Season Predictions 2016
Current seeding: 15th
Projected seeding: 15th
It was only maybe a couple of years ago when Laker Nation was talking about not only sending Kobe out with one last trip to the playoffs, but having him exit the stage with a ring on the other hand. Yikes. Kobe’s farewell tour has been great, don’t get me wrong: very emotional and well-deserved respect for an absolute legend, and he probably didn’t expect a record much better than this. But “this” is a race to the bottom for LA, so that they can preserve their top-three protected draft pick, and something just seems wrong about that -- it’s just everything un-Kobe. Still, I suppose the Lakers need to start gearing up for the next generation sooner or later, and it’s great that prospects PG/SG Jordan Clarkson, SG/PF D’Angelo Russell, and PF Julius Randle are all having excellent seasons. It seems as if the logical path for the front office to follow in the immediate post-Kobe era is one of the future, rather than the present.
Power Rankings
Overall Ranking: 25th
Tier: Bottom-Feeders
Projected Seeding: 12th in West
The Lakers hoped to come out of this past summer with one or more frontcourt star: they pursued PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge, C DeAndre Jodan, PF/C Greg Monroe, and even a trade for C/PF DeMarcus Cousins in an effort to get aging franchise star SG/SF Kobe Bryant one last crack at title number six. The result? Flipping a future second-rounder for disgruntled C Roy Hibbert. Don't get me wrong: Hibbert is certainly a viable starting center, a productive rebounder and great shot-blocker, but has an alarmingly poor offensive game and field goal percentage considering his 7'2" stature and is certainly no Aldridge or Cousins. Bryant and Hibbert are joined by a trio of youngsters in the starting five: PG/SG D'Angelo Russell, PG/SG Jordan Clarkson, and PF Julius Randle. Despite the solid veteran depth on this team coming from guys like SG/PG Louis William, PF/C Brandon Bass, and SF/SG Nick Young, this squad is still far from a playoff team, even if Kobe is still productive at 37 years old and coming off injury. The future is bright in LA with Russell, Clarkson, and Randle, but it seems more than likely that Bryant will retire without a ring on his other hand.
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Indiana Pacers Trade Grade
Lakers get: C Roy Hibbert
Pacers get: Future second-round pick from Lakers
After swinging for a home run and subsequently striking out on several star big men in free agency -- C DeAndre Jordan, PF/C Greg Monroe, PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge, etc. -- the Lakers at least got a base hit with this deal. It’s as if they signed Hibbert, because they gave up essentially nothing in exchange for him. However, they “signed” the Jamaican to quite a pricey contract: $15.5 million, though it is only for one year. Hibbert has declined over the past couple of seasons, as he was once an elite defender, but is now just an above-average rim protector and rebounder, with a severely limited offensive game. He put up a mediocre 10.6 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks per game on an alarmingly low 44.6% shooting last year in Indiana. However, there is a chance that he returns to his old star-esque self in LA. And as the Lakers had no better use for that $15.5 million, nor does Hibbert possess a long-term contract, nor did they give up any assets at all in exchange for the big man’s services, there is absolutely no risk attached to this deal for L.A. Hibbert, a good defender, is a good fit next to the offensively-minded PF Julius Randle, and gives ever-hopeful Laker fans something more to be hopeful about this upcoming season.
Grade: A-
Thanks to Jakob Flores (@jakeswgr.102613) for his contribution to this trade grade
Best/Worst Draft Scenarios
(#2 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Drafting C Jahlil Okafor (Duke, Freshman)
Yes, if Karl-Anthony Towns somehow fell to them, the Lakers would have a tough decision on their hands. And yes, this is best case scenarios. However, I still maintain that Okafor is a better fit for LA than Towns. A dominant low-post scorer, Okafor averaged 17.3 points per game on a ridiculous 66.4% shooting. He also chipped in 8.5 rebounds per game, and though he does have some issues, is a better defender than given credit for: 1.4 blocks and 0.8 steals per game, with plenty of room to grow on that end of the court. The main knock on him is his horrendous free throw shooting, as he only connected on 51% of them, but again: he has room to grow in that department as well. Despite Towns’ incredible defensive skills, the Lakers are going to need a go-to scorer in their post-Kobe era. Look no further than a national champion.
Worst Case Scenario: Trading the pick in an attempt to send Kobe Bryant out with a bang
Somehow having Towns on the board and taking him would not be a bad pick. Neither would drafting PG/SG D’Angelo Russell, in an effort to groom Kobe’s long-term replacement at shooting guard. PG Emmanuel Mudiay really wouldn’t make much sense, however, as rookie PG Jordan Clarkson was sensational. This would not be as bad as trading the pick in exchange for veterans, however, and to try and give Kobe one last ride. The Lakers need to realize that at this moment, they are not a premier free agent destination, coming off a terrible season. Kobe is on his last legs and injury-prone. The Lakers play in the brutal Western Conference. I could go on. Trading the pick to accelerate their rebuilding process would be a terrible mistake and would mortgage their future. Instead, LA should be happy that it did well in the lottery, and add a big name via the draft to a promising young core that already features Clarkson and fellow rookie PF Julius Randle.
Second Pick
(#27 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Drafting SG Rashad Vaughn (UNLV, Freshman)
Of all my projections for the late first round, I love this fit best. Assuming they take C Jahlil Okafor with the number two pick, the Lakers will still have one unanswered question surrounding the future of the promising young core of PG Jordan Clarkson, PF Julius Randle, and Okafor: who will take over at shooting guard for Kobe Bryant in the post-Kobe era? I couldn’t think of a more optimal fit in this entire draft (proportionally, considering the value) than Vaughn. The 18 year old kid is a young, energetic, dynamic scorer, just like Kobe. He also resembles the Black Mamba in his ability to score anywhere and in any way: beyond the arc, mid-range, inside, slashing to the basket, off the dribble, and more. He’s also very strong and athletic, and these natural gifts help him become a solid defender and giving himself tremendous upside considering how young and talented he is as well. The one knock on Vaughn is his discipline, as he can have a bit of an ego, taking too many shots, lacking a strong work ethic, and have a questionable attitude at times. This is a major turn-off for most teams, which is what causes him to fall this far, but he’s still a young kid and playing with Kobe should solve all attitude issues. It’s not often that you can take a shot at replacing a legend with a relatively worthless late-round draft pick, but that’s exactly what the Lakers can do here as they prepare for a post-Kobe era in Los Angeles.
Worst Case Scenario: Wing players, PG Tyus Jones, all gone
Starting in the early 20s, there’s a slew of players that the Lakers would be satisfied with: SF Justin Anderson, SF Rondae-Hollis Jefferson, SG R.J. Hunter, even PG Tyus Jones, and of course: SG Rashad Vaughn. The Lakers could really use another prospect anywhere, though on the wing would be best. However, there are just enough teams picking ahead of them that the Lakers may lose out on one of these guys. Still, most experts see a major drop-off in talent coming at the pick after the Lakers, with PG/SG Delon Wright (Utah, Senior) joining the others in their tier. However, Wright is not the kind of guy that Los Angeles is targeting, although they’d probably have to settle for him, lest they go high-risk/high-reward on a guy like C Robert Upshaw or PF/C Cliff Alexander, but those two are likely early second-rounders as opposed to the late first. Wright is an imposing figure that stands 6’6”, huge for a point guard, and this helps him to be an excellent rebounder for his position (5 per game) , in addition to being a steal machine on defense (2 per game) while also piling up a block a game. His most important attribute is his passing ability and vision, as he excels at setting the table for his teammates with 5 assists nightly. He’s an average three-point shooter at 35%, but still not a great one, but is outstanding at driving to the basket, drawing contact, and hitting his free throws. Aside from the aforementioned good-but-not-great jump-shot, Wright lacks elite athleticism, which hinders his ability to score at the rim. Above all, the kid is 23 years old, quite a few years older than his fellow prospects, which impedes his potential development, something he might need to do a fair amount of if he hopes to become a star in this league. For a Laker team that would rather just take the guy with the highest upside rather than the one who can contribute immediately, Wright is an okay, but certainly not optimal, pick.
Draft Targets
Pick #4: D’Angelo Russell, Shooting Guard/Point Guard, Ohio State
The consensus top four is as follows: Okafor, Towns, Mudiay, and Russell, in no particular order. This should make the pick easy for the Lakers, and as the SG Kobe Bryant era comes to a close, this is the time to find a long-term replacement for him. PG Jordan Clarkson has been a pleasant surprise, and Russell could be a nice fit next t the rookie over the next decade. He boasts the flashiness that the Lakers just love, and can be a distributor as well as light it up from deep. Definitely way too early to say, but it’s all there for Russell to be Kobe 2.0 in LA, and what can be better than being taught by the Black Mamba himself?
Season Predictions
Regular Season: Arguably the league’s most historic franchise will miss out on the playoffs for the second-straight season, and by a wide margin. Aging veterans and ex-superstars PG Steve Nash and SG Kobe Bryant are on the shelf AGAIN with injuries, and the team is just too replete of talent otherwise to even be remotely competitive, especially out in the Wild West. The Lakers will have cap space for the next couple of upcoming free agency periods, where they could build a contender as LA has always been a premier free agent destination. For now though, they’ll just have to wait as they focus on tanking and getting a top-5 draft choice in order to keep their protected pick away from the 76ers.
Projected Record: 22-60
One Trade That Every Team Should Do
Los Angeles Lakers get: PG/SG Goran Dragic
Phoenix Suns get: C/PF Jordan Hill, Clippers’ 2015 second-rounder, Lakers’ 2016 second-rounder
Finances: It’s rare that you see such large contracts on the move and no cap-fillers to make this trade work. Though Dragic is the star of this trade, Hill is no cap-filler, as he’s due for $18 million over the next two years, with a slightly pricey $9 milllion team option on year two. Dragic also has an option that’s likely to be declined, though his is a player option and it’s for just $7.5 million. The market holds a contract that could exceed $13 million annually for Dragic, so it is likely that both of these players will be free agents this year.
The Fit: With Dragic unlikely to re-sign in Phoenix, they will trade him to a team where he probably would re-sign. Nobody leaves the Lakers in free agency unless they want you to or your name is Dwight Howard, so this looks like a pretty safe bet for Los Angeles. Pairing Dragic, a star guard who is averaging 16 points, 4 assits and 1.5 threes per game, with franchise star SG Kobe Bryant in the backcourt could be enough to lure another star to LA. Dealing Hill makes little-to-no impact for the Lakers, as this is a lost season and bringing Hill back this offseason likely isn’t a top priority. The second-round picks would hopefully mean next to nothing as well, as the Lakers hope to become competitive by luring free agents to Hollywood. Acquiring Dragic would help them do just that, and make them more competitive in the meantime.
Why the other team does it: Dragic has made it clear to the Suns that he will not re-sign after this season, causing them to make several phone calls, one of which presumably includes the Lakers. Getting a package like this as opposed to letting him walk for nothing makes plenty of sense, especially when it includes big man Jordan Hill. Hill is putting together a nice season, with averages of 12.5 points, 8 rebounds, and 1 block per game. He addresses a need in the Suns frontcourt, and the second-rounders certainly help in what could be a new youth movement in Phoenix.
State of the Franchise
Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $40.6 million
Background: In 2010, the Lakers got their revenge on their rival, the Boston Celtics, by beating them in a seven game NBA Finals series. Then, in 2012, they made a risky trade for C Dwight Howard, who was on the last year of his deal and had made no commitment to re-sign. They also signed veteran PG Steve Nash to complete their lineup of franchise SG Kobe Bryant, star PF Pau Gasol, Howard, and Nash himself. There were even talks of the team winning the title that year, but things didn't turn out as expected. All of their stars were constantly battling injuries and old age, except for Howard, and they barely got into the playoffs, sneaking in as the 7th seed. Their title hopes were destroyed when they were swept in the first round by the San Antonio Spurs. Then, they took a major blow when Howard left for Houston in free agency the following year. Pau Gasol left for Chicago this past season and is having a career year at 34 years old with the Bulls this year. Nash and Kobe are still around but are battling their respective injuries as well as father time. After missing out on on big name free agents the past couple of years, the Lakers find themselves near the bottom of the Western Conference. After a disappointing season last year, the Lakers ended up with the 7th pick in the NBA Draft and selected Kentucky standout PF Julius Randle. This year, they took yet another devastating blow when Bryant, a future Hall of Famer, went down with a season ending injury for the second year in a row. However, that may be for the best, as this will improve the Lakers’ draft pick, as they were never a competitive team this season to begin with. Los Angeles looks to rebuild through the draft and free agency around the aging Bryant.
Current Financial State: Although they have a lot of money to spend, they are more restrained than they could have been. Two years ago, they handed Kobe a monstrous 2 year/$48 million extension, which won’t expire until 2016. Although he is perhaps the greatest Laker of all time, his old age and inability to stay healthy and productive have lowered his value. He probably could have taken a pay cut, which would have been best for the franchise. However, the deal has already been inked and they cannot change it now. His contract is the only major contract that stays on the books beyond this upcoming offseason. PG’s Jeremy Lin and Steve Nash's respective $15 million and $9 million contracts expire this year, giving the Lakers a lot of money to spend for yet another offseason. With a lot of cap space available and a stacked free agent class next year, as well as Kobe's coming contract off the books, the Lakers will be looking to add a quality player to help attract a superstar next offseason.
Targets: Although there a lot of stars in this year's free agent class, many of them are unlikely to change teams. A couple of stars that could be on the move are C Marc Gasol (MEM) and PG Rajon Rondo (DAL). Although both are quite satisfied with their current teams, money might be enough to lure them away from their respective homes. The Lakers must hand Gasol a max contract, which could be worth upwards of $80 million over 4 years, if they want any hope of prying him from Memphis. Rondo is worth around 3 years/$45 million, but he might need an overpay incentive as well if the Lakers want to get him, perhaps maybe an extra year with the same annual value. Just to be clear, although the Lakers will target both, they are only going to sign one of them. By only adding one of them, they should not have to worry about going above the luxury tax line and can become more successful next year, thereby increasing their chances of signing a big name free agent in 2016, namely superstar SF/PF Kevin Durant (OKC).
The Fit: The Lakers don't really have many restrictions on their targets this season. The only main issues are that they cannot be a SG, Kobe's natural position, and that they have to be All Star caliber players. Rondo and Gasol fit both these qualifications, but they fit in other ways, too. Rondo is a crafty pass-first PG who can run the offense for the extremely offensively talented Kobe. His defensive abilities can also take some weight off of Bryant’s shoulders, as Rondo can guard the opposing team's best guard. Gasol fits in well because he’s a scorer and he can take some of the heavy scoring load off Kobe. He is also an excellent post defender and rim protector and complements the offensively-minded Julius Randle nicely. The Lakers would be satisfied with either one of these extremely talented players. They are hoping that money will be enough to get one of them, as then they can sign a superstar in the loaded 2016 free agent class and go for Kobe’s sixth title.
Current seeding: 15th
Projected seeding: 15th
It was only maybe a couple of years ago when Laker Nation was talking about not only sending Kobe out with one last trip to the playoffs, but having him exit the stage with a ring on the other hand. Yikes. Kobe’s farewell tour has been great, don’t get me wrong: very emotional and well-deserved respect for an absolute legend, and he probably didn’t expect a record much better than this. But “this” is a race to the bottom for LA, so that they can preserve their top-three protected draft pick, and something just seems wrong about that -- it’s just everything un-Kobe. Still, I suppose the Lakers need to start gearing up for the next generation sooner or later, and it’s great that prospects PG/SG Jordan Clarkson, SG/PF D’Angelo Russell, and PF Julius Randle are all having excellent seasons. It seems as if the logical path for the front office to follow in the immediate post-Kobe era is one of the future, rather than the present.
Power Rankings
Overall Ranking: 25th
Tier: Bottom-Feeders
Projected Seeding: 12th in West
The Lakers hoped to come out of this past summer with one or more frontcourt star: they pursued PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge, C DeAndre Jodan, PF/C Greg Monroe, and even a trade for C/PF DeMarcus Cousins in an effort to get aging franchise star SG/SF Kobe Bryant one last crack at title number six. The result? Flipping a future second-rounder for disgruntled C Roy Hibbert. Don't get me wrong: Hibbert is certainly a viable starting center, a productive rebounder and great shot-blocker, but has an alarmingly poor offensive game and field goal percentage considering his 7'2" stature and is certainly no Aldridge or Cousins. Bryant and Hibbert are joined by a trio of youngsters in the starting five: PG/SG D'Angelo Russell, PG/SG Jordan Clarkson, and PF Julius Randle. Despite the solid veteran depth on this team coming from guys like SG/PG Louis William, PF/C Brandon Bass, and SF/SG Nick Young, this squad is still far from a playoff team, even if Kobe is still productive at 37 years old and coming off injury. The future is bright in LA with Russell, Clarkson, and Randle, but it seems more than likely that Bryant will retire without a ring on his other hand.
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Indiana Pacers Trade Grade
Lakers get: C Roy Hibbert
Pacers get: Future second-round pick from Lakers
After swinging for a home run and subsequently striking out on several star big men in free agency -- C DeAndre Jordan, PF/C Greg Monroe, PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge, etc. -- the Lakers at least got a base hit with this deal. It’s as if they signed Hibbert, because they gave up essentially nothing in exchange for him. However, they “signed” the Jamaican to quite a pricey contract: $15.5 million, though it is only for one year. Hibbert has declined over the past couple of seasons, as he was once an elite defender, but is now just an above-average rim protector and rebounder, with a severely limited offensive game. He put up a mediocre 10.6 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks per game on an alarmingly low 44.6% shooting last year in Indiana. However, there is a chance that he returns to his old star-esque self in LA. And as the Lakers had no better use for that $15.5 million, nor does Hibbert possess a long-term contract, nor did they give up any assets at all in exchange for the big man’s services, there is absolutely no risk attached to this deal for L.A. Hibbert, a good defender, is a good fit next to the offensively-minded PF Julius Randle, and gives ever-hopeful Laker fans something more to be hopeful about this upcoming season.
Grade: A-
Thanks to Jakob Flores (@jakeswgr.102613) for his contribution to this trade grade
Best/Worst Draft Scenarios
(#2 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Drafting C Jahlil Okafor (Duke, Freshman)
Yes, if Karl-Anthony Towns somehow fell to them, the Lakers would have a tough decision on their hands. And yes, this is best case scenarios. However, I still maintain that Okafor is a better fit for LA than Towns. A dominant low-post scorer, Okafor averaged 17.3 points per game on a ridiculous 66.4% shooting. He also chipped in 8.5 rebounds per game, and though he does have some issues, is a better defender than given credit for: 1.4 blocks and 0.8 steals per game, with plenty of room to grow on that end of the court. The main knock on him is his horrendous free throw shooting, as he only connected on 51% of them, but again: he has room to grow in that department as well. Despite Towns’ incredible defensive skills, the Lakers are going to need a go-to scorer in their post-Kobe era. Look no further than a national champion.
Worst Case Scenario: Trading the pick in an attempt to send Kobe Bryant out with a bang
Somehow having Towns on the board and taking him would not be a bad pick. Neither would drafting PG/SG D’Angelo Russell, in an effort to groom Kobe’s long-term replacement at shooting guard. PG Emmanuel Mudiay really wouldn’t make much sense, however, as rookie PG Jordan Clarkson was sensational. This would not be as bad as trading the pick in exchange for veterans, however, and to try and give Kobe one last ride. The Lakers need to realize that at this moment, they are not a premier free agent destination, coming off a terrible season. Kobe is on his last legs and injury-prone. The Lakers play in the brutal Western Conference. I could go on. Trading the pick to accelerate their rebuilding process would be a terrible mistake and would mortgage their future. Instead, LA should be happy that it did well in the lottery, and add a big name via the draft to a promising young core that already features Clarkson and fellow rookie PF Julius Randle.
Second Pick
(#27 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Drafting SG Rashad Vaughn (UNLV, Freshman)
Of all my projections for the late first round, I love this fit best. Assuming they take C Jahlil Okafor with the number two pick, the Lakers will still have one unanswered question surrounding the future of the promising young core of PG Jordan Clarkson, PF Julius Randle, and Okafor: who will take over at shooting guard for Kobe Bryant in the post-Kobe era? I couldn’t think of a more optimal fit in this entire draft (proportionally, considering the value) than Vaughn. The 18 year old kid is a young, energetic, dynamic scorer, just like Kobe. He also resembles the Black Mamba in his ability to score anywhere and in any way: beyond the arc, mid-range, inside, slashing to the basket, off the dribble, and more. He’s also very strong and athletic, and these natural gifts help him become a solid defender and giving himself tremendous upside considering how young and talented he is as well. The one knock on Vaughn is his discipline, as he can have a bit of an ego, taking too many shots, lacking a strong work ethic, and have a questionable attitude at times. This is a major turn-off for most teams, which is what causes him to fall this far, but he’s still a young kid and playing with Kobe should solve all attitude issues. It’s not often that you can take a shot at replacing a legend with a relatively worthless late-round draft pick, but that’s exactly what the Lakers can do here as they prepare for a post-Kobe era in Los Angeles.
Worst Case Scenario: Wing players, PG Tyus Jones, all gone
Starting in the early 20s, there’s a slew of players that the Lakers would be satisfied with: SF Justin Anderson, SF Rondae-Hollis Jefferson, SG R.J. Hunter, even PG Tyus Jones, and of course: SG Rashad Vaughn. The Lakers could really use another prospect anywhere, though on the wing would be best. However, there are just enough teams picking ahead of them that the Lakers may lose out on one of these guys. Still, most experts see a major drop-off in talent coming at the pick after the Lakers, with PG/SG Delon Wright (Utah, Senior) joining the others in their tier. However, Wright is not the kind of guy that Los Angeles is targeting, although they’d probably have to settle for him, lest they go high-risk/high-reward on a guy like C Robert Upshaw or PF/C Cliff Alexander, but those two are likely early second-rounders as opposed to the late first. Wright is an imposing figure that stands 6’6”, huge for a point guard, and this helps him to be an excellent rebounder for his position (5 per game) , in addition to being a steal machine on defense (2 per game) while also piling up a block a game. His most important attribute is his passing ability and vision, as he excels at setting the table for his teammates with 5 assists nightly. He’s an average three-point shooter at 35%, but still not a great one, but is outstanding at driving to the basket, drawing contact, and hitting his free throws. Aside from the aforementioned good-but-not-great jump-shot, Wright lacks elite athleticism, which hinders his ability to score at the rim. Above all, the kid is 23 years old, quite a few years older than his fellow prospects, which impedes his potential development, something he might need to do a fair amount of if he hopes to become a star in this league. For a Laker team that would rather just take the guy with the highest upside rather than the one who can contribute immediately, Wright is an okay, but certainly not optimal, pick.
Draft Targets
Pick #4: D’Angelo Russell, Shooting Guard/Point Guard, Ohio State
The consensus top four is as follows: Okafor, Towns, Mudiay, and Russell, in no particular order. This should make the pick easy for the Lakers, and as the SG Kobe Bryant era comes to a close, this is the time to find a long-term replacement for him. PG Jordan Clarkson has been a pleasant surprise, and Russell could be a nice fit next t the rookie over the next decade. He boasts the flashiness that the Lakers just love, and can be a distributor as well as light it up from deep. Definitely way too early to say, but it’s all there for Russell to be Kobe 2.0 in LA, and what can be better than being taught by the Black Mamba himself?
Season Predictions
Regular Season: Arguably the league’s most historic franchise will miss out on the playoffs for the second-straight season, and by a wide margin. Aging veterans and ex-superstars PG Steve Nash and SG Kobe Bryant are on the shelf AGAIN with injuries, and the team is just too replete of talent otherwise to even be remotely competitive, especially out in the Wild West. The Lakers will have cap space for the next couple of upcoming free agency periods, where they could build a contender as LA has always been a premier free agent destination. For now though, they’ll just have to wait as they focus on tanking and getting a top-5 draft choice in order to keep their protected pick away from the 76ers.
Projected Record: 22-60
One Trade That Every Team Should Do
Los Angeles Lakers get: PG/SG Goran Dragic
Phoenix Suns get: C/PF Jordan Hill, Clippers’ 2015 second-rounder, Lakers’ 2016 second-rounder
Finances: It’s rare that you see such large contracts on the move and no cap-fillers to make this trade work. Though Dragic is the star of this trade, Hill is no cap-filler, as he’s due for $18 million over the next two years, with a slightly pricey $9 milllion team option on year two. Dragic also has an option that’s likely to be declined, though his is a player option and it’s for just $7.5 million. The market holds a contract that could exceed $13 million annually for Dragic, so it is likely that both of these players will be free agents this year.
The Fit: With Dragic unlikely to re-sign in Phoenix, they will trade him to a team where he probably would re-sign. Nobody leaves the Lakers in free agency unless they want you to or your name is Dwight Howard, so this looks like a pretty safe bet for Los Angeles. Pairing Dragic, a star guard who is averaging 16 points, 4 assits and 1.5 threes per game, with franchise star SG Kobe Bryant in the backcourt could be enough to lure another star to LA. Dealing Hill makes little-to-no impact for the Lakers, as this is a lost season and bringing Hill back this offseason likely isn’t a top priority. The second-round picks would hopefully mean next to nothing as well, as the Lakers hope to become competitive by luring free agents to Hollywood. Acquiring Dragic would help them do just that, and make them more competitive in the meantime.
Why the other team does it: Dragic has made it clear to the Suns that he will not re-sign after this season, causing them to make several phone calls, one of which presumably includes the Lakers. Getting a package like this as opposed to letting him walk for nothing makes plenty of sense, especially when it includes big man Jordan Hill. Hill is putting together a nice season, with averages of 12.5 points, 8 rebounds, and 1 block per game. He addresses a need in the Suns frontcourt, and the second-rounders certainly help in what could be a new youth movement in Phoenix.
State of the Franchise
Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $40.6 million
Background: In 2010, the Lakers got their revenge on their rival, the Boston Celtics, by beating them in a seven game NBA Finals series. Then, in 2012, they made a risky trade for C Dwight Howard, who was on the last year of his deal and had made no commitment to re-sign. They also signed veteran PG Steve Nash to complete their lineup of franchise SG Kobe Bryant, star PF Pau Gasol, Howard, and Nash himself. There were even talks of the team winning the title that year, but things didn't turn out as expected. All of their stars were constantly battling injuries and old age, except for Howard, and they barely got into the playoffs, sneaking in as the 7th seed. Their title hopes were destroyed when they were swept in the first round by the San Antonio Spurs. Then, they took a major blow when Howard left for Houston in free agency the following year. Pau Gasol left for Chicago this past season and is having a career year at 34 years old with the Bulls this year. Nash and Kobe are still around but are battling their respective injuries as well as father time. After missing out on on big name free agents the past couple of years, the Lakers find themselves near the bottom of the Western Conference. After a disappointing season last year, the Lakers ended up with the 7th pick in the NBA Draft and selected Kentucky standout PF Julius Randle. This year, they took yet another devastating blow when Bryant, a future Hall of Famer, went down with a season ending injury for the second year in a row. However, that may be for the best, as this will improve the Lakers’ draft pick, as they were never a competitive team this season to begin with. Los Angeles looks to rebuild through the draft and free agency around the aging Bryant.
Current Financial State: Although they have a lot of money to spend, they are more restrained than they could have been. Two years ago, they handed Kobe a monstrous 2 year/$48 million extension, which won’t expire until 2016. Although he is perhaps the greatest Laker of all time, his old age and inability to stay healthy and productive have lowered his value. He probably could have taken a pay cut, which would have been best for the franchise. However, the deal has already been inked and they cannot change it now. His contract is the only major contract that stays on the books beyond this upcoming offseason. PG’s Jeremy Lin and Steve Nash's respective $15 million and $9 million contracts expire this year, giving the Lakers a lot of money to spend for yet another offseason. With a lot of cap space available and a stacked free agent class next year, as well as Kobe's coming contract off the books, the Lakers will be looking to add a quality player to help attract a superstar next offseason.
Targets: Although there a lot of stars in this year's free agent class, many of them are unlikely to change teams. A couple of stars that could be on the move are C Marc Gasol (MEM) and PG Rajon Rondo (DAL). Although both are quite satisfied with their current teams, money might be enough to lure them away from their respective homes. The Lakers must hand Gasol a max contract, which could be worth upwards of $80 million over 4 years, if they want any hope of prying him from Memphis. Rondo is worth around 3 years/$45 million, but he might need an overpay incentive as well if the Lakers want to get him, perhaps maybe an extra year with the same annual value. Just to be clear, although the Lakers will target both, they are only going to sign one of them. By only adding one of them, they should not have to worry about going above the luxury tax line and can become more successful next year, thereby increasing their chances of signing a big name free agent in 2016, namely superstar SF/PF Kevin Durant (OKC).
The Fit: The Lakers don't really have many restrictions on their targets this season. The only main issues are that they cannot be a SG, Kobe's natural position, and that they have to be All Star caliber players. Rondo and Gasol fit both these qualifications, but they fit in other ways, too. Rondo is a crafty pass-first PG who can run the offense for the extremely offensively talented Kobe. His defensive abilities can also take some weight off of Bryant’s shoulders, as Rondo can guard the opposing team's best guard. Gasol fits in well because he’s a scorer and he can take some of the heavy scoring load off Kobe. He is also an excellent post defender and rim protector and complements the offensively-minded Julius Randle nicely. The Lakers would be satisfied with either one of these extremely talented players. They are hoping that money will be enough to get one of them, as then they can sign a superstar in the loaded 2016 free agent class and go for Kobe’s sixth title.
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