Season Predictions 2016
Current seeding: 14th
Projected seeding: 14th
Well, the Nets. The fourth worst record in the league, and not a draft pick in June to show for it (*insert Danny Ainge’s evil laugh here*). The team has tried to rid any memory of the past's disasters, clearing the books of dead money by buying out Deron Williams (DAL, PG), Joe Johnson (MIA, SG/SF), PF/C Andrea Bargnani, while also firing GM Billy King. The team locked up the frontcourt duo of PF/SF Thaddeus Young and C Brook Lopez to extensions last offseason, and both are probably the only guys that I can say have performed admirably this season on Brooklyn, unless you count PG Jarrett Jack, who has been out since New Year's with a season-ending injury. There is hope that the team can be re-build around Young and Lopez in free agency, but it will be very difficult to do so with the lack of draft picks being a turn-off for free agents. Either way, this season has long been a lost cause.
Power Rankings
Overall rank: 24th
Tier: Playoff Hopefuls
Projected Seeding: 12th in East
The Nets wisely kept a keen eye on the future this offseason, after several ugly, future-mortgaging decisions over the past few years. They locked up their frontcourt duo of PF/SF Thaddeus Young and C Brook Lopez to contract extensions, spent the #29 pick in the draft on Syracuse standout PF/C Chris McCollough, and acquired defensive ace SF Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, the #23 pick in the draft, from Portland to round out their future core. PG Deron Williams and his ugly contract were bought out to preserve cap space, and SG Joe Johnson’s contract expires after this season, which will be the final connection to Brooklyn’s troubled past, and open up major financial flexibility next summer. But while these moves look all well and good for potential success down the line, the Nets did little to nothing to help fill the void left by Williams at point guard, and Joe Johnson will probably have to be their number one scoring option again at 34 years old, as the rest of their roster is too young to take on a leading role for a playoff team (save for perhaps Lopez and Young). Which is precisely why they are not yet a playoff team.
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Detroit Pistons Trade Grades
Pistons get: PG/SG Steve Blake
Nets get: SF Quincy Miller (waived)
This was Brooklyn’s second attempt of clearing cap space by getting rid of point guards in the span of just three days. The other being the buyout of infamously overpaid PG Deron Williams, who is now with the Mavericks. Since Miller was waived, it’s pretty clear that the Nets’ only intention here was to shed Blake’s $2.1 million salary. As they try to climb under the luxury tax, that’s not necessarily a bad thing, but it leaves Jarrett Jack and Shane Larkin as the only point guards left on the roster. And while potentially serviceable, I’m not sure that duo really screams “playoffs!”.
Grade: B-
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Portland Trail Blazers Trade Grade
Nets get: Draft rights to SF Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (#23 pick), PG Steve Blake
Blazers get: C/PF Mason Plumlee, SG/SF Pat Connaughton (#41 pick)
Well, Brooklyn seems committed to C Brook Lopez. They dealt away Lopez’s quality backup, Plumlee, here, and now need to re-sign him in free agency more than ever. This trade also shows that the Nets have an eye on the future, acquiring a prospect like Hollis-Jefferson, and are just counting down the days until the albatross contracts of PG Deron Williams and SG/SF Joe Johnson come off the books. It could also show that the Nets are just simply trying to save money by acquiring a cheap rookie contract in Hollis-Jefferson that can contribute right away. We don’t know. What we do know, however, is that Brooklyn got fair value for a quality big man (Plumlee) in this deal.
Plumlee is a quality big man, a good rotational piece that can rebound and defend, as well as the ability to occasionally get a basket or two. His offensive game is limited, but he’s still just 25 years old and is only a two-year veteran, so there’s more time for development there. His production was sound this season: 8.7 points on an efficient 57.3%, 6.2 rebounds, and a combined 1.6 blocks and steals per game in 21.3 minutes. He shouldn’t be relied upon as a full-time starter, but will be missed in Brooklyn, as the Nets must find a replacement up front for the Duke product. He was also on his cheap rookie deal for the next two years (combined just $3.7 million).
Connaughton, the #41 pick, could materialize as a solid rotational piece in the pros. The effort is always there with him: he has a high motor, is tough, physical, and is always hard-working when he’s on the floor, especially on defense. He’s also an excellent shooter that already has NBA three-point range (the pro 3-point line is a few feet further back than the college line). However, he is already 22 years old, so his long-term upside has is capped, and really isn’t particularly quick, especially when slashing to the basket. He’s also a bit undersized for his position. All in all, there were questions about whether Connaughton would even get drafted, so giving him up is really no big deal for Brooklyn.
Blake has always been no more than a backup point guard, and that’s especially true now that he’s 35 years old. He can knock down threes, however, as he hit one a game on an efficient 35.2% from beyond the arc. Blake is a solid defender, and also averaged 3.6 assists per game last year, so he can effectively run the second unit. However, he is very limited offensively and with Williams and PG Jarrett Jack ahead of him on the depth chart in Brooklyn, Blake won’t get much playing time in Brooklyn. He was mainly involved due to his expiring contract worth $2.1 million.
Hollis-Jefferson is the real prize of this deal for the Nets. The #23 pick has a completely busted jump shot, and although that’s a glaring weakness, it’s really his only one. Hollis-Jefferson is a fantastic defender that can guard multiple positions. He boasts tremendous physical gifts as well: his length, strength, speed, quickness and athleticism are all outstanding, and that stuff just isn’t teachable. He has a high motor, superb handles, and can slash to the basket and finish. His defensive skills and intangibles will translate from college to the NBA right away, but he will need to develop a solid jumper if he wants to become an offensive force in the pros. There’s both a short and long-term role for him in Brooklyn.
Overall, I like this deal for the Nets. They get a guy that can both contribute right away and possesses star potential down the line in Hollis-Jefferson. Losing Plumlee hurts, yes, but he is replaceable via free agency. A guy you pay $1 million a year that could be big-time, well, he’s not replaceable via free agency. Good move here by Brooklyn for both the short and the long-term.
Grade: B+
Best/Worst Draft Scenarios
(#29 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Drafting SF Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (Arizona, Sophomore)
In the NBA today, with the three-point shot being as valuable as it is, it’s not impossible for a early-to-mid-20s guy like Hollis-Jefferson to slip to #29, though it is highly unlikely. The one and only knock on him is a huge one: his broken jump-shot. He is an abysmal shooter, but excels in almost every other area. Offensively, he is very quick and fast both with the ball and without it, allowing him to get to the rim and finish there, which he excels at. After all, he did manage to put up 11.2 points per game in the tough Pac-12, but scoring at the next level without a working jumper could be the sixth “Mission: Impossible” movie. He has ridiculous length, with a wingspan measuring 7’2”, which he puts to good use in corralling rebounds (7 per game). The main use of that length, however, is on defense, the most valuable aspect of his game that he brings to the table. Hollis-Jefferson can guard multiple positions, piling up a combined 2.0 blocks and steals per game, and that skill should translate nicely to the next level. He also has a high motor, helping him in all aspects of his game. The Nets need a small forward and could also use some extra defensive help while SG/SF Joe Johnson handles most of the wing scoring load, and Hollis-Jefferson, though without a jump-shot, is the answer and a steal at #29.
Worst Case Scenario: Packaging PF/C Mason Plumlee and the pick to trade up
According to reports, the Nets are actually looking to do this. My only question is: why? Plumlee is still a young, emerging player at 25 years old and in just his second season. Per 36 minutes, the Duke product averaged: 14.8 points, 10.6 rebounds, 1.3 blocks, and 1.3 steals, all while connecting on 57.3% of his shot attempts. The only alarming factor here is his lack of improvement since his rookie season, as he only showed modest improvements around the board except at rebounding, where he almost doubled last year’s numbers this season. He at the very least gives Brooklyn some leverage in contract negotiations with both star C Brook Lopez and PF/SF Thaddeus Young, as there is a backup waiting that can contribute right away. And that’s really the key here: contributing right away. Even if they could get into the mid-teens with the aforementioned package, drafting a guy that they would have to wait a few years on development-wise is not what this aging roster needs. Rather, they need someone that can help them compete now, which is what Plumlee is. And unless they get a godfather offer to enter the top 10 with their package, that’s who they should stick with.
Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams
After making the playoffs by the skin of their teeth, Brooklyn still has an outside chance of making a run. Of course, this would mean upsetting the mighty Atlanta Hawks in the first round, an almost impossible task. However, this is more or less the same team that upset the third-seeded Toronto Raptors in the first round last year. PG Deron Williams and SG/SF Joe Johnson can form a dynamic backcourt, and they must do a lot in this series to pick apart the stingy Atlanta defense. C Brook Lopez needs to become a two-way force, while C/PF Mason Plumlee makes the battle for rebounds competitive. PF/SF Thaddeus Young must bring his intangibles to the table: defense, rebounding, and the occasional scoring from the low block. If everything clicks and a relatively weak second unit steps up, knocking off Atlanta isn't out of the question, nor is making the Eastern Conference Finals afterwards. The road won't go further than there however, but that would be a fantastic run for such an overpaid group.
Draft Targets
Pick #29 (via Atlanta): Sam Dekker, Small Forward, Wisconsin
The Nets are pretty much in best-player-available mode at this point, but the fact that Dekker also plays small forward, their weakest position, doesn’t hurt either. Dekker is averaging 13 points on 51.5% shooting for one of the best teams in the country, while also chipping in 5.5 rebounds and a three per game. He’s a glue guy that is more effective in a smaller role and working off the ball, and that’s exactly what he would be in Brooklyn. Love the fit.
Season Predictions
Regular Season: The Nets find themselves well under .500 as we approach the stretch run of the regular season, but lucky for them, they play in the ridiculously bad Eastern Conference. Somebody has to take the last two playoff spots out East, and as the Pelicans unofrunately play in the West, Brooklyn will rise to the occasion and snag the eighth and final spot while the Miami Heat finish #7. They will be lead by an overpaid, injury-prone, and aging trio of PG Deron Williams, SG/SF Joe Johnson, and C Brook Lopez. PF/SF Thaddeus Young, recently acquired from Minnesota, and young big man C/PF Mason Plumlee will also play pivotal roles for the Nets. Although Detroit, Boston, and Indiana are all within striking distance of the last playoff spot, it’s really process of elimination that gives Brooklyn a postseason birth.
Projected Record: 37-45
Playoffs Round One
Atlanta Hawks (#1) vs. Brooklyn Nets (#8)
With all due respect to Brooklyn, as they remain a mediocre team, Atlanta could probably win this series if all their players were blindfolded and their starting five got replaced by D-Leaguers. Exaggerating, but only slightly. Though without a true superstar, Atlanta is one of the most feared teams in the league, boasting a star-studded starting lineup of PG Jeff Teague, SG Kyle Korver, SF DeMarre Carroll, PF Paul Millsap, and C Al Horford. Four all-stars this year, plus their coach, Mike Budenholzer, and that makes five. The Nets barely draw comparison. Enough said.
Series Prediction: Atlanta wins 4-0
Trade Grades
Nets get: PF/SF Thaddeus Young
Timberwolves get: PF/C Kevin Garnett
If I would've told you before the deadline that this would be the one trade that the Nets would do, you would've thought I was crazy. The Nets did not move ANY of their big contracts in C Brook Lopez, PG Deron Williams, or SG/SF Joe Johnson, despite plenty of rumors swirling on all three and Lopez in particular. Instead, the Nets added MORE money to their already gargantuan payroll with Young being due $18.9 million over the next two years. If I was grading just swapping the about-to-retire, empty tank of gas that is Kevin Garnett on an overpaid and expiring contract for a young, talented Thaddeus Young on a reasonable contract, Brooklyn would get an A+ and it's not even close. However, with the goal at this deadline being to SHED salary and not take more money back, this move is a head-scratcher from a financial point of view, despite Young's fair contract.
Grade: B
One Trade That Every Team Should Do
Brooklyn gets: PF Carl Landry, PF Derrick Williams, PF Jason Thompson, C Ryan Hollins
Sacramento gets: PG Deron Williams, C Mason Plumlee, PF Mirza Teletovic
Finances: The financial motivations for both teams in this trade are HUGE, with roughly $45 million in total contracts just this year being exchanged. Brooklyn is trying to get rid of their major salary commitments over the coming years: Williams, as well as SG Joe Johnson and C Brook Lopez, all grossly overpaid, though Lopez not as much. Williams still has $63 million remaining over three years, while
Plumlee is on the ever-cheap rookie deal, and Teletovic has a $3.4 million expiring deal, and the latter two are necessary to add in order to get the Kings to take on Williams’ awful contract. The Nets, in exchange, must take on the unsightly deals of Thompson and Landry, both of which are due roughly $21 million apiece over the next three years. Williams and Hollins, on the other hand, give the Nets a break with expiring deals worth $6.7 and $1 million, respectively. Dumping Williams’ salary is more than nice, but taking on Landry and Thompson’s deals, as well as coughing up valuable assets in Plumlee and Teletovic, is what makes this deal fair.
The Fit: These four players, all big men, will likely actually play major minutes for Brooklyn this year, especially in the probable scenario where Lopez is traded. However, Brooklyn doesn’t actually want these players, as they are just contract fill-ins for evening out Williams’ massive salary. Once their deals are up, it is unlikely that they will ever play for the Nets again, as the team continues to rebuild by clearing cap space. Losing Plumlee and Teletovic obviously hurts, but it is well worth it to get rid of Williams’ unsightly contract.
Why the other team does it: You can certainly make the case that this is just another awful move by the Kings, as this is an overpaid, inefficient, injury-prone point guard, where Darren Collison has been putting together quite a season. First of all, Williams and Collison can co-exist, as Williams can play shooting guard occasionally. While Williams is a little injury-prone and certainly overpaid, look at what Sacramento is getting in this deal. They dump both Thompson and Landry’s deals, worth about a combined $13 million annually, meaning the Kings only net a negative $7 million per year over the next three years by doing this trade, as Williams is owed $20 million this year, if that makes any sense. Teletovic, and Plumlee in particular, can easily make up for that. Teletovic is a stretch-four, averaging 1.6 threes a game, which is something the Kings have been longing for to pair with superstar C DeMarcus Cousins. Plumlee, just 24, is already averaging 10 points on a ridiculous 59% shooting, to go with 7 rebounds and a block and a steal per game. In addition Williams does add some value to help close that $7 million gap, with averages of 13 points and 1.5 threes, though on a dismal 38.5% shooting, but adding 6 assists and a steal a game. Alineup featuring Williams, Collison, young SG’s Ben McLemore and Nik Stauskas, SF Rudy Gay, Teletovic, Plumlee, and Cousins could legitimately compete for a playoff spot, even out West.
State of the Franchise
Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $0 million
Background: It may seem like ages ago, but it was only the 2012 free agency when the Brooklyn Nets put together likely the worst offseason of all time, one that still haunts them today and will continue to do so until PG Deron Williams’ contract comes off the books in three years. Williams, considered possibly the best point guard in the league at the time, was debating between re-signing with the Brooklyn Nets (then in New Jersey) or signing with the Mavericks in his hometown of Dallas. Unfortunately for the Nets, he decided to sign a 5 year/$98 million max deal, and even worse, the Nets took it. But as if ruining the future of the franchise for the next five years wasn’t enough, the Nets had to make sure they completely messed it up. They made sure they were unable to spend a single penny for the next four years while not being the least bit competitive. They traded many key role players, SG Anthony Morrow and SF DeShawn Stevenson among them, and a draft pick for SG Joe Johnson’s 4 year/$90 million contract from the Atlanta Hawks. Johnson’s combination of lack of talent and horrible contract made him one of those guys that you dump off on another team along with draft picks and get nothing in return, but the Nets still coughed up a first rounder. In addition, Gerald Wallace, now one of the worst players in the NBA, was signed to a 4 year/$40 million deal, and injury-prone center Brook Lopez was signed to a 4 year/$60 million pact. Keep in mind that the payroll limit before the luxury tax is $76.8 million, even lower back then, and the Nets spent $67 million on these four players alone. An NBA roster consists of 13-15 players, and nobody can be signed for less than $940,000, and those are the very worst players in the NBA. You do the math. In addition, all of these contracts ran for at least four years, and not one of these players even produced half of what they signed for on the court. But the Nets weren’t done ruining their future. The following offseason, they dealt three first round picks (2014, 2016, and 2018) to the Boston Celtics as well as several key role players in exchange for PF Kevin Garnett, SF Paul Pierce, and SG Jason Terry, though they did dump Wallace’s contract on Boston. Those three first-rounders could have been used to dump Williams’ contract on someone, and perhaps even Johnson’s deal as well. This decision allowed the Nets to put together an all-washed-up-and-injury-prone starting five of Williams, Johnson, Pierce, Garnett, and Lopez in 2013-2014, though these five did have 35 all-star appearances between them. However, the season did not go as the front office had planned. The Nets, despite an NBA-record $101 million plus payroll, finished at just 44-38 and the sixth seed in the weak Eastern Conference, and were eliminated in the second round by the Miami Heat. That summer, Pierce left in free agency simply because the Nets could not afford to pay him, nor could they afford to find a replacement. With their hands tied financially and no infusion of talent coming anytime soon from the draft due to a lack of picks, it will be a long time before Brooklyn is competitive again.
Current Financial State: With over $76 million committed already in contracts next year, the Brooklyn Nets are already at the luxury tax. Of that $76 million, $63 million of it is committed to Williams, Johnson, and Lopez, with Garnett’s $12 million coming off the books this year. However, the Nets are actively shopping all three of their big contracts, eagerly attempting to find any takers. For now, however, the Nets are very tied down financially. Don’t expect any major newcomers in Brooklyn until these contracts expire.
Targets: Anybody. Literally anybody in a trade, as Brooklyn cannot sign anybody in free agency with their current cap dilemma. Their targets are written as they are because the Nets are trying to trade away the contracts of Lopez, Williams, and Johnson, and they should and will take anybody necessary to get rid of these three players, as long as the incomers have a short term contract. The Nets are trying to trade these contracts because owner Mikhail Prokhorov is trying to sell the team, and reducing the check another owner has to write would make purchasing the Nets all the more attractive. This is a shame, because the one aspect the Nets really did have going for them was Prokhorov’s willingness to pay the hefty luxury tax bill. Brook Lopez, in particular, is drawing actual interest from several teams, including the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Denver Nuggets, and the Miami Heat, a team that has been in the market for a center for quite a few years now. Any contracts that the Nets would have to take back in order to get rid of Lopez are worth it in this situation. The Kings had rumored interest in Williams, but talks have died down as of late. The main issue with any of these trades, even assuming a team was willing to take on one of these contracts, is making the money work. It’s hard to even out $20 million plus in a trade, especially when the Nets aren’t trying to get any long-term deals. However, the Lakers have a variety of expiring deals this year that they could use to acquire one of these players, while the Kings do not. One trade that could work is as follows: The Lakers send the large expiring contracts of PG’s Steve Nash and Jeremy Lin, as well as Ryan Kelly’s small 2 year/$3.5 million deal. The Nets would in turn be able to send PG Deron Williams. Of course, the Nets would need to add some sort of sweetener to make this deal work, and without any picks to give (thanks, Pierce and Garnett), it would have to be outstanding second year Duke product, C Mason Plumlee. Plumlee is one of the few young talents the Nets have, but that’s the price you must pay to get rid of Williams and his contract. From the Nets’ perspective, this trade makes sense. They get rid of Williams’ contract while taking on no long-term deals, other than Kelly’s small contract that carries into next year. Losing Plumlee hurts, but it is well worth it. From the Lakers perspective, Williams’ contract runs past the loaded 2016 free agent class, but Plumlee more than compensates for that. Averaging 10 points on 59% shooting as well as 7 rebounds and a block per game, Plumlee could pair nicely with rookie PF Julius Randle for a potential frontcourt of the future in LA. Brooklyn could really use a break after what it has been through the past couple of off-seasons , and this is a prime opportunity for one.
The Fit: Well, ummm… hmmm. This is a tough one. As the Nets’ targets are “anybody”, it is hard to necessarily say how that fits on the basketball court. Of course, the Nets overall would be a worse team this season as a result of, say that trade with the Lakers, but it will no doubt help them in the long run. Guys like Lin and Nash would fight for minutes at point guard along with PG Jarrett Jack. The Nets would have no interest in keeping around either of these point guards long term, as they both come off the books next year. Kelly is sort of redundant with PF Mirza Teletovic, so he also does not figure to have a long-term role with the franchise. Remember, the only reason these guys are in the trade is for salary cap purposes, and to even out the $20+ million contract of Williams annually. Getting rid of Lopez and perhaps Johnson do seem like genuine possibilities, as the former has garnered interest from Miami, Denver, and Oklahoma City, while the latter has turned heads in Charlotte and might be a good fit in New Orleans. Good luck getting rid of those contracts, Brooklyn. You’re going to need it.
Current seeding: 14th
Projected seeding: 14th
Well, the Nets. The fourth worst record in the league, and not a draft pick in June to show for it (*insert Danny Ainge’s evil laugh here*). The team has tried to rid any memory of the past's disasters, clearing the books of dead money by buying out Deron Williams (DAL, PG), Joe Johnson (MIA, SG/SF), PF/C Andrea Bargnani, while also firing GM Billy King. The team locked up the frontcourt duo of PF/SF Thaddeus Young and C Brook Lopez to extensions last offseason, and both are probably the only guys that I can say have performed admirably this season on Brooklyn, unless you count PG Jarrett Jack, who has been out since New Year's with a season-ending injury. There is hope that the team can be re-build around Young and Lopez in free agency, but it will be very difficult to do so with the lack of draft picks being a turn-off for free agents. Either way, this season has long been a lost cause.
Power Rankings
Overall rank: 24th
Tier: Playoff Hopefuls
Projected Seeding: 12th in East
The Nets wisely kept a keen eye on the future this offseason, after several ugly, future-mortgaging decisions over the past few years. They locked up their frontcourt duo of PF/SF Thaddeus Young and C Brook Lopez to contract extensions, spent the #29 pick in the draft on Syracuse standout PF/C Chris McCollough, and acquired defensive ace SF Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, the #23 pick in the draft, from Portland to round out their future core. PG Deron Williams and his ugly contract were bought out to preserve cap space, and SG Joe Johnson’s contract expires after this season, which will be the final connection to Brooklyn’s troubled past, and open up major financial flexibility next summer. But while these moves look all well and good for potential success down the line, the Nets did little to nothing to help fill the void left by Williams at point guard, and Joe Johnson will probably have to be their number one scoring option again at 34 years old, as the rest of their roster is too young to take on a leading role for a playoff team (save for perhaps Lopez and Young). Which is precisely why they are not yet a playoff team.
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Detroit Pistons Trade Grades
Pistons get: PG/SG Steve Blake
Nets get: SF Quincy Miller (waived)
This was Brooklyn’s second attempt of clearing cap space by getting rid of point guards in the span of just three days. The other being the buyout of infamously overpaid PG Deron Williams, who is now with the Mavericks. Since Miller was waived, it’s pretty clear that the Nets’ only intention here was to shed Blake’s $2.1 million salary. As they try to climb under the luxury tax, that’s not necessarily a bad thing, but it leaves Jarrett Jack and Shane Larkin as the only point guards left on the roster. And while potentially serviceable, I’m not sure that duo really screams “playoffs!”.
Grade: B-
Trade Grades
Click here for link to Portland Trail Blazers Trade Grade
Nets get: Draft rights to SF Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (#23 pick), PG Steve Blake
Blazers get: C/PF Mason Plumlee, SG/SF Pat Connaughton (#41 pick)
Well, Brooklyn seems committed to C Brook Lopez. They dealt away Lopez’s quality backup, Plumlee, here, and now need to re-sign him in free agency more than ever. This trade also shows that the Nets have an eye on the future, acquiring a prospect like Hollis-Jefferson, and are just counting down the days until the albatross contracts of PG Deron Williams and SG/SF Joe Johnson come off the books. It could also show that the Nets are just simply trying to save money by acquiring a cheap rookie contract in Hollis-Jefferson that can contribute right away. We don’t know. What we do know, however, is that Brooklyn got fair value for a quality big man (Plumlee) in this deal.
Plumlee is a quality big man, a good rotational piece that can rebound and defend, as well as the ability to occasionally get a basket or two. His offensive game is limited, but he’s still just 25 years old and is only a two-year veteran, so there’s more time for development there. His production was sound this season: 8.7 points on an efficient 57.3%, 6.2 rebounds, and a combined 1.6 blocks and steals per game in 21.3 minutes. He shouldn’t be relied upon as a full-time starter, but will be missed in Brooklyn, as the Nets must find a replacement up front for the Duke product. He was also on his cheap rookie deal for the next two years (combined just $3.7 million).
Connaughton, the #41 pick, could materialize as a solid rotational piece in the pros. The effort is always there with him: he has a high motor, is tough, physical, and is always hard-working when he’s on the floor, especially on defense. He’s also an excellent shooter that already has NBA three-point range (the pro 3-point line is a few feet further back than the college line). However, he is already 22 years old, so his long-term upside has is capped, and really isn’t particularly quick, especially when slashing to the basket. He’s also a bit undersized for his position. All in all, there were questions about whether Connaughton would even get drafted, so giving him up is really no big deal for Brooklyn.
Blake has always been no more than a backup point guard, and that’s especially true now that he’s 35 years old. He can knock down threes, however, as he hit one a game on an efficient 35.2% from beyond the arc. Blake is a solid defender, and also averaged 3.6 assists per game last year, so he can effectively run the second unit. However, he is very limited offensively and with Williams and PG Jarrett Jack ahead of him on the depth chart in Brooklyn, Blake won’t get much playing time in Brooklyn. He was mainly involved due to his expiring contract worth $2.1 million.
Hollis-Jefferson is the real prize of this deal for the Nets. The #23 pick has a completely busted jump shot, and although that’s a glaring weakness, it’s really his only one. Hollis-Jefferson is a fantastic defender that can guard multiple positions. He boasts tremendous physical gifts as well: his length, strength, speed, quickness and athleticism are all outstanding, and that stuff just isn’t teachable. He has a high motor, superb handles, and can slash to the basket and finish. His defensive skills and intangibles will translate from college to the NBA right away, but he will need to develop a solid jumper if he wants to become an offensive force in the pros. There’s both a short and long-term role for him in Brooklyn.
Overall, I like this deal for the Nets. They get a guy that can both contribute right away and possesses star potential down the line in Hollis-Jefferson. Losing Plumlee hurts, yes, but he is replaceable via free agency. A guy you pay $1 million a year that could be big-time, well, he’s not replaceable via free agency. Good move here by Brooklyn for both the short and the long-term.
Grade: B+
Best/Worst Draft Scenarios
(#29 pick)
Best Case Scenario: Drafting SF Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (Arizona, Sophomore)
In the NBA today, with the three-point shot being as valuable as it is, it’s not impossible for a early-to-mid-20s guy like Hollis-Jefferson to slip to #29, though it is highly unlikely. The one and only knock on him is a huge one: his broken jump-shot. He is an abysmal shooter, but excels in almost every other area. Offensively, he is very quick and fast both with the ball and without it, allowing him to get to the rim and finish there, which he excels at. After all, he did manage to put up 11.2 points per game in the tough Pac-12, but scoring at the next level without a working jumper could be the sixth “Mission: Impossible” movie. He has ridiculous length, with a wingspan measuring 7’2”, which he puts to good use in corralling rebounds (7 per game). The main use of that length, however, is on defense, the most valuable aspect of his game that he brings to the table. Hollis-Jefferson can guard multiple positions, piling up a combined 2.0 blocks and steals per game, and that skill should translate nicely to the next level. He also has a high motor, helping him in all aspects of his game. The Nets need a small forward and could also use some extra defensive help while SG/SF Joe Johnson handles most of the wing scoring load, and Hollis-Jefferson, though without a jump-shot, is the answer and a steal at #29.
Worst Case Scenario: Packaging PF/C Mason Plumlee and the pick to trade up
According to reports, the Nets are actually looking to do this. My only question is: why? Plumlee is still a young, emerging player at 25 years old and in just his second season. Per 36 minutes, the Duke product averaged: 14.8 points, 10.6 rebounds, 1.3 blocks, and 1.3 steals, all while connecting on 57.3% of his shot attempts. The only alarming factor here is his lack of improvement since his rookie season, as he only showed modest improvements around the board except at rebounding, where he almost doubled last year’s numbers this season. He at the very least gives Brooklyn some leverage in contract negotiations with both star C Brook Lopez and PF/SF Thaddeus Young, as there is a backup waiting that can contribute right away. And that’s really the key here: contributing right away. Even if they could get into the mid-teens with the aforementioned package, drafting a guy that they would have to wait a few years on development-wise is not what this aging roster needs. Rather, they need someone that can help them compete now, which is what Plumlee is. And unless they get a godfather offer to enter the top 10 with their package, that’s who they should stick with.
Best Case Scenario for Playoff Teams
After making the playoffs by the skin of their teeth, Brooklyn still has an outside chance of making a run. Of course, this would mean upsetting the mighty Atlanta Hawks in the first round, an almost impossible task. However, this is more or less the same team that upset the third-seeded Toronto Raptors in the first round last year. PG Deron Williams and SG/SF Joe Johnson can form a dynamic backcourt, and they must do a lot in this series to pick apart the stingy Atlanta defense. C Brook Lopez needs to become a two-way force, while C/PF Mason Plumlee makes the battle for rebounds competitive. PF/SF Thaddeus Young must bring his intangibles to the table: defense, rebounding, and the occasional scoring from the low block. If everything clicks and a relatively weak second unit steps up, knocking off Atlanta isn't out of the question, nor is making the Eastern Conference Finals afterwards. The road won't go further than there however, but that would be a fantastic run for such an overpaid group.
Draft Targets
Pick #29 (via Atlanta): Sam Dekker, Small Forward, Wisconsin
The Nets are pretty much in best-player-available mode at this point, but the fact that Dekker also plays small forward, their weakest position, doesn’t hurt either. Dekker is averaging 13 points on 51.5% shooting for one of the best teams in the country, while also chipping in 5.5 rebounds and a three per game. He’s a glue guy that is more effective in a smaller role and working off the ball, and that’s exactly what he would be in Brooklyn. Love the fit.
Season Predictions
Regular Season: The Nets find themselves well under .500 as we approach the stretch run of the regular season, but lucky for them, they play in the ridiculously bad Eastern Conference. Somebody has to take the last two playoff spots out East, and as the Pelicans unofrunately play in the West, Brooklyn will rise to the occasion and snag the eighth and final spot while the Miami Heat finish #7. They will be lead by an overpaid, injury-prone, and aging trio of PG Deron Williams, SG/SF Joe Johnson, and C Brook Lopez. PF/SF Thaddeus Young, recently acquired from Minnesota, and young big man C/PF Mason Plumlee will also play pivotal roles for the Nets. Although Detroit, Boston, and Indiana are all within striking distance of the last playoff spot, it’s really process of elimination that gives Brooklyn a postseason birth.
Projected Record: 37-45
Playoffs Round One
Atlanta Hawks (#1) vs. Brooklyn Nets (#8)
With all due respect to Brooklyn, as they remain a mediocre team, Atlanta could probably win this series if all their players were blindfolded and their starting five got replaced by D-Leaguers. Exaggerating, but only slightly. Though without a true superstar, Atlanta is one of the most feared teams in the league, boasting a star-studded starting lineup of PG Jeff Teague, SG Kyle Korver, SF DeMarre Carroll, PF Paul Millsap, and C Al Horford. Four all-stars this year, plus their coach, Mike Budenholzer, and that makes five. The Nets barely draw comparison. Enough said.
Series Prediction: Atlanta wins 4-0
Trade Grades
Nets get: PF/SF Thaddeus Young
Timberwolves get: PF/C Kevin Garnett
If I would've told you before the deadline that this would be the one trade that the Nets would do, you would've thought I was crazy. The Nets did not move ANY of their big contracts in C Brook Lopez, PG Deron Williams, or SG/SF Joe Johnson, despite plenty of rumors swirling on all three and Lopez in particular. Instead, the Nets added MORE money to their already gargantuan payroll with Young being due $18.9 million over the next two years. If I was grading just swapping the about-to-retire, empty tank of gas that is Kevin Garnett on an overpaid and expiring contract for a young, talented Thaddeus Young on a reasonable contract, Brooklyn would get an A+ and it's not even close. However, with the goal at this deadline being to SHED salary and not take more money back, this move is a head-scratcher from a financial point of view, despite Young's fair contract.
Grade: B
One Trade That Every Team Should Do
Brooklyn gets: PF Carl Landry, PF Derrick Williams, PF Jason Thompson, C Ryan Hollins
Sacramento gets: PG Deron Williams, C Mason Plumlee, PF Mirza Teletovic
Finances: The financial motivations for both teams in this trade are HUGE, with roughly $45 million in total contracts just this year being exchanged. Brooklyn is trying to get rid of their major salary commitments over the coming years: Williams, as well as SG Joe Johnson and C Brook Lopez, all grossly overpaid, though Lopez not as much. Williams still has $63 million remaining over three years, while
Plumlee is on the ever-cheap rookie deal, and Teletovic has a $3.4 million expiring deal, and the latter two are necessary to add in order to get the Kings to take on Williams’ awful contract. The Nets, in exchange, must take on the unsightly deals of Thompson and Landry, both of which are due roughly $21 million apiece over the next three years. Williams and Hollins, on the other hand, give the Nets a break with expiring deals worth $6.7 and $1 million, respectively. Dumping Williams’ salary is more than nice, but taking on Landry and Thompson’s deals, as well as coughing up valuable assets in Plumlee and Teletovic, is what makes this deal fair.
The Fit: These four players, all big men, will likely actually play major minutes for Brooklyn this year, especially in the probable scenario where Lopez is traded. However, Brooklyn doesn’t actually want these players, as they are just contract fill-ins for evening out Williams’ massive salary. Once their deals are up, it is unlikely that they will ever play for the Nets again, as the team continues to rebuild by clearing cap space. Losing Plumlee and Teletovic obviously hurts, but it is well worth it to get rid of Williams’ unsightly contract.
Why the other team does it: You can certainly make the case that this is just another awful move by the Kings, as this is an overpaid, inefficient, injury-prone point guard, where Darren Collison has been putting together quite a season. First of all, Williams and Collison can co-exist, as Williams can play shooting guard occasionally. While Williams is a little injury-prone and certainly overpaid, look at what Sacramento is getting in this deal. They dump both Thompson and Landry’s deals, worth about a combined $13 million annually, meaning the Kings only net a negative $7 million per year over the next three years by doing this trade, as Williams is owed $20 million this year, if that makes any sense. Teletovic, and Plumlee in particular, can easily make up for that. Teletovic is a stretch-four, averaging 1.6 threes a game, which is something the Kings have been longing for to pair with superstar C DeMarcus Cousins. Plumlee, just 24, is already averaging 10 points on a ridiculous 59% shooting, to go with 7 rebounds and a block and a steal per game. In addition Williams does add some value to help close that $7 million gap, with averages of 13 points and 1.5 threes, though on a dismal 38.5% shooting, but adding 6 assists and a steal a game. Alineup featuring Williams, Collison, young SG’s Ben McLemore and Nik Stauskas, SF Rudy Gay, Teletovic, Plumlee, and Cousins could legitimately compete for a playoff spot, even out West.
State of the Franchise
Projected Cap Space (before luxury tax): $0 million
Background: It may seem like ages ago, but it was only the 2012 free agency when the Brooklyn Nets put together likely the worst offseason of all time, one that still haunts them today and will continue to do so until PG Deron Williams’ contract comes off the books in three years. Williams, considered possibly the best point guard in the league at the time, was debating between re-signing with the Brooklyn Nets (then in New Jersey) or signing with the Mavericks in his hometown of Dallas. Unfortunately for the Nets, he decided to sign a 5 year/$98 million max deal, and even worse, the Nets took it. But as if ruining the future of the franchise for the next five years wasn’t enough, the Nets had to make sure they completely messed it up. They made sure they were unable to spend a single penny for the next four years while not being the least bit competitive. They traded many key role players, SG Anthony Morrow and SF DeShawn Stevenson among them, and a draft pick for SG Joe Johnson’s 4 year/$90 million contract from the Atlanta Hawks. Johnson’s combination of lack of talent and horrible contract made him one of those guys that you dump off on another team along with draft picks and get nothing in return, but the Nets still coughed up a first rounder. In addition, Gerald Wallace, now one of the worst players in the NBA, was signed to a 4 year/$40 million deal, and injury-prone center Brook Lopez was signed to a 4 year/$60 million pact. Keep in mind that the payroll limit before the luxury tax is $76.8 million, even lower back then, and the Nets spent $67 million on these four players alone. An NBA roster consists of 13-15 players, and nobody can be signed for less than $940,000, and those are the very worst players in the NBA. You do the math. In addition, all of these contracts ran for at least four years, and not one of these players even produced half of what they signed for on the court. But the Nets weren’t done ruining their future. The following offseason, they dealt three first round picks (2014, 2016, and 2018) to the Boston Celtics as well as several key role players in exchange for PF Kevin Garnett, SF Paul Pierce, and SG Jason Terry, though they did dump Wallace’s contract on Boston. Those three first-rounders could have been used to dump Williams’ contract on someone, and perhaps even Johnson’s deal as well. This decision allowed the Nets to put together an all-washed-up-and-injury-prone starting five of Williams, Johnson, Pierce, Garnett, and Lopez in 2013-2014, though these five did have 35 all-star appearances between them. However, the season did not go as the front office had planned. The Nets, despite an NBA-record $101 million plus payroll, finished at just 44-38 and the sixth seed in the weak Eastern Conference, and were eliminated in the second round by the Miami Heat. That summer, Pierce left in free agency simply because the Nets could not afford to pay him, nor could they afford to find a replacement. With their hands tied financially and no infusion of talent coming anytime soon from the draft due to a lack of picks, it will be a long time before Brooklyn is competitive again.
Current Financial State: With over $76 million committed already in contracts next year, the Brooklyn Nets are already at the luxury tax. Of that $76 million, $63 million of it is committed to Williams, Johnson, and Lopez, with Garnett’s $12 million coming off the books this year. However, the Nets are actively shopping all three of their big contracts, eagerly attempting to find any takers. For now, however, the Nets are very tied down financially. Don’t expect any major newcomers in Brooklyn until these contracts expire.
Targets: Anybody. Literally anybody in a trade, as Brooklyn cannot sign anybody in free agency with their current cap dilemma. Their targets are written as they are because the Nets are trying to trade away the contracts of Lopez, Williams, and Johnson, and they should and will take anybody necessary to get rid of these three players, as long as the incomers have a short term contract. The Nets are trying to trade these contracts because owner Mikhail Prokhorov is trying to sell the team, and reducing the check another owner has to write would make purchasing the Nets all the more attractive. This is a shame, because the one aspect the Nets really did have going for them was Prokhorov’s willingness to pay the hefty luxury tax bill. Brook Lopez, in particular, is drawing actual interest from several teams, including the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Denver Nuggets, and the Miami Heat, a team that has been in the market for a center for quite a few years now. Any contracts that the Nets would have to take back in order to get rid of Lopez are worth it in this situation. The Kings had rumored interest in Williams, but talks have died down as of late. The main issue with any of these trades, even assuming a team was willing to take on one of these contracts, is making the money work. It’s hard to even out $20 million plus in a trade, especially when the Nets aren’t trying to get any long-term deals. However, the Lakers have a variety of expiring deals this year that they could use to acquire one of these players, while the Kings do not. One trade that could work is as follows: The Lakers send the large expiring contracts of PG’s Steve Nash and Jeremy Lin, as well as Ryan Kelly’s small 2 year/$3.5 million deal. The Nets would in turn be able to send PG Deron Williams. Of course, the Nets would need to add some sort of sweetener to make this deal work, and without any picks to give (thanks, Pierce and Garnett), it would have to be outstanding second year Duke product, C Mason Plumlee. Plumlee is one of the few young talents the Nets have, but that’s the price you must pay to get rid of Williams and his contract. From the Nets’ perspective, this trade makes sense. They get rid of Williams’ contract while taking on no long-term deals, other than Kelly’s small contract that carries into next year. Losing Plumlee hurts, but it is well worth it. From the Lakers perspective, Williams’ contract runs past the loaded 2016 free agent class, but Plumlee more than compensates for that. Averaging 10 points on 59% shooting as well as 7 rebounds and a block per game, Plumlee could pair nicely with rookie PF Julius Randle for a potential frontcourt of the future in LA. Brooklyn could really use a break after what it has been through the past couple of off-seasons , and this is a prime opportunity for one.
The Fit: Well, ummm… hmmm. This is a tough one. As the Nets’ targets are “anybody”, it is hard to necessarily say how that fits on the basketball court. Of course, the Nets overall would be a worse team this season as a result of, say that trade with the Lakers, but it will no doubt help them in the long run. Guys like Lin and Nash would fight for minutes at point guard along with PG Jarrett Jack. The Nets would have no interest in keeping around either of these point guards long term, as they both come off the books next year. Kelly is sort of redundant with PF Mirza Teletovic, so he also does not figure to have a long-term role with the franchise. Remember, the only reason these guys are in the trade is for salary cap purposes, and to even out the $20+ million contract of Williams annually. Getting rid of Lopez and perhaps Johnson do seem like genuine possibilities, as the former has garnered interest from Miami, Denver, and Oklahoma City, while the latter has turned heads in Charlotte and might be a good fit in New Orleans. Good luck getting rid of those contracts, Brooklyn. You’re going to need it.
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