Season Predictions 2016
Current seeding: 1st
Projected seeding: 1st
It’s no secret: the Cavs are the best team in the East, period. Yes, the Raptors have been surging, and even defeated Cleveland with PG Kyle Lowry’s late-game heroics, but the pedigree on the team speaks for itself, and obviously that all starts with SF/PF LeBron James. Even with the mysterious firing of head coach David Blatt, a firing that I criticized LeBron for allegedly propagating behind the scenes, new head coach Tyronn Lue has stepped up to the plate admirably. If that wasn’t enough, the Cavs even trekked through the devastating injury to PG Kyrie Irving, and the subsequent rumors of him “not being happy in Cleveland.” In short, Cleveland has gone through a lot this year, and has still emerged at the top, and there’s a lot of credit to go around for that: from LeBron and Lue’s leadership, to Kyrie’s return, to PF Kevin Love’s adjustment into his new role, to the role players stepping up, to GM David Griffin for the smart acquisition of PF Channing Frye. This team has the potential to go all the way this time.
1st round: Indiana Pacers (8)
I’ve said that Cleveland’s road to the finals this season won’t be a cakewalk like last time, but with all due respect to superstar SF Paul George and his mediocre supporting cast… Yeah you get the point. Even if George matches up well against LeBron, like he often did during the Heat-Pacers playoff rivalry back when The King was back in Miami, the supporting casts of the two superstars just aren’t even close. George’s beta dog is SG Monta Ellis, who is disappointing this season with an average of just 14.5 points per game. And LeBron? Well he can choose from Kyrie Irving’s electric 20 points per game and 4.5 assists, or Kevin Love’s inside-outside dominance: 16 points, 10 rebounds, and 2 threes. That’s not even to mention the specialists: sniper SG J.R Smith (2.6 threes per game, PF Tristan Thompson (9.4 rebounds per game), or little annoying nuisances (Matthew Dellavedova). I don’t want to say “cakewalk”, but I just said it.
Prediction: Cleveland wins, 4-0
2nd round: Miami Heat (4)
This is the first big test for Cleveland, not to mention the return of LeBron to Miami for the first time in the postseason. Miami has a very balanced starting five, featuring PG Goran Dragic, SG Dwyane Wade, SF Luol Deng, PF/C Chris Bosh, and C Hassan Whiteside, as well as a bolstered second unit after the signing of SG/SF Joe Johnson. Beating them inside against the Bosh-Whiteside pairing isn’t going to work, nor is complete LeBron takeover when guarded by a solid defender like Deng. Rather, the best approach for Cleveland is to utilize their shooters: guys like J.R Smith, PF Channing Frye, even Love, Kyrie and LeBron. The old “drive, draw, dish” method, ironically employed by James and Wade during their time in Miami, would be a perfect way to overcome Miami, who are not a great three-point shooting team themselves. Thus getting into a shootout with them wouldn’t be the worst idea. Miami is talented, of course, thus the Cavs can win by relying more on their role players than usual to knock down open threes.
Prediction: Cleveland wins, 4-2
3rd round (Eastern Conference Finals): Toronto Raptors (2)
This is another tough SF matchup for LeBron, as he’ll have to be guarded by defensive specialist SF DeMarre Carroll -- another long, quick, and strong defender -- in the likely scenario that Carroll has returned from injury by this point. Offensively, the Raptors are difficult to stop, featuring an electric backcourt duo of PG Kyle Lowry and SG/SF DeMar DeRozan, who average a combined 45+ points per game between the two of them, and will easily outscore Cleveland’s backcourt of Irving and Smith any day. Where the Cavs really have the advantage, rather, is inside, with PF/C Kevin Love, PF Tristan Thompson, C Timofey Mozgov, and more. C Jonas Valanciunas has never been a great defender, and while he can compete with guys like Love for rebounds, it’s clear that the Raptors will be out-rebounded in this one. As collecting missed shots is often a decisive factor in the playoffs, I have to give the edge to Cleveland here.
Prediction: Cleveland wins, 4-2
4th round (Finals): San Antonio Spurs (2)
This will be the third finals in four years of “LeBron vs. the Spurs” , with The King playing on Miami for the other two matchups, which are tied 1-1. San Antonio smoked his Heat in 2014 by a series score of 4-1, so it all depends on one big question: “How much, if at all, better is James’ supporting cast now versus then?” PG Kyrie Irving and PF/C Kevin Love are decently comparable players to SG Dwyane Wade and PF/C Chris Bosh, but it’s clear that the Cavs have stronger role players than Miami did, even though both teams had solid supporting casts. SG’s J.R Smith and Iman Shumpert and big men Timofey Mozgov, PF Channing Frye, PF Tristan Thompson are definite upgrades over the aging three-point specialists on the Heat a few years ago.
Yet San Antonio is a different beast than it was in 2014. The addition of Aldridge is obvious and of paramount importance -- he, along with backup PF David West, will do wonders in improving what was already a superior frontcourt to LeBron’s. Internal growth and the simple maintaining of the same core players by GM R.C Buford will give the Spurs the edge in this series. If they did it once without Aldridge -- and did it 4-1 off of amazing three-point shooting -- they can sure do it again, even if LeBron and his new and improved supporting cast will make the series that much more entertaining. Also, the fact that San Antonio will have four home games in this series, and in every series throughout the playoffs sans against Golden State, is a comforting fact for Spurs fans. You know, considering that they've won 40 straight at home.
Prediction: San Antonio wins, 4-3
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Orlando Magic Trade Grades
Click here for link to Portland Trail Blazers Trade Grades
Cavaliers get: PF Channing Frye
Magic get: SG Jared Cunningham, second-round pick
Blazers get: C/PF Anderson Varejao (waived), top-10 protected 2018 first-rounder (via Cleveland)
That first-rounder was pretty much the last tradeable asset the Cavs had, so they better hope this current roster configuration works out this time. Dumping Varejao's unsightly 2 year/$20 million contract, considering his averages of 2.6 points and 2.9 rebounds per game, is certainly a plus.
But Frye is really the player to evaluate here, and his 3 year/$20.5 million contract, while pricey, isn't quite so outrageous like Varejao's. His raw stats of 5.2 points and 3.2 rebounds per game point towards a down year; however, according to advanced statistics, Frye is putting up 10.9 points and 6.7 rebounds per game with a solid true shooting percentage mark of 58.6%. Frye is an efficient stretch-four that is an optimal fit to play next to LeBron.
While that sounds all well and good, the Cavs really did have bigger needs than another stretch four (isn't that supposed to be your job, Kevin Love?). Between Love, PF/C Tristan Thompson, C Timofey Mozgov, and LeBron often shifting over to power forward, another big man was much more of a want rather than a need. On the other hand, the wing depth is surprisingly thin behind SG/SF's Iman Shumpert and J.R Smith, and that should have been the primary need for Cleveland's front office to address. Oh well.
Grade: B+
Power Rankings
Overall rank: 4th
Tier: Title Contenders
Projected Seeding: 1st in East
Without a doubt, the Cavaliers are a top 5 team overall. But where in that top 5 do they stand? After coming two games short of their first title ever, Cleveland looks to win those two extra games this upcoming season. Under the leadership of none other than superstar SF/PF LeBron James, Cleveland will have stars PF/C Kevin Love and PG Kyrie Irving healthy this season, although Irving is likely to be out until January with a knee injury. PG Mo Williams was also brought in, who will start the season in Irving’s place, but will rather just provide key backcourt depth as the season progresses. The Cavs have kept their core intact since last season, featuring key role players such as SG/SF J.R Smith, SG Iman Shumpert (who will also miss significant time due to injuries), C Timofey Mozgov, and more. And although PF Tristan Thompson’s free agency is just a complete mess, he is likely to be back with the team for at least one more season. If it wasn’t for Irving’s bum knee, the Cavs might have had the top spot in my power rankings, but nonetheless, Irving will be healthy for the playoffs (or so we think) which is essentially all that really matters. Cleveland will still cruise to the East’s #1 seed, and probably a second straight title appearance as well, with chances to win it all.
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Portland Trail Blazers Trade Grades
Trail Blazers get: C/PF Brendan Haywood (waived), SF/SG Mike Miller, 2019 and 2020 second-round picks from Cleveland
Cavaliers get: cash considerations, $10.5 million trade exception, $2.85 million trade exception
The who-gets-what that you see above might be a little confusing, so let me explain: this trade was a salary dump by the Cavs, plain and simple. On a side note, Haywood was waived by Portland for financial reasons, meaning he is a free agent and no longer on the team. Cleveland also did this deal for financial reasons, namely for those two hefty trade exceptions that you see above. The numbers are derived from the players’ contracts that the Cavs traded away, Haywood with a $10.5 million deal, and Miller at $2.85 million. With a $10.5 million trade exception, Cleveland can acquire a player, only via trade, with a contract up to $10.5 million, and have it not count against the salary cap. For a team that is always working against the luxury tax and constantly looking to make improvements, those exceptions (which cannot be combined into one larger trade exception) are absolutely huge. If GM David Griffin fails to acquire a quality player within a year (when they expire), then the Cavs just lost two role players and a couple future draft picks for nothing. However, for a guy that has made something out of nothing in the past, we’ll trust that he can make something out of something.
Grade: A
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Minnesota Timberwolves Trade Grades
Timberwolves get: Draft rights to PG Tyus Jones (#24 pick)
Cavaliers get: Draft rights to: SG Cedi Osman (#31) , PF/C Rakeem Christmas (#36)
Did the Cavaliers need to make this trade? No, absolutely not. In fact, keeping Jones would’ve been an optimal fit in Cleveland, as he would have been the perfect backup to superstar PG Kyrie Irving. However, the Cavaliers decided that they had holes to fill elsewhere, and made an excellent trade value-wise by shipping off the outstanding Duke PG for two intriguing prospects.
Jones has all the makings of a pure and true point guard. He has an elite basketball I.Q, knowing when to shoot and when to pass, and excelling at both. His passing vision is second to none, and he can score in any way: three-pointers, slashing, off the dribble, etc. The Duke standout is also very tough, not to mention his ability to make clutch shots. Though he lacks some physical tools that other prospects boast, nor does he have much quickness or speed, the reigning NCAA Tournament MVP can make an impact both immediately and has high upside long-term. He would’ve competed, and probably defeated, Matthew Dellavedova for minutes at backing up superstar PG Kyrie Irving. However, we all know that Delly is a serviceable backup point guard, and you can’t blame the Cavaliers for prioritizing their wing and their frontcourt.
Osman is one of those guys that really can play three positions for you: PG, SG, and SF. He has great size at 6’6” for wherever he is in the lineup, and can distribute the basketball with the best of them. He’s also always playing 110% at all times with a high motor, and has a great feel for the game overall. However, the #1 pick of round 2 lacks a three-point shot, and also lacks physical tools such as strength and athleticism. The lack of a jumper might be an issue when playing next to LeBron, but Osman still has a skillset that the Cavaliers can utilize well.
Christmas boasts elite length (7’3” wingspan) and athleticism, which help him in becoming an outstanding defender. He also puts his length and athleticism to use in rebounding, which he excels at as well. His offensive game, the jump-shot in particular, needs work, but he has steadily improved and features an incomplete yet rapidly growing post game. Christmas will also need to play with more effort on both ends of the court, and lacks some fundamentals as well. Above all, he’s 23 years old, making his upside and ability to develop that much smaller, as he’s a few years older than most other prospects. However, Cleveland isn’t focused on long-term upside given their title contender status, and would rather just have immediate impact players.
I love almost everything about this trade for Cleveland: the value in getting #31 and #36 for #24 in general, the selection of the prospects, as both Osman and Christmas were minor steals considering where they were drafted, and the financial motivations: fortifying your rotation with uber-cheap rookie deals is the perfect strategy, considering all of the Cavaliers’ salary cap troubles. It’s far too simple-minded to just look at how the Cavs gave up the reigning tournament MVP for a pair of second-rounders, as once you think a little deeper, this is an excellent trade for Cleveland.
Grade: A-
Best/Worst Draft Scenarios
(#24 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Drafting SF Justin Anderson (Virginia, Junior)
Right up until the playoffs and perhaps partway through it, the Cavaliers’ need via the draft was obvious: a backup point guard for star PG Kyrie Irving. However, Matthew Dellavedova has really stepped it up in the postseason, particularly in the finals when Irving went down with an injury, so that eliminates any need there. Cleveland could also use some more depth up front, but wing is their biggest need, particularly to find some sort of injection of youth there. Other than superstar SF/PF LeBron James of course, their entire wing rotation could hit free agency: SG/SF J.R Smith, SG/SF Iman Shumpert, SF/SG James Jones, and SF/PF Shawn Marion, while the latter two could consider retirement. Given how LeBron loves to drive and kick out to open shooters, the Cavaliers badly need another “3 and D”: a wing who can shoot threes and play defense. There is nobody in this entire draft that fits that term better than Justin Anderson, an excellent shooter and an elite defender. He averaged 2 threes per game on a ridiculous 45% shooting from beyond the arc against extremely tough competition in the ACC at Virginia. In addition, the Junior features an imposing frame that he puts to good use to become the fantastic defender that he is. Although he can’t do much else besides shoot and defend and his upside is limited, Anderson excels at what he does and would be the perfect complementary piece for LeBron and the Cavs.
Worst Case Scenario: Trading the pick for another washed-up veteran
Obviously I phrased it negatively: “washed-up veteran”, but on the outskirts, trading the pick for a more instant contributor, even if they’re old, could appear to make a lot of sense. This is a team with little to no young talent (unless you count star PG Kyrie Irving as “young”, of course) with a lot of veterans already, that’s trying to win a championship now, not 5 years from now. However, that would be a very rash decision by a franchise that’s no stranger to poor choices. Exhibit A of my argument would be this year’s NBA Finals: despite featuring five 30+ year olds in their regular-season rotation, the Cavaliers’ starting 5 (and their sixth man) have an average age of 26, and that’s even after youngsters like Irving and PF/C Kevin Love got hurt. Their lack of depth hurt them severely in the series, as their old guys’ stamina was just too low. The point is, that if Cleveland wants to make a deep postseason run again (which of course they do), they’re going to need more young, fresh legs, rather than acquiring more old guys that will eventually be too tired after a grueling 82-game season and 4 best-of-seven playoff series. In addition, Cleveland will be hard on cap space this summer, so adding a cheap rookie deal, as opposed to taking on a veteran’s contract, makes a lot more sense. If the right offer comes along (say, 28 year old SF Wilson Chandler in exchange for the pick), then sure the Cavs can take it, but that’s rather unlikely. Instead, Cleveland should look to add a fresh-legged complementary piece (like Anderson) via the draft.
Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams
The best case scenario for Cleveland, simply put, is that their bench performs well. Despite upgrading it countless times throughout the year, their second unit has continued to struggle. This was at full display when the Cavaliers rested their starters in two games against the Boston Celtics -- only to see their bench get dismantled by a star-less squad both times. However, if their second unit can step it up and team chemistry is not an issue, Cleveland should have no problem sweeping in the first round, giving them a nice long break before a likely second-round victory. There, in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Cavaliers will almost certainly have to square off against the top-seeded Hawks for a path to the finals. If SF/PF LeBron James, PF/C Kevin Love, PG Kyrie Irving, and the rest are all on their A-game and lighting it up on offense, Cleveland will be able to squeak by for a trip to the finals. And if that trend continues, the city of Cleveland could see their first professional sports championship in a very long time.
Draft Targets
Pick #25: Delon Wright, Point Guard/Shooting Guard, Utah
The only obvious need to address for this Cavaliers team is at backup point guard, where PG Matthew Dellavedova just isn’t getting it done behind star PG Kyrie Irving. Rather than going further above the luxury tax line in free agency to find the answer, Cleveland can simply select an NBA-ready floor general to lead their second unit. Enter Delon Wright, a mismatch machine as a 6’5” point guard that’s also able to slide over to the two. Averaging 15 points, 5.5 assists, 5 rebounds, 2 steals, 1 block, and 1 three per game while hitting a ridiculous 53% of his shots from the field and 37% from beyond the arc, Wright has turned many heads this year with his incredible versatility. He’s one of the most mature players in the country, as he can lead any offense with his great pick-and-roll ability. Also cutting down on his turnovers this year, Wright is an obvious choice for the Cavaliers should he fall this far.
Season Predictions
Regular season: The Cavaliers have finally been looking like true title contenders as of late, and that is in large part due to their midseason acquisitions to fill needs on defense at their two weakest positions: SG and C. They did this by acquiring SG’s Iman Shumpert and J.R Smith, and also C’s Timofey Mozgov and Kendrick Perkins, while only giving up unhappy SG Dion Waiters and draft picks. A lot of the credit has to go towards the imporved play of SF/PF LeBron James, who is the reason why Cleveland is title contenders in the first place, and also the cause of pretty much everybody else on the roster being there, with the exception of star PG Kyrie Irving. Still, they’re slow start to the season and the Atlanta’s ridiculous record, among other factors, will prevent the Cavaliers from notching too high a seed. Though team chemistry is still an issue that can only be fixed with time, this experienced team remains a force to be reckoned with come playoff time.
Projected Record: 51-31
Playoffs Round One
Cleveland Cavaliers (#3) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (#6
A warm-up for Cleveland in round one. Milwaukee only has the sixth seed due to the career year by PG/SG Brandon Knight, though the Bucks sold-high on him and dealt him for prospects, namely reigning Rookie of the Year PG/SG Michael Carter-Williams, before the trade deadline. Now Milwaukee is just collection of young guys with potential, most notably SF/SG Giannis “The Greek Freak” Antetokounmpo and most recent number two overall pick SF/SG Jabari Parker both on the right side of 20 years old, though Parker is injured this season. The team will be very competitive in a few years, but Cleveland is very competitive right now, as star PF/C Kevin Love appears in his first career playoff game.
Series Prediction: Cleveland Wins 4-1
Playoffs Round Two
Cleveland Cavaliers (#3) vs. Miami Heat (#7)
This one is sure to get some nice TV ratings. I have the Heat upsetting the #2 seeded Toronto Raptors, which why yes basketball fans, that means LeBron will play against his former team that he left in the dust this past free agency. Miami is sure to be hungry and out for revenge in this one, but it’s hard for them to do so when superstar PF/C Chris Bosh is out for the season with dangerous blood clots on his lungs. My prayers go out to him. The mid-season acquisition of Slovenian PG/SG Goran Dragic does a lot to ease this pain, as does a healthy (for now) superstar SG Dwyane Wade, an emerging star in C Hassan Whiteside, and the perimeter ace SF Luol Deng. Miami’s backcourt is probably actually better than Cleveland’s, as Dragic and Wade form a very formidable duo, and Whiteside is probably better than whatever the Cavaliers can currently offer at center. Deng can’t shut down LeBron, as nobody can, but as he has shown in the past from his days as a Bull, he can certainly contain him and minimize his huge impact on defense. PF Josh Mcroberts can also match up nicely against Love on defense. However, Miami simply lacks the depth that Cleveland can offer. Their starters might be able to keep pace, but the Heat’s rotation is just too thin, especially compared to this Cleveland team which has many spark plugs off the bench. In addition, there is always the risk of Wade getting injured, which the Heat simply cannot afford. A healthy Bosh could easily make this a different story, but lucky for Cleveland, it’s not.
Series Prediction: Cleveland wins 4-2
Playoffs Round Three
Atlanta Hawks (#1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (#3)
This is the matchup we've all been waiting for out East. With Rose injured for Chicago, these are by far the best teams in the weaker Eastern Conference. It ultimately comes down to one big question. What is more important: team chemistry, or playoff experience/success? The Hawks have plenty of the former but lack the latter, as none of their starting five players ever making it to a Conference Finals game. However, their nickname as “The Spurs of the East” is most certainly true, as they knock down a ton of threes (“You’re welcome” says deadeye SG Kyle Korver and to a lesser extent SF DeMarre Carroll), play selflessly, and just win basketball games, all without the presence of a superstar. Of course, the Hawks still feature plenty of stars, though none of them “super”, as PG Jeff Teague, Korver, PF Paul Millsap, C Al Horford, and Head Coach Mike Budenholzer were all selected to the All-Star Game this year. The Cavaliers are pretty much the polar opposites of this. They have a ton of playoff success between all of their players, but lack the chemistry as most of them just joined the team this year. They feature arguably three superstars in LeBron, Irving, and Love, and just surround them with complimentary pieces. They don’t really take a lot of threes, preferring to just run their offense through their studs. They look eerily similar to LeBron’s Heat from last year, while the Hawks look eerily similar to the Spurs of last year. We all know how that played out, but this still figures to be a much more grueling and close series than that.
Series Prediction: Atlanta wins 4-3
One Trade That Every Team Should Do
Cleveland gets: PG Pablo Prigioni, SF Travis Wear
New York gets: C Brendan Haywood, 2015 second-rounder (less favorable of Portland or Chicago)
Finances: Not much to see here. Prigioni has 2 years and $3.4 million remaining on his deal, fair numbers for someone of his level. Haywood has a very odd sort of contract, but all-in-all it’s pretty much just an expiring $2.2 million deal, and Wear’s deal is worth just $500,000 and ends after this season. Prigioni’s $1.7 million could be a factor in an offseason where Cleveland will be working against the cap, though it is such a small number that it likely won’t be an issue. Nothing to see here. Move along.
The Fit: Cleveland has long been in the market for a backup point guard to Kyrie Irving, and although there are better names on the trading block, namely PG Jameer Nelson (DEN), the only real asset the Cavaliers have to part with is that second-round pick, likely not enough to net themselves Nelson. Prigioni is a solid consolation prize, however, as he is averaging 5 points, 2.5 assists, and 1 three in just 18.5 minutes per contest. He can run the second-unit when Irving needs a breather, and should Irving go down with an injury, Prigioni can step up as a temporary starter, while superstar SF/PF LeBron James would do most of the ball-handling and distributing, anyways. Prigioni addresses a need for Cleveland, and could be the final piece in their quest for the championship.
Why the other team does it: President Phil Jackson has been aggressively trying to clear the books for this offseason in an effort to maximize cap room in an effort to go all-in towards signing big name free agents, and Prigioni will likely just be another domino to fall in that attempt. Even that small $1.7 million could take away precious cap space for a team that is competing for the league’s worst record, and netting a second-rounder for him doesn’t hurt, either. Wear means next to nothing in this trade, and Haywood’s deal expires at season’s end anyways. Should Cleveland be willing to cough up their last draft pick in the foreseeable future in exchange for Prigioni, Jackson shouldn’t hesitate to pull the trigger.
State of the Franchise
Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $6 million
Background: After Cleveland went a combined 97-215 (0.31 win percentage), earning them three number one draft choices in the four seasons sans LeBron, a miracle occurred: LeBron returned! It is far beyond me or anybody much else to comprehend exactly why “The King” chose to return to Cleveland, where he had one title appearance and precisely zero titles in seven years, over his Miami Heat, where he had a title appearance in each of his four Heat seasons, winning two of them. Nevertheless, it was back to the Cavaliers for LeBron. Along with him, LeBron helped bring superstar PF Kevin Love to Cleveland, as well as many other veterans, signing on to a roster that already featured the sensational PG Kyrie Irving. This season, GM David Griffin dealt away a couple draft picks in order to bring defensive specialists C Timofey Mozgov and SG Iman Shumpert to a team that could really use some help on the less-glamorous side of the ball. However, in the Shumpert deal, Knicks President and 11-time champion Phil Jackson managed to stick Cleveland with SG JR Smith and his $6.4 million player option for next season. Despite the new additions and a star-studded team, Cleveland still hasn’t necessarily been firing on all cylinders this year. Granted, they have been much better than they were without LeBron, but that’s like saying your three-year-old daughter runs much faster than a slug. Lack of chemistry, continued defensive issues, and even a lack of respect for head coach David Blatt, among other things, have kept the Cavaliers’ record around .500, despite playing in the weak Eastern Conference. Only time will tell if they can turn things around, and that had better happen quick with Love and LeBron being free agents at the season’s end.
Current Financial State: Cavaliers fans everywhere are holding their breath in advance of this offseason. As touched on above, both LeBron James and Kevin Love could opt out of the final years of their contracts, for approximately $21.6 and $16.7 million, respectively. However, there should be minimal concern among the fan base. As long as Cleveland doesn’t turn this season into a complete letdown, both James and Love should stick around. If either or both players do opt out, it would likely be just to re-sign with the Cavaliers on a long-term deal, and both could do so for about the same annual value as their respective player options. Next season is also the first where Kyrie Irving’s new 5 year/$90 million extension kicks in, but lucky for Cleveland, it counts for just $14.7 million against the cap in the first year. The unsightly contracts of C Anderson Varejao and the aforementioned JR Smith, at $9.7 and $6.4 million respectively, will hog precious cap room this offseason, effectively ending any chances for new additions. SG Shumpert and PF Tristan Thompson will also be free agents at season’s end, and while the latter is rather expendable (or could be re-signed for cheap), it is critical that the Cavaliers didn’t just take on Smith’s contract for nothing. Re-signing Shumpert could cost $5-6 million annually over a few years, which would really push Cleveland deep into the luxury tax. In addition, three-point specialist SF Mike Miller has a fairly reasonable $2.85 million player option for next year, which he will likely take. Fortunately, newly acquired C Timofey Mozgov has a team option of just under $5 million for next season, an absolute steal of a contract that the Cavaliers will certainly pick up. However, all told, this roster could cost up to $80 million next year. Hopefully for outspoken owner Dan Gilbert, a couple players will take modest pay cuts to get that number under the second luxury tax threshold at $77 million, or else Gilbert will be facing a massive luxury tax bill from the NBA.
Targets: The front office has expressed no interest in trying to shave down their payroll next year, acquiring Mozgov and JR Smith’s contracts that run through next year, as mentioned above. This trend does not figure to change anytime soon, with Gilbert seemingly ready to pay almost whatever it takes to finally bring a title to Cleveland. Most recently, several rumors have swirled about Cleveland acquiring a veteran backup point guard, because, as Yahoo! Sports’ Marc J. Spears noted, they are “a Kyrie Irving injury away from trouble.” Waived by the Clippers after acquiring G Austin Rivers, PG Jordan Farmar figures to be an intriguing fit. The 28-year-old could likely be had for the veteran’s minimum or $1 million at most over just one year, so his contract will not be an issue next year. The upside of signing someone like Farmar as opposed to trading for someone like Knicks PG Pablo Prigioni, whom the Cavaliers have been linked to in trade rumors, is that Cleveland doesn’t actually have to give anything to get Farmar. Farmar would certainly love to play for a contender, so this deal makes sense for both parties involved.
The Fit: A two-time champion that can distribute and light it up from deep, Jordan Farmar provides both championship pedigree and a spark off the bench for a team that needs it. Current backup PG Matthew Dellavedova simply isn’t getting it done behind Irving. In the event that Kyrie does go down with an injury, Farmar would be ready, willing and able to step up and run the point. After averaging 10 ppg and 5 apg to go along with 1.7 made three-pointers per game last year in just 22 minutes per game, Farmar is a very serviceable backup point guard. Despite a fairly steep drop off this season (4.5 ppg, 2 apg, 1 three pointer per game, and under 15 mpg), Farmar can step up when called upon, and could well be the missing piece in Cleveland’s 45-year long championship puzzle.
Current seeding: 1st
Projected seeding: 1st
It’s no secret: the Cavs are the best team in the East, period. Yes, the Raptors have been surging, and even defeated Cleveland with PG Kyle Lowry’s late-game heroics, but the pedigree on the team speaks for itself, and obviously that all starts with SF/PF LeBron James. Even with the mysterious firing of head coach David Blatt, a firing that I criticized LeBron for allegedly propagating behind the scenes, new head coach Tyronn Lue has stepped up to the plate admirably. If that wasn’t enough, the Cavs even trekked through the devastating injury to PG Kyrie Irving, and the subsequent rumors of him “not being happy in Cleveland.” In short, Cleveland has gone through a lot this year, and has still emerged at the top, and there’s a lot of credit to go around for that: from LeBron and Lue’s leadership, to Kyrie’s return, to PF Kevin Love’s adjustment into his new role, to the role players stepping up, to GM David Griffin for the smart acquisition of PF Channing Frye. This team has the potential to go all the way this time.
1st round: Indiana Pacers (8)
I’ve said that Cleveland’s road to the finals this season won’t be a cakewalk like last time, but with all due respect to superstar SF Paul George and his mediocre supporting cast… Yeah you get the point. Even if George matches up well against LeBron, like he often did during the Heat-Pacers playoff rivalry back when The King was back in Miami, the supporting casts of the two superstars just aren’t even close. George’s beta dog is SG Monta Ellis, who is disappointing this season with an average of just 14.5 points per game. And LeBron? Well he can choose from Kyrie Irving’s electric 20 points per game and 4.5 assists, or Kevin Love’s inside-outside dominance: 16 points, 10 rebounds, and 2 threes. That’s not even to mention the specialists: sniper SG J.R Smith (2.6 threes per game, PF Tristan Thompson (9.4 rebounds per game), or little annoying nuisances (Matthew Dellavedova). I don’t want to say “cakewalk”, but I just said it.
Prediction: Cleveland wins, 4-0
2nd round: Miami Heat (4)
This is the first big test for Cleveland, not to mention the return of LeBron to Miami for the first time in the postseason. Miami has a very balanced starting five, featuring PG Goran Dragic, SG Dwyane Wade, SF Luol Deng, PF/C Chris Bosh, and C Hassan Whiteside, as well as a bolstered second unit after the signing of SG/SF Joe Johnson. Beating them inside against the Bosh-Whiteside pairing isn’t going to work, nor is complete LeBron takeover when guarded by a solid defender like Deng. Rather, the best approach for Cleveland is to utilize their shooters: guys like J.R Smith, PF Channing Frye, even Love, Kyrie and LeBron. The old “drive, draw, dish” method, ironically employed by James and Wade during their time in Miami, would be a perfect way to overcome Miami, who are not a great three-point shooting team themselves. Thus getting into a shootout with them wouldn’t be the worst idea. Miami is talented, of course, thus the Cavs can win by relying more on their role players than usual to knock down open threes.
Prediction: Cleveland wins, 4-2
3rd round (Eastern Conference Finals): Toronto Raptors (2)
This is another tough SF matchup for LeBron, as he’ll have to be guarded by defensive specialist SF DeMarre Carroll -- another long, quick, and strong defender -- in the likely scenario that Carroll has returned from injury by this point. Offensively, the Raptors are difficult to stop, featuring an electric backcourt duo of PG Kyle Lowry and SG/SF DeMar DeRozan, who average a combined 45+ points per game between the two of them, and will easily outscore Cleveland’s backcourt of Irving and Smith any day. Where the Cavs really have the advantage, rather, is inside, with PF/C Kevin Love, PF Tristan Thompson, C Timofey Mozgov, and more. C Jonas Valanciunas has never been a great defender, and while he can compete with guys like Love for rebounds, it’s clear that the Raptors will be out-rebounded in this one. As collecting missed shots is often a decisive factor in the playoffs, I have to give the edge to Cleveland here.
Prediction: Cleveland wins, 4-2
4th round (Finals): San Antonio Spurs (2)
This will be the third finals in four years of “LeBron vs. the Spurs” , with The King playing on Miami for the other two matchups, which are tied 1-1. San Antonio smoked his Heat in 2014 by a series score of 4-1, so it all depends on one big question: “How much, if at all, better is James’ supporting cast now versus then?” PG Kyrie Irving and PF/C Kevin Love are decently comparable players to SG Dwyane Wade and PF/C Chris Bosh, but it’s clear that the Cavs have stronger role players than Miami did, even though both teams had solid supporting casts. SG’s J.R Smith and Iman Shumpert and big men Timofey Mozgov, PF Channing Frye, PF Tristan Thompson are definite upgrades over the aging three-point specialists on the Heat a few years ago.
Yet San Antonio is a different beast than it was in 2014. The addition of Aldridge is obvious and of paramount importance -- he, along with backup PF David West, will do wonders in improving what was already a superior frontcourt to LeBron’s. Internal growth and the simple maintaining of the same core players by GM R.C Buford will give the Spurs the edge in this series. If they did it once without Aldridge -- and did it 4-1 off of amazing three-point shooting -- they can sure do it again, even if LeBron and his new and improved supporting cast will make the series that much more entertaining. Also, the fact that San Antonio will have four home games in this series, and in every series throughout the playoffs sans against Golden State, is a comforting fact for Spurs fans. You know, considering that they've won 40 straight at home.
Prediction: San Antonio wins, 4-3
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Orlando Magic Trade Grades
Click here for link to Portland Trail Blazers Trade Grades
Cavaliers get: PF Channing Frye
Magic get: SG Jared Cunningham, second-round pick
Blazers get: C/PF Anderson Varejao (waived), top-10 protected 2018 first-rounder (via Cleveland)
That first-rounder was pretty much the last tradeable asset the Cavs had, so they better hope this current roster configuration works out this time. Dumping Varejao's unsightly 2 year/$20 million contract, considering his averages of 2.6 points and 2.9 rebounds per game, is certainly a plus.
But Frye is really the player to evaluate here, and his 3 year/$20.5 million contract, while pricey, isn't quite so outrageous like Varejao's. His raw stats of 5.2 points and 3.2 rebounds per game point towards a down year; however, according to advanced statistics, Frye is putting up 10.9 points and 6.7 rebounds per game with a solid true shooting percentage mark of 58.6%. Frye is an efficient stretch-four that is an optimal fit to play next to LeBron.
While that sounds all well and good, the Cavs really did have bigger needs than another stretch four (isn't that supposed to be your job, Kevin Love?). Between Love, PF/C Tristan Thompson, C Timofey Mozgov, and LeBron often shifting over to power forward, another big man was much more of a want rather than a need. On the other hand, the wing depth is surprisingly thin behind SG/SF's Iman Shumpert and J.R Smith, and that should have been the primary need for Cleveland's front office to address. Oh well.
Grade: B+
Power Rankings
Overall rank: 4th
Tier: Title Contenders
Projected Seeding: 1st in East
Without a doubt, the Cavaliers are a top 5 team overall. But where in that top 5 do they stand? After coming two games short of their first title ever, Cleveland looks to win those two extra games this upcoming season. Under the leadership of none other than superstar SF/PF LeBron James, Cleveland will have stars PF/C Kevin Love and PG Kyrie Irving healthy this season, although Irving is likely to be out until January with a knee injury. PG Mo Williams was also brought in, who will start the season in Irving’s place, but will rather just provide key backcourt depth as the season progresses. The Cavs have kept their core intact since last season, featuring key role players such as SG/SF J.R Smith, SG Iman Shumpert (who will also miss significant time due to injuries), C Timofey Mozgov, and more. And although PF Tristan Thompson’s free agency is just a complete mess, he is likely to be back with the team for at least one more season. If it wasn’t for Irving’s bum knee, the Cavs might have had the top spot in my power rankings, but nonetheless, Irving will be healthy for the playoffs (or so we think) which is essentially all that really matters. Cleveland will still cruise to the East’s #1 seed, and probably a second straight title appearance as well, with chances to win it all.
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Portland Trail Blazers Trade Grades
Trail Blazers get: C/PF Brendan Haywood (waived), SF/SG Mike Miller, 2019 and 2020 second-round picks from Cleveland
Cavaliers get: cash considerations, $10.5 million trade exception, $2.85 million trade exception
The who-gets-what that you see above might be a little confusing, so let me explain: this trade was a salary dump by the Cavs, plain and simple. On a side note, Haywood was waived by Portland for financial reasons, meaning he is a free agent and no longer on the team. Cleveland also did this deal for financial reasons, namely for those two hefty trade exceptions that you see above. The numbers are derived from the players’ contracts that the Cavs traded away, Haywood with a $10.5 million deal, and Miller at $2.85 million. With a $10.5 million trade exception, Cleveland can acquire a player, only via trade, with a contract up to $10.5 million, and have it not count against the salary cap. For a team that is always working against the luxury tax and constantly looking to make improvements, those exceptions (which cannot be combined into one larger trade exception) are absolutely huge. If GM David Griffin fails to acquire a quality player within a year (when they expire), then the Cavs just lost two role players and a couple future draft picks for nothing. However, for a guy that has made something out of nothing in the past, we’ll trust that he can make something out of something.
Grade: A
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Minnesota Timberwolves Trade Grades
Timberwolves get: Draft rights to PG Tyus Jones (#24 pick)
Cavaliers get: Draft rights to: SG Cedi Osman (#31) , PF/C Rakeem Christmas (#36)
Did the Cavaliers need to make this trade? No, absolutely not. In fact, keeping Jones would’ve been an optimal fit in Cleveland, as he would have been the perfect backup to superstar PG Kyrie Irving. However, the Cavaliers decided that they had holes to fill elsewhere, and made an excellent trade value-wise by shipping off the outstanding Duke PG for two intriguing prospects.
Jones has all the makings of a pure and true point guard. He has an elite basketball I.Q, knowing when to shoot and when to pass, and excelling at both. His passing vision is second to none, and he can score in any way: three-pointers, slashing, off the dribble, etc. The Duke standout is also very tough, not to mention his ability to make clutch shots. Though he lacks some physical tools that other prospects boast, nor does he have much quickness or speed, the reigning NCAA Tournament MVP can make an impact both immediately and has high upside long-term. He would’ve competed, and probably defeated, Matthew Dellavedova for minutes at backing up superstar PG Kyrie Irving. However, we all know that Delly is a serviceable backup point guard, and you can’t blame the Cavaliers for prioritizing their wing and their frontcourt.
Osman is one of those guys that really can play three positions for you: PG, SG, and SF. He has great size at 6’6” for wherever he is in the lineup, and can distribute the basketball with the best of them. He’s also always playing 110% at all times with a high motor, and has a great feel for the game overall. However, the #1 pick of round 2 lacks a three-point shot, and also lacks physical tools such as strength and athleticism. The lack of a jumper might be an issue when playing next to LeBron, but Osman still has a skillset that the Cavaliers can utilize well.
Christmas boasts elite length (7’3” wingspan) and athleticism, which help him in becoming an outstanding defender. He also puts his length and athleticism to use in rebounding, which he excels at as well. His offensive game, the jump-shot in particular, needs work, but he has steadily improved and features an incomplete yet rapidly growing post game. Christmas will also need to play with more effort on both ends of the court, and lacks some fundamentals as well. Above all, he’s 23 years old, making his upside and ability to develop that much smaller, as he’s a few years older than most other prospects. However, Cleveland isn’t focused on long-term upside given their title contender status, and would rather just have immediate impact players.
I love almost everything about this trade for Cleveland: the value in getting #31 and #36 for #24 in general, the selection of the prospects, as both Osman and Christmas were minor steals considering where they were drafted, and the financial motivations: fortifying your rotation with uber-cheap rookie deals is the perfect strategy, considering all of the Cavaliers’ salary cap troubles. It’s far too simple-minded to just look at how the Cavs gave up the reigning tournament MVP for a pair of second-rounders, as once you think a little deeper, this is an excellent trade for Cleveland.
Grade: A-
Best/Worst Draft Scenarios
(#24 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Drafting SF Justin Anderson (Virginia, Junior)
Right up until the playoffs and perhaps partway through it, the Cavaliers’ need via the draft was obvious: a backup point guard for star PG Kyrie Irving. However, Matthew Dellavedova has really stepped it up in the postseason, particularly in the finals when Irving went down with an injury, so that eliminates any need there. Cleveland could also use some more depth up front, but wing is their biggest need, particularly to find some sort of injection of youth there. Other than superstar SF/PF LeBron James of course, their entire wing rotation could hit free agency: SG/SF J.R Smith, SG/SF Iman Shumpert, SF/SG James Jones, and SF/PF Shawn Marion, while the latter two could consider retirement. Given how LeBron loves to drive and kick out to open shooters, the Cavaliers badly need another “3 and D”: a wing who can shoot threes and play defense. There is nobody in this entire draft that fits that term better than Justin Anderson, an excellent shooter and an elite defender. He averaged 2 threes per game on a ridiculous 45% shooting from beyond the arc against extremely tough competition in the ACC at Virginia. In addition, the Junior features an imposing frame that he puts to good use to become the fantastic defender that he is. Although he can’t do much else besides shoot and defend and his upside is limited, Anderson excels at what he does and would be the perfect complementary piece for LeBron and the Cavs.
Worst Case Scenario: Trading the pick for another washed-up veteran
Obviously I phrased it negatively: “washed-up veteran”, but on the outskirts, trading the pick for a more instant contributor, even if they’re old, could appear to make a lot of sense. This is a team with little to no young talent (unless you count star PG Kyrie Irving as “young”, of course) with a lot of veterans already, that’s trying to win a championship now, not 5 years from now. However, that would be a very rash decision by a franchise that’s no stranger to poor choices. Exhibit A of my argument would be this year’s NBA Finals: despite featuring five 30+ year olds in their regular-season rotation, the Cavaliers’ starting 5 (and their sixth man) have an average age of 26, and that’s even after youngsters like Irving and PF/C Kevin Love got hurt. Their lack of depth hurt them severely in the series, as their old guys’ stamina was just too low. The point is, that if Cleveland wants to make a deep postseason run again (which of course they do), they’re going to need more young, fresh legs, rather than acquiring more old guys that will eventually be too tired after a grueling 82-game season and 4 best-of-seven playoff series. In addition, Cleveland will be hard on cap space this summer, so adding a cheap rookie deal, as opposed to taking on a veteran’s contract, makes a lot more sense. If the right offer comes along (say, 28 year old SF Wilson Chandler in exchange for the pick), then sure the Cavs can take it, but that’s rather unlikely. Instead, Cleveland should look to add a fresh-legged complementary piece (like Anderson) via the draft.
Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams
The best case scenario for Cleveland, simply put, is that their bench performs well. Despite upgrading it countless times throughout the year, their second unit has continued to struggle. This was at full display when the Cavaliers rested their starters in two games against the Boston Celtics -- only to see their bench get dismantled by a star-less squad both times. However, if their second unit can step it up and team chemistry is not an issue, Cleveland should have no problem sweeping in the first round, giving them a nice long break before a likely second-round victory. There, in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Cavaliers will almost certainly have to square off against the top-seeded Hawks for a path to the finals. If SF/PF LeBron James, PF/C Kevin Love, PG Kyrie Irving, and the rest are all on their A-game and lighting it up on offense, Cleveland will be able to squeak by for a trip to the finals. And if that trend continues, the city of Cleveland could see their first professional sports championship in a very long time.
Draft Targets
Pick #25: Delon Wright, Point Guard/Shooting Guard, Utah
The only obvious need to address for this Cavaliers team is at backup point guard, where PG Matthew Dellavedova just isn’t getting it done behind star PG Kyrie Irving. Rather than going further above the luxury tax line in free agency to find the answer, Cleveland can simply select an NBA-ready floor general to lead their second unit. Enter Delon Wright, a mismatch machine as a 6’5” point guard that’s also able to slide over to the two. Averaging 15 points, 5.5 assists, 5 rebounds, 2 steals, 1 block, and 1 three per game while hitting a ridiculous 53% of his shots from the field and 37% from beyond the arc, Wright has turned many heads this year with his incredible versatility. He’s one of the most mature players in the country, as he can lead any offense with his great pick-and-roll ability. Also cutting down on his turnovers this year, Wright is an obvious choice for the Cavaliers should he fall this far.
Season Predictions
Regular season: The Cavaliers have finally been looking like true title contenders as of late, and that is in large part due to their midseason acquisitions to fill needs on defense at their two weakest positions: SG and C. They did this by acquiring SG’s Iman Shumpert and J.R Smith, and also C’s Timofey Mozgov and Kendrick Perkins, while only giving up unhappy SG Dion Waiters and draft picks. A lot of the credit has to go towards the imporved play of SF/PF LeBron James, who is the reason why Cleveland is title contenders in the first place, and also the cause of pretty much everybody else on the roster being there, with the exception of star PG Kyrie Irving. Still, they’re slow start to the season and the Atlanta’s ridiculous record, among other factors, will prevent the Cavaliers from notching too high a seed. Though team chemistry is still an issue that can only be fixed with time, this experienced team remains a force to be reckoned with come playoff time.
Projected Record: 51-31
Playoffs Round One
Cleveland Cavaliers (#3) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (#6
A warm-up for Cleveland in round one. Milwaukee only has the sixth seed due to the career year by PG/SG Brandon Knight, though the Bucks sold-high on him and dealt him for prospects, namely reigning Rookie of the Year PG/SG Michael Carter-Williams, before the trade deadline. Now Milwaukee is just collection of young guys with potential, most notably SF/SG Giannis “The Greek Freak” Antetokounmpo and most recent number two overall pick SF/SG Jabari Parker both on the right side of 20 years old, though Parker is injured this season. The team will be very competitive in a few years, but Cleveland is very competitive right now, as star PF/C Kevin Love appears in his first career playoff game.
Series Prediction: Cleveland Wins 4-1
Playoffs Round Two
Cleveland Cavaliers (#3) vs. Miami Heat (#7)
This one is sure to get some nice TV ratings. I have the Heat upsetting the #2 seeded Toronto Raptors, which why yes basketball fans, that means LeBron will play against his former team that he left in the dust this past free agency. Miami is sure to be hungry and out for revenge in this one, but it’s hard for them to do so when superstar PF/C Chris Bosh is out for the season with dangerous blood clots on his lungs. My prayers go out to him. The mid-season acquisition of Slovenian PG/SG Goran Dragic does a lot to ease this pain, as does a healthy (for now) superstar SG Dwyane Wade, an emerging star in C Hassan Whiteside, and the perimeter ace SF Luol Deng. Miami’s backcourt is probably actually better than Cleveland’s, as Dragic and Wade form a very formidable duo, and Whiteside is probably better than whatever the Cavaliers can currently offer at center. Deng can’t shut down LeBron, as nobody can, but as he has shown in the past from his days as a Bull, he can certainly contain him and minimize his huge impact on defense. PF Josh Mcroberts can also match up nicely against Love on defense. However, Miami simply lacks the depth that Cleveland can offer. Their starters might be able to keep pace, but the Heat’s rotation is just too thin, especially compared to this Cleveland team which has many spark plugs off the bench. In addition, there is always the risk of Wade getting injured, which the Heat simply cannot afford. A healthy Bosh could easily make this a different story, but lucky for Cleveland, it’s not.
Series Prediction: Cleveland wins 4-2
Playoffs Round Three
Atlanta Hawks (#1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (#3)
This is the matchup we've all been waiting for out East. With Rose injured for Chicago, these are by far the best teams in the weaker Eastern Conference. It ultimately comes down to one big question. What is more important: team chemistry, or playoff experience/success? The Hawks have plenty of the former but lack the latter, as none of their starting five players ever making it to a Conference Finals game. However, their nickname as “The Spurs of the East” is most certainly true, as they knock down a ton of threes (“You’re welcome” says deadeye SG Kyle Korver and to a lesser extent SF DeMarre Carroll), play selflessly, and just win basketball games, all without the presence of a superstar. Of course, the Hawks still feature plenty of stars, though none of them “super”, as PG Jeff Teague, Korver, PF Paul Millsap, C Al Horford, and Head Coach Mike Budenholzer were all selected to the All-Star Game this year. The Cavaliers are pretty much the polar opposites of this. They have a ton of playoff success between all of their players, but lack the chemistry as most of them just joined the team this year. They feature arguably three superstars in LeBron, Irving, and Love, and just surround them with complimentary pieces. They don’t really take a lot of threes, preferring to just run their offense through their studs. They look eerily similar to LeBron’s Heat from last year, while the Hawks look eerily similar to the Spurs of last year. We all know how that played out, but this still figures to be a much more grueling and close series than that.
Series Prediction: Atlanta wins 4-3
One Trade That Every Team Should Do
Cleveland gets: PG Pablo Prigioni, SF Travis Wear
New York gets: C Brendan Haywood, 2015 second-rounder (less favorable of Portland or Chicago)
Finances: Not much to see here. Prigioni has 2 years and $3.4 million remaining on his deal, fair numbers for someone of his level. Haywood has a very odd sort of contract, but all-in-all it’s pretty much just an expiring $2.2 million deal, and Wear’s deal is worth just $500,000 and ends after this season. Prigioni’s $1.7 million could be a factor in an offseason where Cleveland will be working against the cap, though it is such a small number that it likely won’t be an issue. Nothing to see here. Move along.
The Fit: Cleveland has long been in the market for a backup point guard to Kyrie Irving, and although there are better names on the trading block, namely PG Jameer Nelson (DEN), the only real asset the Cavaliers have to part with is that second-round pick, likely not enough to net themselves Nelson. Prigioni is a solid consolation prize, however, as he is averaging 5 points, 2.5 assists, and 1 three in just 18.5 minutes per contest. He can run the second-unit when Irving needs a breather, and should Irving go down with an injury, Prigioni can step up as a temporary starter, while superstar SF/PF LeBron James would do most of the ball-handling and distributing, anyways. Prigioni addresses a need for Cleveland, and could be the final piece in their quest for the championship.
Why the other team does it: President Phil Jackson has been aggressively trying to clear the books for this offseason in an effort to maximize cap room in an effort to go all-in towards signing big name free agents, and Prigioni will likely just be another domino to fall in that attempt. Even that small $1.7 million could take away precious cap space for a team that is competing for the league’s worst record, and netting a second-rounder for him doesn’t hurt, either. Wear means next to nothing in this trade, and Haywood’s deal expires at season’s end anyways. Should Cleveland be willing to cough up their last draft pick in the foreseeable future in exchange for Prigioni, Jackson shouldn’t hesitate to pull the trigger.
State of the Franchise
Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $6 million
Background: After Cleveland went a combined 97-215 (0.31 win percentage), earning them three number one draft choices in the four seasons sans LeBron, a miracle occurred: LeBron returned! It is far beyond me or anybody much else to comprehend exactly why “The King” chose to return to Cleveland, where he had one title appearance and precisely zero titles in seven years, over his Miami Heat, where he had a title appearance in each of his four Heat seasons, winning two of them. Nevertheless, it was back to the Cavaliers for LeBron. Along with him, LeBron helped bring superstar PF Kevin Love to Cleveland, as well as many other veterans, signing on to a roster that already featured the sensational PG Kyrie Irving. This season, GM David Griffin dealt away a couple draft picks in order to bring defensive specialists C Timofey Mozgov and SG Iman Shumpert to a team that could really use some help on the less-glamorous side of the ball. However, in the Shumpert deal, Knicks President and 11-time champion Phil Jackson managed to stick Cleveland with SG JR Smith and his $6.4 million player option for next season. Despite the new additions and a star-studded team, Cleveland still hasn’t necessarily been firing on all cylinders this year. Granted, they have been much better than they were without LeBron, but that’s like saying your three-year-old daughter runs much faster than a slug. Lack of chemistry, continued defensive issues, and even a lack of respect for head coach David Blatt, among other things, have kept the Cavaliers’ record around .500, despite playing in the weak Eastern Conference. Only time will tell if they can turn things around, and that had better happen quick with Love and LeBron being free agents at the season’s end.
Current Financial State: Cavaliers fans everywhere are holding their breath in advance of this offseason. As touched on above, both LeBron James and Kevin Love could opt out of the final years of their contracts, for approximately $21.6 and $16.7 million, respectively. However, there should be minimal concern among the fan base. As long as Cleveland doesn’t turn this season into a complete letdown, both James and Love should stick around. If either or both players do opt out, it would likely be just to re-sign with the Cavaliers on a long-term deal, and both could do so for about the same annual value as their respective player options. Next season is also the first where Kyrie Irving’s new 5 year/$90 million extension kicks in, but lucky for Cleveland, it counts for just $14.7 million against the cap in the first year. The unsightly contracts of C Anderson Varejao and the aforementioned JR Smith, at $9.7 and $6.4 million respectively, will hog precious cap room this offseason, effectively ending any chances for new additions. SG Shumpert and PF Tristan Thompson will also be free agents at season’s end, and while the latter is rather expendable (or could be re-signed for cheap), it is critical that the Cavaliers didn’t just take on Smith’s contract for nothing. Re-signing Shumpert could cost $5-6 million annually over a few years, which would really push Cleveland deep into the luxury tax. In addition, three-point specialist SF Mike Miller has a fairly reasonable $2.85 million player option for next year, which he will likely take. Fortunately, newly acquired C Timofey Mozgov has a team option of just under $5 million for next season, an absolute steal of a contract that the Cavaliers will certainly pick up. However, all told, this roster could cost up to $80 million next year. Hopefully for outspoken owner Dan Gilbert, a couple players will take modest pay cuts to get that number under the second luxury tax threshold at $77 million, or else Gilbert will be facing a massive luxury tax bill from the NBA.
Targets: The front office has expressed no interest in trying to shave down their payroll next year, acquiring Mozgov and JR Smith’s contracts that run through next year, as mentioned above. This trend does not figure to change anytime soon, with Gilbert seemingly ready to pay almost whatever it takes to finally bring a title to Cleveland. Most recently, several rumors have swirled about Cleveland acquiring a veteran backup point guard, because, as Yahoo! Sports’ Marc J. Spears noted, they are “a Kyrie Irving injury away from trouble.” Waived by the Clippers after acquiring G Austin Rivers, PG Jordan Farmar figures to be an intriguing fit. The 28-year-old could likely be had for the veteran’s minimum or $1 million at most over just one year, so his contract will not be an issue next year. The upside of signing someone like Farmar as opposed to trading for someone like Knicks PG Pablo Prigioni, whom the Cavaliers have been linked to in trade rumors, is that Cleveland doesn’t actually have to give anything to get Farmar. Farmar would certainly love to play for a contender, so this deal makes sense for both parties involved.
The Fit: A two-time champion that can distribute and light it up from deep, Jordan Farmar provides both championship pedigree and a spark off the bench for a team that needs it. Current backup PG Matthew Dellavedova simply isn’t getting it done behind Irving. In the event that Kyrie does go down with an injury, Farmar would be ready, willing and able to step up and run the point. After averaging 10 ppg and 5 apg to go along with 1.7 made three-pointers per game last year in just 22 minutes per game, Farmar is a very serviceable backup point guard. Despite a fairly steep drop off this season (4.5 ppg, 2 apg, 1 three pointer per game, and under 15 mpg), Farmar can step up when called upon, and could well be the missing piece in Cleveland’s 45-year long championship puzzle.
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