Season Predictions 2016
Current seeding: 14th
Projected seeding: 14th
This season was actually supposed to be another intense competition for a playoff spot out West for the Suns. Instead, things quickly spiraled out of control after the season-ending injury to star PG/SG Eric Bledsoe: backcourt running mate PG/SG Brandon Knight also missed considerable time due to injury, Markieff Morris (PF/SF, WAS) was finally traded away for future assets, and key players like C Tyson Chandler and SF/SG P.J Tucker have underwhelmed. But not to fear, Phoenix, for the sun is bright (I kind of made you see what I did there, didn't I?): there is a fresh batch of draft picks coming in the next couple of years, including their own, and youngsters like SG Devin Booker and C Alex Len have impressed amidst the turmoil. Couple that with the sensible management and the return of Bledsoe and Knight, and you realize, despite their atrocious record, that the sun is really shining on Phoenix (I should stop now).
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Washington Wizards Trade Grades
Wizards get: PF/SF Markieff Morris
Suns get: C/PF DeJuan Blair, PF Kris Humphries, 2016 protected first-rounder
What more can you ask for? Morris was extremely unhappy in Phoenix ever since the team traded away his brother, Marcus, to Detroit. Furthermore, the fact that everyone knew of Markieff's unhappiness only lowered Phoenix's leverage, even more so than their current 14-40 record would indicate. But here we see GM Ryan McDonough netting a first-rounder, albeit protected, for the disgruntled forward. Not bad, not bad at all.
Grade: A
Power Rankings
Overall Ranking: 16th
Tier: Playoff Hopefuls
Projected Seeding: 8th in West
It wasn't awful by any stretch, but this offseason didn't go quite as planned for Phoenix. Considered a serious dark-horse contender in the lottery to land superstar PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge's services, the Suns cleared $20+ million of cap space so that they would have the room to sign Aldridge should he have decided to take his talents to the desert -- a risky move. Unfortunately for them, it didn't pay off: the big man chose San Antonio in the end, and Phoenix had just dealt away three quality role players, namely SF/PF Marcus Morris, to Detroit in exchange for absolutely nothing (well, it was in exchange for the cap space that these players were taking up, but it wasn't put to good use as Aldridge didn't sign with Phoenix, if you follow). Worse yet, the separation of him from his twin angered PF/SF Markieff Morris (Marcus' brother) to the point where Phoenix's starting power forward has openly demanded a trade and friction presumably endures behind the scenes. Still, this Suns team is legitimate, to the point where it can overcome a little brotherly-love-gone-wrong. PG/SG Eric Bledsoe and his running mate, PG/SG Brandon Knight, make up an elite backcourt, one that can quickly run the floor and will account for much of the team's scoring and playmaking. Newly signed C Tyson Chandler, although to a questionably expensive deal, is still a top-tier rim defender and rebounder and is an optimal fit on this team. Phoenix is also littered with quality shooters, from rookie SG Devin Booker in the backcourt, to starting SF/SG P.J Tucker on the wing, to PF Mirza Teletovic up front. The depth on this team is also solid, and the only real question mark is if Morris is willing to stay and not be a distraction, or how much the Suns could net in exchange for him via a trade. Still, with young C/PF Alex Len itching for the opportunity to finally become a full-time starter, any fears of Markieff's unhappiness bringing this team down should be quelled.
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Detroit Pistons Trade Grades
Pistons get: PF/SF Marcus Morris, SF/SG Danny Granger, SF/SG Reggie Bullock
Suns get: 2020 second round pick from Detroit
Marcus and Markieff Morris are twins. It’s pretty clear: they look the same, they have the same tattoos, the same facial features, play the same positions, the same everything. But now they have something different to tell them apart: their jerseys. This trade made some sense at the time: the Suns felt that they had a legitimate shot to lure superstar PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge to Phoenix, didn’t have the cap space to sign him, so dealt away a few quality role players to open up a large window of cash that could be used to sign Aldridge, should he choose to sign there. Alas, Aldridge obviously opted to sign with the Spurs in San Antonio. Although hindsight is 20/20, the move was clearly a risky one from the start, and Phoenix came out completely empty-handed. Worse yet, the personal effects of this trade were even worse than the basketball effects. Marcus had always played with his twin Markieff at every level: high school, college, and Markieff was even traded from Houston to Phoenix to unite the two. Again, hindsight is 20/20, but the Suns had to at least have had a suspicion that dealing away one would upset the other. Markieff sure thinks they did: "Everybody knew how bad I wanted to play with my brother, Phoenix knew. For them to trade me without consent or telling me or anything like that was kind of like a, I would say slap in the face." The equal and opposite reaction was for Markieff to demand a trade, and to actually completely give Phoenix’s front office the silent treatment. Yes, my hindsight is surely 20/20, but the Suns will end up losing four quality players over a wish (Aldridge) that was never even granted.
Grade: D+
Major thanks to Corbin Fields (@ctuck_fields) for his significant contribution to this article.
Best/Worst Draft Scenarios
(#13 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Drafting PF Trey Lyles (Kentucky, Freshman)
You could make the case that the Suns should look for a small forward here, given SF/SG Gerald Green’s impending free agency and SF T.J Warren’s relatively disappointing rookie campaign, but there aren’t really a whole lot of great options to choose from. Kelly Oubre Jr. is an interesting one, but although his rebounding and defense could help right away, his jump shot could take a few years to develop, so he wouldn’t really bring anything to the table that Warren can’t. Sam Dekker is also worth a look, but he’s probably too much of a reach for number 13, especially for “best case scenarios.” Therefore, the Suns should look to a big man, and Lyles rises above both Frank Kaminsky and Myles Turner in terms of fit. His stats don’t really do him justice, as he was stuck behind a glut of extremely talented Kentucky big men during the season. However, he still managed to average 8.7 points and 5.2 rebounds on 49% shooting and features an elite basketball I.Q. He has an excellent mid-range game, something that will be absolutely key considering how much the guard duo of Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight like to drive to the paint. His defense is still a work-in-progress, but his rebounding and jumper will be put to use right away in Phoenix.
Worst Case Scenario: Getting either Turner, Kaminsky, or Oubre Jr. forced upon them
This is where things get a little tricky. After a relatively clear top nine of prospects, Miami, Indiana, and Utah are all picking before Phoenix, and all three of them could use a big man. They would be selecting from big men Myles Turner, Trey Lyles, and Frank Kaminsky, though any of the three could also opt for SF Kelly Oubre Jr or SG Devin Booker. Phoenix would like any of these prospects, though ideally they would like some choice between them, which would only happen if one of the three teams picking above them did a minor reach on a prospect outside of this tier (SG Devin Booker, PF/C Bobby Portis, PG Cameron Payne, etc). If Miami, Indiana, and Utah all take one of the aforementioned fivesome (Turner, Lyles, Kaminsky, and Oubre Jr.), then Phoenix won’t really have much choice with their pick, as they would have to take one of the two remaining players -- not necessarily a bad thing if the right guy (Lyles) falls to them, but it’s always better to have options (other than reaching).
Draft Targets
Pick #13: Mario Hezonja, Small Forward/Shooting Guard, Croatia
The Suns would probably go for a big man here, but Arkansas’ PF Bobby Portis is the only big guy worthy of consideration, and I don’t really like his fit for Phoenix. Their front office wouldn’t mind taking Hezonja here, however, as he could be taken as high as 7th by the Pistons. With SF/SG Gerald Green a free agent at season’s end and SF T.J Warren being largely disappointing as a rookie, grabbing a small forward here, considering the value, still makes plenty of sense. Hezonja is averaging 19.5 points per game in the Euroleague, the second best league in the world, and also shooting a blazing 40% from beyond the arc. At 6’8’, he can also play three different positions, and is also lethal in transition. For a Phoenix team that loves to push the pace and run the fast break, that’s a match made in heaven.
Season Predictions
Regular Season: After holding off the Thunder and Pelicans for the final playoff spot out West for the better part of the season, the Suns took a necessary step back at the trade deadline in order to plan for the future, while the Thunder sacrificed part of their future for a playoff run this season. With star PG’s Isaiah Thomas and Goran Dragic out, and star PG/SG Brandon Knight and a plethora of future draft choices in, the Suns are clearly looking to build towards their future. This will be around a backcourt of PG/SG Eric Bledsoe and Knight, while also featuring the Morris twins at the forward spots and yong C Alex Len up front, as well as others and their abundance of draft picks in the future. However, all this future plotting did cost the Suns a playoff berth, though it would’ve been really tough to keep it anyways considering the steps forward that the Thunder took.
Projected Record: 41-41
Trade Grades
Suns get: PG/SG Brandon Knight, PG Kendall Marshall
Milwaukee get: PG/SG Michael Carter-Williams, PG Tyler Ennis, C/PF Miles Plumlee
76ers get: Los Angeles Lakers’ 2015 first-rounder via Phoenix (top 5 protected, turns into top 3 protected pick in 2016 if not conveyed)
Separate deal:
Suns get: SG Marcus Thornton, Cleveland’s 2016 first-rounder via Boston (top 10 protected in 2016, 2017, 2018, unprotected in 2019)
Pistons get: SF Tayshaun Prince
Celtics get: PG Isaiah Thomas, PF Jonas Jerebko, SF Luigi Datome
These deals are really difficult to grade separately, as one happened because of the other. Either because Knight came to Phoenix, Thomas was shipped out; or because Thomas was shipped out, Knight came to Phoenix. You could throw in the Dragic deal as well to grade them all together if you want. All in all, the Suns gave up the Lakers’ pick, which will likely defer to next year as they are on track for one of the five worst records, and got Cleveland’s in return. Marshall is expected to be waived. Ennis, a rookie, was replaced by the more experienced Thornton, and disgruntled big man Miles Plumlee was used to upgrade from Thomas to Knight, who is putting up a career year: 18 points, 5.5 assists, 4.5 rebounds, 2 threes, and 1.5 steals per game. However, this comes at the worst possible time, as Knight is a restricted free agent this summer and will need to get paid significant money. Probably a lot more than $6.75 million a year, which is the steal of a deal that Thomas was on. Don’t get me wrong: this allows Phoenix to be pretty much just as competitive as they were before the deadline, what with battling the Thunder for the final playoff spot out West and all. However, even though this is a huge series of moves by Phoenix in a necessary shakeup of the backcourt, especially if you take the Dragic deal into account too, it’s really the financial aspect of this deal causes a slight net negative for the Suns in these two deals.
Overall Grade: B-
Trade Grades
Suns get: SF/SG Danny Granger, SF/SG John Salmons, C Justin Hamilton, Miami’s 2017 first-rounder (top 7 protected), Miami’s 2021 first-rounder
Heat get: PG/SG Goran Dragic, SG Zoran Dragic (Goran’s brother)
Pelicans get: PG Norris Cole, SF/PF Shawne Williams
GM Ryan McDonough did okay with the package he landed for Dragic (Goran, that is), especially considering the star point guard’s unrestricted free agency at season’s end and his public demanding of a trade. Okay meaning not bad, but certainly not very good. There were many other teams interested in Dragic’s services, so that should be taken into strong consideration when grading this deal. Granger, Salmons, and Hamilton are nothing more than role players that are only included in the trade almost entirely due to their expiring contracts, though Granger has a cheap $2.1 million player option for next season. The picks are nice, and the Heat will almost certainly be outside of the top 8 in 2017, but they’re just too far into the future for a Suns team that has a considerable amount of money committed long-term. This trade alone almost certainly knocked Phoenix out of the playoff race out West, though they saved their chances by acquiring PG Brandon Knight in a separate deal. Still, picks are picks, and two first-rounders are nothing to laugh at.
Grade: B
One Trade That Every Team Should Do
Pheonix gets: C Brook Lopez, Brooklyn's 2016 second-rounder
Houston gets: PG/SG Goran Dragic, C Miles Plumlee
Brooklyn gets: SG Jason Terry, PF Terrence Jones, PF/C Brandan Wright, New Orleans' 2015 first-rounder (via Houston)
Finances, The Fit, and Why the other teams do it: See Houston/Los Angeles Lakers/Minnesota, preferably Houston if you can only read one. Note that the Brook Lopez trade is the most preferable out of the three for Phoenix.
State of the Franchise
Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $16.6 million
Background: A few years ago, after losing franchise PG and two-time league MVP Steve Nash, the Phoenix Suns quietly began rebuilding. Nash was an unrestricted free agent but the Los Angeles Lakers, who wanted to sign him, didn't have enough cap space. The only way to make it work was a sign and trade, so the the Suns ended up getting a couple of first round and second round picks from the deal. That offseason, they also signed PG Goran Dragic, now starting for them, to a 4 year/$30 million deal. In addition, Phoenix traded for PG Eric Bledsoe from the Clippers, at the time backing up All-Star Chris Paul, and Bledsoe had a breakout season in his first season with Phoenix. Last year, the Suns had an excellent start to the season and were looking like a surprise playoff team, but as the season went on, they quietly dropped out of the playoff picture. This season, in an effort to boost their roster in hopes of making the playoffs,they signed PG Isaiah Thomas to a 4 year/$28 million steal of a deal. With their 3 best players all being point guards, the Suns will be looking to make some moves this season to improve their chances at the playoffs.
Current Financial State: Although they signed Bledsoe this year to a new 5 year/$70 million deal, they only have $60 million under contract for next year. This is likely due to the hugely underpaid contracts of Dragic and Thomas, both $7 million per year. Dragic has a player option next year, however, and with the numbers he has put up and his reduced playing time after acquiring Thomas, he is likely to decline it and possibly go elsewhere. After recently extending twins PF Markieff Morris and SF Marcus Morris to a combined 4 year/$52 million, they have a good amount of long term money under contract. As a team trying to make the playoffs, that is not necessarily a bad thing, but they have not made the playoffs yet and the additional flexibility would give the Suns more options. If they make the right moves, they will be able to create some more space and hopefully add the right pieces to help them win a future championship.
Targets: This offseason, and perhaps before the trade deadline, Phoenix will have to make some strategic trades. First of all, they will probably look to trade PG Goran Dragic. Dragic will certainly get a raise from his current $7.5 million expiring salary, likely somewhere around $13 million a year. However, it makes little sense for Phoenix to have so much money tied up in three point guards, after re-signing PG Bledsoe and signing Thomas this offseason. To make the most of the situation, they would have to trade Dragic so they can benefit from his expected departure. Houston has showed lots of interest in acquiring a PG and it would make plenty of sense for them to trade for him. Phoenix has also showed a need for a center that can score down low recently and they have put C Miles Plumlee on the block. A three team trade with Phoenix, Houston, and Minnesota would solve problems for all of them. In this trade, Phoenix would acquire C Nikola Pekovic and PG Mo Williams from Minnesota while giving up Dragic, Plumlee, and recently acquired C Brandan Wright. Houston would receive Dragic and Plumlee while giving up young PF Terrence Jones and the expiring contract of SG Jason Terry. Minnesota would get Wright's expiring deal, plus Terry and Jones, while giving up Pekovic and Williams. A couple of draft picks will likely be involved too, like the New Orleans' first rounder which Houston would give to Minnesota. This trade benefits all the teams involved. Phoenix gets the center they need from dealing Dragic as well as Dragic's veteran replacement, Mo Williams, who can score off the bench. Houston gets their long coveted PG, along with a bonus center who could prove to be useful in the wake of superstar C Dwight Howard's recent injury. Minnesota gets to trade away their highly paid veterans, who they've put on the block for a while, and receive a young prospect along with increased financial flexibility, something rebuilding teams really love, and that’s not even mentioning the first-rounder they’d get from New Orleans via Houston in this trade. A completely three way beneficial trade isn't really that common, but there's one here and all three teams should take this opportunity.
The Fit: There is an easily noticeable fit for every player on their respective new teams. Dragic fits really well with Houston, mainly because he's a serviceable point guard, but also because he can run their offense and dish assists to Howard and Harden. Plumlee fits well because he gives them another center off the bench and as previously mentioned, will fill in for Howard while he's currently injured. Pekovic's fit in Phoenix is an easy one to figure out. They've been lacking that low post scoring from their center and he gives them just that. In addition, they get PG Mo Williams who can score off the bench, as shown by his 52 point outburst this season, and the trade gives them another PG as they're giving up Dragic. Minnesota gets another young prospect to evaluate, and with current PF Thaddeus Young on the block, it helps that he also plays PF. Although the other two are mainly added for financial purposes, they can provide useful minutes off the bench for Minnesota for the rest of this season. With every player fitting so perfectly, it is also good to know that the money for this trade actually works out.
Current seeding: 14th
Projected seeding: 14th
This season was actually supposed to be another intense competition for a playoff spot out West for the Suns. Instead, things quickly spiraled out of control after the season-ending injury to star PG/SG Eric Bledsoe: backcourt running mate PG/SG Brandon Knight also missed considerable time due to injury, Markieff Morris (PF/SF, WAS) was finally traded away for future assets, and key players like C Tyson Chandler and SF/SG P.J Tucker have underwhelmed. But not to fear, Phoenix, for the sun is bright (I kind of made you see what I did there, didn't I?): there is a fresh batch of draft picks coming in the next couple of years, including their own, and youngsters like SG Devin Booker and C Alex Len have impressed amidst the turmoil. Couple that with the sensible management and the return of Bledsoe and Knight, and you realize, despite their atrocious record, that the sun is really shining on Phoenix (I should stop now).
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Washington Wizards Trade Grades
Wizards get: PF/SF Markieff Morris
Suns get: C/PF DeJuan Blair, PF Kris Humphries, 2016 protected first-rounder
What more can you ask for? Morris was extremely unhappy in Phoenix ever since the team traded away his brother, Marcus, to Detroit. Furthermore, the fact that everyone knew of Markieff's unhappiness only lowered Phoenix's leverage, even more so than their current 14-40 record would indicate. But here we see GM Ryan McDonough netting a first-rounder, albeit protected, for the disgruntled forward. Not bad, not bad at all.
Grade: A
Power Rankings
Overall Ranking: 16th
Tier: Playoff Hopefuls
Projected Seeding: 8th in West
It wasn't awful by any stretch, but this offseason didn't go quite as planned for Phoenix. Considered a serious dark-horse contender in the lottery to land superstar PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge's services, the Suns cleared $20+ million of cap space so that they would have the room to sign Aldridge should he have decided to take his talents to the desert -- a risky move. Unfortunately for them, it didn't pay off: the big man chose San Antonio in the end, and Phoenix had just dealt away three quality role players, namely SF/PF Marcus Morris, to Detroit in exchange for absolutely nothing (well, it was in exchange for the cap space that these players were taking up, but it wasn't put to good use as Aldridge didn't sign with Phoenix, if you follow). Worse yet, the separation of him from his twin angered PF/SF Markieff Morris (Marcus' brother) to the point where Phoenix's starting power forward has openly demanded a trade and friction presumably endures behind the scenes. Still, this Suns team is legitimate, to the point where it can overcome a little brotherly-love-gone-wrong. PG/SG Eric Bledsoe and his running mate, PG/SG Brandon Knight, make up an elite backcourt, one that can quickly run the floor and will account for much of the team's scoring and playmaking. Newly signed C Tyson Chandler, although to a questionably expensive deal, is still a top-tier rim defender and rebounder and is an optimal fit on this team. Phoenix is also littered with quality shooters, from rookie SG Devin Booker in the backcourt, to starting SF/SG P.J Tucker on the wing, to PF Mirza Teletovic up front. The depth on this team is also solid, and the only real question mark is if Morris is willing to stay and not be a distraction, or how much the Suns could net in exchange for him via a trade. Still, with young C/PF Alex Len itching for the opportunity to finally become a full-time starter, any fears of Markieff's unhappiness bringing this team down should be quelled.
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Detroit Pistons Trade Grades
Pistons get: PF/SF Marcus Morris, SF/SG Danny Granger, SF/SG Reggie Bullock
Suns get: 2020 second round pick from Detroit
Marcus and Markieff Morris are twins. It’s pretty clear: they look the same, they have the same tattoos, the same facial features, play the same positions, the same everything. But now they have something different to tell them apart: their jerseys. This trade made some sense at the time: the Suns felt that they had a legitimate shot to lure superstar PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge to Phoenix, didn’t have the cap space to sign him, so dealt away a few quality role players to open up a large window of cash that could be used to sign Aldridge, should he choose to sign there. Alas, Aldridge obviously opted to sign with the Spurs in San Antonio. Although hindsight is 20/20, the move was clearly a risky one from the start, and Phoenix came out completely empty-handed. Worse yet, the personal effects of this trade were even worse than the basketball effects. Marcus had always played with his twin Markieff at every level: high school, college, and Markieff was even traded from Houston to Phoenix to unite the two. Again, hindsight is 20/20, but the Suns had to at least have had a suspicion that dealing away one would upset the other. Markieff sure thinks they did: "Everybody knew how bad I wanted to play with my brother, Phoenix knew. For them to trade me without consent or telling me or anything like that was kind of like a, I would say slap in the face." The equal and opposite reaction was for Markieff to demand a trade, and to actually completely give Phoenix’s front office the silent treatment. Yes, my hindsight is surely 20/20, but the Suns will end up losing four quality players over a wish (Aldridge) that was never even granted.
Grade: D+
Major thanks to Corbin Fields (@ctuck_fields) for his significant contribution to this article.
Best/Worst Draft Scenarios
(#13 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Drafting PF Trey Lyles (Kentucky, Freshman)
You could make the case that the Suns should look for a small forward here, given SF/SG Gerald Green’s impending free agency and SF T.J Warren’s relatively disappointing rookie campaign, but there aren’t really a whole lot of great options to choose from. Kelly Oubre Jr. is an interesting one, but although his rebounding and defense could help right away, his jump shot could take a few years to develop, so he wouldn’t really bring anything to the table that Warren can’t. Sam Dekker is also worth a look, but he’s probably too much of a reach for number 13, especially for “best case scenarios.” Therefore, the Suns should look to a big man, and Lyles rises above both Frank Kaminsky and Myles Turner in terms of fit. His stats don’t really do him justice, as he was stuck behind a glut of extremely talented Kentucky big men during the season. However, he still managed to average 8.7 points and 5.2 rebounds on 49% shooting and features an elite basketball I.Q. He has an excellent mid-range game, something that will be absolutely key considering how much the guard duo of Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight like to drive to the paint. His defense is still a work-in-progress, but his rebounding and jumper will be put to use right away in Phoenix.
Worst Case Scenario: Getting either Turner, Kaminsky, or Oubre Jr. forced upon them
This is where things get a little tricky. After a relatively clear top nine of prospects, Miami, Indiana, and Utah are all picking before Phoenix, and all three of them could use a big man. They would be selecting from big men Myles Turner, Trey Lyles, and Frank Kaminsky, though any of the three could also opt for SF Kelly Oubre Jr or SG Devin Booker. Phoenix would like any of these prospects, though ideally they would like some choice between them, which would only happen if one of the three teams picking above them did a minor reach on a prospect outside of this tier (SG Devin Booker, PF/C Bobby Portis, PG Cameron Payne, etc). If Miami, Indiana, and Utah all take one of the aforementioned fivesome (Turner, Lyles, Kaminsky, and Oubre Jr.), then Phoenix won’t really have much choice with their pick, as they would have to take one of the two remaining players -- not necessarily a bad thing if the right guy (Lyles) falls to them, but it’s always better to have options (other than reaching).
Draft Targets
Pick #13: Mario Hezonja, Small Forward/Shooting Guard, Croatia
The Suns would probably go for a big man here, but Arkansas’ PF Bobby Portis is the only big guy worthy of consideration, and I don’t really like his fit for Phoenix. Their front office wouldn’t mind taking Hezonja here, however, as he could be taken as high as 7th by the Pistons. With SF/SG Gerald Green a free agent at season’s end and SF T.J Warren being largely disappointing as a rookie, grabbing a small forward here, considering the value, still makes plenty of sense. Hezonja is averaging 19.5 points per game in the Euroleague, the second best league in the world, and also shooting a blazing 40% from beyond the arc. At 6’8’, he can also play three different positions, and is also lethal in transition. For a Phoenix team that loves to push the pace and run the fast break, that’s a match made in heaven.
Season Predictions
Regular Season: After holding off the Thunder and Pelicans for the final playoff spot out West for the better part of the season, the Suns took a necessary step back at the trade deadline in order to plan for the future, while the Thunder sacrificed part of their future for a playoff run this season. With star PG’s Isaiah Thomas and Goran Dragic out, and star PG/SG Brandon Knight and a plethora of future draft choices in, the Suns are clearly looking to build towards their future. This will be around a backcourt of PG/SG Eric Bledsoe and Knight, while also featuring the Morris twins at the forward spots and yong C Alex Len up front, as well as others and their abundance of draft picks in the future. However, all this future plotting did cost the Suns a playoff berth, though it would’ve been really tough to keep it anyways considering the steps forward that the Thunder took.
Projected Record: 41-41
Trade Grades
Suns get: PG/SG Brandon Knight, PG Kendall Marshall
Milwaukee get: PG/SG Michael Carter-Williams, PG Tyler Ennis, C/PF Miles Plumlee
76ers get: Los Angeles Lakers’ 2015 first-rounder via Phoenix (top 5 protected, turns into top 3 protected pick in 2016 if not conveyed)
Separate deal:
Suns get: SG Marcus Thornton, Cleveland’s 2016 first-rounder via Boston (top 10 protected in 2016, 2017, 2018, unprotected in 2019)
Pistons get: SF Tayshaun Prince
Celtics get: PG Isaiah Thomas, PF Jonas Jerebko, SF Luigi Datome
These deals are really difficult to grade separately, as one happened because of the other. Either because Knight came to Phoenix, Thomas was shipped out; or because Thomas was shipped out, Knight came to Phoenix. You could throw in the Dragic deal as well to grade them all together if you want. All in all, the Suns gave up the Lakers’ pick, which will likely defer to next year as they are on track for one of the five worst records, and got Cleveland’s in return. Marshall is expected to be waived. Ennis, a rookie, was replaced by the more experienced Thornton, and disgruntled big man Miles Plumlee was used to upgrade from Thomas to Knight, who is putting up a career year: 18 points, 5.5 assists, 4.5 rebounds, 2 threes, and 1.5 steals per game. However, this comes at the worst possible time, as Knight is a restricted free agent this summer and will need to get paid significant money. Probably a lot more than $6.75 million a year, which is the steal of a deal that Thomas was on. Don’t get me wrong: this allows Phoenix to be pretty much just as competitive as they were before the deadline, what with battling the Thunder for the final playoff spot out West and all. However, even though this is a huge series of moves by Phoenix in a necessary shakeup of the backcourt, especially if you take the Dragic deal into account too, it’s really the financial aspect of this deal causes a slight net negative for the Suns in these two deals.
Overall Grade: B-
Trade Grades
Suns get: SF/SG Danny Granger, SF/SG John Salmons, C Justin Hamilton, Miami’s 2017 first-rounder (top 7 protected), Miami’s 2021 first-rounder
Heat get: PG/SG Goran Dragic, SG Zoran Dragic (Goran’s brother)
Pelicans get: PG Norris Cole, SF/PF Shawne Williams
GM Ryan McDonough did okay with the package he landed for Dragic (Goran, that is), especially considering the star point guard’s unrestricted free agency at season’s end and his public demanding of a trade. Okay meaning not bad, but certainly not very good. There were many other teams interested in Dragic’s services, so that should be taken into strong consideration when grading this deal. Granger, Salmons, and Hamilton are nothing more than role players that are only included in the trade almost entirely due to their expiring contracts, though Granger has a cheap $2.1 million player option for next season. The picks are nice, and the Heat will almost certainly be outside of the top 8 in 2017, but they’re just too far into the future for a Suns team that has a considerable amount of money committed long-term. This trade alone almost certainly knocked Phoenix out of the playoff race out West, though they saved their chances by acquiring PG Brandon Knight in a separate deal. Still, picks are picks, and two first-rounders are nothing to laugh at.
Grade: B
One Trade That Every Team Should Do
Pheonix gets: C Brook Lopez, Brooklyn's 2016 second-rounder
Houston gets: PG/SG Goran Dragic, C Miles Plumlee
Brooklyn gets: SG Jason Terry, PF Terrence Jones, PF/C Brandan Wright, New Orleans' 2015 first-rounder (via Houston)
Finances, The Fit, and Why the other teams do it: See Houston/Los Angeles Lakers/Minnesota, preferably Houston if you can only read one. Note that the Brook Lopez trade is the most preferable out of the three for Phoenix.
State of the Franchise
Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $16.6 million
Background: A few years ago, after losing franchise PG and two-time league MVP Steve Nash, the Phoenix Suns quietly began rebuilding. Nash was an unrestricted free agent but the Los Angeles Lakers, who wanted to sign him, didn't have enough cap space. The only way to make it work was a sign and trade, so the the Suns ended up getting a couple of first round and second round picks from the deal. That offseason, they also signed PG Goran Dragic, now starting for them, to a 4 year/$30 million deal. In addition, Phoenix traded for PG Eric Bledsoe from the Clippers, at the time backing up All-Star Chris Paul, and Bledsoe had a breakout season in his first season with Phoenix. Last year, the Suns had an excellent start to the season and were looking like a surprise playoff team, but as the season went on, they quietly dropped out of the playoff picture. This season, in an effort to boost their roster in hopes of making the playoffs,they signed PG Isaiah Thomas to a 4 year/$28 million steal of a deal. With their 3 best players all being point guards, the Suns will be looking to make some moves this season to improve their chances at the playoffs.
Current Financial State: Although they signed Bledsoe this year to a new 5 year/$70 million deal, they only have $60 million under contract for next year. This is likely due to the hugely underpaid contracts of Dragic and Thomas, both $7 million per year. Dragic has a player option next year, however, and with the numbers he has put up and his reduced playing time after acquiring Thomas, he is likely to decline it and possibly go elsewhere. After recently extending twins PF Markieff Morris and SF Marcus Morris to a combined 4 year/$52 million, they have a good amount of long term money under contract. As a team trying to make the playoffs, that is not necessarily a bad thing, but they have not made the playoffs yet and the additional flexibility would give the Suns more options. If they make the right moves, they will be able to create some more space and hopefully add the right pieces to help them win a future championship.
Targets: This offseason, and perhaps before the trade deadline, Phoenix will have to make some strategic trades. First of all, they will probably look to trade PG Goran Dragic. Dragic will certainly get a raise from his current $7.5 million expiring salary, likely somewhere around $13 million a year. However, it makes little sense for Phoenix to have so much money tied up in three point guards, after re-signing PG Bledsoe and signing Thomas this offseason. To make the most of the situation, they would have to trade Dragic so they can benefit from his expected departure. Houston has showed lots of interest in acquiring a PG and it would make plenty of sense for them to trade for him. Phoenix has also showed a need for a center that can score down low recently and they have put C Miles Plumlee on the block. A three team trade with Phoenix, Houston, and Minnesota would solve problems for all of them. In this trade, Phoenix would acquire C Nikola Pekovic and PG Mo Williams from Minnesota while giving up Dragic, Plumlee, and recently acquired C Brandan Wright. Houston would receive Dragic and Plumlee while giving up young PF Terrence Jones and the expiring contract of SG Jason Terry. Minnesota would get Wright's expiring deal, plus Terry and Jones, while giving up Pekovic and Williams. A couple of draft picks will likely be involved too, like the New Orleans' first rounder which Houston would give to Minnesota. This trade benefits all the teams involved. Phoenix gets the center they need from dealing Dragic as well as Dragic's veteran replacement, Mo Williams, who can score off the bench. Houston gets their long coveted PG, along with a bonus center who could prove to be useful in the wake of superstar C Dwight Howard's recent injury. Minnesota gets to trade away their highly paid veterans, who they've put on the block for a while, and receive a young prospect along with increased financial flexibility, something rebuilding teams really love, and that’s not even mentioning the first-rounder they’d get from New Orleans via Houston in this trade. A completely three way beneficial trade isn't really that common, but there's one here and all three teams should take this opportunity.
The Fit: There is an easily noticeable fit for every player on their respective new teams. Dragic fits really well with Houston, mainly because he's a serviceable point guard, but also because he can run their offense and dish assists to Howard and Harden. Plumlee fits well because he gives them another center off the bench and as previously mentioned, will fill in for Howard while he's currently injured. Pekovic's fit in Phoenix is an easy one to figure out. They've been lacking that low post scoring from their center and he gives them just that. In addition, they get PG Mo Williams who can score off the bench, as shown by his 52 point outburst this season, and the trade gives them another PG as they're giving up Dragic. Minnesota gets another young prospect to evaluate, and with current PF Thaddeus Young on the block, it helps that he also plays PF. Although the other two are mainly added for financial purposes, they can provide useful minutes off the bench for Minnesota for the rest of this season. With every player fitting so perfectly, it is also good to know that the money for this trade actually works out.
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