Season Predictions 2016
Current seeding: 1st
Projected seeding: 1st
History unfolding before your very eyes. As the season winds down, it actually seems more and more feasible that the Warriors may actually break Michael Jordan’s 1995-96 Chicago Bulls’ regular-season record of 72-10. Either way, superstar Pg Stephen Curry has been absolutely unbelievable – and fellow stars PF/SF Draymond Green and SG Klay Thompson are not too far behind. What Head Coach Steve Kerr often likes to do is employ the starting five that I call the Suicide Squad (shout-out to DC for what looks like an excellent movie): the aforementioned trio, plus reigning Finals MVP SF Andre Iguodala and three-point marksman SF/PF Harrison Barnes; the 6’7” Draymond plays center in this lineup. Centers Andrew Bogut and Festus Ezeli still get their fair share of playing time, as does the rest of this elite bench.
“But can they beat the ’95-96 Bulls?”
First round: Dallas Mavericks (8)
The only way a team would theoretically have a chance against Golden State is if they were to slow down the superstar backcourt of Curry and Klay, and the Mavericks don’t even appear to have any quality perimeter defenders at all. That alone means Golden State will be averaging 100+ points per game in this series, and the fact that Draymond Green, probably the best defender in the league, can guard either of Dallas’ top two scorers – SF Chandler Parsons or PF Dirk Nowitzki -- means that the Mavs will have a tough time on offense too. The Warriors also have an advantage in bench play, rebounding, turnover ratio… I could go on.
Prediction: Golden State wins, 4-0
Second round: Golden State Warriors (1)
Any time any team is taking on Golden State, the very first question will always be the same: “What can that team possibly do to slow down Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson?” LA has a better answer to that than most. While nobody can actually slow down the unstoppable Steph Curry, Clippers superstar PG Chris Paul may just be the most qualified point guard in the league for the job, as he can hang with Curry on both ends of the court. Containing Klay is a less impossible -- but still very difficult -- task, and the Clippers can run out of capable wing defenders very quickly. Even though LA has star C DeAndre Jordan to hold down the paint and limit some of the guards’ drives, you can expect Curry and Thompson to have a combined average of about 50 points per game in this series.
Thus getting something going on offense will be paramount for LA, and they should have superstar PF Blake Griffin back by this point. He’ll have to be guarded by Draymond, however, who is always tough to score on. The LA offense starts and ends with Chris Paul, relying on him not just for his 20 points per game, but for his 10 assists per game: setting up the offense as a whole. Wingmen like Redick, Crawford, and Green will have to provide a key scoring punch, as will the Clipper bench if it hopes to hang in with Golden State’s elite second-unit.
In all, this should be a very fun, exciting, and high-scoring series between Pacific Division rivals. One of the main factors that I think the matchup will really come down to is rebounds -- simply who will have more possessions in this game, who will get more shots up. Golden State ranks 9th in rebound rate. The Clippers? Second to last.
Prediction: Golden State wins, 4-3
Third round (Western Conference Finals): San Antonio Spurs (2)
This one should be great: probably the two best teams in all of basketball (sorry Cavs, Thunder) going at it. Golden State has been unstoppable this year, thanks of course to their superstar backcourt duo of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, and the versatile beast PF/SF Draymond Green. These two teams each rank at or near the top of the lists in nearly every category: rebounds, threes, defensive efficiency, you name it; thus this matchup cannot be decided abstractly, rather, you have to analyze the matchup.
An area where San Antonio should have an edge is inside -- despite the presence of Green and Warriors C Andrew Bogut, the frontcourt trio of Leonard, Aldridge and Duncan, plus guys like PF David West behind them, should get the Spurs plenty of points in the paint. Thus an x-factor in this series could be a guy like Bogut or C Festus Ezeli for Golden State, as Green cannot do all of the interior defending on his own.
In the backcourt, however, it is clearly advantage Warriors. Not only do Curry and Thompson average a combined 52.3 points and 8.4 threes per game, but the depth behind them and around them is also superb. What I imagine Popovich might do quite often is shift Leonard onto Curry, do lots of switches off of screens, and play help defense in order to attempt some sort of a collective effort against Curry and Thompson. To what extent such a strategy might work remains to be seen.
All in all, I think this could be a lower-scoring series than a lot of people might think, as Leonard and Green are likely the two very best defenders in basketball and will guard the opposing team’s top scorer. The bench play could also be a decisive factor, but again: these two teams have the very best benches in the league, and it will likely be a wash as well. Ultimately, however, I’m just skeptical as to whether or not Golden State can get much offense going outside of Curry and Thompson, while San Antonio has a variety of players who can put the ball in the basket. Gut call.
Prediction: San Antonio wins, 4-3
Power Rankings
Overall Rank: 2nd
Tier: Title Contenders
Projected Seeding: 2nd in West
Golden State will enter the season with almost the exact same team as last year. And considering that team won a dominant 67 regular season games en route to their first title in 40 years, the fact that their roster resembles last season’s one is a good thing. Most notably, Defensive Player of the Year runner-up star SF/PF Draymond Green was retained on a 5 year/$82 million deal. MVP PG Stephen Curry and star SG/SF Klay Thompson still form the league’s top backcourt duo, the Warriors’ bench is still among the best in the league, C Andrew Bogut still protects the team's’ basket, and Finals MVP SF/SG Andre Iguodala still locks down the perimeter. The only notable absence is that of PF/C David Lee, but PF/C Jason Thompson, Lee’s replacement, is essentially just cheaper version of him. Expect the Warriors to once again be one of the best, if not the best, team in the league. They’ll also be in the thick of title contention talk this season as the ‘Dubs look to repeat as champs.
Best/Worst Draft Scenarios
(#30 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Drafting PF/C Rakeem Christmas (Syracuse, Senior)
I’m higher on Christmas than most, as he’s generally pegged as a late first-rounder or early-second rounder, but I think that the Warriors would get excellent value for him here with the last pick in the first round. His averages in the tough ACC were astounding: 17.5 points, 9 rebounds, 2.5 blocks, and 1 steal per game on an efficient 55.2% shooting, while not having any major issues at the line (71.2%). Christmas boasts elite length (7’3” wingspan) and athleticism, which help him in becoming an outstanding defender, being very quick off his feet to contest shots. However, he does struggle with stronger centers in the post and will need to transition from the zone defense he played at Syracuse to the man-to-man defense in the NBA, but both of those are addressable issues, the former with bulking up and the latter simply with experience. He also puts his length and athleticism to use in rebounding, though that’s also a double-edged sword: there is potential for him to be great at grabbing boards, but both the effort and timing of his jumps are questionable, yet those issues can also be overcame. The lack of effort in his rebounds are also reflected in his motor, which he lacks, but that can be offset by his mobility and speed for his position. Still, if he wants to make these physical gifts a plus rather than to just offset a negative, he will need to fully commit himself and play 110% at all times. His offensive game, the jump-shot in particular, needs work, but he has steadily improved and features an incomplete yet rapidly growing post game. Above all, he’s 23 years old, making his upside and ability to develop that much smaller, as he’s a few years older than most other prospects. Still, he’s that much more of a complete player, or at the very least his issues are fixable, as the natural gifts (wingspan, athleticism) are all there. For a Warriors team fresh off the title that could still use an extra big body down low that can contribute right away, Christmas is the optimal fit.
Worst Case Scenario: None, Christmas will be available
It’s really just as simple as that. The Warriors will (or at least should) be targeting Christmas, and they will get him. It’s extremely unlikely that Christmas gets taken before #30, as most teams this late will go for long-term potential over the ability to contribute right away. Not the end of the world if he somehow isn’t available, but I’d say there’s at least a 75% chance that he is. End of story.
Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams
Golden State just needs to keep doing what they’re doing. The superstar duo of PG/SG Stephen Curry and SG/SF Klay Thompson just need to keep lighting it up from deep, and those two alone could probably get the Warriors out of the first round. For the regular season success to legitimately carry over, however, defensive studs like SF/PF Draymond Green and C Andrew Bogut are going to need to do a lot of the heavy lifting on the less-glamorous end of the court, while Golden State’s deep bench must continue to produce at a high level. In the end, it really comes down to how far Curry and Thompson can take them. And as long as there’s production elsewhere, that’s all the way.
Draft Targets
Pick #30: Cliff Alexander, Power Forward, Kansas
Though not eligible to play in the tournament, Alexander should still be a late first round selection, and is the best big man available for the Warriors, who would presumably like to draft one. Though not very skilled, Alexander boasts a 7’3” wingspan and great athleticism. He’s averaging 7 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks on an efficient 56.5% from the field – nothing special, but solid numbers nonetheless for the freshman. He can rebound and defend, and that’s pretty much all the Warriors will ask of him, as he will be in a limited role and simply providing insurance behind the injury-prone duo of PF/C David Lee and C Andrew Bogut. Still, being drafted to a title favorite has to make the kid smile.
Season Predictions
Regular Season: The Warriors have absolutely crushed their competition in their conference, much like the Hawks. However, they’ve done so while playing in the Western Conference, the tougher of the two conferences by far, though not to quite the same extent that Atlanta has done so. Led by “The Splash Brothers” in superstar PG/SG Stephen Curry and SG/SF Klay Thompson, as well as the extremely versatile SF/PF Draymond Green and a flurry of others who have stepped up, the Warriors have looked absolutely unstoppable this season. It’s possible they actually get within a few games of the all-time regular season record of 70-12, set by the 1995-1996 Chicago Bulls led by none other than SG Michael Jordan himself, but also like the Hawks, the Warriors would be wise to rest their starters down the stretch in order to keep them fresh for the playoffs. That doesn’t mean the best of the West isn’t going to capture the league’s best record, however.
Projected Record: 62-20
Playoffs Round One
Golden State Warriors (#1) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (#8)
This is where my problems start with the Warriors: the playoffs. There is no denying they’ve been a dominant team throughout the regular season, but I don’t see the playoff experience on this roster. Curry and Thompson are obviously very talented players and are unstoppable from beyond the arc, but do they know how to get it done in the postseason, with a total of one playoff win between the two? Young breakout forwards SF/PF Harrison Barnes and Green also both share that one playoff win that The Splash Brothers also do. Even less-often used veterans PF/C David Lee, C Andrew Bogut, SF/SG Andre Iguodala, and more haven’t even been there and done that, as each has a couple of playoff wins but no titles or really anything particularly close to one. The Thunder, on the other hand, are the complete package for a team that you would think to win the title. Don’t let their #8 seed fool you, as this was mainly due to injuries to reigning MVP superstar SF/PF Kevin Durant and an MVP-frontrunner in superstar PG/SG Russell Westbrook. They should be at full health by the time the playoffs come around, and also boasting elite defender star PF/C Serge Ibaka and a revamped bench from trade acquisitions this season. The Warrior’s depth will be cancelled out by the Thunder’s abundance of it as well, and then it comes down to team chemistry, playoff experience, and stars. The first one is a relative tie, but Oklahoma City probably wins the other two as they boast arguably two of the five best players in the league. This Warriors team is built for regular season success, but I’m not so sure about the playoffs, especially when they have to play a title contender like the Thunder in the first round.
Series Prediction: Oklahoma City wins 4-3
One Trade That Every Team Should Do
Golden State gets: PF Kostas Papanikolaou, PG Isaiah Canaan, New York's 2015 second-rounder (via Houston)
Houston gets: PG Shaun Livingston, Golden State's 2015 first-rounder
Finances: This one is all about clearing cap for Golden State. Livingston has a $5.5 million annual contract, which leads into next season, and that's something that the Warriors just cannot afford if they want to keep SF/PF Draymond Green in free agency. Papanikolaou and Canaan have team options of $4 million and $1 million respectively, which would be declined in order to keep the Warriors under the second luxury tax. Swapping their first rounder for the Knicks' second-rounder, though it looks bad, probably will change next to nothing as those picks will likely be back-to-back anyways. If Golden State wants to keep their core, they've got to get rid of Livingston.
The Fit: Though Papanikolaou and Canaan are merely cap fillers, they may actually play critical roles as the Warriors look to go all the way this year. Canaan and PG Justin Holiday will fight for backup minutes behind superstar PG Stephen Curry, as Livingston would be gone. Papanikolaou could compete for minutes up front, as Golden State's frontcourt is notoriously thin and injury-prone, their main weakness this season. Should Curry go down with another ankle injury, or one of the big men go down with an injury of their own, Canaan and Papanikolaou would be ready to step up, though likely not beyond this season (see above).
Why the other team does it: For Houston, this would sort of be a last-resort move. If GM Daryl Morey is unable to land PG Goran Dragic via a trade and doesn't think he will be able to sign either him or PG Rajon Rondo in free agency to address the Rockets' need for a floor general, Livingston could be the best available point guard. It's not a bad trade either, as Houston gets a small upgrade by flipping the Knicks' second-rounder for Golden State's first, and Canaan and Papanikolaou were just little-used role players anyways. Livingston, though his $5.5 million contract leading into next year prevents Houston from signing a Dragic or a Rondo, is averaging 5 points on 51% shooting, 3 assists and a steal in just 17 minutes a game. He is a fantastic defender, though has a less than desirable shot, which is pretty much exactly what current PG Patrick Beverley brings to the table. By having two point guards with similar play styles, it allows the rest of the team to not have to adjust each time the other one is subbed in. Though the finances hurt, Houston has to like the draft pick upgrade, and could really use Livingston to help push for the title.
State of the Franchise
Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): -$2 million
Background: General Manager Bob Myers has built a very talented squad around a young, flashy backcourt of superstar PG Stephen Curry and star SG Klay Thompson. The rest of the starting lineup is rounded out by SF/SG Andre Iguodala SF/PF Draymond Green, and C Andrew Bogut. After trading G Monta Ellis for Bogut in 2012 and their more recent signing of Iguodala, the Warriors have been a competitive playoff team. However, injuries and lack of bench production have kept them from going deep in the championship hunt in the past couple of years. With the emergence of young forwards SF/PF Harrison Barnes and Green, as well as the addition of PG Shaun Livingston, Golden State now boasts the best record in the entire NBA. Even after passing on trading for All-Star PF Kevin Love (CLE) in favor of keeping Thompson, Golden State is in prime form and on track to win a title soon.
Current Financial State: At $73 million, the team is barely below the luxury tax line, even with Curry's $8 million annual salary, which is probably the best deal in the league. However, due to Klay Thompson's recently signed extension, they are projected to be at $78 million next year, which is $1 million above the luxury tax. They would also like to retain Draymond Green, who is going to be a free agent this year. Most of their money is currently tied up in the bad contracts of Iguodala, PF/C David Lee, and Bogut. They are each being paid about $12 million per year and the earliest contract expires after the 2015-16 season. Golden State is a potential championship team so they cannot afford to break up their core of Curry, Thompson, Iguodala, Lee, Bogut, and Green. In order to compete for a title, however, owner Joe Lacob must be willing to pay the luxury tax, which means accepting PF Marreese Speights' $4 million team option. However, even if Lacob pays the luxury tax, Golden State still must turn to the trade market in order to save enough cap space to re-sign Green and keep them under the second threshold of the luxury tax.
Targets: Golden State is looking for a trade partner to unload some bench players for expiring contracts. A likely candidate to be traded is PG Shaun Livingston. Livingston is currently being paid $5 million a year and trading him could help them dip lower in the luxury tax. A trade that could work would be Livingston for Houston's PF Kosta Papanikolaou, as well as backup PG Isaiah Canaan to play behind Curry in place of Livingston. Golden State would receive Papanikolaou and Canaan’s team options of $5 million and $1 million respectively, which they would decline for financial reasons. This would allow them to retain Draymond Green and the rest of their core players, while remaining in the first luxury tax threshold. Houston does this trade due to their depth at PF, highlighted by Terrence Jones and Josh Smith, and because of their need for a PG to back up current starter Patrick Beverley. The Warriors are unlikely to target anyone besides Green in free agency because they are restricted by the cap.
The Fit: Golden State pulls the trigger on this deal to relieve their cap situation. PG Justin Holiday and Canaan could split the backup minutes behind Curry at PG and Papanikolaou could help out the Warriors' thin, injury-prone frontcourt. Livingston is an upgrade for Houston over Canaan. Livingston meshes well with Houston because like Beverley, he is a pesky defender with a less than desirable shot.
Current seeding: 1st
Projected seeding: 1st
History unfolding before your very eyes. As the season winds down, it actually seems more and more feasible that the Warriors may actually break Michael Jordan’s 1995-96 Chicago Bulls’ regular-season record of 72-10. Either way, superstar Pg Stephen Curry has been absolutely unbelievable – and fellow stars PF/SF Draymond Green and SG Klay Thompson are not too far behind. What Head Coach Steve Kerr often likes to do is employ the starting five that I call the Suicide Squad (shout-out to DC for what looks like an excellent movie): the aforementioned trio, plus reigning Finals MVP SF Andre Iguodala and three-point marksman SF/PF Harrison Barnes; the 6’7” Draymond plays center in this lineup. Centers Andrew Bogut and Festus Ezeli still get their fair share of playing time, as does the rest of this elite bench.
“But can they beat the ’95-96 Bulls?”
First round: Dallas Mavericks (8)
The only way a team would theoretically have a chance against Golden State is if they were to slow down the superstar backcourt of Curry and Klay, and the Mavericks don’t even appear to have any quality perimeter defenders at all. That alone means Golden State will be averaging 100+ points per game in this series, and the fact that Draymond Green, probably the best defender in the league, can guard either of Dallas’ top two scorers – SF Chandler Parsons or PF Dirk Nowitzki -- means that the Mavs will have a tough time on offense too. The Warriors also have an advantage in bench play, rebounding, turnover ratio… I could go on.
Prediction: Golden State wins, 4-0
Second round: Golden State Warriors (1)
Any time any team is taking on Golden State, the very first question will always be the same: “What can that team possibly do to slow down Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson?” LA has a better answer to that than most. While nobody can actually slow down the unstoppable Steph Curry, Clippers superstar PG Chris Paul may just be the most qualified point guard in the league for the job, as he can hang with Curry on both ends of the court. Containing Klay is a less impossible -- but still very difficult -- task, and the Clippers can run out of capable wing defenders very quickly. Even though LA has star C DeAndre Jordan to hold down the paint and limit some of the guards’ drives, you can expect Curry and Thompson to have a combined average of about 50 points per game in this series.
Thus getting something going on offense will be paramount for LA, and they should have superstar PF Blake Griffin back by this point. He’ll have to be guarded by Draymond, however, who is always tough to score on. The LA offense starts and ends with Chris Paul, relying on him not just for his 20 points per game, but for his 10 assists per game: setting up the offense as a whole. Wingmen like Redick, Crawford, and Green will have to provide a key scoring punch, as will the Clipper bench if it hopes to hang in with Golden State’s elite second-unit.
In all, this should be a very fun, exciting, and high-scoring series between Pacific Division rivals. One of the main factors that I think the matchup will really come down to is rebounds -- simply who will have more possessions in this game, who will get more shots up. Golden State ranks 9th in rebound rate. The Clippers? Second to last.
Prediction: Golden State wins, 4-3
Third round (Western Conference Finals): San Antonio Spurs (2)
This one should be great: probably the two best teams in all of basketball (sorry Cavs, Thunder) going at it. Golden State has been unstoppable this year, thanks of course to their superstar backcourt duo of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, and the versatile beast PF/SF Draymond Green. These two teams each rank at or near the top of the lists in nearly every category: rebounds, threes, defensive efficiency, you name it; thus this matchup cannot be decided abstractly, rather, you have to analyze the matchup.
An area where San Antonio should have an edge is inside -- despite the presence of Green and Warriors C Andrew Bogut, the frontcourt trio of Leonard, Aldridge and Duncan, plus guys like PF David West behind them, should get the Spurs plenty of points in the paint. Thus an x-factor in this series could be a guy like Bogut or C Festus Ezeli for Golden State, as Green cannot do all of the interior defending on his own.
In the backcourt, however, it is clearly advantage Warriors. Not only do Curry and Thompson average a combined 52.3 points and 8.4 threes per game, but the depth behind them and around them is also superb. What I imagine Popovich might do quite often is shift Leonard onto Curry, do lots of switches off of screens, and play help defense in order to attempt some sort of a collective effort against Curry and Thompson. To what extent such a strategy might work remains to be seen.
All in all, I think this could be a lower-scoring series than a lot of people might think, as Leonard and Green are likely the two very best defenders in basketball and will guard the opposing team’s top scorer. The bench play could also be a decisive factor, but again: these two teams have the very best benches in the league, and it will likely be a wash as well. Ultimately, however, I’m just skeptical as to whether or not Golden State can get much offense going outside of Curry and Thompson, while San Antonio has a variety of players who can put the ball in the basket. Gut call.
Prediction: San Antonio wins, 4-3
Power Rankings
Overall Rank: 2nd
Tier: Title Contenders
Projected Seeding: 2nd in West
Golden State will enter the season with almost the exact same team as last year. And considering that team won a dominant 67 regular season games en route to their first title in 40 years, the fact that their roster resembles last season’s one is a good thing. Most notably, Defensive Player of the Year runner-up star SF/PF Draymond Green was retained on a 5 year/$82 million deal. MVP PG Stephen Curry and star SG/SF Klay Thompson still form the league’s top backcourt duo, the Warriors’ bench is still among the best in the league, C Andrew Bogut still protects the team's’ basket, and Finals MVP SF/SG Andre Iguodala still locks down the perimeter. The only notable absence is that of PF/C David Lee, but PF/C Jason Thompson, Lee’s replacement, is essentially just cheaper version of him. Expect the Warriors to once again be one of the best, if not the best, team in the league. They’ll also be in the thick of title contention talk this season as the ‘Dubs look to repeat as champs.
Best/Worst Draft Scenarios
(#30 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Drafting PF/C Rakeem Christmas (Syracuse, Senior)
I’m higher on Christmas than most, as he’s generally pegged as a late first-rounder or early-second rounder, but I think that the Warriors would get excellent value for him here with the last pick in the first round. His averages in the tough ACC were astounding: 17.5 points, 9 rebounds, 2.5 blocks, and 1 steal per game on an efficient 55.2% shooting, while not having any major issues at the line (71.2%). Christmas boasts elite length (7’3” wingspan) and athleticism, which help him in becoming an outstanding defender, being very quick off his feet to contest shots. However, he does struggle with stronger centers in the post and will need to transition from the zone defense he played at Syracuse to the man-to-man defense in the NBA, but both of those are addressable issues, the former with bulking up and the latter simply with experience. He also puts his length and athleticism to use in rebounding, though that’s also a double-edged sword: there is potential for him to be great at grabbing boards, but both the effort and timing of his jumps are questionable, yet those issues can also be overcame. The lack of effort in his rebounds are also reflected in his motor, which he lacks, but that can be offset by his mobility and speed for his position. Still, if he wants to make these physical gifts a plus rather than to just offset a negative, he will need to fully commit himself and play 110% at all times. His offensive game, the jump-shot in particular, needs work, but he has steadily improved and features an incomplete yet rapidly growing post game. Above all, he’s 23 years old, making his upside and ability to develop that much smaller, as he’s a few years older than most other prospects. Still, he’s that much more of a complete player, or at the very least his issues are fixable, as the natural gifts (wingspan, athleticism) are all there. For a Warriors team fresh off the title that could still use an extra big body down low that can contribute right away, Christmas is the optimal fit.
Worst Case Scenario: None, Christmas will be available
It’s really just as simple as that. The Warriors will (or at least should) be targeting Christmas, and they will get him. It’s extremely unlikely that Christmas gets taken before #30, as most teams this late will go for long-term potential over the ability to contribute right away. Not the end of the world if he somehow isn’t available, but I’d say there’s at least a 75% chance that he is. End of story.
Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams
Golden State just needs to keep doing what they’re doing. The superstar duo of PG/SG Stephen Curry and SG/SF Klay Thompson just need to keep lighting it up from deep, and those two alone could probably get the Warriors out of the first round. For the regular season success to legitimately carry over, however, defensive studs like SF/PF Draymond Green and C Andrew Bogut are going to need to do a lot of the heavy lifting on the less-glamorous end of the court, while Golden State’s deep bench must continue to produce at a high level. In the end, it really comes down to how far Curry and Thompson can take them. And as long as there’s production elsewhere, that’s all the way.
Draft Targets
Pick #30: Cliff Alexander, Power Forward, Kansas
Though not eligible to play in the tournament, Alexander should still be a late first round selection, and is the best big man available for the Warriors, who would presumably like to draft one. Though not very skilled, Alexander boasts a 7’3” wingspan and great athleticism. He’s averaging 7 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks on an efficient 56.5% from the field – nothing special, but solid numbers nonetheless for the freshman. He can rebound and defend, and that’s pretty much all the Warriors will ask of him, as he will be in a limited role and simply providing insurance behind the injury-prone duo of PF/C David Lee and C Andrew Bogut. Still, being drafted to a title favorite has to make the kid smile.
Season Predictions
Regular Season: The Warriors have absolutely crushed their competition in their conference, much like the Hawks. However, they’ve done so while playing in the Western Conference, the tougher of the two conferences by far, though not to quite the same extent that Atlanta has done so. Led by “The Splash Brothers” in superstar PG/SG Stephen Curry and SG/SF Klay Thompson, as well as the extremely versatile SF/PF Draymond Green and a flurry of others who have stepped up, the Warriors have looked absolutely unstoppable this season. It’s possible they actually get within a few games of the all-time regular season record of 70-12, set by the 1995-1996 Chicago Bulls led by none other than SG Michael Jordan himself, but also like the Hawks, the Warriors would be wise to rest their starters down the stretch in order to keep them fresh for the playoffs. That doesn’t mean the best of the West isn’t going to capture the league’s best record, however.
Projected Record: 62-20
Playoffs Round One
Golden State Warriors (#1) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (#8)
This is where my problems start with the Warriors: the playoffs. There is no denying they’ve been a dominant team throughout the regular season, but I don’t see the playoff experience on this roster. Curry and Thompson are obviously very talented players and are unstoppable from beyond the arc, but do they know how to get it done in the postseason, with a total of one playoff win between the two? Young breakout forwards SF/PF Harrison Barnes and Green also both share that one playoff win that The Splash Brothers also do. Even less-often used veterans PF/C David Lee, C Andrew Bogut, SF/SG Andre Iguodala, and more haven’t even been there and done that, as each has a couple of playoff wins but no titles or really anything particularly close to one. The Thunder, on the other hand, are the complete package for a team that you would think to win the title. Don’t let their #8 seed fool you, as this was mainly due to injuries to reigning MVP superstar SF/PF Kevin Durant and an MVP-frontrunner in superstar PG/SG Russell Westbrook. They should be at full health by the time the playoffs come around, and also boasting elite defender star PF/C Serge Ibaka and a revamped bench from trade acquisitions this season. The Warrior’s depth will be cancelled out by the Thunder’s abundance of it as well, and then it comes down to team chemistry, playoff experience, and stars. The first one is a relative tie, but Oklahoma City probably wins the other two as they boast arguably two of the five best players in the league. This Warriors team is built for regular season success, but I’m not so sure about the playoffs, especially when they have to play a title contender like the Thunder in the first round.
Series Prediction: Oklahoma City wins 4-3
One Trade That Every Team Should Do
Golden State gets: PF Kostas Papanikolaou, PG Isaiah Canaan, New York's 2015 second-rounder (via Houston)
Houston gets: PG Shaun Livingston, Golden State's 2015 first-rounder
Finances: This one is all about clearing cap for Golden State. Livingston has a $5.5 million annual contract, which leads into next season, and that's something that the Warriors just cannot afford if they want to keep SF/PF Draymond Green in free agency. Papanikolaou and Canaan have team options of $4 million and $1 million respectively, which would be declined in order to keep the Warriors under the second luxury tax. Swapping their first rounder for the Knicks' second-rounder, though it looks bad, probably will change next to nothing as those picks will likely be back-to-back anyways. If Golden State wants to keep their core, they've got to get rid of Livingston.
The Fit: Though Papanikolaou and Canaan are merely cap fillers, they may actually play critical roles as the Warriors look to go all the way this year. Canaan and PG Justin Holiday will fight for backup minutes behind superstar PG Stephen Curry, as Livingston would be gone. Papanikolaou could compete for minutes up front, as Golden State's frontcourt is notoriously thin and injury-prone, their main weakness this season. Should Curry go down with another ankle injury, or one of the big men go down with an injury of their own, Canaan and Papanikolaou would be ready to step up, though likely not beyond this season (see above).
Why the other team does it: For Houston, this would sort of be a last-resort move. If GM Daryl Morey is unable to land PG Goran Dragic via a trade and doesn't think he will be able to sign either him or PG Rajon Rondo in free agency to address the Rockets' need for a floor general, Livingston could be the best available point guard. It's not a bad trade either, as Houston gets a small upgrade by flipping the Knicks' second-rounder for Golden State's first, and Canaan and Papanikolaou were just little-used role players anyways. Livingston, though his $5.5 million contract leading into next year prevents Houston from signing a Dragic or a Rondo, is averaging 5 points on 51% shooting, 3 assists and a steal in just 17 minutes a game. He is a fantastic defender, though has a less than desirable shot, which is pretty much exactly what current PG Patrick Beverley brings to the table. By having two point guards with similar play styles, it allows the rest of the team to not have to adjust each time the other one is subbed in. Though the finances hurt, Houston has to like the draft pick upgrade, and could really use Livingston to help push for the title.
State of the Franchise
Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): -$2 million
Background: General Manager Bob Myers has built a very talented squad around a young, flashy backcourt of superstar PG Stephen Curry and star SG Klay Thompson. The rest of the starting lineup is rounded out by SF/SG Andre Iguodala SF/PF Draymond Green, and C Andrew Bogut. After trading G Monta Ellis for Bogut in 2012 and their more recent signing of Iguodala, the Warriors have been a competitive playoff team. However, injuries and lack of bench production have kept them from going deep in the championship hunt in the past couple of years. With the emergence of young forwards SF/PF Harrison Barnes and Green, as well as the addition of PG Shaun Livingston, Golden State now boasts the best record in the entire NBA. Even after passing on trading for All-Star PF Kevin Love (CLE) in favor of keeping Thompson, Golden State is in prime form and on track to win a title soon.
Current Financial State: At $73 million, the team is barely below the luxury tax line, even with Curry's $8 million annual salary, which is probably the best deal in the league. However, due to Klay Thompson's recently signed extension, they are projected to be at $78 million next year, which is $1 million above the luxury tax. They would also like to retain Draymond Green, who is going to be a free agent this year. Most of their money is currently tied up in the bad contracts of Iguodala, PF/C David Lee, and Bogut. They are each being paid about $12 million per year and the earliest contract expires after the 2015-16 season. Golden State is a potential championship team so they cannot afford to break up their core of Curry, Thompson, Iguodala, Lee, Bogut, and Green. In order to compete for a title, however, owner Joe Lacob must be willing to pay the luxury tax, which means accepting PF Marreese Speights' $4 million team option. However, even if Lacob pays the luxury tax, Golden State still must turn to the trade market in order to save enough cap space to re-sign Green and keep them under the second threshold of the luxury tax.
Targets: Golden State is looking for a trade partner to unload some bench players for expiring contracts. A likely candidate to be traded is PG Shaun Livingston. Livingston is currently being paid $5 million a year and trading him could help them dip lower in the luxury tax. A trade that could work would be Livingston for Houston's PF Kosta Papanikolaou, as well as backup PG Isaiah Canaan to play behind Curry in place of Livingston. Golden State would receive Papanikolaou and Canaan’s team options of $5 million and $1 million respectively, which they would decline for financial reasons. This would allow them to retain Draymond Green and the rest of their core players, while remaining in the first luxury tax threshold. Houston does this trade due to their depth at PF, highlighted by Terrence Jones and Josh Smith, and because of their need for a PG to back up current starter Patrick Beverley. The Warriors are unlikely to target anyone besides Green in free agency because they are restricted by the cap.
The Fit: Golden State pulls the trigger on this deal to relieve their cap situation. PG Justin Holiday and Canaan could split the backup minutes behind Curry at PG and Papanikolaou could help out the Warriors' thin, injury-prone frontcourt. Livingston is an upgrade for Houston over Canaan. Livingston meshes well with Houston because like Beverley, he is a pesky defender with a less than desirable shot.
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