Season Predictions 2016
Current seeding: 3rd
Projected seeding: 3rd
Unlike the past few seasons, there have been no hiccups for the Thunder thus far: superstars PG Russell Westbrook and SF/PF Kevin Durant have remained healthy and amazing, Billy Donovan is doing an admirable job in his inaugural head coaching season, and the team has -- for the most part -- avoided distracting rumors about where Durant will end up this summer in free agency. The one thing that I just have to point out, however, is that despite how ridiculous Westbrook and Durant are, that the supporting cast has to pull their weight. PF/C Serge Ibaka has been okay, but hasn’t quite met expectations; this has been offset to an extent by the solid play of centers Enes Kanter and Steven Adams. The most troubling area is perhaps the shooting guard spot, where Randy Foye, Anthony Morrow, and Dion Waiters all have point-per-game numbers well into the single-digits, after each put up 10+ last season. Not only does this spot have to be filled with Durant and Westbrook on the floor, but when they’re off, the rotation gets even worse: rookie PG Cameron Payne, who has met his low expectations for year one, takes Westbrook’s spot, while either Kyle Singler or Andre Roberson fills in for Durant; none of these three players put up more than 6 points per game. And people wonder why this team is always one superstar injury away from disaster. It’s called depth, and the Thunder only look like they have it.
First round: Houston Rockets (6)
Houston has been struggling to find quality production outside of ex-Thunder superstar SG James Harden, as they deal with an underwhelming supporting cast -- very similar to OKC’s situation. But the Thunder have several things going for the in this series. To state the obvious, they have two superstars versus one, and we know how important having elite players is in the postseason. Secondly, the rebound differential is striking: OKC ranks first in the league in rebound rate, while Houston is tied for 21st; this should give the Thunder several extra possessions throughout the series. Thus not only can OKC use their offensive possessions more efficiently, but they will have more as well. Defensively, the Thunder are also the better team. The only real way that Houston can triumph is if defenders like PG Patrick Beverley, SF Trevor Ariza and C Dwight Howard can collectively contain Westbrook and Durant, while Harden goes off for 35+ points per game and the Rocket second-unit outperforms OKC’s. That’s way too many “ifs.”
Prediction: Oklahoma City wins, 4-1
Second round: San Antonio Spurs (2)
This one is sure to be a thriller, as probably two of the three best teams in basketball face off. Immediately coming to find is the 2013-14 Western Conference Finals, the most recent time OKC made the playoffs, where they lost 4-2 to the eventual champions. Has each team improved since then, and by how much?
The Thunder have lost several key role players since then: most notably Reggie Jackson (PG, DET), but also Caron Butler, Jeremy Lamb, Derek Fisher, and Kendrick Perkins; PF/C Serge Ibaka was also enjoying a better season back then compared to this current campaign. The improvements of superstars Westbrook and Durant are not to be overlooked, as are the additions of C Enes Kanter and the replacements for the backcourt and wing players lost. All in all, it seems as if OKC has stayed about even; they actually went 59-23 (0.720) that year, compared to a record of 48-22 (0.686) thus far.
San Antonio, however, is a different story. Other than role players Cory Joseph (PG, TOR) and Marco Belinelli (SG, SAC) -- who have since been easily replaced by guys like PG Andre Miller and SG Kevin Martin -- the Spurs have every single one of their key players from their ‘14 title run. Now you could argue that aging dinosaurs like PF/C Tim Duncan, SG Manu Ginobili, and PG Tony Parker have since declined -- a case only even the least bit compelling, by the way, for the latter two players; Duncan ages like fine wine -- but such a drop-off has been more than offset by the growth of the team. Obviously, SF Kawhi Leonard has since evolved into a complete superstar, and several other role players have improved as well. Even more obviously are the fresh additions to the team: including Miller and Martin, GM R.C Buford has added PF David West and of course star PF LaMArcus Aldridge. Aldridge has adjusted very well with the team, becoming the perfect beta dog to Kawhi and Duncan + Head Coach Gregg Popovich newest trainee. This is an even more dangerous team than the one that slayed LeBron, Wade, and Bosh in the finals -- a very scary thought. The Thunder are very talented, but without a solid second-unit to hold off San Antonio’s elite bench, I’m afraid this will be a 2014 repeat.
Prediction: San Antonio wins, 4-2
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Denver Nuggets Trade Grades
Thunder get: SG Randy Foye
Nuggets get: PF/SF Steve Novak, PG/SG D.J Augustin, two second-rounders
This one’s probably more about the money than anything else, as OKC will reportedly save $9.8 million in salary and luxury tax due to this trade. Either way, the players that the Thunder gave were of little value, as Novak was putting up just 2.4 points in 3.4 minutes in the 7 games he has played this season, while Augustin has averages of a mere 4.2 points in 15.3 minutes per game. Moreover, Augustin’s departure will make way for rookie PG Cameron Payne to be superstar PG/SG Russell Westbrook’s chief backup.
Foye will be of use to the Thunder, but it remains to be seen to what extent. Although OKC’s two best shooting guards are the unimpressive Dion Waiters-Andre Roberson duo, Foye is putting up career-lows in points (6.0) and minutes (19.8) this season. At 32, he’s clearly on the decline, so it’s a good thing his $3.1 million deal is expiring.
So while Foye I suppose is somewhat of a plus, and the savings are great as well, OKC lost two second-rounders here. Thus I can’t go too crazy with their grade.
Grade: B
Power Rankings
Overall Ranking: 4th
Tier: Title Contenders
Projected Seeding: 3rd in West
After a season ruined by injuries, namely to superstars SF/PF Kevin Durant and PG/SG Russell Westbrook, the Thunder finally look healthy and ready for another title run. They better be, as Durant will hit unrestricted free agency this summer, and while OKC looks like the front-runners to keep him around, they are by no means a lock to do so and their success this season could be the determining factor in Durant's upcoming decision. PF/C Serge Ibaka is the ideal complementary piece to the superstar duo of Westbrook and KD, as the big man is an elite rim defender that can rebound and stretch the floor as well. C Enes Kanter, added last season at the trade deadline, provides a third go-to offensive option, other than Durant and Westbrook of course, that this team hasn't had since superstar SG James Harden was traded away to Houston. There are also a plethora of key role players surrounding the team's four stars, from rookie PG Cameron Payne and SG Dion Waiters in the backcourt to C/PF Steven Adams and PF/C Mitch McGary up front. Although SG Jeremy Lamb was curiously dealt away for next to nothing, SF/SG Kyle Singler and SG/SF Anthony Morrow still provide key shooting on the perimeter to space the floor for others. Despite missing the playoffs last year due to injuries and the West looking as deep as ever (which is really saying a lot), expect a deep playoff run and a decent shot at the team's first-ever title in Oklahoma City.
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Boston Celtics Trade Grades
Celtics get: PF/SF Perry Jones, 2019 second-round pick from Detroit
Thunder get: Protected 2018 second-round pick, 2019 second-round pick (both from Boston)
Forget about the confusing swaps of future second-rounders. They matter little to nothing. Really, this trade is just a salary dump: the Thunder wanted to get rid of the $2 million that Jones is owed this season for financial reasons. And although the forward has been largely disappointing considering he was a first-rounder in 2012, he did put up 4.3 points per game this season and is just 23 years old. Jones still possesses some upside, and to say he’s not even worth $2 million is just flat-out wrong. Trading away SG Dion Waiters owed $5.1 million) or PF/C Nick Collison, or even PF/SF Steve Novak (both owed $3.75 million) would’ve made a lot more sense. I get that the Thunder needed to clear cap space after they give C Enes Kanter a big payday, but they dealt away the wrong guy.
Grade: C+
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Charlotte Hornets Trade Grade
Thunder get: PG/SG Luke ridnour, 2016 second-rounder
Hornets get: SG Jeremy Lamb
This one was all about shedding salary for Oklahoma City. Ridnour’s contract is fully non-guaranteed (which is why he is a part of this trade), while Lamb is owed $3 million that the Thunder just simply did not want to pay, and would rather put that money towards keeping around key role player like C Enes Kanter and SF/SG Kyle Singler in free agency. Lamb is still a former #12 pick and posses some upside, but was never really able to carve out a role for himself in Oklahoma City. The second-rounder could perhaps be a future trade asset for this championship-caliber team.
Luke Ridnour is no more than a back-end rotational piece, especially now that he’s 34 years old. He averaged just 4 points and 2 assists last season with the Magic, and shouldn’t be relied upon as a primary backup, and he won’t be in Oklahoma City. Ridnour can occasionally knock down a three, but will just be thrown onto a crowded Thunder backcourt that features plenty of guards already: Russell Westbrook, Dion Waiters, Anthony Morrow, D.J Augustin, and rookie Cameron Payne, to name a few. Ridnour was merely acquired due to his non-guaranteed contract for salary cap purposes.
Second-rounders are really the penny stock of the NBA, having little value and generally just being throw-ins on deals. Sure, occasionally you’ll find a solid rotational piece, or even a starter, or a once-in-a-decade Manu Ginobili floating in round #2, but generally the picks never really pan out. They have little actual value other than merely being General Manager’s currency. The only value this pick would really hold to a title contender like the Thunder would be via another trade, as they’re not interested in outside shots of properly developing long-term prospects, especially considering their current status.
Oklahoma City is officially waving the white flag on the deal that sent superstar SG James Harden to Houston, as Lamb was one of the last major parts of the package that the Thunder received in exchange for Harden. Picked 12th overall just three years ago, the Thunder were never able to carve out a role for the knockdown shooter, but that’s also partially on him. Lamb has been somewhat of a disappointment, as he averaged just 6.3 points per game and 0.8 threes on an average 34.2% shooting from downtown in just 13.5 minutes, and was injured for half the year. Perhaps most alarming is his lack of development, as he was slightly better across the board in 2014 than in this past season; this could cap his upside. This forced the Thunder to sell-low on the shooting guard, but opening up the cap space was necessary. Kanter and Singler are more important than Lamb and that’s who Oklahoma City should be spending their money on.Besides, their depth at shooting guard made the UCONN product fairly expendable anyways.
I do get the need for opening up the cap space, I really do. I also understand the lack of leverage that the Thunder must’ve had, as Ridnour was one of the very few fully non-guaranteed contracts that could even out Lamb’s money in a trade, not to mention how expendable Lamb was from OKC’s perspective. However, on the other side, Lamb presents an optimal fit in Charlotte, so it’s not like the Thunder were backed into a corner in negotiations. Lamb is still a former first-round pick that still presents upside and immediate three-point shooting, and simply getting cap relief plus a second-rounder in exchange makes me feel like the Thunder got an average deal at best.
Grade: B
Best/Worst Draft Scenarios
(#14 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Drafting PF/C Frank Kaminsky (Wisconsin, Senior)
Trading the pick for veterans is certainly a strong possibility, with a potential trade partner in the Denver Nuggets, but it wouldn’t make all that much sense long-term for the franchise. If they swapped the pick for the expiring contracts (something necessary considering that they must have the maximum amount of cap space this offseason to re-sign superstar SF/PF Kevin Durant) of say, SF/SG Wilson Chandler and PF/C J.J Hickson, Oklahoma City would instantly become among the favorites to win the title, but after that, they would have major salary cap strife trying to re-sign these guys. If they can’t, it would simply be swapping a lottery pick in a talented class for a couple of one-year rentals. Instead, by nabbing a guy like Kaminsky, the Thunder can enjoy his cheap rookie deal for a full four years while still having a guy that could contribute right away and potentially start for them in due time. The winner of both the Naismith and Wooden awards, Kaminsky averaged 19 points, 8 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks per game on very efficient shooting. He will play a role in some capacity, and will be especially important if C Enes Kanter doesn’t get re-signed this offseason. Though he has relatively low potential, Kaminsky will be among the frontrunners for Rookie of the Year.
Worst Case Scenario: None
There are just too many players that the Thunder would be satisfied with here. From big men like PF Trey Lyles and PF/C Frank Kaminsky, to wing players like SF Kelly Oubre Jr, SG Devin Booker, and SF Sam Dekker, to PG Cameron Payne, Oklahoma City can take whoever they feel fills the biggest need. According to reports, they really like Payne. While that wouldn’t be a bad pick by any means, they should definitely keep their options open. And with no obvious position of need to fill, Oklahoma City can take whoever they want and it would be fine.
Draft Targets
Pick #18: Montrezl Harrell, Power Forward/Center, Louisville
Given C Enes Kanter’s impending free agency and not enough quality big bodies around in case he leaves, taking a big man makes sense, and Harrell is the best one available at this point. His rebounding, at 9.5 per game, is second to none among the top prospects. Neither is his scoring and efficiency, where he averages 15.7 points on 57% shooting and 81.5% from around the rim. An athletic freak that can also defend and bring toughness and energy to the table, Harrell would be the perfect complementary piece on a star-studded team.
Season Predictions
Regular Season: When superstars PG/SG Russell Westbrook and SF/PF Kevin Durant had to miss the beginning of the season and their team was lead to a dismal start in their absence, there were serious questions over whether this team would make the playoffs, questions that lingered up until a couple weeks ago and were even rekindled after Durant had to miss even more time. Not anymore. Westbrook has been playing like an MVP, Durant has been playing like a reigning MVP (funny how that works) when healthy, star PF/C Serge Ibaka has stepped up, and numerous trade acquisitions this year have revamped what used to be a very weak bench. Though their record and seeding might not indicate it, due to injuries and an impossible conference respectively, Oklahoma City is as much of a title contender as anybody.
Projected Record: 48-34
Playoffs Round One
Golden State Warriors (#1) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (#8)
As they are the lowest seed in the best conference, the Thunder have to play the best team in the best conference in the first round. However, the Warriors’ regular season may just be only that: regular season success. As great as “The Splash Brothers” (superstar PG/SG Stephen Curry and SG/SF Klay Thompson) have been, nobody on the team really has any playoff success. In addition, many players are injury-prone, such as Curry and C Andrew Bogut among others, and getting one come playoff time would be a huge blow. On the flip side, Westbrook, Durant, and Ibaka have all had a lot of success together, and now with a revamped bench, they have to be considered the favorites, despite the difference in seeding. This series could easily go the other way, but my money’s on the team with more star power and more postseason success.
Series Prediction: Oklahoma City wins 4-3
Playoffs Round Two
Portland Trail Blazers (#4) vs. Oklahoma City (#8)
Another tough test for the Thunder, as the Blazers feature a couple of superstars of their own in PG Damian Lillard and PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge. Westbrook has the slight edge over Lillard, and it’ll be interesting to see if Ibaka can limit Aldridge more than SF/SG Nicolas Batum can limit Durant, though the answer is likely a slight yes. Unlike last series, what will really win this one for Oklahoma City is their bench. Outside of SG Arron Afflalo, Portland is really lacking quality players behind a very impressive starting five, and as discussed above in “regular season”, the Thunder are not, thanks to multiple trades. Even though Westbrook and Durant will likely outshine Lillard and Aldridge, Oklahoma City is going to need help from their bench if they want to win this series.
Series Prediction: Oklahoma City wins 4-2
Playoffs Round Three (Conference Finals)
Houston Rockets (#3) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (#8)
My pick for MVP, superstar SG James Harden, returns to face his former team, and along with him brings a flurry of defensive studs: F Trevor Ariza, PF Josh Smith, superstar C Dwight Howard, as well as a ridiculous bench revamped at the trade deadline. He’s facing his former teammates in Westbrook, Durant, and Ibaka, as well as a bench that was also improved at the deadline. So how can the Rockets win this series? Same way they do every other: stop everyone else on defense and let Harden go to work on offense while not letting the opposing team double-team him. The rest of the starting five are all excellent defenders, and Ariza and Beverley should do a lot to contain Westbrook and Durant while Smith, Howard, and the rest of a very fearsome frontcourt rotation should be able to control the paint. This means more driving lanes for Harden, and as you can’t really double-team him as everyone else is either a good shooter or named Dwight Howard, you can barely even hope to contain him based on how good he is. Houston’s bench at least matches up with the Thunder’s and they have the same amount of playoff experience and team chemistry as Oklahoma City does as well. Because of this, if Westbrook and Durant are held in check, Harden should be able to get revenge against his former team.
Series Prediction: Houston wins 4-3
Trade Grades
Thunder get: PG D.J Augustin, C Enes Kanter, SF/SG Kyle Singler, PF Steve Novak
Pistons get: PG Reggie Jackson
Jazz get: PF Grant Jerrett, C Kendrick Perkins, C Tibor Pleiss, Oklahoma City’s 2017 first-rounder
Jackson needed to be dealt, that much was obvious. The 24 year old was disgruntled as a backup, and that wasn’t going to change with superstar PG Russell Westbrook ahead of him on the depth chart. Despite teams knowing this, the Thunder got an impressive haul for the point guard. They gave up their first-rounder in 2017, yes, but that shouldn’t be of much value as long as superstar SF/PF Kevin Durant sticks around past 2016, and the other pieces involved in this deal are pretty much irrelevant. In return, the Thunder got Augustin, who will replace Jackson as the backup to Westbrook. Averaging 10.5 points, 5 assists, and 1 three per game, that shouldn’t be much of a downgrade. Singler will provide valuable floor-spacing, as the Duke product is knocking down 1.5 threes a game this season. Novak is also known for stretching the defense, as he is hitting 0.7 threes a game in just 5 minutes, which translates to a ridiculous 5 threes per 36 minutes. Kanter, while infamous for his poor defense, is still averaging 14 points and 8 rebounds per game, and star PF/C Serge Ibaka can help alleviate some of Kanter’s mishaps on the less glamorous side of the ball. The Thunder got several key role players in this deal that could prove critical as they try to please Durant while simultaneously compete for a title.
Grade: A-
One Trade That Every Team Should Do
Oklahoma City gets: PF/C Luis Scola, SF Chris Copeland, PG Donald Sloan, PF Shayne Whittington, Indiana’s 2017 first-rounder, Golden State’s 2015 second-rounder (via Indiana)
Indiana gets: PG Reggie Jackson, C Kendrick Perkins
Finances: I suggest you see Indiana for an explanation on this one. I’ll just quote it:
“A lot of the players involved in this deal are just to make the money work, but there are a few key players that the teams actually want. Scola, Copeland, and Sloan are all on expiring contracts, worth $4.5, $3.1, and $1 million respectively, but calling them contract fill-ins would be insulting to the solid seasons each are having. Whittington, who’s a bench warmer, is due for just $500,000 this year, after which his deal ends, and he is certainly a contract fill-in. This is also the case for Perkins, whose hefty expiring $9.2 million deal is critical in making the finances work. Jackson is the star of this trade, and is playing on the last year of his rookie contract at just $2.3 million, and is most definitely due for a raise this offseason. For both teams, the money is not much of an issue as all of these deals don’t run past this season.”
The Fit: Quote from ‘why the other team does it’ paragraph under Indiana:
“Oklahoma City actually has little use for Jackson, as they have Westbrook to run the point, as well as the newly acquired SG Dion Waiters to be the go-to scorer in the second unit. Trading him makes the most sense, especially considering how unhappy he is, and this is the perfect package. Scola is averaging a solid 9 points and 6 rebounds, Copeland chips in 1.2 threes a game, and Sloan does a bit of everything, as he puts up 9.5 points, 4.5 assists, 3.5 rebounds and a three per contest. Sloan would fill in for Jackson as the backup to Westbrook, and Scola and Copeland would play key minutes for the Thunder’s relatively thin rotation behind Durant and up front, which is barely affected by the loss of Perkins. The picks also help, and could be used as trade bait to land other players in Oklahoma City. Losing Jackson hurts, but Sloan can replace him just as well, and the Thunder get many other assets to boot.”
Why the other team does it: Again, see the Indiana Pacers for an explanation on this trade. I’ll quote ‘the fit’ paragraph for an explanation on the Pacers’ motives here:
“Jackson has been openly frustrated about his role backing up superstar PG Russell Westbrook for the Thunder, saying that he wants a starting gig. He can easily get that In Indiana, as the Pacers look to add another piece for the title run they look to have next season, where superstar SF/SG Paul George will return from his gruesome injury suffered last summer. Jackson easily deserves a starting role, as he averaged 19.5 points, 7.5 assists, and 5.5 rebounds when handed 38 minutes a game in November, where Westbrook and superstar teammate SF/PF Kevin Durant were riding the pine with injuries. Though he only connected on 41.5% of his shots and coughed up the ball 3.2 times a game, those stats certainly scream starter, if not all-star. Losing key role players in Scola, Copeland, and Sloan certainly hurts, as do the picks, but it is well worth it to snag someone with as much potential as Jackson.”
State of the Franchise
Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $7.1 million
Background: The Thunder have been an extremely competitive team these past couple of years, built around a core of 2013 MVP Kevin Durant, superstar PG Russell Westbrook, and star PF/C Serge Ibaka. Durant is a 3-time scoring champion, and Westbrook and Ibaka have no problems scoring as well, with Ibaka being one of the elite rim-protectors in the league. Westbrook is an excellent defender and Ibaka is one of the league's best elite shot blockers. The Thunder made the Finals in 2013 but lost to the Miami Heat in a 5 game series. As a small market team, the Thunder are known for their unwillingness to pay any luxury tax, even as a championship team. They traded their 6th Man of the Year SG James Harden because he was due for a new contract and they didn't want to pay the amount he earned. They have been a constant playoff team these past few years, but have been constantly plagued by injuries to superstars Durant and Westbrook. With a couple of minor moves, they should be a huge favorite for the title.
Current Financial State: The Thunder are expected to have $70 million tied up in contracts. Most of their money is committed to their stars. Durant is being paid $20 million, Westbrook $17 million, and Ibaka $12 million. Durant is going to be a free agent in the stacked 2016 free agent class, which includes names like LeBron James and Chris Paul. Westbrook and Ibaka are under contract for one year after that, until 2017. The Thunder recently traded for SG Dion Waiters who's on his rookie contract, and they are now putting PG Reggie Jackson on the block. While Westbrook was injured, Jackson filled in phenomenally. As a free agent this coming offseason, Jackson is due for a contract much larger than his current $2 million deal. Another contract they have been striving to move for a while now is C Kendrick Perkins' $9 million contract, which expires after this year. After drafting C Steven Adams in the 2013 NBA Draft, Perkins has moved into a bench role and is being paid too much for the Thunder's liking. Before this deadline, the Thunder will be looking to move Jackson and Perkins for more talented or affordable players.
Targets: The Thunder have reportedly been interested in Brooklyn Nets C Brook Lopez, as the Nets have been shopping Lopez's contract in hope to free up cap space. Oklahoma City would likely have to move Perkins' $9 million expiring deal among other pieces, likely rookie PF Mitch McGary in order to acquire Lopez. McGary is averaging 10 points on a blazing-hot 65% shooting, as well as 6 rebounds in just 14 minutes per game, albeit just playing four games. The Michigan standout would be an excellent fit next to C Mason Plumlee in the Nets’ frontcourt. For the Thunder, they would receive a productive, scoring center in Lopez to pair with defensive stud Ibaka. The Nets would receive financial relief in Perkins' expiring contract, something they've been looking for. A possible team that could be looking to acquire Reggie Jackson is the Indiana Pacers. Paul George is out for the year after his gruesome preseason injury, and the Pacers haven't received much scoring from PG George Hill, PF David West and C Roy Hibbert. With Jackson, they get a scoring guard who can also distribute the ball and run the offense. The Thunder will likely give away Jackson and Perkins and get PG Donald Sloan in return, along with veteran PF David West. West’s leadership helps the Thunder and contract comes off before 2016 free agency where the Thunder will need as much money as possible to re-sign Durant. Donald Sloan plays like Jackson but is on a much more affordable deal and isn't expected to get as substantial a raise as Jackson is. By making these moves, the Thunder can simultaneously add more talent while not ruining their financial future.
The Fit: Whether they get Lopez or Sloan and West, the Thunder will be receiving players who can quickly fit into their offensive and defensive scheme. Lopez will give them more scoring from the 5 and add some more rim protection along with Ibaka. His lack of rebounding ability can easily be compensated by Ibaka and Durant's, as well as Westbrook's not uncommon triple doubles. Sloan fits in with the Thunder because he can score. Jackson will essentially be replaced by recently acquired Dion Waiters, but Sloan can provide additional scoring too. West fits really well, also. As a championship team, they could really use some veteran leadership and the power forward’s scoring and rebounding off the bench. If they make the right moves this offseason, they could keep Durant past his free agency and go on to win a championship.
Current seeding: 3rd
Projected seeding: 3rd
Unlike the past few seasons, there have been no hiccups for the Thunder thus far: superstars PG Russell Westbrook and SF/PF Kevin Durant have remained healthy and amazing, Billy Donovan is doing an admirable job in his inaugural head coaching season, and the team has -- for the most part -- avoided distracting rumors about where Durant will end up this summer in free agency. The one thing that I just have to point out, however, is that despite how ridiculous Westbrook and Durant are, that the supporting cast has to pull their weight. PF/C Serge Ibaka has been okay, but hasn’t quite met expectations; this has been offset to an extent by the solid play of centers Enes Kanter and Steven Adams. The most troubling area is perhaps the shooting guard spot, where Randy Foye, Anthony Morrow, and Dion Waiters all have point-per-game numbers well into the single-digits, after each put up 10+ last season. Not only does this spot have to be filled with Durant and Westbrook on the floor, but when they’re off, the rotation gets even worse: rookie PG Cameron Payne, who has met his low expectations for year one, takes Westbrook’s spot, while either Kyle Singler or Andre Roberson fills in for Durant; none of these three players put up more than 6 points per game. And people wonder why this team is always one superstar injury away from disaster. It’s called depth, and the Thunder only look like they have it.
First round: Houston Rockets (6)
Houston has been struggling to find quality production outside of ex-Thunder superstar SG James Harden, as they deal with an underwhelming supporting cast -- very similar to OKC’s situation. But the Thunder have several things going for the in this series. To state the obvious, they have two superstars versus one, and we know how important having elite players is in the postseason. Secondly, the rebound differential is striking: OKC ranks first in the league in rebound rate, while Houston is tied for 21st; this should give the Thunder several extra possessions throughout the series. Thus not only can OKC use their offensive possessions more efficiently, but they will have more as well. Defensively, the Thunder are also the better team. The only real way that Houston can triumph is if defenders like PG Patrick Beverley, SF Trevor Ariza and C Dwight Howard can collectively contain Westbrook and Durant, while Harden goes off for 35+ points per game and the Rocket second-unit outperforms OKC’s. That’s way too many “ifs.”
Prediction: Oklahoma City wins, 4-1
Second round: San Antonio Spurs (2)
This one is sure to be a thriller, as probably two of the three best teams in basketball face off. Immediately coming to find is the 2013-14 Western Conference Finals, the most recent time OKC made the playoffs, where they lost 4-2 to the eventual champions. Has each team improved since then, and by how much?
The Thunder have lost several key role players since then: most notably Reggie Jackson (PG, DET), but also Caron Butler, Jeremy Lamb, Derek Fisher, and Kendrick Perkins; PF/C Serge Ibaka was also enjoying a better season back then compared to this current campaign. The improvements of superstars Westbrook and Durant are not to be overlooked, as are the additions of C Enes Kanter and the replacements for the backcourt and wing players lost. All in all, it seems as if OKC has stayed about even; they actually went 59-23 (0.720) that year, compared to a record of 48-22 (0.686) thus far.
San Antonio, however, is a different story. Other than role players Cory Joseph (PG, TOR) and Marco Belinelli (SG, SAC) -- who have since been easily replaced by guys like PG Andre Miller and SG Kevin Martin -- the Spurs have every single one of their key players from their ‘14 title run. Now you could argue that aging dinosaurs like PF/C Tim Duncan, SG Manu Ginobili, and PG Tony Parker have since declined -- a case only even the least bit compelling, by the way, for the latter two players; Duncan ages like fine wine -- but such a drop-off has been more than offset by the growth of the team. Obviously, SF Kawhi Leonard has since evolved into a complete superstar, and several other role players have improved as well. Even more obviously are the fresh additions to the team: including Miller and Martin, GM R.C Buford has added PF David West and of course star PF LaMArcus Aldridge. Aldridge has adjusted very well with the team, becoming the perfect beta dog to Kawhi and Duncan + Head Coach Gregg Popovich newest trainee. This is an even more dangerous team than the one that slayed LeBron, Wade, and Bosh in the finals -- a very scary thought. The Thunder are very talented, but without a solid second-unit to hold off San Antonio’s elite bench, I’m afraid this will be a 2014 repeat.
Prediction: San Antonio wins, 4-2
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Denver Nuggets Trade Grades
Thunder get: SG Randy Foye
Nuggets get: PF/SF Steve Novak, PG/SG D.J Augustin, two second-rounders
This one’s probably more about the money than anything else, as OKC will reportedly save $9.8 million in salary and luxury tax due to this trade. Either way, the players that the Thunder gave were of little value, as Novak was putting up just 2.4 points in 3.4 minutes in the 7 games he has played this season, while Augustin has averages of a mere 4.2 points in 15.3 minutes per game. Moreover, Augustin’s departure will make way for rookie PG Cameron Payne to be superstar PG/SG Russell Westbrook’s chief backup.
Foye will be of use to the Thunder, but it remains to be seen to what extent. Although OKC’s two best shooting guards are the unimpressive Dion Waiters-Andre Roberson duo, Foye is putting up career-lows in points (6.0) and minutes (19.8) this season. At 32, he’s clearly on the decline, so it’s a good thing his $3.1 million deal is expiring.
So while Foye I suppose is somewhat of a plus, and the savings are great as well, OKC lost two second-rounders here. Thus I can’t go too crazy with their grade.
Grade: B
Power Rankings
Overall Ranking: 4th
Tier: Title Contenders
Projected Seeding: 3rd in West
After a season ruined by injuries, namely to superstars SF/PF Kevin Durant and PG/SG Russell Westbrook, the Thunder finally look healthy and ready for another title run. They better be, as Durant will hit unrestricted free agency this summer, and while OKC looks like the front-runners to keep him around, they are by no means a lock to do so and their success this season could be the determining factor in Durant's upcoming decision. PF/C Serge Ibaka is the ideal complementary piece to the superstar duo of Westbrook and KD, as the big man is an elite rim defender that can rebound and stretch the floor as well. C Enes Kanter, added last season at the trade deadline, provides a third go-to offensive option, other than Durant and Westbrook of course, that this team hasn't had since superstar SG James Harden was traded away to Houston. There are also a plethora of key role players surrounding the team's four stars, from rookie PG Cameron Payne and SG Dion Waiters in the backcourt to C/PF Steven Adams and PF/C Mitch McGary up front. Although SG Jeremy Lamb was curiously dealt away for next to nothing, SF/SG Kyle Singler and SG/SF Anthony Morrow still provide key shooting on the perimeter to space the floor for others. Despite missing the playoffs last year due to injuries and the West looking as deep as ever (which is really saying a lot), expect a deep playoff run and a decent shot at the team's first-ever title in Oklahoma City.
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Boston Celtics Trade Grades
Celtics get: PF/SF Perry Jones, 2019 second-round pick from Detroit
Thunder get: Protected 2018 second-round pick, 2019 second-round pick (both from Boston)
Forget about the confusing swaps of future second-rounders. They matter little to nothing. Really, this trade is just a salary dump: the Thunder wanted to get rid of the $2 million that Jones is owed this season for financial reasons. And although the forward has been largely disappointing considering he was a first-rounder in 2012, he did put up 4.3 points per game this season and is just 23 years old. Jones still possesses some upside, and to say he’s not even worth $2 million is just flat-out wrong. Trading away SG Dion Waiters owed $5.1 million) or PF/C Nick Collison, or even PF/SF Steve Novak (both owed $3.75 million) would’ve made a lot more sense. I get that the Thunder needed to clear cap space after they give C Enes Kanter a big payday, but they dealt away the wrong guy.
Grade: C+
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Charlotte Hornets Trade Grade
Thunder get: PG/SG Luke ridnour, 2016 second-rounder
Hornets get: SG Jeremy Lamb
This one was all about shedding salary for Oklahoma City. Ridnour’s contract is fully non-guaranteed (which is why he is a part of this trade), while Lamb is owed $3 million that the Thunder just simply did not want to pay, and would rather put that money towards keeping around key role player like C Enes Kanter and SF/SG Kyle Singler in free agency. Lamb is still a former #12 pick and posses some upside, but was never really able to carve out a role for himself in Oklahoma City. The second-rounder could perhaps be a future trade asset for this championship-caliber team.
Luke Ridnour is no more than a back-end rotational piece, especially now that he’s 34 years old. He averaged just 4 points and 2 assists last season with the Magic, and shouldn’t be relied upon as a primary backup, and he won’t be in Oklahoma City. Ridnour can occasionally knock down a three, but will just be thrown onto a crowded Thunder backcourt that features plenty of guards already: Russell Westbrook, Dion Waiters, Anthony Morrow, D.J Augustin, and rookie Cameron Payne, to name a few. Ridnour was merely acquired due to his non-guaranteed contract for salary cap purposes.
Second-rounders are really the penny stock of the NBA, having little value and generally just being throw-ins on deals. Sure, occasionally you’ll find a solid rotational piece, or even a starter, or a once-in-a-decade Manu Ginobili floating in round #2, but generally the picks never really pan out. They have little actual value other than merely being General Manager’s currency. The only value this pick would really hold to a title contender like the Thunder would be via another trade, as they’re not interested in outside shots of properly developing long-term prospects, especially considering their current status.
Oklahoma City is officially waving the white flag on the deal that sent superstar SG James Harden to Houston, as Lamb was one of the last major parts of the package that the Thunder received in exchange for Harden. Picked 12th overall just three years ago, the Thunder were never able to carve out a role for the knockdown shooter, but that’s also partially on him. Lamb has been somewhat of a disappointment, as he averaged just 6.3 points per game and 0.8 threes on an average 34.2% shooting from downtown in just 13.5 minutes, and was injured for half the year. Perhaps most alarming is his lack of development, as he was slightly better across the board in 2014 than in this past season; this could cap his upside. This forced the Thunder to sell-low on the shooting guard, but opening up the cap space was necessary. Kanter and Singler are more important than Lamb and that’s who Oklahoma City should be spending their money on.Besides, their depth at shooting guard made the UCONN product fairly expendable anyways.
I do get the need for opening up the cap space, I really do. I also understand the lack of leverage that the Thunder must’ve had, as Ridnour was one of the very few fully non-guaranteed contracts that could even out Lamb’s money in a trade, not to mention how expendable Lamb was from OKC’s perspective. However, on the other side, Lamb presents an optimal fit in Charlotte, so it’s not like the Thunder were backed into a corner in negotiations. Lamb is still a former first-round pick that still presents upside and immediate three-point shooting, and simply getting cap relief plus a second-rounder in exchange makes me feel like the Thunder got an average deal at best.
Grade: B
Best/Worst Draft Scenarios
(#14 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Drafting PF/C Frank Kaminsky (Wisconsin, Senior)
Trading the pick for veterans is certainly a strong possibility, with a potential trade partner in the Denver Nuggets, but it wouldn’t make all that much sense long-term for the franchise. If they swapped the pick for the expiring contracts (something necessary considering that they must have the maximum amount of cap space this offseason to re-sign superstar SF/PF Kevin Durant) of say, SF/SG Wilson Chandler and PF/C J.J Hickson, Oklahoma City would instantly become among the favorites to win the title, but after that, they would have major salary cap strife trying to re-sign these guys. If they can’t, it would simply be swapping a lottery pick in a talented class for a couple of one-year rentals. Instead, by nabbing a guy like Kaminsky, the Thunder can enjoy his cheap rookie deal for a full four years while still having a guy that could contribute right away and potentially start for them in due time. The winner of both the Naismith and Wooden awards, Kaminsky averaged 19 points, 8 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks per game on very efficient shooting. He will play a role in some capacity, and will be especially important if C Enes Kanter doesn’t get re-signed this offseason. Though he has relatively low potential, Kaminsky will be among the frontrunners for Rookie of the Year.
Worst Case Scenario: None
There are just too many players that the Thunder would be satisfied with here. From big men like PF Trey Lyles and PF/C Frank Kaminsky, to wing players like SF Kelly Oubre Jr, SG Devin Booker, and SF Sam Dekker, to PG Cameron Payne, Oklahoma City can take whoever they feel fills the biggest need. According to reports, they really like Payne. While that wouldn’t be a bad pick by any means, they should definitely keep their options open. And with no obvious position of need to fill, Oklahoma City can take whoever they want and it would be fine.
Draft Targets
Pick #18: Montrezl Harrell, Power Forward/Center, Louisville
Given C Enes Kanter’s impending free agency and not enough quality big bodies around in case he leaves, taking a big man makes sense, and Harrell is the best one available at this point. His rebounding, at 9.5 per game, is second to none among the top prospects. Neither is his scoring and efficiency, where he averages 15.7 points on 57% shooting and 81.5% from around the rim. An athletic freak that can also defend and bring toughness and energy to the table, Harrell would be the perfect complementary piece on a star-studded team.
Season Predictions
Regular Season: When superstars PG/SG Russell Westbrook and SF/PF Kevin Durant had to miss the beginning of the season and their team was lead to a dismal start in their absence, there were serious questions over whether this team would make the playoffs, questions that lingered up until a couple weeks ago and were even rekindled after Durant had to miss even more time. Not anymore. Westbrook has been playing like an MVP, Durant has been playing like a reigning MVP (funny how that works) when healthy, star PF/C Serge Ibaka has stepped up, and numerous trade acquisitions this year have revamped what used to be a very weak bench. Though their record and seeding might not indicate it, due to injuries and an impossible conference respectively, Oklahoma City is as much of a title contender as anybody.
Projected Record: 48-34
Playoffs Round One
Golden State Warriors (#1) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (#8)
As they are the lowest seed in the best conference, the Thunder have to play the best team in the best conference in the first round. However, the Warriors’ regular season may just be only that: regular season success. As great as “The Splash Brothers” (superstar PG/SG Stephen Curry and SG/SF Klay Thompson) have been, nobody on the team really has any playoff success. In addition, many players are injury-prone, such as Curry and C Andrew Bogut among others, and getting one come playoff time would be a huge blow. On the flip side, Westbrook, Durant, and Ibaka have all had a lot of success together, and now with a revamped bench, they have to be considered the favorites, despite the difference in seeding. This series could easily go the other way, but my money’s on the team with more star power and more postseason success.
Series Prediction: Oklahoma City wins 4-3
Playoffs Round Two
Portland Trail Blazers (#4) vs. Oklahoma City (#8)
Another tough test for the Thunder, as the Blazers feature a couple of superstars of their own in PG Damian Lillard and PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge. Westbrook has the slight edge over Lillard, and it’ll be interesting to see if Ibaka can limit Aldridge more than SF/SG Nicolas Batum can limit Durant, though the answer is likely a slight yes. Unlike last series, what will really win this one for Oklahoma City is their bench. Outside of SG Arron Afflalo, Portland is really lacking quality players behind a very impressive starting five, and as discussed above in “regular season”, the Thunder are not, thanks to multiple trades. Even though Westbrook and Durant will likely outshine Lillard and Aldridge, Oklahoma City is going to need help from their bench if they want to win this series.
Series Prediction: Oklahoma City wins 4-2
Playoffs Round Three (Conference Finals)
Houston Rockets (#3) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (#8)
My pick for MVP, superstar SG James Harden, returns to face his former team, and along with him brings a flurry of defensive studs: F Trevor Ariza, PF Josh Smith, superstar C Dwight Howard, as well as a ridiculous bench revamped at the trade deadline. He’s facing his former teammates in Westbrook, Durant, and Ibaka, as well as a bench that was also improved at the deadline. So how can the Rockets win this series? Same way they do every other: stop everyone else on defense and let Harden go to work on offense while not letting the opposing team double-team him. The rest of the starting five are all excellent defenders, and Ariza and Beverley should do a lot to contain Westbrook and Durant while Smith, Howard, and the rest of a very fearsome frontcourt rotation should be able to control the paint. This means more driving lanes for Harden, and as you can’t really double-team him as everyone else is either a good shooter or named Dwight Howard, you can barely even hope to contain him based on how good he is. Houston’s bench at least matches up with the Thunder’s and they have the same amount of playoff experience and team chemistry as Oklahoma City does as well. Because of this, if Westbrook and Durant are held in check, Harden should be able to get revenge against his former team.
Series Prediction: Houston wins 4-3
Trade Grades
Thunder get: PG D.J Augustin, C Enes Kanter, SF/SG Kyle Singler, PF Steve Novak
Pistons get: PG Reggie Jackson
Jazz get: PF Grant Jerrett, C Kendrick Perkins, C Tibor Pleiss, Oklahoma City’s 2017 first-rounder
Jackson needed to be dealt, that much was obvious. The 24 year old was disgruntled as a backup, and that wasn’t going to change with superstar PG Russell Westbrook ahead of him on the depth chart. Despite teams knowing this, the Thunder got an impressive haul for the point guard. They gave up their first-rounder in 2017, yes, but that shouldn’t be of much value as long as superstar SF/PF Kevin Durant sticks around past 2016, and the other pieces involved in this deal are pretty much irrelevant. In return, the Thunder got Augustin, who will replace Jackson as the backup to Westbrook. Averaging 10.5 points, 5 assists, and 1 three per game, that shouldn’t be much of a downgrade. Singler will provide valuable floor-spacing, as the Duke product is knocking down 1.5 threes a game this season. Novak is also known for stretching the defense, as he is hitting 0.7 threes a game in just 5 minutes, which translates to a ridiculous 5 threes per 36 minutes. Kanter, while infamous for his poor defense, is still averaging 14 points and 8 rebounds per game, and star PF/C Serge Ibaka can help alleviate some of Kanter’s mishaps on the less glamorous side of the ball. The Thunder got several key role players in this deal that could prove critical as they try to please Durant while simultaneously compete for a title.
Grade: A-
One Trade That Every Team Should Do
Oklahoma City gets: PF/C Luis Scola, SF Chris Copeland, PG Donald Sloan, PF Shayne Whittington, Indiana’s 2017 first-rounder, Golden State’s 2015 second-rounder (via Indiana)
Indiana gets: PG Reggie Jackson, C Kendrick Perkins
Finances: I suggest you see Indiana for an explanation on this one. I’ll just quote it:
“A lot of the players involved in this deal are just to make the money work, but there are a few key players that the teams actually want. Scola, Copeland, and Sloan are all on expiring contracts, worth $4.5, $3.1, and $1 million respectively, but calling them contract fill-ins would be insulting to the solid seasons each are having. Whittington, who’s a bench warmer, is due for just $500,000 this year, after which his deal ends, and he is certainly a contract fill-in. This is also the case for Perkins, whose hefty expiring $9.2 million deal is critical in making the finances work. Jackson is the star of this trade, and is playing on the last year of his rookie contract at just $2.3 million, and is most definitely due for a raise this offseason. For both teams, the money is not much of an issue as all of these deals don’t run past this season.”
The Fit: Quote from ‘why the other team does it’ paragraph under Indiana:
“Oklahoma City actually has little use for Jackson, as they have Westbrook to run the point, as well as the newly acquired SG Dion Waiters to be the go-to scorer in the second unit. Trading him makes the most sense, especially considering how unhappy he is, and this is the perfect package. Scola is averaging a solid 9 points and 6 rebounds, Copeland chips in 1.2 threes a game, and Sloan does a bit of everything, as he puts up 9.5 points, 4.5 assists, 3.5 rebounds and a three per contest. Sloan would fill in for Jackson as the backup to Westbrook, and Scola and Copeland would play key minutes for the Thunder’s relatively thin rotation behind Durant and up front, which is barely affected by the loss of Perkins. The picks also help, and could be used as trade bait to land other players in Oklahoma City. Losing Jackson hurts, but Sloan can replace him just as well, and the Thunder get many other assets to boot.”
Why the other team does it: Again, see the Indiana Pacers for an explanation on this trade. I’ll quote ‘the fit’ paragraph for an explanation on the Pacers’ motives here:
“Jackson has been openly frustrated about his role backing up superstar PG Russell Westbrook for the Thunder, saying that he wants a starting gig. He can easily get that In Indiana, as the Pacers look to add another piece for the title run they look to have next season, where superstar SF/SG Paul George will return from his gruesome injury suffered last summer. Jackson easily deserves a starting role, as he averaged 19.5 points, 7.5 assists, and 5.5 rebounds when handed 38 minutes a game in November, where Westbrook and superstar teammate SF/PF Kevin Durant were riding the pine with injuries. Though he only connected on 41.5% of his shots and coughed up the ball 3.2 times a game, those stats certainly scream starter, if not all-star. Losing key role players in Scola, Copeland, and Sloan certainly hurts, as do the picks, but it is well worth it to snag someone with as much potential as Jackson.”
State of the Franchise
Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $7.1 million
Background: The Thunder have been an extremely competitive team these past couple of years, built around a core of 2013 MVP Kevin Durant, superstar PG Russell Westbrook, and star PF/C Serge Ibaka. Durant is a 3-time scoring champion, and Westbrook and Ibaka have no problems scoring as well, with Ibaka being one of the elite rim-protectors in the league. Westbrook is an excellent defender and Ibaka is one of the league's best elite shot blockers. The Thunder made the Finals in 2013 but lost to the Miami Heat in a 5 game series. As a small market team, the Thunder are known for their unwillingness to pay any luxury tax, even as a championship team. They traded their 6th Man of the Year SG James Harden because he was due for a new contract and they didn't want to pay the amount he earned. They have been a constant playoff team these past few years, but have been constantly plagued by injuries to superstars Durant and Westbrook. With a couple of minor moves, they should be a huge favorite for the title.
Current Financial State: The Thunder are expected to have $70 million tied up in contracts. Most of their money is committed to their stars. Durant is being paid $20 million, Westbrook $17 million, and Ibaka $12 million. Durant is going to be a free agent in the stacked 2016 free agent class, which includes names like LeBron James and Chris Paul. Westbrook and Ibaka are under contract for one year after that, until 2017. The Thunder recently traded for SG Dion Waiters who's on his rookie contract, and they are now putting PG Reggie Jackson on the block. While Westbrook was injured, Jackson filled in phenomenally. As a free agent this coming offseason, Jackson is due for a contract much larger than his current $2 million deal. Another contract they have been striving to move for a while now is C Kendrick Perkins' $9 million contract, which expires after this year. After drafting C Steven Adams in the 2013 NBA Draft, Perkins has moved into a bench role and is being paid too much for the Thunder's liking. Before this deadline, the Thunder will be looking to move Jackson and Perkins for more talented or affordable players.
Targets: The Thunder have reportedly been interested in Brooklyn Nets C Brook Lopez, as the Nets have been shopping Lopez's contract in hope to free up cap space. Oklahoma City would likely have to move Perkins' $9 million expiring deal among other pieces, likely rookie PF Mitch McGary in order to acquire Lopez. McGary is averaging 10 points on a blazing-hot 65% shooting, as well as 6 rebounds in just 14 minutes per game, albeit just playing four games. The Michigan standout would be an excellent fit next to C Mason Plumlee in the Nets’ frontcourt. For the Thunder, they would receive a productive, scoring center in Lopez to pair with defensive stud Ibaka. The Nets would receive financial relief in Perkins' expiring contract, something they've been looking for. A possible team that could be looking to acquire Reggie Jackson is the Indiana Pacers. Paul George is out for the year after his gruesome preseason injury, and the Pacers haven't received much scoring from PG George Hill, PF David West and C Roy Hibbert. With Jackson, they get a scoring guard who can also distribute the ball and run the offense. The Thunder will likely give away Jackson and Perkins and get PG Donald Sloan in return, along with veteran PF David West. West’s leadership helps the Thunder and contract comes off before 2016 free agency where the Thunder will need as much money as possible to re-sign Durant. Donald Sloan plays like Jackson but is on a much more affordable deal and isn't expected to get as substantial a raise as Jackson is. By making these moves, the Thunder can simultaneously add more talent while not ruining their financial future.
The Fit: Whether they get Lopez or Sloan and West, the Thunder will be receiving players who can quickly fit into their offensive and defensive scheme. Lopez will give them more scoring from the 5 and add some more rim protection along with Ibaka. His lack of rebounding ability can easily be compensated by Ibaka and Durant's, as well as Westbrook's not uncommon triple doubles. Sloan fits in with the Thunder because he can score. Jackson will essentially be replaced by recently acquired Dion Waiters, but Sloan can provide additional scoring too. West fits really well, also. As a championship team, they could really use some veteran leadership and the power forward’s scoring and rebounding off the bench. If they make the right moves this offseason, they could keep Durant past his free agency and go on to win a championship.
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