Season Predictions 2016
Current seeding: 13th
Projected seeding: 11th
Don’t get too excited, Knicks fans: the main reason why I’m bumping the team up a couple of spots is because I expect the Bucks and Magic to maybe take it a little easy down the stretch (tank), because they actually have their own draft pick. The breakout of rookie sensation PF/C Kristaps Porzingis has been great for New York, but he is perhaps the lone bright spot on this team. Superstar SF/PF Carmelo Anthony and offseason additions SG Arron Afflalo and C Robin Lopez are all performing okay, but ‘Melo and Afflalo could definitely have been counted on to provide a few more points per game each. Rookie PG Jerian Grant, as well as young SG/PG Langston Galloway, were also supposed to be having better seasons than their current per-game averages would suggest. Still, the biggest reason for New York’s shortcomings lie in their front office: the failure to land a star this offseason. They’re bound to go after another batch of stars this summer, and maybe could use a few pointless wins down the stretch to lessen the embarrassment of this season. All eyes on you, Phil Jackson.
Power Rankings
Overall Rank: 22nd
Tier: Playoff Hopefuls
Projected Seeding: 11th in East
The Knicks, with a superstar in SF/PF Carmelo Anthony, 13-time champion in President Phil Jackson, the allure of playing in the Big Apple, and boatloads of salary cap space, were supposed to come out of the summer with one or more new star. PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge, C Marc Gasol, PF/C Greg Monroe, and PG Rajon Rondo were just some of the studs that Phil Jackson took a swing at, but ultimately struck out on. He did, however, add some nice complemntary pieces to Anthony, in SG/SF Arron Afflalo and C Robin Lopez. Joining this trio in the starting five, though, is a pair of rookies in PG Jerian Grant and PF/C Kristaps Porzingis. This team also has some solid depth, including SG/PG Langston Galloway, PF Derrick Williams, PG Jose Calderon, and C/PF Kyle O'Quinn. With a retooled roster around one of the best scorers in the game, New York definitely has a shot at sneaking into the postseason. However, a fair comparison for the Knicks, and perhaps their chief competition for a back-end playoff spot, is the Indiana Pacers. They too, re-did their roster around a superstar small forward, Paul George. However, Indy added SG Monta Ellis, a legitimate 20 point-per-game scorer, to be George's number two, a standard that Afflalo falls just short of for Carmelo. All of the other factors of the two teams are approximately equal, from the floor generals to the big men to the depth to the superstar small forwards themselves. However, it is this premiere beta dog that will give the Pacers a considerably higher chance of making the playoffs, and showing through contrast, the opposite fortune awaiting the Knicks.
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Atlanta Hawk's Trade Grade
Knicks get: Draft rights to rookie PG/SG Jerian Grant
Hawks get: SG Tim Hardaway Jr.
This is a fairly even swap here, although maybe the Knicks came out a little bit on top. Hardaway Jr. was a fan favorite, which made probably made Knicks fans even more agitated after their apparent frustration with taking PF/C Kristaps Porzingis fourth overall. However, Grant is an NBA-ready rookie that can thrive in the triangle offense from day one, and Hardaway was the only trade chip New York really had (that was not named superstar SF/PF Carmelo Anthony or their number four pick, of course).
Tim Hardaway Jr. is of course the son of an all-time great, and after his impressive rookie campaign, it was looking like he’d follow in his father’s footsteps. He hit 1.6 threes on a blazing 36.2% on them, as part of his 10.8 points per game en route to being named to the All-Rookie First Team. However, he has shown a lack of improvement in year two, actually just plateauing completely, which is alarming. Hardaway averaged 11.5 points and 34.2% shooting from downtown this past season. He’s just 23 years old, so he could still possess some upside, but there is risk that he’ll just level out with the current skillset he has, given his lack of development since his rookie year. Therefore, the Knicks did well to deal him for a solid prospect before Hardaway’s value dipped.
Grant is perfect for the Knicks. A senior out of Notre Dame, he possesses a skillset that can be put to use immediately in the NBA, and especially in the triangle offense. Grant is lengthy, with an imposing frame as well for a point guard, helping him to become an excellent defender. He can slash to the basket, work the pick-and-roll, and is a phenomenal passer as well. His jump shot needs improvement, but it’s really not even that bad as it stands. Grant projects to be able to run the offense in New York from day one.
Losing Hardaway hurts, but the Knicks got more than a fair deal here. Hardaway Jr. now has all sorts of risk attached to him, concerning his lack of upside after he plateaued in his second season. Meanwhile, Grant is one of the safer picks in this entire draft, as other than a little more development of his jump shot, he’s already a fairly complete player. Overall, although Hardaway Jr. could have a higher ceiling, Grant is far less risky and can contribute from day one.
Grade: B+
Best/Worst Case Scenarios
(#4 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Trading the pick for good value
You could also easily say that the best case scenario for the Knicks is to get one of Towns, Okafor, or Russell, but it’s all too likely that they go top three. To trade or not to trade, that is the question. Personally, I believe that Phil Jackson should be aggressively shopping the pick in exchange for veterans, that could help the Knicks start winning sooner rather than later. This is necessary because the 31 year old superstar SF/PF Carmelo Anthony is aging fast, and the window in which he could lead the Knicks to the title would be closed by the time a prospect like PG/SG D’Angelo Russell could develop. An interesting trade partner could be the Denver Nuggets, whom the Knicks acquired Anthony from. The Nuggets are looking to deal away their veterans to start a youth movement in Denver, and are trying to acquire all the prospects and draft picks they can: a perfect trading partner for the Knicks. Getting quality players like PG/SG Ty Lawson and/or SF Wilson Chandler should be at the top of New York’s wish list.
Worst Case Scenario: None
I’m going back and forth between proven PG Emmanuel Mudiay and the fast-rising PF/C Kristaps Porzingis at #4, should the Knicks keep their pick and Okafor, Towns and Russell go top three. I’ve come to the conclusion that I have to give the slight nod to Porzingis, but only because of his superior fit for the Knicks. He’s got superstar PF Dirk Nowitzki potential, and to maybe be a better defender than Nowitzki, as Porzingis is a big man that can shoot the lights out -- a combination valued very highly in today’s NBA. But really, I wrote “none” because Mudiay would also be a more than fine pick, as he is an excellent all-around player. The only “bad” scenario would be Phil Jackson reaching on SF Justise Winslow or C Willie Cauley-Stein, or trading the pick for bad value, of course, but that’s not going to happen.
Draft Targets
Pick #1: Jahlil Okafor, Center, Duke
You could easily make the case for Karl Anthony-Towns here, as the Kentucky PF’s ability to shoot, pass and defend would be a great fit for the triangle, not to mention his Wildcats’ winning ways. However, Okafor is simply the more talented of the two as well as having the higher ceiling, as he’s averaging 18 points, 9 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks, all while connecting on a whopping 67% of his shots from the field. Free throw shooting continues to be an issue, but there are just too many strengths to pass on him because of only one weakness. With the state the Knicks are in, they should just take the best guy available, and as of now, that’s Okafor.
Season Predictions
Regular Season: Since the goal for the larger part of this season has been to lose games and shed salary, you have to consider President Phil Jackson’s first season back in New York a sort of success. All of the Knicks’ good players from the beginning of the season are either injured or playing somewhere else due to a trade, and this allows them to lose more games and prepare for next season by increasing cap space. Losing more games also means a higher draft pick, which is really the main motive here, so you can be sure Jackson will “succeed”, because he always does. Next season the Knicks could actually be a very competitive team depending on how free agency works out, but for now, it’s all about the ping-pong balls (losing more games for a higher draft pick).
Projected Record: 15-67, 15th in East
Trade Grades
Knicks get: SG/PG Alexey Shved, two second-rounders
Rockets get: PG Pablo Prigioni
Excellent move here by Phil Jackson and co. Probably the best one of his short tenure so far in the Big Apple, although it flew largely under the radar with all the big moves taking place today. Looking to clear even more cap space for this offseason, offloading the $1.7 million owed to Prigioni next year made sense for the Knicks. Shved is a role player/benchwarmer on an expiring deal, and the second-round draft picks are just an added bonus to shedding Prigioni’s cheap and reasonable salary. The 37 year old was only averaging 4.5 points, 2.5 assists, and 1 three a game, and with all the star point guards on the move at the deadline, you have to give props to Jackson for getting so much in return for a player he didn’t even want.
Grade: A-
One Trade That Every Team Should Do
New York gets: C Brendan Haywood, 2015 second-rounder (less favorable of Portland or Chicago)
Cleveland gets: PG Pablo Prigioni, SF Travis Wear
Finances: While it would be nice to dump PG Jose Calderon’s 3 year/$22.2 million contract on someone else, it is more of a pipe dream than a possibility. For that, I highly suggest you just read Cleveland, where I suggested the same exact trade. I’ll quote part of it: “Prigioni has 2 years and $3.4 million remaining on his deal, fair numbers for someone of his level. Haywood has a very odd sort of contract, but all-in-all it’s pretty much just an expiring $2.2 million deal, and Wear’s deal is worth just $500,000 and ends after this season.” For the Knicks, this trade mainly just makes sense because they are trying to clear even more cap space for this upcoming offseason, and Prigioni’s $1.7 million could get in the way.
The Fit: To quote ‘why the other team does it’ from Cleveland:
“President Phil Jackson has been aggressively trying to clear the books for this offseason in an effort to maximize cap room in an effort to go all-in towards signing big name free agents, and Prigioni will likely just be another domino to fall in that attempt. Even that small $1.7 million could take away precious cap space for a team that is competing for the league’s worst record, and netting a second-rounder for him doesn’t hurt, either. Wear means next to nothing in this trade, and Haywood’s deal expires at season’s end anyways. Should Cleveland be willing to cough up their last draft pick in the foreseeable future in exchange for Prigioni, Jackson shouldn’t hesitate to pull the trigger.”
Why the other team does it: To quote ‘the fit’ from Cleveland:
“Cleveland has long been in the market for a backup point guard to Kyrie Irving, and although there are better names on the trading block, namely PG Jameer Nelson (DEN), the only real asset the Cavaliers have to part with is that second-round pick, likely not enough to net themselves Nelson. Prigioni is a solid consolation prize, however, as he is averaging 5 points, 2.5 assists, and 1 three in just 18.5 minutes per contest. He can run the second-unit when Irving needs a breather, and should Irving go down with an injury, Prigioni can step up as a temporary starter, while superstar SF/PF LeBron James would do most of the ball-handling and distributing, anyways. Prigioni addresses a need for Cleveland, and could be the final piece in their quest for the championship.”
State of the Franchise
Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $42.6 million
Background: If you are currently a Knicks fan, you have my condolences. For the past decade and change, owner James Dolan has tried way too hard to instantly build a title contender in New York, and boy has it backfired. From horrible contracts such as SG Allan Houston’s ridiculous $100 million contract extension in 2001 that left New York with zero financial flexibility for the next six years, or C Jerome James’ 5 year/$30 million deal in 2005, and most recently the completely idiotic 5 year/$100 million commitment New York made to PF Amare Stoudemire, whose deal finally expires this year. To hiring terrible General Managers, from Scott Layden to Hall of Fame PG Isiah Thomas, who made horrible moves themselves under their owner. James Dolan has to be considered one of the worst owners of all time, taking a once-powerful and historic franchise in a big city, fresh off an era featuring Hall of Fame C Patrick Ewing, to a middle-of-the-pack team year in and year out, with little hope for the future each year. If there was one particular move to sum up everything Dolan has done to the franchise, it would be the Eddy Curry deal. In 2005, Dolan dealt away Tim Thomas, Jermaine Jackson, and Michael Sweetney, as well as a pair of first-rounders and two second-rounders for Eddy Curry’s disastrous 6 year/$56 million contract. Of course, those two first-rounders turned into superstars PF LaMarcus Aldridge and C Joakim Noah. But enough trashing the Knicks (I might be the first person to ever say that). Let’s focus on the good. There is hope for the future, even though their current record, which is the worst in the entire association, might not necessarily indicate it. James Dolan actually hired a smart person to oversee the team, and if you’d like to argue otherwise, Phil Jackson just needs to show you his fingers (and three of his toes) to hush you up. Just look at his two rings as part of the legendary Knicks of the 70s, six more coaching the greatest NBA player to ever live, SG Michael Jordan, and five more further implementing his triangle offense over legendary SG Kobe Bryant and the Los Angeles Lakers, and you can only come to one conclusion: if there’s anybody who can turn the Knicks around, it’s the Zen Master himself.
Current Financial State: As touched on above, the Knicks have the worst record in the NBA this year, which is actually a good thing because they own their first-round pick in this upcoming draft. Next year, the Knicks do not have a pick, and they will also not make a second-round selection until 2019 (thanks, James Dolan). However, this free agency, the Knicks will have a ton of cap space. Last off-season, President Phil Jackson dealt away C Tyson Chandler in a deal that brought a small youth infusion to New York, as the Knicks acquired a couple of second-rounders, one of whom turned into SF Cleanthony Early, as well as PG Jose Calderon from the Dallas Mavericks, among others. However, Calderon came with a bit of a price tag, to the tune of over $22 million over three years still remaining on his deal. Despite the efforts, this season obviously has not gone as planned, so Jackson has gone about completely clearing the books for this offseason. He dealt away SG’s JR Smith and Iman Shumpert in a three-team trade with Cleveland and Oklahoma City, while taking back only small, expiring contracts in return, and others are sure to follow. Now, with a brand new 5 year/$124 million extension, superstar SF/PF Carmelo Anthony represents the only major commitment beyond this season not named Calderon, likely giving Jackson over $40 million at his disposal this offseason, as well as a great first-rounder, in an effort to bring New York back to its title contending status, just like it was when he played there so long ago.
Targets: This offseason, C Marc Gasol (MEM) figures to be the top available free agent, and he would be a perfect fit in Phil Jackson’s triangle offense, which needs a low-post scorer to operate and could also use Gasol’s above-average passing skills for his size. He could cost the Knicks about 4 years/$80 million, but it’s not as if he doesn't deserve every penny of it, or that the Knicks don’t have that kind of money. Prying him from his current team, the Memphis Grizzlies, may be a tough sell with the season the Knicks are currently having, but when has “tough” every stopped Phil Jackson? PG Goran Dragic (PHO) is a free agent this year as well, and would also be an optimal fit in the triangle offense, as he is the perfect man to run the point. With Dragic’s Pheonix Suns already paying over $20 million combined to PG’s Eric Bledsoe and Isaiah Thomas (no relation), they’d be hard-pressed to cough up anywhere near what the Knicks can offer for the Slovenian’s services. Of course, the Knicks would have to pay that money, and Dragic isn’t cheap, as he could command up to 4 years/$56 million. However, if signing Dragic and having the cap to do it were to happen, the Knicks would have to get rid of PG Jose Calderon. As touched on above, there is a fire sale going on in New York. Everybody not named Carmelo Anthony is available via trade, as the Knicks look to clear even more cap space for this coming offseason, and the next domino to fall will likely be Calderon, whether or not the Knicks do in fact pursue Dragic. However, there are two issues when trying to find a taker for Calderon: the price tag (3 years/$22.2 million) and his age (33). Either one of these numbers can be a major turn-off for teams, but combine them and you realize that a team would have to pay a 36 year old $7+ million annually, that was a minus defender even in his prime. Still, Calderon is a sweet-shooting point guard who is connecting on 1.5 threes a game this season, and can distribute the rock as well as anybody being paid his money, as evidenced by his 4.6 assists per game this year. However, due to the money, Calderon is still one of those guys that you have to give something to get rid of him, as he just does not play as well as his salary indicates he should. The Houston Rockets are a contender in the market for a point guard that can space the floor as well as distribute the ball to superstars SG James Harden and C Dwight Howard, and Calderon can offer exactly that. The Knicks could give Calderon and their 2017 first rounder (they don’t have very many future draft picks) in exchange for the expiring contract of SG Jason Terry. For Houston, current PG Patrick Beverley and Calderon could battle for the starting job, with the former offering excellent defense and the latter supplying good offense. Another candidate to be dealt is Calderon’s backup, PG Pablo Prigioni. Prigioni is in just his second year in the NBA at 37 years old, but can still shoot from deep, as he's averaging a three per game this year. The Cleveland Cavaliers have been in the market for a veteran floor general to backup star PG Kyrie Irving this season, and Prigioni fits the bill. Cleveland still has the lesser of Chicago and Portland’s second round picks for this upcoming draft left over after dealing many draft picks to acquire SG’s J.R Smith and Iman Shumpert, as well as C Timofey Mozgov in a separate deal. Cleveland can convey this pick to New York in exchange for Prigioni’s services. For the Cavaliers, they get exactly what they wanted. Prigioni can run the point in the second unit and space the floor very well, and is a major upgrade over current backup PG Matthew Dellavedova. For the Knicks, Prigioni’s contract runs into next year, and so just getting rid of his $1.5 million would be a plus for them, and getting a late second rounder makes this trade that much better. However, to make the finances of this deal work, Cleveland would have to send the cheap expiring contracts of role players PG Matthew Dellavedova and SF James Jones to New York. There’s a sale going on in New York, and “everything must go.”
The Fit: PG Matthew Dellavedova and SF James Jones, who would potentially be acquired from Cleveland in the Prigioni deal, would be nothing more than contract fill-ins to make a trade work: they will likely never play in New York again following this season, as would SG Jason Terry, who would be received from Houston in a Calderon trade. Any or all of these players may actually see significant opportunity and playing time with the Knicks this season, which speaks much more to how bad the team currently is than to any of these players’ actual talent. Dellavedova would compete with PG Shane Larkin for minutes at point guard, with Larkin being the only floor general left on the Knicks roster if both Prigioni and Calderon were to be dealt. SF James Jones, once one of the most feared shooters in the league, but he is well past his prime and has really fallen off track this year, averaging less than one three-pointer and just 3.6 points in only 10 minutes per game. He is unlikely to post any better numbers than he has been, even on a depleted Knicks team, as SF’s Quincy Acy, Lance Thomas, and rookie Cleanthony Early are backing up superstar SF/PF Carmelo Anthony, though ‘Melo does play a lot of power forward. SG Jason Terry is also fairly washed up, but is putting together a nice year, averaging 7.5 points and 1.7 triples in 21.5 minutes per contest. He could fight for minutes at the two along with young, emerging players SG Tim Hardaway Jr. and SG Langston Galloway. However, head coach Derek Fisher would be foolish to bench his youngsters in favor of either of these veterans, as the Knicks are currently in the midst of a lost season which they have more interest in losing than winning. None of Dellavedova, Terry, nor Jones figure to have any sort of long-term fit in New York. C Marc Gasol, however, obviously figures to have a long-term role in New York. Named to his first All-Star game as a starter, Gasol has certainly deserved the honor, even in the brutal Western Conference. Averaging 18.6 ppg on 50% shooting from the field as well as 81% from the charity stripe, the younger of the Gasol brothers is capable of being a primary scorer, from the post, pick-and-roll, midrange or wherever he is needed. In addition, Gasol is a defensive anchor, winning Defensive Player of the Year honors in 2013 and averaging 1.7 blocks and 1 steal per game, as well as hauling in over 8 rebounds. Gasol also leads all centers with 4 assists a game, an absolutely critical skill in the triangle offense where ball movement is key. PG Goran Dragic, on the other hand, will run the point for the triangle in New York. A lethal shooter who is averaging 16.5 points and 1.5 threes per game while making half his shots, Dragic is the optimal fit for any triangle offense. Though not as good a distributor as other point guards in the NBA today, Dragic’s 5 dimes per game over the last two seasons are nothing to laugh at; especially when you consider that ball movement doesn't just come from the point guard in the triangle. With Dragic, Carmelo, Gasol, a top-5 selection in the draft and others, Phil Jackson may yet bring a long-awaited title to New York.
Current seeding: 13th
Projected seeding: 11th
Don’t get too excited, Knicks fans: the main reason why I’m bumping the team up a couple of spots is because I expect the Bucks and Magic to maybe take it a little easy down the stretch (tank), because they actually have their own draft pick. The breakout of rookie sensation PF/C Kristaps Porzingis has been great for New York, but he is perhaps the lone bright spot on this team. Superstar SF/PF Carmelo Anthony and offseason additions SG Arron Afflalo and C Robin Lopez are all performing okay, but ‘Melo and Afflalo could definitely have been counted on to provide a few more points per game each. Rookie PG Jerian Grant, as well as young SG/PG Langston Galloway, were also supposed to be having better seasons than their current per-game averages would suggest. Still, the biggest reason for New York’s shortcomings lie in their front office: the failure to land a star this offseason. They’re bound to go after another batch of stars this summer, and maybe could use a few pointless wins down the stretch to lessen the embarrassment of this season. All eyes on you, Phil Jackson.
Power Rankings
Overall Rank: 22nd
Tier: Playoff Hopefuls
Projected Seeding: 11th in East
The Knicks, with a superstar in SF/PF Carmelo Anthony, 13-time champion in President Phil Jackson, the allure of playing in the Big Apple, and boatloads of salary cap space, were supposed to come out of the summer with one or more new star. PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge, C Marc Gasol, PF/C Greg Monroe, and PG Rajon Rondo were just some of the studs that Phil Jackson took a swing at, but ultimately struck out on. He did, however, add some nice complemntary pieces to Anthony, in SG/SF Arron Afflalo and C Robin Lopez. Joining this trio in the starting five, though, is a pair of rookies in PG Jerian Grant and PF/C Kristaps Porzingis. This team also has some solid depth, including SG/PG Langston Galloway, PF Derrick Williams, PG Jose Calderon, and C/PF Kyle O'Quinn. With a retooled roster around one of the best scorers in the game, New York definitely has a shot at sneaking into the postseason. However, a fair comparison for the Knicks, and perhaps their chief competition for a back-end playoff spot, is the Indiana Pacers. They too, re-did their roster around a superstar small forward, Paul George. However, Indy added SG Monta Ellis, a legitimate 20 point-per-game scorer, to be George's number two, a standard that Afflalo falls just short of for Carmelo. All of the other factors of the two teams are approximately equal, from the floor generals to the big men to the depth to the superstar small forwards themselves. However, it is this premiere beta dog that will give the Pacers a considerably higher chance of making the playoffs, and showing through contrast, the opposite fortune awaiting the Knicks.
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Atlanta Hawk's Trade Grade
Knicks get: Draft rights to rookie PG/SG Jerian Grant
Hawks get: SG Tim Hardaway Jr.
This is a fairly even swap here, although maybe the Knicks came out a little bit on top. Hardaway Jr. was a fan favorite, which made probably made Knicks fans even more agitated after their apparent frustration with taking PF/C Kristaps Porzingis fourth overall. However, Grant is an NBA-ready rookie that can thrive in the triangle offense from day one, and Hardaway was the only trade chip New York really had (that was not named superstar SF/PF Carmelo Anthony or their number four pick, of course).
Tim Hardaway Jr. is of course the son of an all-time great, and after his impressive rookie campaign, it was looking like he’d follow in his father’s footsteps. He hit 1.6 threes on a blazing 36.2% on them, as part of his 10.8 points per game en route to being named to the All-Rookie First Team. However, he has shown a lack of improvement in year two, actually just plateauing completely, which is alarming. Hardaway averaged 11.5 points and 34.2% shooting from downtown this past season. He’s just 23 years old, so he could still possess some upside, but there is risk that he’ll just level out with the current skillset he has, given his lack of development since his rookie year. Therefore, the Knicks did well to deal him for a solid prospect before Hardaway’s value dipped.
Grant is perfect for the Knicks. A senior out of Notre Dame, he possesses a skillset that can be put to use immediately in the NBA, and especially in the triangle offense. Grant is lengthy, with an imposing frame as well for a point guard, helping him to become an excellent defender. He can slash to the basket, work the pick-and-roll, and is a phenomenal passer as well. His jump shot needs improvement, but it’s really not even that bad as it stands. Grant projects to be able to run the offense in New York from day one.
Losing Hardaway hurts, but the Knicks got more than a fair deal here. Hardaway Jr. now has all sorts of risk attached to him, concerning his lack of upside after he plateaued in his second season. Meanwhile, Grant is one of the safer picks in this entire draft, as other than a little more development of his jump shot, he’s already a fairly complete player. Overall, although Hardaway Jr. could have a higher ceiling, Grant is far less risky and can contribute from day one.
Grade: B+
Best/Worst Case Scenarios
(#4 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Trading the pick for good value
You could also easily say that the best case scenario for the Knicks is to get one of Towns, Okafor, or Russell, but it’s all too likely that they go top three. To trade or not to trade, that is the question. Personally, I believe that Phil Jackson should be aggressively shopping the pick in exchange for veterans, that could help the Knicks start winning sooner rather than later. This is necessary because the 31 year old superstar SF/PF Carmelo Anthony is aging fast, and the window in which he could lead the Knicks to the title would be closed by the time a prospect like PG/SG D’Angelo Russell could develop. An interesting trade partner could be the Denver Nuggets, whom the Knicks acquired Anthony from. The Nuggets are looking to deal away their veterans to start a youth movement in Denver, and are trying to acquire all the prospects and draft picks they can: a perfect trading partner for the Knicks. Getting quality players like PG/SG Ty Lawson and/or SF Wilson Chandler should be at the top of New York’s wish list.
Worst Case Scenario: None
I’m going back and forth between proven PG Emmanuel Mudiay and the fast-rising PF/C Kristaps Porzingis at #4, should the Knicks keep their pick and Okafor, Towns and Russell go top three. I’ve come to the conclusion that I have to give the slight nod to Porzingis, but only because of his superior fit for the Knicks. He’s got superstar PF Dirk Nowitzki potential, and to maybe be a better defender than Nowitzki, as Porzingis is a big man that can shoot the lights out -- a combination valued very highly in today’s NBA. But really, I wrote “none” because Mudiay would also be a more than fine pick, as he is an excellent all-around player. The only “bad” scenario would be Phil Jackson reaching on SF Justise Winslow or C Willie Cauley-Stein, or trading the pick for bad value, of course, but that’s not going to happen.
Draft Targets
Pick #1: Jahlil Okafor, Center, Duke
You could easily make the case for Karl Anthony-Towns here, as the Kentucky PF’s ability to shoot, pass and defend would be a great fit for the triangle, not to mention his Wildcats’ winning ways. However, Okafor is simply the more talented of the two as well as having the higher ceiling, as he’s averaging 18 points, 9 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks, all while connecting on a whopping 67% of his shots from the field. Free throw shooting continues to be an issue, but there are just too many strengths to pass on him because of only one weakness. With the state the Knicks are in, they should just take the best guy available, and as of now, that’s Okafor.
Season Predictions
Regular Season: Since the goal for the larger part of this season has been to lose games and shed salary, you have to consider President Phil Jackson’s first season back in New York a sort of success. All of the Knicks’ good players from the beginning of the season are either injured or playing somewhere else due to a trade, and this allows them to lose more games and prepare for next season by increasing cap space. Losing more games also means a higher draft pick, which is really the main motive here, so you can be sure Jackson will “succeed”, because he always does. Next season the Knicks could actually be a very competitive team depending on how free agency works out, but for now, it’s all about the ping-pong balls (losing more games for a higher draft pick).
Projected Record: 15-67, 15th in East
Trade Grades
Knicks get: SG/PG Alexey Shved, two second-rounders
Rockets get: PG Pablo Prigioni
Excellent move here by Phil Jackson and co. Probably the best one of his short tenure so far in the Big Apple, although it flew largely under the radar with all the big moves taking place today. Looking to clear even more cap space for this offseason, offloading the $1.7 million owed to Prigioni next year made sense for the Knicks. Shved is a role player/benchwarmer on an expiring deal, and the second-round draft picks are just an added bonus to shedding Prigioni’s cheap and reasonable salary. The 37 year old was only averaging 4.5 points, 2.5 assists, and 1 three a game, and with all the star point guards on the move at the deadline, you have to give props to Jackson for getting so much in return for a player he didn’t even want.
Grade: A-
One Trade That Every Team Should Do
New York gets: C Brendan Haywood, 2015 second-rounder (less favorable of Portland or Chicago)
Cleveland gets: PG Pablo Prigioni, SF Travis Wear
Finances: While it would be nice to dump PG Jose Calderon’s 3 year/$22.2 million contract on someone else, it is more of a pipe dream than a possibility. For that, I highly suggest you just read Cleveland, where I suggested the same exact trade. I’ll quote part of it: “Prigioni has 2 years and $3.4 million remaining on his deal, fair numbers for someone of his level. Haywood has a very odd sort of contract, but all-in-all it’s pretty much just an expiring $2.2 million deal, and Wear’s deal is worth just $500,000 and ends after this season.” For the Knicks, this trade mainly just makes sense because they are trying to clear even more cap space for this upcoming offseason, and Prigioni’s $1.7 million could get in the way.
The Fit: To quote ‘why the other team does it’ from Cleveland:
“President Phil Jackson has been aggressively trying to clear the books for this offseason in an effort to maximize cap room in an effort to go all-in towards signing big name free agents, and Prigioni will likely just be another domino to fall in that attempt. Even that small $1.7 million could take away precious cap space for a team that is competing for the league’s worst record, and netting a second-rounder for him doesn’t hurt, either. Wear means next to nothing in this trade, and Haywood’s deal expires at season’s end anyways. Should Cleveland be willing to cough up their last draft pick in the foreseeable future in exchange for Prigioni, Jackson shouldn’t hesitate to pull the trigger.”
Why the other team does it: To quote ‘the fit’ from Cleveland:
“Cleveland has long been in the market for a backup point guard to Kyrie Irving, and although there are better names on the trading block, namely PG Jameer Nelson (DEN), the only real asset the Cavaliers have to part with is that second-round pick, likely not enough to net themselves Nelson. Prigioni is a solid consolation prize, however, as he is averaging 5 points, 2.5 assists, and 1 three in just 18.5 minutes per contest. He can run the second-unit when Irving needs a breather, and should Irving go down with an injury, Prigioni can step up as a temporary starter, while superstar SF/PF LeBron James would do most of the ball-handling and distributing, anyways. Prigioni addresses a need for Cleveland, and could be the final piece in their quest for the championship.”
State of the Franchise
Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $42.6 million
Background: If you are currently a Knicks fan, you have my condolences. For the past decade and change, owner James Dolan has tried way too hard to instantly build a title contender in New York, and boy has it backfired. From horrible contracts such as SG Allan Houston’s ridiculous $100 million contract extension in 2001 that left New York with zero financial flexibility for the next six years, or C Jerome James’ 5 year/$30 million deal in 2005, and most recently the completely idiotic 5 year/$100 million commitment New York made to PF Amare Stoudemire, whose deal finally expires this year. To hiring terrible General Managers, from Scott Layden to Hall of Fame PG Isiah Thomas, who made horrible moves themselves under their owner. James Dolan has to be considered one of the worst owners of all time, taking a once-powerful and historic franchise in a big city, fresh off an era featuring Hall of Fame C Patrick Ewing, to a middle-of-the-pack team year in and year out, with little hope for the future each year. If there was one particular move to sum up everything Dolan has done to the franchise, it would be the Eddy Curry deal. In 2005, Dolan dealt away Tim Thomas, Jermaine Jackson, and Michael Sweetney, as well as a pair of first-rounders and two second-rounders for Eddy Curry’s disastrous 6 year/$56 million contract. Of course, those two first-rounders turned into superstars PF LaMarcus Aldridge and C Joakim Noah. But enough trashing the Knicks (I might be the first person to ever say that). Let’s focus on the good. There is hope for the future, even though their current record, which is the worst in the entire association, might not necessarily indicate it. James Dolan actually hired a smart person to oversee the team, and if you’d like to argue otherwise, Phil Jackson just needs to show you his fingers (and three of his toes) to hush you up. Just look at his two rings as part of the legendary Knicks of the 70s, six more coaching the greatest NBA player to ever live, SG Michael Jordan, and five more further implementing his triangle offense over legendary SG Kobe Bryant and the Los Angeles Lakers, and you can only come to one conclusion: if there’s anybody who can turn the Knicks around, it’s the Zen Master himself.
Current Financial State: As touched on above, the Knicks have the worst record in the NBA this year, which is actually a good thing because they own their first-round pick in this upcoming draft. Next year, the Knicks do not have a pick, and they will also not make a second-round selection until 2019 (thanks, James Dolan). However, this free agency, the Knicks will have a ton of cap space. Last off-season, President Phil Jackson dealt away C Tyson Chandler in a deal that brought a small youth infusion to New York, as the Knicks acquired a couple of second-rounders, one of whom turned into SF Cleanthony Early, as well as PG Jose Calderon from the Dallas Mavericks, among others. However, Calderon came with a bit of a price tag, to the tune of over $22 million over three years still remaining on his deal. Despite the efforts, this season obviously has not gone as planned, so Jackson has gone about completely clearing the books for this offseason. He dealt away SG’s JR Smith and Iman Shumpert in a three-team trade with Cleveland and Oklahoma City, while taking back only small, expiring contracts in return, and others are sure to follow. Now, with a brand new 5 year/$124 million extension, superstar SF/PF Carmelo Anthony represents the only major commitment beyond this season not named Calderon, likely giving Jackson over $40 million at his disposal this offseason, as well as a great first-rounder, in an effort to bring New York back to its title contending status, just like it was when he played there so long ago.
Targets: This offseason, C Marc Gasol (MEM) figures to be the top available free agent, and he would be a perfect fit in Phil Jackson’s triangle offense, which needs a low-post scorer to operate and could also use Gasol’s above-average passing skills for his size. He could cost the Knicks about 4 years/$80 million, but it’s not as if he doesn't deserve every penny of it, or that the Knicks don’t have that kind of money. Prying him from his current team, the Memphis Grizzlies, may be a tough sell with the season the Knicks are currently having, but when has “tough” every stopped Phil Jackson? PG Goran Dragic (PHO) is a free agent this year as well, and would also be an optimal fit in the triangle offense, as he is the perfect man to run the point. With Dragic’s Pheonix Suns already paying over $20 million combined to PG’s Eric Bledsoe and Isaiah Thomas (no relation), they’d be hard-pressed to cough up anywhere near what the Knicks can offer for the Slovenian’s services. Of course, the Knicks would have to pay that money, and Dragic isn’t cheap, as he could command up to 4 years/$56 million. However, if signing Dragic and having the cap to do it were to happen, the Knicks would have to get rid of PG Jose Calderon. As touched on above, there is a fire sale going on in New York. Everybody not named Carmelo Anthony is available via trade, as the Knicks look to clear even more cap space for this coming offseason, and the next domino to fall will likely be Calderon, whether or not the Knicks do in fact pursue Dragic. However, there are two issues when trying to find a taker for Calderon: the price tag (3 years/$22.2 million) and his age (33). Either one of these numbers can be a major turn-off for teams, but combine them and you realize that a team would have to pay a 36 year old $7+ million annually, that was a minus defender even in his prime. Still, Calderon is a sweet-shooting point guard who is connecting on 1.5 threes a game this season, and can distribute the rock as well as anybody being paid his money, as evidenced by his 4.6 assists per game this year. However, due to the money, Calderon is still one of those guys that you have to give something to get rid of him, as he just does not play as well as his salary indicates he should. The Houston Rockets are a contender in the market for a point guard that can space the floor as well as distribute the ball to superstars SG James Harden and C Dwight Howard, and Calderon can offer exactly that. The Knicks could give Calderon and their 2017 first rounder (they don’t have very many future draft picks) in exchange for the expiring contract of SG Jason Terry. For Houston, current PG Patrick Beverley and Calderon could battle for the starting job, with the former offering excellent defense and the latter supplying good offense. Another candidate to be dealt is Calderon’s backup, PG Pablo Prigioni. Prigioni is in just his second year in the NBA at 37 years old, but can still shoot from deep, as he's averaging a three per game this year. The Cleveland Cavaliers have been in the market for a veteran floor general to backup star PG Kyrie Irving this season, and Prigioni fits the bill. Cleveland still has the lesser of Chicago and Portland’s second round picks for this upcoming draft left over after dealing many draft picks to acquire SG’s J.R Smith and Iman Shumpert, as well as C Timofey Mozgov in a separate deal. Cleveland can convey this pick to New York in exchange for Prigioni’s services. For the Cavaliers, they get exactly what they wanted. Prigioni can run the point in the second unit and space the floor very well, and is a major upgrade over current backup PG Matthew Dellavedova. For the Knicks, Prigioni’s contract runs into next year, and so just getting rid of his $1.5 million would be a plus for them, and getting a late second rounder makes this trade that much better. However, to make the finances of this deal work, Cleveland would have to send the cheap expiring contracts of role players PG Matthew Dellavedova and SF James Jones to New York. There’s a sale going on in New York, and “everything must go.”
The Fit: PG Matthew Dellavedova and SF James Jones, who would potentially be acquired from Cleveland in the Prigioni deal, would be nothing more than contract fill-ins to make a trade work: they will likely never play in New York again following this season, as would SG Jason Terry, who would be received from Houston in a Calderon trade. Any or all of these players may actually see significant opportunity and playing time with the Knicks this season, which speaks much more to how bad the team currently is than to any of these players’ actual talent. Dellavedova would compete with PG Shane Larkin for minutes at point guard, with Larkin being the only floor general left on the Knicks roster if both Prigioni and Calderon were to be dealt. SF James Jones, once one of the most feared shooters in the league, but he is well past his prime and has really fallen off track this year, averaging less than one three-pointer and just 3.6 points in only 10 minutes per game. He is unlikely to post any better numbers than he has been, even on a depleted Knicks team, as SF’s Quincy Acy, Lance Thomas, and rookie Cleanthony Early are backing up superstar SF/PF Carmelo Anthony, though ‘Melo does play a lot of power forward. SG Jason Terry is also fairly washed up, but is putting together a nice year, averaging 7.5 points and 1.7 triples in 21.5 minutes per contest. He could fight for minutes at the two along with young, emerging players SG Tim Hardaway Jr. and SG Langston Galloway. However, head coach Derek Fisher would be foolish to bench his youngsters in favor of either of these veterans, as the Knicks are currently in the midst of a lost season which they have more interest in losing than winning. None of Dellavedova, Terry, nor Jones figure to have any sort of long-term fit in New York. C Marc Gasol, however, obviously figures to have a long-term role in New York. Named to his first All-Star game as a starter, Gasol has certainly deserved the honor, even in the brutal Western Conference. Averaging 18.6 ppg on 50% shooting from the field as well as 81% from the charity stripe, the younger of the Gasol brothers is capable of being a primary scorer, from the post, pick-and-roll, midrange or wherever he is needed. In addition, Gasol is a defensive anchor, winning Defensive Player of the Year honors in 2013 and averaging 1.7 blocks and 1 steal per game, as well as hauling in over 8 rebounds. Gasol also leads all centers with 4 assists a game, an absolutely critical skill in the triangle offense where ball movement is key. PG Goran Dragic, on the other hand, will run the point for the triangle in New York. A lethal shooter who is averaging 16.5 points and 1.5 threes per game while making half his shots, Dragic is the optimal fit for any triangle offense. Though not as good a distributor as other point guards in the NBA today, Dragic’s 5 dimes per game over the last two seasons are nothing to laugh at; especially when you consider that ball movement doesn't just come from the point guard in the triangle. With Dragic, Carmelo, Gasol, a top-5 selection in the draft and others, Phil Jackson may yet bring a long-awaited title to New York.
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