Season Predictions 2016
Current seeding: 6th
Projected seeding: 7th
If you wanna talk about the best backcourt duos, you gotta talk about Curry and Thompson of Golden State, Lowry and DeRozan of Toronto, and… Lillard and McCollum of Portland?! PG Damian Lillard we already knew was a superstar, and is merely meeting his crazy-high expectations with per-game averages of 25.7 points, 6.9 assists, and 3.1 threes. But McCollum put up all of 6.8 points per game last season, whereas this season he’s averaging 20.7 points and 2.4 threes and is a frontrunner for the Most Improved Player award. Riding the strength of their star backcourt duo, the Blazers are now firmly entrenched in the playoffs. This was a team, need I remind you, that many (yes, including yours truly) predicted to be a West bottom-feeder after losing four-fifths (⅘) of their starting five -- all except Lillard -- this summer. Beyond Lillard and McCollum, the team features many good-but-not-great players, mainly prospects, to complete a very deep bench: SF Al Farouq-Aminu, PF/C Ed Davis, and PF/C Mason Plumlee, round out Portland’s starting five.
First round: San Antonio Spurs (2)
Talk about old school vs. new school. Whereas the Spurs have an average age of 31.6 -- with PF/C Tim Duncan having been to the playoffs every single season of his 19-year career, including five championships -- this will be the first April basketball that many Portland youngsters have ever played. The only way that the Trail Blazers can even put up a fight is if Lillard and McCollum keep bombing away from downtown, but San Antonio ranks second in three-point defense, limiting their opponents to a mere 32.8% from beyond the arc. This can immediately pose issues for a Portland team that is heavily reliant on the three-ball, as they rank fifth in downtown attempts per game. Defensively, the Blazers do have solid defenders like Aminu and Plumlee that could pose some issues for San Antonio’s imposing frontline of SF Kawhi Leonard, PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge, and Duncan, but it’s hard to imagine a headline reading “Portland upsets San Antonio behind Al Farouq-Aminu shutting down Leonard and Aldridge.” Portland is a very young team and already talented, so they’ll be back next year, and the Spurs are the Spurs, so they’ll definitely be back next year (and every successive year for eternity) too.
Prediction: San Antonio wins, 4-1
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Orlando Magic Trade Grades
Click here for link to Cleveland Cavaliers Trade Grades
Cavaliers get: PF Channing Frye
Magic get: SG Jared Cunningham, second-round pick
Blazers get: C/PF Anderson Varejao (waived), top-10 protected 2018 first-rounder (via Cleveland)
As President Neil Olshey put it: “This was an opportunistic way to use our cap room to acquire a valuable asset”. Of course, the 'valuable asset' that the Blazers got here, is that future first-rounder courtesy of the Cavs. That's really all there is to it. Portland didn't give anything of significance, and ended up waiving Varejao's unsightly 2 year/$20 million deal. What more is there to say?
Grade: A
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Portland Trail Blazers' Trade Grades
Heat get: More $$$
Blazers get: PG Brian Roberts, second-round pick
Free is free! Portland here pulled off an absolute beauty. For starters, they don't lose anything, and with the second-rounder, the trade is already a net plus. But Roberts, after being limited to mop-up duty behind PG's Kemba Walker and Jeremy Lin in Charlotte, and also projected to have about the same role in Miami, may finally have found his niche. His presence alone finally gives superstar PG Damian Lillard a legitimate backup, meaning breakout SG/PG C.J McCollum may at last be able to shift alongside his backcourt partner at the shooting guard position more often. Roberts has also shown he is deserving of a backup role this season, averaging 15.7 points per 36 minutes, and the fact that there is zero risk attached to his expiring $2.85 million contract is simply the icing on the cake.
Grade: A+
Power Rankings
Overall Ranking: 27th
Tier: Bottom Feeders
Projected Seeding: 13th in West
What was once "Rip City" is now rather "R.I.P City." Emerging superstar PG Damian Lillard was surrounded by one of basketball's best starting fives, as well as perhaps it's best sixth man, last season, only to see them all disappear this summer. SG/SF Wesley Matthews bolted to Dallas, C Robin Lopez and SG/SF Arron Afflalo (the sixth man) signed with New York, SF/SG Nicolas Batum was dealt to Charlotte for a future prospect (PF/C Noah Vonleh), while of course superstar PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge chose San Antonio. Lillard is now perhaps the only even above-average player on the roster, after being signed to a monstrous extension, but that will change soon. The team is littered with prospects: PG/SG C.J McCollum and of course Lillard in the backcourt; SF Al Farouq-Aminu, SF Moe Harkless, and others battle for minutes on the wing; while C/PF Mason Plumlee, PF/C Noah Vonleh, and C/PF Meyers Leonard are among those who make up the frontcourt rotation. While all of these aforementioned players are under 25 and have potential, none of them (again, other than Lillard obviously) are a sure thing to pan out. Still, with so many high-risk, high-reward prospects, Portland is bound to find at least one "high-reward" guy to be Lillard's running mate in the future, but that still doesn't help the fact that Lillard has little to no help on this team anymore in the present.
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Cleveland Cavaliers Trade Grades
Trail Blazers get: C/PF Brendan Haywood (waived), SF/SG Mike Miller, 2019 and 2020 second-round picks from Cleveland
Cavaliers get: cash considerations, $10.5 million trade exception, $2.85 million trade exception
I mean, free draft picks are free draft picks, right? Portland took advantage of Cleveland’s desperation to acquire those hefty trade exceptions, and they lose absolutely nothing in return. They waived Haywood’s fully non-guaranteed 1 year/$10.5 million contract, so that doesn’t count against their cap at all. The only thing that does count against their cap is Miller’s 1 year/$2.85 million deal, but that is actually very reasonable for an excellent three-point marksman like himself. No need to over-analyze this one. Free draft picks ladies and gentlemen, free picks.
Grade: A
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Brooklyn Nets Trade Grades
Nets get: Draft rights to SF Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (#23 pick), PG Steve Blake
Blazers get: C/PF Mason Plumlee, SG/SF Pat Connaughton (#41 pick)
As the Blazers have two key free agent big men that could go elsewhere, acquiring another quality backup big makes sense. They did have to give up a solid backup point guard and a guy in Hollis-Jefferson that would’ve been a perfect fit, but it looks like they got almost a fair deal here. Almost.
Blake has always been no more than a backup point guard, and that’s especially true now that he’s 35 years old. He can knock down threes, however, as he hit one a game on an efficient 35.2% from beyond the arc. Blake is a solid defender, and also averaged 3.6 assists per game last year, and he can effectively run the second unit, doing so when superstar PG Damian Lillard needed a breather. However, he is very limited offensively, and it won’t be too difficult for the Blazers to replace him.
Hollis-Jefferson is probably the most valuable piece of this deal for either side. The #23 pick has a completely busted jump shot, and although that’s a glaring weakness, it’s really his only one. Hollis-Jefferson is a fantastic defender that can guard multiple positions. He boasts tremendous physical gifts as well: his length, strength, speed, quickness and athleticism are all outstanding, and that stuff just isn’t teachable. He has a high motor, superb handles, and can slash to the basket and finish. His defensive skills and intangibles will translate from college to the NBA right away, but he will need to develop a solid jumper if he wants to become an offensive force in the pros. There was definitely a short and a long-term role for Hollis-Jefferson in Portland, and it’s a shame they couldn’t find away to keep him around, especially with another attractive trade chip in PF/C Noah Vonleh.
Plumlee is a quality big man, a good rotational piece that can rebound and defend, as well as the ability to occasionally get a basket or two. His offensive game is limited, but he’s still just 25 years old and is only a two-year veteran, so there’s more time for development there. His production was sound this season: 8.7 points on an efficient 57.3%, 6.2 rebounds, and a combined 1.6 blocks and steals per game in 21.3 minutes. He shouldn’t be relied upon as a full-time starter, but could usurp C Robin Lopez’s role as a 25-30 minutes per game guy should Lopez depart in free agency.
Connaughton, the #41 pick, could materialize as a solid rotational piece in the pros. The effort is always there with him: he has a high motor, is tough, physical, and is always hard-working when he’s on the floor, especially on defense. He’s also an excellent shooter that already has NBA three-point range (the pro 3-point line is a few feet further back than the college line). However, he is already 22 years old, so his long-term upside has is capped, and really isn’t particularly quick, especially when slashing to the basket. He’s also a bit undersized for his position. Still, he provides excellent insurance for the Blazers, as both SG/SF Wesley Matthews and SG/SF Arron Afflalo hit free agency, with no guarantee of either’s return.
If you add up what the Blazers gave versus what they got, they come out as slight losers of this deal. Connaughton and Blake essentially cancel out, and Plumlee is a guy that you could just have by spending x-million dollars on Robin Lopez. Losing an electric, high-upside guy like Hollis-Jefferson definitely hurts, but Portland got enough in return to not earn too much of a bad grade here.
Grade: B-
Best/Worst Draft Scenarios
(#23 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Drafting SF Justin Anderson (Virginia, Junior)
The Trail Blazers could also use another big man, especially considering that superstar PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge is thinking about leaving. However, SG/SF Wesley Matthews is also hitting free agency, and SF/SG Nicolas Batum is coming off a disappointing season. With the frontcourt being pretty fine as long as Aldridge returns and relatively little depth behind the wing duo, small forward is probably the target for Portland, and Anderson is the perfect fit. He projects to be your prototypical “3 and D” guy, one who can complement superstars nicely by being able to shoot three-pointers and play defense. Anderson is likely the best catch-and-shoot player in the draft, averaging 2 threes per game on a ridiculous 45% shooting from beyond the arc against extremely tough competition in the ACC. He’s also an elite defender with an extremely imposing frame that he uses very well to help him in all facets of his game. However, there really aren’t many facets to Anderson’s game and his potential is limited, but he excels in what he does and is an optimal fit on a team with superstars that’s trying to win now.
Worst Case Scenario: None
Much like the situation with the Bulls, there is no worst case scenario for Portland for the same reason: there are just so many shooters, which is what the Blazers need. If not Anderson, there’s still SG’s R.J. Hunter and Rashad Vaughn that can light it up from deep. These guys would both also fill a hole for Portland on the wings. Again ditto with Chicago, if other teams decide to reach on these shooters, then the Blazers could get a steal at #23. This is what I call a win-winner scenario: a “win” is landing any one of those shooters, and a “winner” is grabbing someone like PF Montrezl Harrell that should be going in the late teens. Therefore, there is no worst case scenario for Portland, as there are just too many shooters and not enough teams picking ahead of them to make something bad happen.
Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams
The Blazers are just like a lot of the other teams: they can go as far as their superstars will take them. PG Damian Lillard and PF LaMarcus Aldridge have proven themselves to be able to carry the team in the playoffs, and if stars SG/SF Arron Afflalo, SF/SG Nicolas Batum, and C Robin Lopez can chip in as well, this is a very threatening team in the postseason that nobody wants to play. If their bench can miraculously step it up and compete with other second units, then other teams might just get their wish: when it’s all said and done, NOBODY has to play the Blazers because they will be the only team left.
Draft Targets
Pick #27: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Small Forward, Arizona
The Blazers don’t really have an obvious need to fill, and while adding another body down low would be nice, Kansas PF Cliff Alexander feels like a bit of a reach here. Hollis-Jefferson is a fine pick, however, and would provide extra depth on the wing – something useful considering the free agencies of SG/SF Wesley Mattthews, SG/SF Arron Afflalo, and SF/SG Nicolas Batum over the next couple of years, and all three are slight injury risks as well. A 6’7” lockdown defender with a 7’0” wingspan, Hollis-Jefferson can also slash with the best of them, averaging 11 points on 51% shooting and also chipping in 7 rebounds. Though not a great shooter, the Blazers’ talent will be able to minimize this weakness and allow him to play as a defensive specialist and slasher when on the court.
Season Predictions
Regular Season: The Blazers have had a very talented starting five for awhile now, built upon superstars PG Damian Lillard and PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge, wingmen SG/SF Wesley Matthews SF/SG Nicolas Batum, and anchored by C Robin Lopez. Their bench has long been an issue, but has been addressed for the most part, especially through the recent acquisition fof SG/SF Arron Afflalo from Denver. This is a team with title aspirations and just symbolizes how ridiculously difficult the West really is.
Projected Record: 53-29
Playoffs Round One
Portland Trail Blazers (#4) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (#5)
This is really a matchup of superstars: Lillard vs. Chris Paul at PG and Aldridge vs. Blake Griffin at PF. As Afflalo and Clippers’ sixth man SG Jamal Crawford pretty much cancel out, as does the rest of their respective benches, and the Blazers’ advantage on the wing slightly outweighs C Deandre Jordan’s advantage over Lopez, Portland pretty much already has an edge before you take into account the superstars. Once you do, you realize that Aldridge is a scoring machine with more range and better rebounding ability than Griffin, as well as being a better defender, though he only has relatively minor edges in these departments while Griffin is a better passer. Lillard is as good a defender as Paul and although not as good a distributor, Lillard is an elite scorer who can light it up from deep in a way that Paul only dreams of. It’ll really come down to the superstars in this matchup as both teams have been there and done that as well as having team chemistry, and I have to give the edge to Portland.
Series Prediction: Portland wins 4-3
Playoffs Round Two
Portland Trail Blazers (#4) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (#8)
I have the Thunder “upsetting” the top-seeded Warriors, but it’s not as if the Blazers are catching a break. Batum will have his hands full trying to slow down superstar SF/PF Kevin Durant, as will Lillard against superstar PG/SG Russell Westbrook in what is sure to be an intriguing matchup in the backcourt. Lillard and Batum are excellent defenders, but they can only do so much trying to slow possibly two of the top five players in the league. In addition, Thunder big man PF/C Serge Ibaka will have a similar problem against Aldridge, though he’s an extremely talented defender as well and should be able to contain him somewhat. Oklahoma City, however, has a more talented bench than the Trail Blazers, featuring a second unit of PG D.J Augustin, SG Dion Waiters, SF Kyle Singler, C/PF Enes Kanter, and C Steven Adams, and that’s all without mentioning some other key players. Behind Afflalo, Portland's bench is kind of lacking, and their superstars, unlike against the Clippers, just aren’t as good as their opponent’s superstars, and Ibaka is every bit a star as each of Matthews and Afflalo. Once again, lack of a quality bench is the Blazers’ downfall, though they should address this need in the offseason and be back to go even further next year.
Series Prediction: Oklahoma City wins 4-2
Trade Grades
Trail Blazers get: SG/SF Arron Afflalo, SF Alonzo Gee
Nuggets get: SG Will Barton, PF Thomas Robinson, SF/PF Victor Claver, second-rounder, 2016 first-rounder (lottery-protected, turns into 2 second-rounders if not conveyed)
As the deadline approached, it was evident that Portland needed scoring punch on the wing off the bench. This pretty much narrowed it down to two targets: SF/PF Wilson Chandler or SG/SF Arron Afflalo, both with the Denver Nuggets. I still maintain that they should have chosen the former, but Afflalo is a terrific fit nonetheless. He's averaging 14.5 ppg to go with 1.5 threes, and is a nice luxury to have when you consider SF/SG Nicolas Batum's disappointing season. As a contending team with a need to fill, trading away these future assets for an impact player like Afflalo makes plenty of sense.
Grade: A-
One Trade That Every Team Should Do
Portland gets: SF/PF Wilson Chandler
Nuggets get: PF Thomas Robinson, SF Dorell Wright, Denver’s 2015 second-rounder
Finances: First of all, don’t be confused by the above pick. There’s no typo. Denver previously traded the pick to Portland, who are now trading it back to Denver. Chandler is due for about $13.9 million over the next two years, with a player option on year two, which is very reasonable numbers for someone of Chandler’s caliber. Robinson and Wright are on expiring contracts of $3.7 and $3.1 million, respectively. They are simply cap-fillers, though Robinson still has some upside and Wright can be a useful role player, in allowing Denver to get their own pick back and Portland to acquire a stud sixth man.
The Fit: This is undeniable. Chandler is averaging 14 points and 6 rebounds a game, to go with 2 threes, and would become an instant Sixth Man of the Year candidate for Portland. Wright and Robinson have been mere role players, and sacrificing them and a second-rounder for a player of Chandler’s caliber is well worth it. Starting SF Nicolas Batum has been having a disappointing year, and Portland’s wing depth was thin to begin with, as was their depth overall. Chandler can also slide in and play the four, giving added insurance behind superstar PF LaMarcus Aldridge. This could be the final move that allows Portland to capture that elusive title.
Why the other team does it: Denver, as mentioned in many other teams, is trying to ship away their veterans in favor of younger players. Robinson, a former top five pick, has been largely disappointing in the pros, though he still has potential, while Wright is of little use to the Nuggets. Getting their own second-rounder back also has to help, especially when they plan on tanking. Selling Chandler for assets, as opposed to declining his team option and letting him walk for nothing, makes plenty of sense for the rebuilding Nuggets.
State of the Franchise
Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $52.1 million
Background: After drafting SG/PG Brandon Roy, PF LaMarcus Aldridge, and C Greg Oden over a span of two years, the Blazers supposedly had the core of their future. However, things didn't quite turn out as planned. While all three players constantly battled injuries, only Aldridge overcame them and lived up to his potential. He was, and still is, a double-double threat and was known for his reliable and deadly fade away mid-range jumper. In 2009, they signed him to a 5 year/$65 million extension. Brandon Roy retired and Greg Oden was constantly injured, which left the Blazers with just Aldridge. There were rumors at one point that Aldridge wanted out of Portland, but he was never traded. Then, in the 2012 NBA Draft, they selected PG Damian Lillard sixth overall. He went on to win Rookie of the Year, unanimously, and along with Aldridge was an All Star the next year. Portland made it to the playoffs and knocked out the Houston Rockets in the first round with a Damian Lillard buzzer beater three pointer. They lost in the next round, though, to the Spurs, who went on to win the title. This year, they will be looking to go back to the playoffs and get even further.
Current Financial State: The Blazers are projected to have only $25 million under contract for next season. Many contracts will come off the books this offseason, including those of Aldridge, amnestied Brandon Roy, SG Wesley Matthews, and C Robin Lopez. The Blazers will likely be looking to keep all of them, of course with the exception of the retired Brandon Roy. Aldridge is their star and has repeatedly expressed his interest in staying in Portland as of late, and Matthews and Lopez are key starters and both play a major role in the rotation. Lillard is still on his cheap rookie deal but with his performance so far in his career, he undoubtedly deserves a max extension soon. With his extension coming closer as time passes, Portland will need to maintain some financial flexibility to keep one of their core stars of the present and future.
Targets: The way they've performed so far this season, Portland's primary goals will certainly be to keep all the members of their core starting five that hit free agency: Aldridge, Matthews, and Lopez. Aldridge easily deserves a max contract the way he's been performing this season. Matthews is likely due for something like a 4 year/$48 million deal. Lopez is due for something around a 3 year/$18 million deal. In addition to re-signing their core, the Blazers would like to spend the rest of their money improving their bench, as they have been known for having starters playing really heavy minutes. Portland is likely to go after a wing player for multiple reasons. With Lillard at point guard and Aldridge and Lopez manning the frontcourt, wing is probably the weakest position, even with three point sharpshooters SG Wesley Matthews and SF Nicolas Batum. Secondly, wing might also be their least deep position. In an effort to improve their bench last season, the Trail Blazers went out and signed PG Steve Blake and C Chris Kaman. This provides more depth at PG and C, which gives even more reason to get a wing player this offseason. Lastly, Batum is having a bit of an off-year so far, with his averages dropping although he still fills the stat sheet. For an actual target, they might go after SG/SF Arron Afflalo of the Denver Nuggets. He is a veteran wing player who can shoot threes and provide scoring for them off the bench, something they've wanted for a while. Also, as a title contender, they could always use more leadership and experience, which Afflalo also brings to the team. The Blazers have a lot of money to spend this offseason, and they should make the most of it.
The Fit: The Portland team currently plays really well together, and so all their free agents they are re-signing fit well with them. Having Lillard, Matthews, and Batum gives Portland a lot of floor spacing and it also gives Aldridge lots of room to work in the post or shoot his unstoppable mid-range jumper. Afflalo also fits in really well with Portland. He basically plays a lot like Matthews, capable of draining threes and scoring, except he comes off the bench. By having someone who plays like Matthews come off the bench, they can give Matthews, and even Batum, a breather whenever necessary. As they showed last year, they are a team capable of taking down other Western Conference powerhouses like Houston. By making these improvements, they'll have a championship soon.
Current seeding: 6th
Projected seeding: 7th
If you wanna talk about the best backcourt duos, you gotta talk about Curry and Thompson of Golden State, Lowry and DeRozan of Toronto, and… Lillard and McCollum of Portland?! PG Damian Lillard we already knew was a superstar, and is merely meeting his crazy-high expectations with per-game averages of 25.7 points, 6.9 assists, and 3.1 threes. But McCollum put up all of 6.8 points per game last season, whereas this season he’s averaging 20.7 points and 2.4 threes and is a frontrunner for the Most Improved Player award. Riding the strength of their star backcourt duo, the Blazers are now firmly entrenched in the playoffs. This was a team, need I remind you, that many (yes, including yours truly) predicted to be a West bottom-feeder after losing four-fifths (⅘) of their starting five -- all except Lillard -- this summer. Beyond Lillard and McCollum, the team features many good-but-not-great players, mainly prospects, to complete a very deep bench: SF Al Farouq-Aminu, PF/C Ed Davis, and PF/C Mason Plumlee, round out Portland’s starting five.
First round: San Antonio Spurs (2)
Talk about old school vs. new school. Whereas the Spurs have an average age of 31.6 -- with PF/C Tim Duncan having been to the playoffs every single season of his 19-year career, including five championships -- this will be the first April basketball that many Portland youngsters have ever played. The only way that the Trail Blazers can even put up a fight is if Lillard and McCollum keep bombing away from downtown, but San Antonio ranks second in three-point defense, limiting their opponents to a mere 32.8% from beyond the arc. This can immediately pose issues for a Portland team that is heavily reliant on the three-ball, as they rank fifth in downtown attempts per game. Defensively, the Blazers do have solid defenders like Aminu and Plumlee that could pose some issues for San Antonio’s imposing frontline of SF Kawhi Leonard, PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge, and Duncan, but it’s hard to imagine a headline reading “Portland upsets San Antonio behind Al Farouq-Aminu shutting down Leonard and Aldridge.” Portland is a very young team and already talented, so they’ll be back next year, and the Spurs are the Spurs, so they’ll definitely be back next year (and every successive year for eternity) too.
Prediction: San Antonio wins, 4-1
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Orlando Magic Trade Grades
Click here for link to Cleveland Cavaliers Trade Grades
Cavaliers get: PF Channing Frye
Magic get: SG Jared Cunningham, second-round pick
Blazers get: C/PF Anderson Varejao (waived), top-10 protected 2018 first-rounder (via Cleveland)
As President Neil Olshey put it: “This was an opportunistic way to use our cap room to acquire a valuable asset”. Of course, the 'valuable asset' that the Blazers got here, is that future first-rounder courtesy of the Cavs. That's really all there is to it. Portland didn't give anything of significance, and ended up waiving Varejao's unsightly 2 year/$20 million deal. What more is there to say?
Grade: A
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Portland Trail Blazers' Trade Grades
Heat get: More $$$
Blazers get: PG Brian Roberts, second-round pick
Free is free! Portland here pulled off an absolute beauty. For starters, they don't lose anything, and with the second-rounder, the trade is already a net plus. But Roberts, after being limited to mop-up duty behind PG's Kemba Walker and Jeremy Lin in Charlotte, and also projected to have about the same role in Miami, may finally have found his niche. His presence alone finally gives superstar PG Damian Lillard a legitimate backup, meaning breakout SG/PG C.J McCollum may at last be able to shift alongside his backcourt partner at the shooting guard position more often. Roberts has also shown he is deserving of a backup role this season, averaging 15.7 points per 36 minutes, and the fact that there is zero risk attached to his expiring $2.85 million contract is simply the icing on the cake.
Grade: A+
Power Rankings
Overall Ranking: 27th
Tier: Bottom Feeders
Projected Seeding: 13th in West
What was once "Rip City" is now rather "R.I.P City." Emerging superstar PG Damian Lillard was surrounded by one of basketball's best starting fives, as well as perhaps it's best sixth man, last season, only to see them all disappear this summer. SG/SF Wesley Matthews bolted to Dallas, C Robin Lopez and SG/SF Arron Afflalo (the sixth man) signed with New York, SF/SG Nicolas Batum was dealt to Charlotte for a future prospect (PF/C Noah Vonleh), while of course superstar PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge chose San Antonio. Lillard is now perhaps the only even above-average player on the roster, after being signed to a monstrous extension, but that will change soon. The team is littered with prospects: PG/SG C.J McCollum and of course Lillard in the backcourt; SF Al Farouq-Aminu, SF Moe Harkless, and others battle for minutes on the wing; while C/PF Mason Plumlee, PF/C Noah Vonleh, and C/PF Meyers Leonard are among those who make up the frontcourt rotation. While all of these aforementioned players are under 25 and have potential, none of them (again, other than Lillard obviously) are a sure thing to pan out. Still, with so many high-risk, high-reward prospects, Portland is bound to find at least one "high-reward" guy to be Lillard's running mate in the future, but that still doesn't help the fact that Lillard has little to no help on this team anymore in the present.
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Cleveland Cavaliers Trade Grades
Trail Blazers get: C/PF Brendan Haywood (waived), SF/SG Mike Miller, 2019 and 2020 second-round picks from Cleveland
Cavaliers get: cash considerations, $10.5 million trade exception, $2.85 million trade exception
I mean, free draft picks are free draft picks, right? Portland took advantage of Cleveland’s desperation to acquire those hefty trade exceptions, and they lose absolutely nothing in return. They waived Haywood’s fully non-guaranteed 1 year/$10.5 million contract, so that doesn’t count against their cap at all. The only thing that does count against their cap is Miller’s 1 year/$2.85 million deal, but that is actually very reasonable for an excellent three-point marksman like himself. No need to over-analyze this one. Free draft picks ladies and gentlemen, free picks.
Grade: A
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Brooklyn Nets Trade Grades
Nets get: Draft rights to SF Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (#23 pick), PG Steve Blake
Blazers get: C/PF Mason Plumlee, SG/SF Pat Connaughton (#41 pick)
As the Blazers have two key free agent big men that could go elsewhere, acquiring another quality backup big makes sense. They did have to give up a solid backup point guard and a guy in Hollis-Jefferson that would’ve been a perfect fit, but it looks like they got almost a fair deal here. Almost.
Blake has always been no more than a backup point guard, and that’s especially true now that he’s 35 years old. He can knock down threes, however, as he hit one a game on an efficient 35.2% from beyond the arc. Blake is a solid defender, and also averaged 3.6 assists per game last year, and he can effectively run the second unit, doing so when superstar PG Damian Lillard needed a breather. However, he is very limited offensively, and it won’t be too difficult for the Blazers to replace him.
Hollis-Jefferson is probably the most valuable piece of this deal for either side. The #23 pick has a completely busted jump shot, and although that’s a glaring weakness, it’s really his only one. Hollis-Jefferson is a fantastic defender that can guard multiple positions. He boasts tremendous physical gifts as well: his length, strength, speed, quickness and athleticism are all outstanding, and that stuff just isn’t teachable. He has a high motor, superb handles, and can slash to the basket and finish. His defensive skills and intangibles will translate from college to the NBA right away, but he will need to develop a solid jumper if he wants to become an offensive force in the pros. There was definitely a short and a long-term role for Hollis-Jefferson in Portland, and it’s a shame they couldn’t find away to keep him around, especially with another attractive trade chip in PF/C Noah Vonleh.
Plumlee is a quality big man, a good rotational piece that can rebound and defend, as well as the ability to occasionally get a basket or two. His offensive game is limited, but he’s still just 25 years old and is only a two-year veteran, so there’s more time for development there. His production was sound this season: 8.7 points on an efficient 57.3%, 6.2 rebounds, and a combined 1.6 blocks and steals per game in 21.3 minutes. He shouldn’t be relied upon as a full-time starter, but could usurp C Robin Lopez’s role as a 25-30 minutes per game guy should Lopez depart in free agency.
Connaughton, the #41 pick, could materialize as a solid rotational piece in the pros. The effort is always there with him: he has a high motor, is tough, physical, and is always hard-working when he’s on the floor, especially on defense. He’s also an excellent shooter that already has NBA three-point range (the pro 3-point line is a few feet further back than the college line). However, he is already 22 years old, so his long-term upside has is capped, and really isn’t particularly quick, especially when slashing to the basket. He’s also a bit undersized for his position. Still, he provides excellent insurance for the Blazers, as both SG/SF Wesley Matthews and SG/SF Arron Afflalo hit free agency, with no guarantee of either’s return.
If you add up what the Blazers gave versus what they got, they come out as slight losers of this deal. Connaughton and Blake essentially cancel out, and Plumlee is a guy that you could just have by spending x-million dollars on Robin Lopez. Losing an electric, high-upside guy like Hollis-Jefferson definitely hurts, but Portland got enough in return to not earn too much of a bad grade here.
Grade: B-
Best/Worst Draft Scenarios
(#23 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Drafting SF Justin Anderson (Virginia, Junior)
The Trail Blazers could also use another big man, especially considering that superstar PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge is thinking about leaving. However, SG/SF Wesley Matthews is also hitting free agency, and SF/SG Nicolas Batum is coming off a disappointing season. With the frontcourt being pretty fine as long as Aldridge returns and relatively little depth behind the wing duo, small forward is probably the target for Portland, and Anderson is the perfect fit. He projects to be your prototypical “3 and D” guy, one who can complement superstars nicely by being able to shoot three-pointers and play defense. Anderson is likely the best catch-and-shoot player in the draft, averaging 2 threes per game on a ridiculous 45% shooting from beyond the arc against extremely tough competition in the ACC. He’s also an elite defender with an extremely imposing frame that he uses very well to help him in all facets of his game. However, there really aren’t many facets to Anderson’s game and his potential is limited, but he excels in what he does and is an optimal fit on a team with superstars that’s trying to win now.
Worst Case Scenario: None
Much like the situation with the Bulls, there is no worst case scenario for Portland for the same reason: there are just so many shooters, which is what the Blazers need. If not Anderson, there’s still SG’s R.J. Hunter and Rashad Vaughn that can light it up from deep. These guys would both also fill a hole for Portland on the wings. Again ditto with Chicago, if other teams decide to reach on these shooters, then the Blazers could get a steal at #23. This is what I call a win-winner scenario: a “win” is landing any one of those shooters, and a “winner” is grabbing someone like PF Montrezl Harrell that should be going in the late teens. Therefore, there is no worst case scenario for Portland, as there are just too many shooters and not enough teams picking ahead of them to make something bad happen.
Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams
The Blazers are just like a lot of the other teams: they can go as far as their superstars will take them. PG Damian Lillard and PF LaMarcus Aldridge have proven themselves to be able to carry the team in the playoffs, and if stars SG/SF Arron Afflalo, SF/SG Nicolas Batum, and C Robin Lopez can chip in as well, this is a very threatening team in the postseason that nobody wants to play. If their bench can miraculously step it up and compete with other second units, then other teams might just get their wish: when it’s all said and done, NOBODY has to play the Blazers because they will be the only team left.
Draft Targets
Pick #27: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Small Forward, Arizona
The Blazers don’t really have an obvious need to fill, and while adding another body down low would be nice, Kansas PF Cliff Alexander feels like a bit of a reach here. Hollis-Jefferson is a fine pick, however, and would provide extra depth on the wing – something useful considering the free agencies of SG/SF Wesley Mattthews, SG/SF Arron Afflalo, and SF/SG Nicolas Batum over the next couple of years, and all three are slight injury risks as well. A 6’7” lockdown defender with a 7’0” wingspan, Hollis-Jefferson can also slash with the best of them, averaging 11 points on 51% shooting and also chipping in 7 rebounds. Though not a great shooter, the Blazers’ talent will be able to minimize this weakness and allow him to play as a defensive specialist and slasher when on the court.
Season Predictions
Regular Season: The Blazers have had a very talented starting five for awhile now, built upon superstars PG Damian Lillard and PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge, wingmen SG/SF Wesley Matthews SF/SG Nicolas Batum, and anchored by C Robin Lopez. Their bench has long been an issue, but has been addressed for the most part, especially through the recent acquisition fof SG/SF Arron Afflalo from Denver. This is a team with title aspirations and just symbolizes how ridiculously difficult the West really is.
Projected Record: 53-29
Playoffs Round One
Portland Trail Blazers (#4) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (#5)
This is really a matchup of superstars: Lillard vs. Chris Paul at PG and Aldridge vs. Blake Griffin at PF. As Afflalo and Clippers’ sixth man SG Jamal Crawford pretty much cancel out, as does the rest of their respective benches, and the Blazers’ advantage on the wing slightly outweighs C Deandre Jordan’s advantage over Lopez, Portland pretty much already has an edge before you take into account the superstars. Once you do, you realize that Aldridge is a scoring machine with more range and better rebounding ability than Griffin, as well as being a better defender, though he only has relatively minor edges in these departments while Griffin is a better passer. Lillard is as good a defender as Paul and although not as good a distributor, Lillard is an elite scorer who can light it up from deep in a way that Paul only dreams of. It’ll really come down to the superstars in this matchup as both teams have been there and done that as well as having team chemistry, and I have to give the edge to Portland.
Series Prediction: Portland wins 4-3
Playoffs Round Two
Portland Trail Blazers (#4) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (#8)
I have the Thunder “upsetting” the top-seeded Warriors, but it’s not as if the Blazers are catching a break. Batum will have his hands full trying to slow down superstar SF/PF Kevin Durant, as will Lillard against superstar PG/SG Russell Westbrook in what is sure to be an intriguing matchup in the backcourt. Lillard and Batum are excellent defenders, but they can only do so much trying to slow possibly two of the top five players in the league. In addition, Thunder big man PF/C Serge Ibaka will have a similar problem against Aldridge, though he’s an extremely talented defender as well and should be able to contain him somewhat. Oklahoma City, however, has a more talented bench than the Trail Blazers, featuring a second unit of PG D.J Augustin, SG Dion Waiters, SF Kyle Singler, C/PF Enes Kanter, and C Steven Adams, and that’s all without mentioning some other key players. Behind Afflalo, Portland's bench is kind of lacking, and their superstars, unlike against the Clippers, just aren’t as good as their opponent’s superstars, and Ibaka is every bit a star as each of Matthews and Afflalo. Once again, lack of a quality bench is the Blazers’ downfall, though they should address this need in the offseason and be back to go even further next year.
Series Prediction: Oklahoma City wins 4-2
Trade Grades
Trail Blazers get: SG/SF Arron Afflalo, SF Alonzo Gee
Nuggets get: SG Will Barton, PF Thomas Robinson, SF/PF Victor Claver, second-rounder, 2016 first-rounder (lottery-protected, turns into 2 second-rounders if not conveyed)
As the deadline approached, it was evident that Portland needed scoring punch on the wing off the bench. This pretty much narrowed it down to two targets: SF/PF Wilson Chandler or SG/SF Arron Afflalo, both with the Denver Nuggets. I still maintain that they should have chosen the former, but Afflalo is a terrific fit nonetheless. He's averaging 14.5 ppg to go with 1.5 threes, and is a nice luxury to have when you consider SF/SG Nicolas Batum's disappointing season. As a contending team with a need to fill, trading away these future assets for an impact player like Afflalo makes plenty of sense.
Grade: A-
One Trade That Every Team Should Do
Portland gets: SF/PF Wilson Chandler
Nuggets get: PF Thomas Robinson, SF Dorell Wright, Denver’s 2015 second-rounder
Finances: First of all, don’t be confused by the above pick. There’s no typo. Denver previously traded the pick to Portland, who are now trading it back to Denver. Chandler is due for about $13.9 million over the next two years, with a player option on year two, which is very reasonable numbers for someone of Chandler’s caliber. Robinson and Wright are on expiring contracts of $3.7 and $3.1 million, respectively. They are simply cap-fillers, though Robinson still has some upside and Wright can be a useful role player, in allowing Denver to get their own pick back and Portland to acquire a stud sixth man.
The Fit: This is undeniable. Chandler is averaging 14 points and 6 rebounds a game, to go with 2 threes, and would become an instant Sixth Man of the Year candidate for Portland. Wright and Robinson have been mere role players, and sacrificing them and a second-rounder for a player of Chandler’s caliber is well worth it. Starting SF Nicolas Batum has been having a disappointing year, and Portland’s wing depth was thin to begin with, as was their depth overall. Chandler can also slide in and play the four, giving added insurance behind superstar PF LaMarcus Aldridge. This could be the final move that allows Portland to capture that elusive title.
Why the other team does it: Denver, as mentioned in many other teams, is trying to ship away their veterans in favor of younger players. Robinson, a former top five pick, has been largely disappointing in the pros, though he still has potential, while Wright is of little use to the Nuggets. Getting their own second-rounder back also has to help, especially when they plan on tanking. Selling Chandler for assets, as opposed to declining his team option and letting him walk for nothing, makes plenty of sense for the rebuilding Nuggets.
State of the Franchise
Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $52.1 million
Background: After drafting SG/PG Brandon Roy, PF LaMarcus Aldridge, and C Greg Oden over a span of two years, the Blazers supposedly had the core of their future. However, things didn't quite turn out as planned. While all three players constantly battled injuries, only Aldridge overcame them and lived up to his potential. He was, and still is, a double-double threat and was known for his reliable and deadly fade away mid-range jumper. In 2009, they signed him to a 5 year/$65 million extension. Brandon Roy retired and Greg Oden was constantly injured, which left the Blazers with just Aldridge. There were rumors at one point that Aldridge wanted out of Portland, but he was never traded. Then, in the 2012 NBA Draft, they selected PG Damian Lillard sixth overall. He went on to win Rookie of the Year, unanimously, and along with Aldridge was an All Star the next year. Portland made it to the playoffs and knocked out the Houston Rockets in the first round with a Damian Lillard buzzer beater three pointer. They lost in the next round, though, to the Spurs, who went on to win the title. This year, they will be looking to go back to the playoffs and get even further.
Current Financial State: The Blazers are projected to have only $25 million under contract for next season. Many contracts will come off the books this offseason, including those of Aldridge, amnestied Brandon Roy, SG Wesley Matthews, and C Robin Lopez. The Blazers will likely be looking to keep all of them, of course with the exception of the retired Brandon Roy. Aldridge is their star and has repeatedly expressed his interest in staying in Portland as of late, and Matthews and Lopez are key starters and both play a major role in the rotation. Lillard is still on his cheap rookie deal but with his performance so far in his career, he undoubtedly deserves a max extension soon. With his extension coming closer as time passes, Portland will need to maintain some financial flexibility to keep one of their core stars of the present and future.
Targets: The way they've performed so far this season, Portland's primary goals will certainly be to keep all the members of their core starting five that hit free agency: Aldridge, Matthews, and Lopez. Aldridge easily deserves a max contract the way he's been performing this season. Matthews is likely due for something like a 4 year/$48 million deal. Lopez is due for something around a 3 year/$18 million deal. In addition to re-signing their core, the Blazers would like to spend the rest of their money improving their bench, as they have been known for having starters playing really heavy minutes. Portland is likely to go after a wing player for multiple reasons. With Lillard at point guard and Aldridge and Lopez manning the frontcourt, wing is probably the weakest position, even with three point sharpshooters SG Wesley Matthews and SF Nicolas Batum. Secondly, wing might also be their least deep position. In an effort to improve their bench last season, the Trail Blazers went out and signed PG Steve Blake and C Chris Kaman. This provides more depth at PG and C, which gives even more reason to get a wing player this offseason. Lastly, Batum is having a bit of an off-year so far, with his averages dropping although he still fills the stat sheet. For an actual target, they might go after SG/SF Arron Afflalo of the Denver Nuggets. He is a veteran wing player who can shoot threes and provide scoring for them off the bench, something they've wanted for a while. Also, as a title contender, they could always use more leadership and experience, which Afflalo also brings to the team. The Blazers have a lot of money to spend this offseason, and they should make the most of it.
The Fit: The Portland team currently plays really well together, and so all their free agents they are re-signing fit well with them. Having Lillard, Matthews, and Batum gives Portland a lot of floor spacing and it also gives Aldridge lots of room to work in the post or shoot his unstoppable mid-range jumper. Afflalo also fits in really well with Portland. He basically plays a lot like Matthews, capable of draining threes and scoring, except he comes off the bench. By having someone who plays like Matthews come off the bench, they can give Matthews, and even Batum, a breather whenever necessary. As they showed last year, they are a team capable of taking down other Western Conference powerhouses like Houston. By making these improvements, they'll have a championship soon.
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