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houston rockets

Season Predictions 2016

Current seeding: 7th
Projected seeding: 6th
 
Arguably the biggest disappointment of this season, Houston finds themselves fighting for a back-end playoff spot after many (including yours truly) pegged them as title contenders before the season began. However, despite the fact that there is more than enough blame to go around, much of it can be fairly attributed towards Ty Lawson (PG, IND), who has since been released after his disastrous stint with the Rockets. And contrary to popular belief, superstar SG James Harden, as well as star C Dwight Howard and key SF Trevor Ariza, have all actually been having okay seasons for their respective standards. What the issue has been, rather, in addition to Lawson of course, is a supporting cast that is just not performing: the Rocket second-unit ranks third to last in bench efficiency. That’s gotta change, because Harden clearly cannot do it all on his own -- just check the standings for proof.
 
First round: Oklahoma City Thunder (3)
 
This one should be fun: Harden vs. his former team. Except that’s the problem -- it’s almost as if it’s Harden and a few other guys versus the entire Thunder squad. As I said above, the Rockets have just not been able to get the bench support around Harden and the other starters, while OKC has nearly a perfect supporting cast around superstars PG Russell Westbrook and SF/PF Kevin Durant. Even if Houston can somehow manage to stay afloat when the starters are on the floor -- Ariza containing KD, Harden catching fire, Howard dominating Thunder bigs PF/C Serge Ibaka and C Enes Kanter, whatever it may be -- they’ll get killed in the second unit, night-in and night-out in this series. Plus, you know, Westbrook and Durant are pretty good.
 
Prediction: Oklahoma City wins, 4-1

Trade Grades

Click here for link to Philadelphia 76ers Trade Grades

76ers get: 
C Joel Anthony, 2017 second-rounder
Rockets get: Rights to Chukwudiebere Maduabum

Having trouble with this one. On the surface, it looks like your average salary dump: "here, take this bad contract and I'll give you a draft pick for doing so". One problem: where's the bad contract? Anthony was on an expiring $2.5 million deal, thus was giving them no future financial problems. They basically just gave up a second-rounder for free. Talk about a head-scratcher...

Grade: C-

Trade Grades

Click here for link to Detroit Pistons Trade Grades

​Pistons get: 
PF Donatas Motiejunas, SG Marcus Thornton
​Rockets get: 
C Joel Anthony, protected 2016 first-round pick (top 8 protected this year, top 10 the following two years)

Welp, even with C Dwight Howard and PG Ty Lawson still in town, it's clear that Houston has absolutely no ambitions of winning this season. The disaster of a season having left them at 27-28 and 9th in the West, as well as this current trading away of key role players, are clear evidence of that assumption. Anthony holds little to no value, having averaged just 0.7 points in 4 minutes per game thus far this season.

Thornton has always played an important role in Houston as Harden's backup. The shooting guard is a great second-unit gunner that has been putting up 10 points and 1.6 threes per game this season. Motiejunas holds great potential as a two-way force at power forward, averaging 12 points and 5.9 rebounds last season. But he has regressed greatly this season due to persistent back injuries and will need to be paid mightily this offseason.

Thus this trade makes sense, as the Rockets have no present to play for anyways, thus the key is that they didn't exactly mortgage their future in this trade. And in fact, they did the opposite, because that first-round pick is almost guaranteed to change into theirhands this summer. GM Daryl Morey fixed the mistake (and my mistake as well, admittedly) of the Ty Lawson deal, and then some.

Grade: A

Power Rankings​


Overall Rank: 5th
Tier: Title Contenders
Projected Seeding: 4th in West

The Rockets have to be considered to have as good of a shot as anyone to win it all this year. After dealing spare parts and a first-rounder to Denver for star PG Ty Lawson, Houston indeed has a very complete roster. It features MVP-runner-up SG James Harden, fellow superstar C Dwight Howard, “three-and-D” stud SF Trevor Ariza, and likely Terrence Jones at PF. Their bench is also elite, and there are really no holes up and down the roster. The only things holding the Rockets back are the impossibly tough Southwest division and the also-impossibly-tough Western Conference. However, as long as Howard stays healthy and Harden continues to perform like a top-5 player in the league, Houston will be firmly entrenched in the upper echelon of title contenders, with as good of a shot as anyone in the definitive top six.

Trade Grades

Click here for link to Denver Nuggets Trade Grades 

Nuggets get: SF/PF Kostas Papanikolaou, SG/PG Nick Johnson, PG Pablo Prigioni, C/PF Joey Dorsey, 2016 first round pick from Houston (lottery protected)
Rockets get: PG Ty Lawson

With Lawson’s trade value and Denver’s leverage in trade negotiations at an all-time low due to many factors, such as the point guard recently picking up his fourth DUI, GM Daryl Morey and Co. pounced at the opportunity to buy low. They had the cap space to take on Lawson’s reasonable 2 year/$25.6 million contract, and were due for an upgrade over ex-starter PG Patrick Beverley. Lawson is that upgrade and then some, as he put up 15.2 points and 9.6 assists per game on an underachieving Denver team last season. In addition, he ranked seventh amongst all players in points produced via either scoring or assists last season. SEVENTH! Spare role players and a late first-rounder are well worth the cost of giving Houston as good of a shot as anyone to win it all.

Grade: A+


Best/Worst Draft Scenarios

(#18 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Flipping the pick for PG/SG Ty Lawson (DEN)

The Rockets are title contenders -- that much is obvious. Having superstars SG James Harden and C Dwight Howard on your team will get you that, although to be a title winner they’re going to need better pieces surrounding their duo -- particularly at point guard. That should not come in the form of a PG Jerian Grant, or even a PG Cameron Payne, as neither can provide immediate impact in the way that Lawson can. One of the most underrated players in basketball, Lawson is an excellent distributor, can create his own shot when necessary, and is a solid defender as well. He averaged 15.2 points, 9.6 assists, and shot over 34% from three last season. The Nuggets, Lawson’s team, are looking to ship off their veterans in exchange for younger assets (like another draft pick), and he could be next on the chopping block. The Rockets might need to add a little more than their first-rounder, perhaps PF Terrence Jones or a second-rounder or two, but acquiring Lawson would make Houston instant title favorites.

Worst Case Scenario: Executing the fallback plan

Hardly a “worst case scenario”, Houston will simply execute the fallback plan: should they not find a taker for their pick and talented PG Cameron Payne (Murray State, Sophomore) doesn’t fall all the way to number 18, the Rockets will simply select PG/SG Jerian Grant out of Notre Dame. The past two seasons, Grant averaged a ridiculous 17.8 points, 6.4 assists, and 1.9 steals per game, all while shooting with very high levels of efficiency: over 36% from beyond the arc and 50% overall. He is extremely NBA-ready, takes care of the ball well (2 turnovers a game), and most importantly: is a fantastic playmaker and can also manage the pick-and-roll. The former’s importance is obvious: the Rockets need a playmaker that can facilitate the ball to it’s stars, Harden and Howard. The latter, pick-and-roll skills, is key as well, as Grant and Howard could become a lethal duo in this all-too-common play when Harden needs a break on offense. All in all, Grant is a perfect fit for Houston.



Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams


My original pick to win the finals, Houston is already looking in solid shape to prove me right. Superstar SG James Harden could probably single-handedly carry this team, but the fact that two-way force C Dwight Howard is finally healthy obviously doesn’t hurt either. Add in a deep bench and some nice complementary pieces, such as SF Trevor Ariza and PF/SF Josh Smith, and you have a title team. The road is hard, yes, but Harden is perhaps the best player in basketball, and couldn't be surrounded by players that better fit his talents. If everything is clicking and the offense runs smoothly through Harden, and if Howard is able to anchor the defense nicely, a title is well within reach for the Rockets.

Draft Targets


Pick #14 (via New Orleans Pelicans): Kris Dunn, Point Guard, Providence

With depth at every position, the Rockets should look to simply add insurance behind their weakest one at point guard, especially considering PG Patrick Beverley’s impending free agency. Dunn is one of the more versatile players in the country, with ridiculous averages of 16 points, 7.5 assists, 5.5 rebounds, and 3 steals, all while hitting 48% of his shots as well as 35% from beyond the arc. Though he does turn the ball over a lot (4 times per game), Dunn’s quickness and handles are second to none in this draft class. He can run the second unit in Houston, or even step up and play as a complementary piece to superstars SG James Harden and C Dwight Howard in the starting lineup. An exciting player to watch, that’s for sure.

Season Predictions

Regular Season: Led by MVP-frontrunner superstar SG James Harden and a flurry of excellent defenders and a revamped bench, one can almost forget that superstar C Dwight Howard is still injured. Harden has more than made up for this and kept the Rockets in position to get home-court advantage in the playoffs, while numerous acquisitions have helped as well. One can only imagine how dangerous a team this will be with Harden and Howard fully healthy and supported by this core in the playoffs.

Projected Record: 55-27

Playoffs Round One
Houston Rockets (#3) vs. Dallas Mavericks (#6)

The Rockets’ plan for winning games in the playoffs is as follows:
  1. Play good defense and rebound well
  2. Get good bench production
  3. Don’t let Harden get doubled
  4. Pass the ball to Harden
  5. Get out of the way
That’s it. Let Harden be Harden, and this strategy more than works with this core, as they have a great second-unit thanks to GM Daryl Morey, great defenders and no double-team-enablers that could slow Harden down. Of course, the pick and roll with Dwight Howard will also be used a lot, but I’ve pretty much forgotten just how good that really is with Howard being out and Harden taking the league by storm. The Mavericks are a good team with an impressive starting five, but lack of team chemistry as well as depth are two serious knocks on them. There’s no reason the “Give-it-to-Harden-and-get-out-of-the-way” plan won’t work here.

Series Prediction: Houston wins 4-2

Playoffs Round Two
Memphis Grizzlies (#2) vs. Houston Rockets (#3)

The “Harden Plan” (I shortened it) should be on full display here. Howard’s efforts will be put towards guarding superstar C Marc Gasol as well as battling for control of the paint, and Houston’s PF Josh Smith/PF Terrence Jones/PF Donatas Motiejunas should be doing the same against PF Zach Randolph and off of the bench. Beverley will do his best against star PG Mike Conley, which is pretty darn good, and SF Trevor Ariza should have no problem holding down SF Jeff Green. It’s all there for Harden to take control, and although SG Tony Allen is a great defender, nobody is stopping The Beard.

Series Prediction: Houston wins 4-3

Playoffs Round Three (Conference Finals)
Houston Rockets (#3) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (#8)

Another prime example of the “Harden Plan” against his former team. The Thunder boast Harden’s ex-teammates, superstars PG/SG Russell Westbrook and SF/PF Kevin Durant as well as star PF/C Serge Ibaka, but Houston’s defense will take care of that. Ariza and Beverley should be able to at the very least contain Westbrook and Durant somewhat. This is because both could give the superstars headaches as Beverley is known to be an annoying and pesky defender and Ariza’s length is that of Durant’s, so Durant won’t be able to utilize his superior wingspan, something he loves doing. Controlling the paint shouldn’t be an issue for Houston’s deep frontcourt rotation lead by Howard, and as these teams’ benches pretty much cancel out, this just makes it all too easy for James Harden to go to work and take over. Fear the Beard.


Series Prediction: Houston wins 4-3

Playoffs Round Four (Finals)
Atlanta Hawks (#1) vs. Houston Rockets (#3)

This is where the “Harden Plan” might not work so well. The Hawks boast five, yes five, All-Stars (including their coach) as well as a starting lineup of PG Jeff Teague, SG Kyle Korver, SF DeMarre Carroll, PF Paul Millsap, and C Al Horford. No true superstar, yet outstanding depth, great head-coaching, fantastic chemistry, and beautiful ball-movement have propelled the Hawks this far. Unlike other teams, you can’t just simply key in on a couple of guys, because each and every one of these players can make you pay for leaving them unguarded for even a split second. However, the Rockets don’t need to. Since they have excellent defenders up and down their lineup, they should be able to just try and guard everyone without the need to double. Their bench is at least as good as the Hawks, and Houston should be able to control the paint as they do in most of these series’, as Atlanta lacks both a true rim protector and is actually a sub-par rebounding team. With this in mind, even with a defensive specialist like Carroll guarding him, this series is all about The Beard, though it’s Josh Smith’s turn to get revenge on his former team. Even though the “Harden Plan” might be a little more difficult to execute against this Hawks team and on the biggest stage in basketball, you just know he will deliver.

Series Prediction: Houston wins 4-3
Finals MVP: SG James Harden


Trade Grades

Rockets get: SG/SF K.J McDaniels
76ers get: PG Isaiah Canaan and second-rounder

This is an outright steal for a player of McDaniels’ caliber. The rookie does it all, averaging 9 points, 4 rebounds, 1.5 blocks, 1 steal, and 1 three per game. Becoming a sort of Nicolas Batum or Draymond Green is this kid’s FLOOR, so you can only imagine how high is ceiling must be by default. Although he will be playing behind superstar SG James Harden, there is no doubt that McDaniels will carve out a significant role for himself in Houston. Canaan is averaging 6 points and 1.5 threes a game, but is also chipping in just 1 assist in only 15 minutes per contest. After the acquisition of PG Pablo Prigioni from New York, Canaan was made expendable and so is the second-rounder, which isn’t a big deal to a team chasing the title. Philadelphia made a good move with McGee, and now makes a bad move to even it out. In turn, Houston made a bad move with Prigioni, and now makes a good one to compensate. Funny how that works.

Grade: A-

Trade Grades

Rockets get: PG Pablo Prigioni
Knicks get: SG/PG Alexey Shved, two second-rounders

I get the need to upgrade at point guard, I really do. In fact I agree with it, as it’s hard to imagine PG Patrick Beverley being the starter for a championship team. But let’s just take a look at some of the other floor generals traded this year: Rajon Rondo (DAL), Mo Williams (CHA), Goran Dragic (MIA), Reggie Jackson (DET), Isaiah Thomas (BOS), Michael Carter-Williams (MIL), Brandon Knight (PHO), and more. I could go on, with the likes of Norris Cole (NO) and D.J Augustin (OKC) also on the move, but you get my point. How is it, that with valuable assets like young PF Terrence Jones, New Orleans’ first-rounder this year, and more, that GM Daryl Morey ends up with PABLO PRIGIONI? No disrespect to Prigioni, who is a serviceable backup point guard averaging 4.5 points, 2.5 assists, and 1 three per game, but he just doesn’t compare to those star point guards listed above. It’s a head-scratcher, especially when you consider Houston coughed up two second-rounders and a role player in Shved for the 37 year old.

Grade: C

One Trade That Every Team Should Do

Houston gets: PG/SG Goran Dragic, C Miles Plumlee
Pheonix gets: C Brook Lopez, Brooklyn's 2016 second-rounder
Brooklyn gets: SG Jason Terry, PF Terrence Jones, PF/C Brandan Wright, New Orleans' 2015 first-rounder

(via Houston)

Finances: Dragic is on an expiring deal, though technically he has a $7.5 million player option, and for someone of Dragic's caliber, that's going to be treated as an expiring deal. After Dragic declines his player option, Houston can only hope he wants to re-sign, though there is a good chance of that, which would cost them about $12-13 million a year. Lopez is on a pricey 2 year/$31.5 million deal, and Terry and Wright are on expiring contracts worth $6 and $5 million, respectively. PF Terrence Jones has potential, and is still on his rookie deal with about 2 years/$4 million remaining, an absolute steal. Plumlee is still on his rookie deal too, but it's only looking like a minor steal as he delivers a relatively disappointing season. Houston finds a cap-friendly solution to their hole at point guard in this trade.

The Fit: Though the Rockets give up their two main assets: Jones and the New Orleans first-rounder, they get exactly what they wanted for them: a star point guard. Dragic is one of the better floor generals in the whole league, as he's averaging 16 points, 4 assists, 4 rebounds, 1.5 threes, and 1 steal a game, all while making half his shots. He turned in even better numbers last year, and a lineup of him, superstar SG James Harden, SF Trevor Ariza, PF Josh Smith, and superstar C Dwight Howard could become instant favorites to win a title. In addition, the Rockets also get Plumlee in this deal, who's a center full of upside that can also get them through Howard's latest injury. Averaging 4 points on 55% shooting, as well as 5 rebounds and a block in just 18.5 minutes per game, Plumlee can do just that. By pulling the trigger on this trade, Houston could make themselves instant favorites to win the title.

Why the other teams do it: For Brooklyn, this is the package of all packages for Lopez. No long-term money taken back, and they get two assets to help their future in the young, defensive stud Jones and New Orleans' pick. For a team with little interest of winning right away, this is a trade they can only dream of most of the time. For Pheonix, this is also a good deal. Dragic probably won't re-sign anyways, so getting this much value out of him and the disgruntled Plumlee is awesome. That value comes in the form of the future second-rounder, but mainly from star C Brook Lopez. A big body that can score down-low has been on the Suns' wish list for awhile now, and Lopez offers exactly that, averaging 15.5 points while making half his shots, as well as 81% from the charity stripe. He can also anchor a defense, as evidenced by his 1.7 blocks a game, though his rebounding leaves a lot to be desired, as 6 per contest just doesn't cut it for a 7 footer. This can be easily made up for by other big men in Pheonix's frontcourt, namely the emerging C/PF Alex Len. Though Lopez's deal is a little pricey, it isn't so bad and it expires quickly. Either way, getting a player of Lopez's caliber for assets that don't have a lot of value to Pheonix has to be considered a win.

State of the Franchise

Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $17.8 million

Background: It all started when Houston finalized the trade for then SG James Harden with the Oklahoma City Thunder. Harden had just come off a phenomenal year off the bench for the Thunder, going on to win the Sixth Man of the Year award. Houston landed the superstar in exchange for SG Kevin Martin, rookie SG Jeremy Lamb and a few draft picks. Then, in 2013, General Manager Daryl Morey managed to lure superstar C Dwight Howard away from the Los Angeles Lakers. This past offseason, they tried to make another splash in free agency. They traded the hefty expiring contracts of PG Jeremy Lin and C Omer Asik, and chose not to match an offer sheet from the Dallas Mavericks for restricted free agent SF Chandler Parsons. After initially missing out on SF Carmelo Anthony (NYK), Houston had a great chance to sign star big man Chris Bosh (MIA). They offered him a 4 year/$88 million max deal, but he chose to stay in Miami. After that horrible miss, Morey tried to salvage the offseason by signing SF Trevor Ariza to a 4 year/$32 million deal. Lin and Asik were replaced by young defensive studs PG Patrick Beverley and PF Terrence Jones, respectively. Houston is currently a major title contender in the Western Conference, and looks to bring home the Larry O’Brien trophy for the first time since Hall of Fame C Hakeem Olajuwon did so in 1994.

Current Financial State: With Harden and Howard being the only major financial commitments, the Rockets are in a good state financially. Although they are currently at $74 million, dangerously close to the luxury tax line, they are shedding about $15 million this offseason in the expiring contracts of veterans SG Jason Terry and the amnesty of PF Luis Scola (IND). Although Ariza is being paid a little more than the team would like, Beverley and Jones are still on their cheap rookie deals. With only $59 million on the books for next season, Houston is in shape to make another big splash in free agency.

Targets: With money to spend, Daryl Morey will look to add another star to his already impressive duo of Harden and Howard.  One star they are likely to target is PG Rajon Rondo. His current team, the Dallas Mavericks, are in a good situation right now, so Morey has to hope his young, competitive team will be enough to attract Rondo to Houston. The Rockets will need to go a couple million dollars over the luxury tax to be able to sign Rondo while retaining PF Josh Smith in free agency, but owner Leslie Alexander should be willing to pay up for this championship caliber team. They would have to decline PF Kosta Papanikolaou's $5 million team option to be able to sign Rondo to a reasonable 4 year/$60 million deal and Josh Smith to a contract worth roughly $5 million per year. A starting five of Rondo, Harden, Ariza, Smith, and Howard could make Houston instant favorites for the title.

The Fit: Rondo meshes really well with Houston's roster. His defensive abilities can be used to cover for Harden's apparent deficiency on that side of the ball. Rondo's ball-handling skills along with his playmaking ability and craftiness could really boost the already explosive Houston offense. Rondo's fit is undeniable and Houston should definitely pursue him.

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