Season Predictions 2016
Current seeding: 5th
Projected seeding: 4th
Miami, even in the post-LeBron era, is a very powerful force if healthy. The only problem, of course, is that is a very big “if” -- one that is troubled further by star PF/C Chris Bosh’s blood clot issues at the second consecutive All-Star break. Thankfully for the Heat, and obviously for Bosh’s own personal well-being, news has recently broke that the big man plans to return “soon” and quite possibly even before the end of the regular season. The pairing of Bosh and C Hassan Whiteside is the perfect pairing in theory: Whiteside is a dominant clean-up scorer, shot-blocker, and rebounder; while Bosh is proficient in those areas as well but particularly excels in inside-outside scoring. Of course franchise legend SG Dwyane Wade hasn’t gone anywhere, as even at the ripe old age of 34, he’s still getting it done, being named to his 13th straight All-Star game and leading Miami with 19.3 points per game. PG Goran Dragic and SF Luol Deng round out an impressive starting five, with the recent signing of SG/SF Joe Johnson providing a huge boost to both the second unit, outside scoring, and Wade’s knees -- as with no capable backup behind him, the legend could rarely take the rest he needed at this stage of his career. The bench has also been revamped: from rookie sensation SG/SF Justise Winslow to PF/C Amare Stoudemire. As I said, a very powerful force.*
*when healthy
First round: Charlotte Hornets (5)
You could make a very strong case to me that these are the 7th and 8th best teams in all of basketball -- behind (no particular order) the Warriors, Spurs, Cavaliers, Thunder, Clippers, and and Raptors (yes, I see you Boston and Atlanta). But as luck would have it, the circumstances (conferences, injuries to Bosh and C Al Jefferson, those pesky Celtics) dictate, or my circumstances dictate rather, that one of these teams will be going home in the first round. With the return of Jefferson, the Hornets now finally have their dominant low-post presence back. This make it all the more difficult to guard against Charlotte’s barrage of shooters, further bolstered by the acquisition of SG Courtney Lee. And then of course there’s the problem of star PG/SG Kemba Walker: a speedy guard averaging 21.4 points per game who can pass, drive, or shoot before you can blink. The best way to stop Kemba is by meeting him at the rim when he drives, as staying in front of him is nearly impossible. This means that a lot of the onus falls on Whiteside, and not just to limit Walker’s points inside either, but to keep the low-post scorer Al Jefferson in check as well; neither task is easy. But if Whiteside can handle that job to an extent, while head coach Erik Spoelstra keeps him surrounded by four other quality defenders, then the Heat can do a lot to limit Charlotte’s two stars while also allocating enough men to guard against the three-pointers. After that, it just comes down to putting up enough points offensively to win, and there’s no reason why Wade, Bosh, et al cannot lead the charge per usual.
Prediction: Miami wins, 4-2
Second round: Cleveland Cavaliers (1)
The King returns to Miami! …only that he’ll be wearing a Cleveland jersey. Even with The Decision: Part Two well in the rearview mirror, the atmosphere in this series is sure to be tense, as not only the act itself, but the way that LeBron left the Heat has surely left a bitter taste in their mouths. But it’s important to keep in mind that LeBron came back home for a reason. Yes, a lot of it was just to “come back home”, but even as great as Wade and Bosh still are, it’s clear that James legitimately thought that he would have a better chance of winning with the Cavs than with the Heat. And so just as much as Miami wants to prove that he made the wrong decision, LeBron’s teammates will want to prove that he made the right one, but it won’t be easy for them. Let me start by saying that Miami would have absolutely no shot at all if SF Luol Deng was unable to do something to slow down LeBron just a little bit. Also paramount for the Heat is for the Bosh-Whiteside duo to triumph over Cleveland’s big men: Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson, Timofey Mozgov, etc, and win the battle inside. That means out-scoring, out-rebounding, and out-defending, while much of the offense comes from the Dragic-Wade backcourt and a second unit boost. That would be the ideal, but the reality would probably look a lot more like Kyrie Irving and LeBron taking over, while Cleveland will simply have a huge advantage in three-pointers.
Prediction: Cleveland wins, 4-2
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Portland Trail Blazers' Trade Grades
Heat get: More $$$
Blazers get: PG Brian Roberts, second-round pick
In all honesty, this was quite a beautiful series of moves by Pat Riley to get under the luxury tax. It's unlikely that Arison would have wanted to pay up for a team with so many question marks, and Riley was able to save his boss some serious money at the cost of a few second-rounders and the Birdman, all told. Would we really expect anything less from Riley?
Unfortunately, however, the legendary Brian Roberts era in Miami has come to a close:
2/16/16 - 2/18/16.
Grade: A
Trade Grades
Click here for link to New Orleans Pelicans Trade Grades
Pelicans get: PF Jarnell Stokes
Heat get: "Highly protected" draft pick, $$$
A very minor move that could speak volumes about Miami's aspirations for this season. The Heat shave $2.1 million off their luxury tax bill here, while also opening up a small $845,000 trade exception. Combined with the previous trade, owner Micky Arison could save up to $8 million.
The draft pick, however, is protected to the point where it will never reach Miami. Stokes is also essentially a non-factor in this deal, as he was only in the team's D-League in Sioux Falls. The 22 year old had averaged 3 points and 1.8 rebounds in 19 games for the Grizzlies in his rookie year.
My point about the trade speaking volumes is that, when you look at this combined with the Andersen trade, combined with the subsequent Brian Roberts trade, it is clear that Miami's only goal is to clear cap space. And with the Dragic-Wade pairing not going as planned, Bosh dealing with a second wave of blood clots, and the uncertainty surrounding C Hassan Whiteside's future, there is actually some sense to prioritize money over wins at this point, as awful as that sounds.
Grade: A-
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Memphis Grizzlies Trade Grades
Click here for link to Charlotte Hornets Trade Grades
Grizzlies get: C/PF Chris Andersen, SG/SF P.J Hairston, 2 second-round picks (via Miami), 2 second-round picks (via Charlotte)
Heat get: PG Brian Roberts
Hornets get: SG Courtney Lee
Sorry Jesse J, but this one's all about the "money, money, money". This trade brings owner Micky Arison's luxury tax bill from $14.3 million down to $8.8 million, probably the main plus of this deal for Miami. In addition, Andersen has been of little to no tangible value this season, appearing in just 7 games and averaging a mere 1.9 points and 1.3 rebounds in 5 minutes per game. Roberts, on the other hand, is averaging 15.7 points per 36 minutes and offers another productive option at point guard at head coach Erik Spoelstra's disposal, which is made all the more important by PG Goran Dragic's struggles this season.
However, the cons of this deal are also apparent. For starters, I understand how willing Arison has been to pay up in the past for an elite team, but two valuable second-round draft picks should not outweigh a "slightly larger" luxury tax bill.
In addition, between PF/C Chris Bosh's latest blood clots keeping him out indefinitely, the trade rumors swirling around star C Hassan Whiteside, and the "meh" seasons of backup PF's Josh McRoberts and Amare Stoudemire, does it really make sense for Miami to trade away a big man, no matter how (un)productive?
Grade: B-
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Memphis Grizzlies Trade Grades
Heat get: PG/SG Beno Udrih, PF/C Jarnell Stoks
Grizzlies get: PG Mario Chalmers, SF James Ennis
Letting a two-time champion that has worn your uniform his whole career go is never easy, but Miami had little choice here. After recently handing star PG Goran Dragic $90 million as well as being considerably above the luxury tax line, PG Mario Chalmers and his $4.3 million contract were made rather expendable for financial reasons. Chalmers, however, is no more than a backup point guard that can run the second-unit and hit threes, and even his three-point percentage has fallen off a cliff over the past couple of years. Udrih, although a downgrade from Chalmers, will likely slide in rather seamlessly for the Kansas product as Dragic's chief backup, along with emerging SG/PG Tyler Johnson. Ennis and Stokes, meanwhile, don't really move the needle much for either side, as both are solid prospects yet neither can make an impact right away nor are they locks to pan out long-term. Pat Riley and Co did an excellent job of trimming salary while doing minimal damage to the team's core.
Grade: A-
Power Rankings
Overall Rank: 9th
Tier: Playoff Locks
Projected Seeding: 3rd in East
Unlike the 1999 Bulls and 2011 Cavaliers, who went into a downward spiral after losing the world's best player, that took years to escape, the Heat have an elite roster just one year removed from losing superstar SF/PF LeBron James in free agency, which has to be largely credited to Pat Riley and the rest of Miami's front office. Star PG Goran Dragic runs the point, while the aging and injury-prone, yet still productive, franchise star SG Dwyane Wade makes up the backcourt. PF/C Chris Bosh, after sitting out half of last season due to blood clots, is perhaps the team's number one option on offense, and defensive studs SF Luol Deng and breakout C Hassan Whiteside form arguably the league's most complete starting five. The bench is also looking good, featuring #10 pick rookie SG/SF Justise Winslow, the high-flying SF/SG Gerald Green, and several other key role players, such as PF/C Amare Stoudemire, PG Mario Chalmers, and C Chris "Birdman" Anderson. Miami could be a title contender by the end of the year, if they remain healthy, but that could be a big "if". Wade has missed at least 20 games in each of the last couple of seasons, and Chris Bosh of course missed plenty of action last year as well, among others. A couple other potential red flags are that this starting five has not ever logged a single minute together, and guys like Wade, Stoudemire and Anderson are really getting up there in years. However, if these red flags prove to not be so severe, particularly health, expect Miami to be Cleveland's chief competition out East.
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Orlando Magic Trade Grades
Magic get: PG Shabazz Napier
Heat get: Second-round pick from Orlando (protected on numbers 31-55)
That draft pick is protected to the point where it will never reach Miami. Much of the motivation in trading up and drafting Napier in the late first-round in the 2014 draft was to appease superstar SF/PF LeBron James. James was quite fond of the UConn product, but obviously chose to return to Cleveland nonetheless. Napier had a decent rookie season, posting 5.1 points and 2.5 assists in limited minutes, mostly as a third-stringer. However, with Miami now having star Goran Dragic and a solid backup in Mario Chalmers at point guard, there was little use for Napier. Trading away his rookie deal that would potentially pay Napier $8.5 million over the next 4 years made sense for a team that is constantly working against the cap, but failing to receive any assets in return for a first-rounder that has done just fine to this point is a little concerning.
Grade: B-
Thanks to Jakob Flores (@jakeswgr.102613) for his contribution to this trade grade
Best/Worst Draft Scenarios
(#10 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Drafting SF/PF Stanley Johnson (Arizona, Freshman)
As SG/SF Mario Hezonja doesn’t really fit the “realistic” criteria all the way down at number ten, Miami’s best case scenario on draft night is nabbing consensus top-10 prospect Stanley Johnson. He has tremendous size and strength, allowing him to grab 6.5 rebounds per game and average 1.5 steals per game, along with his excellent defensive instincts for the latter, of course. Not only can he score down-low, but he also knocked down one-three a game on 37% from deep, so he can really stretch the floor for a Heat team that badly needs both that and depth on the wing. Although unlikely, it’s far from impossible that Johnson is available by the time Miami is on the clock.
Worst Case Scenario: There really is none
For Miami, they should go into the draft with one main target in mind: SG Devin Booker. Obviously, if a Porzingis, Hezonja, or Johnson were to fall to them by some miracle, Pat Riley and Co would seize the opportunity. However, Booker is sure to be available at number ten, and he is an excellent fit -- he provides three-point shooting and wing depth for a team that badly needs both. He’s a pure shooter with Klay Thompson-potential, averaging 10 points and 1.5 threes per game on a ridiculous 41% shooting from beyond the arc, but lacks a complete all-around game, at least until he develops further. He is a good defender, however, and also possesses elite basketball I.Q. There is no “bad case scenario” for the Heat on draft night -- only a good one, which would be a guy like Johnson falling to them.
Draft Targets
Pick #40: Jarell Martin, Power Forward, LSU
It’s unlikely that Martin falls this far, but if he does, Pat Riley and Co would be foolish to pass him up. The Heat could use another big guy down low, especially one who’s averaging 17 points and 9 rebounds on 51% shooting from the field, as well as 2 steals and blocks combined per game. Martin lacks range, but is a beast around the basket and can score in a variety of ways. To Miami, however, his most important qualities will be his rebounding and defense, both aspects he excels at.
Season Predictions
Regular Season: Perhaps the most unlucky team over the past year, the Heat have constantly had to make the best out of a bad situation. First it was superstar SF/PF LeBron James leaving in free agency, giving Miami no warning at all and taking a few key role players for the Heat with him back to Cleveland. Mastermind Pat Riley still somehow put together a competitive squad, featuring a couple of superstarsin SG Dwyane Wade and PF/C Chris Bosh, as well as nice new additions in SF Luol Deng and PF Josh McRoberts. To summarize the season: Wade has been injured very often this year, Deng has been okay but not great, and both McRoberts and Bosh are out for the year with respective injuries (prayers to Bosh for his blood clots on his lungs), leaving the Heat with a gigantic hole at power forward. This news about Bosh came hours after the Heat acquired star PG/SG Goran Dragic from Phoenix for next to nothing, so just as things were looking up again, news like this comes. The superstar-esque play of C Hassan Whiteside recently came out of nowhere, and he does a lot to help ease the pain of all these injuries and the lack of a certain four-time MVP (LeBron). Still, even though this Heat team is running on fumes, Dragic and Wade form a very intimidating backcourt and Deng and Whiteside are fantastic players, particularly on defense, as well. Playing in the East helps a lot, so the Heat shouldn’t have too many issues clinching a lower playoff spot, despite their sub-.500 record due to injuries.
Projected Record: 38-44
Playoffs Round One
Toronto Raptors (#2) vs. Miami Heat (#7)
This is sure to be a thrilling matchup. Miami’s star guard duo will go toe-to-toe with stars PG Kyle Lowry and SG/SF DeMar DeRozan in the backcourt, while Deng will deal with come combination of the sweet-shooting, crazy-dunking SG/SF Terrence Ross and a defensive ace almost of Deng’s caliber in SF/PF James Johnson. Whiteside and makeshift PF Udonis Haslem vs. productive C Jonas Valunciunas and PF Patrick Patterson is also a fairly even battle up front. Keep in mind that this is an even-ish matchup because: 1. Miami dealt with a ton of injuries and 2. Toronto was just a couple of games away from the #4 seed, which also explains their difference in seeding. However, Toronto does maintain an advantage in team chemistry, home-court as they are the higher seed, and in depth off the bench. They are absolutely capable of winning this matchup, and should be considered the favorites, as I would not be surprised if they avoid an upset. However, this all sounds eerily familiar to the sixth-seeded Brooklyn Nets last year, who took down the Raptors in an exciting seven-game series, despite Toronto holding the same edges that it does against Miami. Case in point.
Series Prediction: Miami wins 4-3
Playoffs Round Two
Cleveland Cavaliers (#3) vs. Miami Heat (#7)
Uh-oh. King James returns to South Beach!!! ... only for a couple of road games. The heat will be on (see what I did there), as Miami looks to show LeBron that he made the wrong choice. This is a tall order, however, as “The King” has an army. His generals are stars PG Kyrie Irving and PF/C Kevin Love, with plenty of soldiers that complement their abilities well, particularly on defense. Though Miami may hold an advantage in the backcourt and Luol Deng has proven from his days in Chicago that he is capable of containing, not shutting down but containing, LeBron. Whiteside should also provide a big lift, but the Cavaliers have the big bodies to counter him. The Heat come very close to actually drawing even with Cleveland as far as the starting lineup goes, but Miami will get killed in the second-unit as they simply lack bench production, while Cleveland does not. This will ultimately be their downfall in the series, as well as not having as much playoff experience as the Cavaliers, while not being able to really make that up by taking advantage of the Cavaliers’ poor team chemistry. After four very successful years in Miami and leaving Cleveland in the dust, this series almost serves as a passing of the torch of beasts in the East under King James (though Atlanta might have something to say about that).
Series Prediction: Cleveland wins 4-2
Trade Grades
Heat get: PG/SG Goran Dragic, SG Zoran Dragic (Goran’s brother)
Suns get: SF/SG Danny Granger, SF/SG John Salmons, C Justin Hamilton, Miami’s 2017 first-rounder (top 7 protected), Miami’s 2021 first-rounder
Pelicans get: PG Norris Cole, SF/PF Shawne Williams
This move could really go both ways for Pat Riley. On one hand, Goran Dragic, Wade, Deng, Bosh, and Whiteside could form one of the most talented starting lineups in the entire league. On the other, Dragic is a flight risk this summer and Miami gave up two first-rounders. I’m a Heat fan, yes, but I still maintain the former. Dragic is one of the better point guards in the entire league, and is averaging 16 points, 4 assists, 3.5 rebounds, 1.5 threes, and 1 steal per game while hitting half his shots as well as 71% at the rim, which leads all guards. This is a downgrade from last season, where he was handed a full-time starting role in Phoenix and was voted to the All-NBA Third Team, and there’s no reason he can’t do that again in Miami with him clearly being the primary floor general. In addition, it is more than likely that Dragic sticks around, as he listed the Heat as one of his three preferred trade destinations yesterday, and tweeted out “NOW it's #heatnation time and I'm excited to bring the Dragon's fire to Miami!!” That sure sounds like a guy that wants to stay to me, and spare parts and a couple of picks well into the future are worth it if it means potentially building a championship squad in the present.
Grade: A-
One Trade That Every Team Should Do
Miami gets: SG/SF Arron Afflalo, PG Erick Green
Denver gets: PG Shabazz Napier, C Chris Andersen, Philadelphia’s 2015 second-rounder
Finances: It is hard to call someone as key to two title teams’ success as Andersen was a “cap-filler”, but that’s pretty much what he is in this trade, as he’s due for a slightly pricey $10.3 million over the next two years. He’s involved in order to even out Afflalo’s contract, whose current two year contract is worth $15.3 million. Napier and Green are on rookie deals, worth $1.2 million and $500,000 respectively, though Green is more of a benchwarmer while Napier is a role player in just his rookie season. Andersen and Afflalo are the only major deals in this trade, and they’re involved to cancel each other’s contracts out.
The Fit: Miami has been lacking a quality backup to star SG Dwyane Wade all season, and Afflalo represents more than just a quality backup. Averaging 14.5 points and 1.5 threes per game, Afflalo can also shift over to backup SF Luol Deng. Having a player of Afflalo’s caliber gives the Heat a much-needed second-unit scorer, as well as a Sixth Man of the Year candidate. Losing Napier hurts, but the rookie was really only traded for in the failed attempt to keep superstar SF/PF LeBron James (CLE) in South Beach. Green can come in and play as the third stringer behind PG’s Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole to almost the same affect that Napier was. The loss of Andersen hurts a lot less with the emergence of C/PF Hassan Whiteside, and a second-rounder shouldn’t cause Miami to lose sleep at night, as they are looking to build a title contender in 2016. There are some lost assets in this deal that do hurt, but it is well worth it to bring in the likes of Arron Afflalo.
Why the other team does it: Denver is a rebuilding team, who is shopping the likes of Afflalo, among others, in exchange for young players and draft picks. Though Andersen’s contract runs into next year, it shouldn’t be a problem as the Nuggets will likely have a ton of cap space anyways. The young players and draft picks come in the form of Napier and the second-rounder, respectively. Napier is a two-time champion at UConn, and can bring a winning pedigree as well as potential to a Nuggets team that lacks the former, even in his rookie year. The second-rounder is really more of a first-rounder, as the pick is from Philadelphia, making it a very early second-round selection. This package for Afflalo is a nice one, and it really helps get the rebuild underway in Denver.
State of the Franchise
Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $6.4 million
Background: Much like the Pacers, Miami's championship hopes were dashed when they learned that their superstar would not be playing for them next season. Only for Miami, that superstar was the best player in the world. Worse, he wasn't just injured for one year. He had left them for good. When LeBron James suddenly decided to return to Cleveland, where he had one title appearance and zero titles in seven years, over his Heat, where he had four title appearances and two titles in four years, he left mastermind president Pat Riley to frantically put together a team that could still be competitive. Of course, never doubt Pat Riley, who coached the showtime Lakers of the 80s that brought five more titles to LA, featuring PG Magic Johnson and C Kareem-Abdul Jabbar, the 90s Knicks starring C Patrick Ewing, and the 2006 Miami Heat title team, led by SG Dwyane Wade and C Shaquille O'Neal, as well as bringing the "Big Three" of Lebron, PF/C Chris Bosh, and Wade to Miami , and the two ensuing titles. Following James' sudden departure, the legend was able to keep Bosh in town on a max deal, despite a strong push from the Houston Rockets for Bosh's services. Defensive ace SF Luol Deng was brought in to replace James, do-it-all PF Josh McRoberts was signed on the full mid-level exception, and Heat-lifer Dwyane Wade took a massive pay cut to make it all possible. The Heat weren't expected to be as successful as they were with LeBron, but they were still supposed to remain very competitive. However, that hasn't necessarily been the case. Miami finds themselves under .500 at midseason, though the team is still likely to make the playoffs in the weak Eastern Conference. It is hard to point to anyone specific for the Heat's misfortunes, other than LeBron of course, and there has rather been a series of unfortunate injuries. Notably, McRoberts is likely out for the year, and Bosh, Deng, and especially Wade have all missed time with injuries, among others. Several role players, including C Hassan Whiteside, have all stepped up, but the Heat's once-frenetic defense has fallen to among the worst in the NBA. However, there is still hope for Miami to become title town once again. Other than Bosh and McRoberts, all contracts are set to expire in 2016, and Riley figures to do a repeat of 2010, where Bosh, James, and Wade were united in Miami. Of course, Riley will have both the cap and the pedigree to lure a couple of superstars to South Beach in what could be the most loaded free agent class of all time.
Current Financial State: The Heat will have very little wiggle room this off-season, as just about every player on the team right now is under contract through next season, with almost all of them expiring then. Miami will have about $7 million to spend this offseason before the luxury tax, but nobody will be signed for a contract lasting longer than one year. This is because Riley has made it very clear that he intends to go all-in for the 2016 free agent class by making sure he has the money available, with under $30 million committed for that season. However, it becomes much easier to make a pitch to a superstar to come play for your team if you are coming off a successful season, so Riley should invest in somebody this year on a short-term contract to improve the team’s record, thereby increasing his chances of landing a stud. Got it? Good. Let’s move on.
Targets: But why wait until free agency this season to find someone who can make it an impact? The Heat have been lacking a quality backup SG to Wade since Ray Allen retired this past year, and this becomes a much more glaring issue when you consider how much time Wade has been missing with various injuries. The hottest SG currently on the trade market is immature-but-talented Lance Stephenson. The trade I have worked out would go as follows: the Hornets give Lance and the cheap expiring deal of PF Jason Maxiell in exchange for PG Norris Cole and PF Josh McRoberts as well as Miami’s second-rounder. This deal is all about two things for each team: injury replacements and failed offseason signings. For Charlotte, PG Kemba Walker is expected to miss about a month and a half with a knee injury, and with the East wide open, Charlotte is currently looking to the trade market for a point guard, with already rumored interest in Cole. The Stephenson signing was a disaster from the get-go, as poor shooting and injuries have been the main reason for Charlotte’s struggles this season. Speaking of bad signings this offseason, McRoberts is sort of an odd case in this deal. He was a free agent this past offseason, playing with Charlotte the previous year, and chose to sign with the Heat over the then-Bobcats. McRoberts, as touched on above, has been a disaster for the Heat, although it is likely that the main cause of his poor performance are injuries. The Hornets’ need for a McRoberts-esque player, a power forward who can shoot, pass, and defend, has been most glaring in this disappointing season. McRoberts to Charlotte would be best for all parties involved. For Miami, this couldn’t have been a more perfect deal from a financial standpoint. Stephenson is on a 3 year/$27 million deal, but with a team option on the third year that Miami will decline in order to save cap space for the 2016 offseason. McRoberts was the only player not named Chris Bosh to have a contract running past that off-season, and now Miami will have even more cap in what could be the most stacked free agency of all time, while addressing a need in the present.
The Fit: This one is almost self-explanatory. Losing Cole and McRoberts certainly hurts, but with PG Mario Chalmers starting over Cole anyways, and rookie PG Shabazz Napier on call, Miami can afford to lose a point guard. McRoberts could be out for the season anyways, and with the recent emergence of C Hassan Whiteside allowing Bosh to play more power forward, Miami can easily take the downgrade from McRoberts to Jason Maxiell at the four. The second round pick is no big deal, as the Heat could have quite a few of them this year anyways. As for what they’re getting back, SG Lance Stephenson represents a low-risk, high-reward sort of player, considering how little Miami has to give up for him due to how desperate Charlotte is to get rid of him, and for a point guard and a power forward as well. Miami has been lacking a quality backup shooting guard to Wade this season, as legendary SG Ray Allen is now retired (sort of). Lance can easily fill this hole, and Wade can even occasionally run the point like he used to do, while Lance can play the two. When Wade is injured, Lance will immediately become a full-time starter at shooting guard. Stephenson’s offensive game is still developing, and although he has been shooting poorly this season, he did average 14 ppg last year on a solid 48% shooting, where he also led the league in triple-doubles. The Heat will not ask much of Lance, who is bursting with potential, but if Wade were to go down, the antic-full SG must be ready to step up.
Current seeding: 5th
Projected seeding: 4th
Miami, even in the post-LeBron era, is a very powerful force if healthy. The only problem, of course, is that is a very big “if” -- one that is troubled further by star PF/C Chris Bosh’s blood clot issues at the second consecutive All-Star break. Thankfully for the Heat, and obviously for Bosh’s own personal well-being, news has recently broke that the big man plans to return “soon” and quite possibly even before the end of the regular season. The pairing of Bosh and C Hassan Whiteside is the perfect pairing in theory: Whiteside is a dominant clean-up scorer, shot-blocker, and rebounder; while Bosh is proficient in those areas as well but particularly excels in inside-outside scoring. Of course franchise legend SG Dwyane Wade hasn’t gone anywhere, as even at the ripe old age of 34, he’s still getting it done, being named to his 13th straight All-Star game and leading Miami with 19.3 points per game. PG Goran Dragic and SF Luol Deng round out an impressive starting five, with the recent signing of SG/SF Joe Johnson providing a huge boost to both the second unit, outside scoring, and Wade’s knees -- as with no capable backup behind him, the legend could rarely take the rest he needed at this stage of his career. The bench has also been revamped: from rookie sensation SG/SF Justise Winslow to PF/C Amare Stoudemire. As I said, a very powerful force.*
*when healthy
First round: Charlotte Hornets (5)
You could make a very strong case to me that these are the 7th and 8th best teams in all of basketball -- behind (no particular order) the Warriors, Spurs, Cavaliers, Thunder, Clippers, and and Raptors (yes, I see you Boston and Atlanta). But as luck would have it, the circumstances (conferences, injuries to Bosh and C Al Jefferson, those pesky Celtics) dictate, or my circumstances dictate rather, that one of these teams will be going home in the first round. With the return of Jefferson, the Hornets now finally have their dominant low-post presence back. This make it all the more difficult to guard against Charlotte’s barrage of shooters, further bolstered by the acquisition of SG Courtney Lee. And then of course there’s the problem of star PG/SG Kemba Walker: a speedy guard averaging 21.4 points per game who can pass, drive, or shoot before you can blink. The best way to stop Kemba is by meeting him at the rim when he drives, as staying in front of him is nearly impossible. This means that a lot of the onus falls on Whiteside, and not just to limit Walker’s points inside either, but to keep the low-post scorer Al Jefferson in check as well; neither task is easy. But if Whiteside can handle that job to an extent, while head coach Erik Spoelstra keeps him surrounded by four other quality defenders, then the Heat can do a lot to limit Charlotte’s two stars while also allocating enough men to guard against the three-pointers. After that, it just comes down to putting up enough points offensively to win, and there’s no reason why Wade, Bosh, et al cannot lead the charge per usual.
Prediction: Miami wins, 4-2
Second round: Cleveland Cavaliers (1)
The King returns to Miami! …only that he’ll be wearing a Cleveland jersey. Even with The Decision: Part Two well in the rearview mirror, the atmosphere in this series is sure to be tense, as not only the act itself, but the way that LeBron left the Heat has surely left a bitter taste in their mouths. But it’s important to keep in mind that LeBron came back home for a reason. Yes, a lot of it was just to “come back home”, but even as great as Wade and Bosh still are, it’s clear that James legitimately thought that he would have a better chance of winning with the Cavs than with the Heat. And so just as much as Miami wants to prove that he made the wrong decision, LeBron’s teammates will want to prove that he made the right one, but it won’t be easy for them. Let me start by saying that Miami would have absolutely no shot at all if SF Luol Deng was unable to do something to slow down LeBron just a little bit. Also paramount for the Heat is for the Bosh-Whiteside duo to triumph over Cleveland’s big men: Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson, Timofey Mozgov, etc, and win the battle inside. That means out-scoring, out-rebounding, and out-defending, while much of the offense comes from the Dragic-Wade backcourt and a second unit boost. That would be the ideal, but the reality would probably look a lot more like Kyrie Irving and LeBron taking over, while Cleveland will simply have a huge advantage in three-pointers.
Prediction: Cleveland wins, 4-2
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Portland Trail Blazers' Trade Grades
Heat get: More $$$
Blazers get: PG Brian Roberts, second-round pick
In all honesty, this was quite a beautiful series of moves by Pat Riley to get under the luxury tax. It's unlikely that Arison would have wanted to pay up for a team with so many question marks, and Riley was able to save his boss some serious money at the cost of a few second-rounders and the Birdman, all told. Would we really expect anything less from Riley?
Unfortunately, however, the legendary Brian Roberts era in Miami has come to a close:
2/16/16 - 2/18/16.
Grade: A
Trade Grades
Click here for link to New Orleans Pelicans Trade Grades
Pelicans get: PF Jarnell Stokes
Heat get: "Highly protected" draft pick, $$$
A very minor move that could speak volumes about Miami's aspirations for this season. The Heat shave $2.1 million off their luxury tax bill here, while also opening up a small $845,000 trade exception. Combined with the previous trade, owner Micky Arison could save up to $8 million.
The draft pick, however, is protected to the point where it will never reach Miami. Stokes is also essentially a non-factor in this deal, as he was only in the team's D-League in Sioux Falls. The 22 year old had averaged 3 points and 1.8 rebounds in 19 games for the Grizzlies in his rookie year.
My point about the trade speaking volumes is that, when you look at this combined with the Andersen trade, combined with the subsequent Brian Roberts trade, it is clear that Miami's only goal is to clear cap space. And with the Dragic-Wade pairing not going as planned, Bosh dealing with a second wave of blood clots, and the uncertainty surrounding C Hassan Whiteside's future, there is actually some sense to prioritize money over wins at this point, as awful as that sounds.
Grade: A-
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Memphis Grizzlies Trade Grades
Click here for link to Charlotte Hornets Trade Grades
Grizzlies get: C/PF Chris Andersen, SG/SF P.J Hairston, 2 second-round picks (via Miami), 2 second-round picks (via Charlotte)
Heat get: PG Brian Roberts
Hornets get: SG Courtney Lee
Sorry Jesse J, but this one's all about the "money, money, money". This trade brings owner Micky Arison's luxury tax bill from $14.3 million down to $8.8 million, probably the main plus of this deal for Miami. In addition, Andersen has been of little to no tangible value this season, appearing in just 7 games and averaging a mere 1.9 points and 1.3 rebounds in 5 minutes per game. Roberts, on the other hand, is averaging 15.7 points per 36 minutes and offers another productive option at point guard at head coach Erik Spoelstra's disposal, which is made all the more important by PG Goran Dragic's struggles this season.
However, the cons of this deal are also apparent. For starters, I understand how willing Arison has been to pay up in the past for an elite team, but two valuable second-round draft picks should not outweigh a "slightly larger" luxury tax bill.
In addition, between PF/C Chris Bosh's latest blood clots keeping him out indefinitely, the trade rumors swirling around star C Hassan Whiteside, and the "meh" seasons of backup PF's Josh McRoberts and Amare Stoudemire, does it really make sense for Miami to trade away a big man, no matter how (un)productive?
Grade: B-
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Memphis Grizzlies Trade Grades
Heat get: PG/SG Beno Udrih, PF/C Jarnell Stoks
Grizzlies get: PG Mario Chalmers, SF James Ennis
Letting a two-time champion that has worn your uniform his whole career go is never easy, but Miami had little choice here. After recently handing star PG Goran Dragic $90 million as well as being considerably above the luxury tax line, PG Mario Chalmers and his $4.3 million contract were made rather expendable for financial reasons. Chalmers, however, is no more than a backup point guard that can run the second-unit and hit threes, and even his three-point percentage has fallen off a cliff over the past couple of years. Udrih, although a downgrade from Chalmers, will likely slide in rather seamlessly for the Kansas product as Dragic's chief backup, along with emerging SG/PG Tyler Johnson. Ennis and Stokes, meanwhile, don't really move the needle much for either side, as both are solid prospects yet neither can make an impact right away nor are they locks to pan out long-term. Pat Riley and Co did an excellent job of trimming salary while doing minimal damage to the team's core.
Grade: A-
Power Rankings
Overall Rank: 9th
Tier: Playoff Locks
Projected Seeding: 3rd in East
Unlike the 1999 Bulls and 2011 Cavaliers, who went into a downward spiral after losing the world's best player, that took years to escape, the Heat have an elite roster just one year removed from losing superstar SF/PF LeBron James in free agency, which has to be largely credited to Pat Riley and the rest of Miami's front office. Star PG Goran Dragic runs the point, while the aging and injury-prone, yet still productive, franchise star SG Dwyane Wade makes up the backcourt. PF/C Chris Bosh, after sitting out half of last season due to blood clots, is perhaps the team's number one option on offense, and defensive studs SF Luol Deng and breakout C Hassan Whiteside form arguably the league's most complete starting five. The bench is also looking good, featuring #10 pick rookie SG/SF Justise Winslow, the high-flying SF/SG Gerald Green, and several other key role players, such as PF/C Amare Stoudemire, PG Mario Chalmers, and C Chris "Birdman" Anderson. Miami could be a title contender by the end of the year, if they remain healthy, but that could be a big "if". Wade has missed at least 20 games in each of the last couple of seasons, and Chris Bosh of course missed plenty of action last year as well, among others. A couple other potential red flags are that this starting five has not ever logged a single minute together, and guys like Wade, Stoudemire and Anderson are really getting up there in years. However, if these red flags prove to not be so severe, particularly health, expect Miami to be Cleveland's chief competition out East.
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Orlando Magic Trade Grades
Magic get: PG Shabazz Napier
Heat get: Second-round pick from Orlando (protected on numbers 31-55)
That draft pick is protected to the point where it will never reach Miami. Much of the motivation in trading up and drafting Napier in the late first-round in the 2014 draft was to appease superstar SF/PF LeBron James. James was quite fond of the UConn product, but obviously chose to return to Cleveland nonetheless. Napier had a decent rookie season, posting 5.1 points and 2.5 assists in limited minutes, mostly as a third-stringer. However, with Miami now having star Goran Dragic and a solid backup in Mario Chalmers at point guard, there was little use for Napier. Trading away his rookie deal that would potentially pay Napier $8.5 million over the next 4 years made sense for a team that is constantly working against the cap, but failing to receive any assets in return for a first-rounder that has done just fine to this point is a little concerning.
Grade: B-
Thanks to Jakob Flores (@jakeswgr.102613) for his contribution to this trade grade
Best/Worst Draft Scenarios
(#10 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Drafting SF/PF Stanley Johnson (Arizona, Freshman)
As SG/SF Mario Hezonja doesn’t really fit the “realistic” criteria all the way down at number ten, Miami’s best case scenario on draft night is nabbing consensus top-10 prospect Stanley Johnson. He has tremendous size and strength, allowing him to grab 6.5 rebounds per game and average 1.5 steals per game, along with his excellent defensive instincts for the latter, of course. Not only can he score down-low, but he also knocked down one-three a game on 37% from deep, so he can really stretch the floor for a Heat team that badly needs both that and depth on the wing. Although unlikely, it’s far from impossible that Johnson is available by the time Miami is on the clock.
Worst Case Scenario: There really is none
For Miami, they should go into the draft with one main target in mind: SG Devin Booker. Obviously, if a Porzingis, Hezonja, or Johnson were to fall to them by some miracle, Pat Riley and Co would seize the opportunity. However, Booker is sure to be available at number ten, and he is an excellent fit -- he provides three-point shooting and wing depth for a team that badly needs both. He’s a pure shooter with Klay Thompson-potential, averaging 10 points and 1.5 threes per game on a ridiculous 41% shooting from beyond the arc, but lacks a complete all-around game, at least until he develops further. He is a good defender, however, and also possesses elite basketball I.Q. There is no “bad case scenario” for the Heat on draft night -- only a good one, which would be a guy like Johnson falling to them.
Draft Targets
Pick #40: Jarell Martin, Power Forward, LSU
It’s unlikely that Martin falls this far, but if he does, Pat Riley and Co would be foolish to pass him up. The Heat could use another big guy down low, especially one who’s averaging 17 points and 9 rebounds on 51% shooting from the field, as well as 2 steals and blocks combined per game. Martin lacks range, but is a beast around the basket and can score in a variety of ways. To Miami, however, his most important qualities will be his rebounding and defense, both aspects he excels at.
Season Predictions
Regular Season: Perhaps the most unlucky team over the past year, the Heat have constantly had to make the best out of a bad situation. First it was superstar SF/PF LeBron James leaving in free agency, giving Miami no warning at all and taking a few key role players for the Heat with him back to Cleveland. Mastermind Pat Riley still somehow put together a competitive squad, featuring a couple of superstarsin SG Dwyane Wade and PF/C Chris Bosh, as well as nice new additions in SF Luol Deng and PF Josh McRoberts. To summarize the season: Wade has been injured very often this year, Deng has been okay but not great, and both McRoberts and Bosh are out for the year with respective injuries (prayers to Bosh for his blood clots on his lungs), leaving the Heat with a gigantic hole at power forward. This news about Bosh came hours after the Heat acquired star PG/SG Goran Dragic from Phoenix for next to nothing, so just as things were looking up again, news like this comes. The superstar-esque play of C Hassan Whiteside recently came out of nowhere, and he does a lot to help ease the pain of all these injuries and the lack of a certain four-time MVP (LeBron). Still, even though this Heat team is running on fumes, Dragic and Wade form a very intimidating backcourt and Deng and Whiteside are fantastic players, particularly on defense, as well. Playing in the East helps a lot, so the Heat shouldn’t have too many issues clinching a lower playoff spot, despite their sub-.500 record due to injuries.
Projected Record: 38-44
Playoffs Round One
Toronto Raptors (#2) vs. Miami Heat (#7)
This is sure to be a thrilling matchup. Miami’s star guard duo will go toe-to-toe with stars PG Kyle Lowry and SG/SF DeMar DeRozan in the backcourt, while Deng will deal with come combination of the sweet-shooting, crazy-dunking SG/SF Terrence Ross and a defensive ace almost of Deng’s caliber in SF/PF James Johnson. Whiteside and makeshift PF Udonis Haslem vs. productive C Jonas Valunciunas and PF Patrick Patterson is also a fairly even battle up front. Keep in mind that this is an even-ish matchup because: 1. Miami dealt with a ton of injuries and 2. Toronto was just a couple of games away from the #4 seed, which also explains their difference in seeding. However, Toronto does maintain an advantage in team chemistry, home-court as they are the higher seed, and in depth off the bench. They are absolutely capable of winning this matchup, and should be considered the favorites, as I would not be surprised if they avoid an upset. However, this all sounds eerily familiar to the sixth-seeded Brooklyn Nets last year, who took down the Raptors in an exciting seven-game series, despite Toronto holding the same edges that it does against Miami. Case in point.
Series Prediction: Miami wins 4-3
Playoffs Round Two
Cleveland Cavaliers (#3) vs. Miami Heat (#7)
Uh-oh. King James returns to South Beach!!! ... only for a couple of road games. The heat will be on (see what I did there), as Miami looks to show LeBron that he made the wrong choice. This is a tall order, however, as “The King” has an army. His generals are stars PG Kyrie Irving and PF/C Kevin Love, with plenty of soldiers that complement their abilities well, particularly on defense. Though Miami may hold an advantage in the backcourt and Luol Deng has proven from his days in Chicago that he is capable of containing, not shutting down but containing, LeBron. Whiteside should also provide a big lift, but the Cavaliers have the big bodies to counter him. The Heat come very close to actually drawing even with Cleveland as far as the starting lineup goes, but Miami will get killed in the second-unit as they simply lack bench production, while Cleveland does not. This will ultimately be their downfall in the series, as well as not having as much playoff experience as the Cavaliers, while not being able to really make that up by taking advantage of the Cavaliers’ poor team chemistry. After four very successful years in Miami and leaving Cleveland in the dust, this series almost serves as a passing of the torch of beasts in the East under King James (though Atlanta might have something to say about that).
Series Prediction: Cleveland wins 4-2
Trade Grades
Heat get: PG/SG Goran Dragic, SG Zoran Dragic (Goran’s brother)
Suns get: SF/SG Danny Granger, SF/SG John Salmons, C Justin Hamilton, Miami’s 2017 first-rounder (top 7 protected), Miami’s 2021 first-rounder
Pelicans get: PG Norris Cole, SF/PF Shawne Williams
This move could really go both ways for Pat Riley. On one hand, Goran Dragic, Wade, Deng, Bosh, and Whiteside could form one of the most talented starting lineups in the entire league. On the other, Dragic is a flight risk this summer and Miami gave up two first-rounders. I’m a Heat fan, yes, but I still maintain the former. Dragic is one of the better point guards in the entire league, and is averaging 16 points, 4 assists, 3.5 rebounds, 1.5 threes, and 1 steal per game while hitting half his shots as well as 71% at the rim, which leads all guards. This is a downgrade from last season, where he was handed a full-time starting role in Phoenix and was voted to the All-NBA Third Team, and there’s no reason he can’t do that again in Miami with him clearly being the primary floor general. In addition, it is more than likely that Dragic sticks around, as he listed the Heat as one of his three preferred trade destinations yesterday, and tweeted out “NOW it's #heatnation time and I'm excited to bring the Dragon's fire to Miami!!” That sure sounds like a guy that wants to stay to me, and spare parts and a couple of picks well into the future are worth it if it means potentially building a championship squad in the present.
Grade: A-
One Trade That Every Team Should Do
Miami gets: SG/SF Arron Afflalo, PG Erick Green
Denver gets: PG Shabazz Napier, C Chris Andersen, Philadelphia’s 2015 second-rounder
Finances: It is hard to call someone as key to two title teams’ success as Andersen was a “cap-filler”, but that’s pretty much what he is in this trade, as he’s due for a slightly pricey $10.3 million over the next two years. He’s involved in order to even out Afflalo’s contract, whose current two year contract is worth $15.3 million. Napier and Green are on rookie deals, worth $1.2 million and $500,000 respectively, though Green is more of a benchwarmer while Napier is a role player in just his rookie season. Andersen and Afflalo are the only major deals in this trade, and they’re involved to cancel each other’s contracts out.
The Fit: Miami has been lacking a quality backup to star SG Dwyane Wade all season, and Afflalo represents more than just a quality backup. Averaging 14.5 points and 1.5 threes per game, Afflalo can also shift over to backup SF Luol Deng. Having a player of Afflalo’s caliber gives the Heat a much-needed second-unit scorer, as well as a Sixth Man of the Year candidate. Losing Napier hurts, but the rookie was really only traded for in the failed attempt to keep superstar SF/PF LeBron James (CLE) in South Beach. Green can come in and play as the third stringer behind PG’s Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole to almost the same affect that Napier was. The loss of Andersen hurts a lot less with the emergence of C/PF Hassan Whiteside, and a second-rounder shouldn’t cause Miami to lose sleep at night, as they are looking to build a title contender in 2016. There are some lost assets in this deal that do hurt, but it is well worth it to bring in the likes of Arron Afflalo.
Why the other team does it: Denver is a rebuilding team, who is shopping the likes of Afflalo, among others, in exchange for young players and draft picks. Though Andersen’s contract runs into next year, it shouldn’t be a problem as the Nuggets will likely have a ton of cap space anyways. The young players and draft picks come in the form of Napier and the second-rounder, respectively. Napier is a two-time champion at UConn, and can bring a winning pedigree as well as potential to a Nuggets team that lacks the former, even in his rookie year. The second-rounder is really more of a first-rounder, as the pick is from Philadelphia, making it a very early second-round selection. This package for Afflalo is a nice one, and it really helps get the rebuild underway in Denver.
State of the Franchise
Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $6.4 million
Background: Much like the Pacers, Miami's championship hopes were dashed when they learned that their superstar would not be playing for them next season. Only for Miami, that superstar was the best player in the world. Worse, he wasn't just injured for one year. He had left them for good. When LeBron James suddenly decided to return to Cleveland, where he had one title appearance and zero titles in seven years, over his Heat, where he had four title appearances and two titles in four years, he left mastermind president Pat Riley to frantically put together a team that could still be competitive. Of course, never doubt Pat Riley, who coached the showtime Lakers of the 80s that brought five more titles to LA, featuring PG Magic Johnson and C Kareem-Abdul Jabbar, the 90s Knicks starring C Patrick Ewing, and the 2006 Miami Heat title team, led by SG Dwyane Wade and C Shaquille O'Neal, as well as bringing the "Big Three" of Lebron, PF/C Chris Bosh, and Wade to Miami , and the two ensuing titles. Following James' sudden departure, the legend was able to keep Bosh in town on a max deal, despite a strong push from the Houston Rockets for Bosh's services. Defensive ace SF Luol Deng was brought in to replace James, do-it-all PF Josh McRoberts was signed on the full mid-level exception, and Heat-lifer Dwyane Wade took a massive pay cut to make it all possible. The Heat weren't expected to be as successful as they were with LeBron, but they were still supposed to remain very competitive. However, that hasn't necessarily been the case. Miami finds themselves under .500 at midseason, though the team is still likely to make the playoffs in the weak Eastern Conference. It is hard to point to anyone specific for the Heat's misfortunes, other than LeBron of course, and there has rather been a series of unfortunate injuries. Notably, McRoberts is likely out for the year, and Bosh, Deng, and especially Wade have all missed time with injuries, among others. Several role players, including C Hassan Whiteside, have all stepped up, but the Heat's once-frenetic defense has fallen to among the worst in the NBA. However, there is still hope for Miami to become title town once again. Other than Bosh and McRoberts, all contracts are set to expire in 2016, and Riley figures to do a repeat of 2010, where Bosh, James, and Wade were united in Miami. Of course, Riley will have both the cap and the pedigree to lure a couple of superstars to South Beach in what could be the most loaded free agent class of all time.
Current Financial State: The Heat will have very little wiggle room this off-season, as just about every player on the team right now is under contract through next season, with almost all of them expiring then. Miami will have about $7 million to spend this offseason before the luxury tax, but nobody will be signed for a contract lasting longer than one year. This is because Riley has made it very clear that he intends to go all-in for the 2016 free agent class by making sure he has the money available, with under $30 million committed for that season. However, it becomes much easier to make a pitch to a superstar to come play for your team if you are coming off a successful season, so Riley should invest in somebody this year on a short-term contract to improve the team’s record, thereby increasing his chances of landing a stud. Got it? Good. Let’s move on.
Targets: But why wait until free agency this season to find someone who can make it an impact? The Heat have been lacking a quality backup SG to Wade since Ray Allen retired this past year, and this becomes a much more glaring issue when you consider how much time Wade has been missing with various injuries. The hottest SG currently on the trade market is immature-but-talented Lance Stephenson. The trade I have worked out would go as follows: the Hornets give Lance and the cheap expiring deal of PF Jason Maxiell in exchange for PG Norris Cole and PF Josh McRoberts as well as Miami’s second-rounder. This deal is all about two things for each team: injury replacements and failed offseason signings. For Charlotte, PG Kemba Walker is expected to miss about a month and a half with a knee injury, and with the East wide open, Charlotte is currently looking to the trade market for a point guard, with already rumored interest in Cole. The Stephenson signing was a disaster from the get-go, as poor shooting and injuries have been the main reason for Charlotte’s struggles this season. Speaking of bad signings this offseason, McRoberts is sort of an odd case in this deal. He was a free agent this past offseason, playing with Charlotte the previous year, and chose to sign with the Heat over the then-Bobcats. McRoberts, as touched on above, has been a disaster for the Heat, although it is likely that the main cause of his poor performance are injuries. The Hornets’ need for a McRoberts-esque player, a power forward who can shoot, pass, and defend, has been most glaring in this disappointing season. McRoberts to Charlotte would be best for all parties involved. For Miami, this couldn’t have been a more perfect deal from a financial standpoint. Stephenson is on a 3 year/$27 million deal, but with a team option on the third year that Miami will decline in order to save cap space for the 2016 offseason. McRoberts was the only player not named Chris Bosh to have a contract running past that off-season, and now Miami will have even more cap in what could be the most stacked free agency of all time, while addressing a need in the present.
The Fit: This one is almost self-explanatory. Losing Cole and McRoberts certainly hurts, but with PG Mario Chalmers starting over Cole anyways, and rookie PG Shabazz Napier on call, Miami can afford to lose a point guard. McRoberts could be out for the season anyways, and with the recent emergence of C Hassan Whiteside allowing Bosh to play more power forward, Miami can easily take the downgrade from McRoberts to Jason Maxiell at the four. The second round pick is no big deal, as the Heat could have quite a few of them this year anyways. As for what they’re getting back, SG Lance Stephenson represents a low-risk, high-reward sort of player, considering how little Miami has to give up for him due to how desperate Charlotte is to get rid of him, and for a point guard and a power forward as well. Miami has been lacking a quality backup shooting guard to Wade this season, as legendary SG Ray Allen is now retired (sort of). Lance can easily fill this hole, and Wade can even occasionally run the point like he used to do, while Lance can play the two. When Wade is injured, Lance will immediately become a full-time starter at shooting guard. Stephenson’s offensive game is still developing, and although he has been shooting poorly this season, he did average 14 ppg last year on a solid 48% shooting, where he also led the league in triple-doubles. The Heat will not ask much of Lance, who is bursting with potential, but if Wade were to go down, the antic-full SG must be ready to step up.
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