round pick, one that could very well be the last pick in the entire draft.
Grade: A-
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Atlanta Hawks Trade Grades
Hawks get: C/PF Tiago Splitter
Spurs get: rights to Georgios Printezis, top 55 protected 2017 second-round pick (a.k.a: nothing)
To be clear, Printezis holds little to no value, and that draft pick will likely never reach San Antonio. So why did the Spurs do this trade? Simple: to get rid of Splitter’s pricey 2 year/$16.75 million deal. And why did they need to clear cap space? Simple: to add superstar PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge on a 4 year/$80 million contract. Aldridge averaged 23.4 points and 10.2 rebounds per game as one of the best big men in basketball, while Splitter put up 8.2 points and 4.8 rebounds per game last year as a solid role player. The decision for San Antonio was, well, simple.
Grade: A+
Best/Worst Draft Scenarios
(#26 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Drafting SG Rashad Vaughn (UNLV, Freshman)
The Spurs are in a tough spot this summer: their four best wing players (SF/SG Kawhi Leonard, SG Manu Ginobili, SG/SF Danny Green, and SG Marco Belinelli), in addition to PG/SG Cory Joseph who manned a lot of minutes at the two last season, are all hitting free agency. For some insurance, it’s borderline-necessary that San Antonio nabs a quality shooting guard via the draft, and especially one that can play in Coach Gregg Popovich’s Ubuntu-esque system. Enter Vaughn, a young, energetic, dynamic scorer. The UNLV freshman can score in every way imaginable: beyond the arc, mid-range, by attacking to the basket, and off the dribble too. His strength and athleticism also help him to be a quality defender on the other end. He lacks discipline, which is pretty much the only knock on an 18 year old with this kind of talent, as his shot-selection, attitude, and work ethic can all be questioned. However, working with Mr. Popovich and in the Spurs’ environment will surely change that quickly, and Vaughn projects to be a key spark scorer off the bench immediately for San Antonio nonetheless.
Worst Case Scenario: None
To be perfectly honest, there can never be a worst case scenario in the draft for the Spurs. You could have a wild monkey throw darts at prospects’ names, and that guy would still become a key role player for San Antonio en route to yet another playoff run. Their environment for training players and team basketball is just too good. This draft in particular, however, doesn’t really project to have any can’t-miss prospects near the end anyways, so the Spurs can simply settle for wherever the monkey’s dart lands. In other words, there are plenty of players that could fill a hole for the Spurs and that they could groom at this point in the draft, so the franchise can know who they have their eyes set on before the draft even begins.
Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams
To read about how the Spurs succeed, see: every single year since 1999 (dawn of the Duncan era). In the 2010s, however, that strategy has changed. Aging stars PF/C Tim Duncan, PG Tony Parker, and SG Manu Ginobili rest in the regular season, then turn it up come playoff time. They are now aided from a variety of sources, SF Kawhi Leonard and SG Danny Green to name a couple. As long as legendary Coach Gregg Popovich keeps working his magic and keeps this superstar-less team firing on all cylinders, defending their title should be no problem for the most consistently dominant team in sports right now.
Draft Targets
Pick #24: Caris LeVert, Shooting Guard/Small Forward, Michigan
There are a couple of things going against LeVert right now: injury concerns and the fact that his Wolverines missed the NCAA tournament. He’s had surgery on the same foot twice now, and he is missing the remainder of this season anyways. Should he declare for the draft, however, he is still a first round pick. Averaging 15 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 steals this season before the injury, LeVert was also hitting 2 threes a game on 40.5% shooting from long range. At 6’7”, he’s also a matchup nightmare for opposing two-guards, and can also slide over to play small forward given his size – something the Spurs will likely ask him to do often. SG Manu Ginobili could retire any day now, and having a long-term plan to replace the Argentinean will be key. LeVert, though an injury risk, is exactly that.
Season Predictions
Regular Season: Almost every year it’s the same story with the Spurs. People write them off at midseason only to watch as they go on a late-season run and ultimately make noise in the playoffs, and five times on the route to a championship on PF/C Tim Duncan’s watch. They’re always a hard team to predict going all the way because they really don’t have a superstar ever since Duncan started aging, and they’re just a lot better than the sum of their parts. This season, with the same exact core as last year where they won the title, they’ll be looking to prove the doubters wrong again as they currently possess the seventh seed out in the impossible West.
Projected Record: 50-32
Playoffs Round One
Memphis Grizzlies (#2) vs. San Antonio Spurs (#7)
I don’t want to be one of those guys, I really don’t. I have followed basketball for quite a few years now, watching author after author write off the Spurs, saying this year was different and Duncan was too old and this and that, only to be proven wrong come playoff time by one of the most consistent franchises in sports. I know I’m sounding a lot like a hypocrite, and I’m almost positive that San Antonio will go all the way just because I said this (kidding), but I really do think that the Spurs will get eliminated in the first round. There’s no motivation for a Finals redemption like last year, as they’re sitting pretty with 5 rings in the past decade and a half. Other than Duncan, star PG Tony Parker has been playing poorly, as have others, and the Spurs as a collective unit just don’t seem to be putting the same energy out there and having the same ridiculous ball movement and three-point shooting that they had in last year’s magical season. In addition, the brutality of the Western Conference finally catches up to them, as even after mustering 50 wins in the hardest division in basketball, they have to take on the Memphis Grizzlies. Memphis is another commonly overlooked team, but with a few stars in PG Mike Conley, PF Zach Randolph, and sort of in SF/PF Jeff Green, not to forget about superstar C Marc Gasol of course, this team is legit. There’s plenty of playoff experience and chemistry here, though maybe not as much as the Spurs, as well as depth everywhere, though again maybe not as much as the Spurs. Still, the talent discrepancy in the starting lineups will just be too much to overcome for San Antonio, and seemingly unlike their counterparts, these Grizzlies are hungry for a playoff run.
Series Prediction: Memphis wins 4-3
One Trade That Every Team Should Do
San Antonio gets: SF Chris Copeland
Indiana gets: PF Jeff Ayres, San Antonio’s 2015 second-rounder
Finances: Both Ayres and Copeland are on expiring deals, worth $1.8 million and $3.1 million respectively. Neither figures to shake up the financial picture for either team. Nothing more to discuss here. Moving on.
The Fit: The Spurs have on of those luxury needs to be addressed, meaning it’s not really a need. Behind star SF Kawhi Leonard, their main option is rookie SF/PF Kyle Anderson, or else it’s guys like SG/SF Danny Green or SG/SF Marco Belinelli playing out of position. When healthy, Kawhi can shoulder so many of the minutes at small forward that this really isn’t an issue, but he has been injured fairly often. Because of this, they should probably turn to the trade market, something the league’s model franchise has rarely done. Copeland is available, and he can be had for exactly what you see above: a late second-rounder and a benchwarmer to make the money work. Copeland is nothing special, but he did hit 42.1% of his threes in his rookie season just two years ago, connecting on 1.1 a game. Now, he hasn’t really improved much, but is still knocking down 1.2 threes a contest, and is good enough to play backup minutes behind Leonard. Perfecting this roster before the Spurs’ annual playoff run has to be something GM R.C Buford should consider.
Why the other team does it: As the Pacers prepare for next season in which superstar SF/SG Paul George will return from his injury, it doesn’t seem likely that they will keep Copeland around, although they probably won’t keep Ayres around either. So why not get a late second-rounder if you can in the midst of a lost season?
State of the Franchise
Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $43.0 million
Background: Year after year, the same question comes up for the Spurs again and again. Are Duncan and Ginobili going to retire? The expectations are always set low. They're too old everyone says. They're not going to last. Well, pretty much every year, flying in the face of all the doubters, the Spurs manage to earn the first seed in the West. Every year, they’ve been led by 32 year old PG Tony Parker, 37 year old SG Manu Ginobili, and 38 year old PF Tim Duncan. After making it to the Finals in 2013 after countless years of making the playoffs, they lost to the Miami Heat in a seven game series, separated from a championship by one Ray Allen three pointer. Unexpectedly, they came back next year better than ever and torched the Heat in a Finals rematch. The Finals MVP went to young Spurs SF Kawhi Leonard, who couldn't miss a shot that series. Now the Spurs are back at it again this year, defying all critics and maintaining their winning ways. But this year, it's a bit different because they're now being led by Kawhi Leonard.
Current Financial State: With their aging stars nearing retirement (still), the Spurs are soon due for a rebuild with a new core. Unlike other rebuilding teams, though, they have a pretty big head start with Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard. For now though, they're still winning so it'll be a bit longer before the rebuild starts so they just have to worry about keeping their current team intact. Parker is being paid $15 million a year and is under contract for a while, which might hinder them later, but if he keeps playing the way he is now, his contract will still be a reasonable deal. Duncan, Ginobili, and Leonard are set to hit free agency this year. Duncan and Ginobili might consider retirement, but if they decide to remain active, it is hard to envision them playing on any other team. Leonard is a restricted free agent and with his impressive amount of talent at such a young age, the Spurs might have to match a max deal from teams with a lot of cap space. With not much money being spent on their key players, the Spurs currently have great financial flexibility and are in good shape.
Targets: The level of basketball at which the Spurs played in the finals last year explains exactly why their main target in the offseason will be to keep the team they have. Their team chemistry, shown by their offensive flow and flawless passing, cannot afford to be compromised. The Spurs are known for not being particularly active in the trade market, and this year again, they have no need to be. All they must do is retain their free agents this year. Their main free agents this year are Duncan, Ginobili, and Leonard, which means their main targets are Duncan, Ginobili, and Leonard. The only thing in question for the Spurs this offseason is how much their free agents will be paid. Duncan and Ginobili will very likely remain in San Antonio and so coming to terms on a contract with them shouldn’t be a problem at all. Duncan will command a $10 million salary at most, maybe even accepting a hometown discount for San Antonio, for who knows how long. Ginobili will probably take something around a $5 million salary for a couple of years, maybe taking a discount as well. Leonard, on the other hand, is a different situation. He is a restricted free agent this year, meaning he can choose to sign an offer sheet with any team he wishes, but the Spurs have the right to match within a couple days and keep him. With his game on a constant rise at 23 years old (24 by free agency), it would make sense for the Spurs to match even a max contract offer sheet from another team. The Spurs should have little to no trouble retaining the core members of their championship team.
The Fit: The best way to see the way the Spurs' core players fit would be to watch the highlights of the 2014 NBA Finals, or the full 48 minute games, too. But for the sake of content for the paragraph, it must be attempted to be put in words. Putting these plays and images into words is a bit of a challenge but it should be able to be achieved in about one sentence: they play really well together. As shown above, the Spurs play really well together, and to break up their team would be to take apart a championship squad. As the saying goes, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
Current seeding: 2nd
Projected seeding: 2nd
Who here remembers the 2014 Spurs title team,? The one who rebounded from a devastating finals loss to Miami in the prior year, only to go a league-best 62-20 (0.756), dominate the playoffs, and get sweet revenge against the Heat to the tune of a 4-1 series victory? That team?
Well, guess what: nothing has happened to it. Every single key player from that squad remains on the team today, sans maybe backups PG Cory Joseph and SG Marco Belinelli. The key changes between now and then, however, are not subtractions, rather they are additions. PF David West, PG Andre Miller, SG Kevin Martin and more have all further bolstered a bench that was already probably the best in the league; that’s not even to mention the transformation of SF Kawhi Leonard into a superstar. The greatest addition, however, is of course star PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge, lured from Portland in free agency this past summer. Aldridge has fit in nicely with San Antonio as the beta dog for Leonard at 18 points and 8 rebounds per game. You could argue that dinosaurs PF/C Tim Duncan, PG Tony Parker, and SG Manu Ginobili have declined since 2014, but let’s be honest: Duncan ages like fine wine, and Parker and Ginobili are still very solid contributors. This team is beyond scary.
First round: Portland Trail Blazers (7)
Well, this will after all be the return of Aldridge to Portland, and after the way he left, it’s unlikely that the city is preparing a hero’s welcome or anything of the sort. That will actually be a key advantage for San Antonio in this series: just their sheer dominance up front. The Blazers have many decent frontcourt defenders -- their main rotation consists of SF/PF Al Farouq-Aminu, PF/C Ed Davis, C/PF Mason Plumlee, and C Meyers Leonard -- but none of those players even score in double digits. It’s very difficult to imagine a crop of youngsters like that overcoming a San Antonio frontline consisting of Leonard, Aldridge, and Duncan. In fact, SG Allen Crabbe is Portland’s third-highest scorer at 10.3 points per game, as nearly the team’s entire offense comes from the star backcourt duo of PG Damian Lillard and SG/PG C.J McCollum. San Antonio’s backcourt and help defense are simply too good to be beaten by just two players, no matter how talented they may be.
Prediction: San Antonio wins, 4-0
Second round: Oklahoma City Thunder (3)
The Thunder may look intimidating, and they sure are -- that’s what a pair of elite superstars in PG Russell Westbrook and SF/PF Kevin Durant will get for you -- but nobody strikes fear into the Spurs. And for good reason too: the last time these two teams met in the playoffs was in the 2014 Western Conference Finals, where the Spurs won 4-2 before getting revenge on Miami in the finals. As mentioned above, San Antonio has improved a great deal since then, but Oklahoma City has only really replaced old role players with new ones -- immediately making the Spur the favorites here. Despite everything the front office did to add more firepower, 90% of the Thunder’s offense comes from Westbrook and Durant. And while by no means will they be shut down, the Spurs (as also mentioned above) simply work too well together as a defensive unit to be overcome by two players.
Prediction: San Antonio wins, 4-2
Third round (Western Conference Finals): Golden State Warriors (1)
This one should be great: probably the two best teams in all of basketball (sorry Cavs, Thunder) going at it. Golden State has been unstoppable this year, thanks of course to their superstar backcourt duo of PG Stephen Curry and SG Klay Thompson, and the versatile beast PF/SF Draymond Green. These two teams each rank at or near the top of the lists in nearly every category: rebounds, threes, defensive efficiency, you name it; thus this matchup cannot be decided abstractly, rather, you have to analyze the matchup.
An area where San Antonio should have an edge is inside -- despite the presence of Green and Warriors C Andrew Bogut, the frontcourt trio of Leonard, Aldridge and Duncan, plus guys like PF David West behind them, should get the Spurs plenty of points in the paint. Thus an x-factor in this series could be a guy like Bogut or C Festus Ezeli for Golden State, as Green cannot do all of the interior defending on his own.
In the backcourt, however, it is clearly advantage Warriors. Not only do Curry and Thompson average a combined 52.3 points and 8.4 threes per game, but the depth behind them and around them is also superb. What I imagine Popovich might do quite often is shift Leonard onto Curry, do lots of switches off of screens, and play help defense in order to attempt some sort of a collective effort against Curry and Thompson. To what extent such a strategy might work remains to be seen.
All in all, I think this could be a lower-scoring series than a lot of people might think, as Leonard and Green are likely the two very best defenders in basketball and will guard the opposing team’s top scorer. The bench play could also be a decisive factor, but again: these two teams have the very best benches in the league, and it will likely be a wash as well. Ultimately, however, I’m just skeptical as to whether or not Golden State can get much offense going outside of Curry and Thompson, while San Antonio has a variety of players who can put the ball in the basket. Gut call.
Prediction: San Antonio wins, 4-3
Fourth round (Finals): Cleveland Cavaliers (1)
This will be the third finals in four years of “LeBron vs. Spurs” , with The King playing on Miami for the other two matchups, which are tied 1-1. San Antonio smoked his Heat in 2014 by a series score of 4-1, so it all depends on one big question: “How much, if at all, better is James’ supporting cast now versus then?” PG Kyrie Irving and PF/C Kevin Love are decently comparable players to SG Dwyane Wade and PF/C Chris Bosh, but it’s clear that the Cavs have stronger role players than Miami did, even though both teams had solid supporting casts. SG’s J.R Smith and Iman Shumpert and big men Timofey Mozgov, PF Channing Frye, PF Tristan Thompson are definite upgrades over the aging three-point specialists on the Heat a few years ago.
Yet San Antonio is a different beast than it was in 2014. The addition of Aldridge is obvious and of paramount importance -- he, along with backup PF David West, will do wonders in improving what was already a superior frontcourt to LeBron’s. Internal growth and the simple maintaining of the same core players by GM R.C Buford will give the Spurs the edge in this series. If they did it once without Aldridge -- and did it 4-1 off of amazing three-point shooting -- they can sure do it again, even if LeBron and his new and improved supporting cast will make the series that much more entertaining.
Prediction: San Antonio wins, 4-3
Finals MVP: Kawhi Leonard
Power Rankings
Overall Ranking: 1st
Tier: Title Contenders
Projected Seeding: 1st in West
After staying relatively out of the free agency landscape for the better part of a decade, legendary General Manager R.C Buford swooped in this past summer to snag the top free agent, superstar PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge a scoring-rebounding machine. Much as Hall of Fame C/PF David Robinson did to PF/C Tim Duncan in 1998, it will soon be the now-39 year old Duncan's turn to pass the torch to the next superstar big man in San Antonio. In the post-Duncan era (which has to happen EVENTUALLY), Aldridge will be joined by the borderline-superstar SF/SG Kawhi Leonard, who recently became the third player to ever win both Finals MVP and Defensive Player of the Year. The others? Hakeem Olajuwon and Michael Jordan, who were both well over 23 years old when they won the awards. But if the Spurs' future is bright, then their present is absolutely blinding. Duncan, although resting some games and playing with minutes restrictions, looks anything BUT 39 years old when he steps on the court, picking up his 18th All-Star last season. He will join Aldridge in the frontcourt, and PF David West, who turned down a $12.6 million player option from Indiana to sign a $1.5 million contract with San Antonio in hopes of capturing a title, will be their primary backup. Leonard is of course the small forward and can guard anybody in the league, while longtime PG Tony Parker and sharpshooter SG/SF Danny Green round out the backcourt. Parker will once again serve as the team's facilitator, while Green will continue to light it up from downtown, with franchise-legend SG Manu Ginobili back for another season to back Green up. If all that wasn't enough, the team is once again coached by Gregg Popovich, one of the greatest coaches of all time who is renowned for getting more than the maximum out of his players. This team's success has been and will be scary good, which makes the present straight-up frightening.
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Sacramento Kings Trade Grades
Kings get: Spurs’ second-round pick
Spurs get: PG Ray McCallum
This move was just the icing on the cake for what has been an absolutely perfect offseason for the Spurs. After letting backup PG Cory Joseph walk, in a successful roll of the dice to preserve the cap space for the eventual signing of superstar PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge, San Antonio needed a cheap backup to PG Tony Parker. Enter Ray McCallum, a productive, young point guard on an expiring $950,000 deal, and on a team (the Kings) that has been swindled in the past. They were semi-swindled once more, as the point guard had just come off a solid season in which he had averaged 7.4 points and 2.8 assists per game. McCallum not only filled a need for the Spurs, but was also a steal for just a measly second-round pick, one that could very well be the last pick in the entire draft.
Grade: A-
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Atlanta Hawks Trade Grades
Hawks get: C/PF Tiago Splitter
Spurs get: rights to Georgios Printezis, top 55 protected 2017 second-round pick (a.k.a: nothing)
To be clear, Printezis holds little to no value, and that draft pick will likely never reach San Antonio. So why did the Spurs do this trade? Simple: to get rid of Splitter’s pricey 2 year/$16.75 million deal. And why did they need to clear cap space? Simple: to add superstar PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge on a 4 year/$80 million contract. Aldridge averaged 23.4 points and 10.2 rebounds per game as one of the best big men in basketball, while Splitter put up 8.2 points and 4.8 rebounds per game last year as a solid role player. The decision for San Antonio was, well, simple.
Grade: A+
Best/Worst Draft Scenarios
(#26 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Drafting SG Rashad Vaughn (UNLV, Freshman)
The Spurs are in a tough spot this summer: their four best wing players (SF/SG Kawhi Leonard, SG Manu Ginobili, SG/SF Danny Green, and SG Marco Belinelli), in addition to PG/SG Cory Joseph who manned a lot of minutes at the two last season, are all hitting free agency. For some insurance, it’s borderline-necessary that San Antonio nabs a quality shooting guard via the draft, and especially one that can play in Coach Gregg Popovich’s Ubuntu-esque system. Enter Vaughn, a young, energetic, dynamic scorer. The UNLV freshman can score in every way imaginable: beyond the arc, mid-range, by attacking to the basket, and off the dribble too. His strength and athleticism also help him to be a quality defender on the other end. He lacks discipline, which is pretty much the only knock on an 18 year old with this kind of talent, as his shot-selection, attitude, and work ethic can all be questioned. However, working with Mr. Popovich and in the Spurs’ environment will surely change that quickly, and Vaughn projects to be a key spark scorer off the bench immediately for San Antonio nonetheless.
Worst Case Scenario: None
To be perfectly honest, there can never be a worst case scenario in the draft for the Spurs. You could have a wild monkey throw darts at prospects’ names, and that guy would still become a key role player for San Antonio en route to yet another playoff run. Their environment for training players and team basketball is just too good. This draft in particular, however, doesn’t really project to have any can’t-miss prospects near the end anyways, so the Spurs can simply settle for wherever the monkey’s dart lands. In other words, there are plenty of players that could fill a hole for the Spurs and that they could groom at this point in the draft, so the franchise can know who they have their eyes set on before the draft even begins.
Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams
To read about how the Spurs succeed, see: every single year since 1999 (dawn of the Duncan era). In the 2010s, however, that strategy has changed. Aging stars PF/C Tim Duncan, PG Tony Parker, and SG Manu Ginobili rest in the regular season, then turn it up come playoff time. They are now aided from a variety of sources, SF Kawhi Leonard and SG Danny Green to name a couple. As long as legendary Coach Gregg Popovich keeps working his magic and keeps this superstar-less team firing on all cylinders, defending their title should be no problem for the most consistently dominant team in sports right now.
Draft Targets
Pick #24: Caris LeVert, Shooting Guard/Small Forward, Michigan
There are a couple of things going against LeVert right now: injury concerns and the fact that his Wolverines missed the NCAA tournament. He’s had surgery on the same foot twice now, and he is missing the remainder of this season anyways. Should he declare for the draft, however, he is still a first round pick. Averaging 15 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 steals this season before the injury, LeVert was also hitting 2 threes a game on 40.5% shooting from long range. At 6’7”, he’s also a matchup nightmare for opposing two-guards, and can also slide over to play small forward given his size – something the Spurs will likely ask him to do often. SG Manu Ginobili could retire any day now, and having a long-term plan to replace the Argentinean will be key. LeVert, though an injury risk, is exactly that.
Season Predictions
Regular Season: Almost every year it’s the same story with the Spurs. People write them off at midseason only to watch as they go on a late-season run and ultimately make noise in the playoffs, and five times on the route to a championship on PF/C Tim Duncan’s watch. They’re always a hard team to predict going all the way because they really don’t have a superstar ever since Duncan started aging, and they’re just a lot better than the sum of their parts. This season, with the same exact core as last year where they won the title, they’ll be looking to prove the doubters wrong again as they currently possess the seventh seed out in the impossible West.
Projected Record: 50-32
Playoffs Round One
Memphis Grizzlies (#2) vs. San Antonio Spurs (#7)
I don’t want to be one of those guys, I really don’t. I have followed basketball for quite a few years now, watching author after author write off the Spurs, saying this year was different and Duncan was too old and this and that, only to be proven wrong come playoff time by one of the most consistent franchises in sports. I know I’m sounding a lot like a hypocrite, and I’m almost positive that San Antonio will go all the way just because I said this (kidding), but I really do think that the Spurs will get eliminated in the first round. There’s no motivation for a Finals redemption like last year, as they’re sitting pretty with 5 rings in the past decade and a half. Other than Duncan, star PG Tony Parker has been playing poorly, as have others, and the Spurs as a collective unit just don’t seem to be putting the same energy out there and having the same ridiculous ball movement and three-point shooting that they had in last year’s magical season. In addition, the brutality of the Western Conference finally catches up to them, as even after mustering 50 wins in the hardest division in basketball, they have to take on the Memphis Grizzlies. Memphis is another commonly overlooked team, but with a few stars in PG Mike Conley, PF Zach Randolph, and sort of in SF/PF Jeff Green, not to forget about superstar C Marc Gasol of course, this team is legit. There’s plenty of playoff experience and chemistry here, though maybe not as much as the Spurs, as well as depth everywhere, though again maybe not as much as the Spurs. Still, the talent discrepancy in the starting lineups will just be too much to overcome for San Antonio, and seemingly unlike their counterparts, these Grizzlies are hungry for a playoff run.
Series Prediction: Memphis wins 4-3
One Trade That Every Team Should Do
San Antonio gets: SF Chris Copeland
Indiana gets: PF Jeff Ayres, San Antonio’s 2015 second-rounder
Finances: Both Ayres and Copeland are on expiring deals, worth $1.8 million and $3.1 million respectively. Neither figures to shake up the financial picture for either team. Nothing more to discuss here. Moving on.
The Fit: The Spurs have on of those luxury needs to be addressed, meaning it’s not really a need. Behind star SF Kawhi Leonard, their main option is rookie SF/PF Kyle Anderson, or else it’s guys like SG/SF Danny Green or SG/SF Marco Belinelli playing out of position. When healthy, Kawhi can shoulder so many of the minutes at small forward that this really isn’t an issue, but he has been injured fairly often. Because of this, they should probably turn to the trade market, something the league’s model franchise has rarely done. Copeland is available, and he can be had for exactly what you see above: a late second-rounder and a benchwarmer to make the money work. Copeland is nothing special, but he did hit 42.1% of his threes in his rookie season just two years ago, connecting on 1.1 a game. Now, he hasn’t really improved much, but is still knocking down 1.2 threes a contest, and is good enough to play backup minutes behind Leonard. Perfecting this roster before the Spurs’ annual playoff run has to be something GM R.C Buford should consider.
Why the other team does it: As the Pacers prepare for next season in which superstar SF/SG Paul George will return from his injury, it doesn’t seem likely that they will keep Copeland around, although they probably won’t keep Ayres around either. So why not get a late second-rounder if you can in the midst of a lost season?
State of the Franchise
Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $43.0 million
Background: Year after year, the same question comes up for the Spurs again and again. Are Duncan and Ginobili going to retire? The expectations are always set low. They're too old everyone says. They're not going to last. Well, pretty much every year, flying in the face of all the doubters, the Spurs manage to earn the first seed in the West. Every year, they’ve been led by 32 year old PG Tony Parker, 37 year old SG Manu Ginobili, and 38 year old PF Tim Duncan. After making it to the Finals in 2013 after countless years of making the playoffs, they lost to the Miami Heat in a seven game series, separated from a championship by one Ray Allen three pointer. Unexpectedly, they came back next year better than ever and torched the Heat in a Finals rematch. The Finals MVP went to young Spurs SF Kawhi Leonard, who couldn't miss a shot that series. Now the Spurs are back at it again this year, defying all critics and maintaining their winning ways. But this year, it's a bit different because they're now being led by Kawhi Leonard.
Current Financial State: With their aging stars nearing retirement (still), the Spurs are soon due for a rebuild with a new core. Unlike other rebuilding teams, though, they have a pretty big head start with Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard. For now though, they're still winning so it'll be a bit longer before the rebuild starts so they just have to worry about keeping their current team intact. Parker is being paid $15 million a year and is under contract for a while, which might hinder them later, but if he keeps playing the way he is now, his contract will still be a reasonable deal. Duncan, Ginobili, and Leonard are set to hit free agency this year. Duncan and Ginobili might consider retirement, but if they decide to remain active, it is hard to envision them playing on any other team. Leonard is a restricted free agent and with his impressive amount of talent at such a young age, the Spurs might have to match a max deal from teams with a lot of cap space. With not much money being spent on their key players, the Spurs currently have great financial flexibility and are in good shape.
Targets: The level of basketball at which the Spurs played in the finals last year explains exactly why their main target in the offseason will be to keep the team they have. Their team chemistry, shown by their offensive flow and flawless passing, cannot afford to be compromised. The Spurs are known for not being particularly active in the trade market, and this year again, they have no need to be. All they must do is retain their free agents this year. Their main free agents this year are Duncan, Ginobili, and Leonard, which means their main targets are Duncan, Ginobili, and Leonard. The only thing in question for the Spurs this offseason is how much their free agents will be paid. Duncan and Ginobili will very likely remain in San Antonio and so coming to terms on a contract with them shouldn’t be a problem at all. Duncan will command a $10 million salary at most, maybe even accepting a hometown discount for San Antonio, for who knows how long. Ginobili will probably take something around a $5 million salary for a couple of years, maybe taking a discount as well. Leonard, on the other hand, is a different situation. He is a restricted free agent this year, meaning he can choose to sign an offer sheet with any team he wishes, but the Spurs have the right to match within a couple days and keep him. With his game on a constant rise at 23 years old (24 by free agency), it would make sense for the Spurs to match even a max contract offer sheet from another team. The Spurs should have little to no trouble retaining the core members of their championship team.
The Fit: The best way to see the way the Spurs' core players fit would be to watch the highlights of the 2014 NBA Finals, or the full 48 minute games, too. But for the sake of content for the paragraph, it must be attempted to be put in words. Putting these plays and images into words is a bit of a challenge but it should be able to be achieved in about one sentence: they play really well together. As shown above, the Spurs play really well together, and to break up their team would be to take apart a championship squad. As the saying goes, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
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