Backcourt starter: Russell Westbrook (PG, OKC)
Backcourt starter: James Harden (SG/PG, HOU)
Frontcourt starter: Kawhi Leonard (SF/SG, SA)
Frontcourt starter: Kevin Durant (SF/PF, GSW)
Frontcourt starter: Anthony Davis (PF/C, NOP)
This one was a no-brainer: it was completely ridiculous that Stephen Curry got the nod as the West's starting point guard this year over Westbrook. In fact, Durant, Davis, Leonard, and Harden (in that order) constitute the two-through-five spots on the PER rankings thus far this season.
Guess who's number one?
And guess who's number 17?
Even pointing to the Warriors' superior record than that of the Thunder fails to help Curry's case here -- Russ ranks second in Estimated Wins Added with 15.0 (just behind Harden) while Curry checks in at fifteenth in the NBA at 10.1.
Even though Steph isn't playing quite like a back-to-back-MVP this season, that doesn't mean that he should be off of this list entirely; rather, his stats have more than earned him a spot on the West reserves for this season's numbers. Still, the point stands that it's absurd to give him the honor of the West's starting point guard over someone averaging a triple-double.
All right. Enough on that. Onto the reserves.
Reserve: Stephen Curry (PG, GSW) [replacing Russell Westbrook]
Reserve: DeMarcus Cousins (C, SAC)
This was tricky and required a few tough calls, I'm not going to lie. The only two uber-obvious decisions were that of DeMarcus -- 27.05 PER (seventh in league) and 12.5 EWA (sixth) -- and Curry (leftover from swapping him out of the starters for Russ), whose still-impressive statistics I detailed above. Cousins and Steph should be the first guys off the bench on February 19th.
Reserve: Chris Paul (PG, LAC) [replacing Klay Thompson]
Injury Replacement: Damian Lillard (PG, POR)
But like I said, the rest is difficult, and starts with the question: who should replace Klay Thompson? Indeed, that is the proper way to phrase the question, as Thompson's 15.76 PER (109th in NBA) and lackluster 107.8 Offensive Rating (measures an individual's efficiency at producing points for his team's offense) which ranks 102nd in the league should not even merely warrant consideration for placement in the All-Star Game.
I figured that I had to replace Klay with a guard in order to keep the West's roster balanced, and who more deserving than CP3? He ranks sixth in the NBA in PER at 27.40 and eleventh in EWA at 9.1. Furthermore, Paul has well established himself as a two-way force in this league, posting the best combination of Offensive Rating (127.0 -- 4th in NBA) and Defensive Rating (100.4 -- sixth in NBA) of any player thus far this season not named Rudy Gobert (more on him soon). The Clipper likely missed the final cut, however, due to his current injury status, and the general (and somewhat understandable) voter bias against injured players (unless your name is Kobe Bryant, of course).
Nonetheless, there is of course a great deal of honor associated with being selected for the ASG, and it was only fair to give Paul his spot, as another deserving player would be able to tally an All-Star to their resume as his injury replacement. And that deserving player is Blazers point guard Damian Lillard. 'Dame' is indeed a fine choice, with a PER mark of 22.89 (14th in NBA) and an Estimated Wins Added of 9.3 (tenth). Lillard would (and should) make it to his third All-Star game and as an injury replacement for now two of those occasions.
Reserve: Gordon Hayward (SG/SF, UTA)
I was going back and forth on replacing Hayward here, but decided to put him here over other worthy All-Star challengers actually largely due to the position that he plays -- there's simply a lack of wing depth in the West. If I had my way, and I could contsruct an impractical Western Conference roster regardless of position, I'd have put five centers on my bench. But alas, only four.
That said, Hayward is the best Western wing player that isn't starting, and that's no title to be laughed at. The Butler product boasts a 22.03 PER -- 28th in basketball -- to go with an 8.4 EWA (T-22nd). He's finally developed into an all-around stud at the highest level, featuring an Offensive Rating and True Shooting Percentage that each rank 28th in the NBA, while also improving on defense with the league's 33rd best Defensive Rating. Hayward's leadership has pulled his Jazz to a 30-19 (0.612) record, good for fifth in the West and eighth in basketball.
Reserve: Rudy Gobert (C, UTA) [replacing Draymond Green]
There were quite a few big men competing for these last few spots, but honestly, none are more deserving than the outstanding and unfortunately often-underappreciated (this season at least) Rudy Gobert. Gobert has absolutely dominated at all facets of the game thus far this season: he's posted the third highest Offensive Rating (128.0) in basketball; the very highest Defensive Rating (97.8) -- which, according to basketball nerds like myself, technically qualifies him for DPOY, but that's a separate discussion; also the highest True Shooting Percentage (0.682 -- and by a wide margin at that); and that's not to mention him ranking sixth in Rebounding Percentage (21.5%) [an estimate of the total rebounds available that a player grabs while on the floor] and second in Block Percentage (6.1%) [an estimate of the total blocked shots a player has compared to the amount of two-pointers that the other team attempts] in the entire NBA. That's Defensive Player of the Year numbers if I'v ever seen 'em, while Gobert simultaneously proves to be one of the most efficient players on offense as well. As to the (allegedly) uber-cumulative metrics, the Jazz center ranks 16th in the league with an EWA of 9.4, and 26th with a 22.08 PER, though the latter statistic is notorious for not being particularly kind to big men. All told, however, Gobert is -- rather, must be -- an All-Star. Period.
Draymond Green, on the other hand -- and I don't mean to sound disrespectful in any way -- but the only reason why I even have to discuss him here at all (similar to Klay) is because his team is good. Although (as I noted above) not a perfect metric, PER is nice in that it quickly gives you a general idea as to where a player stands, and Draymond stands with the league's 78th-best PER at 17.23; his EWA at 4.4 sits hardly better at 59th in basketball. Granted, a closer look at the numbers aids Green's cause: he's remained elite on defense, tying for basketball's second-best Defensive rating at 99.1 and has improved his Offensive Rating up to 53rd in the NBA. Still, his offense remains sub-par, and that Offensive Rating coupled with his miserly 0.537 TS% would make him far and away the worst offensive player at the All-Star Game (with the actual rosters or with my own). Sure, Green is a perfect all-around glue guy for the star-studded Warriors that helps them win games (and championships) a great deal, but the All-Star selection process is (or at least, should be) all about the individual. Gobert > Green on those given standards any day.
Reserve: Karl Anthony-Towns (C/PF, MIN) [replacing Marc Gasol]
Reserve: DeAndre Jordan (C, LAC)
For me, the last two spots on the West's bench ultimately came down to three centers: Marc Gasol, DeAndre Jordan (who are the actual All-Stars), and Karl Anthony-Towns.
Towns ranks 20th in the NBA with a 23.39 PER and 13th with an 11.1 EWA.
Gasol ranks 32nd with a 21.75 PER and 18th with a 9.1 EWA.
Jordan ranks 37th with a 21.06 PER and 26th with an 8.0 EWA.
Of course, these are not the only two metrics that quantitatively summarize a player's value, but these given numbers are decent indications that often, the voters get these decisions wrong (remember: Gasol and Jordan were the actual All-Stars chosen). If only they just let me do the whole thing...
In Offensive Rating (amount of points a player produces per 100 possessions), it's no contest: DeAndre, at 126.6, boasts the league's fifth-highest ORTG (Towns is 57th, Gasol 66th). It's essentially a perfect metric for measuring a player's offensive efficiency, only that is measures exactly that -- only efficiency while failing to account for volume; there's a reason why seven of the top twelve players on the ORTG list have a USG% (percent of team plays used by a player while he's on the floor) of 17.2% or lower [for reference, Westbrook leads the NBA in USG% with 42.1%; nearly all All-Stars have a USG% of at least in the high-twenties]. Take that as you will, but the point still stands that DeAndre is producing at a much higher rate than his counterparts here when his team goes to him. That definitely counts for something.
Defensive Rating, however, is arguably a much more telling statistic than its ORTG counterpart, accurately summarizing a player's defensive value by calculating the amount of points allowed per 100 possessions. In this metric, DeAndre ranks ninth at 101.5, Gasol 20th at 112.7, and Towns 65th at 107.0. At this point, Jordan had clearly established himself to me as a two-way force, ranking fifth and ninth in ORTG and DRTG respectively; his second-in-the-league TS% was simply the nail in the coffin to convince me that the Clipper is worthy of his first All-Star selection. Now... Towns or Gasol?
It's a very tough call, and -- I don't usually say this -- but you can viably argue either way. If you are (not groundlessly) distrustful of all-inclusive metrics such as PER and EWA as mentioned above, then you would probably be inclined to go with Gasol just due to the sure-thing status of his superior DRTG. Also, if you care about team success when selecting All-Stars, Gasol's Grizzlies are 29-21 (0.580) on the season, while Towns' Timberwolves are 19-29 (0.396) thus far.
But I do have (cautious) faith in statistics such as PER and EWA, or else I wouldn't have relied on them so heavily when making decisions throughout this segment. Defending cumulative metrics and others like it is beyond the scope of this article of course, but generally if the difference is as large as it was noted above, using "the cumulatives" is probably a safe bet as a very general rule.
Also, it's hard to ignore a 21-year-old averaging 23 points and 12 rebounds. The basketball world has been put on notice and better watch out... KAT is coming for you.
Backcourt starter: James Harden (SG/PG, HOU)
Frontcourt starter: Kawhi Leonard (SF/SG, SA)
Frontcourt starter: Kevin Durant (SF/PF, GSW)
Frontcourt starter: Anthony Davis (PF/C, NOP)
This one was a no-brainer: it was completely ridiculous that Stephen Curry got the nod as the West's starting point guard this year over Westbrook. In fact, Durant, Davis, Leonard, and Harden (in that order) constitute the two-through-five spots on the PER rankings thus far this season.
Guess who's number one?
And guess who's number 17?
Even pointing to the Warriors' superior record than that of the Thunder fails to help Curry's case here -- Russ ranks second in Estimated Wins Added with 15.0 (just behind Harden) while Curry checks in at fifteenth in the NBA at 10.1.
Even though Steph isn't playing quite like a back-to-back-MVP this season, that doesn't mean that he should be off of this list entirely; rather, his stats have more than earned him a spot on the West reserves for this season's numbers. Still, the point stands that it's absurd to give him the honor of the West's starting point guard over someone averaging a triple-double.
All right. Enough on that. Onto the reserves.
Reserve: Stephen Curry (PG, GSW) [replacing Russell Westbrook]
Reserve: DeMarcus Cousins (C, SAC)
This was tricky and required a few tough calls, I'm not going to lie. The only two uber-obvious decisions were that of DeMarcus -- 27.05 PER (seventh in league) and 12.5 EWA (sixth) -- and Curry (leftover from swapping him out of the starters for Russ), whose still-impressive statistics I detailed above. Cousins and Steph should be the first guys off the bench on February 19th.
Reserve: Chris Paul (PG, LAC) [replacing Klay Thompson]
Injury Replacement: Damian Lillard (PG, POR)
But like I said, the rest is difficult, and starts with the question: who should replace Klay Thompson? Indeed, that is the proper way to phrase the question, as Thompson's 15.76 PER (109th in NBA) and lackluster 107.8 Offensive Rating (measures an individual's efficiency at producing points for his team's offense) which ranks 102nd in the league should not even merely warrant consideration for placement in the All-Star Game.
I figured that I had to replace Klay with a guard in order to keep the West's roster balanced, and who more deserving than CP3? He ranks sixth in the NBA in PER at 27.40 and eleventh in EWA at 9.1. Furthermore, Paul has well established himself as a two-way force in this league, posting the best combination of Offensive Rating (127.0 -- 4th in NBA) and Defensive Rating (100.4 -- sixth in NBA) of any player thus far this season not named Rudy Gobert (more on him soon). The Clipper likely missed the final cut, however, due to his current injury status, and the general (and somewhat understandable) voter bias against injured players (unless your name is Kobe Bryant, of course).
Nonetheless, there is of course a great deal of honor associated with being selected for the ASG, and it was only fair to give Paul his spot, as another deserving player would be able to tally an All-Star to their resume as his injury replacement. And that deserving player is Blazers point guard Damian Lillard. 'Dame' is indeed a fine choice, with a PER mark of 22.89 (14th in NBA) and an Estimated Wins Added of 9.3 (tenth). Lillard would (and should) make it to his third All-Star game and as an injury replacement for now two of those occasions.
Reserve: Gordon Hayward (SG/SF, UTA)
I was going back and forth on replacing Hayward here, but decided to put him here over other worthy All-Star challengers actually largely due to the position that he plays -- there's simply a lack of wing depth in the West. If I had my way, and I could contsruct an impractical Western Conference roster regardless of position, I'd have put five centers on my bench. But alas, only four.
That said, Hayward is the best Western wing player that isn't starting, and that's no title to be laughed at. The Butler product boasts a 22.03 PER -- 28th in basketball -- to go with an 8.4 EWA (T-22nd). He's finally developed into an all-around stud at the highest level, featuring an Offensive Rating and True Shooting Percentage that each rank 28th in the NBA, while also improving on defense with the league's 33rd best Defensive Rating. Hayward's leadership has pulled his Jazz to a 30-19 (0.612) record, good for fifth in the West and eighth in basketball.
Reserve: Rudy Gobert (C, UTA) [replacing Draymond Green]
There were quite a few big men competing for these last few spots, but honestly, none are more deserving than the outstanding and unfortunately often-underappreciated (this season at least) Rudy Gobert. Gobert has absolutely dominated at all facets of the game thus far this season: he's posted the third highest Offensive Rating (128.0) in basketball; the very highest Defensive Rating (97.8) -- which, according to basketball nerds like myself, technically qualifies him for DPOY, but that's a separate discussion; also the highest True Shooting Percentage (0.682 -- and by a wide margin at that); and that's not to mention him ranking sixth in Rebounding Percentage (21.5%) [an estimate of the total rebounds available that a player grabs while on the floor] and second in Block Percentage (6.1%) [an estimate of the total blocked shots a player has compared to the amount of two-pointers that the other team attempts] in the entire NBA. That's Defensive Player of the Year numbers if I'v ever seen 'em, while Gobert simultaneously proves to be one of the most efficient players on offense as well. As to the (allegedly) uber-cumulative metrics, the Jazz center ranks 16th in the league with an EWA of 9.4, and 26th with a 22.08 PER, though the latter statistic is notorious for not being particularly kind to big men. All told, however, Gobert is -- rather, must be -- an All-Star. Period.
Draymond Green, on the other hand -- and I don't mean to sound disrespectful in any way -- but the only reason why I even have to discuss him here at all (similar to Klay) is because his team is good. Although (as I noted above) not a perfect metric, PER is nice in that it quickly gives you a general idea as to where a player stands, and Draymond stands with the league's 78th-best PER at 17.23; his EWA at 4.4 sits hardly better at 59th in basketball. Granted, a closer look at the numbers aids Green's cause: he's remained elite on defense, tying for basketball's second-best Defensive rating at 99.1 and has improved his Offensive Rating up to 53rd in the NBA. Still, his offense remains sub-par, and that Offensive Rating coupled with his miserly 0.537 TS% would make him far and away the worst offensive player at the All-Star Game (with the actual rosters or with my own). Sure, Green is a perfect all-around glue guy for the star-studded Warriors that helps them win games (and championships) a great deal, but the All-Star selection process is (or at least, should be) all about the individual. Gobert > Green on those given standards any day.
Reserve: Karl Anthony-Towns (C/PF, MIN) [replacing Marc Gasol]
Reserve: DeAndre Jordan (C, LAC)
For me, the last two spots on the West's bench ultimately came down to three centers: Marc Gasol, DeAndre Jordan (who are the actual All-Stars), and Karl Anthony-Towns.
Towns ranks 20th in the NBA with a 23.39 PER and 13th with an 11.1 EWA.
Gasol ranks 32nd with a 21.75 PER and 18th with a 9.1 EWA.
Jordan ranks 37th with a 21.06 PER and 26th with an 8.0 EWA.
Of course, these are not the only two metrics that quantitatively summarize a player's value, but these given numbers are decent indications that often, the voters get these decisions wrong (remember: Gasol and Jordan were the actual All-Stars chosen). If only they just let me do the whole thing...
In Offensive Rating (amount of points a player produces per 100 possessions), it's no contest: DeAndre, at 126.6, boasts the league's fifth-highest ORTG (Towns is 57th, Gasol 66th). It's essentially a perfect metric for measuring a player's offensive efficiency, only that is measures exactly that -- only efficiency while failing to account for volume; there's a reason why seven of the top twelve players on the ORTG list have a USG% (percent of team plays used by a player while he's on the floor) of 17.2% or lower [for reference, Westbrook leads the NBA in USG% with 42.1%; nearly all All-Stars have a USG% of at least in the high-twenties]. Take that as you will, but the point still stands that DeAndre is producing at a much higher rate than his counterparts here when his team goes to him. That definitely counts for something.
Defensive Rating, however, is arguably a much more telling statistic than its ORTG counterpart, accurately summarizing a player's defensive value by calculating the amount of points allowed per 100 possessions. In this metric, DeAndre ranks ninth at 101.5, Gasol 20th at 112.7, and Towns 65th at 107.0. At this point, Jordan had clearly established himself to me as a two-way force, ranking fifth and ninth in ORTG and DRTG respectively; his second-in-the-league TS% was simply the nail in the coffin to convince me that the Clipper is worthy of his first All-Star selection. Now... Towns or Gasol?
It's a very tough call, and -- I don't usually say this -- but you can viably argue either way. If you are (not groundlessly) distrustful of all-inclusive metrics such as PER and EWA as mentioned above, then you would probably be inclined to go with Gasol just due to the sure-thing status of his superior DRTG. Also, if you care about team success when selecting All-Stars, Gasol's Grizzlies are 29-21 (0.580) on the season, while Towns' Timberwolves are 19-29 (0.396) thus far.
But I do have (cautious) faith in statistics such as PER and EWA, or else I wouldn't have relied on them so heavily when making decisions throughout this segment. Defending cumulative metrics and others like it is beyond the scope of this article of course, but generally if the difference is as large as it was noted above, using "the cumulatives" is probably a safe bet as a very general rule.
Also, it's hard to ignore a 21-year-old averaging 23 points and 12 rebounds. The basketball world has been put on notice and better watch out... KAT is coming for you.
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