Season Predictions 2016
Current seeding: 12th
Projected seeding: 12th
With all due respect, it’s never a good sign when SF Alonzo Gee leads your team in games played. Such is the case for New Orleans and their fans, who have watched season-ending injuries to SG Eric Gordon, SF/SG Tyreke Evans, and have witnessed C Omer Asik and PG Norris Cole miss significant time due to injuries as well. Speaking of Asik, that $60 million contract you gave him this summer, and the $20 million you gave C Alexis Ajinca, is looking even dumber now than it did at the time, if that’s even possible. Yes, I’m looking at you, GM Dell Demps. Anyways, superstar PF/C Anthony Davis, PG Jrue Holiday, and PF Ryan Anderson have been guiding forces for the team, performing well and missing minimal time this season, but there just hasn’t been enough talent around them at any given period of time. Allow me:
Dear Mr. Demps,
This roster needs an overhaul: everybody not named Anthony Davis should be put on the trading block. Return with a solid building block or two and adequate depth, and start over. Because what you have clearly is not working.
Sincerely, anyone who has watched the Pelicans at all in the past few years.
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Miami Heat Trade Grades
Pelicans get: PF Jarnell Stokes
Heat get: "Highly protected" draft pick, $$$
New Orleans has absolutely nothing to lose in this deal, as that pick will likely never reach Miami, so I guess this can only be a good thing. With C Omer Asik's disappointing season, the Pelicans could use an extra big body next to superstar PF/C Anthony Davis. Stokes has only appeared in 19 NBA games, all with Memphis, in which he averaged 3 points and 1.8 rebounds, and has spent most of his career in the D-League. But he's only 22, and "nothing to lose", right?
Grade: A-
Trade Grades
(Click here for a link to Philadelphia 76ers' Trade Grades)
76ers get: PG Ish Smith
Pelicans get: 2016 second-rounder via Denver, 2017 second-rounder
With star PG Jrue Holiday finally back to full health (we think), and a competent backup in PG Norris Cole, Smith and his relatively impressive play (9 points per game, 6 assists per game) became an expendable and valuable trade chip. And while these two likely-early second-round picks do possess some decent value, it wasn't what the Pelicans should have been shopping Smith for. Behind the oft-injured and sometimes inconsistent wing duo of SG Eric Gordon and SF/SG Tyreke Evans, New Orleans' top reserve was SF Alonzo Gee, who is averaging all of 4 points per game this season. The $80 million paid to centers Omer Asik and Alexis Ajinca this summer looks even dumber now than it did at the time, with the two combining for 7.5 points, 8 rebounds, and just 1 block per game this season. Remember, this was in an effort to get superstar PF/C Anthony Davis to play more power forward, and the experiment has been a complete failure thus far. My point is that the Pelicans had holes up and down their roster, from wing to center, that needed to be addressed, and a second-rounder two years from now just isn't ideal an ideal fix in any sense.
Grade: C+
Power Rankings
Overall Ranking: 12th
Tier: Playoff Locks
Projected Seeding: 7th in West
The New Orleans Anthony Davis'... err, I mean... the New Orleans Pelicans, have built a solid squad around well, Anthony Davis! "The Unibrow" is an absolute freak of nature, averaging 24.4 points, 10.2 rebounds, 2.9 blocks, and 1.5 steals per game while hitting 53.5% of his shots from the field and 80.5% from the charity stripe. The scariest part? He's only 22 years old, and is already an MVP-frontrunner and perhaps the best player on the planet. It would be nice if the rest of New Orleans' starting five were four Anthony Davis-clones, but alas, PG Jrue Holiday, SG Eric Gordon, SF/SG Tyreke Evans, and C Omer Asik will have to do. The backcourt has potential, as all three of those players have experienced several highs and lows throughout their careers, but many of these past issues can be attributed due to injuries. C Omer Asik got paid like a star this offseason, but all he really does is rebound and help alleviate some of Davis' interior defense responsibilities, as Asik struggles on the offensive end. The bench is shabby as well, with PG Norris Cole and PF Ryan Anderson being the only legitimate rotation players beyond the starting five. However, this team still has a mega-super-duper-star in Davis, and as the 2000s Cavaliers can attest: that will get you into the playoffs year after year for sure, but anything beyond that will need a better supporting cast.
Best/Worst Draft Scenarios
The New Orleans Pelicans do not have a first-round pick in this year's draft.
Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams
After narrowly beating out the Thunder for the eighth and Final playoff spot out West, the Pelicans must take on the #1 seeded Golden State Warriors in the first round of the playoffs, an almost impossible task. However, if everything swings in their favor, New Orleans might be able to make life hard on Golden State. It goes without saying that this all starts with superstar PF/C Anthony Davis, who will be playing in his first career playoff game. He must be absolutely unstoppable in this series for the Pelicans to even win a single game, both on the offensive end as well as shutting down the rim on defense and also in the rebounding department. C Omer Asik will not be able to provide much offense, but must take a considerable burden off of Davis' shoulders in terms of rim protection and rebounding. The guard trio of PG Jrue Holiday, SG Eric Gordon, and SF/SG Tyreke Evans, as well as PF Ryan Anderson, must take on a large portion of the scoring, too. We all know that these guys can put the ball in the basket, but doing it efficiently, something that they have struggled with all season, could be the determining factor. In addition, a sub-par bench must be able to at least keep things competitive against the Warriors' second unit, which is perhaps the best in basketball. Nobody will be stopping, or even containing for that matter, the superstar backcourt duo of PG/SG Stephen Curry and SG/SF Klay Thompson that Golden State boasts, but if all else goes according to plan, don't be surprised to see New Orleans win two -- maybe even three -- games against the hottest team in the league.
Draft Targets
Pick #58 (via Memphis): Treveon Graham, Shooting Guard/Small Forward, VCU
This late in the draft, the Pelicans will likely just look to add depth at their weakest position, and that’s probably shooting guard. Graham fits the bill, and is averaging 16.5 points, 7 rebounds, and 2 threes per game, which will likely make him among the top players available at this point. He has a massive frame for his position, putting it to use with his impressive rebounding numbers, as well as being a solid defender. Great value considering this is the third to last pick in the entire draft.
Season Predictions
Regular Season: The Pelicans are the ultimate victims of the impossible Western Conference. For a few reasons:
Projected Record: 44-38, 9th in West
Trade Grades
Pelicans get: PG Norris Cole, SF/PF Shawne Williams
Suns get: SF/SG Danny Granger, SF/SG John Salmons, C Justin Hamilton, Miami’s 2017 first-rounder (top 7 protected), Miami’s 2021 first-rounder
Heat get: PG/SG Goran Dragic, SG Zoran Dragic (Goran’s brother)
New Orleans was kind of just third-wheeling on this trade. They were one of those teams that clearly didn’t have to be involved in a larger trade, but that generally works out in those teams’ favor (just ask the 76ers). This was no different, as the Pelicans addressed their glaring hole at point guard in wake of star PG Jrue Holiday’s latest injury. Cole fills this hole, as although he hasn’t improved from last year, the 26 year old is still averaging 6.5 points, 3.5 assists, and 1 steal per contest in 24.5 minutes. Williams has reportedly been waived by New Orleans, and Salmons produced next to nothing. That’s odd, because that’s exactly what the Pelicans gave up in order to acquire Cole’s services.
Grade: A-
One Trade That Every Team Should Do
New Orleans gets: SG Lance Stephenson, SG/SF Gerald Henderson
Charlotte gets: SG Eric Gordon
Finances: In this trade, the money is a big deal. All three players have unsightly contracts that run for two years, as Gordon is due for a combined $30.4 million in those two years, while Lance and Henderson are owed a combined $18 million and $12 million, respectively, in the same span. Gordon has always been a dubious contract, while Lance has just had a disappointing year after what was thought to be a great offseason signing for Charlotte, and Henderson has also been disappointing for the Hornets after his 3 year/$18 million extension seemed to make sense. This trade is pretty much breaking down one bad contract into two for the Pelicans.
The Fit: As touched on above, we don’t really know if Stephenson and Henderson are actually bad contracts, as they were good last year but not this year. After leading the league in triple-doubles with averages of 14 points on a nice 49% shooting, 7 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game, Stephenson’s numbers have really fallen off this year: 9 points on a dismal 37% shooting, to go with just 5.5 rebounds and 5 assists per game. The same goes for Henderson, who after averaging 15.5 and 14 points per game in each of the past two seasons, is putting up just 11 points a contest this year. Still, Stephenson and Henderson both have potential, and as their contracts add up to that of Gordon’s anyways, this is nice low-risk, high-reward trade for New Orleans
Why the other team does it: Charlotte is just desperate to get rid of Stephenson at this point, as it is clear that he’s a horrible fit for them. Gordon, like both Lance and Henderson, has shown flashes of talent in past years, as he put up 15.5 points and 1.5 threes per game just last year. However, also like the other shooting guards, Gordon is having a relatively disappointing campaign this year: 12.5 points and 2 threes per game on a poor 42% shooting. However, there is upside here, and getting rid of Henderson’s poor contract helps. Somehow, it seems like both teams get a low-risk, high-reward deal here.
State of the Franchise
Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $20.6 million
Background: The Pelicans have one of the most talented players in the NBA in PF Anthony Davis. His incredible shot blocking along with his scoring on the other side of the court make him arguably the best two way player in the league. The Pelicans, however, have been unable to capitalize and build a good team around him. Before they drafted Davis in 2012, they had traded superstar PG Chris Paul for a package highlighted by SG Eric Gordon. Then In 2013, they traded their 1st round pick, 6th overall, for star PG Jrue Holiday from the Philadelphia 76ers. That offseason they also traded with the Sacramento Kings for SF Tyreke Evans. All three of these players haven't really worked out for New Orleans, and have also suffered various injuries throughout the past couple of years. This past season, they traded a first round pick for the $15 million expiring contract of C Omer Asik. Currently, they are not in the playoff picture and are due for a major retool.
Current Financial State: The Pelicans have invested a lot of their money in four players: Asik, Holiday, Gordon, and Evans. Asik and Gordon are both being paid $15 million a year, while Holiday and Evans each receive $11 million annually. Asik's contract, however, is coming off the books this offseason. Gordon has a player option for next year, which he is likely to accept, and Holiday and Evans are both on contract through the 2016-17 season. Davis is still on his rookie contract and is clearly due for an extension soon. The Pelicans are paying a lot of money here and aren't even a playoff team. They have to clear up some cap room and they cannot wait for 3 years. Their best option is to ship out these contracts elsewhere.
Targets: The Pelicans won't be looking to fill specific holes in their team this deadline, but will instead be looking for takers for their plethora of huge contracts who can return some expiring deals to the Big Easy. The easiest contract to move would be Eric Gordon's deal. Gordon's contract will likely come off the books in 2016, the year of the stacked free agent class. Even if a team takes his contract, they will maintain cap flexibility for free agency that year. Teams that would target him would likely have playoff aspirations who need help with shooting or at the SG position. A team that fits this mold perfectly is the Charlotte Hornets. With a disappointing year thus far by SG Lance Stephenson, who they just signed to a 3 year/$27 million deal, the Hornets have dropped significantly from the playoff team they were last year. Now they are shopping Stephenson aggressively. The Pelicans would like to acquire Stephenson because he is much more cost-efficient than Gordon, and still provides talent as well. The trade would generally just be a swap between the guards but because of the roughly $6 million gap, the Hornets would also have to add the expiring contract of C Bismack Biyombo. This gives the Pelicans cap flexibility along with the cap relief of dealing away Gordon.
The Fit: Lance Stephenson could fit in really well with the Pelicans. He brings on ball defense, playmaking ability, and fills the stat sheet. Last season, in Indiana, Stephenson showed plenty of talent, leading the league in triple doubles. His defense complements Holiday's offense nicely, and can allow Holiday to take it a little bit easier on defense. He can provide additional scoring and give them more flexibility with their lineups because he can run the point whenever needed. Although this move might be more for financial reasons than on the court, Stephenson could really boost this team as he had shown in flashes last season.
Current seeding: 12th
Projected seeding: 12th
With all due respect, it’s never a good sign when SF Alonzo Gee leads your team in games played. Such is the case for New Orleans and their fans, who have watched season-ending injuries to SG Eric Gordon, SF/SG Tyreke Evans, and have witnessed C Omer Asik and PG Norris Cole miss significant time due to injuries as well. Speaking of Asik, that $60 million contract you gave him this summer, and the $20 million you gave C Alexis Ajinca, is looking even dumber now than it did at the time, if that’s even possible. Yes, I’m looking at you, GM Dell Demps. Anyways, superstar PF/C Anthony Davis, PG Jrue Holiday, and PF Ryan Anderson have been guiding forces for the team, performing well and missing minimal time this season, but there just hasn’t been enough talent around them at any given period of time. Allow me:
Dear Mr. Demps,
This roster needs an overhaul: everybody not named Anthony Davis should be put on the trading block. Return with a solid building block or two and adequate depth, and start over. Because what you have clearly is not working.
Sincerely, anyone who has watched the Pelicans at all in the past few years.
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Miami Heat Trade Grades
Pelicans get: PF Jarnell Stokes
Heat get: "Highly protected" draft pick, $$$
New Orleans has absolutely nothing to lose in this deal, as that pick will likely never reach Miami, so I guess this can only be a good thing. With C Omer Asik's disappointing season, the Pelicans could use an extra big body next to superstar PF/C Anthony Davis. Stokes has only appeared in 19 NBA games, all with Memphis, in which he averaged 3 points and 1.8 rebounds, and has spent most of his career in the D-League. But he's only 22, and "nothing to lose", right?
Grade: A-
Trade Grades
(Click here for a link to Philadelphia 76ers' Trade Grades)
76ers get: PG Ish Smith
Pelicans get: 2016 second-rounder via Denver, 2017 second-rounder
With star PG Jrue Holiday finally back to full health (we think), and a competent backup in PG Norris Cole, Smith and his relatively impressive play (9 points per game, 6 assists per game) became an expendable and valuable trade chip. And while these two likely-early second-round picks do possess some decent value, it wasn't what the Pelicans should have been shopping Smith for. Behind the oft-injured and sometimes inconsistent wing duo of SG Eric Gordon and SF/SG Tyreke Evans, New Orleans' top reserve was SF Alonzo Gee, who is averaging all of 4 points per game this season. The $80 million paid to centers Omer Asik and Alexis Ajinca this summer looks even dumber now than it did at the time, with the two combining for 7.5 points, 8 rebounds, and just 1 block per game this season. Remember, this was in an effort to get superstar PF/C Anthony Davis to play more power forward, and the experiment has been a complete failure thus far. My point is that the Pelicans had holes up and down their roster, from wing to center, that needed to be addressed, and a second-rounder two years from now just isn't ideal an ideal fix in any sense.
Grade: C+
Power Rankings
Overall Ranking: 12th
Tier: Playoff Locks
Projected Seeding: 7th in West
The New Orleans Anthony Davis'... err, I mean... the New Orleans Pelicans, have built a solid squad around well, Anthony Davis! "The Unibrow" is an absolute freak of nature, averaging 24.4 points, 10.2 rebounds, 2.9 blocks, and 1.5 steals per game while hitting 53.5% of his shots from the field and 80.5% from the charity stripe. The scariest part? He's only 22 years old, and is already an MVP-frontrunner and perhaps the best player on the planet. It would be nice if the rest of New Orleans' starting five were four Anthony Davis-clones, but alas, PG Jrue Holiday, SG Eric Gordon, SF/SG Tyreke Evans, and C Omer Asik will have to do. The backcourt has potential, as all three of those players have experienced several highs and lows throughout their careers, but many of these past issues can be attributed due to injuries. C Omer Asik got paid like a star this offseason, but all he really does is rebound and help alleviate some of Davis' interior defense responsibilities, as Asik struggles on the offensive end. The bench is shabby as well, with PG Norris Cole and PF Ryan Anderson being the only legitimate rotation players beyond the starting five. However, this team still has a mega-super-duper-star in Davis, and as the 2000s Cavaliers can attest: that will get you into the playoffs year after year for sure, but anything beyond that will need a better supporting cast.
Best/Worst Draft Scenarios
The New Orleans Pelicans do not have a first-round pick in this year's draft.
Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams
After narrowly beating out the Thunder for the eighth and Final playoff spot out West, the Pelicans must take on the #1 seeded Golden State Warriors in the first round of the playoffs, an almost impossible task. However, if everything swings in their favor, New Orleans might be able to make life hard on Golden State. It goes without saying that this all starts with superstar PF/C Anthony Davis, who will be playing in his first career playoff game. He must be absolutely unstoppable in this series for the Pelicans to even win a single game, both on the offensive end as well as shutting down the rim on defense and also in the rebounding department. C Omer Asik will not be able to provide much offense, but must take a considerable burden off of Davis' shoulders in terms of rim protection and rebounding. The guard trio of PG Jrue Holiday, SG Eric Gordon, and SF/SG Tyreke Evans, as well as PF Ryan Anderson, must take on a large portion of the scoring, too. We all know that these guys can put the ball in the basket, but doing it efficiently, something that they have struggled with all season, could be the determining factor. In addition, a sub-par bench must be able to at least keep things competitive against the Warriors' second unit, which is perhaps the best in basketball. Nobody will be stopping, or even containing for that matter, the superstar backcourt duo of PG/SG Stephen Curry and SG/SF Klay Thompson that Golden State boasts, but if all else goes according to plan, don't be surprised to see New Orleans win two -- maybe even three -- games against the hottest team in the league.
Draft Targets
Pick #58 (via Memphis): Treveon Graham, Shooting Guard/Small Forward, VCU
This late in the draft, the Pelicans will likely just look to add depth at their weakest position, and that’s probably shooting guard. Graham fits the bill, and is averaging 16.5 points, 7 rebounds, and 2 threes per game, which will likely make him among the top players available at this point. He has a massive frame for his position, putting it to use with his impressive rebounding numbers, as well as being a solid defender. Great value considering this is the third to last pick in the entire draft.
Season Predictions
Regular Season: The Pelicans are the ultimate victims of the impossible Western Conference. For a few reasons:
- They would likely be among the best teams in the East, even more so than their record indicates, as they have been playing against West teams for the majority of their schedule, as opposed to East teams if they played in the joke conference.
- They feature superstar PF/C Anthony Davis, one of the best players in the league at just 21 years old. How could us basketball fans not be able to watch him in the postseason?
- They play in New Orleans! Look at a map! How does that put them in the WESTERN conference?!
Projected Record: 44-38, 9th in West
Trade Grades
Pelicans get: PG Norris Cole, SF/PF Shawne Williams
Suns get: SF/SG Danny Granger, SF/SG John Salmons, C Justin Hamilton, Miami’s 2017 first-rounder (top 7 protected), Miami’s 2021 first-rounder
Heat get: PG/SG Goran Dragic, SG Zoran Dragic (Goran’s brother)
New Orleans was kind of just third-wheeling on this trade. They were one of those teams that clearly didn’t have to be involved in a larger trade, but that generally works out in those teams’ favor (just ask the 76ers). This was no different, as the Pelicans addressed their glaring hole at point guard in wake of star PG Jrue Holiday’s latest injury. Cole fills this hole, as although he hasn’t improved from last year, the 26 year old is still averaging 6.5 points, 3.5 assists, and 1 steal per contest in 24.5 minutes. Williams has reportedly been waived by New Orleans, and Salmons produced next to nothing. That’s odd, because that’s exactly what the Pelicans gave up in order to acquire Cole’s services.
Grade: A-
One Trade That Every Team Should Do
New Orleans gets: SG Lance Stephenson, SG/SF Gerald Henderson
Charlotte gets: SG Eric Gordon
Finances: In this trade, the money is a big deal. All three players have unsightly contracts that run for two years, as Gordon is due for a combined $30.4 million in those two years, while Lance and Henderson are owed a combined $18 million and $12 million, respectively, in the same span. Gordon has always been a dubious contract, while Lance has just had a disappointing year after what was thought to be a great offseason signing for Charlotte, and Henderson has also been disappointing for the Hornets after his 3 year/$18 million extension seemed to make sense. This trade is pretty much breaking down one bad contract into two for the Pelicans.
The Fit: As touched on above, we don’t really know if Stephenson and Henderson are actually bad contracts, as they were good last year but not this year. After leading the league in triple-doubles with averages of 14 points on a nice 49% shooting, 7 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game, Stephenson’s numbers have really fallen off this year: 9 points on a dismal 37% shooting, to go with just 5.5 rebounds and 5 assists per game. The same goes for Henderson, who after averaging 15.5 and 14 points per game in each of the past two seasons, is putting up just 11 points a contest this year. Still, Stephenson and Henderson both have potential, and as their contracts add up to that of Gordon’s anyways, this is nice low-risk, high-reward trade for New Orleans
Why the other team does it: Charlotte is just desperate to get rid of Stephenson at this point, as it is clear that he’s a horrible fit for them. Gordon, like both Lance and Henderson, has shown flashes of talent in past years, as he put up 15.5 points and 1.5 threes per game just last year. However, also like the other shooting guards, Gordon is having a relatively disappointing campaign this year: 12.5 points and 2 threes per game on a poor 42% shooting. However, there is upside here, and getting rid of Henderson’s poor contract helps. Somehow, it seems like both teams get a low-risk, high-reward deal here.
State of the Franchise
Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $20.6 million
Background: The Pelicans have one of the most talented players in the NBA in PF Anthony Davis. His incredible shot blocking along with his scoring on the other side of the court make him arguably the best two way player in the league. The Pelicans, however, have been unable to capitalize and build a good team around him. Before they drafted Davis in 2012, they had traded superstar PG Chris Paul for a package highlighted by SG Eric Gordon. Then In 2013, they traded their 1st round pick, 6th overall, for star PG Jrue Holiday from the Philadelphia 76ers. That offseason they also traded with the Sacramento Kings for SF Tyreke Evans. All three of these players haven't really worked out for New Orleans, and have also suffered various injuries throughout the past couple of years. This past season, they traded a first round pick for the $15 million expiring contract of C Omer Asik. Currently, they are not in the playoff picture and are due for a major retool.
Current Financial State: The Pelicans have invested a lot of their money in four players: Asik, Holiday, Gordon, and Evans. Asik and Gordon are both being paid $15 million a year, while Holiday and Evans each receive $11 million annually. Asik's contract, however, is coming off the books this offseason. Gordon has a player option for next year, which he is likely to accept, and Holiday and Evans are both on contract through the 2016-17 season. Davis is still on his rookie contract and is clearly due for an extension soon. The Pelicans are paying a lot of money here and aren't even a playoff team. They have to clear up some cap room and they cannot wait for 3 years. Their best option is to ship out these contracts elsewhere.
Targets: The Pelicans won't be looking to fill specific holes in their team this deadline, but will instead be looking for takers for their plethora of huge contracts who can return some expiring deals to the Big Easy. The easiest contract to move would be Eric Gordon's deal. Gordon's contract will likely come off the books in 2016, the year of the stacked free agent class. Even if a team takes his contract, they will maintain cap flexibility for free agency that year. Teams that would target him would likely have playoff aspirations who need help with shooting or at the SG position. A team that fits this mold perfectly is the Charlotte Hornets. With a disappointing year thus far by SG Lance Stephenson, who they just signed to a 3 year/$27 million deal, the Hornets have dropped significantly from the playoff team they were last year. Now they are shopping Stephenson aggressively. The Pelicans would like to acquire Stephenson because he is much more cost-efficient than Gordon, and still provides talent as well. The trade would generally just be a swap between the guards but because of the roughly $6 million gap, the Hornets would also have to add the expiring contract of C Bismack Biyombo. This gives the Pelicans cap flexibility along with the cap relief of dealing away Gordon.
The Fit: Lance Stephenson could fit in really well with the Pelicans. He brings on ball defense, playmaking ability, and fills the stat sheet. Last season, in Indiana, Stephenson showed plenty of talent, leading the league in triple doubles. His defense complements Holiday's offense nicely, and can allow Holiday to take it a little bit easier on defense. He can provide additional scoring and give them more flexibility with their lineups because he can run the point whenever needed. Although this move might be more for financial reasons than on the court, Stephenson could really boost this team as he had shown in flashes last season.
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